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A photovoltaic power station with a capacity of 0.8 MW covers an area of more than 3,000 square metres at the industrial site of the Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant, Kyiv region, Ukraine, on April 12, 2025.
The US-Ukraine minerals deal is finally done
Two months after their infamous White House fight, the US and Ukraine announced on Wednesday that they had finally struck a long-awaited minerals deal.
What’s in this deal? Leaked versions of the agreement signal that it creates a joint US-Ukraine investment fund to prospect for Ukraine’s critical minerals.It’s also believed to include US access not just to critical minerals but also to Ukraine’s oil, gas, and energy infrastructure. The minerals include lithium, titanium, and large reserves of graphite, an essential component in the batteries that power electric vehicles. Ukraine also claims significant quantities of rare earth metals that power a wide range of consumer products and high-tech weapons.
Will the deal help end the war? Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky has argued the deal would give Washington a stake in Ukraine’s peaceful future, making it less likely that US President Donald Trump would halt all US support for Ukraine’s defense against Russian invaders. Trump prides himself on his ability to cut big deals and will protect an agreement once signed. The president noted during a press event at the White House yesterday that the US presence in Ukraine “will keep a lot of bad actors out of the country.” That’s clearly what Kyiv is hoping for.
But this deal, however lucrative for the US and useful for a Ukraine desperate to keep Trump onside, doesn’t change the reality that Kyiv and Moscow’s visions for Ukraine’s future are fundamentally incompatible. That said, anything that keeps Washington invested in Ukraine’s defense will be greeted as good news in Kyiv.
One last step. Ukraine’s parliament must still ratify the framework for the deal before it becomes law.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and US President Donald Trump meet while they attend the funeral of Pope Francis at the Vatican on April 26, 2025.
Funeral diplomacy: World leaders push for peace in Rome
Has the pope’s funeral set the stage for peace in Ukraine? At the Vatican on Saturday, US President Donald Trump sat down with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky for a meeting the White House described as “very productive,” and which Zelensky said had the “potential to become historic, if we achieve joint results.” Zelensky also met separately with Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer, and French President Emmanuel Macron, who later claimed that Ukraine was ready for an “unconditional ceasefire”and that it’s “now up to Russia to prove that it truly wants to end this war.”
Trump also threw the ball into Russia’s court – but it landed more like a grenade. After meeting Zelensky, the US President posted to Truth Social that he feared Russian President Vladimir Putin might have been “tapping” – aka, deceiving – him about his willingness to end the war. The evidence? Russia’s continued bombardment of Ukraine, including an attack Thursday that killed 12 people and injured 90. Trump suggested that now Putin must be “dealt with differently,” possibly through banking or secondary sanctions. At the same time, the US president claimed late Sunday that Ukraine was ready to yield Crimea – Zelensky said last week this was a nonstarter.
The response? Hours later, Russia launched a large-scale drone and airstrike assault across Ukraine, killing at least four people and injuring several others. Each country also targeted the other overnight with long-range attacks, though there were no immediate reports of casualties. Mediators are now urging the two sides to the table in what US Secretary of State Marco Rubio described as a “critical week” for resolving the conflict.
Oh and by the way. Though it had been known for some time,North Korea formally acknowledged on Sunday that it has been lending troops to the Russian cause. Separately, the Trump administration is reportedly looking to reopen talks with the North Korean regime, after Trump held a pair of talks with Kim Jong Un during his first term in office.A search and rescue operation is underway in the Sviatoshynskyi district after a massive overnight missile and drone attack by Russian troops, Kyiv, Ukraine, on April 24, 2025. At least eight people were killed in the strike, and 77 people sustained injuries.
Another setback for Russia-Ukraine peace talks
It’s all Big Smoke and no fire in London, as US Secretary of State Marco Rubio pulled out of Russia-Ukraine peace talks with a coalition of European leaders that were scheduled to take place in the British capital on Wednesday. The decision came right as Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky rebuffed the Americans’ peace plan that involved formally recognizing Crimea as Russian territory. US special envoy Steve Witkoff, who also canceled plans to be in London, is instead headed to Moscow for his fourth round of talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin.
Breaking overnight. Russia pounded Kyiv overnight with missiles and drone strikes, killing at least eight people and injuring dozens more. It was the heaviest attack on the Ukrainian capital since July. Zelensky was in South Africa when the bombs hit, but he will cut short the trip and return home early.
The Americans pile on the pressure. Rubio warned last week that the US will “move on” from peace talks if a deal wasn’t eminently “doable.” Vice President JD Vance echoed this sentiment on Wednesday. President Donald Trump pushed the Ukrainians to accept the peace deal on Wednesday, while claiming that Russia was on the verge of accepting it.
Would the terms be enough for Russia? It’s unclear, but Putin reportedly offered to pause fighting on Tuesday in an apparent effort to reach a peace deal. On the other hand, the Russian leader’s past comments suggest he wants more.
