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Elon Musk in an America Party hat.
Elon Musk is about to discover that politics is harder than rocket science
“Today, the America Party is formed to give you back your freedom,” he announced a day after President Donald Trump signed into law the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA), the deficit-busting tax-and-spend package that Musk had blasted as a “disgusting abomination.” The megabill that broke the bromance will add an estimated $3-4 trillion to the deficit over the next decade thanks to large tax cuts for the wealthy and corporations, increased spending (especially for defense and homeland security), and higher debt interest payments, making what’s already an unsustainable fiscal situation much worse. If some of the law’s now-temporary provisions are eventually made permanent, as this bill did for the 2017 “temporary” tax cuts, the total cost could be as much as $6 trillion. “When it comes to bankrupting our country with waste & graft, we live in a one-party system, not a democracy,” Elon wrote on X.
What exactly does the America Party stand for? Details are scarce, but Musk says his goal is to disrupt the uniparty’s hold over American politics and reduce federal deficits (oh, and uncover the real Jeffrey Epstein story) – for real this time. Elon went all-in on support for Trump in 2024, who in return installed him to lead the Department of Government Efficiency’s efforts to slash government spending. Himself a disruptor of the uniparty, President Trump has broken with bipartisan consensus on immigration and foreign policy, tightening border enforcement and actually trying to end foreign wars (even if not very effectively). But Trump has governed like a card-carrying uniparty member when it comes to expanding the size and cost of government.
This grievance is the core driver behind Musk’s creation of the America Party. He was right to ask ‘what the heck was the point of DOGE’ once the OBBBA’s debt blowout was codified – although in fairness to Trump, DOGE did deliver less than $175 billion in “savings,” a rounding error in the overall federal budget and far short of the $2 trillion in “waste, fraud, and abuse” Musk had promised to cut initially. Even before the ink dried, the bill was polling deep underwater with the American people. But most voters hate the OBBBA not because it increases the deficit and debt, but despite it. By revealed preference, voters support politicians who spend on them and punish those who threaten their benefits or raise their taxes. It’s no wonder that the biggest wealth transfer from the working class to the top 1% in modern US history, which kicks more than 10 million Americans off Medicaid to make the rich richer, is so deeply unpopular. But fiscal discipline? That has had no real constituency in our spend-happy nation – and, accordingly, no home in either major party – for a very long time.
The America Party faces a product-market-fit problem that everyone but Elon seems to recognize. Most voters claim to be deficit hawks in the abstract – it sounds so serious and responsible! – but few support the broad-based tax increases and spending cuts on everything from entitlements and healthcare to defense, education, and border security that balancing the budget entails in real life.
If Elon wanted to create a party that represents the interests of “the 80%” of Americans “in the middle” and not just a fringe of too-online libertarians, its platform would have to consist of higher taxes on the wealthy and corporations, cheaper healthcare, childcare, energy, and housing, congressional term limits and lobbying reform, common-sense gun regulations, comprehensive immigration reform, and other such policies supported by bipartisan majorities. Some positions may be accommodated by one or the other major party, whether now or in the future. It’s even possible that there may exist a majority for an economically populist, socially moderate third party today. But there’s definitely no popular appetite for the kind of America Party that Elon has in mind.
So, does that mean that Elon is going to fail? Not necessarily ... but probably.
On the one hand, unlimited funds plus razor‑thin congressional majorities equal mischief potential. We’re talking about the wealthiest dude in the world perhaps being willing to throw a blank checkbook at America’s coin-operated political system. Musk poured nearly $300 million into GOP campaigns in 2024 and happily spent over $20 million on a single Wisconsin Supreme Court race earlier this year. And while he’s highly unlikely to be able to get America Party candidates elected to Congress, he may not need to. Musk could plausibly influence primaries, spoil close races, and force Republicans to tack (slightly) toward fiscal discipline. His stated goal of controlling “2 or 3 Senate seats and 8-10 House districts” by 2026 sounds modest until you remember that four Senate races and 11 House contests were decided by under two points in 2024. In a 50‑50 nation, margins that slim turn even a 2% spoiler vote into real leverage. And if he’s willing to burn, say, $250 million coaxing ten safe‑seat incumbent Republicans to switch jerseys, he could build himself a small blocking coalition in the House with veto power over key legislation before voters ever see the America Party on a ballot.
On the other hand, not even Musk’s eyewatering fortune is likely to be able to override the laws of political physics that have humbled every third‑party crusader before him. America’s deep-rooted two-party presidential system is designed to strangle third parties in their crib: first-past-the-post, winner-take-all elections herd voters into two big tents, and state ballot-access and federal campaign-finance laws pose formidable entry barriers even for someone with Musk’s resources. Worse still, there are fewer true independent voters than polls suggest: most Americans who dislike both major parties (and there are many of us) tend to hold their noses and often vote for one of them, fearing “wasting” their ballot. The few voters out there who actually affiliate with neither party and are open to voting for a third party don’t agree on much with one another – certainly not on an uncompromising commitment to austerity. Musk may soon discover that building a successful third-party bid in America, especially one centered around Making Fiscal Responsibility Great Again, is not rocket science … it’s harder.
