We have updated our Privacy Policy and Terms of Use for Eurasia Group and its affiliates, including GZERO Media, to clarify the types of data we collect, how we collect it, how we use data and with whom we share data. By using our website you consent to our Terms and Conditions and Privacy Policy, including the transfer of your personal data to the United States from your country of residence, and our use of cookies described in our Cookie Policy.
{{ subpage.title }}
Hungary's Prime Minister Viktor Orban and High Representative of the European Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Josep Borrell attend the informal meeting of European heads of state or government, in Granada, Spain October 6, 2023.
Hungary’s rift with the EU: Losing host privileges amid Ukraine controversy
EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell announced on Monday that Hungary, which holds the presidency of the Council of the European Union, has lost the right to host the next meeting of foreign and defense ministers over its stance on the war in Ukraine.
The controversy: Hungary’s Prime Minister Viktor Orban visited Vladimir Putin in Moscow earlier this month and accused the EU of having a "pro-war policy,” spurring an uproar in Brussels.
Hungary is also upset about Ukraine’s decision last month to adopt sanctions blocking the transit of oil to Central Europe by Lukoil, sparking fears of supply shortages in Budapest. Hungary relies on Moscow for 70% of its oil imports — and on Lukoil, Russia’s largest private oil firm, for half that amount.
Budapest responded to Borrell by announcing that it would not refund EU members any of the6.5 billion euros they expected for transferring arms to Ukraine unless Kyiv allows oil shipments from Lukoil to resume to Central Europe.
Why it matters: Since Russia's invasion, member states that gave weapons to Ukraine have been able to ask for compensation for transferring munitions, giving Hungary monetary leverage to get the oil it wants. Hungary and Slovakia asked the European Commission on Monday to mediate with Ukraine, and the issue would go to court unless the EU executive body acts within three days.
A kamikaze drone with a warhead is performing a demonstration flight during the 2nd Drone Racing Tournament by the Federation of Military Technological Sports of Ukraine in Bilohorodka, Kyiv region, north-central Ukraine, on July 21, 2024.
Ukraine aims to produce game-changing drones
Ukrainian startups are rushing to manufacture AI-enabled drones that could give them an edge in the ongoing war with Russia. Swarmer is one such company that’s working on the technology, which allows for automated drone swarms in which humans only intervene to sign off on aerial strikes.
AI-enabled drones could also prevent Russian signal-jamming because they’re not dependent on maintaining connections with human pilots, a problem that increasingly undermines existing drones. By one estimate, Ukrainian drones are only achieving a 30-50% target hit rate currently, but that could improve to 80% with AI, Max Makarchuk of Ukrainian accelerator Brave1 told Reuters.
Ukraine has become a testing ground for AI warfare. While much of that technology comes from US companies, the need for defense technology has also spurred innovation in the domestic Ukrainian market.
NATO is "back to basics" defending Europe from an aggressive Russia
NATO’s renewed strength and commitment to its original mission of countering an aggressive Russia in Europe was on full display at the alliance's 75th-anniversary summit in Washington, DC. On GZERO World, Ian Bremmer sat down with Poland Foreign Minister Radek Sikorski on the sidelines of the summit to discuss the mood among NATO allies and Sikorski’s assessment of the battlefield two and a half years into a bloody, brutal war with no end in sight. Sikorski, whose country shares a 300+ mile border with Ukraine, remains optimistic that Russian defeat is inevitable.
“Putin misjudged us. He thought Ukraine would just cave in and he’d walk into a victory parade,” Sikorski says, “I don’t think in his worst dreams he anticipated we’d be spending hundreds of billions on arms and ammunition and that two years on, he’d still be controlling only 20% of Ukrainian territory.”
Sikorski says that Putin’s war crimes, including attacks on civilian infrastructure and a children’s hospital, have only strengthened Western resolve. He points to the heavy casualties and economic strain Russia faces, predicting a potential collapse of the Russian economy if the war continues. He notes Ukraine’s strategic victories against a much larger army, such as taking out the Russian fleet in the Black Sea without a navy. Sikorski says it’s in NATO’s best interest to keep sending weapons and financial aid to Kyiv because the cost of not sending assistance will ultimately be much higher.
“It's the cheapest and most effective way to signal to Putin, but also to others,” Sikorski insists, “that regaining what you regard as a renegade province is harder than you think."
