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Here’s what you missed while you were away
As summer winds down this weekend, here are the geopolitical stories you may have missed while your inbox was on “out of office” — the ones we expect will have the biggest impact this fall.
In Sudan, the skies have turned deadly
Drones have become the new face of modern warfare, dominating headlines as Russia and Ukraine trade near-daily aerial strikes. But unmanned aircraft vehicles (UAVs) are wreaking havoc in another of the world’s deadliest, and least covered, conflicts: Sudan.
With drones now entering the fray, the conflict risks escalating into a dangerous new phase, allowing both sides to keep inflicting damage with minimal risks to themselves.
Ever since the SAF recaptured the capital Khartoum in March, the two sides have been locked in a strategic stalemate, with drones enabling both groups to carry out precision strikes hundreds of miles behind enemy lines.
Is Sudan a sign of future of warfare? Read more here.
A surge of political violence has revived Colombia’s worst fears
When a gunman shot Colombian presidential candidate Miguel Uribe in June, it sparked memories of the deadly decades-long internal conflict from late last century when political assassination attempts were a common occurrence.
Fast forward nearly three months, Uribe is now dead, and the violence between dissidents and the military has intensified – there have been multiple reports of mass kidnappings of government soldiers. Left-wing President Gustavo Petro has pledged to clamp down on the violence, but he can’t seem to put a lid on things: the number of kidnappings and killings of human rights activists have soared over the last few years.
This will likely cost the left, politically speaking. The rising violence is prompting more and more Colombians to seek a tough-on-crime leader, damaging Petro’s hopes that a socialist candidate will win next year’s presidential election – the incumbent leader can’t run again.
The shift in Colombia’s politics is also something of a proxy for the rest of South America. Other countries with left-wing leaders, like Bolivia and Chile, have also tilted right, seeking leaders who will keep them safe. Bolivians ousted the socialists from power for the first time in decades. Chile’s elections in November will be the next test for the South American left, before Colombia’s election next May.
Will the rising violence hurt the Colombian left? Read more here.
Is MAGA bailing on Bibi?
In early July, there were some rumblings of discontent within the Trump administration at Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. An Israeli shell had struck a church in Gaza, settlers had attacked a Christian Palestinian village, and the Israeli Defense Forces had bombed the Syrian Defense Ministry in Damascus – against the White House’s wishes.
But the disquiet was only the tip of the iceberg: Trump supporters, especially younger ones, are becoming more and more critical of Israel, questioning the US’s support for the Jewish State. Though younger Republicans aren’t nearly as critical as younger Democrats, this trend is a concerning one for Israel, as the country has relied heavily on US military aid. Republicans have been particularly sympathetic toward Israel in recent history, so to lose their backing would be drastic.
Soon after the piece was published, US Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene – a MAGA firebrand – became the first House Republican to label Israel’s actions in Gaza as a “genocide,” affirming that the GOP is no longer united behind supporting Israel. Read the original GZERO report here.
Is AI why college grads can’t find jobs?
The kids are not alright. Since we opened the Pandora’s Box of chatbots, new grads have faced higher unemployment than the national average for the first time in decades. Which raises the question: are they the canaries in the coal mine that AI-driven job disruption has begun?
“It just seems like there’s not any more entry-level roles,” reports James Kettle, a 25-year-old Columbia University graduate who’s been on the job hunt since May. His experience is echoed in a new Stanford study, which found hiring in AI-exposed occupations for early-career workers is down 13%.
Even if we can’t be certain AI is totally to blame for stealing young people’s existing jobs (yet), it’s making it harder for them to get hired in the first place. Delia Thompson, a 23-year-old University of Virginia graduate who’s been on the hunt for seven months, describes the job process today as “shouting into the void,” as she and other candidates send thousands of AI-assisted resumes through LinkedIn, only for companies to use their own algorithms to sift through the pile – a loop of bots talking to bots. “It makes it feel like a total lottery,” says Thompson.
This is reshaping their political views and how many young people are viewing AI overall. Read more here.
Graphic Truth: Federal employment already dropping
The US Supreme Court on Tuesday allowed President Donald Trump to proceed with widespread cuts to the federal workforce, pending a full trial, overruling a San Francisco judge’s order in May that temporarily blocked layoffs at 22 agencies. Prior to the Supreme Court’s ruling, thousands of government employees had been preparing for mass layoffs, with many notified of their pending terminations but awaiting official confirmation.
Here’s a look at the changing size of the federal workforce, which includes the US military, since Trump first took power in 2017.
Two hands, one human and one robotic, touching each other in front of a pink background.
Automation is coming. Are you ready?
In the next five years, 170 million new jobs will be created by macro trends including the rise of AI, but another 92 million will be displaced.
The report indicates that AI will fuel demand for a new cadre of workers, such as “big data specialists, fintech engineers and AI and machine learning specialists,” and demand for software developers will continue to rise. Cashiers, administrative assistants, and bank tellers will be among the displaced jobs.
Thankfully, newsletter writers and editors aren’t listed as easily replaceable — at least not yet.
A drone view shows the Canada-U.S. border between the U.S. state of New York and the Canadian province of Quebec, near Champlain, New York, U.S., December 6, 2024.
Hard Numbers: Canada’s immigration crackdown shows results, BC free contraception measure boosts birth control, Pentagon flags China’s growing nuclear arsenal, Americans aren’t thrilled with their jobs, US government tells top pols to “get off the phone”
0.4: In the third quarter of this year, Canada’s population grew just 0.4%, the lowest quarterly growth rate in two years. Given that immigrants account for almost all of Canada’s population growth, the data suggest that new government measures to slow immigration – including capping foreign student slots and slashing temporary work visas – are having an effect. Immigration skyrocketed during the pandemic, straining housing supply and services, provoking a political backlash.
