Trending Now
We have updated our Privacy Policy and Terms of Use for Eurasia Group and its affiliates, including GZERO Media, to clarify the types of data we collect, how we collect it, how we use data and with whom we share data. By using our website you consent to our Terms and Conditions and Privacy Policy, including the transfer of your personal data to the United States from your country of residence, and our use of cookies described in our Cookie Policy.
{{ subpage.title }}
U.S. President Donald Trump listens as Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi speaks during a joint press conference at the White House in Washington, D.C., U.S., February 13, 2025.
What We’re Watching: Trump changes tune again on Russia, China helps Myanmar’s junta gain ground, Brazil’s Lula announces reelection bid
Trump sanctions Russia’s biggest oil firms
Missing a date has consequences: days after canceling a second meeting this year with Russian President Vladimir Putin, US President Donald Trump imposed sanctions on Russia’s two largest oil companies, Rosneft and Lukoil, a sign of Washington’s growing frustration with the Kremlin. Europe piled on, imposing its 19th set of sanctions on Moscow. Oil prices jumped in response. In a sign that India, the second-biggest purchaser of Russian oil, could abide by these sanctions, Delhi’s top refiner is looking at halting purchases from Moscow. Further, The Wall Street Journal reported that the White House has authorized Ukraine to strike deep inside Russia. Trump denied the report, but a Russian munitions factory some 1,000 miles from the Ukrainian border was hit last night, killing at least 10.
Myanmar’s junta gains ground with China’s help
Myanmar’s military junta has regained key territory in Shan State, reversing major losses from last year’s insurgent offensives in the country’s brutal four-year civil war. Since the 2021 coup that ousted the previous pro-democracy leader, ethnic armies and local militias have battled to topple military rule. The army has now retaken strategically important towns in the Shan State using new Chinese-supplied drones, airpower, and 60,000 conscripts. China’s growing support has tilted the balance decisively toward the junta, even as large parts of Myanmar remain contested and devastated by civil war.
Brazil’s president to seek a fourth term
Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, known as Lula, announced on Thursday that he will run for reelection in 2026, seeking a fourth non-consecutive term at 79 years old. Lula’s popularity has been on the rise in reaction to Trump’s tariffs and pressure to drop the case against former President Jair Bolsonaro – who was convicted of inciting a coup. Lula is sharpening his rich-versus-poor rhetoric as he begins his campaign around the country, calling for higher taxes on the wealthy, fintechs, and gambling companies. It is unclear who will oppose him, but Bolsonaro is likely to serve as a kingmaker in choosing the next leader of his right-wing movement.
In this photo illustration, TikTok logo is displayed on a smartphone with the national flags of China and the United States in the background.
What We’re Watching: Trump and Xi’s Friday phone call, EU introduces new Russia sanctions, US plots Afghanistan return
The world’s most powerful pairing talk TikTok and trade
US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping reportedly discussed how they can keep TikTok online in the United States and whether they can ease trade tensions during a phone call Friday morning, their first since June. The topic of trade is a thorny one, most recently due to disputes over Nvidia chip purchases. As for TikTok, the two superpowers were expected to finalize a deal for the sale of the social media app – a consortium of US firms is set to control the company. If the TikTok deal is completed, it’s possible that Trump and Xi could meet in person during the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit being held in South Korea around Halloween.
EU introduces new sanctions on Russia
The European Union rolled out its 19th sanctions package to squeeze Russia’s war chest, pledging to end Russian liquified natural gas (LNG) imports by early 2027, blacklist 560 oil tankers, and target crypto platforms and Chinese firms doing business with Moscow. The package still needs to gain the approval of the 27-member bloc, but is expected to be adopted, and comes as Trump has said he is ready to sanction Russia but only if European nations stop purchasing Russian oil.
Is the US about to return to Afghanistan?
