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Analysis
Demonstrators carry the dead body of a man killed during a protest a day after a general election marred by violent demonstrations over the exclusion of two leading opposition candidates at the Namanga One-Post Border crossing point between Kenya and Tanzania, as seen from Namanga, Kenya October 30, 2025.
That last move echoes a troubling trend of governments across Africa cutting internet access during moments of political uncertainty. Between 2016 and 2023, human rights groups claim African governments have shut down the internet 59 times during protests, 25 times during elections, 11 times during conflict and six times during military coups. In 2024, digital-rights monitors counted a record 21 shutdowns across 15 African countries, an all-time high, suggesting “digital darkness” is becoming a routine means of maintaining power.
How do shutdowns happen? Regulators order telecom companies to either pull the plug on internet access entirely, to throttle bandwidth to make services unusable, or to block specific platforms like X, WhatsApp, or TikTok. Officials generally justify the moves as necessary to curb “misinformation” or “incitement,” but the real goal is generally to limit opponents’ ability to mobilize supporters, share information, and alert the press to what is happening.
Why was there a shutdown in Tanzania? It’s a go-to move for the government there. Authorities first shut down the web during the 2020 election, blocking access to specific social media platforms. In August 2024, X was blocked and Tanzanian leadership ordered police to clamp down on youth organizing over Zoom; in October 2025 they cut access to Tik Tok Live and Instagram Live. Crackdowns have frequently coincided with the detention of opposition leaders.
Where else is this happening in Africa? Research has shown that the longer a leader is in power, the more likely they are to deploy digital repression. Africa has some of the longest-serving leaders on the planet, but also the youngest electorates, making for an increasingly volatile combination.
Internet access was curtailed this year in Congo, led by 79-year old President Denis Sassou Nguesso for 40 years, as the country grappled with a deepening civil war. Uganda’s president Yoweri Museveni – who is seeking to extend his 40 year term in next year’s elections – shut down the country’s entire internet during the 2021 election and has kept Facebook blocked ever since. Cameroonian president Paul Biya was just reelected for an eighth term, serving since 1982, and famously cut off internet service for 230 days in 2017, and multiple shorter times thereafter, including during the recent vote.
Conflict also serves as a pretext. The government of Ethiopia shut down internet and phone services in the province of Tigray for more than two years during its brutal civil war with separatist forces there. That effectively cut some 6 million people off from each other and from the outside world.
Do shutdowns work? While shutdowns can dampen protests for hours or days, they sometimes backfire long-term by galvanizing the opposition. Africa’s surge in shutdowns has been met by backlash from groups like the African Commission on Human and Peoples’ Rights and the #KeepItOn coalition, who shine a light on abuses.
How are people coping? Youth networks, opposition parties, and journalists are adapting in a variety of ways. Activists pre-plan offline “low-tech” communications, such as community radio; newsrooms prepare mirrored sites and satellite uplinks; election observers switch to analog reporting. Some users get around the blocks with Virtual Private Networks (VPNs) and mesh networks, while others “sideload” apps on Android devices from unofficial app stores.
In Tanzania, local outlets and digital-rights groups also flagged restrictions in real time, and international coalitions have been pressing the government – so far unsuccessfully – to restore service. But with digital connectivity the new currency of politics, it’s hard to see long-time African rulers giving up control just yet.
US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping talk as they leave after a bilateral meeting at Gimhae International Airport, on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit, in Busan, South Korea, on October 30, 2025.
After months of escalating tensions, US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping reached a trade truce at their meeting in South Korea on Thursday.
What was agreed? The two sides each delayed imposing further tariffs, with Trump reducing the overall US tariff rate on China to 45%. China agreed to drop its rare earth export ban, while the US may allow China to purchase advanced semiconductors again. That’s not all: the two countries suspended port fees, China pledged to started buying American soybeans again, good news for American soy farmers who have lost market share to Brazil.
