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Zelensky, Trump, and NATO: A united front on Ukraine?
In this episode of Ian Bremmer’s Quick Take, Ian breaks down Zelensky’s latest trip to Washington, this time joined by a united front of European leaders.
Ian explains why this visit is such a sharp contrast from February, when Zelensky came to the White House alone and left with little to show for it. Today, he arrives alongside key allies from the UK, Germany, France, Finland, Italy, EU and NATO leadership, a powerful symbol that Europe is stepping up.
Europe’s role in supporting Ukraine has shifted dramatically. As Ian notes, European military and financial aid to Kyiv now outpaces that of the United States, giving Europe greater leverage in shaping the war’s future. That includes discussions of “near Article 5” guarantees for Ukraine, signaling long-term security commitments even without NATO membership.
The meeting also highlights the growing importance of maintaining a unified transatlantic stance. While Putin continues to resist any ceasefire, the presence of Europe’s top leaders in Washington underscores that NATO is stronger and more coordinated than it was just months ago.
The key question now: Will Trump remain aligned with Europe’s position — or leave Putin more room to maneuver?
Metropolitan Police Department officers secure 16th Street near the White House, ahead of U.S. President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy meeting to discuss the war in Ukraine, in Washington, D.C., U.S., August 17, 2025.
What We’re Watching: Zelensky’s turn to meet with Trump, Israelis protest against Bibi again, Hong Kong media mogul faces trial
Zelensky heads (back) to the White House
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is back in Washington today, meeting with US President Donald Trump to discuss a potential end to the Russia-Ukraine war and hoping for a better outcome than his last visit to the Oval Office earlier this year. This time he’s bringing friends, European leaders including France’s Emmanuel Macron, Germany’s Friedrich Merz, Italy’s Giorgia Meloni, and the UK’s Keir Starmer, who are offering their support as he attempts to keep his country intact.
The confab follows Trump’s Alaska meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin on Friday, which produced very little by way of a ceasefire in Ukraine. While Zelensky will hope that this visit is more cordial than his last, he is likely still feeling the pressure: Trump reportedly told European leaders yesterday that he supports Putin’s offer to pause fighting if Ukraine relinquishes the Donbas region, even though Russian forces don’t currently hold this land. Zelensky has ruled out such a land swap. The US president also said on social media last night that his Ukrainian counterpart should forget about regaining Crimea or joining NATO.
Is there any timeline for peace here? With the White House now pushing for a peace deal rather than just a ceasefire, don’t expect an imminent pause in fighting, says US Secretary of State Marco Rubio. Washington is nonetheless trying to strike a positive tone, with US special envoy Steve Witkoff declaring on Sunday that Russia had agreed to “robust” security guarantees, including a collective defense of Ukraine by American and European forces should Russia try to invade again.
Anti-Netanyahu protests growing in Israel
Is Israel’s anti-Bibi wing back to pre-October 7 levels? Hundreds of thousands of Israelis took to the streets of Tel Aviv – and other parts of Israel – on Sunday to implore Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to make a deal to return the remaining hostages. The crowds were roughly the same size as the rallies against Netanyahu’s judicial changes in early 2023. The protests came after the Security Cabinet approved a plan to conquer Gaza City two weeks ago, a possible signal that the Knesset is prioritizing rooting out Hamas over returning the hostages.
In latest setback for Hong Kong’s democracy, a media mogul faces trial
Closing arguments are underway in a landmark trial against Hong Kong media mogul Jimmy Lai, one of the city’s most prominent pro-democracy figures. Lai ran the now-shuttered Apple Daily newspaper, which China has criticized for spreading “fake news” and instigating “Hong Kong Independence”. After being held in solitary confinement for around 1,700 days, he is being charged under the controversial National Security Law for conspiring to collude with foreign forces and publishing so-called “seditious” articles. If convicted, the 77-year-old could face a maximum sentence of life imprisonment.Russian President VLADIMIR PUTIN (L) and U.S. President DONALD TRUMP (right) during a bilateral meeting at the Group of 20 (G20) leaders summit in 2019.