“Putin last year said he also expects Ukraine to give up control over the parts of the claimed regions that Russia does not yet control,” said Alex Brideau, Russia director at Eurasia Group. “It may also demand new elections, on the assumption that it would lead a government that is friendlier to Russia.”
“Whether that’s realistic,” Brideau added, “Putin appears unwilling to deviate much from these demands.”
How Ukraine feels about negotiating with Russia
What would Ukraine be willing to offer Russia to bring an end to the war? It’s a question that’s been asked over and over, but now seems closer to reality than any point since the fighting began. As the White House negotiates with the Kremlin for a ceasefire deal, would Kyiv be willing to cede territory to get Moscow to the negotiating table? On GZERO World, Ian Bremmer sat down with former Ukrainian foreign minister Dmytro Kuleba for a sober assessment of the war—and what it will take to end it. According to Kuleba, who resigned last September amid a cabinet shuffle, Ukraine is ready to compromise, but not if it means giving away the rights to what millions of Ukrainians see as historically, legally theirs. A nation that abandons its dream, he warns, is “determined to lose.” It will also take more than concessions from Ukraine to achieve a meaningful ceasefire. According to the foreign minister, the Trump administration needs to start getting tough on Putin to make it clear to him Russia can’t win this war on its own.
“The goal of President Trump to end the war is commendable,” Kuleba explains, “The problem is that his strategy is to leverage Ukraine with sticks while leveraging Russia with carrots.”
Watch the full GZERO World episode: Will Russia agree to a ceasefire in Ukraine?
GZERO World with Ian Bremmer, the award-winning weekly global affairs series, airs nationwide on US public television stations (check local listings).
New digital episodes of GZERO World are released every Monday on YouTube. Don't miss an episode: subscribe to GZERO's YouTube channel and turn on notifications (🔔).GZERO World with Ian Bremmer airs on US public television weekly - check local listings.
Will Russia agree to a ceasefire in Ukraine?
President Trump has made it clear: He wants a ceasefire in Ukraine. The White House has been engaging with Russia diplomatically, while making it clear to Kyiv that ongoing US military support isn’t a guarantee. The problem? Moscow has so far shown no interest in meaningful compromise. Instead, the Kremlin is slow walking negotiations and increasing demands for concessions, all the while advancing on the battlefield and targeting Ukraine’s population centers with drone strikes. The delay tactics are testing the patience of the friendliest White House it’s faced in years. But will the Trump administration actually start piling the pressure on Russia? And even if Putin makes a deal, can Kyiv trust him to honor it? On GZERO World, Former Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba joins Ian Brmmer to discuss President Trump’s negotiation strategy, Russia’s goals, and Ukraine’s uncertain future.
“Did Putin come to Ukraine to take part of it or all of it?,” Kuleba explains, “If you believe Putin came after the whole of Ukraine because it is so important to him to get it under his control, then there is no ground to negotiate.”
GZERO World with Ian Bremmer, the award-winning weekly global affairs series, airs nationwide on US public television stations (check local listings).
New digital episodes of GZERO World are released every Monday on YouTube. Don't miss an episode: subscribe to GZERO's YouTube channel and turn on notifications (🔔).GZERO World with Ian Bremmer airs on US public television weekly - check local listings.
Pushing Putin for a ceasefire: Dmytro Kuleba on Ukraine's future and Russia's goals
Listen: What will it take to end Russia’s invasion of Ukraine? President Trump is pushing hard for a ceasefire deal, but is Vladimir Putin actually interested in negotiation? On the GZERO World Podcast, Ian Bremmer is joined by former Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba for a sober assessment of the war with Russia—and what it will take to end it. Kuleba resigned last year amid a cabinet shuffle, but spent years at the heart of Ukraine’s diplomatic fight for survival. As long as Russia believes it can win the war, he says, Putin will never compromise on a meaningful ceasefire deal. That won’t change until the Kremlin faces serious pressure from the White House, which so far has seemed to only offer incentives to Moscow, while punishing Kyiv, according to Kuleba. So is Trump ready to get tough on Putin? And what is Ukraine prepared to offer Russia in return to bring the fighting to an end? Bremmer and Kuleba discuss Putin’s goals in the war, the Trump administration's negotiation strategy, and what it will take to finally bring peace to Ukraine.
Subscribe to the GZERO World Podcast on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, or your preferred podcast platform, to receive new episodes as soon as they're published.
Will Trump pressure Putin for a Ukraine ceasefire?
On the campaign trail, Donald Trump said ending the war in Ukraine would be easy. Again and again, he promised to end the fighting within “24 hours” of taking office. But as president, and as Russia drags its feet in ceasefire negotiations, Trump has walked that confidence back. On Ian Explains, Ian Bremmer looks at President Trump’s push for a ceasefire deal in Ukraine and what it will take to bring both sides to the negotiating table. The Trump administration has been engaging diplomatically with Moscow and making it clear to Kyiv that ongoing US support isn’t a guarantee.
