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The Graphic Truth: Race, ethnicity, and party in the USA
The two main political parties have also gotten more diverse, but one has done so much faster than the other. In 1996, 77% of Democrats and 93% of Republicans were white. Since then, white representation in the Democratic party has fallen more than 20 points. In the GOP, it fell 14 points.
Here’s a look at how the racial and ethnic composition of the US population and parties have changed over the past three decades.
Want more? There’s only one demographic subgroup in America in which a majority considers diversity to be a “threat.” Can you guess which it is? See Alex Kliment’s recent column on that here.The GOP goes native
What kind of America do you want to live in? There are many ways to answer that question. But if you are a Republican these days, chances are that your ideal America suddenly looks very … homogenous.
A new poll put out this week by CNN shows that fully 55% of people who identify as Republican or Conservative consider an “increasing number of people of many different races, ethnic groups, and nationalities” to be “threatening” to American culture.
Meanwhile, over in the other political tribe, just 11% of Democrats are worried about foreigners wrecking Americana.
To be clear, the question wasn’t about rates of immigration or policies at the border, something that people can reasonably disagree about even while still embracing the idea of a multiethnic America. And it wasn’t a question about DEI programs at schools or agencies, something that has drawn backlash in recent years.
It was, simply, about what an ideal America looks and sounds like.
And what we see and hear in the study is that more than half of one of the major parties – in a country of immigrants no less – has come to view diverse national backgrounds as a threat to “America’s culture.”
What’s more, that view has emerged among the GOP very quickly.
Back in 2016, when Donald Trump began his unlikely campaign for president with a shot at undocumented immigrants from Mexico, 39% of Republicans felt that way. In 2019, it fell to just 20%, before rising again last year to 40%.
To be fair, this has happened in the context of rising concerns about immigration more broadly, and after several years of record numbers of undocumented immigrant arrivals in the US.
Overall, the percentage of Americans who say diversity of national origins enriches America has fallen from the low 80s in 2019 to the mid-60s today.
But even amid that broader trend, Republicans and Conservatives stand out. They are currently the only demographic group in which a majority sees things this way.
White, Black, male, female, high-earners, low-earners, those with college degrees and those without – in all of these groups, the poll shows, a majority still view ethnic diversity as something that “enriches” American culture.
Even among whites without a college degree, often considered the working-class bedrock of Trumpism, 56% say a broader mosaic of national origins is something good for America.
Why have Republican views shifted more radically than anyone else’s? Some may point to the racial makeup of the GOP itself which, despite steadily absorbing more voters of color, is still 85% Caucasian – or 20 points “whiter” than the Democrats. But that’s not new.
Something else is going on. In a political culture where our identities and perceptions are increasingly shaped by political leanings, one party – one man, even – has been working hard to normalize, and give voice to, a certain kind of nativism.
When Trump speaks of immigrants “poisoning the bloodstream of America,” or repeats falsehoods about foreigners eating cats and dogs, he is fueling a kind of simmering xenophobia that has scary echoes of the past and powerful effects in the present.
There is, room for reasonable debate about how well American society assimilates people from other places. Historically, we actually do a relatively good job – particularly by comparison with much of Europe – in part because being American is, in principle, an idea rather than an ethnicity.
The question is whether, in an America that is observably becoming more diverse while also becoming hazily more skeptical about diversity, the fresh appeal of the GOP’s nativist message is reaching a climax. Or whether Trump is tapping into something deeper, darker, and broader still.
Will the DNC momentum take Democrats all the way?
Watch full episode: Kamala Harris makes her case
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The Obamas sell Harris as hope making a comeback: ‘Yes she can’
Former President Barack Obama took to the stage at the Democratic National Convention in his hometown of Chicago on Tuesday night and turned “Yes we can” into “Yes she can.”
Obama used his address to make the case for Vice President Kamala Harris’ campaign, sharply contrasting her with former President Donald Trump.
