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A flag is left at the event held by Democratic presidential nominee U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris during Election Night, at Howard University, in Washington, U.S., November 6, 2024.
Where do Democrats go from here?
One month out from the election, the dust is settling around Democrats’ new reality. The final outstanding congressional race was called on Wednesday, solidifying Republican control of the House and Senate. Meanwhile, Donald Trump is entering the White House after winning the Electoral College and the popular vote, and the conservatives hold a majority on the Supreme Court.
But enough about the Republicans. We get it, they’ve got a lot of power. So, where do Democrats go from here?
Analysts are still picking apart exactly what doomed Kamala Harris in the last election, but it’s clear that the Democrats bled base voters. Trump made gains among Black voters, Latino voters, and voters who make under $50,000 a year. These groups are at the heart of who the Democratic Party sees itself as serving and standing for, leaving the party “listless and leaderless,” according to Eurasia Group US analyst Noah Daponte-Smith. “The shift toward Trump among ancestrally Democratic voters has really jolted the party,” he adds, but what will they take away from this reckoning defeat?
In the short term, the Democrats will undergo a leadership transition, and new faces are likely to skew younger. Part of this is generational, as the party’s “old guard” of Nancy Pelosi and Chuck Schumer fade from the scene. Lining up to take their places are representatives like Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, who is poised to win control of the powerful House Oversight Committee and is far more politically adroit than her fellow progressive “Squad” members. Meanwhile, governors whose names were floated to replace Joe Biden’s on the ticket — including Gavin Newsom, JB Pritzker, Gretchen Whitmer, and Josh Shapiro — will spend the next four years positioning themselves for a fierce primary fight in 2028.
In the long term, Democrats will be looking to win back the House in 2026, which Daponte-Smith predicts “should be eminently possible” thanks to Republicans having only a narrow majority and because the opposition party almost always makes gains after losing a presidential election.
“That will allow them to block the Trump legislative agenda in 2027-28,” he says, “and will give them the gavels to conduct investigations, as they did in the first Trump term.” A win in the House would give them renewed hope going into 2028. That being said, if they don’t win, true panic will set in.
But sometime between then and now, Democrats need to find clarity on their platform. The problem? There is no consensus on what led to their downfall in this election. While Harris’ defeat has some Democrats ready to start from scratch, many blame her loss on the party moving too far left and alienating dependable Democrats in the center. Others believe that the party’s message was fundamentally sound, but Biden’s late withdrawal and unpopularity doomed Harris from the get-go. Meanwhile, supporters of Bernie Sanders echo that the party lost because they left the working class behind.
Daponte-Smith says his big question about the Democrats’ next platform is which parts of the Trump 2.0 agenda they concede, like how Biden maintained Trump’s China tariffs. Potential contenders, in his view, could be RFK’s Make America Healthy Again agenda or a more restrictive stance on immigration.
We will get some clarity on the Democrats’ new direction on Feb. 1, when the party elects a new chair. Back in 2016, this election turned into a proxy fight between progressives and mainstream Democrats. This time around, it has the potential to be the same. So far, the field remains wide open, with four candidates who have officially put their hats in the ring and a dozen or so others whose names are being circulated. We will be watching this race as it will undoubtedly be an inflection point for how the party plans to move past their disastrous 2024 performance.
Opinion: Mike Tyson, born killers, and the Democrats’ media problem
There are times in life when it is important to listen to Mike Tyson. For the Democrats, right now is one of those times.
As some of you may know, the fearsome former heavyweight champ is about to fight Jake Paul, a 27-year-old boxing-curious YouTube star 30 years his junior. It will be Iron Mike’s first real fight in almost 20 years.
For anyone who remembers watching Tyson in the ring – or even challenging him on “Mike Tyson’s Punch-Out!” as a child – it seems obvious that Iron Mike, even at 57, is going to kill Glass Jake, isn’t it?
But I’m not a boxing analyst, I’m a political analyst, and so what sticks with me is the way Tyson, in a recently released Netflix documentary entitled “Countdown Paul vs. Tyson,” explains the difference between himself and Paul.
“He’s a manufactured killer,” Tyson says, watching as Paul claims to be the new face of boxing. “Television and papers made him a killer. I’m a natural-born killer.”
Manufactured killers versus natural-born killers. This distinction is on my mind these days as I’m reading the post-mortems on Kamala Harris’ election loss to Donald Trump. In particular, the ones that focus on how Trump’s deft engagement with non-traditional media – in particular, podcasts popular with young men – helped him win.
The Democrats, some are saying, need to “build their own Joe Rogan.” The reference, of course, is to “The Joe Rogan Experience,” the most listened-to podcast in America. Rogan, a former UFC fight commentator and one-time Bernie-bro, has become a celebrated voice in MAGAland, and a hugely influential figure among the millions of young men (of all races) who flocked to Trump at the polls.