The problem is that so far, the Kremlin seems uninterested in meaningful compromise. Instead, it’s been slow-walking negotiations and increasing its demands for concessions, all while advancing on the battlefield and targeting Ukraine’s population centers with drone strikes. Turns out, diplomacy is a lot more complicated than a Manhattan real estate deal: complex, slow, and full of people who don’t care about self-imposed deadlines. But there are signs that the president’s patience with Moscow is wearing thin. As Russia keeps stalling, will Trump start piling the pressure on Putin to make a ceasefire happen?
GZERO World with Ian Bremmer, the award-winning weekly global affairs series, airs nationwide on US public television stations (check local listings).
New digital episodes of GZERO World are released every Monday on YouTube. Don't miss an episode: subscribe to GZERO's YouTube channel and turn on notifications (🔔).GZERO World with Ian Bremmer airs on US public television weekly - check local listings.
Ukraine ceasefire deal now awaits Putin's response
Ian Bremmer's Quick Take: A Quick Take on the back of the Riyadh meeting between the Americans and the Ukrainians, a very different reaction to when President Zelensky was visiting the White House just a week and a bit ago. Here we have a Zelensky emissary, senior delegation meeting with Rubio, secretary of State and National Security Advisor Mike Waltz, and coming out with a significant improvement in Ukraine's position.
First, an end of the suspension of delivery of US military aid and intelligence provision, which is critical for the Ukrainians being able to continue to defend themselves. And in return, Ukraine and the United States both announcing acceptance of terms for a 30-day, no condition ceasefire, end of the fighting exactly where it is right now. No territory changes, hands, no promises of anything beyond that. No guarantees about NATO, no promises not to join NATO, nothing like that. And now it goes to the Russians. And that is clearly not what the Russians wanted to hear.
Now, Zelensky played the cards he doesn't have much better since leaving the White House, saying he would indeed go ahead and sign a critical minerals deal, writing a letter apologizing to the American president for any misunderstandings when they had that meeting together in the Oval Office. But now, Zelensky is no longer an obstacle from Trump's perspective on the path to peace, he's accepted Trump's terms. I expect the Europeans will come out and support that 30-day cease ceasefire in very short order, and the question is for Putin.
Now, Putin is of course gaining territory. He has momentum, and so he doesn't have an awful lot of interest in accepting an immediate ceasefire right now, especially not with any strings attached to it. I mean, he has all sorts of strings he wants to attach to. It wants to ensure that Zelensky isn't president, wants to make sure that Ukraine can, at no point, ever join NATO, has broader conditions in terms of NATO not expanding, of the Americans pulling troops back from their rotations in Poland, in the Baltic states, all sorts of demands that Putin has. And furthermore, Putin has engaged with the United States, both indirectly, as we saw in Riyadh a couple of weeks ago, as well as directly, in a 90 minute phone call with President Trump. And while Ukraine was a part of those conversations, it wasn't the focus. The focus for Putin was a much broader conversation about realigning the Americans and Russians to work together, work together on broader security issues like the Arctic and on nuclear arms control, get the sanctions off that the United States has imposed against Russia and individual oligarchs, and generally normalized relations. And none of that is, at least as of right now, on the table for Putin.
What is on the table for Putin, right now, is accept a 30-day ceasefire, with the lines of territorial control being exactly where they are, including the occupation of a small amount of Russian territory incursed by the Ukrainians who have been fighting there. And I suspect that Putin really doesn't want to accept that. So if you're Putin, what do you do? Well, one thing you do is you try to see how fast you can actually get a face-to-face with Trump so that you don't just talk about that deal, but you put it in the context of a much broader deal and you keep the Europeans out of it, which of course is essential to any larger deal that the Americans and Russians cut because the Europeans continue to see Russia as their principal adversary, their principal enemy. Will he be successful in doing that?
Well, one open question will be, we just heard from Mike Waltz and Marco Rubio, but what are we hearing from Trump? Is Trump going to completely support everything they just said? Will he endorse this deal with no qualifiers and say that Putin now has to accept it? Because if he does, that gives less wiggle room for Putin. If he doesn't, and he talks about how this is a great opportunity and we want to have a better relationship, then it gives Putin a little bit of time. It also allows him to put conditionality on what, as of the Riyadh meeting, did not have any conditions.
So certainly for those of us following this very closely, a good meeting for the Ukrainians, a relief for the Europeans, that felt like they were about to have their guy in Kyiv thrown under a bus. There's some rehabilitation that's actually happened. And a very open question for Putin who is a tough negotiator and has shown no indication, heretofore, that he's interested in an immediate ceasefire. He is the one that stands to lose the most from accepting the terms as they just came out of Riyadh and it's very hard to imagine that he'll accept them by themselves, as they are. What are the consequences of that? That's what we're going to have to watch, play out.