Watch the full episode: Ukraine can still win this war, says Poland's FM
Season 7 of GZERO World with Ian Bremmer, the award-winning weekly global affairs series, launches nationwide on public television stations (check local listings).
New digital episodes of GZERO World are released every Monday on YouTube. Don''t miss an episode: subscribe to GZERO's YouTube channel and turn on notifications (🔔).
Ukraine can still win this war, says Poland's FM
Do NATO allies have the strength, patience, and unity to support Ukraine for as long as it takes to win the war and defeat Russia? According to Poland’s Foreign Minister, Radek Sikorski, the answer is a resounding yes. On GZERO World, Sikorski sat down with Ian Bremmer on the sidelines of NATO’s 75th-anniversary summit in Washington, DC, to talk about NATO’s strength, Putin’s missteps, and why continuing to send crucial military and economic assistance to Kyiv is a top priority for western allies and the future of NATO.
“Ukraine is heroically defending us before this evil man at a cost to us of less than 1% of our GDP,” Sikorski explains, “We can afford this."
Sikorski says that despite rogue alliance members like Hungary’s Victor Orbán, NATO remains united and is “back to basics” in its original mission of repelling an aggressive Russia. Bremmer and Sikorski also discuss Ukraine’s ongoing challenges, such as ensuring Kyiv can keep sending weapons and new troops to the front lines. Sikorski remains optimistic that Ukraine will prevail and win the war, with the help of Western allies and NATO, particularly Poland, which has taken in almost a million Ukrainian refugees and is helping train troops to NATO standards.
Bremmer pushed Sikorski on his conviction that Ukraine would win, pointing out that a potential second Donald Trump administration could severely limit further military assistance for Kyiv and the sheer amount of force required to get all of Ukraine’s territory back just isn’t available, but Sikorski held firm in his conviction.
“There is never a shortage of pocket Chamberlains willing to give up other people’s land or freedom for their own peace of mind,” Sikorski said, “I think we can win this one.”
Season 7 of GZERO World with Ian Bremmer, the award-winning weekly global affairs series, launches nationwide on public television stations (check local listings).
New digital episodes of GZERO World are released every Monday on YouTube. Don''t miss an episode: subscribe to GZERO's YouTube channel and turn on notifications (🔔).
At NATO Summit, Polish FM Radek Sikorski weighs in on Ukraine war
Listen: Does Ukraine have the strength, stamina, and support to win the war against Russia? On the GZERO World Podcast, Ian Bremmer sat down with Polish Foreign Minister Radek Sikorski on the sidelines of NATO’s 75th-anniversary summit in Washington, DC, for his perspective on the war, European unity, and whether NATO allies can remain united long enough to see Ukraine through to victory. Despite uncertainty about the 2024 US election, Ukraine’s struggle to recruit new troops, and rogue alliance member Hungarian Prime Minister Victor Orbán meeting with Putin, Sikorski is confident Ukraine will ultimately prevail.
Poland is an important part of that defense strategy. The country, which has a 300-mile border with Ukraine, contributes a larger percentage of its GDP to defense spending than any other NATO member, including the US, and has taken in almost a million Ukrainian refugees. Sikorski says that NATO is “back to basics” in its original mission of repelling and defending against an aggressive Russia and that Putin severely misjudged the strength of European and NATO unity in the lead-up to the invasion. Two and a half years into a bloody, brutal war with no end in sight, making sure that unity remains rock solid for as long as Ukraine needs is an urgent priority.
Subscribe to the GZERO World Podcast on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your preferred podcast platform, to receive new episodes as soon as they're published.
NATO Summit: Biden's uncertain future worries US allies
Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week on World In :60.
What are you watching for at the NATO summit?
Well, first and foremost, it's how all of these allies are responding to a very real political crisis in the United States. US, of course, the country they rely on for leading NATO, by far the biggest military power in the world, their principal ally. And they now know that the likelihood that Biden is going to be able to win, is a lot lower than it was the last time they saw him. And they've been seeing him. They saw him at the G7. They saw him in Normandy. They saw him, you know, at the United Nations and some in bunch of bilats and and everyone I've spoken to, says that they're not all confident that he can win. They certainly don't think he can serve out four more years. And they're deeply worried, especially because what a Trump administration might mean for them, with the exception of Viktor Orbán, almost all the NATO allies are very worried. They know that NATO, the EU, the war in Ukraine, all of that much more uncertain if Trump were to come back as president. So that's what I'm watching for and see how that plays out.
