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Biden tightens China’s access to chips one last time
Throughout Joe Biden’s presidency, the Commerce Department has gradually tightened its chokehold on China’s access to semiconductors needed to access, train, and build artificial intelligence. On Dec. 2, Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo announced what she told reporters amounted to the “strongest controls ever” meant to restrict China’s access to AI for military applications. Today, China responded with its own new restrictions, sending a strong signal to the incoming US president.
The new US controls announced Monday, the third order in as many years, apply to 24 types of semiconductor manufacturing equipment, three types of software tools, and high-bandwidth memory, or HBM, an interface often used in producing AI chips. The department also added 140 Chinese companies to its Entity List, which requires regulatory approval should a US company wish to sell to a member of the list. “By adding key semiconductor fabrication facilities, equipment manufacturers, and investment companies to the Entity List, we are directly impeding the PRC’s military modernization, WMD programs, and ability to repress human rights,” said Matthew Axelrod, assistant secretary for export enforcement at the Commerce Department.
In response, on Dec. 3, China banned shipments of certain materials using gallium, germanium, and antimony to the US, as well as super-hard materials such as diamonds. These items can be used both for military and semiconductor applications. “China firmly opposes the US overstretching the concept of national security, abuse of export control measures, and illegal unilateral sanctions and long-arm jurisdiction against Chinese companies,” said Lin Jian, a Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson.
Jacob Feldgoise, an analyst at Georgetown University’s Center for Security and Emerging Technology, said the new US order plugged holes in the previous year’s rules. It requires a license for many more exported tools, focuses on high-bandwidth memory “because HBM is used by nearly all of the most capable AI chips” and strengthens the US’s grasp beyond its borders. “Notably, this set of controls is newly extraterritorial: It will impose licensing requirements on certain foreign-produced tools so long as they contain US technology,” Feldgoise said.
Xiaomeng Lu, director of Eurasia Group's geo-technology practice, noted that the US excluded the Chinese semiconductor company ChangXin Memory Technologies from the Entity List to appease the Japanese government. CXMT has been buying materials from Japanese suppliers to make its memory chips. “With the Trump administration on its way, they are expected to take a more unilateral approach and will be less likely to make concessions per requests of allies,” she said.
Jeremy Mark, a nonresident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council's GeoEconomics Center, said it’s difficult to judge how significant these new rules are because of the looming change of guard in the White House. Had they come ahead of the transition to a Kamala Harris administration, “they would continue making life complicated for Chinese semiconductor companies and US companies that rely on the China market for a significant portion of their sales.” However, Mark said that Donald Trump could strengthen or weaken export controls when he takes office, so it’s “impossible to say” what the legacy of this final move will be.
For Biden, it marks the end of an era of success: While his restrictions on China could have been tighter or less porous, he leaves office with China still searching for AI breakthroughs. The US, at least under Biden’s watch, is still on top.
But China’s next-day retaliation shows that it is ready to play hardball ahead of the incoming Trump administration. Beijing understands that diplomacy alone might not do the trick, and that to succeed in getting America to the bargaining table it needs to safeguard its own crucial resources. “This is a step up in China’s reaction to US technology sanctions,” Lu said. “China is very frustrated with the lack of communication channels with the incoming administration. They are trying to send a shot across the bow to get attention from the Trump team.”
Ian Bremmer: AI and clean energy are reshaping the US-China rivalry
As these technological races accelerate, it remains clear that the US and China will continue to shape the future in distinct and often opposing ways, leaving other nations to navigate the complex terrain between these global giants.
Click to watch Ian Bremmer’s analysis and his full 2024 "State of the World" speech.
A global leadership void and ongoing wars
Ian Bremmer's Quick Take: Hi, everybody, Ian Bremmer here, and a Quick Take to kick off your week. I am here in Tokyo, Japan. Just got back from Beijing. Being in this part of the world has me thinking a little bit about the state of our world and leadership, or should I say, the lack thereof. Those of you following me know I talk about a G-zero world, not a G-7, not a G-20, a place where we lack global leadership, and that has been so clear, thinking about the wars that continue, between Israel and Palestine, and now Lebanon, and more broadly in the Middle East, and between Russia and Ukraine, and increasingly NATO in Europe.
I think about the fact that all over the world, everyone wants these wars to be over. They're causing enormous amounts of suffering, displacement of human beings, massive war crimes, but they persist. It's worth thinking about what that means in terms of leadership because when we talk about the Middle East, and Israel-Palestine in particular, the United States is the most powerful ally of Israel, overwhelmingly in terms of its political and diplomatic support, its economic support, technological support, its military aid and training and intelligence. And yet, over the last year, the United States has had virtually no influence in the ability to contain, constrain, or end this war, irrespective of all the suffering.
You can complain about the United States on that with good reason, but then you look at Russia-Ukraine, and you see that over the last three years, China's been, by far, the most powerful friend and supporter of Russia, massive amounts of trade only expanding and dual-use technologies and diplomatic support. Yet, despite that, China has been unwilling to use any influence on Russia to try to bring the war to the end.
Now, to be clear, both the United States and China say all the right things. In Beijing, I was hearing from the leaders that they're friends with the Ukrainians and they maintain stable relations, and of course they want the war over, and they respect Ukrainian territorial integrity. And of course, the Americans support a two-state solution for the Palestinians and want to ensure that they get humanitarian aid and want to see a ceasefire happen, but I mean, the revealed preferences of both of these countries is their willingness to do anything about it is virtually zero. The Chinese don't care about the Ukrainians ultimately. That's what we're learning over the last few years. The Americans don't care about the Palestinians ultimately. That's what we've learned over the last year.
