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Finding America's most spineless
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President Donald Trump holds a "Foreign Trade Barriers" document as he delivers remarks on tariffs in the Rose Garden at the White House on April 2, 2025.
Trump’s tariffs spark market chaos, risk political backlash
Donald Trump’s much-anticipated “liberation day” tariff announcement on Wednesday is the biggest disruption to global trade in decades, so the political, diplomatic, and economic impacts will take time to become clear.
In a dramatic unveiling in the Rose Garden, Trump set in place tariffs of at least 10% on most US trading partners, which set off a global sell-off of stocks, a rebellion from some Republicans, and angry rebukes from shocked trading partners.
It is hard to game out what will happen next because it has been so long since a shock on this scale hit the global tradition system. “We’re literally going back 100 years for historical precedents, and I’m not sure that there is an economic precedent of a policy-driven change of this magnitude in this direction,” says Eurasia Group senior analyst Graeme Thompson.
Trump’s new policy will make it more expensive for Americans to buy products from most countries, which investors fear will lead to a dramatic global economic slowdown and drive up inflation. Trump’s stated goal for the new policy is to stop foreign countries from taking advantage of the United States and boost American manufacturing, but observers and analysts are almost universally united in skepticism around the “golden age” that he promises they will bring.
Because the results are hitting investors and will soon hit the pocketbooks of consumers, there will be growing pressure on Republicans in the House and Senate to force Trump to change course. Until now, Trump’s popularity with his electoral base has kept them in line, but this new policy may put that under strain. Four senators voted with the Democrats in a (likely only symbolic) vote against Canadian tariffs late Wednesday, an acknowledgment that Republicans could face political blowback in the midterms for these widespread duties.
The political reaction is taking place before other countries have even put in place retaliatory measures, which can be expected to damage American exports. The greatest downside is unpredictability.
“I think what is hitting investors globally at this point is that uncertainty,” says Thompson.
“If you just came in and said, very clearly, ‘This is what’s happening, end of story,’ I think a lot of companies wouldn’t be happy, but they could work with it, but that’s not the story that we’ve got right now.”
It’s hard to see anything positive in the reactions from markets in the short term, and the political and diplomatic reaction in the United States and abroad is likely to test the strength of Trump’s support.
National Security Advisor Mike Waltz and Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-NY), the then-nominee for US ambassador to the UN, during a Cabinet meeting at the White House in Washington, DC, on Wednesday, Feb. 26, 2025.
Chain reaction: Why Trump pulled Stefanik’s UN nomination
Rep. Elise Stefanik’s (R-NY) hopes of moving to the Big Apple have been dashed after US President Donald Trump asked her to withdraw her candidacy for ambassador to the United Nations.
“As we advance our America First Agenda, it is essential that we maintain EVERY Republican Seat in Congress,” Trump wrote on Truth Social Thursday, admitting the political nature of his decision. When asked about her withdrawal, Stefanik told Fox News, “I have been proud to be a team player.”
Margin call: With four vacancies in the House, Republicans only have a 218-213 majority in the lower chamber, meaning they can only afford to lose three votes anytime they want to pass legislation. Trump fears that, if Stefanik moved to the UN, Republicans could lose the special election to fill her seat.
Bad signal: It’s not Stefanik’s seat that Trump is worried about right now, but rather Florida’s 6th Congressional District, formerly represented by none other than National Security Adviser and Signal-chat-scandal creatorMichael Waltz. There’s a special election there on Tuesday, and the president’s team is concerned that the well-funded Democratic candidate, Josh Weil, could defeat the underfunded Republican candidate, Randy Fine, even though Trump won the Daytona Beach district by 30 percentage points in the 2024 presidential election.
Eye on the poll: An internal Republican poll from March has Weil leading Fine 44% to 41%, according to a source familiar with the race, with 10% undecided. The poll was conducted by Fabrizio Ward, the same firm that worked for Trump’s campaign, and isn’t yet public. The February iteration of this poll found Weil trailing Fine by 12 points.
NPR's Katherine Maher and PBS's Paula Kerger are sworn in at a hearing of the House Committee on Oversight and Government Reform Subcommittee on Delivering on Government Efficiency in Washington, DC, on March 26, 2025.
Congress grills NPR and PBS over alleged bias
On Wednesday, NPR’s CEO and President Katherine Maher, along with PBS CEO and President Paula Kerger, testified before the House Oversight Subcommittee on Delivering on Government Efficiency, where they faced accusations of left-wing bias. At stake: the $535 million they receive from Congress through the Corporation for Public Broadcasting.
This subcommittee, chaired by Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, was established as a counterpart to Elon Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency. The public media outlets were accused of spreading misinformation, focusing too much on stories about transgender people, and being biased against the president.
The outlets tried to shift the focus to their non-political content. PBS highlighted much of its programming geared toward education, in particular at preparing preschool-aged children who may not be able to afford daycare to enter school. NPR pointed to the critical role local radio plays during natural disasters – particularly in rural and remote areas – and argued that it was key to keeping local news alive since it is the only news outlet with a network of nearly 3,000 local journalists. Maher also said she regretted past tweets disparaging Trump and that the station made mistakes covering the Hunter Biden laptop story.
But their arguments didn’t seem to convince Republicans, with many saying that the rise of podcasts makes NPR less vital for getting news to rural areas than it was in the past. “I don’t think they should get a penny of federal funds,” said Congressman James Comer. We will be watching whether public media maintains its funding in the budget Republicans are working on over the coming weeks.US Capitol at nighttime
Will there be a government shutdown?
Amid the chaos of tariffs, trade wars, stock market slumps, and global conflicts, is the US government headed for a shutdown on Friday? The Senate is struggling to reach an agreement on the continuing resolution passed by the House, which would keep federal funding basically the same as it is now until Sept. 30.
