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It’s horse-trading season in Japan after shock election
Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba is promising deep internal reforms to the Liberal Democratic Party after voters delivered what he called a “severe judgment” in Sunday’s elections, costing him the majority in the lower house of Parliament. The LDP has ruled since 1955 with only brief interruptions, but it lost 56 seats as voters expressed frustration with a funding scandal that has tarnished the party’s image with corruption and entitlement.
An unforced error? The PM only came to power on Oct. 1 in an internal party vote after his predecessor, Fumio Kishida, stepped down. Ishiba could have waited up to a year to call an election but wanted to win a mandate from voters quickly. A little patience might have paid off – and given him time to move away from the scandal and work on Japan’s sluggish economy.
What’s next? Ishiba has 30 days to form a coalition, and he will need to include an extra partner beyond traditional allies from the Komeito party. The most likely contender is the Democratic Party for the People, a fellow center-right party that saw its seat count rise from 7 to 28, but its leader is playing hardball. Yuichiro Tamaki says he would prefer to work with the LDP on an issue-by-issue basis — which would mean catering to his needs on every vote.
Will the US-Japan alliance suffer? Not likely. The alliance is a point of broad consensus in Tokyo, but plans to amp up Japanese defense may need to take a backseat.Japan’s ruling coalition loses majority
Japan’s Liberal Democratic Party and coalition partner Komeito lost their parliamentary majority on Sunday in an election dominated by economic and ethical issues.
“The LDP got thumped,” said David Boling, Eurasia Group's Japan director, noting that a recent political fundraising corruption scandal was its downfall. “It tried to sweep the political fundraising scandal under the rug, but the voters weren’t having it.”
The LDP now holds 191 seats in the 465-seat lower house, its worst performance since 2009. Komeito holds 24, while the main opposition party, the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan, has 148, and two smaller parties, the Democratic Party for the People and Japan Innovation Party won 28 and 38 seats respectively – making them possible partners in the new government.
Foreign policy feud? Komeito has resisted the LDP’s push to abandon Japan’s post-World War II pacifism, opposing moves to double military spending, acquire longer-range weapons, and lift restrictions on military exports. In contrast, the JIP is led by Donald Trump-admirer Nobuyuki Baba and favors increased defense spending and revising Japan’s constitution to boost military engagement.
Will Japan’s LDP lose its grip on power?
As Japan heads to the polls this Sunday, Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba’s decision to call an early election just weeks after taking office is turning out to be a high-stakes gamble. Polls predict that the ruling Liberal Democratic Party could lose seats, or even the majority, after ruling the country for all but four of the past 65 years.
“The opposition parties are hammering the LDP over the political fundraising scandal,” says Eurasia Group’s Japan Director David Boling, referring to the discovery of undisclosed political funds and kickbacks within the LDP, news that has rattled public trust at a time when inflation is biting and living costs are soaring.
Earlier polls showed that the LDP and its coalition partner Komeito would maintain their majority, but a weekend poll indicating they could lose 50 of their 247 seats has left Ishiba on shaky ground.
If the LDP loses its majority, it could be forced to make concessions on monetary policy. The Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan, LDP’s biggest opposition, proposes modifying the Bank of Japan’s inflation target from 2% to one “exceeding zero,” which would leave room for rate hikes even if inflation dips.
Beyond having to abandon its economic agenda, Boling warns that “if the LDP-Komeito coalition loses its majority, the prime minister’s deathwatch may begin for Ishiba.”
Hard Numbers: Ishiba forms his Cabinet, Haiti plagued by hunger, Tunisia jails opposition candidate, Eurozone inflation drops, Cambodian journalist arrested
2: He may think women should inherit the imperial thrones, but that doesn’t mean Japan’s Prime Minister-elect Shigeru Ishiba is an equal opportunity employer. Of his 19 newly appointed Cabinet ministers, only two are women, whom he’s appointed as children’s policy minister and education minister. His appointments also included two former defense ministers Ishiba has worked with in the past – one as foreign minister, another as his defense chief – signaling the new PM’s focus on security issues.
5.4 million: Hunger amid horrifying gang violence in Haiti has led nearly 6,000 people to the brink of starvation, according to a new report by the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification. Nearly half the 11-million-strong country – a whopping 5.4 million Haitians – are facing crisis levels of hunger and famine. The Kenyan-led intervention force has had its UN mandate extended by a year, but an effort to turn it into a formal UN peacekeeping mission was stymied by China and Russia.
12: Running for office in Tunisia can win you … years behind bars, apparently. Ayachi Zammel, a candidate in the country’s Oct. 6 presidential election, is facing 12 years in jail for cases related to voter endorsements, his lawyer said. Zammel, who remains on the ballot, was one of just two candidates approved by Tunisia's electoral authority ISIE to challenge President Kais Saied.
1.8: European homebuyers may have cause to celebrate: Inflation in the Eurozone last month dropped to 1.8%, coming in below the European Central Bank’s 2% target for the first time in three years. As a result, the ECB is expected to drop the rate by a quarter point when it meets on Oct. 17.
2: Award-winning journalist Mech Dara has been arrested and charged for social media posts that could “incite social unrest,” a Cambodian court said. Dara, who has reported on corruption and human trafficking, faces a two-year sentence if convicted, and human rights groups are calling for his release.Is Japan ready for a populist PM?
Japan’s new prime minister-elect is no conventional politician by Tokyo standards. Shigeru Ishiba, 67, has sought the top job five times during his 40-year political career, but his candor was unappreciated by colleagues. After a slew of scandals and resignations, however, the Liberal Democratic Party desperately needed change, and Ishiba’s no-nonsense approach and pledge to clean up the party won the day in Friday’s runoff election.
Described as a “plainspoken populist,” Ishiba’s blunt style put him on the outs with former PM Shinzo Abe,and he was reportedly hated by former PM Taro Aso. Ishiba also openly criticized outgoing PM Fumio Kishida, a no-no in Japan’s conservative political culture. Some of Ishiba’s policy positions, such as agreeing that women should inherit the imperial thrones — were highly controversial and opposed by many in the ruling Liberal Democratic Party, including his chief female rival, Sanae Takaichi, whom Ishiba defeated last week.
What’s next?
Ishiba faces serious challenges at home and abroad. Japan’s middle class is struggling with stagnant wages, a weak yen, and soaring food prices. Hefavors maintaining loose fiscal policy, combined with targeted spending to boost wages and to support households struggling with inflation. Hehas also pledged “large-scale regional development” to revitalize Japan’s depopulating countryside by attracting innovators and entrepreneurs.
On foreign policy, Ishiba also walks to the beat of his own drum. He has proposed an Asian version of NATO and favors Japan developing its own nuclear deterrent, both of which go further than what Washington considers practical. Ishiba’s tough defense stance includes building up a more independent capability, and he has called for revising the two countries’ 1960 security agreement on US military bases, arguing it feels outdated and reminiscent of post-war occupation.