Absent leadership from the two most powerful countries in the world, where do you think we're going to get geopolitically? The answer is, to a much more dangerous place. That's the concern. I don't see that changing, particularly whether we have a Harris or a Trump presidency. I don't see that changing whether we have a Xi or a Xi presidency in China. It's not like they're making any real choices going forward. But look, maybe I'll be surprised. And certainly, it would be nice if no matter who wins, this was a topic of conversation between the Americans and the Chinese. That, "Hey, China. If you'd be willing to do a little bit more with Russia, we'd be willing to do a little bit more with Israel." I mean, frankly, at the end of the day, that's the kind of horse-trading I think we could really use diplomatically. Right now, that's a conversation that hasn't happened yet, but maybe it will.
That's it for me, and I'll talk to y'all real soon.
A BYD EV Dolphin Mini is displayed as the Chinese electric-vehicle producer announces the launch of the low-cost EV in Mexico City, Mexico, on Feb. 28, 2024.
Biden wants to ban Chinese software from American roads
The measure is framed as a national security move: Washington is worried that Chinese software in EVs could enable Beijing to suck up data on US drivers and critical infrastructure or to manipulate vehicles on the road.
But it’s also a trade move: Retrofitting Chinese vehicles with approved tech would be impractical, so the proposal would effectively ban Chinese-made EVs altogether. So far, there are very few on American roads, but US industry is worried about competition from Beijing, which has already made huge inroads in Europe, stoking trade tensions there.
Last month, Washington slapped a 100% tariff on Chinese-made EVs and components.
What happens now? A 30-day public review period will be followed by the Commerce Department writing up the final text, hoping to have it implemented by the White House before Biden leaves office.
The shortcut: The economic and technology competition between the US and China is increasingly blurring the lines between national security and commerce.
Mark Kelly on the new space race
On GZERO World, Ian Bremmer delves into the modern space race and its role as a critical domain for global security with Arizona Senator and former astronaut Mark Kelly. They discuss China’s growing ambitions, the future of the International Space Station, and the evolving role of private companies like SpaceX in shaping US space policy.
In a wide-ranging conversation, Kelly is clear-eyed about China’s ambitious space goals, including lunar missions and collaboration with Russia to build a lunar base, sparking concerns over the militarization of space. “They [China] just returned a sample from the backside of the moon. Nobody’s done that.” Senator Kelly also discusses the International Space Station’s eventual decommissioning and the importance of international cooperation, particularly with allies such as Europe, Canada, and Japan. Yet, tensions, especially with adversaries like China and Russia, loom large in the space domain.
“We’ve got to make sure that we can counter their capability, but also… prevent them from using space as a domain in any future conflict,” Kelly tells Bremmer. A key concern is how space assets, such as spy satellites and anti-satellite weapons, could be used in future conflicts. The conversation also touches on private-sector involvement in space, with companies like SpaceX playing pivotal roles in both space exploration and geopolitical issues, including the role of Starlink in the war in Ukraine. “I would hope that US companies… align with us and our values,” Kelly tells Bremmer.
GZERO World with Ian Bremmer, the award-winning weekly global affairs series, airs nationwide on US public television stations (check local listings).
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The new space race: Sen. Mark Kelly on China's bold ambitions, America's policy & Russian threat
Listen: On this episode of the GZERO World podcast, Ian Bremmer takes a close look at the evolving US-China space race and its implications for global security, competition, and international collaboration. He is joined by Arizona Senator Mark Kelly, a former Navy pilot and NASA astronaut who offers firsthand insights into the future of US space policy.
Kelly also sheds light on China's ambitious space goals, including lunar missions and partnerships with Russia, raising concerns about the militarization of space. He emphasizes the need for the US to counter these developments and maintain space as a peaceful domain. Kelly discusses the eventual decommissioning of the International Space Station and highlights the importance of collaboration with allies like Europe, Canada, and Japan. The episode also covers the growing role of private companies like SpaceX, which are not only shaping space exploration but also playing crucial roles in geopolitical conflicts, including the war in Ukraine, through initiatives like Starlink.
Subscribe to the GZERO World Podcast on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, or your preferred podcast platform, to receive new episodes as soon as they're published.Chinese and U.S. flags flutter outside the building of an American company in Beijing, China, January 21, 2021.
American and Chinese companies set new standards
It’s not every day that companies from the United States and China work together. But on Sept. 6, a new coalition of big tech companies representing both global powers announced that they have joined forces to develop new security standards for large language models.
The companies include China’s Ant Group, Tencent, and Baidu along with US firms Microsoft, Google, and Meta. The effort is part of the World Digital Technology Academy, a Geneva-based group established in 2023 under a United Nations framework. The efforts aim to reduce risks throughout the AI supply chain, such as protecting against data leaks and model tampering.
The collaboration represents a rare collaboration between American and Chinese companies at a time when their respective governments are battling over AI dominance and control while systematically blocking one another’s companies from accessing key technologies. While it’s unlikely that this partnership will ease tensions between the American and Chinese governments, perhaps it’ll help forge a way for future collaboration between their industries.
Political mini crossword: Beijing Briefing
Calling all China nerds! US national security advisor Jake Sullivan is visiting Beijing tomorrow. Do you think you are up to date on the state of US-China affairs? Play this crossword puzzle to prove it.