Trending Now
We have updated our Privacy Policy and Terms of Use for Eurasia Group and its affiliates, including GZERO Media, to clarify the types of data we collect, how we collect it, how we use data and with whom we share data. By using our website you consent to our Terms and Conditions and Privacy Policy, including the transfer of your personal data to the United States from your country of residence, and our use of cookies described in our Cookie Policy.
{{ subpage.title }}
The return of the nuclear threat, with Admiral James Stavridis
Listen: The world is heading toward a new nuclear arms race—one that’s more chaotic and dangerous than the last. The Cold War built rules of deterrence for a world of dueling superpowers and static arsenals. But in a fragmented, GZERO world of fast-moving technology and unpredictable leadership, the safeguards are fraying. On the GZERO World Podcast, Admiral James Stavridis, former Supreme Allied Commander of NATO, sits down with Ian Bremmer to discuss the growing nuclear threat and what we can do to stop it.
The indicators are alarming: China is stockpiling nuclear warheads at record speed. Russia continues to rattle its nuclear saber in Ukraine. Even US allies are privately and publicly questioning whether they need a deterrent of their own. So how serious is the nuclear risk? How do we guarantee security in a world where the weapons (and the rules) are changing? Are we ready for a future where not just missiles, but lines of code, could end civilization? Stavridis and Bremmer assess the current arms race and what it will take to lower the nuclear temperature.
“We're already involved in a proxy war with a nuclear power,” Stavridis warns, “We'd be smart to try and continue to have strong alliances to balance China and Russia drawing closer and closer together.”
Russian President Vladimir Putin attends a meeting with Head of the Federal Service for Financial Monitoring Yury Chikhanchin at the Kremlin in Moscow, Russia, on July 8, 2025.
Russia’s dark future
At first glance, Russia has coped well under the weight of Ukraine-related Western sanctions. In 2024, its economy grew at a faster rate than every G7 country. Though Europe has gone almost entirely cold turkey on Russian oil and gas supplies, thirst for these resources in China and India, quenched by a shadow tanker fleet that helps evade those sanctions, has kept Russia’s energy trade stable.
Longer term, climate change can help. Warming temperatures will open new Russian lands to farming and boost its agricultural output. They will open new sea routes that lower Russia’s cost of commerce and bring revenue from transit fees imposed on others. Perhaps most importantly, the Kremlin has long claimed it can transition from its currently heavy reliance on oil and gas exports to deeper investment in wind, hydro, geothermal, biomass, hydrogen, and solar energy.
But the realities of Russia’s future are darkening.
Its economy has become addicted to war in Ukraine. Its growth over the past two years was fueled mainly by the tidal wave of military spending needed to eke out modest gains in what’s become a war of attrition. Military and security spending now make up about 40% of Russia’s total government expenditure. This spending surge is sending inflation into overdrive, forcing Russia’s central bank to raise interest rates to a record 21%, raising borrowing costs for businesses and slowing future investment. Manufacturing has slowed and ordinary Russians aren’t spending.
None of this will persuade President Vladimir Putin to cut a deal with Ukraine – and that’s Russia’s bigger problem. Current evidence suggests Putin intends to keep doubling down on a war that leaves a supposed great military power to take 1,000 casualties per day to make tentative gains of a few kilometers, to kill Ukrainian civilians, and to laud slow advances on individual towns and villages in a war that’s already dragged on for three years and four months.
In addition, while China and India remain eager to buy the energy Russia pumps out of the ground, they know the loss of Moscow’s best customers in Europe allows them to buy the product at a below-market price. China, with an economy nearly nine times larger than Russia’s, has done remarkably little to help Putin win his war. India has shifted large volumes of arms purchases from Russia to the United States. The Kremlin’s trade problem is compounded by the reality that even ending the war with Ukraine won’t bring mistrustful Europeans to return to their former volumes of trade with Russia.