Trump declared Thursday that he wants the US military to regain control of the Bagram air base, a move that would return American troops to Afghanistan four years after withdrawal from the Taliban-held state. The move is all about China: the US has become increasingly wary of Beijing’s growing stockpile of nuclear weapons, and Trump highlighted the base’s proximity to the Asian giant as a reason to take it back. Actually regaining Bagram would require cooperating with the Taliban, a once-hostile foe of Washington. The two sides have been talking, but the noises right now suggest that a return to Bagram won’t be easy.Sheikh Joaan bin Hamad Al Thani, President of the Qatar Olympic Committee, Mikhail Akimenko of Authorised Neutral Athlete (ANA), Mutaz Essa Barshim of Qatar and Ilya Ivanyuk of ANA at the medal ceremony.
Hard Numbers: Prize money for Olympic gold, Trump tried to tank surveillance bill, EU court annuls Russian oligarch sanctions, US approves missile sale for Ukraine
702: On Wednesday, House Speaker Mike Johnson faced significant opposition from Republicans influenced by former President Donald Trump's call to reject an extension of Section 702, a controversial measure in the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act that allows for warrantless surveillance of foreigners abroad. Despite Trump's misleading association of Section 702 with his campaign's surveillance, his stance has made the bill's fate uncertain, with potential Republican defections and unanimous Democratic opposition due to inclusion of an unrelated condemnation of Joe Biden’s border policies in the bill.
1,700: The EU General Court on Wednesday annulled sanctions against two Russian oligarchs, citing insufficient evidence of their involvement in undermining Ukraine's sovereignty. Despite the ruling, they remain sanctioned pending a separate appeal. The decision is a setback for the EU's sanctions regime and could provide a precedent for the 1,700 other Russian oligarchs currently under sanction.
138 million: While a larger US assistance package remains stalled in Congress, the State Department on Tuesday approved a $138 million emergency sale of air defense equipment to Ukraine to bolster its defenses amid ongoing Russian assaults. This move – driven by an "emergency" need for the Hawk Phase III missile system – comes as Ukraine faces intensified air attacks and is desperate for more allied support.The 465-foot superyacht Nord, a luxury yacht worth over half a billion U.S. dollars, reportedly owned by the sanctioned Russian oligarch Alexei Mordashov i
Hard Numbers: US seeks Russian assets for Ukraine, Iranian funds refrozen, King Charles acknowledges Kenya colonization, France bans pro-Palestine demonstrations
300 billion: US officials are pushing allies to put their frozen Russian reserves toward helping Ukraine. Western governments have an estimated $300 billion of frozen Kremlin reserves across a multitude of bank accounts, but most of them are in Europe, where central bankers have expressed fears that seizing the money could pose major legal and financial risks. But with Republicans pushing to limit Ukraine aid, the US is looking for alternatives.
6 billion: Speaking of frozen assets … The US and Qatari governments have taken back their agreement to unfreeze $6 billion of Iranian assets for humanitarian aid because of Iran’s backing of Hamas. The agreement was a part of a deal to free detained Americans, and the Biden administration has faced unfounded allegations that the funds could have fueled the attacks. As of now, Washington sees no evidence that Iran was directly involved in the attacks, but Tehran has supported the terrorist organization with weapons and training.
60: King Charles announced he will visit Kenya this month to commemorate the 60th anniversary of its independence from Great Britain and to acknowledge the painful history of British colonial rule. The state visit comes at the invitation of Kenya’s President William Ruto and will be Charles’ first visit to a commonwealth country since he became king.
100: France, home to Europe’s largest Jewish population and second-largest Muslim one, banned all pro-Palestinian demonstrations after recording 100 antisemitic acts since Saturday. Ten French citizens died in the Hamas attack, and 17 others are missing, including four children. Security has also been put in place around the homes of French Jewish politicians to deter attacks.
Larry Summers explains the banking crisis
On GZERO World, Ian Bremmer and former US Treasury Secretary Larry Summers discuss a range of topics, including the global banking system, the impact of AI on the labor market, and a controversial solution for rebuilding Ukraine.
Summers, an expert on inflation, provides valuable insights into recent bank failures that have caused concern among investors worldwide. He discusses whether the current situation constitutes a banking crisis, explores the role that inflation is playing in contributing to the banking problems, and makes predictions about the duration of the current financial turmoil.