Then there’s Elon himself – a wellspring of liabilities matched only by the depth of his pockets. There’s no denying that he’s a generationally talented entrepreneur and an incredibly hard worker, but the mercurial billionaire’s popularity trails even Trump’s, his attention span is legendarily short for ventures that aren’t core to making him money, and he has a history of not following through on his most outlandish and overconfident promises. Leading a political party will cost him a fortune, distract from his business activities and humanity-saving mission, end in failure and frustration, and otherwise make his life more difficult than it needs to be.
This is especially true if President Trump reacts as viciously against Musk’s betrayal as I expect him to. Should he decide that Musk’s America Party threatens not just MAGA’s political agenda but his personal spotlight, there’s no telling how far he’ll be willing to go to punish him – and to what extent he will be constrained by the rule of law in doing so. Based solely on what Trump has gotten away with doing to other people who have harmed him far less grievously, Musk’s federal contracts, tax subsidies, even his security clearance and US citizenship could be on the chopping block. That risk alone may deter Elon from sticking with this effort for very long, and would-be recruits (many already skeptical about Elon’s long-term commitment to the bit) from joining it.
Musk may yet scare a few vulnerable incumbents or win over the handful of principled libertarians like Rep. Thomas Massie (R-KY), but the structural logic of US politics still points to a binary choice in 2026 and 2028. If the history of US third parties is any guide, his latest moonshot will flame out faster than a Tesla battery. Even in the strongest-case scenario, the America Party is likely to end up looking more like a successful pressure group – something closer to the Tea Party, the Club for Growth, or the Sierra Club – than an electable third party.
Of course, the man who builds reusable rockets and is landing them on barges in the middle of the ocean thrives on low-probability bets. So keep an eye on the launchpad and enjoy the show. After all, even if the party fizzles, Musk is always sure to deliver the one thing Americans consistently reward: entertainment value.
Elon Musk vows to start a new political party
Elon Musk wants to start a new political party and it’s already making waves. In this episode of Ian Bremmer’s Quick Take, Ian unpacks Musk’s so-called “America Party,” driven by Musk’s frustration with both Republicans and Democrats.
Musk’s recent poll on X showed 65% support for the idea, but Ian is skeptical: “Elon wants to create this new party that is not the revealed preference of 80% of Americans not even close. They want you to spend more money on more stuff that they like that benefit them.”
Ian also questions Musk’s long-term commitment, noting Musk “has an attention span that is subject to distraction.” He warns that Donald Trump could strongly push back: “Trump loves headlines, but they have to be about him.” Ian adds that Trump’s response could have serious consequences for Musk, including threats to government contracts, subsidies, and more.
What Zohran Mamdani’s win really signals for US politics
In this episode of Ian Bremmer’s Quick Take, Ian digs into the surprise Democratic primary victory of Zohran Mamdani in New York’s mayoral race and why it might be “an early signal of something much bigger in the United States.”
Mamdani, a 33-year-old democratic socialist, ran on a platform of $30 minimum wage, state-run groceries, and taxing billionaires. “I don’t think we should have billionaires,” Mamdani told NBC News’ “Meet the Press” on June 29th. Ian unpacks why that kind of economic populism is gaining steam.“
Socialists can’t beat capitalists,” Ian says, “but they can beat kleptocrats.” He warns that both right- and left-wing populism are being fueled by a growing sense that the American system is rigged. As AI begins threatening white-collar jobs, that discontent could spread to entirely new demographics, creating real risk for political and business elites.
“This isn't a mainstream position,” Ian notes. “But it's a hell of a lane for economic populists.”
A pie graph showing the percentage of Americans in favor of having a third major political party.
Graphic Truth: Do Americans want a third party?
Remember when Elon Musk threatened to start his own political party during his spat with Donald Trump? It’s unclear how many Americans would switch their political affiliation to a Musk-run party specifically, but a plurality agree that they’d like another major political party to rival the Democrats and Republicans.
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On Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping's podcast, This Authoritarian Life, the Russian president reveals why he was so inspired by the book "Original Sin." #PUPPETREGIME
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Sen Van Hollen, a vocal Trump critic, on how the Democrats get back in the fight
In a clip from GZERO World’s latest episode, Maryland Senator Chris Van Hollen lays out what Democrats must do to reclaim political momentum—and it starts with ditching reactive politics. “Voters don’t like people who always seem to have their finger to the wind,” he says. “Probably if I’d done that, I wouldn’t have gone to El Salvador.”
Van Hollen argues that while opposing Trump’s policies is important, Democrats also need to offer a proactive alternative that resonates with working Americans. A central piece of that, he says, is countering Trump’s tax agenda, which he calls “the great betrayal.” “He’s throwing working people under the bus to help the Elon Musks of the world,” Van Hollen warns, pointing to tax cuts for the wealthy at the expense of middle- and low-income Americans.