“Here is a 78-year-old billionaire who has not stopped whining about his problems since he rode down his golden escalator nine years ago. There's the childish nicknames, the crazy conspiracy theories, this weird obsession with crowd sizes,” Obama said of Trump.
Obama also touted Harris’ record as a prosecutor, praised her stances on issues like health care and abortion, and portrayed the vice president as someone who could restore a sense of kindness and empathy to the country amid a period of historical political divisions.
“The vast majority of us don’t want to live in a country that’s bitter and divided. We want something better. And the joy and excitement we’re seeing around the Harris-Walz campaign tells us we’re not alone,” Obama said, also referring to Harris’ running mate, Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz.
Obama lauded Walz as the “type of person who should be in politics,” painting the Democratic vice presidential nominee – a former teacher and high school football coach – as a genuine, salt-of-the-Earth American.
“You can tell those flannel shirts he wears don’t come from some consultant. They come from his closet, and they’ve been through some stuff,” he said of Walz.
Good vibrations. The former president spoke after his wife, former first lady Michelle Obama, who struck a similar tone. “Something wonderfully magical is in the air,” she said in her remarks. “It's the contagious power of hope.”
“America, hope is making a comeback!" she declared, leading the arena to erupt in approval.
The crowd in Chicago’s United Center seemed to hang on their every word – a sign of the enduring influence the Obamas have over the Democratic Party.
Though both Obamas riled up the convention with optimistic messages about the Harris campaign, they also warned that she faced a tight race — imploring Democrats not to be complacent.
“Now the torch has been passed. Now it's up to all of us to fight for the America we believe in. And make no mistake, it will be a fight,” the former president said.
Meanwhile, Bernie stayed on brand. Earlier in the night, Sen. Bernie Sanders urged voters to support Harris in November and praised the Biden administration’s handling of the challenges presented by the COVID-19 pandemic. But the Vermont senator, perhaps the most prominent progressive in the country, primarily used his address to outline his economic vision for the country — railing against the “billionaire class.”
Sanders, who didn’t rush to endorse Harris after Biden dropped out, has long sought to push the Democratic Party further to the left and to embrace policies that will boost the working class. His Tuesday address was reminiscent of many of the campaign speeches Sanders gave while running for president in 2016 and 2020.
Sanders also touched on the war in Gaza, which has led to protests outside of the arena. “We must summon the courage to stand up to wealth and power and deliver justice for people at home and abroad,” Sanders said, “Abroad, we must end this horrific war in Gaza, bring home the hostages, and demand an immediate cease-fire.”
We’ll be watching to see if the backing of powerful figures like the Obamas and Sanders will be enough to help the Harris-Walz campaign sustain and build on its recent momentum in the 2024 race. Day 3 at the DNC will feature a highly anticipated speech from Walz – who was relatively unknown before being tapped by Harris earlier this month – and he’ll have an opportunity to sell himself to voters on the national stage.
Democrats are running a campaign built on vibes
In standard practice and just days ahead of the party’s Democratic National Convention, Democrats released their 2024 policy platform over the weekend. The rest of the race, however, has been anything but typical.
In the latest twist, Democrats chose not to update their party platform despite the name atop the ticket switching from Joe Biden to Kamala Harris. Instead, they opted to stick with a version approved in mid-July – from before Biden dropped out of the race. The platform frames a battle between “opportunity and optimism” versus “revenge and retribution,” laying bare a fundamental difference between the 2024 Democratic and Republican campaigns: one is about atmospherics, and the other is deeply personal.
In the month that Harris has sat atop the ticket, she has overseen a near-total change in the campaign narrative. Until July 21, 2024, Biden and former President Donald Trump had spent months locked in a protracted and bleak conversation about who was the bigger threat to democracy. Was age the more significant concern? How would the US manage a president with felony convictions? For months, US voters sat on the sidelines of a slow walk to a repeat of the 2020 election, which a meaningful proportion of those polled did not want.
