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Japanese Prime Minister and the ruling Liberal Democratic Party leader Shigeru Ishiba is surrounded by security policemen as he meets with his supporters after he delivered a campaign speech for his party's candidate Masaaki Waki for the Upper House election in Yokohama, suburban Tokyo, Japan, on July 18, 2025.
Could a hard-right party swing Japan’s election?
Over the past decade, the world’s leading industrial democracies have become intensely polarized, particularly with the rise of anti-immigration populism in Europe and the United States. Japan, where the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) has led governments for all but four of the past 70 years, has defied that trend. But with elections looming this weekend, opinion polls say that may be changing fast.
On Sunday, Japan faces elections for the Upper House of the National Diet, the country’s legislature (click here for a good primer on how Upper House elections work). Last fall, the LDP-led coalition government lost its majority in the Lower House, and it badly needs an electoral rebound to avoid a period of uncertainty the country hasn’t seen in decades.
That rebound isn’t looking likely. A poll from broadcaster NHK found that Prime Minister Ishiba Shiberu’s approval rating fell from 39% in June to just 31% this week. His party is faring even worse. Support for the LDP dropped from 31.6% in June to a startling 24% now. Recent surveys from the Yomiuri Shimbun and Nikkei flash similar warning signs.
If the current governing coalition of the LDP and junior partner Komeito loses its Upper House majority, Ishiba’s future as PM will immediately come into question as we see the possible opening of negotiations with opposition parties on joining the government. There’s even a small chance that enough of Japan’s long-fragmented opposition could join forces to form an opposition-led coalition government.
Where is the LDP's public support going? Even in Japan, xenophobic populism is having a political moment as the need for migrant labor in a country with an aging population trumps a longtime public preference for cultural homogeneity and the immigration restrictions that protect it.
Sanseito, a rising party of the right, is an explicitly “Japan First,” anti-globalist, anti-immigrant upstart that’s now capturing enough attention in tough economic times that it could win 10 or more seats on Sunday – the hard-right party currently only has two seats in the Upper House. Given that Sanseito looks to be drawing most of its support from voters who’ve historically backed the LDP, it might also cost the long-dominant party its majority in a close election.
Sanseito is likely benefitting from Japan’s current economic hardship – rising prices, especially for imported food and energy, and falling real wages, in particular – fueled in part by a historically weak yen. Even at a time of dollar weakness, the Japanese currency fell to 149 yen against the dollar earlier this week. All this comes at a time when US President Donald Trump is driving a hard bargain with Japan’s beleaguered government on trade terms.
In short, Japan is not a country prone to political turmoil, but the results this weekend could change that very quickly.
Japanese Prime Minister and leader of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) Shigeru Ishiba bows to LDP lawmakers onstage after a press conference, a day after Japan's lower house election, at the party's headquarters in Tokyo, Japan October 28, 2024.
It’s horse-trading season in Japan after shock election
Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba is promising deep internal reforms to the Liberal Democratic Party after voters delivered what he called a “severe judgment” in Sunday’s elections, costing him the majority in the lower house of Parliament. The LDP has ruled since 1955 with only brief interruptions, but it lost 56 seats as voters expressed frustration with a funding scandal that has tarnished the party’s image with corruption and entitlement.
An unforced error? The PM only came to power on Oct. 1 in an internal party vote after his predecessor, Fumio Kishida, stepped down. Ishiba could have waited up to a year to call an election but wanted to win a mandate from voters quickly. A little patience might have paid off – and given him time to move away from the scandal and work on Japan’s sluggish economy.
What’s next? Ishiba has 30 days to form a coalition, and he will need to include an extra partner beyond traditional allies from the Komeito party. The most likely contender is the Democratic Party for the People, a fellow center-right party that saw its seat count rise from 7 to 28, but its leader is playing hardball. Yuichiro Tamaki says he would prefer to work with the LDP on an issue-by-issue basis — which would mean catering to his needs on every vote.
Will the US-Japan alliance suffer? Not likely. The alliance is a point of broad consensus in Tokyo, but plans to amp up Japanese defense may need to take a backseat.
Japan’s new PM: What to expect
Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week on World In :60.
Will there be political fallout in the aftermath of Hurricane Helene?
Lots of fallout for the lives and livelihoods of the people of the Carolinas and elsewhere, but the biggest damage is in both rural areas that largely vote "red" and urban areas that largely vote "blue." And frankly, that's a wash. Horrible morbid pun there, but the reality, I don't think it's going to be much impact come November.
