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Japan's new Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi (C, first row) poses during a photo session with members of her cabinet at the prime minister's office in Tokyo, Japan October 21, 2025.
Hard Numbers: Japan elects first female prime minister, Former French president goes to jail, The Netherlands to start deporting migrants to Uganda, US army courts private equity
1: As anticipated, Japan’s Parliament elected Liberal Democratic Party leader Sanae Takichi to be the 104th prime minister – and the first female PM in the country’s history. The 64-year-old is an arch conservative, and has long admired the late UK Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher. Her main priority going forward: putting a lid on rising prices. The Japanese yen fell, though, over concerns about Takichi’s potential approach to monetary policy and spending.
5: Former French President Nicolas Sarkozy began his five-year jail sentence in Paris today for soliciting funds from fallen Libyan dictator Moammar Gadhafi during his 2007 campaign. The 70-year-old, who becomes the first former leader of a European Union state to go to jail, still maintains his innocence.
4,200: The Netherlands – which ordered 19,000 asylum seekers to leave the country last year, but only returned 4,200 – plans to deport rejected asylum seekers to a “transit hub” in Uganda starting next year, under a deal modeled on the US arrangement with Kampala. The move faces legal and human rights concerns, though Dutch officials insist it complies with international law.
$150 billion: The US Army is courting major private equity firms—including Apollo, Carlyle, KKR, and Cerberus—to help fund a $150 billion infrastructure overhaul. As the FT reported exclusively, Army Secretary Daniel Driscoll is seeking proposals on ambitious projects like data centers or rare earth facilities, offering financing as part of a broader Trump administration push to integrate private capital into national security.
Shinjiro Koizumi, Sanae Takaichi, Yoshimasa Hayashi, Ichiro Aizawa, Toshimitsu Motegi and Takayuki Kobayashi at a campaign event of the Liberal Democratic Party candidates in Tokyo, Japan, on Sept. 24, 2025.
Japan’s leadership race: gender milestone or generational reset?
Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) is holding a leadership race to replace outgoing Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, who resigned in September after defeats in the Upper House and Tokyo’s municipal elections this summer. The party has held power for most of the last 70 years, and this mid-term intra-party election is unprecedented. But it comes as public anger over political finance scandals and inflation (rice prices doubled in one year), as well as anxiety over immigration, have made the case for a reset. The race’s slogan is “Change, LDP,” and on October 4, the LDP could deliver, electing either the country’s first female prime minister or a millennial reformer promising a generational shakeup.
Who’s running?
There are five main candidates but polls show the leading contenders to be former Economic Security Minister Sanae Takaichi, 64, an arch-conservative career politician first elected in 1993 who finished second to Ishiba in last year’s LDP leadership, and the telegenic moderate Shinjiro Koizumi, a 44-year old Agriculture minister. Koizumi has scrambled to lower rice prices and is the son of the charismatic former Prime Minister Junchiro Koizumi, (who, as some of our readers may remember, famously serenaded then-US President George W. Bush with Elvis karaoke in the early 2000s.)
Where Takaichi and Koizumi would take Japan
Takaichi may be a woman, but she’s no feminist, endorsing male primogeniture in Japan’s royal house and styling herself after late UK Prime Minister Dame Margaret Thatcher. She is a foreign policy hawk in the vein of late Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, in whose Cabinet she served in the mid 2000s. Takaichi would revise Japan's pacifist Constitution to formally codify the existence of its Self-Defense Forces and take a tougher line on China. On economics, she also echoes Abe, proposing to issue more bonds to fund a combination of tax cuts and cash payments to households to offset cost-of-living increases, and eliminate gas taxes.
Her “Japan First” policies include reviewing the US-Japan trade deal, cracking down on badly-behaving tourists, and curbing immigration. Lately, however, she has moderated some of her harder-line positions in order to woo centrist voters, promising a gender balance comparable to that of the Nordic countries, where approximately 40% of cabinet members are women, and to ensure “peaceful” coexistence with foreigners.
Koizumi, meanwhile, pledges party reform and practical cost-of-living fixes but wouldn’t take on new debt. He wants to grow productivity and wages to combat inflation, and would also slash gas taxes. He’s taken progressive positions on cultural issues, supporting a women’s right to inherit the imperial throne and agreeing that married couples can use separate surnames. But lately, he has de-emphasized those stances to court more conservative lawmakers. He’s also talking tougher on migration, acknowledging public concern over an increase in foreign residents.