What didn’t the meeting resolve? There was no update on terms for the sale of TikTok to American buyers, and the two sides also didn’t discuss Chinese access to the most powerful US-made microchips. More broadly, Trump and Xi didn’t appear to come to any resolution on Washington’s longer-term issues, such as the US trade deficit with China, concerns about Chinese theft of US intellectual property, or the defense of Taiwan – which the US still supports against Beijing’s claims of sovereignty.
Nuclear tensions start to simmer. The US commander-in-chief announced on Thursday that he had ordered the Pentagon to start testing nuclear weapons “on an equal basis” with Russia and China. The US hasn’t tested a nuke since 1992, and is party to a 1996 treaty with Moscow and Beijing that bars such actions. Testing is unlikely to start soon, in part because of safety concerns but also because most National Nuclear Security Administration are furloughed right now due to the government shutdown.
What about Ukraine? Trump said that Ukraine “came up very strongly” during the meeting with Xi, but did not elaborate, and gave no indication that the two men had discussed the impact of recent US sanctions on Russia’s two largest oil producers. Chinese refineries – the largest buyers of Russian crude – have reportedly begun to explore alternative sources (read more here).
Scoring the showdown: who won?? “Nobody has the upper hand,” said Eurasia Group’s Practice Head for China David Meale. “What both sides have instead is an understanding that each is capable of triggering the other’s intolerable pain points – and therefore a path must be struck between them.”
But, Meale added, “China must feel more satisfied than the US about where it is compared to the beginning of 2025,” in part because Beijing has stood up to Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs and identified a “potent leverage tool through rare earths export controls.”
Overall assessment of the meeting? Trump couldn’t have been more pleased, saying, “On a scale of 1 to 10, the meeting with Xi was 12.”
Meale was a little more equivocal.
“I would put it at a seven out of 10.”
Last week, I wrote about the political revolution that President Donald Trump has launched in the United States and how it has made America a fundamentally unreliable player on the world stage.
This week, I’ll take on another question I detailed during my recent “State of the World” speech in Tokyo: How can/should the rest of the world respond to this new reality?
***
When dealing with a leader of the world’s most powerful country who ignores counsel and acts on impulse, most governments will have to avoid actions that make Trump-unfriendly headlines. (Looking at you, Doug Ford.)
This is the logic that led Canada to surrender on its plan to impose a digital services tax earlier this year, and why a TV ad aired by the province of Ontario using clips of Ronald Reagan to criticize Trump’s tariffs was hastily taken down when the US president got angry. It’s why Japan was wise to make unilateral concessions on Nippon Steel and automotive tariffs. To safeguard their national interests, if a fight can be avoided, other governments should avoid it – by whatever means necessary. Let the spotlight of Trump administration hostility fall on others.
Many US allies have moved to proactively limit damage from any future fight with the White House. The United Kingdom, the European Union, and a number of Southeast Asian countries have offered non-reciprocal trade deals. See also Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Argentina, and El Salvador.
From governments that have much more bargaining leverage – like China, Russia, and India – we’ve seen that standing up for yourself and a willingness to absorb punches can create needed space. That strategy won’t work for everyone. Japan, South Korea, Mexico, Brazil and many others need to stay on a positive track with Washington.
But all countries, whatever their current relationship with the White House, will need to build their own long-term capacity and reinforce their own stability – to become more economically dynamic and competitive for the future.
That’s China’s current approach. Beijing has also doubled down on its support for existing international institutions, in part because it calculates that an American step-back will create new opportunities to change them.
In short, when faced with an America that’s become a more unreliable player on the global stage, one that can’t be counted on to safeguard allies who have underinvested in their own security, the right strategy is defense first, hedge second.
Just as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine persuaded Europeans to quickly reduce their own dependence on Russian energy, European governments want to avoid finding themselves at the mercy of shifting policies from Washington.
America’s traditional allies will have to regain their competitive position. That means a focus on growth, robust industrial policy, streamlined regulatory and bureaucratic authorities, and expansive investment in new technologies. They must attract and invest in entrepreneurship, assert more diplomatic leadership internationally, and accept responsibilities in building multilateral architecture.
Models already exist. In particular, there is Mario Draghi’s crucial competitiveness report for the European Union. On a smaller scale, there is Mark Carney’s thoughtfully crafted “Canada Strong” plan. Most every global leader should be thinking in these terms.