What were the big takeaways from President Xi's speech celebrating the 75th anniversary of the People's Republic of China?
Well, first of all, very interesting. He didn't mention trade war, didn't mention the United States or other potential adversaries on the economic, technological military front by name. Did mention Taiwan, talked about the need to end the separatists and reunify, but nothing new there compared to other statements that he and other leaders have made. I would say the most important thing he talked about are the expectations of serious challenges going forward for the Chinese people. This is coming from a leader who is starting to move towards stimulus as opposed to just sort of incremental responses to economic challenges. A recognition that if they want to hit anywhere close to the 5% plus growth they want, they're going to need to do a lot from the fiscal side as the government. But he's messaging that this is going to be a hard time and it's structural. It's not a matter of a few months, it's a matter of years. And especially with the politics around the world and in the United States not working so well for China right now, that's a message that I think was more for domestic consumption than for international.
Finally, as Japan's new Prime Minister assembles his government, how will he set himself apart from former PM, Kishida?
Well, he's not a "pro-Abenomics" guy. This is someone that I think is going to be challenging from a market perspective. He's going to be fiscally very cautious. He's going to look to raise more revenue, and he's not really loved by the business community. It was the fifth time he tried to become Prime Minister, the former Minister of Defense. Fifth time's the charm apparently in the LDP. I'm not so concerned about potential changes on the international front. He's talked about an "Asian NATO" which is kind of a non-starter from the perspective of the United States. He does want joint control of bases in Okinawa,. That's changed the status quo. But ultimately, if the US pushes back, he'll accept that. The interesting thing about Japan is it's basically a single-party democracy. The Liberal Democratic Party really runs the show. They have an absolute majority in the Diet. They're likely to continue that after snap elections coming up real soon. And so it's really a question of which of the various factions inside that party who largely agree on worldview and on domestic policies ends up running the government. And this time around it is the former Minister of Defense.
- Hard Numbers: Helene hits hard, Zuckerberg enters the big leagues, US strikes Islamic State in Syria, Majority of Argentines live in poverty ›
- Biden and Kishida bromance is meant to make Xi sweat ›
- Viewpoint: How Abe still casts a shadow over Kishida in Japan ›
- Viewpoint: Kishida makes way for fresh face as his party's fortunes fade in Japan ›
FILE PHOTO: Japanese Yen and U.S. dollar banknotes are seen in this illustration taken March 10, 2023.
How long can Japan prop up the yen?
Japan’s currency slipped to 160 yen to the dollar on Monday, its lowest rate since 1990, triggering a government intervention and threatening Prime Minister Fumio Kishida’s position.
Voters are frustrated by Japan’s high cost of living, but a change in leadership is unlikely to alleviate the pain. The heavily populated island has few fossil fuel reserves, and it must import food and energy from abroad. That means when the yen weakens, ordinary folks see their bills shoot up.
The government employed a short-term fix: selling dollar reserves and buying yen to boost it. But Eurasia Group analyst David Boling says there’s not much to be done about the root of the problem.
“The yen’s weakness is being driven by the interest rate differential between the US, which has high interest rates and high bond yields, and Japan, which is very low,” he says. “Money is moving out of Japan to capture those higher yields.”
It might be another nail in the coffin for the PM, who could be replaced at the Liberal Democratic Party’s leadership conference this September.
“Japan has to have a lower house election by October 2025, and so the members of the LDP will be thinking about electing a leader who can take them through a national contest,” says Boling.
Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida.
Viewpoint: How Abe still casts a shadow over Kishida in Japan
Former Japanese PM Shinzo Abe was tragically gunned down one year ago. Yet he still casts a long shadow on Japanese politics and the agenda of current PM Fumio Kishida.
Last year, Kishida’s public approval ratings nosedived mainly because of controversies related to Abe, like the ruling Liberal Democratic Party’s ties to the Unification Church (or “Moonies”). Those ties go back decades to former PM Nobusuke Kishi, Abe’s grandfather. Since then, Kishida has regained his political footing. But when it comes to Japan’s national security, foreign affairs, and economic policies, Kishida still walks in Abe’s shadow. Or does he?
To get an idea of how this is all playing out, especially as Kishida mulls calling snap elections later this year, we sat down for a chat with David Boling, Eurasia Group’s lead Japan analyst.
What is Abe's main legacy on Japanese politics a year after his death?
He continues to exert outsized influence over day-to-day politics and policymaking.
