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US-China relationship at its most stable in years as Yellen visits
Ian Bremmer's Quick Take: A Quick Take to kick off your week. Want to talk about the most important geopolitical relationship in the world, the US and China. Janet Yellen, the secretary of treasury, back over to China yet again, both to help ensure that the relationship is reasonably stable, also to deliver tough messages in places where she feels like that is required, the Biden administration feels it's required. And it's been a useful trip.
On the one hand, the United States, like the Europeans, delivering tough messages on Chinese dumping, on overproduction and low-cost goods going into the American and European markets, because of massive state subsidy, into key sectors. Particular concern on transition energy. On the one hand, great to see more effort to reduce carbon emissions, both in China and globally, and as the prices come down, that's a good thing. On the other hand, really hurting less competitive corporates that don't have that level of state subsidy in the United States and Europe. Tesla was really fast out of the box, hasn't got much support from the White House, but that's been the American champion to the extent that there is one. On the other hand, when you talk about other corporations, American and European, nowhere close to the Chinese. The hundreds of Chinese EV companies that are less expensive, they are higher quality, they are manufacturing at scale, and people can buy them all over the world. So, that is creating a lot of friction.
On the one hand, Americans and Europeans that are saying, “We want to move towards net-zero faster.” On the other hand, if the Chinese government is leaning into that and US and European jobs are at stake, and production is at stake, then they don't feel so comfortable with it. So, that's the primary area of tension between Yellen and her counterparts in China. Having said all of that, the meetings have been open, they've been pretty frank, they've been reasonably friendly, certainly not hostile, and Chinese state media and state influence media has been both very detailed and very fair in their coverage of Yellen, as they have been every high level meeting the Americans have had with the Chinese for months now. And that clearly has been a shift from the top in China, saying, “We don't want you to be picking on the Americans. We want you to show that this is a relationship that is treated with respect, and we want you to cover it reasonably accurately.” That's a big plus.
You know, you go to Russia, you go to Iran, you read their media and I try to follow their media pretty closely, it is overwhelmingly anti-US, anti-Western, strongly propaganda in orientation. That used to be more the case in China. It is not today. In fact, in many ways, I would argue, presently, US media covering US officials, certainly much more hostile, towards China, than the Chinese are towards the United States right now. That's very unusual in this relationship. And in large part it's because the Chinese economy continues to underperform and they're trying to get more American, more Western investment in, they're trying to have less pressure for capital flight out.
There are plenty of other areas where there are big tensions. In particular, we see that with semiconductors, with TSMC now getting, speaking of industrial policy, billions and billions in American government loans, as well as direct grants, subsidies, to expand production in the United States, which TSMC is now planning on doing. The Americans want 20% of semiconductor production globally in the United States by 2030. It is plausible that they get there. A big fact is at TSMC, the world's leading producer of semiconductors, now saying they are going to put their highest end production in part in the United States. That's a big win for the Americans.
It also, over time, makes Taiwan less critically important. That's also true for mainland China, as the Chinese will have to build their own. Finally, when you talk about Taiwan, you talk about the upcoming, in a month, inauguration and an incoming Chinese, Taiwanese president, who is has no engagement with mainland China as former President Ma is meeting with XI Jinping this week. Those things are not connected. They are very far apart. So former president of Taiwan, that China says, “We can work with that guy, we can't work with the incoming guy,” potential for greater tensions going up.
Also, especially around the South China Sea, in the Philippines, their president coming to the United States this week, He’s going to meet with Biden in addition to Japanese PM Kishida and it's going to be more coordinated and deepening defense relations as the Chinese are pushing the Philippines pretty hard in contested waters that the international legal community has ruled on in favor of the Philippines and the Western position. The Chinese say, “Sorry, we don't accept that outcome.”
So, plenty of areas where there is fighting, plenty of areas with this tension, but lots of communication at the high level and generally speaking, and Yellen said this, but I completely agree, the relationship is more stable than we've seen it, certainly in the first three years of the Biden administration and the four proceeding of Donald Trump.