It’s easier said than done. The near-term politics of making these transformations is daunting. The EU is not a single state, and Europe's need for consensus rulemaking and pushback from more euro-skeptic governments (which could arrive even in France and Germany in the next election cycle) pose an enormous challenge.
There will be opposition from the fast-rising Reform Party in Britain and some provincial governments in Canada.
But once all these economic, political, security, and diplomatic investments are made, America’s unreliability, in the years well beyond Trump, will matter less.
As for hedging…
- Europe has committed to spend much more money on its own defense and to address the security coordination problems NATO will suffer without clear US leadership.
- The Saudis have signed a nuclear deal with Pakistan to hedge against any future security neglect from Washington, and there’s already more defense and intelligence-sharing among Gulf States.
- India’s Narendra Modi is working hard to stabilize his country’s relations with China and to temper their rivalry.
- The EU has finalized three free trade agreements — with South American bloc Mercosur, Mexico and Indonesia — and is working toward an agreement with India.
- Mercosur sealed a free trade deal with the European Free Trade Area, four European countries outside the EU. It has restarted negotiations with Canada.
In short, the defense and hedging strategies are well underway and likely to succeed to varying degrees in various places over time – though we should be more skeptical about even a medium-term turnaround in competitiveness.
We’re now living in a post-American order, with no one willing or able to fill the vacuum. China has its own problems and isn’t about to bite off more than it can chew. Which means a deeper G-Zero world, leading to more conflict, inflicting more damage, and lasting longer.
This trajectory isn’t sustainable. During the Cold War, it took the Cuban Missile Crisis to convince leaders that armed confrontation would be catastrophic – and that new communication channels and agreements were essential. We don't know what form “the crisis we need” to build a new order will take this time. But it's coming.
Until then? The old rules don’t apply anymore, and new rules haven’t been written yet. We must brace for sustained turbulence.
A Venezuelan Navy patrol boat sails off the Caribbean coast, amid heightened tensions with the U.S., in Puerto Cabello, Venezuela, October 24, 2025.
On Monday, the US struck four boats off the Pacific coast of Central America, killing 14 people who the White House said were smuggling narcotics. Over the past few weeks, the Trump Administration has killed at least 57 alleged drug smugglers in the waters of the Caribbean and Eastern Pacific, as part of a widening campaign against drug cartels that the White House says are linked to the Venezuelan government. Critics say these are extrajudicial killings, the Administration says they are permitted under anti-terrorism laws.
But is the US gearing up for strikes within Venezuela itself? Senator Lindsey Graham told CBS’s Face the Nation on Sunday that President Donald Trump plans to brief members of Congress when he gets back from Asia about “future potential military operations against Venezuela and Colombia” and “a potential expanding from the sea to the land.” Trump himself has suggested as much, telling reporters earlier this month that “We are certainly looking at land now, because we’ve got the sea very well under control.”
There’s reason to wonder. Over the past few weeks, the US has moved thousands of troops and military equipment into the region, including a state of the art aircraft carrier. It marks the largest buildup of US forces there at least since the 1990 invasion of Panamá to oust estranged former CIA partner Manuel Noriega.
The US military is currently conducting military drills with Trinidad and Tobago — just 7 miles off Venezuela’s shores. The extent of the build-up suggests that the real target may be Venezuela’s leader Nicolás Maduro, experts say.
“I think this is about domestic policy objectives – migration and stemming drug flows – and a desire to remove Maduro from power,” says Eurasia Group Latin America expert Risa Grais-Targow.
There are a few ways Maduro could be pushed out. The US could try to peel off his inner circle or top generals with pressure, sanctions, and quiet offers of exile. It could back a covert operation or special forces strike to take him down directly — or, less likely, use limited airstrikes to cripple his military’s capabilities before taking out Maduro himself. One option that doesn’t seem to be on the table: the US launching a sustained ground invasion of Venezuela, a potential quagmire which could fly in the face of Trump’s stated opposition for “forever wars.” Still critics say even more limited operations would require Congressional approval and oversight.
