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With Biden out, can Kamala Harris defeat Trump?
Jon Lieber, Eurasia Group's head of research and managing director for the firm's coverage of United States political and policy developments, shares his perspective on US politics from Washington, DC.
What we're watching in US Politics: Biden is out of the presidential race, and it looks like Kamala Harris will replace him. The big question: How would she do against Donald Trump?
Joe Biden's out.
An unprecedented development is that the likely nominee for one of the two major parties has dropped out of the race with only a month to go before the Democratic conventions. The big question is who's going to replace him? And the obvious answer is Kamala Harris.
She's already picked up the endorsement of former President Bill Clinton and Secretary of State Hillary Clinton. President Obama put out a statement saying that he would support whoever the nominee is and is looking forward to a convention to work this out, but that's probably just an indication that he wants this to look competitive. Harris herself put out a statement saying she's looking forward to earning the trust of everybody in the Democratic Party. But you also have luminaries like Jim Clyburn who are already endorsing Harris, and you're unlikely to see competitors like California Governor Gavin Newsom or Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer appear on the stage anytime soon. So Harris is probably going to replace Biden.
How does she do against Donald Trump?
Well, that's the big wild card in this election, her favorability is basically where Joe Biden's was in the high 30s, which is a bad place to be if you're going to get elected, but Donald Trump isn't that popular himself. Harris also faces the baggage of being the successor to an incumbent running for that incumbent seat. And unpopular incumbents tend not to do a great job passing on their seat to their successor. Harris hasn't really done anything to distinguish herself in four years of running her own presidential campaign or serving as vice president. She's kind of been relegated to a D-list of policy issues that she hasn't done much to effect, and the Democratic Party has a lot of other people who could probably be more competitive if they had time to run a primary process, but they don't. Harris does bring new energy to the campaign and has the ability to unite the Democratic Party behind her. However, Trump just does better on the top issues in this campaign, which are inflation, the economy, and immigration.
Stay tuned for more of what we're watching in US politics during this wild election year. Thanks.
Extremists vs. moderates: The real divide in US politics
In a lively exchange for the latest episode of GZERO World, Ian Bremmer and media journalist Brian Stelter delve into the true nature of political divisions in the United States. Stelter argues that the real divides are not simply between Democrats and Republicans but between extremists and moderates. He emphasizes that "most people, whether they vote Republican or vote Democrat, denounce political violence... they want a stable political system."
Stelter calls these moderates the "great silent majority," but they are overshadowed by the vocal extremists on both ends of the political spectrum. "I wish it was possible to make the normies, the people in the middle, the moderates, more visible, to make their voices louder."
Bremmer and Stelter also discuss the unifying aspects of American society, suggesting that despite apparent divisions, there is significant common ground among the general populace. "Most Americans,” Stelter adds, “have a lot more in common than they realize." And what they have in common, most of all, is a desire to end this constant political chaos.
Watch the full episode: Trump, Biden & the US election: What could be next?
Season 7 of GZERO World with Ian Bremmer, the award-winning weekly global affairs series, launches nationwide on public television stations (check local listings).
New digital episodes of GZERO World are released every Monday on YouTube. Don''t miss an episode: subscribe to GZERO's YouTube channel and turn on notifications (🔔).
RNC shows how Trump has transformed GOP
Jon Lieber, Eurasia Group's head of research and managing director for the firm's coverage of United States political and policy developments, shares his perspective on US politics from Washington, DC.
What we're watching in US Politics this week: Trump's utter dominance of the GOP at the just-concluded convention.
So the Republican convention just wrapped up and a very different tone and style of the last several conventions. And particularly, you know, you were knocked out in 1992 and woke up today, you probably wouldn't recognize this Republican Party at all.
And that's because of the total dominance of Donald J Trump in the party now, which was really exemplified by his choice of a vice president. JD Vance, very young, senator from Ohio, wasn't an elected official as of two years ago and is likely to be the next vice president of the United States. Contrast this to Mike Pence, Trump's pick in 2016, who was a long-standing conservative but establishment Republican that helped Trump shore up his weaknesses at the time with evangelical voters.
