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Finnish President Alexander Stubb smiles during an event with a blurred "World Economic Forum" background. The text art reads: "GZERO World with Ian Bremmer—the podcast."
What Trump's return means for Europe, with Finnish President Alexander Stubb
Listen: On the GZERO World Podcast, Finnish President Alexander Stubb joins Ian Bremmer in Davos, Switzerland, where world leaders, business executives, and diplomats gathered for the annual World Economic Forum. Just days after President Trump was sworn in for a second term, the mood in Davos was that of cold pragmatism. As Trump made clear in his speech to the Forum, Europe can no longer rely on the kind of copacetic relationship with the United States it had enjoyed since World War II or even during his first term.
So, what does that mean for Europe—and the war in Ukraine? Finland’s President Alexander Stubb and Ian Bremmer discuss.
Subscribe to the GZERO World Podcast on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, or your preferred podcast platform, to receive new episodes as soon as they're published.
- Trump will keep supporting Ukraine but demand more of NATO: report. ›
- How Trump shook up American democracy — & nearly severed ties with Europe ›
- Europe plans for Putin & Trump 2.0 ›
- Europe's biggest concerns about Trump's return ›
- Is Europe in trouble as the US pulls away? - GZERO Media ›
- Will Marine Le Pen's conviction really keep her out of French politics? - GZERO Media ›
- How Europe might respond to Trump's tariffs - GZERO Media ›
President Donald Trump makes a special address remotely during the 55th annual World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, on Jan. 23, 2025.
Davos Dispatch Day 5: 3 takeaways & 3 things to watch
GZERO’s very own Tony Maciulis is in the Alps all week to report from the 55th World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland.
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The official theme of this year’s World Economic Forum is “A Call for Collaboration in the Intelligent Age,” but after four days of speeches, panels, off-the-record discussions, and coffee bar chitchat, I’ve decided on my unofficial theme: “Trying to turn anxiety and fear into action.”
Davos participants acknowledge there are so many unknowns right now, and I wouldn’t describe the outlook from European delegates as rosy. Multilateral organizations like the World Health Organization risk losing significant funding, Ukraine waits to see who will stick around as the war approaches a third anniversary, and climate activists wonder if their work over the past decade will melt away like glacial ice.
But, on the flip side, we’ve heard quite a bit of pragmatism on stages that are normally filled with talk of “cooperation” and kumbaya. On Thursday, NATO’s new Secretary General Mark Rutte called for increased defense spending, saying, “Donald Trump is right.” Earlier this week, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen proposed simplifying regulations and creating an environment where “made-in-Europe innovation and risk-taking thrive.”
As Littlefinger said in “Game of Thrones,” “Chaos is a ladder.” I’m not sure about that, but some here in Davos see this moment as a much-needed push.
A few highlights from Thursday:
1. Trump does Davos by remote: It was easily the most anticipated moment of the week, and it drew the biggest crowd to Congress Hall I’ve seen during this forum. President Donald Trump appeared via live video, delivering a short speech (by Trump standards) followed by a Q&A with financial industry leaders, many of whom were described as “friends.”
In his remarks, Trump called the past few days “a revolution of common sense,” reciting his litany of executive orders that he said would launch “the golden age of America.” In the room, the crowd was quiet and attentive aside from a noticeable laugh or groan in response to Trump’s assertion that the EU has “treated America very unfairly,” and his insistence that Chinese President Xi Jinping called him first to initiate dialogue.
On tariffs, Trump stressed the importance of making products in America where manufacturers would find low taxes. While he didn’t address specifics on tariffs for goods made abroad, he did say they would happen and be in “varying amounts.”
Overall, Trump was tougher on Europe than he was on China, saying he likes President Xi very much, expects a good relationship, and hopes to enlist China’s help in ending the war in Ukraine. Despite campaign claims that he’d end that conflict in 24 hours, he reiterated to the Davos crowd that a ceasefire would take time and depend on Russia but that “Ukraine is ready.”
Børge Brende, WEF president and CEO, thanked Trump for a “powerful speech” and told him he was sure the US president could hear the applause all the way to the White House.
Truthfully, you could barely hear it in the hallway outside the auditorium. But the warm hospitality here in chilly Davos heated up some members of the crowd who became more chatty after the livestream.
2. Milei says he wants to “Make the West Great Again.” Wow. Anyone who heard Argentina’s President Javier Milei left thinking even Donald Trump would tell him to “Simma down nah.” Milei essentially read the Davos crowd to filth, chastising “wokeism” and its evils while praising a posse of leaders with whom he sees himself closely aligned: Italy’s Giorgia Meloni, Hungary’s Viktor Orbán, Israel’s Benjamin Netanyahu, and President Trump, to name a handful.