Hard Numbers: Ukrainian refugees in Alaska brace for Putin’s arrival, Migrant ship capsizes, No such thing as food poisoning free lunch, and the Kremlin cracks down on messaging platforms
1,000: Around 1,000 Ukrainian refugees in Alaska will be watching closely when Russian President Vladimir Putin arrives on Friday to meet with US President Donald Trump. Those Alaskan refugees are just a small percentage of the 240,000 Ukrainian refugees who came to the US under Biden’s Uniting for Ukraine program, which was suspended after Trump took office earlier this year.
26: At least 26 migrants died and others remain missing after an overloaded boat from Libya capsized off Italy’s Lampedusa. The tragedy comes amid a 16% rise in Mediterranean crossings this year — a deadly reminder that Europe’s migration crisis shows no sign of easing.
360: Over 360 people were left with food poisoning in the Indonesian town of Sragen this week, after eating meals linked to President Prabowo Subianto's ambitious “free school lunch” initiative. The program has been plagued by food safety concerns, with over 1,000 reported cases of food poisoning recorded since its launch in January.
97.3 million: The Kremlin announced that it began restricting calls for some WhatsApp and Telegram users on Wednesday, after the platforms refused to share information with law enforcement. WhatsApp – which has 97.3 million users in Russia – has accused authorities of trying to block citizens rights to secure communications.
Graphic Truth: Who is still buying Russian oil?
US President Donald Trump’s upcoming summit with Putin has cast a spotlight on oil exports, a key source of revenue for Russia’s war in Ukraine. The White House has been threatening Russia with so-called “secondary sanctions”, while punishing buyers — slapping a 50% tariff on India, the largest buyer of Russian crude in 2025 (more on that here). Here’s a look at the biggest buyers of Russian oil via boat in 2025.
South Korea's former first lady Kim Keon Hee, wife of impeached former president Yoon Suk Yeol, arrives at a court to attend a hearing to review her arrest warrant requested by special prosecutors at the Seoul Central District Court, in Seoul, South Korea August 12, 2025.
Hard Numbers: South Korea’s ex-first lady jailed, Mexico transfers cartel members to US, Europe threatens to re-sanction Iran, Poland rearms
800 million: South Korea sent Kim Keon Hee – the 52-year-old wife of former President Yoon Suk Yeol – to solitary confinement on Tuesday, after arresting her for stock manipulation, bribery, and election meddling. Prosecutors accused Kim of making over 800 million won ($580,000) by manipulating the stock price of local BMW dealer, Deutsch Motors. Her husband President Yoon was impeached and detained after he tried to impose martial law in December last year.
26: Mexican authorities extradited 26 suspected cartel members to the US, at the Department of Justice’s request on Tuesday. The move comes as the Trump administration ramps up pressure on Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum to crack down on cartels and drug smuggling. A similar transfer of 29 prisoners was made last February.
3: The E3 – France, Germany, and the United Kingdom – threatened to reimpose previous sanctions on Iran at the end of this month unless Iran agrees to restart negotiations over its nuclear program. US-Iran nuclear talks were previously suspended after Israel and the US struck Iran’s nuclear facilities in June. Analysts observe that Iran faces some tough tradeoffs ahead.
$3.8 billion: Poland – which borders both Russia and Belarus – signed a $3.8 billion deal with the US on Wednesday to modernize its fleet of F-16 fighter jets. The deal is part of a broader rearmament push in the country, which was launched after Russian President Vladimir Putin’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
U.S. President Donald Trump and Russia's President Vladimir Putin talk during the family photo session at the APEC Summit in Danang, Vietnam November 11, 2017.
What We’re Watching: Trump to meet Putin in Alaska, Mali’s military arrests own soldiers, China arrests US-friendly diplomat
Trump, Putin set for Alaska summit — without Ukraine
US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin will meet Friday in Alaska to discuss ending the war in Ukraine — but without Kyiv at the table. Experts say a deal is very unlikely without Ukraine’s direct involvement, warning that Ukraine maintains enough European backing to keep fighting if Zelensky rejects terms. Ukraine’s president has vowed not to give up territory, while Russia’s demands include land concessions, a NATO membership ban for Ukraine, and sanctions relief.