Today, Trump doesn't really have any weaknesses in the Republican Party. He is their leader. He's their most popular person. He just survived an assassination attempt. And you saw that affect all over there of the Republican National Convention this week, particularly when it came to issues like trade and immigration, where the party has taken a significantly tougher line than ever has before and has moved in a significantly more nationalist and populist direction. Contrast this to the George W Bush era, or the era of even the last two speakers, prior to Kevin McCarthy, Paul Ryan, and John Boehner, neither of whom were major presences at this convention. Just to show you how far the Republican Party has moved from its roots, even from the pre-Trump days.
Another unusual thing about the convention was that last night before Trump's speech, it was wrestling day. Hulk Hogan showed up, and Linda McMahon showed up. Dana White, the president of UFC, showed up, the Ultimate Fighting Championship. You don't expect to see these people at political conventions. But what they really reflect is kind of the heart and soul of the Trump campaign. Hulkamania is a throwback to the 1990s. And Dana White represents a demographic that Trump is hoping to make central to his political movement, which is young men. And young white men, young Hispanic men, and young black men are all groups that Trump is doing very well with and probably will be one of the keys to his victories in the fall if he wins.
You wouldn't expect any convention bounce coming out of this. Convention bounces are a little bit of a thing of the past. And Trump was really speaking to his base last night in a very long, rambling, rally-style speech. Not what you normally expect on primetime TV.
Donanld Trump at the RNC
| USA TODAY NETWORK |
RNC wrap-up: Trump's speech and the GOP's evolving identity
On the fourth and final night of the RNC, Donald Trump took to the stage for the first time since he was nearly assassinated at a campaign rally. He began his speech with a detailed, dramatic retelling of the shooting, in which he was saved by God, in the style of a grandfather telling their grandchild a war story at bedtime. Members of the audience cried, he kissed the firefighter uniform of Corey Comperatore, who was killed by the assassin. He called for unity.
"The discord and division in our society must be healed. As Americans, we are bound together by a single fate and a shared destiny. We rise together. Or we fall apart," said Trump, who went on to say that he was running to be president for "all of America, not half of America."
But Trump’s sedate and sentimental calls for harmony quickly evaporated, giving way to his more standard attacks on Democrats. “They’re destroying our country,” he said. Trump also repeatedly claimed that the Democrats stole the 2020 election, saying “they used COVID to cheat.” (For a deep dive into the stolen election conspiracy theory, check this out.)
And he went on. And on. And on. For more than an hour and a half – the longest nomination acceptance speech on record – he described meanderingly, an economy in shambles, a murderous job-stealing invasion of illegal immigrants, and a world on fire: all courtesy of Joe Biden, all fixable only by Donald Trump. When he concluded – nearly half an hour after first saying “in conclusion” – many of even the most faithful Trumpers in the room were reportedly fidgety.
Still, every party convention is a jamboree for its candidate, and in the wake of Trump’s near-death experience, this convention has had an almost-religious, over-the-top zeal. From the MAGA outfits (seriously, you need to look at the dresses), to Hulk Hogan tearing off his shirt to reveal a Trump/Vance tank top, and Trump repeatedly claiming that he survived the attack only because he “had God on [his] side” the final night cemented the impression of Trump as a kind of divinely protected figure, even a deity in his own right.
This is a changed Republican party. Traditional establishment figures like Mitch McConnell got a mild reception, while MAGA figures, regardless of whether they have a political background, were enthusiastically embraced – none more than Trump’s Veep pick, JD Vance.
The one thing Republicans avoided talking about. Speakers hammered Biden on inflation, immigration, and foreign policy. But one thing they didn’t talk much about was abortion. Despite Roe v Wade’s demise being one of the crowning achievements of the Trump presidency, abortion has barely received a passing mention, likely because the party recognizes that it is a divisive and politically toxic issue. Even JD Vance, an absolutist on restricting abortion, has stayed silent on the issue during the convention.
It's also another sign of the changing nature of the party. Abortion was once a rallying force within the GOP, but is now the latest example of how the Republican Party is departing from decades of party orthodoxy as it undergoes a historic realignment to woo younger, more diverse, and working-class voters.