At the time of his death, Abe was head of the largest faction, which now has 100 members, within the conservative LDP. That’s nearly double the size of the next largest faction. The caucus still bears his name, the “Abe faction,” and he remains the glue that holds them together. Even though a year has passed, they still can’t agree on a new standard bearer.
On policy, his vision outlives him too. Abe was a very controversial and provocative politician. He was edgy and relished a good fight. This made him unpopular and is the reason why most Japanese people opposed a state funeral for him — to the dismay of many foreign observers. But his policy vision transcends all that rancor. It might even be called mainstream now.
So as William Faulkner said, “The past is never dead. It’s not even past.”
What would Abe think of Kishida’s performance so far?
Abe would be happy to see that Kishida has supported increased defense spending, which is set to reach 2% of GDP by 2027. But he would question Kishida’s leadership abilities and not consider him conservative enough.
It’s worth remembering that before Abe was gunned down, he was positioning himself to make yet another run for prime minister. So Kishida certainly saw Abe as a political rival – you might even say they were “frenemies.” They were both LDP members and somewhat dependent on each other – Kishida had served nearly five years as Abe’s foreign minister. But they were suspicious of one another.
How has Kishida shaken off the controversy over the Moonies in the wake of Abe’s shooting?
Kishida took a huge beating in the polls last fall over the Unification Church scandal, even though Kishida himself had no personal connection to the church. It was Abe, members of his faction, and other LDP members who were chummy with the Moonies.
The controversy over LDP ties with the Moonies burned very hot but then fizzled out. In December, Kishida helped push through legislation to crack down on fundraising abuses by religious organizations. Since then, though, the issue has completely dropped out of opinion polling.
How has Kishida followed Abe’s playbook, and where has he distanced himself from his old boss?
Although he has sought to distance himself from “Abenomics” with his “new form of capitalism,” Kishida has stuck to Abe’s economic blueprint of big fiscal spending and ultra-loose monetary policy. That’s been a surprise.
On defense, Abe was a hawk. Kishida is a dove who has been mugged by the reality of China, North Korea, and Russia. So Kishida has become a supporter of spending more money on defense. He wants to raise taxes to pay for some of that increase, whereas Abe was fine just to pay for it with new debt.
Finally, the Japanese public sees amending the constitution to clarify the status of the self-defense forces as a low priority – as does Kishida – while it was a top priority for Abe.
How popular is Kishida today, and how much of a change/mandate is that for him moving forward?
Kishida’s popularity has been like a roller coaster. It was up at the beginning of his tenure. But it went down in the second half of last year to its lowest point. Then up from the beginning of this year through the G7 summit in Hiroshima. Now it’s heading down again.
Kishida is not as threatening as Abe, but his popular support does not run as deep either. The Japanese public has a “meh” attitude towards him. There’s a good chance he’ll dissolve the lower house and hold snap elections later this year, and those results will determine how much Kishida can do in the coming months.
U.S. President Joe Biden with Mexican President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador in Mexico City.
What We’re Watching: Biden in Mexico, Japan's Kishida on tour, Ukraine’s eastern flank
What’s on the agenda at the “Three Amigos Summit”?
A meeting of North American leaders known as the "Three Amigos Summit" kicked off in Mexico City on Monday with US President Joe Biden, Canadian PM Justin Trudeau and Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador, known as AMLO, set to meet face-to-face for the first time since Nov. 2021 to chart a path forward on a range of thorny issues. Biden was greeted by his Mexican counterpart a day after making his first visit to the US southern border since becoming president. Indeed, the two have plenty to talk about. While Washington usually calls the shots when it comes to the US-Mexico relationship, AMLO will be looking to earn some concessions from Biden, who is desperately seeking help in dealing with a chaotic situation at the US southern border. This comes after Biden announced in recent days that Mexico had agreed to take in tens of thousands of Nicaraguan, Haitian, and Cuban migrants denied entry into the US in exchange for more work visas for Mexican laborers. Still, the White House might ask for more: While AMLO has agreed to take in an extra 30,000 migrants per month from these countries (plus Venezuela), some 90,000 people from these four places sought to cross the US southern border in November alone. Stopping the drug smuggling trade from Mexico into the US will also be high on the agenda as fentanyl overdoses continue to devastate American communities. Much of the remaining conversation will center on the United States-Mexico-Canada trade deal: Ottawa and Washington have accused AMLO of exerting excessive state control over the energy market. Meanwhile, Canada-US ties have been strained since the Biden administration’s landmark Inflation Reduction Act, passed last summer, included a slew of tax breaks for buying US-made electric vehicles, which Ottawa says will cripple its car manufacturing industry.