He believes the party’s path forward should include targeted tax relief, expanded access to healthcare, and a stronger focus on economic security—issues that speak directly to voters who once backed Trump but may be open to change.
Watch full episode: Why Sen. Chris Van Hollen stood up to Trump
New digital episodes of GZERO World are released every Monday on YouTube. Don't miss an episode: subscribe to GZERO's YouTube channel and turn on notifications (🔔).GZERO World with Ian Bremmer airs on US public television weekly - check local listings.
After Sen. Van Hollen's visit to Kilmar Abrego Garcia, what's next?
Ian Bremmer sits down with Senator Chris Van Hollen in the US Capitol Complex in the latest episode of GZERO World to discuss his high-profile trip to El Salvador and what comes next. Van Hollen's visit was intended to draw attention to Kilmar Abrego Garcia, a Maryland resident wrongfully deported and held in a Salvadoran prison. But despite the media splash and a unanimous Supreme Court ruling demanding his return, the senator says the Trump administration has done nothing: “The Vice President of El Salvador made it clear repeatedly that the ball was in the Trump administration’s court… They’re only holding him because the Trump administration is paying them to do so.”
So what’s next? Van Hollen is pursuing a three-pronged strategy. First, he’s relying on a federal judge to compel the administration to comply with the court order. Second, he and Senator Tim Kaine are introducing a resolution requiring a public accounting of the administration’s actions and of El Salvador’s human rights practices. And third, he’s turning up the heat on Senate Republicans: “We’re trying to shame our colleagues into standing up for the Constitution. So far, there seems to be no bottom to which they will sink.”
Even after the trip, Van Hollen insists the fight isn’t over—but with Trump’s open defiance of the judiciary, he warns, the rule of law itself may be what’s really on the line.
Watch full episode: Why Sen. Chris Van Hollen stood up to Trump
GZERO World with Ian Bremmer, the award-winning weekly global affairs series, airs nationwide on US public television stations (check local listings).
New digital episodes of GZERO World are released every Monday on YouTube. Don't miss an episode: subscribe to GZERO's YouTube channel and turn on notifications (🔔).GZERO World with Ian Bremmer airs on US public television weekly - check local listings.
- HARD NUMBERS: Maryland senator flies to El Salvador, Russian journalists jailed, California sues Trump admin over tariffs, EU tilts right on asylum, Peru’s ex-president guilty of money laundering ›
- El Salvador's Bukele refuses to return wrongly-deported Maryland man, and offers to jail US citizens too ›
- The Graphic Truth: How does El Salvador's prison rate stack up? ›
Why Sen. Chris Van Hollen stood up to Trump
In the latest episode of GZERO World, Ian Bremmer speaks with Maryland Senator Chris Van Hollen about his recent trip to El Salvador and his broader concerns over the Trump administration’s abuse of executive power. Van Hollen visited Kilmar Abrego Garcia, a man legally residing in the United States (though who initially entered illegally) who was wrongly deported to a prison in El Salvador. Despite a unanimous Supreme Court ruling ordering his return, “the President admitted that he could get him back by simply picking up the phone,” Van Hollen says. “They are in violation of a nine-to-nothing Supreme Court order.”
Van Hollen accuses the Salvadoran government of detaining Abrego Garcia only because “the Trump administration is paying us money to do so.” And while Republicans have remained largely silent, Van Hollen reveals that privately, “they have conceded that we are at risk… when we have a lawless president.”
Then the conversation turns to foreign policy and trade, where Van Hollen criticizes deep State Department cuts and Trump’s sweeping tariffs. “This tariff chaos is hurting our economy,” he says, adding that lawsuits are already challenging what he calls an abuse of emergency powers. On domestic politics, Van Hollen argues that Democrats need to offer a clear economic vision: “Trump’s tax plan… is what I call the great betrayal.”
Finally, the senator reflects on the future of the Democratic Party. He urges fellow Democrats to be more than just “no on Trump,” calling for clear alternatives—especially when it comes to taxes, healthcare, and economic policy. He sees Trump’s tax cuts as “exhibit A of the great betrayal” of working Americans and calls for a plan that benefits those left behind.
GZERO World with Ian Bremmer, the award-winning weekly global affairs series, airs nationwide on US public television stations (check local listings).
New digital episodes of GZERO World are released every Monday on YouTube. Don't miss an episode: subscribe to GZERO's YouTube channel and turn on notifications (🔔).GZERO World with Ian Bremmer airs on US public television weekly - check local listings.
- Trump versus the courts ›
- El Salvador's Bukele refuses to return wrongly-deported Maryland man, and offers to jail US citizens too ›
- HARD NUMBERS: Maryland senator flies to El Salvador, Russian journalists jailed, California sues Trump admin over tariffs, EU tilts right on asylum, Peru’s ex-president guilty of money laundering ›
- What does Trump’s mass deportation mean for Canada — and immigration policy? ›
- Trump’s immigration plan faces hurdles ›