Election 2024: Are American allies worried about the US presidential election?
What do NATO allies think of conversations among US voters about President Biden’s age and ability to serve a second term? Are they worried a second Trump presidency will negatively impact the war in Ukraine? On GZERO World, Ian Bremmer sat with Polish Foreign Minister Radek Sikorski on the sidelines of NATO’s 75th-anniversary summit in DC for his take on a potential second Biden or Trump administration. Sikorksi says Poland will have a partner and ally in whoever ends up in the Oval Office.
“Once you start interfering in the internal party, political affairs of other countries, you’re on a very slippery slope,” Sikorski warns, “Poland wants to have the best possible relations with the US, whoever is your president goes without saying.”
Despite concerns from Democratic voters about Biden’s stamina and cognitive abilities, Sikorski says that at a recent summit, he found Biden “focused, strategic, and actually quite amusing.” He also notes that the Polish government has good relations with both candidates and disputes the idea that a second Trump term would limit further US aid to Ukraine. He concedes that Donald Trump was right on many issues, like the necessity of all NATO members to meet requirements for defense spending. Ultimately, Trump responds to strength and power, and accepting defeat or a settlement on Putin’s terms in Ukraine may not align with the image he wants to project on the global stage.
Watch the full episode: Ukraine can still win this war, says Poland's FM
Season 7 of GZERO World with Ian Bremmer, the award-winning weekly global affairs series, launches nationwide on public television stations (check local listings).
New digital episodes of GZERO World are released every Monday on YouTube. Don''t miss an episode: subscribe to GZERO's YouTube channel and turn on notifications (🔔).
JD VANCE
Trump picks JD Vance as running mate on day one of the RNC
Two days after an attempt on his life at a rally in Pennsylvania, Donald Trump officially became his party’s nominee on the first day of the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee, WI.
On the RNC stage, speakers painted the former president as a hero, a survivor, and a martyr. “On Saturday, the devil came to Pennsylvania holding a rifle,” said South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott, “but an American lion got back up on his feet, and he roared! Oh yeah! He roared!”
The day was filled with surprises, from the dismissal of one of Trump’s federal indictments to the former president naming JD Vance his vice presidential pick two days earlier than expected. Trump himself even made an unexpected appearance – ear bandage and all – at the event.
On the policy front, the RNC’s first day, themed “Make America Wealthy Again,” introduced the party’s economic platform. Speakers hammered Biden for high prices and Mike Waltz, co-chair of the platform committee, said that the Trump campaign would focus on helping "the forgotten men and women of America," by “unleashing American energy” and “sending a cruise missile into the heart of inflation.”Scottand others blamed illegal immigration for “crushing American workers.”
Teamsters Union President Sean O’Brien did not endorse the ticket but still received the most speaking time onstage, which he used to call for labor reform law and to attack big businesses and corporate lobby groups for “waging a war against American workers” – rhetoric that would have been unheard of before Trump steered the party toward the working class. O’Brien has hinted he may not endorse either candidate, which would be a big loss for Union Joe.
Meanwhile, Vance, the junior senator from Ohio and author of the best-selling memoir “Hillbilly Elegy,” basked in the spotlight.
Vance was once a self-described “Never-Trumper” who believed that Trump was “leading the white working class to a very dark place.” But he has since become a vocal supporter of the former president. He supports raising tariffs and the minimum wage to empower the working class, wants to boost oil and gas production, and supports a nationwide 15-week abortion ban but also access to mifepristone, a medication used to end pregnancy.
On foreign policy, he’s been an outspoken advocate of cutting aid to Ukraine. If elected, Vance told Fox’s Sean Hannity last night that the administration “will bring this thing to a rapid close” by negotiating with Russia, rather than furthering the war effort for Ukraine. (Click here to watch what Eurasia Group's US director Jon Lieber has to say about the pick.)
