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What the Trump-Xi meeting means for US-China relations
In this Quick Take, Ian Bremmer weighs in on the Trump-Xi meeting in South Korea calling it “a truce, not a breakthrough.”
He explains, “It stabilizes the relationship… it brings us closer back to where we were before.” Key agreements include a one-year suspension of recent Chinese restrictions on rare earths, lowered tariffs, and renewed US soybean purchases.
But Ian notes that “there is still very much a movement longer term towards decoupling,” especially around tech.
US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping talk as they leave after a bilateral meeting at Gimhae International Airport, on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit, in Busan, South Korea, on October 30, 2025.
The gaps in the Trump-Xi trade truce
After months of escalating tensions, US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping reached a trade truce at their meeting in South Korea on Thursday.
What was agreed? The two sides each delayed imposing further tariffs, with Trump reducing the overall US tariff rate on China to 45%. China agreed to drop its rare earth export ban, while the US may allow China to purchase advanced semiconductors again. That’s not all: the two countries suspended port fees, China pledged to started buying American soybeans again, good news for American soy farmers who have lost market share to Brazil.
What didn’t the meeting resolve? There was no update on terms for the sale of TikTok to American buyers, and the two sides also didn’t discuss Chinese access to the most powerful US-made microchips. More broadly, Trump and Xi didn’t appear to come to any resolution on Washington’s longer-term issues, such as the US trade deficit with China, concerns about Chinese theft of US intellectual property, or the defense of Taiwan – which the US still supports against Beijing’s claims of sovereignty.
Nuclear tensions start to simmer. The US commander-in-chief announced on Thursday that he had ordered the Pentagon to start testing nuclear weapons “on an equal basis” with Russia and China. The US hasn’t tested a nuke since 1992, and is party to a 1996 treaty with Moscow and Beijing that bars such actions. Testing is unlikely to start soon, in part because of safety concerns but also because most National Nuclear Security Administration are furloughed right now due to the government shutdown.
What about Ukraine? Trump said that Ukraine “came up very strongly” during the meeting with Xi, but did not elaborate, and gave no indication that the two men had discussed the impact of recent US sanctions on Russia’s two largest oil producers. Chinese refineries – the largest buyers of Russian crude – have reportedly begun to explore alternative sources (read more here).
Scoring the showdown: who won?? “Nobody has the upper hand,” said Eurasia Group’s Practice Head for China David Meale. “What both sides have instead is an understanding that each is capable of triggering the other’s intolerable pain points – and therefore a path must be struck between them.”
But, Meale added, “China must feel more satisfied than the US about where it is compared to the beginning of 2025,” in part because Beijing has stood up to Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs and identified a “potent leverage tool through rare earths export controls.”
Overall assessment of the meeting? Trump couldn’t have been more pleased, saying, “On a scale of 1 to 10, the meeting with Xi was 12.”
Meale was a little more equivocal.
“I would put it at a seven out of 10.”
Trump-Xi meeting in South Korea
The talks come after weeks of trade escalation The US expanded export controls, which Beijing saw as a major provocation, and China responded with new rules on licensing agreements for critical minerals, a situation Ian describes as “a bit of miscommunication.”
Ian explains that the confusion was fueled by the fact that “you don’t have trusted regular engagement like you did at the end of the Biden administration,” making it easier for actions and tweets to be misinterpreted.
Still, Ian emphasizes that both sides “want to get to yes.” With the US still developing domestic rare earth production and China facing slowing growth, neither economy can afford further shocks.
US President Donald Trump shakes hands with Vietnam's Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh as East Timor's Prime Minister Kay Rala Xanana Gusmao and Singapore's Prime Minister Lawrence Wong look on at the ASEAN Summit in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, on October 26, 2025.
Trump’s Asian trade blitz sets up sitdown with Xi
US President Donald Trump kicked off his five-day trip to Asia by signing a raft of trade deals on Sunday with Malaysia, Cambodia, Thailand and Vietnam at the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) summit in Kuala Lumpur. Next, Trump heads to Japan to meet newly-elected Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi Tuesday morning, before sitting down with Chinese President Xi Jinping in South Korea on Thursday. What should we make of Trump’s trip so far, and what can we expect in the week to come?