With Biden’s exit from the race in July and the surprisingly seamless convergence around Harris, the storyline has shifted from a rerun to a “new way forward,” to take one of the vice president’s campaign taglines. And as the 2024 party platform reflects, for Dems, this way forward need not be connected to one politician or another.
Despite the newfound support for Harris – her campaign raised a reported $200 million during her first week as the candidate – this is not yet the Harris Democratic party. Harris is a conduit for Democrats who were searching for a lifeline out of a crisis and a path to preserve their November ambitions. If the policy platform is not updated to any specific Harris policy viewpoint, that’s not seen as a hindrance. If her vision of an “opportunity economy” is questioned by economists, it deserves only a bit of hand-wringing. While a Harris presidency would likely move policy in impactful ways, what is driving the moment for Democrats is unity behind defeating Trump.
This campaign tactic or strategy is paying dividends. Harris now leads Trump in head-to-head polling and across key swing states, including Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. For the first time in the 2024 race, the latest monthly polling shows that more voters trust Harris to handle the economy than Trump. These poll results came in even before Harris had the opportunity to present her economic plan last Friday in North Carolina, where she homed in on tackling price gouging, housing insecurity, and rising tax bills.
In stark contrast, the Republican Party is synonymous with Trump. The party’s policy objectives are intertwined with Trump’s political agenda. The 2024 Republican platform, rife with capitalization and exclamation points, promises to seal the border, end the weaponization of government against the American people, and turn the US into a manufacturing superpower. Each is a key Trump view. As a sign of how far the campaign needle has moved, Trump’s allies are now urging him to return to the more disciplined, issue-based messaging he managed earlier in the 2024 campaign. The risk is that as Democrats go conceptual, Trump becomes too personalized and personal.
All of this will be on display at this week’s DNC in the Windy City, where a who’s who of Democratic heavyweights and orators – including both Obamas and Clintons – have assembled. Harris will take the stage on Thursday, the final night, to deliver an address under the aspirational theme “For our Future.”
Just as the race approaches the post-Labor Day homestretch, the world is watching as Democrats inject something into the campaign that has been missing over the long election slog: energy. The party convention represents a key test of both how well Harris can hold the party together, including around fault-line issues like the Israel-Gaza conflict, and whether Democrats can sustain the good vibes over the final push of the campaign season.
Lindsay Newman is a geopolitical risk expert and columnist for GZERO.
What Tim Walz adds to Kamala Harris' campaign
Jon Lieber, Eurasia Group's head of research and managing director for the firm's coverage of United States political and policy developments, shares his perspective on US politics from Washington, DC.
What we're watching in US Politics: Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democratic nominee for president, has chosen her running mate: Gov. Tim Walz of Minnesota.
Walz is a moderate to center-left Democrat who has presided over a trifecta in Minnesota, meaning the Democrats have controlled the state legislature for several years now. They have passed several “wins” for progressive policy, liberalizing the state's marijuana laws, expanding gun control, and expanding access to abortion. This has made Walz a popular choice with many progressives. He’s also been endorsed by several labor unions as a good pick for Kamala Harris. In reality, though, he probably doesn’t make that much of a difference in the presidential campaign.
Harris herself is running as, sort of, a generic Democrat. She’s been avoiding media interviews, running a lot of campaign ads, and giving a lot of set speeches where she can basically read off a teleprompter and carefully curate the image that she’s putting forward to the American people as the candidate in what’s actually going to be a truncated campaign of only about 100 days.
Walz probably helps her with that. He looks like a pretty nice guy. He delivers a lot of great attack lines on President Donald Trump that have Democrats excited, but the evidence suggests that vice presidential picks really don't make all that much of difference in presidential campaigns. Usually, it’s the person at the top of the ticket, and that person is Harris. She continues to benefit from a couple of great weeks after Biden stepped aside from the nomination, and this race is starting to look significantly more competitive than it did right after the disastrous debate for Biden.