But Russia’s biggest problems are found inside its borders. Longtime reliance on the revenue from exports of oil, gas, metals, and minerals has allowed Russia to avoid large-scale investment in the digital-age industries needed for an innovative 21st-century economy. The most recent credible measure of this comes from the Global Innovation Index 2024, produced by the World Intellectual Property Organization, a UN agency. According to the report, which measures entrepreneurship and innovation-driven growth and development across 133 countries, Russia ranks 59th in the world, behind Mauritius, Georgia, and North Macedonia.
This problem probably has many sources – an economy dominated by well-connected elites who don’t need innovation to remain wealthy, a lack of entrepreneurial tradition, and increased investment focus on a war Russia isn’t winning. But the larger challenge facing Russia is the depletion of the generation of young people that might help solve these problems. A report last month from the Center for Strategic and International Studies found “250,000 Russian soldiers have died in Ukraine, with over 950,000 total Russian casualties.” That’s a tremendous blow for Russia’s potentially most productive generation, with no end of the sacrifice in sight. Here’s another: aware of both Russia’s long-term economic problems and the much more urgent problem of avoiding war, nearly one million Russians have fled the country in search of better opportunities since the earliest days of Putin’s invasion of Ukraine.
Russia, a resource-rich country with 11 time zones and an economy about half the size of California’s, still depends almost entirely for its great-power claims on its stockpile of nuclear weapons, the world’s largest. But these are weapons that can only be used at high risk of self-annihilation, and Russia’s sophisticated arsenal of cyber-weapons is useful only for undermining other countries.
Worst of all, it’s hard to imagine any Kremlin change of direction toward creating a more dynamic and innovative Russia anytime soon. The war in Ukraine grinds on. For now, Putin and his enablers seem content to define Russia’s “greatness” solely by its ability to disrupt and punish others.
Demonstrators with US and Ukrainian flags rally near the U.S. Capitol ahead of President Donald Trump’s address to a joint session of Congress in Washington, D.C., USA, on March 4, 2025.
Explainer: Why did the US cut off critical military support for Ukraine this week?
Earlier this week, the US cut shipments of a number of weapons to Ukraine, including Patriot interceptor missiles, a critical part of Kyiv’s air defenses. Here’s a short guide to making sense of why that happened, and how it could affect the course of the Russia-Ukraine war.
What is a Patriot interceptor? It’s one of the world’s most advanced air defenses, able to shoot ballistic missiles out of the sky. The US-made system is sold to nearly 20 countries, and was first given to Ukraine in early 2023. The Patriot’s main theaters of action are Ukraine as well as in the Middle East, where it has protected US forces and Israel from ballistic missiles launched by Iran or Iran-aligned groups.
Why did the US stop sending them to Ukraine? Low stockpiles, evidently. Nearly two years of intense use in both Ukraine and the Middle East have crushed supplies of Patriot missiles, of which only about 500 are made annually, and drawn resources away from other critical weapons systems as well.
After the Trump administration bombed Iran’s nuclear facilities ten days ago, for example, American forces fired the largest salvo of Patriots “in history” to repel Tehran’s (well-telegraphed) retaliatory airstrikes on the US base in Qatar. That may have pushed supplies below critical levels, raising concerns about broader US weapons production capacity.
Still, this is a message to Ukraine, right? Even if concern about scarcity was the primary motivation, US President Donald Trump – who won the election in part on promises to cut aid for Ukraine and force both sides into a “deal” – has clearly hit Kyiv with the short end of the stick here.
It’s worth noting that the decision to cut the shipments to Ukraine reportedly came from Pentagon policy chief Elbridge Colby, a prominent China hawk who sees support for Ukraine as a distraction from challenging Beijing.
And that’s not the only China connection in this story. Amid a growing trade and technology war with Washington, Beijing recently banned the US-bound export of certain minerals that are essential in weapons manufacturing. Among them were gallium, antimony, and germanium, critical components of various weapons and ammunition systems, including the Patriot.