What happens if Maduro is removed from power? While a Venezuelan pro-democracy movement – led by Maria Corina Machado – waits in the wings and is advocating for Trump to oust Maduro, Grais-Targow cautions that any post-Maduro transition would be “chaotic.” “The ruling party and armed forces control all relevant institutions,” she says, “and any eventual competitive elections or handover of power would require difficult negotiations around power-sharing, along with economic and amnesty guarantees.”
Russian President Vladimir Putin chairs a meeting with members of the Security Council via video link at the Kremlin in Moscow, Russia, on October 24, 2025.
It’s been a tumultuous couple of weeks for US-Russia relations.
Two weeks ago, US President Donald Trump was considering handing Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine, which would allow Kyiv to strike deep into Russian territory. But, following a phone call with Russian President Vladimir Putin on Oct. 16, Trump decided to chop the Tomahawk plan, and announced a meeting with his Russian counterpart.
That quickly fell apart, though – reportedly because negotiations over a ceasefire deal had stalled – and by Oct. 23, an agitated Trump announced that he was sanctioning Russia’s two largest oil companies, Rosneft and Lukoil, which together produce half of Russia’s oil. This was a step that even the Biden administration refused to take, largely over fears that oil prices would spike, driving up inflation.
Now, combined with Biden-era sanctions on Gazpromneft and Surgutneftegaz, the US has blacklisted Moscow’s four largest crude producers.
There’s just one problem, per Eurasia Group’s Russia expert Alex Brideau.
“The new US sanctions are most likely insufficient to change Putin’s strategy in the war against Ukraine,” said Brideau. “The full effect will depend, in part, on whether the largest importers of Russian oil, India and China, halt these purchases.”
Will China and India halt purchases? Here’s the thing: they just might. This would be devastating for the Kremlin: the two countries combined currently purchase more than 80% of Russia’s crude exports, per the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air. What’s more, the oil & gas sector is vital to Russia’s government purse – it’s responsible for 30-50% of total budget revenues.
Even absent any pressure from the government to comply or ignore the sanctions, Chinese refiners are already looking elsewhere, per Eurasia Group’s Practice Head for China David Meale.
“I think there is no chance that China will push its firms to comply with the sanctions for the purposes of improving bilateral relations,” said Meale. “However, their major oil companies have already curtailed purchases due to how the threat of sanctions affects their other international interactions.”
India, meanwhile, has until now resisted Trump’s direct pressure to stop buying Russian oil, in part because it wants Moscow to stay neutral if China-India tensions flare up again. With the new US sanctions in place, though, it could be a different story.
“The sanctions on the two largest Russian oil firms have certainly changed the situation,” said Ashok Malik, partner and chair of The Asia Group’s India practice. “I would expect Russian oil purchases to decline significantly — at least in the medium run — should these measures be carried through.”
It seems the process has already begun: Reuters reported last week that Indian oil refiners are poised to halt purchases of Russian oil.
“A near-total halt in Russian crude imports by late November appears inevitable – not out of political alignment, but because continuing would endanger India’s economy itself,” Ajay Srivastava, founder of the Delhi-based Global Trade Research Initiative, told GZERO.
In a sign that the sanctions are already hurting Russian crude firms, Lukoil unveiled a plan yesterday to sell off its foreign assets.
So it looks like Moscow is in trouble? There are signs that the attritional war is starting to take a toll on the Russian economy, which had been remarkably resilient over the first three years of the war. The International Monetary Fund forecast that the Russian economy will expand by less than 1% this year – it grew over 4% in each of the last two years. Inflation has remained stubbornly high at around 8%. And Russians are becoming less optimistic about whether economic conditions are improving in their area, per a Gallup poll.
“Over a longer period of time,” said Brideau, “these trade-offs may become too difficult for the state to manage.”
A stubborn (Moscow) mule. If there is one last reason that Russia will continue this war, it’s Putin. The Russian leader has displayed an extraordinarily high threshold for pain on the battlefield: his army has suffered huge losses and is advancing in Ukraine at a snail’s pace, yet he has shown no willingness to compromise on his main war objectives. He believes that Ukraine belongs to Russia, and that NATO shouldn’t be continuing to expand along Russia’s border.