Trump spent three hours with Rogan and his 11 million regular listeners, while Harris refused, reportedly because she was worried about backlash from some of her progressive staffers. This has become a microcosm of the ways Democrats failed to get out of the mainstream media bubble to engage with voters who were either undecided or disillusioned.
The problem for the Democrats isn’t that they don’t have a media ecosystem of their own. They do – it’s just that it’s mostly the mass media, precisely the kinds of outlets that are suffering a slow-motion knockout as Americans’ trust in legacy media plummets.
The data on that score are stark: Only about a third of Americans trust mass media now. The partisan splits on it are glaring. Some 54% of Democrats still trust the mainstream, but only half as many independents agree. Among Republicans, the mark is just 12%.
Podcasters and streamers have leaped into this vacuum of trust. Over the past 15 years, the share of Americans who regularly listen to pods has quintupled to nearly 50%. That doesn’t even capture the millions of hours people spend getting news and views from streamers on YouTube, Rumble, and other video platforms.
Conservative activists and campaigns have exploited this space particularly well, with 1%-funders like the Kochs, the Wilkses, or Peter Thiel pouring huge amounts of money into finding and elevating young influencers who have audiences – and credibility – of their own.
Countering that from the left, if the Democrats want to, won’t be easy. As some have pointed out, many young, left-wing influencers are at a disadvantage. The right-wing influencer set is funded by a whole constellation of conservative billionaires, but left-of-center activists with a more overtly “soak the rich” message might find it harder to get similar funding from Democrat-aligned one-percenters.
Democrats certainly need a better media strategy. But the biggest mistake they could make would be to believe it’s possible to “build” a Joe Rogan or even a series of Joe Rogans. You can’t build that any more than you can grow a Mike Tyson in a laboratory.
To get out of the wilderness, the Democrats need to get out of their bubble. They need to go find – and support – some natural-born killers of their own. Trying to simply manufacture them, in a deeply anti-establishment era, would only lead to more knockouts at the ballot box.
Trump's America: How MAGA came out on top
On this episode of GZERO World, Ian Bremmer unpacks the implications of Donald Trump’s decisive election win, marking his historic return to office and the GOP's comprehensive control over government (assuming they hold onto the House). Despite polls suggesting a razor-close election, Trump won with strong support across critical swing states, including Pennsylvania, where voter shifts were significant even in traditionally Democratic strongholds like Philadelphia. Bremmer discusses Nov 5 and its wide range of implications with Vanderbilt historian Nicole Hemmer and Wall Street Journal correspondent Molly Ball. How did Trump’s return signal a change election? How much of it was driven by voters' discontent with inflation and immigration, and how much was simply the appeal of a populist alternative to the status quo.
The conversation highlights Trump’s longstanding opposition to globalism and his strategy to reshape America’s place on the world stage. With the GOP controlling the presidency, Senate, and likely the House, Trump's second term could bring sweeping policy changes, including a push to consolidate executive power and reduce judicial and institutional independence. Reflecting on the stakes, Molly Ball comments, “If there are not those barriers before him, what is he willing to do? What norms and traditions, not to say laws, is he willing to violate in order to pursue his goals?” Hemmer adds, “The erosion of representative democracy…has accelerated over the past 10 years,” emphasizing the risks of unchecked power. They also examine the Democratic Party’s struggle to resonate with working-class voters across racial lines and its internal debate over progressive versus centrist policies. With both parties facing pressure, there remains an enduring tension between America's democratic ideals and the growing appetite for anti-establishment reform.
GZERO World with Ian Bremmer, the award-winning weekly global affairs series, airs nationwide on US public television stations (check local listings).
New digital episodes of GZERO World are released every Monday on YouTube. Don't miss an episode: subscribe to GZERO's YouTube channel and turn on notifications (🔔).
Why voters went back to Trump, with Molly Ball and Nicole Hemmer
Listen: On the GZERO World podcast, Ian Bremmer dives into the far-reaching consequences of Donald Trump’s return to office as he becomes the first president since Grover Cleveland to serve non-consecutive terms. With strong wins across key swing states like Pennsylvania, Trump’s decisive victory reflects widespread voter frustration over issues like inflation and immigration and signals a major shift toward populism and anti-establishment sentiment. Historian Nicole Hemmer notes, “We’re witnessing the acceleration of democratic erosion, where checks and balances may no longer hold,” pointing to the dangers of unchecked power as Trump’s administration begins to take shape.