That's it for me. And I'll talk to you all r- Can Biden-Xi meeting ease tensions? ›
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U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen meets Chinese Premier Li Qiang at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing, China, April 7, 2024.
EVs, economics, and a warning from Yellen in China
During her weekend visit to Beijing and Guangzhou, US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen emphasized that the US-China relationship is on a "more stable footing" – but there are still imbalances to address.
Chief among them: China's industrial overcapacity and its effects on the global economy. Yellen and Chinese Vice Premier He Lifengagreed to kickstart formal talks to address China’s growing overproduction of electric vehicles and solar panels, which the US says is distorting global markets and undercutting American jobs.
“We can only make progress if we directly and openly communicate with one another,” Yellen said. Chinese Premier Li Qiang called for a market-oriented view of production capacity, including cooperation in the green and low-carbon energy transition and a potential partnership to address environmental challenges.
Tough talk on Russia: Yellen dropped the diplomatic gloves when it came to Beijing’s economic and military partnership with Russia.
"We've been clear with China that we see Russia as gaining support from goods that Chinese firms are supplying to Russia," she declared, warning of "significant consequences" for any material support lent to Russia’s war efforts against Ukraine.
We’ll see if this changes China’s tune like it did after Russia’s invasion in 2022, when US officials say their strong warnings prompted Beijing to walk back plans to provide military equipment to Moscow.Janet Yellen
Janet Yellen is (probably) tripping
But we do have questions. Will the mushrooms Yellen consumed change her US recession forecast? Do these mushrooms allow people to see the data on China’s youth unemployment rate, which has abruptly become invisible to the rest of us? And finally, in the interest of journalistic due diligence, where can we get some of these mushrooms?
US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen looks on during a meeting with Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng at the Diaoyutai State Guesthouse in Beijing.
Beijing sees “rainbows” after Yellen visit
US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen wrapped up her high-profile trip to Beijing on Sunday with a message for China: we aren’t out to undermine China. Measures to curb US investment in China will be carefully targeted to prevent Americans from supporting the Chinese military, she said, but they do not seek to damage China's economy more broadly.
Beijing seemed to take Yellen's word for it — she is regarded by Beijing as a pragmatist one can do business with, as opposed to ideological China hawks in the Biden administration and Congress. (After holding talks with the top US economic policy official, Chinese Premier Li Qiang commented that now “China-US ties can see rainbows after a round of wind and rain.”)
Still, there are plenty of clouds lingering for the world’s two largest economies. The US still seeks to limit China's access to advanced semiconductors, to which Beijing might respond by making it harder for America to get rare-earth metals needed to make electric vehicles.
During her visit, Yellen also turned heads by publicly referring to Pan Gongsheng, recently named Communist Party chief of the People's Bank of China, as the head or acting head of the institution, which serves as China's central bank. Pan has yet to get the official nod, but read here to learn more about his likely appointment at a crucial moment for the Chinese economy.
Prigozhin and Wagner still a danger to Putin
Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week on World In :60.
What do you make of Putin's speech addressing Prigozhin's mutiny?
Well, I mean, he didn't mention Prigozhin by name. Prigozhin is still, at least as of now, we think, a free man. But he has said that the people responsible are going to be held accountable. And that kind of means Prigozhin and his top lieutenants. I expect that they are not going to be around for very much longer. Is that days? Is that weeks? Is that months? I don't know. But it is it is a danger. It is an ever present danger to Putin. The longer that they are there and talking and engaging and organizing a paramilitary organization. Most important thing is to get that group disbanded, which I'm sure Putin is working hard on right now.
Will Ukraine be able to capitalize on Russian infighting?
To a degree. There are about 11 divisions, Ukrainian divisions that are in position that have been trained and equipped by NATO. Most of the US and the UK, only two and a half of them have been actively involved in the counteroffensive, hasn't gone so well so far. But I mean, if Wagner is out of the fight largely, and if the Ministry of Defense forces are demoralized, and some of them are going to be needed back in Russia itself, clearly more capacity for the Ukrainians to take some territory back. We'll watch it carefully.