If this high pain threshold applies to economic suffering, too, then these sanctions won’t stop the war any time soon.
“Politically, Putin remains strongly committed to his objectives in Ukraine,” said Brideau. “He is willing to risk the long-term health of the Russian economy to pursue these goals.”
US President Donald Trump shakes hands with Vietnam's Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh as East Timor's Prime Minister Kay Rala Xanana Gusmao and Singapore's Prime Minister Lawrence Wong look on at the ASEAN Summit in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, on October 26, 2025.
US President Donald Trump kicked off his five-day trip to Asia by signing a raft of trade deals on Sunday with Malaysia, Cambodia, Thailand and Vietnam at the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) summit in Kuala Lumpur. Next, Trump heads to Japan to meet newly-elected Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi Tuesday morning, before sitting down with Chinese President Xi Jinping in South Korea on Thursday. What should we make of Trump’s trip so far, and what can we expect in the week to come?
Deals! Deals! Deals! In Kuala Lumpur, Trump reached agreements that promise to eliminate tariffs on roughly 99% of goods with Thailand, reduce Washington’s $123-billion trade deficit with Vietnam, and secure Malaysia’s agreement not to restrict rare-earth exports to the US. Simultaneously, delegates from the US and China met on the sidelines, producing a preliminary framework for a deal that could pause new American tariffs and Chinese export controls, in preparation for Trump’s meeting with Xi on Thursday.
Tuesday with Takaichi. Next, Trump meets Takaichi, who took office last week. The new Japanese PM is known as a China hawk and has promised to ramp up defense spending to 2% of GDP two years ahead of schedule, which should please Trump. But she also must follow through on her predecessor’s pledge to funnel $550 billion worth of investment into the US by 2030. Japan is reportedly prepared to offer sweeteners to Trump in the form of increased purchases of US soybeans and trucks. The two countries are also set to sign an agreement to cooperate on advanced technologies including AI, quantum computing, and nuclear fusion.
The main event: Trump and Xi. The leaders of the world’s two largest economies will seek to ease a deepening trade war without ceding ground on critical priorities.
According to David Meale, Eurasia Group’s Practice Head for China, the two sides are looking to find a path between each other’s pain points. “In particular, critical minerals need to flow from China to keep advanced industries in the US and elsewhere operating, and certain technologies (especially advanced chips) need to be available to China for its development of emerging technology sectors that are central to its economic blueprint going forward.”
While full details of the Oct. 26 framework are not yet available, both sides aim to make progress on key issues. Trump wants better cooperation from Beijing on stopping the export of fentanyl precursors, as well as further commitments from China to buy US goods, especially agricultural products. Xi, meanwhile, wants to head off Trump’s threats to raise tariffs further and impose fresh export controls on US software exports. And both sides seek a “a final deal” on the sale of TikTok’s operations in the US.
Potential pitfalls. Trump has said he will raise the contentious questions of Taiwanese independence — which the US has implicitly supported despite longstanding Chinese objections — and possibly the detention of Hong Kong media mogul and activist Jimmy Lai. Florida Senator Rick Scott published an open letter urging Trump to press Xi for Lai’s release, and a group of Catholic bishops also has urged his freedom. Lai, who converted to Catholicism in 1997, has become a symbol of Hong Kong’s resistance.
Nonetheless, Meale expects that the meeting will strike a positive tone, due to the respect shown by the two leaders to each other. “Chinese officials believe President Trump is someone with which they can chart a course forward,” he says, “because he is pragmatic and demonstrates respect to President Xi.”
Postscript in Pyongyang? Trump mused this morning about the possibility of extending his trip to meet with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un. “I’d love to meet with him, if he’d like to meet,” said Trump. “It’s our last stop, so it’s pretty easy to do.”As we race toward the end of 2025, voters in over a dozen countries will head to the polls for elections that have major implications for their populations and political movements globally.
