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Japanese Prime Minister and leader of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) Shigeru Ishiba bows to LDP lawmakers onstage after a press conference, a day after Japan's lower house election, at the party's headquarters in Tokyo, Japan October 28, 2024.

REUTERS/Kim Kyung-Hoon/Pool

It’s horse-trading season in Japan after shock election

Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba is promising deep internal reforms to the Liberal Democratic Party after voters delivered what he called a “severe judgment” in Sunday’s elections, costing him the majority in the lower house of Parliament. The LDP has ruled since 1955 with only brief interruptions, but it lost 56 seats as voters expressed frustration with a funding scandal that has tarnished the party’s image with corruption and entitlement.

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Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba is pictured during a media interview at the headquarters of his ruling Liberal Democratic Party in Tokyo on Oct. 27, 2024.

Kyodo via Reuters Connect

Japan’s ruling coalition loses majority

Japan’s Liberal Democratic Party and coalition partner Komeito lost their parliamentary majority on Sunday in an election dominated by economic and ethical issues.

“The LDP got thumped,” said David Boling, Eurasia Group's Japan director, noting that a recent political fundraising corruption scandal was its downfall. “It tried to sweep the political fundraising scandal under the rug, but the voters weren’t having it.”

The LDP now holds 191 seats in the 465-seat lower house, its worst performance since 2009. Komeito holds 24, while the main opposition party, the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan, has 148, and two smaller parties, the Democratic Party for the People and Japan Innovation Party won 28 and 38 seats respectively – making them possible partners in the new government.

Foreign policy feud? Komeito has resisted the LDP’s push to abandon Japan’s post-World War II pacifism, opposing moves to double military spending, acquire longer-range weapons, and lift restrictions on military exports. In contrast, the JIP is led by Donald Trump-admirer Nobuyuki Baba and favors increased defense spending and revising Japan’s constitution to boost military engagement.

Next steps: Japan’s defensive capabilities depend on popular will and economic recovery. With growing tensions with China, Russia, and North Korea, and the upcoming US election, Ishiba’s first job is to achieve political stability and get the country’s fiscal house in order.

October 23, 2024, Kamagaya, Japan - Japanese Prime Minister and leader of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) Shigeru Ishiba reacts to his supporters after he delivered a campaign speech for his party candidate Hisashi Matsumoto for the general election at Kamagaya in Chiba prefecture, suburban Tokyo on Wednesday, October 23, 2024.

(photo by Yoshio Tsunoda/AFLO)

Will Japan’s LDP lose its grip on power?

As Japan heads to the polls this Sunday, Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba’s decision to call an early election just weeks after taking office is turning out to be a high-stakes gamble. Polls predict that the ruling Liberal Democratic Party could lose seats, or even the majority, after ruling the country for all but four of the past 65 years.

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Japan's Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba arrives for a group photograph with his new cabinet members at the prime minister's official residence in Tokyo, Japan, October 1, 2024.

Toru Hanai/Pool via REUTERS

Hard Numbers: Ishiba forms his Cabinet, Haiti plagued by hunger, Tunisia jails opposition candidate, Eurozone inflation drops, Cambodian journalist arrested

2: He may think women should inherit the imperial thrones, but that doesn’t mean Japan’s Prime Minister-elect Shigeru Ishiba is an equal opportunity employer. Of his 19 newly appointed Cabinet ministers, only two are women, whom he’s appointed as children’s policy minister and education minister. His appointments also included two former defense ministers Ishiba has worked with in the past – one as foreign minister, another as his defense chief – signaling the new PM’s focus on security issues.

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FILE PHOTO: Shigeru Ishiba, the newly elected leader of Japan's ruling party, the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) holds a press conference after the LDP leadership election, in Tokyo, Japan September 27, 2024.

REUTERS/Kim Kyung-Hoon/Pool/File Photo

Is Japan ready for a populist PM?

Japan’s new prime minister-elect is no conventional politician by Tokyo standards. Shigeru Ishiba, 67, has sought the top job five times during his 40-year political career, but his candor was unappreciated by colleagues. After a slew of scandals and resignations, however, the Liberal Democratic Party desperately needed change, and Ishiba’s no-nonsense approach and pledge to clean up the party won the day in Friday’s runoff election.

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