Japan’s PM Kishida's seeks security assurances from allies
Japan’s PM Fumio Kishida has kicked off a trip to Europe and North America where he’ll seek to solidify new defense and security agreements with allies just months ahead of a G7 meeting in Hiroshima. This move comes after Tokyo adopted a new security doctrine in December, transitioning away from its pacifist defense posture that's been the law of the land since World War II. Kishida’s first stop was in Paris on Monday and will be followed by stops in Italy, the UK, Canada, and the US, where the Japanese defense and foreign ministers will also meet with their American counterparts. Indeed, Tokyo has left little doubt that its new strategy is aimed at defending itself from military advancements in China – and to a lesser extent North Korea – and is focused particularly on protecting its southwestern islands if China attacks Taiwan. As part of its new defense posture, Japan plans to start deploying long-range cruise missiles capable of hitting mainland China by 2026, improve its intelligence and cyber know-how and double its defense expenditure to 2% of GDP. What’s more, Kishida and Biden will discuss plans to establish a joint command in the Pacific, while in Europe, the joint development of a new fighter jet with the UK and Italy, to be rolled out by 2035, will likely top the agenda. We’re watching to see whether Kishida, facing a sluggish approval rating, gets a domestic boost from this act of international statesmanship, particularly as the Japanese population is increasingly mistrustful of Beijing.
Putin’s chef wants all of the salt
The forces of Wagner group, a mercenary army controlled by “Putin’s chef,” Yevgeny Prigozhin, have mounted a major assault on the town of Soledar, in eastern Ukraine. Soledar and the nearby town of Bakhmut are home to deep salt and gypsum mines, which Prigozhin says he wants access to so he can station troops and tanks inside their “underground cities.” For months, Moscow has been trying without success to take control of the area, ahead of what Ukraine has warned could be a fresh Russian offensive. Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky said Monday that the resistance of Ukrainian troops in Soledar and Bakhmut had “won for Ukraine additional time and additional strength.” But early on Tuesday, Russia claimed it already controls most of Soledar.Japan's Prime Minister Fumio Kishida attends a press conference in Tokyo, Japan.
Japan to go the way of the samurai: Why and at what cost?
After decades of pacifism, Japan recently announced that it will double its military budget over the next five years to become the world’s third-biggest defense spender behind the US and China.
How did Tokyo, whose commitment to pacifism is enshrined in the country’s post-war constitution, get here? And what are the implications – at home and abroad – of the world’s third-largest economy embarking on a major military buildup?
Japan’s move towards beefing up its military posture has been incremental. Tokyo's transition to increasing its fighting capacity has taken decades of debate by successive governments. Politically, the measures have been slow but steady, with many initiated during the long tenure of recently slain former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, including a more enhanced role of the National Security Council, which has translated into the loosening of arms controls, the constitutional re-definition of collective defense to fight alongside partners, and Tokyo’s founding membership of the Quad. More recently, Tokyo unveiled its first new national security strategy in a decade.
What is Prime Minister Fumio Kishida actually pushing for? In short, doubling the defense budget to 2% of GDP by 2027. For starters, $315 billion are earmarked for multi-dimensional defense over the next five years, including the acquisition of Tomahawk cruise missiles that could hit targets in mainland China. Critically, besides filling a major gap through a 20,000-strong cyber force, Japan would also build counter-strike capabilities to conduct retaliatory attacks on and across the Korean Peninsula, with the ability to penetrate Chinese defenses.
This isn’t just a military tech upgrade. It’s the end of the country’s pacifist foreign policy. “For years, Japan talked the talk — about increasing defense spending and acquiring counter-strike missile capabilities — without walking the walk,” says David Boling, director of Japan & Asia Trade at Eurasia Group. “Now it's walking the walk. Maybe even starting to run.”
Why is famously pacifist Japan beefing up at this rate? For more than half a century, Tokyo has refused to call its military a military – referring to it as a self-defense force – and has limited its uniformed engagements to multilateral peacekeeping missions aligned closely with the US.
“The reason for Japan’s new hawkishness can be explained in one word: China,” Boling says.
“China’s constant intrusions into Japan’s territorial waters, its rapid military buildup, and its firing five ballistic missiles into Japan’s exclusive economic zone in August during the military exercises around Taiwan — all these combined to reach the tipping point for Japan,” adds Boling.