He and Bremmer also touch on the impact of AI on the labor market, with Summers warning of significant changes that will cause profound shifts in traditional hierarchies and ways of thinking, which may make influential groups uneasy.
Summers also offers a provocative solution for rebuilding Ukraine: seizing frozen Russian assets.
Note: this interview was featured on an episode of GZERO World with Ian Bremmer on April 3, 2023: The banking crisis, AI & Ukraine: Larry Summers weighs in
Getty Images/Chip Somodevilla
Podcast: Larry Summers breaks down the banking crisis
Listen: On the GZERO World podcast, Ian Bremmer and former US Treasury Secretary Larry Summers discuss the recent bank failures that are disrupting global markets and worrying investors worldwide. They discuss whether the current situation constitutes a banking crisis and explore the role of inflation in contributing to the problems. As an inflation expert, Summers provides valuable insights and predictions on the duration of the financial turmoil.
Additionally, he warns of the significant changes that AI could bring to traditional hierarchies and proposes a controversial solution for rebuilding Ukraine: seizing frozen Russian assets.
Subscribe to the GZERO World Podcast on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, or your preferred podcast platform, to receive new episodes as soon as they're published.- Podcast: Inflation nation: How Larry Summers predicted skyrocketing prices in the US ›
- Podcast: Making sense of global inflation, looming recession, & economists who disagree ›
- Podcast: China's economic head start & a world accelerating into recession ›
- Podcast: The COVID-damaged global economy surprised Adam Tooze ›
- Ian Explains: Banking turmoil and the panic pandemic - GZERO Media ›
A view shows graves of killed Ukrainian defenders, amid Russia's attack on Ukraine, at a cemetery in Kharkiv, Ukraine January 31, 2023.
Hard Numbers … after a year of war in Ukraine
300,000: Human losses on both sides of the conflict are mounting (and disputed), but there have been a whopping 300,000 military and civilian deaths on both sides, according to high-end estimates.
2.1 & 0.3: Russia’s economy contracted by just 2.1% last year, far less than predicted, due to continued sales of its discounted crude oil and adaptability. The IMF predicts a 0.3% growth rate for Russia this year thanks to high export prices.
51,000 vs. 40,600: Having seized roughly 51,000 square miles of Ukrainian land by late March last year, Russia has since lost roughly one-fifth of that. The Kremlin now controls about 40,600 square miles (17% of Ukraine), entirely in the south and east.
18 & 60: Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has decimated the country economically, with roughly 60% of Ukrainians now living below the poverty line, compared to 18% before the war.
35 & 139 billion: Ukraine’s GDP has diminished by 35%, and Russian targeted attacks are slamming the country’s infrastructure, having caused US$139 billion worth of damage (so far). Well over a third of the country is now dependent on humanitarian aid to live.
Up to 1 million: A reported 8,087,952 Ukrainian refugees are now spread across Europe, with close to 5 million seeking temporary asylum. Millions more are displaced within Ukraine. An estimated 500,000 to 1 million Russians have fled their homeland, driven by economic unrest, politics, and military mobilization.
Ian Bremmer: The West is united on Russian energy, the rest of the world is not
With talk at this year’s Munich Security Conference from most of the world’s most powerful countries about decoupling from Russian energy, it can be easy to forget that most of the world’s population has other priorities.
“What we're seeing is that a majority of the world's economic strength and certainly military strength really wants to put Russia back in a box, but a majority of the world's population does not. And that is because of what's happened with the pandemic. It's what happened with climate change”, said Eurasia Group President Ian Bremmer during a Global Stage livestream conversation hosted by GZERO in partnership with Microsoft.
Europe, he explains, can better afford to move away from Russian sources of energy than developing countries, who are increasingly feeling distant and fragmented from the West, and richer countries shouldn’t forget that.
Watch the full Global Stage Livestream conversation here: Is there a path ahead for peace in Ukraine?