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How will Trump 2.0 impact AI?
In this episode of GZERO AI, Taylor Owen, host of the Machines Like Us podcast, reflects on the five broad worries of the implication of the US election on artificial intelligence.
I spent the past week in the UK and Europe talking to a ton of people in the tech and democracy community. And of course, everybody just wanted to talk about the implications of the US election. It's safe to say that there's some pretty grave concerns, so I thought I could spend a few minutes, a few more than I usually do in these videos outlining the nature and type of these concerns, particularly amongst those who are concerned about the conflation of power between national governments and tech companies. In short, I heard five broad worries.
First, that we're going to see an unprecedented confluence of tech power and political power. In short, the influence of US tech money is going to be turbocharged. This, of course, always existed, but the two are now far more fully joined. This means that the interests of a small number of companies will be one in the same as the interests of the US government. Musk's interests, Tesla, Starlink, Neuralink are sure to be front and center. But also companies like Peter Thiel's Palantir and Palmer Luckey's Anduril are likely to get massive new defense contracts. And the crypto investments of some of Silicon Valley's biggest VCs are sure to be boosted and supported.
The flip side of this concentrated power to some of Silicon Valley's more libertarian conservatives is that tech companies on the wrong side of this realignment might find trouble. Musk adding Microsoft to his OpenAI lawsuit is an early tell of this. It'll be interesting to see where Zuckerberg and Bezos land given Trump's animosity to both.
Second, for democratic countries outside of the US, we're going to see a severe erosion of digital governance sovereignty. Simply put, it's going to become tremendously hard for countries to govern digital technologies including online platforms, AI, biotech, and crypto in ways that aren't aligned with US interests. The main lever that the Trump administration has to pull in this regard are bilateral trade agreements. These are going to be the big international sticks that are likely to overwhelm tech policy enforcement and new tech policy itself.
In Canada, for example, our News Media Bargaining Code, our Online Streaming Act and our Digital Services Tax are all already under fire by US trade disputes. When the USMCA is likely reopened, expect for these all to be on the table, and for the Canadian government, whoever is in power to fold, putting our reliance on US trade policy over our digital policy agenda. The broader spillover effect of this trade pressure is that countries are unlikely to develop new digital policies over the time of the Trump term. And for those policies that aren't repealed, enforcement of existing laws are likely to be slowed down or halted entirely. Europe, for example, is very unlikely to enforce Digital Services Act provisions against X.
Third, we're likely to see the silencing of US researchers and civil society groups working in the tech and democracy space. This will be done ironically in the name of free speech. Early attacks from Jim Jordan against disinformation researchers at US universities are only going to be ramped up. Marc Andreessen and Musk have both called for researchers working on election interference and misinformation to be prosecuted. And Trump has called for the suspension of nonprofit status to universities that have housed this work.
Faced with this kind of existential threat, universities are very likely to abandon these scholars and their labs entirely. Civil society groups working on these same issues are going to be targeted and many are sure to close under this pressure. It's simply tragic that efforts to better understand how information flows through our digital media ecosystem will be rendered impossible right at the time when they're needed the most. At a time when the health and the integrity of our ecosystem is under attack. All in the name of protecting free speech. this is Kafka-esque to say the least.
Fourth, and in part as a result of all of the above, internationally, we may see new political space opened up for conversations about national communications infrastructure. For decades, the driving force in the media policy debate has been one of globalization and the adoption of largely US-based platforms. This argument has provided real headwind to those who, like in previous generations, urged for the development of national capacities and have protectionist media policy. But I wonder how long the status quo is tenable in a world where the richest person in the world owns a major social media platform and dominates global low-orbit broadband.
Does a country like Canada, for example, want to hand our media infrastructure over to a single individual? One who has shown careless disregard for the one media platform he already controls and shapes? Will other countries follow America's lead if Trump sells US broadcast licenses and targets American journalism? Will killing Section 230 as Trump has said to want to do, and the limits that that will place on platforms moderating even the worst online abuse, further hasten the enforcement of national digital borders?
