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Annie Gugliotta

The Graphic Truth: Race, ethnicity, and party in the USA

America, and Americans, look different today than they did 30 years ago. The country’s population has grown more ethnically diverse, and so too have registered voters. In 1996, the country was 72% white. By 2023, that had fallen to 59%, largely as a result of strong growth in the Hispanic and Asian populations.
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American flag reflections in Times Square

The GOP goes native

What kind of America do you want to live in? There are many ways to answer that question. But if you are a Republican these days, chances are that your ideal America suddenly looks very … homogenous.

A new poll put out this week by CNN shows that fully 55% of people who identify as Republican or Conservative consider an “increasing number of people of many different races, ethnic groups, and nationalities” to be “threatening” to American culture.

Meanwhile, over in the other political tribe, just 11% of Democrats are worried about foreigners wrecking Americana.

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Will the DNC momentum take Democrats all the way?
- YouTube

Will the DNC momentum take Democrats all the way?

After a week of unity and optimism coming out of the Democratic National Convention in Chicago, what’s next for Democrats between now and November? Can they maintain the momentum through to election day? On GZERO World,Ian Bremmer asked former Congresswoman Donna Edwards and presidential historian Douglas Brinkley about their biggest concerns coming out of the DNC as we head into the final months of the 2024 election season. Brinkley, who’s covered presidential elections for over three decades, says any bounce in Dems’ poll numbers will be a good indicator of how successful the DNC was at bringing in independent voters and worries Trump’s erratic behavior could create chaos and confusion at the upcoming presidential debate. Edwards, meanwhile, is concerned about Democrats maintaining enthusiasm until November when they will need voters to brave snow and sleet, stand in long lines, and cast early ballots. Will the wave of donation money that’s come in since Harris became the nominee make the difference? She also worries about Trump’s outbursts and personal attacks but says that if he doesn’t change his tactics, he’ll “lose even more independent and Republican voters.”
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Former President Barack Obama speaks during the second day of the Democratic National Convention at the United Center.

Josh Morgan-USA TODAY via Reuters

The Obamas sell Harris as hope making a comeback: ‘Yes she can’

Former President Barack Obama took to the stage at the Democratic National Convention in his hometown of Chicago on Tuesday night and turned “Yes we can” into “Yes she can.”

Obama used his address to make the case for Vice President Kamala Harris’ campaign, sharply contrasting her with former President Donald Trump.

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Attendees walk past a sign at the United Center ahead of the Democratic National Convention in Chicago, Illinois, on Aug. 19, 2024.

REUTERS/Mike Blake

Democrats are running a campaign built on vibes

In standard practice and just days ahead of the party’s Democratic National Convention, Democrats released their 2024 policy platform over the weekend. The rest of the race, however, has been anything but typical.

In the latest twist, Democrats chose not to update their party platform despite the name atop the ticket switching from Joe Biden to Kamala Harris. Instead, they opted to stick with a version approved in mid-July – from before Biden dropped out of the race. The platform frames a battle between “opportunity and optimism” versus “revenge and retribution,” laying bare a fundamental difference between the 2024 Democratic and Republican campaigns: one is about atmospherics, and the other is deeply personal.

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What Tim Walz adds to Kamala Harris' campaign
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What Tim Walz adds to Kamala Harris' campaign

Jon Lieber, Eurasia Group's head of research and managing director for the firm's coverage of United States political and policy developments, shares his perspective on US politics from Washington, DC.

What we're watching in US Politics: Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democratic nominee for president, has chosen her running mate: Gov. Tim Walz of Minnesota.

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Vice President Kamala Harris speaks at the Harris for President Campaign Rally on Tuesday July 23, 2024 at West Allis Central High School in West Allis, Wis.
Credit: USA TODAY NETWORK via Reuters Connect

Who will Harris pick as her VP running mate?

Vice President Kamala Harris is the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee, leaving one major question remaining: Who will she choose as her No. 2?

“Harris needs someone who compliments her strengths,” says Eurasia Group’s US director Clayton Allen. “To put it bluntly, a white, male, moderate.” She is also looking for someone who can unify the party, draw in a new coalition of voters, or win in a swing state.

Former Attorney General Eric Holder is reportedly in charge of vetting a list of 10 Democrats being considered for the job.