The challenge from the right
Adding to the intrigue, the LDP leadership race comes in the wake of the far-right’s surging popularity in Japan’s national elections last July, when the ultra-nationalist Sanseito party captured 14 seats in the Upper House, after previously holding just one. Sanseito’s traditionalist views on family and fierce opposition to foreigners have carved away the LDP’s right flank and garnered support among young Japanese. The LDP wants to regain both of those groups.
And now, a scandal
This past weekend, Koizumi’s campaign was hit by scandal. He apologized after a campaign worker – who then resigned – solicited supporters to post favorable comments about him while slamming Takaichi – a no-no according to conservative party rules. The scandal has now caused a key LDP coalition partner to call on Koizumi to withdraw from the race. At press time, there has been no response from Koizumi’s camp.
Lawmakers will have more sway than rank-and-file party members
While the public favors Koizumi, party members lean toward Takaichi. And the LDP voting system could work in her favor.
Half of the 590 votes for leader in the first round will be cast by the party’s 295 elected representatives. The other 295 will be allocated proportionally based on the votes of 1 million LDP members – which benefits Koizumi.
But if no candidate clears 50% (which polls say is likely), the top two contenders advance to a runoff where the 295 members of Japan’s parliament still each have one vote, but rank-and-file members only collectively have 47, one from each of the LDP’s prefectural chapters, for a total of 342. That gives lawmakers a greater say and favors establishment candidate Takaichi.
After the vote
Whoever wins will face the same challenges: crafting a coalition to stay in power and maintaining relationships with Japan’s allies. Sanseito says it is open to a coalition deal, but that would alienate more moderate parties. The strongest candidate to join the coalition, according to Eurasia Group’s Director for Japan and Asian Trade, David Boling, is the Japan Innovation Party, which – until the Koizumi scandal – had been holding talks with both camps.
Japan’s relationships with the United States and China pose another challenge. According to Boling, “The US is Japan’s most important ally – no other country is even close. So, at the top of the new prime minister’s to-do list is to have a good relationship with US President Donald Trump and his administration.”
As for China, Japan wants a stable economic relationship, because it is Japan’s top trading partner. But on national security issues, China is also Japan’s top security challenge, making for a tricky balancing act.
Then there’s South Korea. Boling believes that Seoul wouldn’t be pleased with a Takaichi victory, as “her nationalism is a turnoff.”
Will both leading candidates remain in the race? Will the LDP veer right, moderate or progressive? We’ll see just how Japan’s political axis tilts when the vote comes in this week.Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba adjusts his glasses during a press conference as he announces his resignation, in Tokyo, Japan, on September 7, 2025.
Who will be Japan’s next leader?
Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba’s resignation announcement on Sunday triggered the country’s second leadership battle in less than a year, plunging his center-right Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) deeper into a political crisis.
The party has held power for most of the last 70 years, but recently lost majorities in both houses of the National Diet and suffered a historic defeat in Tokyo’s city council elections. This string of defeats, combined with a stagnant economy and higher inflation, spelt the end for Ishiba.
The LDP must now select a new party leader, who is likely to replace Ishiba as prime minister. That process is likely to unfold in October, though it could come sooner given the urgency of the situation.
To better understand how the leader of Japan, the world’s fourth largest economy, got into this mess after less than a year in power, and who is most likely to replace him, GZERO spoke to one of the top experts on Japanese politics: Eurasia Group’s Japan Director David Boling.
GZERO: Why did Ishiba resign?
Boling: “Three strikes, you’re out,” is probably the most compelling argument against Ishiba. He basically was the leader of the party, and they had three elections where they lost. After that upper house election in July, there was a pretty hard push by a lot of conservatives to call for a special election. Ishiba has a three-year term that started last September, when he was elected. It is unprecedented for the LDP to call for basically a midterm intraparty election. Ishiba was able to stall that for a while, but the momentum started to come back strong.
Last week, they had set up a vote on Monday for whether to have a leadership election, and Ishiba saw the writing on the wall over the weekend. Instead of seeing how this special election would turn out, he could tell that he didn’t have the votes.
Who are the favorites to replace him, and what are their stances?
The two favorites to replace him are well known – they came in right behind Ishiba in the party leadership vote last September.
The person who finished second behind Ishiba was Sanae Takaichi. She is conservative, nationalistic, and a proponent of “Abenomics,” which is loose monetary and fiscal policy. But she’s probably best known for her nationalistic views. She’s a hawk. [She would also be Japan’s first female prime minister.] The person who placed third is Shinjiro Koizumi, a well known name in Japan because his father was prime minister. He’s young, charismatic, and popular. Since they are both members of the LDP, both candidates are broadly pro-US alliance, and right of center. I would put Koizumi as more moderate, and Takaichi as more conservative.