“To me, this is the most interesting untold story,” says Eurasia Group research director Marc Gustafson, a former national security intelligence chief, “mostly because the Pentagon cannot talk about it. China’s bans have been crushing for the US defense industry, particularly regarding the weapons the US has been providing to Ukraine and Israel.”
How badly will this decision hurt Ukraine? Kyiv called the announcement a “total shock.” At a moment when Russia has been launching its most ferocious – and increasingly indiscriminate – aerial assaults of the entire war, losing the Patriots will leave Ukraine’s cities and civilians vastly more exposed to the Kremlin’s missiles and drones.
But the move will have less effect on Kyiv’s primary goal of simply holding off Russia at the front lines, says Alex Brideau, Eurasia Group’s top Ukraine and Russia expert. “It’s not a back breaker,” he says. Still, if the Trump administration cuts to conventional ammunition last for any length of time, Ukraine could be in more serious trouble fast.
People followed by mourners carry the coffins of Azerbaijani brothers Huseyn and Ziyaddin Safarov, who died in Russian police custody, to a cemetery in Hacibedelli, Azerbaijan, on July 1, 2025, in this still image from video.
Hard Numbers: Russia and Azerbaijan tensions rise, Americans hit the road in record numbers, & More
2: Russia-Azerbaijan ties are fraying after the South Caucasus country said two Azeri brothers died last week after being tortured in Russian police custody. In retaliation, Azerbaijan has arrested half a dozen Russian state journalists working in the capital, Baku. The two former-Soviet countries generally get along but have had frictions over Azeri migrant labor in Russia, an Azerbaijan Airlines plane that was shot down over Russian airspace, and Moscow’s backing for Armenia in that country’s decades long conflict with Azerbaijan. The Kremlin said Azerbaijan was being “extremely emotional.”
87.1%: In the latest blow to free movement in Europe, Poland has introduced checks along its borders with Germany and Lithuania, partly a response to the surging number of people seeking first-time asylum in the country – the amount increased 87.1% from 2023 to 2024, more than any other country in Europe. The move is also a tit-for-tat measure, after Berlin introduced its own checks at the Polish-German frontier.
500: The war is going from bad to worse for Ukraine: After Russia launched over 500 drones and other missiles into its cities over the weekend, the United States halted a weapons shipment that was headed to Ukraine. The White House said it was putting its own interests first after lending military support to other countries.
14: With international demand for customer service centers soaring, is Africa ready to answer the call? Experts think so, predicting that the “Business-Process Outsourcing” industry will grow 14% annually on the continent in the coming years, nearly twice the global average. Anglophone African countries are particularly well positioned – the industry is growing nearly 20% per year in Kenya.
72.2 Million: A record 72.2 million Americans are set to travel domestically during the upcoming Fourth of July holiday weekend, according to the AAA, a nationwide motorists’ group. More than 60 million of them will be taking trips by car, driven – as it were – by the lowest summer gas prices since 2021 (and some fight delays).
Russian President Vladimir Putin shakes hands with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi during a meeting at the Kremlin in Moscow, Russia, on June 23, 2025.
What We’re Watching: Iran meets with Putin, NATO gathers at the Hague, Venezuela targets black markets
US bombing of Iran creates Russian conundrum
Russian President Vladimir Putin welcomed Iran’s foreign minister on Monday, offering rhetorical support for Tehran – but it’s unclear what more the Kremlin is willing to do for its last major Middle Eastern ally right now. Putin has cultivated good ties with Iran, but also with Israel. At the same time, with Washington focused on Iran, Russia continued to hammer Kyiv with airstrikes over the weekend. Just days ago, Putin openly declared that the “whole of Ukraine is ours” – does he think the end goal is in sight?