The speech had it all — an Ayn Rand reference, a condemnation of the Malthusian trap, an attack on “radical feminism,” and, of course, lots of blame for the LGBTQ+ community. “Wokeism is turning Western values upside down,” he said, and then called out the WEF organizers and attendees for being complicit in promulgating woke narratives. Good times. And yes, he ended by repeating his famous, “Long live freedom, dammit!”
3. Meet your new AI co-worker. In a panel conversation on the main stage of Congress Centre, Salesforce CEO Marc Benioff declared that his generation of leaders “will be the last to only manage humans.” He described an army of agents powered by artificial intelligence that will “augment” the human workforce and make their jobs more efficient.
Last year, as WEF began, the International Monetary Fund released a jarring report estimating that up to 40% of jobs globally would be impacted by or lost to AI. This time around, I’m hearing more tempered language. Like Benioff, many leaders are discussing “enhancement” as opposed to replacement, though they’re also stressing the need for skilling and training to prepare workers for their new digital desk mates.
And here’s what we’re watching Friday:
1. A war on science? It probably won’t make headlines, but a morning panel today on science may raise some of the most provocative questions I’ve heard this week. Could growing political polarization and national protectionism make it harder to be a scientist and to find the kind of cross-border collaboration that often leads to faster breakthroughs in research? It was an issue UNESCO’s Gabriela Ramos raised with me during our conversation at the Paris Peace Forum in November.
2. The global economic outlook. In the final hours of WEF, a powerhouse panel will assemble to dissect what these turbulent times mean for growth and stability in the coming months. European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde, IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva, BlackRock CEO Larry Fink, and other moola masters from around the world will talk tariffs, mounting public debt, and market movement in 2025.
3. "Uf Widerluege” from Davos. At noon local time, WEF President and CEO Børge Brende will deliver his closing remarks in the Congress Centre, bringing the 55th annual meeting to a close and sending participants out into the deep uncertainty of this geopolitical moment.
Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky speaks during the 55th annual meeting of the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, on Jan. 21, 2025.
Day Two: The view for AI from Davos
GZERO’s very own Tony Maciulis is in the Alps this week to report on the 55th World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland.
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It’s Day Two in Davos, and those of us here woke up to the flurry of executive orders from President Donald Trump, many of which were expected but still create complications for dialogues here focused on climate financing and cooperation on AI and tech policy, for example. Trump will address the forum directly via videoconference this Thursday afternoon (as we’ve been told, though there are small rumors he may come in person. I think those odds are slim, but …)
Today was a big day for keynote speeches and conversations with world leaders. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky, Germany’s embattled Chancellor Olaf Scholz, and China’s Vice Premier Ding Xuexiang addressed the forum, focusing on trade, innovation, multilateralism, and, in Zelensky’s case, the need to rally support for Ukraine.
Also, our own Ian Bremmer offered his take on the start of Trump’s presidency in a panel discussion in the Congress Centre today. Watch here.
At the forum’s AI House, discussions today focused on mitigating bias, accelerating global adoption of AI, and AI’s role in helping safeguard the environment.
Be sure to tune in tomorrow for a special Global Stage premiere from Davos, “The AI Economy: An Engine for Local Growth,” streaming at 11 a.m. ET. The program features Ian, Microsoft’s Vice Chair and President Brad Smith, WTO Director General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, European Investment Bank President Nadia Calviño, and G42’s CEO Peng Xiao. Details here.
Two hands, one human and one robotic, touching each other in front of a pink background.
Automation is coming. Are you ready?
In the next five years, 170 million new jobs will be created by macro trends including the rise of AI, but another 92 million will be displaced.
The report indicates that AI will fuel demand for a new cadre of workers, such as “big data specialists, fintech engineers and AI and machine learning specialists,” and demand for software developers will continue to rise. Cashiers, administrative assistants, and bank tellers will be among the displaced jobs.
Thankfully, newsletter writers and editors aren’t listed as easily replaceable — at least not yet.
Grown-up AI conversations are finally happening, says expert Azeem Azhar
“The thing that’s surprised me most is how well CEOs are [now] articulating generative AI, this technology that’s only been public for a year or so,” Azhar says,” “I’ve never experienced that in my life and didn’t realize how quickly they’ve moved.”
Azhar and Bremmer also discuss the underlying technology that’s allowed generative AI tools like ChatGPT-4 to advance so quickly and where conversations about applications of artificial intelligence go from here. Whereas a year ago, experts were focused on the macro implications of existential risk, Azhar is excited this year to hear people focus on practical things like copyright and regulation—the small yet impactful things that move the economy and change how we live our lives.
Catch Azeem Azhar's full conversation with Ian Bremmer in next week's episode of GZERO World on US public television. Check local listings.