Last thing: what’s the biggest thing to watch out for going forward, once the new leader is determined?
Last October, the LDP and its junior coalition partner Komeito lost their lower house majority, so they now have to work with one of the opposition parties to have enough votes to elect the new LDP leader as prime minister again. I think that it is very likely that whoever is the LDP president will become the next Japanese prime minister, but there will have to be some sort of deal worked out with the opposition parties to have enough votes to approve that person as the next prime minister. The LDP-Komeito coalition may have to make concessions on items for the annual budget, agreeing to spending or taxing provisions favored by the opposition. So that will be the next big watch point.
Graphic Truth: Japan’s ruling coalition loses majority
Japan’s ruling coalition lost control of the upper house in Sunday’s election, further weakening Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba amid growing domestic pressure and international challenges. To retain its majority, the Liberal Democratic Party and its partner Komeito needed to win 50 seats – they got only 47. This follows the LDP’s worst electoral showing in 15 years in last fall’s Lower House election. Rising inflation and opposition calls for tax cuts resonated with voters, while the far-right Sanseito party gained ground with a nationalist, anti-immigration platform. Despite the setback, Ishiba vowed to stay on, stressing the importance of upcoming US trade talks as Japan faces an August tariff deadline. For a refresher on why Shigeru was in such trouble to begin with, see here.
Japanese Prime Minister and the ruling Liberal Democratic Party leader Shigeru Ishiba is surrounded by security policemen as he meets with his supporters after he delivered a campaign speech for his party's candidate Masaaki Waki for the Upper House election in Yokohama, suburban Tokyo, Japan, on July 18, 2025.
Could a hard-right party swing Japan’s election?
Over the past decade, the world’s leading industrial democracies have become intensely polarized, particularly with the rise of anti-immigration populism in Europe and the United States. Japan, where the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) has led governments for all but four of the past 70 years, has defied that trend. But with elections looming this weekend, opinion polls say that may be changing fast.
On Sunday, Japan faces elections for the Upper House of the National Diet, the country’s legislature (click here for a good primer on how Upper House elections work). Last fall, the LDP-led coalition government lost its majority in the Lower House, and it badly needs an electoral rebound to avoid a period of uncertainty the country hasn’t seen in decades.
That rebound isn’t looking likely. A poll from broadcaster NHK found that Prime Minister Ishiba Shiberu’s approval rating fell from 39% in June to just 31% this week. His party is faring even worse. Support for the LDP dropped from 31.6% in June to a startling 24% now. Recent surveys from the Yomiuri Shimbun and Nikkei flash similar warning signs.
If the current governing coalition of the LDP and junior partner Komeito loses its Upper House majority, Ishiba’s future as PM will immediately come into question as we see the possible opening of negotiations with opposition parties on joining the government. There’s even a small chance that enough of Japan’s long-fragmented opposition could join forces to form an opposition-led coalition government.
Where is the LDP's public support going? Even in Japan, xenophobic populism is having a political moment as the need for migrant labor in a country with an aging population trumps a longtime public preference for cultural homogeneity and the immigration restrictions that protect it.
Sanseito, a rising party of the right, is an explicitly “Japan First,” anti-globalist, anti-immigrant upstart that’s now capturing enough attention in tough economic times that it could win 10 or more seats on Sunday – the hard-right party currently only has two seats in the Upper House. Given that Sanseito looks to be drawing most of its support from voters who’ve historically backed the LDP, it might also cost the long-dominant party its majority in a close election.
Sanseito is likely benefitting from Japan’s current economic hardship – rising prices, especially for imported food and energy, and falling real wages, in particular – fueled in part by a historically weak yen. Even at a time of dollar weakness, the Japanese currency fell to 149 yen against the dollar earlier this week. All this comes at a time when US President Donald Trump is driving a hard bargain with Japan’s beleaguered government on trade terms.
In short, Japan is not a country prone to political turmoil, but the results this weekend could change that very quickly.
Members of the Lawyers from Across Japan for the Victims of the Unification Church（LAJAVUC）attend a press conference as the Tokyo District Court issued a dissolution order to the Unification Church, the religious group formerly called the Family Federation for World Peace and Unification, in Tokyo on March 25, 2025.