But China’s buildup isn’t just rapid and advanced. For a Japan haunted by memories of Hiroshima and Nagasaki, it’s increasingly nuclear too. Considering that Japan has long supported Taiwanese democracy, the more Beijing threatens Taiwan, the more imperiled Japan feels. This is due to both the political and geographical proximity between Tokyo and Taipei.
The problem on the peninsula. Japan is also feeling increasingly threatened by Pyongyang. Experts think a fresh nuclear test looks inevitable – which would be the seventh since Pyongyang went nuclear in 2006 (the last one was carried out in 2017). North Korea has conducted 86 missile tests this year, an all-time high, with many projectiles launched into Japanese airspace.
Add Russia’s actions in Ukraine, as well as China’s saber-rattling with India in the Himalayas to the contemporary geopolitical mix, and the messaging for Tokyo is clear: Aggression isn’t a mere policy option. On the Eurasian landmass, when strong armies confront a weaker force, it’s an actual policy.
The politics of it all. Kishida is already facing pushback at home. Influential members of his Liberal Democratic Party have already renounced his solution for paying for the spending hike by increasing taxes. The pushback from within the ruling party may also be connected to Kishida’s low approval ratings, which are hovering in the 30s and have been hammered by a year of controversial decisions, a weak economy, and a spiraling yen.
Critically, more than 60% of Japanese favor the newly proposed counter-strike capability. In a new poll released after the proposed militarization, the majority of respondents favored Kishida’s plan to boost defense, with 55% endorsing the new national security plan.
Moreover, Eurasia Group’s Boling surmises that Kishida has some other factors in his corner, including a weak opposition, growing national support for sanctions against Russia, and years of experience in navigating national security as a former foreign minister. Kishida’s also wary of recent China-centric and defense-based polling: According to a recent survey, a third of the Japanese population thinks that there will be a military conflict in the Taiwan Strait.
Indeed, according to Boling, the recent intra-party controversy over raising taxes for defense is a sign of what’s to come.
“It augurs increased friction between Kishida and other leading LDP members in 2023,” he says.
Smoke rises after a Russian drones strike on Kyiv, Ukraine.
What We’re Watching: Drones over Kyiv, GOP’s advantage, Kishida’s church probe
Russia starts droning on
Russia attacked targets across Ukraine on Monday with Iranian-made “suicide drones,” which fly into targets and then explode. At least four people were killed when one of them struck an apartment complex in Kyiv. The building is located across the street from the offices of Ukraine’s national energy company, which may have been the intended target. That’s consistent with Russia’s recent approach of striking critical civilian infrastructure in retaliation for Ukraine’s sabotage of the Kerch Strait bridge earlier this month. Also on Monday, a Russian drone strike crippled a major sunflower oil export terminal in the southern city of Mykolaiv, raising the prospect of a renewed turbulence in prices for cooking oil, a staple in kitchens around the world. Tehran denies supplying the drones, but experts say they are clearly Shahed-136 drones from Iran. Until now, drones have been deployed to the most devastating effect by the Ukrainians, but Russia — suffering military setbacks on the ground and unable to establish aerial dominance — could be seeking a way to strike lots of targets crudely and at a relatively low cost. Although drones are slow-moving and easier to shoot down than jets or missiles, Ukraine is still calling for better air defenses overall. See our recent interview with a Ukrainian drone operator here.
Republicans’ midterm edge
We are in the homestretch before US midterm elections on Nov. 8, and things are looking up for … Republicans. A New York Times/Siena College poll released Monday shows that economic issues are top of mind for voters, with 44% of Americans polled listing it as their top concern, up from 36% in July. What’s more, as inflationary pressures persist, a majority of voters (64%) now see Republicans as better equipped to tackle cost-of-living issues. Part of the reason for the Dems’ poor outlook is that midterms are often seen as a referendum on the president’s performance, and President Joe Biden is not a popular guy. Another trend identified by the poll is growing support for Republicans amongst independents – a crucial electorate – with the GOP having edged out team blue to establish a 10-point lead among these voters. These revelations are devastating for Democrats, who were hoping the reversal of Roe vs. Wade – an unpopular move with independents – as well as renewed calls for gun regulation after a spate of recent shootings, might bode well for their electoral prospects. The GOP looks set to take control of the House, but keep an eye on the Senate, where several key races are neck-and-neck.