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The complicated US-Japan relationship
The US-Japan alliance is complex. But among other priorities, to rein in China, both countries need each other.
If you know anything about Rahm Emanuel, it's that speaking diplomatically may not be his forte. And yet, his current post demands it. The former White House chief of staff (called, in his day, a "pitbull") and the polarizing mayor of Chicago now serves as the US ambassador to Japan, one of the US' closest allies. Ian Bremmer was in Tokyo for an exclusive interview with Emanuel. And though the ambassador did his best to remain "diplomatic," there were flashes of the "pitbull" as well.
In a wide-ranging interview, the Ambassador discusses Japan's critical role as a key US ally in the Asia-Pacific and a bulwark against an ever-expanding China. Emanuel also discusses a recent trilateral meeting between the US, Japan, and South Korea at the Camp David presidential compound and the significance of these alliances in countering aggression and promoting diplomacy. Perhaps he is most wary of drifting out of his lane when commenting on wars in the Middle East and Europe. But he does touch on the polarization of the Israel-Palestine issue and the need for a moral grounding in addressing the conflict.
Watch GZERO World with Ian Bremmer every week on US public television (check local listings) and at gzeromedia.com/gzeroworld.
Podcast: Unpacking the complicated US-Japan relationship with Ambassador Rahm Emanuel
Ian Bremmer is in Tokyo, Japan, to check in on America’s “pivot to Asia.” How’s that going? Given that neither Ukraine nor Israel is located in the Asia Pacific, it is not so great!
In 2011, then-President Obama announced on a trip to Australia that US foreign policy would be shifting its focus away from costly wars in the Middle East and towards strengthening partnerships in the Asia-Pacific to curb a rising China. Twelve years later, we’re still pivoting. But if we ever do get there, we will have to take Japan, one of our closest regional allies, along with us. To talk about US-Japan relations, as well as a whole host of sticky policy issues, foreign and domestic, Ian is joined by US Ambassador to Japan Rahm Emanuel. Ian will also get his take on the Israel-Hamas war and the fighting in Ukraine.
Ian Explains: How is America's "Pivot to Asia" playing out?
Why can't the US seem to focus on the Asia-Pacific region instead of the Middle East?
In November 2011, President Barack Obama laid out his vision for America’s expanded role in the Asia-Pacific region, which soon became known as the "pivot to Asia.” American foreign policy, Obama announced, would be shifting its focus away from costly wars in the Middle East and towards strengthening partnerships in the Asia-Pacific to curb a rising China. In short, America’s 21st-century foreign policy would be pointed firmly to the East.
Fast-forward to 2023, and America’s “Pivot to Asia” is a little more complicated. The Israel-Hamas conflict, which could quite easily spiral into a larger regional war with the US and Iran, is only the latest example. And though not in the Middle East, the war in Ukraine remains one of the biggest and most expensive US foreign policy priorities. This is not, in short, the 21st-century foreign policy vision that President Obama had in mind.
And yet, if you talk to any American national security official, they’ll tell you that China’s rise remains Washington’s main national security challenge – after all, America’s biggest global rival is also one of its largest trade partners. That’s just one of the many reasons that President Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping met at the sidelines of the Asia Pacific Economic Forum in San Francisco last month.
If the US is ever going to fully “pivot to Asia,” they must bring Japan along for the ride.
So, will 2024 be the year that the United States government makes good on decade-old pivot-to-Asia promise?
Watch the upcoming episode of GZERO World with Ian Bremmer on US public television (check local listings) and at gzeromedia.com/gzeroworld.
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Former U.S. President Donald Trump at a rally in Conroe, Texas.
What We're Watching: Trump's tax returns set to go public, Japan stuns markets, Biden braces for migrant surge, India raises China alarm
Trump's tax returns set to be released
The House Ways and Means Committee voted yesterday to release Donald Trump's tax returns from 2015-2020 — a move the former president’s team has characterized as a politically motivated attack by Democrats in the House, who are set to lose their majority when the new Congress is sworn in on Jan. 3. It may be days before all the filings go public, but committee members revealed late Tuesday that the IRS failed to audit Trump during his first two years as president. A report issued late Tuesday also highlighted some information from the filings, including that Trump had positive taxable income in 2018 — for the first time in more than 10 years — and paid nearly $1 million in federal income taxes that year. But as of 2020? Trump had reverted to reporting negative income … and paid no federal income tax as a result. Democrats on the committee explained that they carefully followed the law with this vote, invoking a century-old statute, but some Republicans say this could lead to increased use of exposing private tax info for political means.