How will the UK's new PM, Keir Starmer, lead Britain?
Economically, not all that different. He's focused unusually for labor, focused on a pro-growth policy. He's promised that he isn't going to raise the major taxes like income tax and VAT. And so, he will probably find some more money in things like inheritance tax, he’s going to try to get more private sector investment into the economy. Certainly, wants to have a consistent policy on Ukraine, consistent policy on the United States as the previous conservative governments. Big change will be tried to reestablish stronger relations with the European Union and particularly Ursula von der Leyen, expected to get the nod for another five years running the EU. Keir Starmer spent a lot of personal time working on that over the past months.
As a Russian missile struck a children's hospital in Kyiv is there still no end in sight for the war in Ukraine?
No, no, there's no end in sight. in fact, while that was happening, Narendra Modi, the Indian PM was being quite friendly in Moscow on his visit with Putin. This is a partner of the United States. Putin feels like right now, especially if Trump is elected that his bet on this invasion in Ukraine will work out well for him. And that is not what NATO allies want Putin to be thinking right now. There's been success in getting them a lot of support, the Ukrainians, over the course of the last six months, and certainly they're going to have more money over the next year. But longer term, there's a huge question about how that plays out. And Putin is showing impunity right at the beginning of the NATO summit by sending all those missiles at civilian targets, including sick kids in Ukraine. Not a surprise. but still pretty sickening.
- UK's new PM Starmer aims for closer EU ties ›
- Who is Keir Starmer? ›
- Ukraine will define the future of NATO ›
- How Erdogan won the NATO Summit ›
- Senator Mark Kelly on President Biden's future in the 2024 race and fitness for office - GZERO Media ›
- Ian Explains: Why Biden is the focus of the NATO Summit - GZERO Media ›
- At NATO Summit, Polish FM Radek Sikorski weighs in on Ukraine war - GZERO Media ›
- Ukraine can still win this war, says Poland's FM - GZERO Media ›
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy interacts with soldiers during his visit to a military training area to find out about the training of Ukrainian soldiers on the ?Patriot? anti-aircraft missile system, at an undisclosed location, in Germany, June 11, 2024.
NATO to pledge $43 billion in Ukraine support
As world leaders descend on Washington today for this year’s NATO summit, one number is top of mind: $43 billion. That’s the amount NATO leaders are expected to pledge in Ukraine support at this week’s gathering.
The one-year, $43 billion pledge is less ambitious than NATO’s initial proposal of a multi-year, $100 billion support package, but it couldn’t come at a more critical time for Ukraine. The country has weathered a wave of Russian missile attacks against its cities in recent days – one hit its largest children’s hospital in Kyiv on Monday – killing 36 people and injuring 140 nationwide, adding to the mounting number of civilian casualties since Moscow renewed its air campaign in recent months.
Will more aid be coming? For some leaders at the summit – particularly those engulfed in domestic political turmoil that is limiting their capacity to commit more long-term resources to Ukraine – this is a tougher question. The summit comes on the heels of the far-right’s success in the European Parliamentary elections and France’s snap election – both of which emboldened the Ukraine-skeptic far right – and as President Joe Biden faces pressure to quit the presidential race that he currently looks set to lose to Donald Trump, who has repeatedly pledged to end Ukraine support.
How Ukraine's EU membership would change Europe
Carl Bildt, former prime minister of Sweden and co-chair of the European Council on Foreign Relations, shares his perspective on European politics from Stockholm.
To which extent is the betting scandal overshadowing everything else in the last week of the UK election campaign?
Well, I mean, the Conservative Party has been the one thing after the others. They never really got traction for any of their attempts to have a, from them, positive message in this particular campaign. So it's downhill. I think to be quite honest, the election campaign is now only about the size of the catastrophic defeat for the Conservative Party. And then, of course, the Labor Party is surviving with very high figures without much clarity on exactly what the policies are going to be for the incoming Labor government.
Will the start of the talks about the accession of Ukraine to the European Union impact upon the conduct of the war?
I don't think it will immediately, but we should not underestimate the historic nature of this particular decision. A couple of years ago, the entire thought about Ukraine ever being a member of the European Union was absolutely unthinkable in Brussels among the member states. Now it's become a strategically imperative. And negotiations started this Tuesday with Moldova as well. They will take their time, but it's a sign that the 27 member states of the European Union see the future of Ukraine as an essential part of the future of a democratic Europe. And that is going to have its long term impact.