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Ian Bremmer: The West is united on Russian energy, the rest of the world is not
With talk at this year’s Munich Security Conference from most of the world’s most powerful countries about decoupling from Russian energy, it can be easy to forget that most of the world’s population has other priorities.
“What we're seeing is that a majority of the world's economic strength and certainly military strength really wants to put Russia back in a box, but a majority of the world's population does not. And that is because of what's happened with the pandemic. It's what happened with climate change”, said Eurasia Group President Ian Bremmer during a Global Stage livestream conversation hosted by GZERO in partnership with Microsoft.
Europe, he explains, can better afford to move away from Russian sources of energy than developing countries, who are increasingly feeling distant and fragmented from the West, and richer countries shouldn’t forget that.
Watch the full Global Stage Livestream conversation here: Is there a path ahead for peace in Ukraine?
Can surveillance prevent the next pandemic?
While the Munich Security Conference was dominated by discussions about the ongoing war in Ukraine, there were many other critical issues on the table as the world faces converging crises. One of them was health security, and how nations can apply the lessons of the COVID pandemic to future public health threats.
On the sidelines of the 2023 MSC, GZERO’s Tony Maciulis spoke to Francis deSouza, CEO of the biotech company Illumina, about how countries and regions can better communicate to stop the spread of new pathogens and the road ahead for the rapidly growing genomics industry.
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Tech innovation can outpace cyber threats, says Microsoft's Brad Smith
AI is having a giant moment of growth, as is the ability for actors to use it nefariously. In an uncertain global environment, how can the US outpace challenges in cyberspace?
“One of the things that I find just fascinating about the development of AI…it's actually an area where if you take the problems seriously and you have an engineering team that's willing and prepared to work on a moment's notice, you can correct the problems far faster than you can solve most problems in life,” said Microsoft Vice Chair and President Brad Smith at this year’s Munich Security Conference during aGlobal Stage livestream conversation, hosted by GZERO in partnership with Microsoft.
The early leads in the race for the future of AI, he adds, are in the US private sector and the Chinese public sector, and the world’s democracies are setting the right role model in creating international norms for the responsible use of AI, but must stay the course in doing so.
Watch the full Global Stage conversation from Munich here: Is there a path ahead for peace in Ukraine?
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We should not underestimate Putin, says NATO’s Benedetta Berti
The war in Ukraine may not have gone the way Vladimir Putin expected, but his objectives remain the same.
“I don’t think we underestimated Russia’s strategy and what they were planning in Ukraine … If anything, maybe at the beginning we had overestimated the Russians’ military capabilities,” says Benedetta Berti, NATO’s policy planning chief, during a Global Stage livestream conversation hosted by GZERO in partnership with Microsoft at the Munich Security Conference.
NATO has strengthened its defense posture while reinforcing its deterrence, and Ukrainians have broken the myth of Russian invincibility. But, she adds, it would be a strategic mistake to underestimate what Russia can do in the future.
Watch the full Global Stage Livestream conversation here: Is there a path ahead for peace in Ukraine?
Mongolia: the democracy between Russia and China
After a peaceful revolution in 1990, Mongolia established a democracy that remains strong today. Freedom House, a nonprofit devoted to promoting democracy globally, rates Mongolia as “free,” with high marks for both political rights and civil liberties.
Tsakhiagiin Elbegdorj is one of the founders of Mongolia’s democracy and served as both President and Prime Minister of his nation. As he continues to advocate for freedom globally, he’s speaking out about the importance of supporting Ukraine’s struggle against Russian aggression.
At the Munich Security Conference, President Elbegdorj sat down with GZERO’s Tony Maciulis to talk about a country sandwiched between Russia and China, what Vladimir Putin is really like, and this vulnerable moment for democracy.
More about our Global Stage interviews.
Ukraine dominates the dialogue in Munich
While there are many security risks and global challenges on the agenda at this year’s Munich Security Conference, none have dominated the dialogue more than Ukraine as the war there enters a second year with no clear end in sight. From mainstage speeches to a giant banner hanging across the street from the conference venue that reads, “Ukraine Is You,” unity among Western allies is the clear message.