Deals! Deals! Deals! In Kuala Lumpur, Trump reached agreements that promise to eliminate tariffs on roughly 99% of goods with Thailand, reduce Washington’s $123-billion trade deficit with Vietnam, and secure Malaysia’s agreement not to restrict rare-earth exports to the US. Simultaneously, delegates from the US and China met on the sidelines, producing a preliminary framework for a deal that could pause new American tariffs and Chinese export controls, in preparation for Trump’s meeting with Xi on Thursday.
Tuesday with Takaichi. Next, Trump meets Takaichi, who took office last week. The new Japanese PM is known as a China hawk and has promised to ramp up defense spending to 2% of GDP two years ahead of schedule, which should please Trump. But she also must follow through on her predecessor’s pledge to funnel $550 billion worth of investment into the US by 2030. Japan is reportedly prepared to offer sweeteners to Trump in the form of increased purchases of US soybeans and trucks. The two countries are also set to sign an agreement to cooperate on advanced technologies including AI, quantum computing, and nuclear fusion.
The main event: Trump and Xi. The leaders of the world’s two largest economies will seek to ease a deepening trade war without ceding ground on critical priorities.
According to David Meale, Eurasia Group’s Practice Head for China, the two sides are looking to find a path between each other’s pain points. “In particular, critical minerals need to flow from China to keep advanced industries in the US and elsewhere operating, and certain technologies (especially advanced chips) need to be available to China for its development of emerging technology sectors that are central to its economic blueprint going forward.”
While full details of the Oct. 26 framework are not yet available, both sides aim to make progress on key issues. Trump wants better cooperation from Beijing on stopping the export of fentanyl precursors, as well as further commitments from China to buy US goods, especially agricultural products. Xi, meanwhile, wants to head off Trump’s threats to raise tariffs further and impose fresh export controls on US software exports. And both sides seek a “a final deal” on the sale of TikTok’s operations in the US.
Potential pitfalls. Trump has said he will raise the contentious questions of Taiwanese independence — which the US has implicitly supported despite longstanding Chinese objections — and possibly the detention of Hong Kong media mogul and activist Jimmy Lai. Florida Senator Rick Scott published an open letter urging Trump to press Xi for Lai’s release, and a group of Catholic bishops also has urged his freedom. Lai, who converted to Catholicism in 1997, has become a symbol of Hong Kong’s resistance.
Nonetheless, Meale expects that the meeting will strike a positive tone, due to the respect shown by the two leaders to each other. “Chinese officials believe President Trump is someone with which they can chart a course forward,” he says, “because he is pragmatic and demonstrates respect to President Xi.”
Postscript in Pyongyang? Trump mused this morning about the possibility of extending his trip to meet with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un. “I’d love to meet with him, if he’d like to meet,” said Trump. “It’s our last stop, so it’s pretty easy to do.”
Trump, Xi, and the new US–China standoff
US–China relations are once again on edge. After Washington expanded export controls on Chinese tech firms, Beijing struck back with new limits on critical minerals. President Trump responded by threatening 100% tariffs, then quickly walked them back.
Ian Bremmer says neither side wants a full trade war: “Trump doesn’t want to risk inflation or crash the markets, and Xi knows both countries have real leverage over each other.”
As Trump and Xi prepare to meet, from TikTok control to Taiwan tensions, Ian explains why “this relationship is tense, but not heading for a blow-up.”
In this photo illustration, TikTok logo is displayed on a smartphone with the national flags of China and the United States in the background.
What We’re Watching: Trump and Xi’s Friday phone call, EU introduces new Russia sanctions, US plots Afghanistan return
The world’s most powerful pairing talk TikTok and trade
US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping reportedly discussed how they can keep TikTok online in the United States and whether they can ease trade tensions during a phone call Friday morning, their first since June. The topic of trade is a thorny one, most recently due to disputes over Nvidia chip purchases. As for TikTok, the two superpowers were expected to finalize a deal for the sale of the social media app – a consortium of US firms is set to control the company. If the TikTok deal is completed, it’s possible that Trump and Xi could meet in person during the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit being held in South Korea around Halloween.