Joined by Vanderbilt historian Hemmer and Wall Street Journal reporter Molly Ball, Bremmer explores how Trump’s policies and approach could reshape American governance, especially with the GOP in control of the Executive, Senate, and likely the House. Ball highlights the risks involved, saying, “The real test will be whether the barriers that once existed to curb executive power still stand—or if they’re eroded by design.” They also reflect on the Democratic Party’s internal challenges, including how it must find ways to reconnect with working-class voters and navigate its ideological divide between progressive and centrist visions.
Subscribe to the GZERO World Podcast on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, or your preferred podcast platform, to receive new episodes as soon as they're published.
Donald Trump will take office with unprecedented power
Donald Trump’s 2024 election win gives him a powerful mandate from voters frustrated with government gridlock and bloated bureaucracy. That, along with the Supreme Court’s recent ruling on presidential power, means Trump will take office in January with unprecedented impunity to enact his agenda, radically remake the Federal government, and rewrite institutional norms. So what happens next? On GZERO World with Ian Bremmer, Molly Ball, senior political reporter at The Wall Street Journal, and Nicole Hemmer, a political historian specializing in conservative media, discuss the implications of a second Trump presidency and how he plans to fulfill promises to voters frustrated with the status quo. Trump will be reined in by the Constitution, but beyond that, will face little accountability, giving him near-total power to enact sweeping changes to democratic institutions.
“I think a lot of people are frustrated with the feeling that our institutions are so calcified and bottle-necked that they don’t allow anything to get done,” Balls says, “So I think there is a mandate for Trump to actually execute on his agenda.”
“I think the idea that the president has free rein does have more popular support than I think many liberals and proponents of rule of law would hope,” Hemmer adds, “The idea that there are levers that can be pulled that will suddenly snap into place an accountability regime, those levers don't exist.”
GZERO World with Ian Bremmer, the award-winning weekly global affairs series, airs nationwide on US public television stations (check local listings).
New digital episodes of GZERO World are released every Monday on YouTube. Don't miss an episode: subscribe to GZERO's YouTube channel and turn on notifications (🔔).
US election: GOP could win a Trump-led sweep
Jon Lieber, Eurasia Group's head of research and managing director for the firm's coverage of United States political and policy developments, shares his perspective on US politics from Washington, DC.
It's election night in America. And a slightly unexpected result tonight, with the election returns coming back very strong for President Donald Trump. He may actually end up winning the national popular vote, which was not, I think, on anyone's bingo card, really.
Big surprise for Trump has been a surge in rural support where the Trump coalition showed up to vote for him. Meanwhile, Harris has somewhat underperformed in urban areas, and while she did have a pretty good showing with women voters, it wasn't enough to keep her ahead of Trump, at least in the results as we know them tonight.
Harris has been underperforming down-ballot Democrats generally, which has kept the Democrats competitive in the House, which could lead to an unusual situation where all three of the main political bodies in the United States, the White House, the House, and the Senate, flip in the same election. The Senate is in the bag for Republicans. They're going to have somewhere between 52 and 55 seats, it looks like. And Trump is probably the favorite to win in the Electoral College.
The House outcome we may not know in the next 24 hours. Some of the House seats that really matter in determining the majority, which is very close, are slow to count. But right now, it does look like Democrats have some momentum with a couple of Republicans losing key seats.
So stay tuned for more of what we're watching this week in US politics.
US Capitol building at in the morning sun. Washington DC, USA The US Capitol building in the early morning at sunrise.
Election Countdown: The 6 congressional races to watch
While eyes around the globe will be on the US presidency this Election Day, there are consequential races further down the ballot that will determine how much power Kamala Harris or Donald Trump will wield. A handful of Senate and House races will decide which party has the power to advance or stymie the next president’s agenda.
Going into election night, 538 forecasters give Republicans a 92% chance of winning the Senate, but experts say the House could be anyone’s game. The Senate is likely to be called on election night, but because of slow counting in California, the results in the House are unlikely to be called before the end of the week at the earliest.
Here are the key races to watch.
Senate
Democrats currently hold a narrow 51-49 majority but are facing an almost certain loss in West Virginia. That means that Republicans only need to capture one more race to win the majority. This is a pretty comfortable spot for the GOP to be in. Meanwhile, Democrats rely on dramatically outperforming in the polls or performing miracles and expanding their map by winning states like Texas or Florida.
Thirty-four seats are up for grabs, and 10 races are expected to determine the balance of power: Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Arizona, Nevada, Montana, Nebraska, Maryland, and Texas.
Arizona offers a race of political extremes. Independent Sen. Kyrsten Sinema is stepping down, and progressive Rep. Ruben Gallego and Trump-darling Kari Lake are vying to take her spot. Lake, who lost the governor’s race in 2022 and continues to insist the election was “stolen,” has been encroaching on Gallego’s lead in the polls in recent days. Gallego’s slight edge is being attributed to his popularity among Latino voters, who make up 25% of the electorate.