Fifth and finally, how things play out for AI is actually a bit of a mystery, but I'm sure will likely err on the side of unregulated markets. While Musk may have at once been a champion of AI regulation and had legitimate concerns about unchecked AGI, he now seems more concerned about the political bias of AI than about any sort of existential risk. As the head of a new government agency mandated to cut a third of the federal government budget, Musk is more likely to see AI as a cheap replacement for human labor than as a threat that needs a new agency to regulate.
In all of this, one thing is for certain, we really are in for a bumpy ride. For those that have been concerned about the relationship between political and tech power for well over a decade, our work has only just begun. I'm Taylor Owen and thanks for watching.
Why the world is facing a population crisis
How worried should we be about population collapse? Two-thirds of the people on Earth live in countries with fertility rates below replacement levels of 2.1 children per woman. Experts warn the global population will start falling within 60 years, dramatically impacting the future of work and social security. In the US, Vice President-Elect JD Vance has repeatedly expressed alarm over falling birth rates. Elon Musk has called population decline “a much bigger risk” to civilization than global warming. Places like Japan and Italy are already grappling with shrinking workforces, skyrocketing retirement costs, and healthcare systems stretched to their limits. So, we are heading toward demographic catastrophe, and can governments do anything about it? On GZERO World, Ian Bremmer sits with Jennifer Sciubba, president and CEO of the Population Reference Bureau, to discuss population decline, the global fertility crisis, and why now is the time to reorient our economic and social welfare systems for an aging future.
“The governments that do not adjust their systems to deal with what you actually have, which is an aging smaller population in the future,” Sciubba warns, “They will have a problem."
GZERO World with Ian Bremmer, the award-winning weekly global affairs series, airs nationwide on US public television stations (check local listings).
New digital episodes of GZERO World are released every Monday on YouTube. Don't miss an episode: subscribe to GZERO's YouTube channel and turn on notifications (🔔).
The global population is aging. Is the world prepared?
Listen: The world is on the brink of one of the most fundamental demographic shifts in modern human history: populations are getting older, and birth rates are plummeting. By 2050, one in six people on Earth will be over 65, which will have a huge impact on the future of work, healthcare, and social security. On the GZERO World Podcast, Ian Bremmer sits down with Jennifer Sciubba, President & CEO of the Population Reference Bureau, to discuss declining fertility, the aging crisis, and why government efforts all over the world to get people to have more babies don’t seem to be working. Is a slow-moving crisis inevitable? What does all this mean for the future of immigration, women's rights, and global power? Most importantly, is it even possible to turn back the demographic clock, or is it time to start adapting to support the populations we already have?
Subscribe to the GZERO World Podcast on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, or your preferred podcast platform, to receive new episodes as soon as they're published.
- The Graphic Truth: US and China not making enough babies ›
- The Graphic Truth: Where populations are rising ... or falling ›
- Russia is losing Russians ›
- China has a big population problem ›
- Will Japan grow its population before it's too late? ›
- Scott Galloway on population decline and the secret sauce of US success ›
Elon Musk’s next target: Italy
Elon Musk has been busy – speaking at Trump rallies, launching rockets into space, transforming Twitter/X into something unrecognizable, and being named to help lead a new government department under President-elect Donald Trump. Naturally, Musk is still finding time to fight with the Italian government.
On Wednesday, Musk took to X to criticize Italian judges for ruling (twice) against his pal, Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni. Shehoped to send thousands of migrants for screening outside the EU in Albania to ease pressure on one of the busiest migration routes to Europe. The cases will now go to the EU Court of Justice in Luxembourg, with no timeline set for a decision.
“These judges need to go,” Muskwrote to his 200 million-plus followers (and everyone else on the platform whocan’t escape him even with the block button). He asked, "Do the people of Italy live in a democracy or does an unelected autocracy make the decisions?”