Josh Shapiro

Then-Attorney General Josh Shapiro announces a $20 million settlement with Trident Mortgage Company over redlining allegations, Philadelphia, PA, July 27, 2022.

Then-Attorney General Josh Shapiro announces a $20 million settlement with Trident Mortgage Company over redlining allegations, Philadelphia, PA, July 27, 2022.

Credit: United States government

The Pennsylvania governor, a can-do moderate, could help Harris win his state’s 19 electoral college votes by making inroads with rural, potentially Trump-leaning voters. A poll earlier this year showed that more than three in 10 Trump supporters in Pennsylvania supported Shapiro.

Shapiro, who is Jewish, has been an outspoken supporter of Israel’s policy in Gaza and an opponent of campus protests and divestment calls. The extent to which those stances could alienate progressive Democrats is an open question. Shapiro’s support for school vouchers also ran afoul of Pennsylvania’s largest teachers union, an issue that will likely also attract attention.

Mark Kelly

Sen. Mark Kelly, D-Ariz., introduces Vice President Kamala Harris at the first meeting of the National Space Council, United States Institute of Peace, Washington, Dec. 1, 2021.

Sen. Mark Kelly, D-Ariz., introduces Vice President Kamala Harris at the first meeting of the National Space Council, United States Institute of Peace, Washington, Dec. 1, 2021.

Credit: NASA/Joel Kowsky

Like Shapiro, the Arizona Senator also hails from a swing state, and his tough stance on border security could help Harris – who was given the southern border as a portion of her issue portfolio – withstand attacks on the administration’s border record. Plus, “he has a nice story,” says Eurasia Group US expert Jon Lieber. “He’s an astronaut and loyal husband to his wife, who was a victim of gun violence.” Kelly is married to former congresswoman Gabrielle Giffords, who was severely wounded in a mass shooting in Tucson in 2011.

His downside: If he ran it would mean abandoning a Democratic Senate seat in a swing state, forcing the Dems to defend it again two years earlier than expected.

Andy Beshear

\u200bKentucky Gov. Andy Beshear addresses more than 900 Soldiers and Airmen from the Kentucky National Guard during Leadership Development Day at the Kentucky Exposition Center in Louisville, Ky., Feb. 5, 2023.

Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear addresses more than 900 Soldiers and Airmen from the Kentucky National Guard during Leadership Development Day at the Kentucky Exposition Center in Louisville, Ky., Feb. 5, 2023.

Credit: Dale Greer/U.S. Air National Guard

The governor of Kentucky “brings a southern state moderate appeal that boosts Harris’ blue-collar appeal,” says Allen. Beshear has won two terms in a solidly Republican state that Trump won by 26 points in 2020. He is vocal about his Christianity and has emphasized the need to work with Republicans on legislation – traits that could boost Democratic support among moderates and independents. But Trump is almost certainly going to win in Kentucky, putting Beshear at a disadvantage to the other swing-state governors.

Roy Cooper

\u200bGov. Roy Cooper speaks about the rise in COVID-19 cases in North Carolina during a press conference in Raleigh, N.C., Oct. 21, 2020.

Gov. Roy Cooper speaks about the rise in COVID-19 cases in North Carolina during a press conference in Raleigh, N.C., Oct. 21, 2020.

Credit: NC Dept of Public Safety

At 67, Cooper has had a long political career as the former state’s attorney general and North Carolina senator, making him among the most qualified of the VP picks – but age has proven to be a double-edged sword in this election season. Cooper’s successes as a Democratic candidate in an increasingly Republican state may sweeten his odds for VP in helping turn the Tar Heel State, a key battleground state, blue for the first time since 2008.

JB Pritzker

\u200bGov. J.B. Pritzker addresses members of the audience after being sworn into office at the Bank of Springfield Center, Jan. 14, 2019, in Springfield.

Gov. J.B. Pritzker addresses members of the audience after being sworn into office at the Bank of Springfield Center, Jan. 14, 2019, in Springfield.

Credit: Vishesh Anand/Illinois Public Media

The Illinois governor’s family owns the Hyatt hotel chain, and his deep pockets could help Harris raise money – though having received a $100 million money shower after Biden stepped down, the vice president isn’t exactly desperate for cash. Pritzker, who is also Jewish, has been more moderate on the Gaza issue than Shapiro. But as a 1-percenter, Pritzker won’t help Harris connect with the working-class midwestern Biden-2020 voters she needs, says Lieber. And Illinois isn’t a state in danger anyway: Biden won it by 17 points.