Mark Carney sees more problems than solutions emerge from Davos
Davos is a good place to recognize problems but not such a good place to solve them, according to Lord Mark Malloch Brown, a British politician and diplomat who was in the Swiss Alps this month. “A new generation of modest, listening and empathetic leaders is needed – the antithesis of Davos Man,” he tweeted.
The World Economic Forum has steered so far to the north of public opinion that it is now being used as a punchline – the New York Times noted that “the Davos Consensus” is now a counter-indicator of what is likely to happen. “Trump is already the president at Davos — which is a good thing because the Davos consensus is usually wrong,” said Alex Soros, son of George and chair of the Open Society Foundation, on a panel at this year’s forum.
Yet, there is a reason why 3,000 of the world’s most powerful people make the mid-winter trek to Switzerland every year and line up in the cold to pass through security outside the Grandhotel Belvédere: It’s valuable to understand what the global elite is thinking and to recognize the many problems the world is facing.
GZERO Media caught up with Mark Carney, former governor of the Bank of England and Bank of Canada, who now serves as chair of Brookfield Asset Management and Bloomberg Inc. (as well as acting as a UN special envoy on climate change), to hear what he picked up in Davos.
Economic optimism
On the global economy, the general feeling was of a resilient US economy contrasting with a stagnant Europe, particularly as Germany goes through a historical industrial restructuring moving away from a model built on cheap gas from Russia and exports to China.
The general outlook for China was bearish, with the downside of its ongoing real estate adjustment outweighing the boost from China’s growing competitiveness in electric vehicles and clean energy and its efforts to rebuild exports at a time when supply chains are being “de-risked.”
Premier Li Qiang told Davos that China’s economy is open for business, but Reuters reported that investors who attended a closed-door lunch with him remained skeptical about China’s charm offensive.
This points to more stimulus, Carney said. Indeed, Bloomberg reported last week that the Chinese government is considering a rescue package for slumping stock markets (the CSI 300 was down 11.4% last year, its third year of negative growth, while Hong Kong’s Hang Sen was down 14% in 2023).
On monetary policy, Carney said the expectation among many attendees was that interest rates have peaked but that there was only limited appreciation that the pace of reductions may be slower than the market has been pricing. During Davos, market expectations were that the Fed would begin cutting in March and then cut again another four or five times this year. But Carney believes the Fed will probably wait until June to begin cutting, followed by another one or two cuts this year. “However, if that’s because the US economy is stronger than expected, it would be net positive,” he said.
Global crises
Geopolitics weighed heavily in the Swiss Alps. While US-China relations appear to have stabilized in the short term, the Middle East conflict was widening alarmingly. Reuters reported that there were no practical advances on a Palestinian state, or even a cease-fire, at Davos.
The head of the Palestinian Investment Fund estimated that $15 billion would be needed just to rebuild houses in Gaza. Arab states said they would not fund reconstruction until there was a lasting peace, by which they meant a Palestinian state.
Yemeni and Iranian officials told Davos audiences the attacks in the Red Sea would not stop until Israel ended the war in Gaza. The CEO of oil giant Saudi Aramco warned that the world might see a shortage of oil tankers if the attacks continue, forcing shippers to choose longer alternative routes.
Bankers warned that increased shipping costs and the possibility of an oil price rise could prove inflationary. And attendees took note of the comments of Saudi Arabia’s Prince Turki al Faisal that “the present leadership of Hamas, the PLO, and of Israel should be excluded from any participation in any future political role.”
Good AI vs. Bad AI
AI was everywhere, with businesses focused on how to implement it, first in basic administration and more profoundly in re-engineering the production, sales, and marketing. The core question of whether workers will benefit — and when — was more hotly debated. Some, including the IMF, saw widespread disruption to jobs (up to 40% according to the Fund). The techno-optimists pointed to the ability of AI to re-skill workers rapidly and past experiences with major technological changes that belied the ‘lump of labor fallacy.”
Carney felt that AI would begin to have major impacts on productivity and growth by the end of the decade and that, history teaches, it would take a comprehensive response of business, government, and academia to ensure that workers share in the benefits.
Climate change
Coming less than two months after what was regarded as a business-heavy, successful COP28 in Dubai and with AI dominating much of the discussion, the climate change debate was relatively muted. But Carney said it would be a mistake to consider that the transition has been relegated down the agenda.
He said that it is now so core to the fundamental business model of most companies that it has become embedded as a driver of competitiveness.
Carney noted that five years ago, $500 billion was invested in the transition; last year, that number was $1.8 trillion, nearly double what was invested in oil and gas. The challenge is that this number needs to more than double again to about $4 trillion by the end of the decade.