By choosing a populist conservative like Vance over other potential nominees, such as multimillionaire North Dakota Gov.Doug Burgum, Sen. Tim Scott, or New York Rep. Elise Stefanik, Trump seems to be doubling down on securing the support of white working-class voters. He decided not to use the Veep pick, in other words, to make deeper inroads with moderate, suburban, non-white, or female constituencies.
The Democrats are already trying to use that choice to their advantage. Joe Biden’s campaign adviser Jen O’Malley Dillon said on a call with reporters that Vance would “bend over backward to enable Trump and his extreme MAGA agenda, even if it means breaking the law.”
Following the shooting over the weekend, Vance went further than even Trump himself, directly blaming Biden’s rhetoric and his campaign for the violence. In anX post, he wrote, “The central premise of the Biden campaign is that President Donald Trump is an authoritarian fascist who must be stopped at all costs. That rhetoric led directly to President Trump’s attempted assassination.”
The precise motive of the shooter is currently under investigation by the FBI, which gained access to his phone only on Monday. But some Republicans have echoed Vance’s sentiment, pointing to an instance last week when Biden said to donors “We’re done talking about the debate. It’s time to put Trump in a bullseye.”
In an interview with Lester Holt Monday night, Biden said the comment was a mistake that aged poorly. He tried to steer the conversation toward his opponent’s incendiary rhetoric, like his comments in the run-up to Jan. 6, 2021, or following the 2017 Charlottesville rally of white supremacists, to argue that Trump is a threat to democracy.
He also made no indication he was thinking about stepping down and urged the media to stop talking about his age – a wish that may be granted this week as Americans turn their attention to the remaining three days of the RNC. Tuesday's theme is “Make America Safe Once Again” and will focus on crime, immigration, and drug trafficking.
After Trump attack, will the US unite?
Ian Bremmer's Quick Take: Hi, everybody. Ian Bremmer here and a quick take to kick off your week. Still talking very much about the United States, the elections, the assassination attempt on former President Trump. We now have the Republican National Convention kicking off in Milwaukee. And is it possible that anything good can come from this most tragic event and very close to a world changing event?
I wish I could say yes. I certainly was heartened to see in the initial hours after the attack that the president of the United States strongly condemned it, called for unity, a very nonpartisan statement, pulled down campaign ads and stopped with planned events for the president and vice president. This is no time to be campaigning. I saw the speaker of the House, Mike Johnson, did the same in a statement that he made publicly a few hours later. And it's good to hear from former President Trump, that he is changing his speech and wants it to be a less divisive and a more unifying speech.
All of that sounds promising, and there is an opportunity here. But I'm skeptical. I'm skeptical. I think that the divisions in the country are too deep, and the weaponization and of the politics has come from inside the House. It's not from the Russians or the Iranians or the Chinese. It's from American citizens. And that's very likely to continue. When you say that former President Trump is a dictator and that if you elect him, the US will become a dictatorship, and you compare him to Hitler, then it is understandable that many people would view it as patriotic to do everything possible to stop him. If he is an existential threat to the country, then he must be stopped by all means. And if it is true that Biden and the Democrats will destroy the country, and we'll have World War III and the country will be gone if they're elected as Trump has said, then you have to stop them. You have to do everything possible to stop them.
And in that regard, I think this is not going to look like 9/11, where after an external threat, the country rallied together and said never again and meant it, made a lot of mistakes, of course, trillions of dollars and a failed war in Iraq, a failed war in Afghanistan. But it was unifying for America. The response to 9/11 was not red or blue. It was not left or right. It was all Americans, and waving a flag was something that all Americans were proud of and did not see in any way as polarized. I think this is different. I think this is a lot more like what we saw on January 6th. January 6th, you have a lot of people that were outraged, Democrats and Republicans outraged with the violence that they saw in the Capitol building with the illegal insurrection and attempt to overturn a legitimate vote.