10: The decision by the BC government last year to make birth control products free has caused a 10% jump in women’s use of contraceptives. Use of pricier options such as IUDs and implants, the cost of which is now fully covered by the state, jumped 14%.
20: China’s arsenal of operational nuclear warheads grew by 20% over the last year, reaching 600, according to the Pentagon. At his clip, Beijing will have 1,000 warheads deployed by 2030. That would still trail the roughly 1,600 nuclear warheads deployed by Russia and the 1,800 deployed by the US, but it only takes a handful to inflict unspeakable destruction. So far, China is not party to any agreements with the US and Russia on limiting nuclear arsenals.
50: How do Americans feel about their jobs? So-so. Only 50% say they are extremely or very satisfied with the daily grind, according to a new Pew study. But the generational divide is stark: 67% of workers aged 65 or older viewed their jobs in the best light, a whopping 24 points higher than people aged 18-29.
8: The US government is telling senior officials and politicians to GET OFF THE PHONE. Literally. Authorities want top pols to ditch phone calls and text messages, after at least eight US telecoms companies were hacked by the “Salt Typhoon” group of China-linked cybercriminals. Authorities say it’s safer to use end-to-end encrypted text apps like Signal, WhatsApp, iMessage, Teams, or Zoom.
FILE PHOTO: Vasiliki Kostoula, a Greek breast cancer patient, listens to her doctor after a radiological medical examination in an Athens hospital October 29, 2008.
Hard Numbers: Tax hacks, Breast cancer, Google dinged, AI job risk
294,138: The Internal Revenue Service received 294,138 complaints of identity theft in 2023 and flagged more than 1 million tax returns as potentially fraudulent. AI is set to supercharge tax fraud this season, letting malicious actors more easily impersonate people and obtain sensitive information needed to file fake tax returns in their name.
250 million: The French competition authority fined Google €250 million ($270 million) for failing to notify news publishers in the country that it was training its large language models on their articles. Google has already been forced to pay publishers in Australia and Canada to license their content, and the thorny question of AI training ushers in a whole new squabble for the internet giant.
10: According to a new US government estimate, 10 percent of workers are at high risk of being displaced by artificial intelligence. The findings, from the White House’s Council of Economic Advisers, show that the highest-risk individuals also are the ones with lowest levels of education and income—a reality that could further disadvantage many struggling Americans.Graphic Truth: Apprenticeships are on the rise
Whether it’s the price of college, the promise of the gig economy, or simply the desire to get paid while training, apprenticeships are having a moment. In the US, this surge has coincided with an 8% drop in undergraduate college enrollment; in Canada, it comes amid high youth unemployment.
In short, young people want options for brighter futures. As a result, apprenticeships are increasingly becoming an alternative to expensive four-year college degrees, or as a way to forge new careers mid-life. Apprentices get all the benefits of other employees, including wages, while getting valuable on-the-job training.
After dipping during the pandemic, the number of apprenticeship registrations jumped 12% in 2022 to an all-time high in Canada. In the US, they rose 22% between 2020 and 2021 and saw an 82.1% jump between 2008 and 2021.
But this isn’t just a COVID-fueled trend. SAIT, one of Canada's largest post-secondary institutions for apprenticeships, has seen a 20% increase in enrollment over the last two years. So apprenticeships are likely to increase even more in the coming years.
A "Help Wanted" sign hangs in a restaurant window.
Jobs are up, but Biden and Trudeau still risk losing theirs
January was an encouraging month for job growth in the US and Canada. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported 353,000 new jobs stateside with unemployment holding steady at 3.7%. Meanwhile, Statistics Canada says jobs were up by 37,000 during the same period and unemployment was down to 5.7% – a modest drop of 0.1%. Both countries exceeded expectations.
You might think better-than-expected economic news would herald brighter fortunes for President Joe Biden and Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, but you would almost certainly be wrong. Both men’s polling numbers are nowhere near where they’d like them to be.
Biden’s favorables are flat with roughly 40% of Americans approving of his job performance compared to 55% who disapprove. Meanwhile, 86% of the country thinks he’s too old to run again. North of the border, Trudeau continues to trail Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre by double digits, and his party is stuck in the mud.
There’s a chance numbers will improve for the incumbents, but the December jobs report in the US also exceeded expectations and didn’t boost Biden’s ratings. The Canadian numbers were softer in December, so Liberals have some hope the latest good news will give Trudeau a boost this time.
But so far, and perhaps counterintuitively, their political fortunes do not seem directly tied to economic performance.
Are leaders asking the right questions about AI?
The official theme of the 2024 World Economic Forum held recently in Davos, Switzerland, was “Rebuilding Trust” in an increasingly fragmented world. But unofficially, the hottest topic on the icy slopes was artificial intelligence.
Hundreds of private sector companies convened to pitch new products and business solutions powered by AI, and nearly two dozen panel discussions featured “AI” in their titles. There was even an “AI House” on the main promenade, just blocks from the Congress Center, where world leaders and CEOs gathered.
So, there were many conversations about the rapidly evolving technology. But were they the right ones?
GZERO’s Tony Maciulis spoke to Marietje Schaake, a former member of the EU parliament who now leads an AI policy program at Stanford. Their conversation focused on the human side of AI and what it could mean for jobs and the workforce.
A recent study from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) revealed that as many as 40% of jobs worldwide could be adversely impacted by AI. Schaake said that kind of upheaval could lead to political unrest and a further rise in populism and encouraged corporations and public sector leaders alike to find solutions now before the equality gap further widens.