While there’s truth to that overall, there are many nuances and differences in approach from country to country—Estonia, for example, taking a much more absolutist stance against Vladimir Putin even as France’s President Emmanuel Macron begins to talk about Europe’s relationship with Russia after the war is over.
GZERO Media is on the ground in Munich to cover the conference at this critical moment for Europe and the world, and Chief Content Officer Tony Maciulis caught up with our colleague Mij Rahman, Managing Director for Europe at Eurasia Group, to break down some of the big stories of the day.
The two talked about European unity, the ongoing impact of Brexit, and who, if anyone, is emerging as a clear leader for the EU overall.
Many knew Putin wasn't bluffing, but not how far he'd go, says International Crisis Group’s Comfort Ero
People rightfully focus on conflict prevention and deterrence, but global policy lagged behind when it came to preparing for the Russian invasion.
“What surprises me is that no actor says they’re surprised by what happened. You ask yourself, what about the steps that ought to have been taken?” says Comfort Ero, president and CEO of the International Crisis Group, during a Global Stage livestream conversation hosted by GZERO in partnership with Microsoft at the Munich Security Conference.
Some argue that the original sin was perhaps not dealing with the crises in Georgia and Crimea, she adds. Moving forward, she says, NATO and the West must focus on having anticipatory policies that prevent military aggression.
Watch the full Global Stage livestream conversation “Live from Munich: Ukraine and the Global Turning Point.”
Is there a path ahead for peace in Ukraine?
As we approach the grim first anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine – which came on the heels of last year’s Munich Security Conference – GZERO is back in Germany, discussing the past year since the war began, what’s likely to come next, and what it means for the world.
Benedetta Berti, NATO’s head of policy planning in the office of the Secretary-General; Ian Bremmer, president and founder of Eurasia Group and GZERO Media; Comfort Ero, president and CEO of Crisis Group; and Brad Smith, vice chair and president of Microsoft, sat down with CNN’s Nic Robertson at the Munich Security Conference for a Global Stage livestream, hosted by GZERO Media in partnership with Microsoft.
Taking stock of the past 12 months, the panelists discussed Western unity and Ukraine’s resolve while warning against underestimating Russia’s possible next moves. The West gets a top grade for its response to the invasion, Ian Bremmer says. But much depends on sustained unity and keeping war fatigue at bay. “I think it's always more difficult for a democratically elected government to sustain that kind of political support and public support,” says Brad Smith.
While many overestimated Russia’s military prowess and underestimated Ukraine’s agility to embrace technology and stay the course, Benedetta Berti warns that it ”would be a real strategic mistake if we started to underestimate what Russia could do in the future.” Could spillover be a threat to Europe and the world?
Bremmer notes that the West cannot afford to assume that the Russians are incapable of doing anything to NATO simply because they haven’t done so yet. “Russia is becoming the most powerful rogue state in history, and we have seen that a much less powerful Iran has caused an enormous amount of problems in their backyard.” What form could Russian aggression toward NATO take? “I think that we should recognize,” says Bremmer, “that we will start to see asymmetric attacks from Russia against NATO.”
Comfort Ero, meanwhile, was careful to point to the global ramifications of the war, noting how it has disrupted food supplies while distracting many from other major crises. “Everybody's got Ukraine in their headline, but the most deadly violent conflict last year was not Ukraine,” she says. “It was Ethiopia.”
The panelists also reflected on the power of technology, addressing whether it is making the world a safer or more dangerous place. Smith noted how quickly and flexibly Ukraine has used technology to its advantage – both on the battlefield and particularly “President Zelensky's ability to use [it] to really rally the support of the world.”
But can tech make the world a safe place? How will the US-China AI race impact its development and use?
Bremmer says that technology has certainly made the world wealthier, making people safer by pulling them from poverty. But while 8 billion people worldwide are better off because of it, “they feel like technology is becoming more dangerous” because of its speed of development.
As for the future of Ukraine, the biggest worry, says Bremmer, is that we’re “not seeing even a remote possibility of an exit ramp, a remote possibility of negotiations getting started.” This means the West has no idea of what things might look like after the war.
“I've never seen the fog of war feel this thick.”