Michigan, meanwhile, is a competition between centrists. Democratic Sen. Debbie Stabenow is retiring, and mainstream Republican Mike Rogers – a former Trump critic who has since embraced him – is facing outgoing Rep. Elissa Slotkin, who is using her national security background to win over centrists in and around Detroit.
The race has been tied in the final weeks of the election, and some of the biggest issues are reproductive rights and the candidates’ support for electric vehicles – a hot topic in a state that is home to the Big Three auto manufacturers.
In Ohio, Sen. Sherrod Brown, the Democratic incumbent, is fighting to keep his seat in the solidly red state against Trump-backed Bernie Moreno. Brown has lost what was once a commanding lead in recent weeks and is now polling behind Moreno by one point. The race has drawn $500 million in ad spending, more than any Senate race in history.
Control of the Senate could very well hinge on this state, which has voted twice for Trump and is likely to do so for a third time this year. Brown has held on to power in the past by focusing on local issues and evading questions about national political figures but has suffered from attack ads framing him as being far-left on transgender issues. But Democrats need this state if they have any chance of keeping their majority.
House of Representatives
Control of the House, like everything in this election, is expected to be incredibly close. All 435 seats are on the line, and, likely, whichever party wins control will do so by just a few seats. The Republicans are on the defense and need to control their slim majority, while Democrats need to gain four seats to flip the chamber. Democrat’s lead has declined as the election approached, with their margin slipping to just 0.5 points over the Republicans, down from 2.6 in early September.
New York’s 19th district is one of the most expensive House races in the 2024 election, with Democrats seeing flipping the seat as key to their efforts to regain control of the House. Republican incumbent Marc Molinaro faces a rematch against Democrat Josh Riley in this swing district that stretches across all or parts of the 11 upstate counties. It is expected to be a bellwether for how the parties are performing in the suburbs of New York and New Jersey, where Democrats saw disappointing turnout in the 2022 midterms, which led to them losing the seat.
Molinaro, once known as one of the most bipartisan members of Congress, has veered to the right this cycle, with his campaign drawing on fears about immigration and crime, while Riley has focused on abortion and reproductive rights.
Virginia’s 7th district is worth watching because it is expected to be an early bellwether of how the parties are fairing in a mixed district that spans from the DC suburbs to the rural Piedmont region. Republican Derrick Anderson is currently down four points against Democrat Yevgeny “Eugene” Vindman, who led the whistleblower account of the quid-quo-pro phone call between Trump and Volodymyr Zelensky that became the basis of the first impeachment case against Trump.
In Nebraska’s 2nd district, incumbent Republican Don Bacon is currently beating Democrat Tony Vargas by just two points. That's the same margin the GOP won by in 2022, and the Dems have had their eyes on winning it back ever since.
The district is one of 16 Republican-held seats in places that voted for Joe Biden in 2020. It is also known as the “blue dot” because it often sends one of Nebraska’s electoral votes to the Democrats even as the rest of the states’ votes go to Republicans.
Check out more of our recent election coverage:
- Everything you need to know about the 7 swing states
- The 15 counties to watch on election night
- The Disinformation Election: How conspiracy theories are impacting the vote
- How the 2024 presidential election could define the future of the Supreme Court
- Each presidential candidate needs at least 270 electoral votes to win the election. As the results come in, keep track of them with our handy map! Download it here
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Top threats to US election security
As Election Day approaches, US cybersecurity chief Jen Easterly warns that while America’s voting systems are more secure than ever, the period between voting and certification remains vulnerable, with foreign adversaries poised to exploit any internal divisions during this critical time.
In a wide-ranging interview with Ian Bremmer on GZERO World before Election Day, Easterly, the director of Homeland Security's Center for Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency, discussed the massive improvements to the nation’s voting systems and emphasized: “with great confidence that election infrastructure has never been more secure.”
However, as for that sensitive period, after votes are counted and reported but before they are officially certified, Easterly is much more concerned. "Between November 5th and January 6th—when the Congress is going to certify the vote—our foreign adversaries are going to go hog wild.” She points to intelligence that Russia, China, Iran, and other US adversaries will be waiting to exploit any internal divisions. But they can only exploit what is already there, and if 2020 taught us anything, it is that the certification of election results is far from a formality. Can we hold it together long enough to peacefully transfer power? Let's hope that this election cycle past is not prologue.
GZERO World with Ian Bremmer, the award-winning weekly global affairs series, airs nationwide on US public television stations (check local listings).
New digital episodes of GZERO World are released every Monday on YouTube. Don't miss an episode: subscribe to GZERO's YouTube channel and turn on notifications (🔔).
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