A couple of interesting watch points coming up: One will be a potential debate between Walz and the significantly younger Republican VP candidate, Sen. JD Vance, and then whether or not Harris and Trump themselves will debate. Probably, Trump wants the debate to happen so that he can disrupt Harris’ momentum.
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Who will Harris pick as her VP running mate?
Vice President Kamala Harris is the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee, leaving one major question remaining: Who will she choose as her No. 2?
“Harris needs someone who compliments her strengths,” says Eurasia Group’s US director Clayton Allen. “To put it bluntly, a white, male, moderate.” She is also looking for someone who can unify the party, draw in a new coalition of voters, or win in a swing state.
Former Attorney General Eric Holder is reportedly in charge of vetting a list of 10 Democrats being considered for the job.
Josh Shapiro
Then-Attorney General Josh Shapiro announces a $20 million settlement with Trident Mortgage Company over redlining allegations, Philadelphia, PA, July 27, 2022.
Credit: United States government
The Pennsylvania governor, a can-do moderate, could help Harris win his state’s 19 electoral college votes by making inroads with rural, potentially Trump-leaning voters. A poll earlier this year showed that more than three in 10 Trump supporters in Pennsylvania supported Shapiro.
Shapiro, who is Jewish, has been an outspoken supporter of Israel’s policy in Gaza and an opponent of campus protests and divestment calls. The extent to which those stances could alienate progressive Democrats is an open question. Shapiro’s support for school vouchers also ran afoul of Pennsylvania’s largest teachers union, an issue that will likely also attract attention.
Mark Kelly
Sen. Mark Kelly, D-Ariz., introduces Vice President Kamala Harris at the first meeting of the National Space Council, United States Institute of Peace, Washington, Dec. 1, 2021.
Credit: NASA/Joel Kowsky
Like Shapiro, the Arizona Senator also hails from a swing state, and his tough stance on border security could help Harris – who was given the southern border as a portion of her issue portfolio – withstand attacks on the administration’s border record. Plus, “he has a nice story,” says Eurasia Group US expert Jon Lieber. “He’s an astronaut and loyal husband to his wife, who was a victim of gun violence.” Kelly is married to former congresswoman Gabrielle Giffords, who was severely wounded in a mass shooting in Tucson in 2011.
His downside: If he ran it would mean abandoning a Democratic Senate seat in a swing state, forcing the Dems to defend it again two years earlier than expected.
Andy Beshear
Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear addresses more than 900 Soldiers and Airmen from the Kentucky National Guard during Leadership Development Day at the Kentucky Exposition Center in Louisville, Ky., Feb. 5, 2023.
Credit: Dale Greer/U.S. Air National Guard
The governor of Kentucky “brings a southern state moderate appeal that boosts Harris’ blue-collar appeal,” says Allen. Beshear has won two terms in a solidly Republican state that Trump won by 26 points in 2020. He is vocal about his Christianity and has emphasized the need to work with Republicans on legislation – traits that could boost Democratic support among moderates and independents. But Trump is almost certainly going to win in Kentucky, putting Beshear at a disadvantage to the other swing-state governors.
Roy Cooper
Gov. Roy Cooper speaks about the rise in COVID-19 cases in North Carolina during a press conference in Raleigh, N.C., Oct. 21, 2020.
Credit: NC Dept of Public Safety
At 67, Cooper has had a long political career as the former state’s attorney general and North Carolina senator, making him among the most qualified of the VP picks – but age has proven to be a double-edged sword in this election season. Cooper’s successes as a Democratic candidate in an increasingly Republican state may sweeten his odds for VP in helping turn the Tar Heel State, a key battleground state, blue for the first time since 2008.
JB Pritzker
Gov. J.B. Pritzker addresses members of the audience after being sworn into office at the Bank of Springfield Center, Jan. 14, 2019, in Springfield.
