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A graph comparing the US Federal Funds Effective Interest Rate with the year-on-year percentage change in inflation.

Luisa Vieira

The Graphic Truth: US interest rates vs. inflation

All eyes are on the US Federal Reserve, as it is set to announce Wednesday whether it’ll raise interest rates amid the recent banking turbulence.

The Fed’s decision will hinge on what central bankers think is a bigger priority: fighting inflation or stabilizing the financial sector following the recent collapses of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank.

While it could stay the course in its inflation fight with another rate hike, the Fed is coming under growing pressure to ease investors’ anxieties by leaving interest rates be. But doing that risks giving in — temporarily, at least — to lasting inflation. The longer the Fed waits to control rising prices, the worse chance it has to reach its 2-3% inflation target without triggering a recession.

Also, high-interest rates are partly to blame for the recent financial turmoil on both sides of the Atlantic. Right-leaning critics argue that near-zero rates for too long made lending too cheap. Meanwhile, some on the left say that raising rates too quickly made borrowing too expensive, hurting the balance sheets of banks like SVB.

What do you think the Fed’s next move should be? Let us know here.

Google's new chatbot, Bard.

Reuters

Hard Numbers: Meet Bard, grim new climate report, Colombia’s Toro ban, Uganda’s anti-LGBTQ law, IMF approves Sri Lankan relief

4: Bard has entered the conversation! Alphabet shares were up 4% at midday trading Tuesday after Google announced the release of Bard, its new AI technology. Google had previously been criticized for rushing to release the new chatbot tech to compete with Microsoft's OpenAI and its ChatGPT.
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Britain's Chancellor of the Exchequer Jeremy Hunt poses with the budget box at Downing Street in London, Britain March 15, 2023.

REUTERS/Hannah McKay

A new attitude and a new budget: Can the Tories make a comeback?

Weeks after the International Monetary Fund forecast that the UK will be the worst-performing advanced economy this year, British Chancellor Jeremy Hunt on Wednesday handed down a fresh national budget. (Though the independent Office for Budget Responsibility now says that the economy will only contract by 0.2% this year, an improvement on previous forecasts of 1.4%.)

Budgets can have a massive impact on politics. You’ll likely remember that ephemeral PM Liz Truss’ “mini” budget last fall caused the markets to nosedive, leading to her swift resignation.

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U.S. President Joe Biden delivers remarks after the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) and Signature Bank in Washington, D.C., March 13, 2023.

REUTERS/Evelyn Hockstein

SVB collapse: Don’t say the B-word

US President Joe Biden on Monday addressed the nation to assure Americans that, whatever the fallout from the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank, their deposits and the entire banking industry are both "safe."

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Luisa Vieira

The Graphic Truth: Food inflation still flying high

As the war in Ukraine lingers and pandemic aftershocks continue to pound the global economy, food inflation remains sky-high throughout much of the world. Consider that over the past year alone, egg prices in the US rose by a whopping 60% on average. While prices of some food staples have dropped in recent months, partly due to the Black Sea grain deal, stubborn inflation driving up transport and labor costs means that consumers aren’t feeling prices ease at the supermarket. We take a look at food inflation in select countries now compared to a year ago, exactly one month after Russia invaded Ukraine.

A man holds wheat grains during harvest in Qaha, El-Kalubia governorate, northeast of Cairo, Egypt.

REUTERS/Amr Abdallah Dalsh

What We’re Watching: Grain deal deadline, tech layoffs, interest rate ripples

Will the Black Sea grain deal be renewed?

Amid growing concern that Russia may refuse to renew a deal to allow food and fertilizer shipments to travel through a safe passage in the Black Sea, UN Secretary-General António Guterres this week visited Kyiv, where he called for the renewal of the agreement, which is set to lapse on March 18. Quick recap: The grain deal, negotiated by Turkey, the UN, Russia, and Ukraine, was implemented in the summer of 2022 in a bid to free up 20 million tons of grain stuck at Ukrainian ports due to Russia’s blockade. You’ll likely remember that the two states are both huge exporters of wheat, while Russia is also the global fertilizer king. Indeed, the deal has helped alleviate a global food crisis that was hitting import-reliant Africa particularly hard, and driving up global food prices. Kyiv, for its part, says that if the deal is expanded to additional ports it could export at least some of the 30 million tons of grain that remain stuck. The Kremlin hasn’t said what its plans are but this week accused the West of “shamelessly burying" the Black Sea deal in what could be used as a pretext for its refusal to play ball.

For more on what Guterres has to say about the ongoing war in Ukraine and its human toll, check out his interview with Ian Bremmer on GZERO World.

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Episode 1: Should I ​STILL be worried?

Transcript

Listen: The equivalent of what we spent in World War II was spent in the course of a year and a half to support the US economy, and that had global impacts. All of that was rolled out with incredible speed and effectiveness, [but] the hangover effects from that are very, very significant,” said David Bailin, Chief Investment Officer and Global Head of Investments at Citi Global Wealth. Years into a global pandemic and one year into an unexpected war in Ukraine, the stability of the world's economy - and political balance - remains in question.

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Protestors gather outside the U.S. Supreme Court ahead of the oral arguments in two cases that challenge President Joe Biden's $400 billion student loan forgiveness plan.

Megan Smith-USA TODAY via Reuters Connect

What We’re Watching: SCOTUS mulling student debt relief, Blinken visiting Central Asia, Biden's partial TikTok ban, Petro’s post-honeymoon phase

US Supreme Court weighs student loan forgiveness

The US Supreme Court began hearing arguments on Tuesday in a pair of cases that will test the limitations of presidential power and could derail Joe Biden’s plan to forgive $400 billion in student debt. Biden campaigned on debt relief, promising to help families burdened by the pandemic-fueled economic crisis. But now the court will decide whether Biden has the authority to forgive student loans. The White House cites a 2003 law aimed at alleviating hardship suffered by federal student loan recipients following a national emergency, but opponents say debt relief should require congressional approval. Biden hopes to fulfill his campaign promise ahead of next year’s presidential race, and millions of millennials and Gen-Z scholars – many of whom could see up to $20,000 of their federal student loan debt wiped away – will be waiting with bated breath. A decision will drop before the court adjourns in June, but so far, justices in the conservative majority seem critical of Biden’s move.

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