Mali’s ruling military arrests own soldiers amid rising national tensions
Malian authorities arrested dozens of their own soldiers last night over allegations that they were trying to overthrow the West African country’s ruling military leaders – and more arrests are to come. The military junta seized control of Mali, a country of 24 million people famed for its gold exports, via a pair of coups in 2020 and 2021, but is now under some pressure amid reports that an Islamist insurgency is making inroads in northern areas. The junta is also facing vocal criticism from former Prime Minister Moussa Mara, who is consequently now also being detained.
China detains key diplomat in managing US-China ties
China quietly detained senior diplomat Liu Jianchao – seen as a potential candidate for the country’s next foreign minister – in late July. While Chinese authorities have not disclosed the reason for his detention, Liu’s disappearance marks the highest-level probe of a Chinese diplomat since the country’s former foreign minister, Qin Gang, was abruptly removed from his post in 2023. Widely recognized for his expertise on stabilizing US-China ties, Liu met with Eurasia Group’s Ian Bremmer during a trip to New York in 2024. His absence leaves a gap in diplomacy at a time when tensions remain high over trade and technology.U.S. President Donald Trump shakes hands with Russia's President Vladimir Putin during their bilateral meeting at the G20 summit in Hamburg, Germany July 7, 2017.
What We’re Watching: Trump to meet Putin, Indigenous voters in Bolivia shift right, Lula’s anti-Trump strategy goes global
Trump to meet with Putin, proposes trilateral summit with Putin and Zelensky
The Kremlin confirmed that Russian President Vladimir Putin will meet with US President Donald Trump “in the coming days” to discuss the Russia-Ukraine war. The location of the meeting isn’t yet clear. Trump also reportedly told a group of European leaders yesterday he will hold a (so-far unconfirmed) trilateral summit with Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. Trump has been trying without success to get Putin to end the war – threatening further sanctions and secondary tariffs on Russian trade partners. Will his personal powers of persuasion do the trick?
Amid economic turmoil, Indigenous voters in Bolivia shift right
With the Bolivian election just 10 days away, economic grievances are causing Indigenous voters – who represent 62% of the population – to abandon the ruling Movement to Socialism (MAS) party, which has long acted as their standard-bearer and has held power for most of the last 20 years. Natural gas exports have plummeted and inflation has risen to a 40-year high. MAS now trails conservative rivals in polling. Bolivia’s election could be a bellwether for socialist difficulties elsewhere in the region: ruling left-wing movements in Chile and Colombia also face a challenging path to reelection in the next 12 months.
Brazil’s Lula goes global with anti-Trump stance
But if some LatAm leftists are looking cooked, at least one other is cooking. Brazil’s President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva is giving no ground in his clash with Trump, telling Reuters he won’t “humiliate” himself by calling the White House. The US president has threatened Latin America’s largest economy with steep tariffs over the prosecution of right-wing former President Jair Bolsonaro, a Trump pal, on charges he plotted a coup after losing the 2022 election. The aging Lula, now in his third term and debating a fourth, has gotten a bounce at home from telling the gringo president to stuff it. But his recent spate of high-profile international media interviews suggests he’s leaning into the “anti-Trump” role at the global level, too. Narendra Modi, take note?
Activists of All India National Congress burn an effigy of US President Donald Trump and Prime Minister of India Narendra Modi during a protest in Kolkata, India, after the Trump administration announced a 25% tariff on Indian goods, on August 1, 2025.
Why is India rebuffing Trump over Russian oil?
The days of “Howdy, Modi” are over.
Six years on from a gigantic rally in Houston, Texas, where US President Donald Trump and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi held hands, the two are fighting a war of words and tariffs.
The spat began last week when Trump, desperately seeking ways to pressure Russian President Vladimir Putin to end the war in Ukraine (Putin has ignored Trump’s demands to do so for months), slapped tariffs and threatened fines on India, the second-largest purchaser of Russian crude. The idea was to force Delhi to stop buying Russian oil, starving the Kremlin of revenue for its war machine. On Wednesday, Trump upped the ante further, announcing he would double India’s tariff rate to 50% later this month.