He said that the transitions toward clean energy and AI actually work in tandem since, while AI is relatively capital-light, it requires a lot of data and computing power, which in turn requires clean energy. And AI solutions will help with optimizing grids, heating and cooling systems, and even supply chains.
It was noticeable that the backlash against Environmental, Social, and Corporate Governance, or ESG, meant it was rarely mentioned in Davos. Attendees like Canadian Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland were more focused on the new buzzwords – “supply chain resilience” – trying to convince investors that Canada has the critical minerals and clean energy they need, as businesses try to diversify sources away from China.
Sustainability is now about “resiliency building” that contributes to profitability, not just altruism.
Milei’s message
Javier Milei, the new Argentinian president, burst onto the main stage at Davos like an arsonist with a blowtorch, lambasting the proponents of state intervention and concluding with the rallying cry: “Long live freedom, damn it.” He said the Western world is facing a significant threat because its leaders have been co-opted by a worldview that leads to socialism and economic deprivation.
“We are here to tell you that collectivist experiments are never solutions to the problems that affect citizens. Trust me, no one is better than Argentina to provide testimony on this,” Milei said.
At the time of Milei’s inauguration, annual inflation stood at 143%, the currency had plunged, and four out of 10 Argentines were living in poverty. He has promised radical reforms, including deregulation and devaluation of the currency, and there was no evidence that he was prepared to dilute his agenda in his speech.
He was scathing about “neo-Marxists” who have “co-opted the common sense of the Western world” when it comes to the climate change agenda and said he considered all talk of “market failure” to be an oxymoron.
Carney has considerable experience in navigating market failures, having been in the Cash Room meeting in the US Treasury as Bank of Canada governor during the financial crisis, alongside other G7 finance ministers and central bankers, when the decision was reached to backstop the banking system with liquidity to prevent a repeat of the Great Depression.
“All ideologies are prone to extremism, and capitalism loses its sense of moderation when the belief in the power of the market enters the realm of faith,” he wrote in his book, “Values.” “There are no libertarians in a financial crisis.”
But he said he found Milei’s speech to be entertainingly provocative. “It was good theatre and raised some important issues,” he said, particularly his praise for entrepreneurs and his assertion that state control does not depend solely on owning the means of production but can include regulation. Carney noted, however, that Milei appeared oblivious that he was speaking to some of the world’s most successful entrepreneurs (such as Bill Gates), few of whose actions echo the “Atlas Shrugged” school of poverty elimination.
Carney concluded that, “where you stand depends on where you sit,” and that Milei’s vehemence was undoubtedly influenced by a long history of high levels of state intervention and indebtedness in Argentina.
After his speech, Milei sat down with International Monetary Fund Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva to discuss Argentina’s debt problems. He remained defiant: “Free enterprise capitalism is the only tool we have to end hunger and poverty,” he said.
Milei will have to face down entrenched opposition from those who rely upon rents from the state apparatus if he is to rid his country of the unwanted tag of the “Argentina paradox,” the world’s most glaring example of a developed economy that went backward.
Graphic Truth: Who's who at Davos
For one week, heads of state, business titans, and thought leaders gather in the Swiss Alps and discuss the world’s most pressing problems. With all of that money, political power, and intelligence in the same room, Davos is, in theory, the perfect place to get big things done.
But that’s not always the case. This year's Davos didn’t surmount tangible progress on climate change, the war in the Middle East, or any of the countless political issues that were on the table to be discussed. Overall, global politics took a backseat at the World Economic Forum. Could this be because political leaders were vastly outnumbered by CEOs? To find out, we looked at who was in the room where it (didn’t) happen.
A man and woman walk in front of the World Economic Forum Convention Center in Davos, Switzerland.
Hard Numbers: Women attendees in Davos, Talks on peace in Ukraine, Taxing extreme wealth, Rebuilding homes in Gaza
80: The ongoing war in Ukraine, which is nearly two years old, was a big topic in Davos this year. National security advisors from over 80 countries gathered in the Alpine ski town before the summit officially kicked off to discuss Kyiv's 10-point peace plan. Moscow has clearly been paying attention and dismissed meetings on Ukraine's peace formula as "pointless."
250: Over 250 millionaires and billionaires, including Disney heir Abigail Disney, lent their signatures to an open letter addressed to political leaders gathered in Davos, calling on them to do more to tax extreme wealth. "Our request is simple: We ask you to tax us, the very richest in society," the letter said.
15,000,000,000: The cost of rebuilding houses in Gaza will be at least $15 billion, the head of the Palestine Investment Fund said in Davos, as the Israel-Hamas war wreaks havoc on infrastructure across the coastal enclave. Chairman Mohammed Mustafa said it's estimated that around 350,000 housing units in Gaza have been completely or partially destroyed so far.