Italian President Sergio Mattarella hit back at Musk’s foray into Italian politics, without mentioning him by name. Italy “knows how to take care of itself while respecting its Constitution,”said Mattarella, and others “must respect its sovereignty.”
Since Musk’s takeover of Twitter/X in late 2022, the site has becomemore popular with conservatives after removing bans on controversial far-right influencers and relaxing content moderation. Twitter’s new direction spookedadvertisers and led news outlet NPR to cease posting altogether. Now, The Guardian is quitting the platform too. “X is a toxic media platform,” the UK-based outlet said, and “Elon Musk has been able to use its influence to shape political discourse.”
Disgruntled (often liberal) users are on the hunt for microblogging alternatives. While Threads has the advantage of integrating with fellow Meta apps, competitor BlueSky – which was launched by then-CEO of Twitter Jack Dorsey in 2019 – is making waves with its different user-created algorithmic feeds,reaching 15 million users for the first time this week.
Shameless plug: Don’t forget to GZERO onTwitter/X … Threads … and BlueSky.Tesla CEO and X owner Elon Musk speaks as Republican presidential nominee and former U.S. president Donald Trump reacts during a rally at the site of the July assassination attempt against Trump, in Butler, Pennsylvania, U.S., October 5, 2024.
Trump tasks Musk, Ramaswamy to take on government efficiency
Donald Trump on Tuesday tapped Elon Musk, the richest person on the planet, and former GOP presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswamy to lead an effort to improve government efficiency.
The president-elect said they will lead the "Department of Government Efficiency,” though a new federal agency cannot be created without an act of Congress. It’s unclear precisely how the so-called agency will function, but Trump said it will “provide advice and guidance from outside of Government.”
The move raises immediate questions about conflicts of interests, particularly given the billions Musk’s companies receive in the form of lucrative government contracts. Musk’s companies have also recently been targeted by the federal government in at least 20 separate investigations or lawsuits.
We’ll be watching to see how this efficiency department takes shape, and whether there is any major pushback on Capitol Hill.
Donald Trump is seen here at a Jets football game next to his campaign manager Susie Wiles, on Oct. 20, 2024. The president-elect has just named Wiles his White House chief of staff.
Who will Trump’s team be?
At last count — yep, they’re still counting ballots from last week’s US election — Republicans looked set for a clean sweep: taking not only the White House and Senate but possibly the House too. With 18 House races yet to be called, the GOP is leading in seven and needs to win just four for a majority.
Attention now turns to the president-elect’s naming of names for the first cabinet of “Trump 2.0.”
Here’s what we know:
Trump has made just one appointment so far: He has named Susie Wiles as the first-ever female White House chief of staff. The 67-year-old veteran Florida political operative ran Trump’s presidential campaign, helping to secure his stunning comeback.
We also know for sure that two people won’t be in Trump’s cabinet: Nikki Haley, who served Trump as UN ambassador but also ran against him in the 2024 primary, and Mike Pompeo, who was Trump’s secretary of state during his first administration.
No other appointees have been made official, so lots of Republicans are jostling for 15 Cabinet positions and various advisory roles.
Names being floated for secretary of state, the US top foreign policy role, include Richard Grenell, former ambassador to Germany and acting DNI director; former national security adviser Robert O’Brien, former Iran envoy Brian Hook, GOP Sen. Bill Hagerty of Tennessee, and Florida Sen. Marco Rubio.
The US Treasury secretary position, which is the top financial position in the US government, is likely to go to one of five men: Robert Lighthizer, the arch-protectionist who helmed the US tariff war with China as Trump 1.0’s US trade representative; billionaire hedge fund managers Scott Bessent and John Paulson; former SEC chair Jay Clayton; and Larry Kudlow, Trump’s former National Economic Council director.
