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Japan's Prime Minister Fumio Kishida speaks at a news conference during the 77th UN General Assembly in New York.
Will Japan's PM avoid the "danger zone" after Abe funeral?
Japan held a controversial state funeral Tuesday for former PM Shinzo Abe, who was assassinated in early July. Now that the ceremony is over, one attendee who'll feel some relief is Fumio Kishida, the embattled current prime minister.
How did we get here? Since seeing his popularity soar to a record high after responding to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine with unusual toughness, three months ago Kishida’s approval rating started to slip. It was mainly over the economy — with many Japanese people starting to panic over inflation after 20 years of deflation.
Abe’s assassination swept the ruling Liberal Democratic Party to a decisive victory in the upper house election three days later, but soon after that, the blowback from his tragic death made the Japanese public sour on the PM. First, Abe's assassin blamed his family's financial ruin on the Unification Church, a cult-like religious movement born in South Korea whose members are known as Moonies (after founder Sun Myung Moon).
The revelation sparked a public outcry against the Moonies, which have long been cozy with the LDP — including Abe himself. Kishida, who has no ties to the church, responded to the backlash by firing his cabinet ministers with Moonie baggage, but the scandal just won't go away.
At the same time, Kishida waded into an unforeseen culture war by authorizing a state funeral for Abe. That struck a sour note for the majority of Japanese voters who oppose the taxpayer-funded $11.5 million ceremony because it’s an honor traditionally reserved for members of the Imperial Family.
Until Abe, only Shigeru Yoshida, Japan’s first postwar PM, had received a funeral with all the state bells and whistles. While Abe fans might argue that he deserves the same treatment as the country’s longest-serving PM, David Boling, Eurasia Group’s lead Japan analyst, says the backlash shows that Abe’s hawkish politics were always divisive. (To get an idea of how much, days ago an elderly man set himself on fire in central Tokyo to protest the funeral.)
Also, the economy has gone from bad to worse. Last week, the Bank of Japan intervened for the first time since 1998 to prop up the yen after the currency hit a new low, having lost one-fifth of its value against the dollar in 2022. Japan is not the only country grappling with high inflation and a weak currency, but it has stubbornly refused to raise interest rates in response.
Annual core inflation reached 2.8% in August, which may not sound like much yet is historically very high for Japan. Boling says that rising prices — which the government can do little about — and the central bank dragging its feet on rate hikes make Kishida look ineffective.
Is the PM in real danger of losing his job? Not yet, but for Boling he's close to the "danger zone" with an average approval rating of about 37%. If Kishida’s numbers go down even more a month from now, "that becomes a bigger concern, and he really hits the panic button."
Still, Kishida has two things going for him.
First, the PM doesn't have an election on the horizon. That’s what doomed his predecessor, Yoshihide Suga, who stepped down with a similar approval rating a year ago. Kishida then won the LDP leadership race and captained the party to a comfortable majority in the October 2021 lower house election.
Second, Boling says that the opposition remains disorganized and fragmented. Meanwhile, the LDP's so-called Abe faction, the main ruling party bloc that might seek to challenge Kishida in the near term, is leaderless.
Kishida also has a personal reason to stay. Next year, Japan takes over the presidency of the G7, which will hold its 2023 summit in Hiroshima, the PM’s electoral district. Kishida wants to use the symbolism of the location to make a big splash about nuclear weapons non-proliferation.
Finally, Boling says Kishida’s low numbers don’t necessarily reflect his personal popularity among the Japanese public. He is perceived as someone who listens more and is less in-your-face than Abe or Suga — the flip side is that he's also seen as rather bland and indecisive on policy.
The upshot: Since 2000, only two of Japan’s prime ministers have served more than 15 months in office: the larger-than-life Abe and the flamboyant Junichiro Koizumi, famous for serenading then-US President George W. Bush with Elvis songs. The more low-key Kishida hardly has their charisma, yet could follow in their footsteps if he weathers the current storm.
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Japan's assertive foreign and economic policy reflect Abe's legacy
Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week on World In :60.
With Japanese people mourning former PM Shinzo Abe, how will his death further influence Japan's politics?
Well, we've already seen a fairly easy majority win by Abe's own Liberal Democratic Party. He had been stumping for them when he was assassinated. His two legacies are things that the Japanese are moving on. One, Abenomics, the three arrows of fiscal policy and monetary policy and growth really underpin the new style of capitalism that Prime Minister Kishida's been talking about. I think that they will more assertively align towards those, even though the BOJ at this point, The Bank of Japan doesn't have a lot of flexibility given the indebtedness levels. But also the Quad, the CPTPP, the desire of the Japanese, the prime minister to go to NATO for the summit a couple weeks ago. I mean, all of these were really kicked off by Abe wanting a more assertive foreign policy, normalizing their defense capabilities. You might even see a move now towards reforming the constitution on the defense side, something Abe wanted to do but didn't have the votes for. Now the LDP does. I expect to see Japan increasingly assertive on the global stage like you've seen Germany under Olaf Scholz.
Does recent polling indicate both Democrats and Republicans will ditch Biden and Trump in 2024?
No, but it definitely indicates that both of those men, in their late seventies today, will have significant primary challenges. It's too early to talk about DeSantis from Florida is sort of out in front and challenging Trump. At this point in the 2016 race, everyone was talking about Chris Christie is out in front. Things change, and they change a lot as people get to know other political contenders. But I think the lack of popularity of Biden in the Democratic Party and the desire to move on from Trump in the Republican Party... In the case of Biden, the difficulties in the economy and his age. In the case of Trump, the way that January 6th committee has played out, I think does create space and means that both of these primaries are going to be competitive. Frankly, I think in both cases, that would be good for democracy in the United States. But if you made me bet at this point, I'd still say incumbent for Biden and Trump getting another run at it is still the way you would bet against anybody else simply because it's too early to say and they're by far the most well known.
The euro and the dollar are equal. Is it time for Americans to visit Europe?
Has to be, right? I mean, sort of a dollar parody. Everything in Europe is looking pretty cheap. I mean, it sounds like a great time for a vacation in Italy and sort of go and buy some fashion. Why not, and help the European economies, except for the fact of course, that there is a war going on in Ukraine and there are big energy challenges. So I'm not sure that Germany in the winter sounds so great right now, but for Americans that are looking to get the hell out for a week or two, Europe is cheaper now than it's been at any point in 20 years. One thing I would say, though is don't go to the UK. Heathrow is an utter disaster, and they're telling them not to take any more flight reservations because they can't handle all the inbound.
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Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga speaks during a news conference announcing to extend a state of emergency on COVID-19 pandemic at prime minister's official residence in Tokyo, Japan, August 17, 2021.
What We’re Watching: Japan's ruling party leadership battle
At least three members of Japan's ruling Liberal Democratic Party — which has governed the country almost continuously since 1955 — will face off against embattled Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga in a leadership vote scheduled for September 29. Since taking office a year ago after the health-related retirement of his old boss Shinzo Abe, Suga's approval rating has plunged due to his haphazard pandemic response, a series of LDP political scandals, and his unpopular decision to host the Tokyo Olympics amid COVID. Now, the PM will face tough challenges from Fumio Kishida, a party heavyweight who lost the LDP presidency to Suga last year; former LDP policy chief Hakuban Shimomura; and Sanae Takaichi, a hawkish former interior minister who wants to become the first woman PM of Japan, a country that has a dismal record of women's participation in politics. Suga has one thing going for him, though: he reportedly still has the support of Abe, who carries enormous sway within the party.