NATO allies meet for an uncomfortable summit
Defense expenditure will be the top agenda item when leaders of 32 countries – all from Europe and North America – gather at the North Atlantic Treaty Organization summit tomorrow in the Hague, Netherlands. Ahead of the gathering, the group agreed to increase its defense-spending target from 2% to 5% of GDP, but granted an exception to Spain due to the prime minister’s political problems at home. Questions about the strength of the alliance are swirling: US President Donald Trump has sparred with his NATO allies for years now, and there’s no sign that the tensions will subside – his decision to bomb Iran undercut European efforts to foster a truce in the Middle East.
Venezuela cracks down on black markets – could it backfire?
The Venezuelan government has arrested dozens of people, including former top officials, in a crackdown on the country’s sprawling black market for dollars. Authorities blame off-the-books dollar traders for destabilizing the exchange rate, but experts say that the government’s economic mismanagement, coupled with US sanctions, means that black markets are the only way to satisfy popular demand for greenbacks. Stamping out those channels could, they warn, make things worse. Venezuela’s inflation rate has already surged past 200% this year.
East and West German citizens celebrate as they climb the Berlin Wall at the Brandenburg Gate after the opening of the East German border was announced, on November 9, 1989.
You had to be there: How our memories shape our politics
– By Willis Sparks
Sometimes I find myself talking with one of my super-smart, well-informed younger acquaintances about some major event from “recent” history. I’ll tell them I remember watching nightly coverage of the fate of Americans held hostage in Tehran by furious Iranian students while I was in high school. Or, sitting on the floor of my grad school apartment, watching live TV coverage of Chinese tanks crushing Chinese protesters, and later of giddy Germans dancing and drinking atop the Berlin Wall. Then there’s the sunny fall morning when a plane struck a tower in lower Manhattan.
Then I remember that the person I’m speaking with wasn’t yet born when most (or any) of these things happened.
Everywhere in the world, succeeding generations have formative experiences that shape their understanding not only of the past but of the present and future. When we think about the politics of various countries today, this “horizon of memory” can help us consider something important about what’s happening and why.
50.5% of Americans are under 40. This means they have little memory of the Cold War, and didn’t grow up with the assumption that America has a “responsibility to lead” on the global stage. If you didn’t experience Cold War hopes and fears firsthand, you might find it odd that US presidents were once called “leader of the free world.”
43.3% of Germans are under 40. I haven’t visited Berlin since there were two of them. I went in the spring of 1990 because I wanted to put my hand on the Wall, to touch history, before it was gone. No German under the age of 40 will remember that surreal historical inflection point or the complex (sometimes contradictory) feelings triggered by Germany’s reunification.
45.9% of Russians and 42.4% of Ukrainians are under 40. No Russian under 40 will remember the Soviet superpower and the daily life that came with it. Even the Mikhail Gorbachev-period that I saw for myself on a visit to Moscow in April 1989 will be largely unfamiliar. Across the border, no Ukrainian under 40 will remember life in an empire ruled from the Kremlin. On both sides of the border, Vladimir Putin’s arguments about Russia’s historic claims to Kyiv land differently with people over 60 than those who are 30.
69.4% of South Africans are under 40. Everyone in that country knows the African National Congress was once the party of liberation. But unless you’re over 40, you likely won’t remember the astonishing day in February 1990 when a smiling Nelson Mandela, imprisoned for 27 years, walked out of his small cell in suit and tie. Nor will you recall the widely shared jolt of raw idealism when he became his country’s president. If you’re under 40, the ANC is the party of power.
64% of Brazilians are under 45. No Brazilian under 45 can remember living under the military dictatorship that was the “Fifth Brazilian Republic,” which lasted from 1964 to 1985. For them, debates over threats to democracy posed by former President Jair Bolsonaro might not resonate as they do for their parents.
78% of Iranians are under 50. No Iranian under 50 will remember life before the revolution that established the Islamic Republic (1979). They know the days of the Shah only through the happy or unhappy memories of their parents and the ideological education they continue to receive.