Today, GZERO is highlighting three of them that stand out to us – in the United States, Argentina, and Côte d’Ivoire. The issues each of those electorates face are different, but the results could provide insight into the future of larger political trends.
Democrats seek a glimmer of hope
The United States doesn’t have a nationwide election this fall, but it has plenty of local ones to pique the interest of political nerds. These include the mayoral election in New York City, gubernatorial races in New Jersey and Virginia, and state Supreme Court races in the purple state of Pennsylvania – Election Day for all them is Nov. 4.
“Democrats probably should win all those races for this election to be to feel like a success for them,” University of Virginia politics expert Kyle Kondik told GZERO.
Though these races are local, they have national implications, as the Democratic Party desperately seeks to build some momentum after a tough year. The party is struggling for leadership, its messaging has been muddled, and it hasn’t been able to even temper – let alone stop – President Donald Trump’s policy agenda.
One Democrat who has brought some life to the party this year is Zohran Mamdani, the nominee for New York City mayor. A democratic socialist, Mamdani rode the waves of a successful social-media campaign to defeat former New York Governor Andrew Cuomo in the primary, and is now all-but-certain to become the mayor. This doesn’t mean his message, though, will work elsewhere in the country.
“There may be something appealing about Mamdani’s campaigning style – the short videos, that sort of thing.” said Kondik. “But I don’t think staking out left-wing positions is going to suddenly be seen as a winning strategy.”
Can Milei clean up the midterm mess?
Argentine President Javier Milei’s libertarian movement is on the line as the South American country heads to the polls on Sunday in legislative elections.
The economist-turned-politician, replete with his mutton chops and sometimes a chainsaw, has become a figurehead for a global movement to slash the size of government via “shock therapy.” However, he’s faced some roadblocks recently: unemployment is increasing, the economy is slowing, and a corruption scandal sent government bonds tumbling over the summer. It didn’t help matters that his foreign minister resigned on Wednesday. This has all overshadowed the significant progress that Milei has made in cutting the country’s notoriously high inflation rate.
Though Milei isn’t personally on the ballot this year, an ally from afar has tried to throw his party a lifeline: US President Donald Trump pledged to hand Argentina a $20-billion bailout. The money comes with conditions, though. “If he doesn’t win, we’re gone,” Trump said. “If he loses, we are not going to be generous with Argentina.”
So what’s Milei’s target? Milei’s Libertad Avanza party is still nascent – it was only formed in 2021 – so it has only scant representation in the National Congress. What’s more, only a third of senators are up for reelection, and half the Chamber of Deputies. The goal for Milei, then, is simply to nab a third of all seats in the lower chamber, which will be enough to give him veto power.
Will it happen? “The expectation a couple of months ago was the government was expecting to have a very strong performance in the election and win at least a third of the seats.” Juan Cruz Díaz, the managing director of Buenos Aires-based advisory firm Cefeidas Group, told GZERO. “Now the situation is more challenging.”
Another old leader set to retain power on world’s youngest continent
Côte d’Ivoire on Africa’s West Coast is known for many things: it is the world’s largest cocoa producer, it has large gold reserves – particularly important with gold prices sky high – and it has had its share of world-class soccer players, most notably Didier Drogba.
One thing that the country isn’t known for, at least recently, is democracy. The country hasn’t had a peaceful transition of power in decades: two of the last three presidents were forcibly deposed, and the other was assassinated two years after leaving office. Meanwhile the incumbent leader Alassane Ouattara, who is 83 and seeking a fourth term, has clamped down on opposition leaders and restricted mass gatherings on the grounds that it could cause yet another coup.
What’s more, the opposition is fragmented, according to Eurasia Group’s West Africa analyst Jeanne Ramier.
“Nobody has successfully managed to mobilize against the fourth term,” said Ramier. “Whereas, on the contrary, many people are actually advocating for Ouattara because he’s got a good record, because they want stability and peace.”
Ouattara’s impending victory also highlights a trend across Africa: There are several elderly leaders across the continent, and many are set to stay in charge. It’s a remarkable trend on what is the youngest continent in the world – by some distance – and one that is fueling concerns about the state of democracy across it.