And you saw the speeches that were made by Senator McConnell and many others that said that this would not stand. But in a short period of time, it became politicized. It became weaponized, it became Democrats saying one thing and Republicans saying another. And we're now at the point that the January 6th insurrection is singing the national anthem are seen as patriots by the MAGA right. And not only does Trump play that at rallies, but he salutes it. That is, I fear, what's going to happen in the United States in the next four months of this election. I want to see the country come together. I want everyone to recognize that the rhetoric is dangerous and leads to violence and that the US is not on the verge of becoming a dictatorship, and that Trump is not the second coming of Hitler, and that political violence in all of its forms in the United States is something that we as a democracy can't tolerate that. But I don't believe that's where we're heading. I think it is, unfortunately, much more likely that we are going to revert to an “us” versus “them” diatribe.
It is going to be an incredibly polarized election, and people really do feel like democracy at stake. 75% of Americans, when asked, believe that democracy of the United States is at stake with this election in November. The problem is, of course, they don't agree on who's behind that and who's responsible. 25% of Americans agree that it's patriotic to turn to violence in this environment to protect the country. And that doesn't mean that 25% of the people are prepared to actually take action on it. But the level of sympathy, private sympathy and public sympathy is an awful lot higher than the number of people that publicly said, “Oh my God, this is horrible, and nothing like this should ever happen.” And everybody that's watching this knows that.
And so, I fear, that we are not going to learn the right lesson from this near assassination. I'd love to see Trump himself prove me wrong, and we'll see, what the speech is like. But there have been many times, of course, over Trump's presidency, it's like now he's a leader, now he's presidential. And of course, the reality is that Trump is much less of a leader than he is a winner. And Trump won the presidency by dividing America, by taking advantage of the existing divisions and playing on them and preying on them, that he refers to others, his political opponents, as losers. Much more focused on that than fellow citizens. And the need for that to change is immediate and immense. The United States cannot be a country of winners and losers. The United States has to be a team with leaders that we respect. And there are many countries around the world, many democracies around the world, that have that manifestation that feels much more like that.
But the United States today does not. And that's fundamentally why the US is a democracy in crisis and is uniquely in crisis compared to all the other democracies in the world that have had their elections over the past months with no problem at all. It's not where we are right now in the US. We can't normalize this. We can't accept it. We have to be willing to fight together for our democracy, as opposed to fight each other and destroy our democracy. I will say I'm a little offended that President Putin thinks we need his help to destroy democracy. We're more than capable of doing that ourselves. Russians. Stay the hell out. But, seriously, this is a time that we need a lot more from Americans being together.
And that is not the way that we define our political system right now. So that's my honest take on this. I hope I'm wrong. My analysis is not where I want the country to go. And it's not where I'll work on the country to go.
So, I'll be back and I'll talk to you all real soon.
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Entertainer and convention speaker Amber Rose stands at the podium ahead of the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, U.S., July 14, 2024.
What’s on tap for the Republican National Convention?
The RNC Convention opens Monday in Milwaukee, WI, and we’ll be watching from Day One to see the moment when Trump unveils his running mate. Observers are betting that Sen. JD Vance, of Ohio, has the inside track because Donald Trump Jr. – a big Vance fan – is reportedly scheduled to speak right before the official VP pick, rumored to be on Day Three.
Other politicians on the roster to speak include former GOP presidential candidates Ben Carson, Vivek Ramaswamy, and Sen. Marco Rubio, Gov. Ron DeSantis ofFlorida, Rep. Matt Gaetz of Florida, and Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene of Georgia. Notably absent from the list is Trump’s chief former rival for the GOP nod, Nikki Haley.
Family speakers include both Trump sons, Donald Jr. and Eric Trump, but not daughters Ivanka Trump and Tiffany Trump, or wife Melania Trump, who will however make a rare public appearance at the event. And no convention would be complete without star power:Celeb speakers include media personality Tucker Carlson, rapper Amber Rose, UFC CEO Dana White, and reality star Savannah Chrisley.
Attendees also will be treated to multiple advance screenings of the biopic “Reagan,” starring Dennis Quaid as the late president, slated for general release on Aug. 30. Fun fact: Quaid also played US President Bill Clinton in HBO’s 2010 drama“The Special Relationship,” about Clinton’s relationship with UK PM Tony Blair.
We’re watching what the convention-goers say about this weekend’s assassination attempt, and what Trump’s pick for VP says about his campaign priorities.