Without doubt, these events are crucial for all of us. No matter our age today, these are the movements of history on which we build the world around us. But I know my grandparents understood the poverty and fear of the 1930s differently than I ever can. My parents came of age in the peaceful but paranoid 1950s and entered adulthood with the Cuban Missile Crisis.
At 60, I’m blessed to have seen some dramatic historical turning points and to value the perspective they offer. But I’ve also learned that politics, anywhere and everywhere, is impossible to understand without reminders of our horizons of memory — and respect for the assumptions, beliefs, and aspirations of those who’ve engaged the wider world since.
What memories of historical events have shaped your worldview? Let us know here, and if you include your name and where you’re writing from we may include your response in an upcoming edition.Robert F. Kennedy Jr. speaks in the Oval Office of the White House, on the day he is sworn in as secretary of Health and Human Service in Washington, D.C., U.S., February 13, 2025.
Hard Numbers: RFK Jr. cleans house at the CDC, K-Pop’s Chinese comeback, and more
17: In an unprecedented move, US Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. fired all 17 members of the vaccine advisory committee at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention on Monday. While Kennedy defended the “clean sweep” as necessary to restore public trust, experts warn that changes to the panel could threaten public confidence in government health agencies.
$180 million: Chinese tech giant Tencent recently struck a deal with SM Entertainment, one of the leading K-pop production houses, to purchase almost a 10% stake for $180 million. The latest move signals a potential musical thaw in China-South Korea relations: Beijing has imposed an unofficial ban on K-pop ever since Seoul agreed to host US missile defenses in 2016.
2%: Citing the need to reduce reliance on the United States, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney pledged to raise defense expenditures to 2% of the nation’s GDP by the end of the year. The accelerated spending will bring the country in line with NATO benchmarks five years ahead of Carney’s previous target of 2030.
499: Russia launched 499 drone and missile attacks on Kyiv last night, in one of the largest aerial assaults of the three-year-war. The latest attack coincides with a fresh Russian push into eastern Ukraine, and it follows Kyiv’s own large-scale drone attacks on Russian strategic bombers last week.
3%: Less than 3% of the world’s oceans are effectively protected from destructive activities like industrial fishing and deep-sea mining. But with the UN Oceans conference now underway in France, delegates are on track to ratify the High Seas Treaty, a landmark agreement that will allow countries to establish protected areas in biodiverse international waters.
US President Donald Trump speaks as he attends a “Summer Soiree” held on the South Lawn of the White House in Washington, D.C., USA, on June 4, 2025.
Hard Numbers: Trump issues sweeping travel ban, BoC holds rates steady, US funds “self-deportations,” and more...
12: US President Donald Trump has banned visitors to the US from 12 countries: Afghanistan, Myanmar, Chad, the Republic of Congo, Equatorial Guinea, Eritrea, Haiti, Iran, Libya, Somalia, Sudan and Yemen. Another seven countries will face greater restrictions. The ban, which Trump based on national security grounds, takes effect on Monday.
2.75: The Bank of Canada held its key interest rate steady for the second time in a row, leaving it at 2.75% amid uncertainty about the extent and effect of US tariff increases. The bank said it may still cut rates later this year if the economy continues to struggle.
20: US intelligence believes Ukraine’s expansive drone attack on Russian airfields last weekend struck just 20 planes, destroying 10 – half the numbers claimed by Kyiv. Still, the damage was significant and Russia will respond “very strongly,” according to Trump, who spoke with Russian President Vladimir Putin on Wednesday.
$250 million: The US State Department has earmarked $250 million to cover travel expenses for migrants without legal status who chose to “self-deport.” The money has been repurposed from funds previously used to aid refugees.
31: Oilers forward Leon Draisatl scored with 31 seconds left in the first extra period, to give Edmonton a comeback win in game 1 of the Stanley Cup Finals against the defending champ Florida Panthers. As many of our readers will be (painfully) aware, a Canadian team hasn’t won the cup since 1993.