The resolution needs 60 votes to be brought to the floor for a final vote, where it can be passed by a simple majority. This means Republicans need to convince at least eight Democrats to get on board. If the Dems play ball, the government stays open, but Donald Trump and his Department of Government Efficiency get a win – one that will allow them to keep pursuing their agenda and gutting so much of the government Congress is looking to fund.
Democrats would prefer a shorter continuing resolution for one month instead of the six months in the Republican plan since the stopgap funding measure doesn’t come with the robust Congressional oversight on spending that a regular budget bill would. The showdown also represents a broader struggle, not just between Republicans and Democrats, but also between Congress and a White House that is asserting – and extending – its power, testing the limits of lawmakers and the law.
But the Dems don’t appear to be united on shutting down the government and are likely to give the GOP enough votes to advance their bill to the next stage -- where it can become law with just Republican votes. They will then vote no, going on record in opposition but with the full understanding that the GOP will pass it and the government will stay open. They also may try to save face first by voting on their own, shorter-period, temporary funding bill, though it will never pass.
US House Speaker Mike Johnson speaks to reporters at the Capitol in Washington, U.S., in February 2025.
Republicans bid to avoid government shutdown
With a government shutdown deadline looming on Friday, US House Speaker Mike Johnson on Saturday introduced a continuing resolution that, if passed, would effectively fund the government through September. US President Donald Trump has backed the bill. The budget battle comes as fears rise over the impact of Trump's tariff policies, and the flip-flopping nature of their implementation. On Sunday, Trump refused to rule out that his aggressive economic policies could cause a recession.
Wins and losses: In passing a continuing resolution rather than a new budget, Republicans are trying to keep government spending around the levels set by former US President Joe Biden last year. The bill contains additional funding for immigration enforcement and reduces nondefense spending by $13 billion, but it doesn’t touch two significant components of the US welfare state: Social Security and Medicaid. It is vague about its spending lines, potentially handing some leeway to White House adviser Elon Musk to continue cutting the size of government. Democrats are crying foul.
Blame game: It’s a tale almost as old as Congress that the two principal parties in the United States try to blame one another for shutting down the government whenever a contentious budget deadline comes around. Yet, the listless House Democrats — whose power has been so blunted — don’t even seem to be bothering with this game, openly suggesting that they’d be willing to block the resolution and shut down the government if they have the votes. How the tables have turned.
Analysis: Johnson aims to avoid that and plans to hold the vote on the continuing resolution by Tuesday, but it is not a done deal. Even if House Republicans maintain their united front and pass the bill, it will need the support of at least seven Democratic senators to get to the president’s desk. This means Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer has some leverage. We will be watching to see whether he uses it or undercuts his Democratic allies in the lower chamber, as he did in 2019 when he accepted the Senate Republicans’ border bill despite then-US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s objections.Speaker of the House Mike Johnson (R-LA) at the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) at the Gaylord National Resort and Convention Center in National Harbor, Maryland on February 20, 2025
Will Republicans really slash Medicaid?
This week, House Republicans are expected to vote on a budget measure that would fund an extension of President Donald Trump’s first-term tax cuts by taking an axe to one of America’s key entitlement programs: Medicaid.
What’s Medicaid? A joint federal and state program that funds medical care for low-income people. About a quarter of Americans are enrolled directly, and two-thirds say they or their family members have benefitted from the program.
What would the measure do? Slash $2 trillion from the federal budget over the next decade, including about $800 billion from Medicaid. The Medicaid cuts would come by placing per-capita limits on federal funding, narrowing states’ tax options for funding Medicaid, and imposing work requirements on recipients.
The debate: The GOP says these measures will root out waste and abuse, shift more of the burden onto states, which know their own needs better, and incentivize recipients to get off the dole.
Critics say the sweeping reductions would harm the poor by slashing their access to health care while funding tax cuts that disproportionately benefit the wealthy.
What’s Trump saying? He said he would “love and cherish” Medicaid, along with its related old-age benefit programs, Medicare and Social Security, which the GOP has said it wouldn’t touch. But Trump has also endorsed the budget resolution.
How the people see it: Strong majorities of Democrats, Republicans, and Independents view Medicaid favorably, according to recent polling by the Kaiser Family Foundation.
The GOP’s dilemma: The party is committed to cuts in taxes and spending, but several GOP districts with large populations of Medicaid recipients are up in arms. And given the GOP’s razor-thin House majority, and unified Democratic opposition, the Republicans can’t afford to lose more than a single vote in the House.
Will Elon Musk be good for America?
SpaceX and Tesla CEO Elon Musk has such an influential role in Donald Trump’s new administration that he’s been called the “shadow president.” Will his outsize presence in the Trump White House help usher in a new era of US tech policy or lead to geopolitical chaos? On GZERO World, Atlantic CEO Nicholas Thompson joins Ian Bremmer to discuss technology and the incoming Trump administration. Musk’s role in everything from space travel to AI development to social media will have a huge impact on America’s technology and economic future. The ‘Elon-ification’ of Twitter/X has also given Musk a platform to influence politics abroad, which could complicate America’s relationship with geopolitical allies who want him to stop interfering but don’t want to jeopardize their relationship with the new US President. Though Thompson believes Trump’s technology policy will ultimately be better because of Musk’s influence, he also says Elon could create a lot of instability and inefficient regulations.
“Elon cares deeply about some of the most important issues, like climate change and space exploration, so you get a lot of benefits,” Thompson says, “On the other hand, you get the chaos that comes with him and might end up with really inefficient regulations because they’re all skewed towards Musk companies.”
Watch full episode: Big Tech under Trump 2.0
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