Japan bans Moonies
On Tuesday, a Tokyo court revoked the legal status of the Unification Church in Japan, ordering the sect known as the Moonies to disband following a government problem spurred by the assassination of former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe in 2022.
Founded in 1954 in Seoul, South Korea, by Sun Myung Moon, a preacher who cast himself as a messiah, the church raised an estimated 70% of its income in Japan, where its followers heavily pressured Japanese to give donations known as tithings to make up for the brutality of the country’s imperial era.
Widely derided as a cult, the Moonies claimed less than 100,000 followers in Japan in recent years – less than .1% of the country’s population, but pseudo and new-wave religious groups are popular in Japan, with an estimated 180,000 of them, or one for every 700 people. The Unification Church enjoyed outsize influence in the ruling Liberal Democratic Party that has governed Japan for most of the post-war era. Moon was a close friend of Abe’s grandfather, former Prime Minister Nobusuke Kishi, who saw the sect as an ally against communism. The Moonies retained political influence by fundraising and promoting hundreds of candidates from the LDP.
In 2022, Tetsuya Yamagami admitted to killing Abe in an act of purported retribution after his mother, who was involved with the Moonies, donated over $1 million to the church. The confessed assassin accused Abe for allowing the church, which he blamed for leaving his family bankrupt, to prosper in Japan.
The church said Tuesday’s dissolution order was “absolutely unacceptable” and a threat to religious freedom. It is considering an immediate appeal, but David Boling, Japan director at Eurasia Group doesn't believe that will amount to much. “No one is interested in defending the church," he says. "The attitude of the Japanese public is ‘good riddance.’”
Japanese Prime Minister and leader of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) Shigeru Ishiba bows to LDP lawmakers onstage after a press conference, a day after Japan's lower house election, at the party's headquarters in Tokyo, Japan October 28, 2024.
It’s horse-trading season in Japan after shock election
Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba is promising deep internal reforms to the Liberal Democratic Party after voters delivered what he called a “severe judgment” in Sunday’s elections, costing him the majority in the lower house of Parliament. The LDP has ruled since 1955 with only brief interruptions, but it lost 56 seats as voters expressed frustration with a funding scandal that has tarnished the party’s image with corruption and entitlement.
An unforced error? The PM only came to power on Oct. 1 in an internal party vote after his predecessor, Fumio Kishida, stepped down. Ishiba could have waited up to a year to call an election but wanted to win a mandate from voters quickly. A little patience might have paid off – and given him time to move away from the scandal and work on Japan’s sluggish economy.
What’s next? Ishiba has 30 days to form a coalition, and he will need to include an extra partner beyond traditional allies from the Komeito party. The most likely contender is the Democratic Party for the People, a fellow center-right party that saw its seat count rise from 7 to 28, but its leader is playing hardball. Yuichiro Tamaki says he would prefer to work with the LDP on an issue-by-issue basis — which would mean catering to his needs on every vote.
Will the US-Japan alliance suffer? Not likely. The alliance is a point of broad consensus in Tokyo, but plans to amp up Japanese defense may need to take a backseat.October 23, 2024, Kamagaya, Japan - Japanese Prime Minister and leader of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) Shigeru Ishiba reacts to his supporters after he delivered a campaign speech for his party candidate Hisashi Matsumoto for the general election at Kamagaya in Chiba prefecture, suburban Tokyo on Wednesday, October 23, 2024.
Will Japan’s LDP lose its grip on power?
As Japan heads to the polls this Sunday, Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba’s decision to call an early election just weeks after taking office is turning out to be a high-stakes gamble. Polls predict that the ruling Liberal Democratic Party could lose seats, or even the majority, after ruling the country for all but four of the past 65 years.
“The opposition parties are hammering the LDP over the political fundraising scandal,” says Eurasia Group’s Japan Director David Boling, referring to the discovery of undisclosed political funds and kickbacks within the LDP, news that has rattled public trust at a time when inflation is biting and living costs are soaring.
Earlier polls showed that the LDP and its coalition partner Komeito would maintain their majority, but a weekend poll indicating they could lose 50 of their 247 seats has left Ishiba on shaky ground.
If the LDP loses its majority, it could be forced to make concessions on monetary policy. The Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan, LDP’s biggest opposition, proposes modifying the Bank of Japan’s inflation target from 2% to one “exceeding zero,” which would leave room for rate hikes even if inflation dips.
Beyond having to abandon its economic agenda, Boling warns that “if the LDP-Komeito coalition loses its majority, the prime minister’s deathwatch may begin for Ishiba.”