For interior secretary, which oversees management of federal lands, including their use as energy sources, the top names include South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem, as well as North Dakota’s billionaire Gov. Doug Burgum — both were once considered veep candidates for Trump. Burgum, meanwhile, is also on the shortlist for energy secretary, along with Dan Brouillette, who held the post last time around.
We’ll be keeping an eye on official appointments for these and the other Cabinet positions, as well as for indications of what portfolios go to key supporters like Robert F. Kennedy Jr. — who may be named a White House health and wellness adviser or even become secretary of health and human services – and Elon Musk, who has himself suggested being named to helm a new department focused on government efficiency.Elon Musk.
Musk promised to rid X of bots, but they love his tweets
When Elon Musk acquired X (formerly Twitter), he pledged to rid it of bots, or fake accounts that tend to serve as trolls and conduits for misinformation. “We will defeat the spam bots or die trying,” Musk tweeted in 2022, a few months before he officially bought the social media platform.
But a new analysis by Cyabra, in partnership with GZERO, found that roughly 20% of the accounts interacting with election-related tweets from Musk were, in fact, bots.
Cyabra analyzed five notable Musk posts that pertained to issues like the endorsement and competence of the two presidential candidates, concerns over free speech under a potential Harris administration, and immigration policies. It found that “bot-driven accounts dominated much of the conversation, with their sentiment and content suggesting an agenda to influence public perception and even hinting at potential coordinated activity among bot communities.”
These inauthentic accounts “were responsible for driving a disproportionately large share of the engagement and traffic.”
In two additional posts analyzed, ones in which Musk firmly positioned himself against the Harris-Walz ticket, 40% of the activity was driven by inauthentic accounts. “A closer examination of the engagement revealed coordinated activity between these inauthentic accounts, with two distinct bot clusters working in tandem to amplify traffic and drive engagement,” Cyabra’s report said.
While Musk often laments the spread of disinformation in the digital era in which we live, he frequently spreads it himself to hundreds of millions of followers — and the site he owns continues to be at the heart of the problem.
Tesla CEO and X owner Elon Musk speaks as Republican presidential nominee and former U.S. president Donald Trump looks on during a rally at the site of the July assassination attempt against Trump, in Butler, Pennsylvania, U.S., October 5, 2024.
Election Countdown: Harris, Trump, and Musk focus in on the swing states
It's two weeks until Election Day, and both candidates are scrambling to pull ahead in the seven swing states that could decide the election.
Kamala Harris hit three battleground states on Monday – Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan – accompanied by former GOP Rep. Liz Cheney. The two aimed to win over Trump-skeptic Republicans and independent voters in the suburbs to secure a “blue wall” against the GOP-dominated rural stretches of the states.
Meanwhile, Donald Trump campaigned in western North Carolina, criticizing FEMA’s response to Hurricane Helene in a region where many people are still without water, internet, and power. These counties are also 61% Republican, and Trump is trying to galvanize residents by attacking the government’s response to the storm, baselessly accusing FEMA of spending funds on undocumented immigrants, “They don’t have any money ... It’s all gone. They’ve spent it on illegal migrants, many of them are murderers.”
Monday was also the deadline to register to vote in Pennsylvania, the election’s most critical swing state and the site of Elon Musk’s controversial sweepstakes giving $1 million to one registered voter who signs his petition every day until the election. The scheme is raising alarm bells among election law experts because it could be considered financially incentivizing registering to vote or voting, which is illegal. But on its face, it is only a reward for signing a petition that affirms the rights to free speech and to bear arms.
Its potential impact is up for debate. Of the 9.95 million people of voting age in Pennsylvania, 90.8% of them are already registered, a slight uptick from the 2020 presidential election. However, it undoubtedly raises awareness and anticipation of the upcoming vote, which could lead to more of Musk’s fans — who disproportionately lean to the right — casting their ballots.
Wondering which swing states each candidate needs to win to secure the White House? Read this for everything you need to know.