Japan's stealth monetary policy move
The Bank of Japan made heads turn and shocked markets Tuesday when it abruptly announced it would tweak its controversial yield curve control policy. (For all you non-economic nerds out there, this is meant to boost economic growth and fight deflation by keeping the yield of 10-year debt bonds near 0%.) But the policy has arguably been doing more harm than good since Sept. 2021, when inflation started to make a comeback after a decade. Both have helped kill the yen in 2022. What's more, Japan sticks out like a sore thumb among major economies because it has stubbornly resisted calls to raise interest rates to tame inflation. BOJ Gov. Haruhiko Kuroda insists that his bond-yield "pivot" doesn't mean Japan will soon ditch its ultra-loose monetary policy to catch up with the rest of the world. Yet it certainly looks like the central bank is moving in that direction — without saying it out loud. "A stronger yen is good politically for [PM Fumio] Kishida and will help lower the cost of energy imports," says Eurasia Group analyst David Boling. "But higher interest rates may hurt lots of zombie firms in Japan that have gotten used to zero interest rates."
Biden throws in the towel on Title 42
There's a big US immigration crisis in the works — and the Biden administration seems to think it can no longer stop it. On Tuesday, the government agreed to halt its legal challenges to the expiration of Title 42, a Trump-era rule that allows US authorities to expel asylum-seekers on public health grounds that's set to expire on Dec. 21. But the White House also asked the Supreme Court, which on Monday issued a temporary stay on the order, to keep it in place until at least after Christmas. The situation is tricky for President Joe Biden, who publicly says he wants to scrap Title 42 — mainly to appease the pro-immigration left wing of his party — but privately fears a surge of migrants at the southern border once the rule is lifted that Republicans will use to slam his administration. That'll never happen if tough-on-border-security Republican governors of southern states get their way with SCOTUS, so things might get ugly if the court sides with Biden. Red states are threatening to send more migrants to blue states, some of which have already declared states of emergency to deal with the influx of asylum-seekers. What happens next? SCOTUS might accept Biden's final extension before scrapping Title 42 or hold off for weeks, even months, to consider Republican challenges. Meanwhile, thousands of migrants across the border in Mexico will remain stuck in a legal limbo.
India talks tough on China
India’s foreign minister has warned that it has scaled up its military presence along the country’s border with China to an unprecedented level. The move doesn’t come as a surprise. As Signalista Waj Khan noted in our Monday edition, India remains ill-equipped to handle the latest round of clashes between Indian and Chinese troops at points along their disputed border. Compounding the problem for India, the front has shifted east in a sign that the conflict is expanding, none of India’s foreign policy moves to punish China seem to have restrained the provocative behavior of Chinese troops, and the perception has grown that India’s government hasn’t done enough to show strength at the border. What’s new is that this month’s resurgence of border violence has given domestic critics of Narendra Modi’s government a chance to call Modi weak on China. In particular, Rahul Gandhi, leader of India's main opposition Congress Party, has warned that Chinese soldiers are preparing for war and "thrashing" Indian soldiers at the border while the Indian government does nothing. We’re watching to see if political pressures inside India push Modi’s government toward an escalation that will trigger more violence.
Reflecting on Shinzo Abe and how his legacy will impact Japan's future
Japan was rattled by the shocking assassination of former Prime Minister Shinzo. Ian Bremmer speaks to longtime Abe adviser Tomohiko Taniguchi about Abe's foreign policy legacy.
In a GZERO World interview, they discuss whether current PM Fumio Kishida can pick up where his old boss left off, and how Abe's untimely death might ultimately change Japan. Is the time right to now realize Abe's unfulfilled dream of amending Japan's postwar pacifist constitution?
Taniguchi also shares how he felt when he found out his close friend had died. "I was filled with a lot of but different emotions all at the same time," he tells Ian. "Disbelief, grief, [but] the strongest emotion, of course, was anger.
In the future, Taniguchi hopes that the legacy of Japan's "cheerleader-in-chief" will help the country change for the better.