Pete Buttigieg

US Secretary of Transportation Pete Buttigieg speaking at the International Transport Forum\u2019s 2022 Summit in Leipzig, Germany, May 18, 2022.

US Secretary of Transportation Pete Buttigieg speaking at the International Transport Forum’s 2022 Summit in Leipzig, Germany, May 18, 2022.

Credit: International Transport Forum

The 42-year-old secretary of transportation is an unlikely choice despite being, in Allen’s words, “a lightning rod for self-harming Republican commentary,” referring to the fact that Buttigieg is often the target of homophobic rhetoric from the right. Buttigieg, a former management consultant who is known for his meticulous challenges to Republican talking points in Congress and on TV, would be the first openly gay veep. But he is an unlikely choice because his appeal is limited to urban liberal voters who are already almost certain to vote for Harris.

Tim Walz

\u200bGov. Tim Walz and St. Paul Mayor Melvin Carter visit the Ramsey County Mobile Vaccine Clinic at Allianz Field in St. Paul, Minn., June 23, 2021.

Gov. Tim Walz and St. Paul Mayor Melvin Carter visit the Ramsey County Mobile Vaccine Clinic at Allianz Field in St. Paul, Minn., June 23, 2021.

Credit: Ramsey County Minnesota

The Minnesota governor and veteran of the US Army National Guard has snuck his name onto the list even though he lacks much national recognition. Walz’s efforts to protect abortion rights and his introduction of free school meals for students and gender-affirming care fit nicely with Harris’ policy preferences, and his rural sensibility bodes well with moderate Americans. Plus, Minnesota – once a Democratic stronghold – has been leaning further right in recent years. However, that’s not likely enough to land Walz the VP pick, as neither he nor his state is competitive enough to truly sway this election.

Gretchen Whitmer

\u200bThen-Senator Gretchen Whitmer (L) speaks at a Vote No on Proposal 5 press conference at the Michigan Municipal League offices in Lansing, Oct. 9, 2012.

Then-Senator Gretchen Whitmer (L) speaks at a Vote No on Proposal 5 press conference at the Michigan Municipal League offices in Lansing, Oct. 9, 2012.

Credit: Michigan Municipal League

The Michigan governor was rumored as an alternative replacement to Biden but has since endorsed Harris – and is likely waiting for 2028 to throw her hat in the ring. The former senator and prosecutor’s impressive and progressive record aligns with Harris’ as a strong defender of abortion rights, advocate for improved gun legislation, and co-chair of the Biden-Harris campaign. She would be a strong counterweight to the hyper-male Republican bid; however, for a country that has yet to elect a female president, an all-female ticket may be a stretch.

For Allen, “the two most obvious, at least for now, are Arizona Sen. Mark Kelly and Josh Shapiro.” Who do you think she is most likely to choose? Who do you think she should pick? Let us know here

Vice President Kamala Harris speaks at the Harris for President Campaign Rally on Tuesday July 23, 2024 at West Allis Central High School in West Allis, Wis.

USA TODAY NETWORK via Reuters Connect

Obamas endorse Kamala Harris for president

Barack and Michelle ObamaendorsedKamala Harris as the Democratic nominee for US president on Friday, joining other high-profile Democratic Party leaders in backing the vice president’s bid for the White House.

“We called to say Michelle and I couldn’t be prouder to endorse you and to do everything we can to get you through this election and into the Oval Office,” the former president told Harris.

The announcement capped a big first week for Harris. Her campaign raised a whopping $231 million in just a few days, and Harris has already started to narrow Donald Trump’s lead in key swing states. Although she is still behind in four of the five states, she has substantiallyclosed the gap left by President Joe Biden.

Trump’s biggest lead is in Arizona, where he stands 5 points above Harris. But when Biden was the nominee, Trump was ahead by 10 points. The former president is now ahead of Harris by only 2 points in Georgia and Pennsylvania; by 1 point in Michigan; and in Wisconsin, the candidates are tied.

As Harris narrows the gap, she is alsobreaking fundraising records and galvanizing youth voters. But it is too soon to tell whether this momentum is sustainable or just a short-term swell of enthusiasm following Biden’s decision to exit the race.

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Interested in who Harris might choose as her vice-presidential running mate? Click here to learn about the contenders.

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