EU introduces new sanctions on Russia
The European Union rolled out its 19th sanctions package to squeeze Russia’s war chest, pledging to end Russian liquified natural gas (LNG) imports by early 2027, blacklist 560 oil tankers, and target crypto platforms and Chinese firms doing business with Moscow. The package still needs to gain the approval of the 27-member bloc, but is expected to be adopted, and comes as Trump has said he is ready to sanction Russia but only if European nations stop purchasing Russian oil.
Is the US about to return to Afghanistan?
Trump declared Thursday that he wants the US military to regain control of the Bagram air base, a move that would return American troops to Afghanistan four years after withdrawal from the Taliban-held state. The move is all about China: the US has become increasingly wary of Beijing’s growing stockpile of nuclear weapons, and Trump highlighted the base’s proximity to the Asian giant as a reason to take it back. Actually regaining Bagram would require cooperating with the Taliban, a once-hostile foe of Washington. The two sides have been talking, but the noises right now suggest that a return to Bagram won’t be easy.Nvidia founder and CEO Jensen Huang speaks to journalists as he arrives for a press conference at Mandarin Oriental Hotel in Beijing, China, on July 16, 2025.
What We’re Watching: China bans Nvidia chips, Fed holds big meeting, Saudi Arabia pulls plug on music lounges
China bans Nvidia’s last AI chip as its domestic industry catches up
China has ordered major tech firms, including Alibaba and ByteDance, to stop buying Nvidia’s RTX Pro 6000D AI chips, effectively banning them. The move shows Beijing is confident that its own rapidly-advancing domestic producers can now rival Nvidia’s offerings. Curiously, the decision comes just weeks after US President Donald Trump gave Nvidia the green light to sell chips in China in exchange for the US government getting a cut of the revenue. Will Beijing’s new ban stay in place, or is China merely jockeying for leverage ahead of an expected Friday phone call between Trump and President Xi Jinping?
A Fed cut is coming – but what are the caveats?
The US Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates for the first time this year at its meeting today, with investors anticipating a quarter-point cut. A rapidly-cooling labor market is pushing the Fed to cut rates. There are things to watch: first, what are the Fed’s predictions about growth and inflation later this year? Prices jumped last month as the effect of Trump’s tariffs filtered through, strengthening the case against further rate cuts. Second, how will Trump respond? He has threatened Fed Chair Jerome Powell with removal for not lowering rates fast enough, and is embroiled in a legal fight about whether he can fire Fed governor Lisa Cook.
Saudi Arabia’s liberalization streak faces the music
Authorities in Riyadh and Jeddah have shuttered at least two dozen music and performance “lounges” in recent weeks. The venues, which permit shisha smoking and mixing of the sexes, have proliferated since Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman began a sweeping liberalization of the Kingdom’s ultra-strict social rules several years ago. Authorities officially cite public health concerns as the cause for the closures, but the move comes amid a backlash against the venues from conservative Saudis, who view them as vice-promoting nuisances.
U.S. President Donald Trump and Russia's President Vladimir Putin talk during the family photo session at the APEC Summit in Danang, Vietnam November 11, 2017.
What We’re Watching: Trump to meet Putin in Alaska, Mali’s military arrests own soldiers, China arrests US-friendly diplomat
Trump, Putin set for Alaska summit — without Ukraine
US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin will meet Friday in Alaska to discuss ending the war in Ukraine — but without Kyiv at the table. Experts say a deal is very unlikely without Ukraine’s direct involvement, warning that Ukraine maintains enough European backing to keep fighting if Zelensky rejects terms. Ukraine’s president has vowed not to give up territory, while Russia’s demands include land concessions, a NATO membership ban for Ukraine, and sanctions relief.
Mali’s ruling military arrests own soldiers amid rising national tensions
Malian authorities arrested dozens of their own soldiers last night over allegations that they were trying to overthrow the West African country’s ruling military leaders – and more arrests are to come. The military junta seized control of Mali, a country of 24 million people famed for its gold exports, via a pair of coups in 2020 and 2021, but is now under some pressure amid reports that an Islamist insurgency is making inroads in northern areas. The junta is also facing vocal criticism from former Prime Minister Moussa Mara, who is consequently now also being detained.