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Assassinated! Japan’s grief & how Shinzo Abe’s goals will shape Asia
How will the shocking assassination of Shinzo Abe, Japan's former and longest-serving prime minister, reshape the country and the broader region?
And will it lead to realizing Abe's unfulfilled dream of amending Japan's postwar pacifist constitution?
On GZERO World, Ian Bremmer speaks to longtime Abe adviser Tomohiko Taniguchi, who shares how he felt when he found out his close friend had died.
Taniguchi also weighs in on Abe's foreign policy legacy, whether current PM Fumio Kishida can pick up where his old boss left off, and how Abe's untimely death might ultimately change Japan.
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How did Shinzo Abe change Japan, and the world?
The late Shinzo Abe, Japan's former PM, often doesn't get enough credit for bolstering the morale of young Japanese, explains Tomohiko Taniguchi, Abe's former adviser and close friend, who spoke with Ian Bremmer on GZERO World.
On foreign policy, he is considered the architect of the Quad dialogue with the US, India, and Australia, though he failed to realize his dream of reforming Japan's constitution.
Taniguchi says Abe also tried his best to make peace with Russia, just falling short of signing a treaty to resolve the dispute over the Kuril Islands (which the Japanese refer to as the Northern Territories).
"Japan, unlike any other advanced nations, is encircled by [the] three undemocratic, militarist, authoritarian, nuclear regimes of Russia, North Korea, and China," he adds. "Shinzo Abe wanted to decrease the tension at least from Russia — to little avail."
Watch the GZERO World episode: Assassinated! Japan’s grief & how Shinzo Abe’s goals will shape Asia
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Japan's assertive foreign and economic policy reflect Abe's legacy
Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week on World In :60.
With Japanese people mourning former PM Shinzo Abe, how will his death further influence Japan's politics?
Well, we've already seen a fairly easy majority win by Abe's own Liberal Democratic Party. He had been stumping for them when he was assassinated. His two legacies are things that the Japanese are moving on. One, Abenomics, the three arrows of fiscal policy and monetary policy and growth really underpin the new style of capitalism that Prime Minister Kishida's been talking about. I think that they will more assertively align towards those, even though the BOJ at this point, The Bank of Japan doesn't have a lot of flexibility given the indebtedness levels. But also the Quad, the CPTPP, the desire of the Japanese, the prime minister to go to NATO for the summit a couple weeks ago. I mean, all of these were really kicked off by Abe wanting a more assertive foreign policy, normalizing their defense capabilities. You might even see a move now towards reforming the constitution on the defense side, something Abe wanted to do but didn't have the votes for. Now the LDP does. I expect to see Japan increasingly assertive on the global stage like you've seen Germany under Olaf Scholz.
Does recent polling indicate both Democrats and Republicans will ditch Biden and Trump in 2024?
No, but it definitely indicates that both of those men, in their late seventies today, will have significant primary challenges. It's too early to talk about DeSantis from Florida is sort of out in front and challenging Trump. At this point in the 2016 race, everyone was talking about Chris Christie is out in front. Things change, and they change a lot as people get to know other political contenders. But I think the lack of popularity of Biden in the Democratic Party and the desire to move on from Trump in the Republican Party... In the case of Biden, the difficulties in the economy and his age. In the case of Trump, the way that January 6th committee has played out, I think does create space and means that both of these primaries are going to be competitive. Frankly, I think in both cases, that would be good for democracy in the United States. But if you made me bet at this point, I'd still say incumbent for Biden and Trump getting another run at it is still the way you would bet against anybody else simply because it's too early to say and they're by far the most well known.
The euro and the dollar are equal. Is it time for Americans to visit Europe?
Has to be, right? I mean, sort of a dollar parody. Everything in Europe is looking pretty cheap. I mean, it sounds like a great time for a vacation in Italy and sort of go and buy some fashion. Why not, and help the European economies, except for the fact of course, that there is a war going on in Ukraine and there are big energy challenges. So I'm not sure that Germany in the winter sounds so great right now, but for Americans that are looking to get the hell out for a week or two, Europe is cheaper now than it's been at any point in 20 years. One thing I would say, though is don't go to the UK. Heathrow is an utter disaster, and they're telling them not to take any more flight reservations because they can't handle all the inbound.
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