But Modi has so far refused to back down – his Foreign Ministry reiterated on Wednesday that Trump’s proposed tariffs are “unjustified and unreasonable.” Adding fuel to the fire, the leader of the world’s largest economy and the head of the world’s most populous nation are still feuding over whether the US helped broker a ceasefire between India and Pakistan in May.
So why is Modi now clashing head on with the man he once called a “true friend”?
Firstly, there’s a monetary component.
Before the full-scale invasion of Ukraine began in 2022, India only sourced 0.2% of its oil from Russia. Now, Moscow is responsible for roughly one third of all Indian oil imports, with Delhi profiting from a discounted price that resulted from sanctions.
“Indian refineries save about $1 billion a month by buying Russian crude,” said Eurasia Group’s South Asia Practice Head Pramit Pal Chaudhuri, a lower amount than previously – the Russian oil discount has diminished in recent weeks – but still significant.
While India requires this fuel for its own energy needs, it also uses the discounted oil to generate major revenues from exporting refined petroleum products in which crude in an input, like diesel and jet fuels. In this trade, Europe is one of India’s largest markets.
“Purchasing crude oil from Russia and refining it for the market (which includes European countries) has allowed India to not only profit from the purchases but maintain its political and economic relationship with Russia,” Manjari Chatterjee Miller, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, told GZERO.
Secondly, India sees this as part of broader trade talks with the US.
The savings that India has made from buying Russian oil have been “useful,” per Chaudhuri, “but losing this would hardly break the bank.” More vital for India are the broader trade talks with Trump, with the next round of negotiations set for Aug. 25.
“There is a belief in New Delhi that Trump’s tariff threats are being used as leverage to extract concessions in order to secure a favourable trade deal with India, reflecting Trump’s proclivity to connect trade and non-trade issues,” said Dr. Chietigj Bajpaee, a South Asia expert at Chatham House.
The US leader has used the Russian oil purchases to justify the pressure on India, but he has another trade interest at hand: he wants Delhi to lower its notoriously high tariffs and grant the US access to its vast agricultural and dairy markets, per Chaudhuri.
Viewing Trump’s moves as a negotiating ploy, Modi sees little interest in backing down.
Thirdly, the Indian public doesn’t want to see Modi surrender to foreign pressure.
Trump’s words have piqued some in India, especially when he suggested that it had a “dead economy.”
“They’ve been seen as a little insulting, to be honest, and it has certainly worsened public opinion [toward Trump],” The Asia Group’s India Practice Chair Ashok Malik, who was a policy adviser in India’s foreign ministry, told GZERO. Modi, he added, now “has to press back.”
This isn’t so much about Trump but rather about rejecting foreign interference, according to Miller. India sees itself as fiercely independent, with a long history of “non-alignment” to any one global pole.
“For India to back down in the face of US tariff threats and essentially downgrade its relationship with Russia will also absolutely not play well among the Indian public,” said Miller. “Modi cannot be seen kowtowing to any US administration.”
Finally, India doesn’t want to lose Russia.
India values its decades-long relationship with Russia, principally because Moscow is a hedge against its chief Asian rival, China. Delhi has long had tensions with Beijing – over border disputes, technological rivalries, and China’s support for Pakistan. While relations with China have thawed a little this year – Modi is visiting China for the first time in seven years at the end of the month – India doesn’t want to anger Russia by bending the knee to Washington, as such a move would risk pushing the Kremlin even closer to Beijing.
“India has a larger interest in keeping links with Russia,” said Chaudhuri. “It believes [in] a combination of ‘respect and money’ that keeps Russia neutral when India and China clash (so far true) and provides other geopolitical benefits.”
The repudiation of US pressure, though, may still have consequences for India’s foreign policy.
“Unless Modi and Trump can reach an agreement,” says Miller “this is an incredibly destabilizing moment for the US-India relationship, and recovery will be difficult.”