Credit: Vishesh Anand/Illinois Public Media
The Illinois governor’s family owns the Hyatt hotel chain, and his deep pockets could help Harris raise money – though having received a $100 million money shower after Biden stepped down, the vice president isn’t exactly desperate for cash. Pritzker, who is also Jewish, has been more moderate on the Gaza issue than Shapiro. But as a 1-percenter, Pritzker won’t help Harris connect with the working-class midwestern Biden-2020 voters she needs, says Lieber. And Illinois isn’t a state in danger anyway: Biden won it by 17 points.
Pete Buttigieg
US Secretary of Transportation Pete Buttigieg speaking at the International Transport Forum’s 2022 Summit in Leipzig, Germany, May 18, 2022.
Credit: International Transport Forum
The 42-year-old secretary of transportation is an unlikely choice despite being, in Allen’s words, “a lightning rod for self-harming Republican commentary,” referring to the fact that Buttigieg is often the target of homophobic rhetoric from the right. Buttigieg, a former management consultant who is known for his meticulous challenges to Republican talking points in Congress and on TV, would be the first openly gay veep. But he is an unlikely choice because his appeal is limited to urban liberal voters who are already almost certain to vote for Harris.
Tim Walz
Gov. Tim Walz and St. Paul Mayor Melvin Carter visit the Ramsey County Mobile Vaccine Clinic at Allianz Field in St. Paul, Minn., June 23, 2021.
Credit: Ramsey County Minnesota
The Minnesota governor and veteran of the US Army National Guard has snuck his name onto the list even though he lacks much national recognition. Walz’s efforts to protect abortion rights and his introduction of free school meals for students and gender-affirming care fit nicely with Harris’ policy preferences, and his rural sensibility bodes well with moderate Americans. Plus, Minnesota – once a Democratic stronghold – has been leaning further right in recent years. However, that’s not likely enough to land Walz the VP pick, as neither he nor his state is competitive enough to truly sway this election.
Gretchen Whitmer
Then-Senator Gretchen Whitmer (L) speaks at a Vote No on Proposal 5 press conference at the Michigan Municipal League offices in Lansing, Oct. 9, 2012.
Credit: Michigan Municipal League
The Michigan governor was rumored as an alternative replacement to Biden but has since endorsed Harris – and is likely waiting for 2028 to throw her hat in the ring. The former senator and prosecutor’s impressive and progressive record aligns with Harris’ as a strong defender of abortion rights, advocate for improved gun legislation, and co-chair of the Biden-Harris campaign. She would be a strong counterweight to the hyper-male Republican bid; however, for a country that has yet to elect a female president, an all-female ticket may be a stretch.
For Allen, “the two most obvious, at least for now, are Arizona Sen. Mark Kelly and Josh Shapiro.” Who do you think she is most likely to choose? Who do you think she should pick? Let us know here
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Obamas endorse Kamala Harris for president
Barack and Michelle ObamaendorsedKamala Harris as the Democratic nominee for US president on Friday, joining other high-profile Democratic Party leaders in backing the vice president’s bid for the White House.
“We called to say Michelle and I couldn’t be prouder to endorse you and to do everything we can to get you through this election and into the Oval Office,” the former president told Harris.
The announcement capped a big first week for Harris. Her campaign raised a whopping $231 million in just a few days, and Harris has already started to narrow Donald Trump’s lead in key swing states. Although she is still behind in four of the five states, she has substantiallyclosed the gap left by President Joe Biden.
Trump’s biggest lead is in Arizona, where he stands 5 points above Harris. But when Biden was the nominee, Trump was ahead by 10 points. The former president is now ahead of Harris by only 2 points in Georgia and Pennsylvania; by 1 point in Michigan; and in Wisconsin, the candidates are tied.
As Harris narrows the gap, she is alsobreaking fundraising records and galvanizing youth voters. But it is too soon to tell whether this momentum is sustainable or just a short-term swell of enthusiasm following Biden’s decision to exit the race.
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Interested in who Harris might choose as her vice-presidential running mate? Click here to learn about the contenders.