Secretary Yellen is now going to China. How will that affect US-China relations?
Two tracks. On the economic side, the Americans and the Chinese are trying to maintain a level of stability. There's a lot of interdependence there. On the security side, Taiwan, particularly as we talk about advanced technology, semiconductors, AI, it is essentially a technology Cold War and a lot of zero-sum relations in between the US and China. Managing both of those is getting harder, and accidents are getting more likely. I don't think Yellen's trip helps on that front.
Larry Summers explains the banking crisis
On GZERO World, Ian Bremmer and former US Treasury Secretary Larry Summers discuss a range of topics, including the global banking system, the impact of AI on the labor market, and a controversial solution for rebuilding Ukraine.
Summers, an expert on inflation, provides valuable insights into recent bank failures that have caused concern among investors worldwide. He discusses whether the current situation constitutes a banking crisis, explores the role that inflation is playing in contributing to the banking problems, and makes predictions about the duration of the current financial turmoil.
He and Bremmer also touch on the impact of AI on the labor market, with Summers warning of significant changes that will cause profound shifts in traditional hierarchies and ways of thinking, which may make influential groups uneasy.
Summers also offers a provocative solution for rebuilding Ukraine: seizing frozen Russian assets.
Note: this interview was featured on an episode of GZERO World with Ian Bremmer on April 3, 2023: The banking crisis, AI & Ukraine: Larry Summers weighs in
Getty Images/Chip Somodevilla
Podcast: Larry Summers breaks down the banking crisis
Listen: On the GZERO World podcast, Ian Bremmer and former US Treasury Secretary Larry Summers discuss the recent bank failures that are disrupting global markets and worrying investors worldwide. They discuss whether the current situation constitutes a banking crisis and explore the role of inflation in contributing to the problems. As an inflation expert, Summers provides valuable insights and predictions on the duration of the financial turmoil.
Additionally, he warns of the significant changes that AI could bring to traditional hierarchies and proposes a controversial solution for rebuilding Ukraine: seizing frozen Russian assets.
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U.S. President Joe Biden speaks with Canada's Prime Minister Justin Trudeau as they meet during the Ninth Summit of the Americas in Los Angeles, California, U.S., June 9, 2022.
US green subsidies pushback to dominate Biden's Canada trip
As Ottawa prepares for a two-day visit by President Joe Biden starting Thursday, Canadians have been speculating about whether he will do something to stop the northward flow of border crossings by undocumented migrants at Roxham Road, Quebec.
That problem is grabbing headlines, but it is nothing next to the border challenges the Americans face, and the Canadians likely have more important requests for Biden. Behind the scenes, the government is focused on getting Americans to help mitigate the impact of the Inflation Reduction Act, the largest climate spending package in US history, which could lead to the loss of capital and jobs from Canada.
The $350 billion IRA stimulus package is a challenge to both Canada and Europe, with subsidies and open-ended tax credits that offer huge savings to clean-technology companies that shift their operations to the United States. It is expected to be a game-changer for emission reductions, but also a threat to allied countries who can’t match the Americans’ spending power.
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen was in Washington this month to try to come to terms with the Americans over the nature of the threat, and the EU appears poised to match American incentives. That will come too late to save a Volkswagen battery plant that had been planned for Eastern Europe.
Not coincidentally, the German auto giant just announced plans to build a battery plant in St. Thomas, Ontario, where it can benefit from American subsidies because the auto industry is covered by the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement. That looks like a big win for Canada, but … other sectors do not enjoy the same protection, which means that companies – Canadian and foreign firms in Canada in the manufacturing, green energy, and petroleum sectors – may be tempted to move south of the border to take advantage of generous tax credits.
Canada can’t afford to woo these businesses in the same way, so it needs to match US subsidies in key sectors while also asking the Americans, very politely, to play nice.
“The IRA is the biggest piece of industrial policy coming out of the United States for a very long time, and everybody else is now adjusting to that, and [Canadians] are distinctly exposed,” says Graeme Thompson, a Eurasia Group senior analyst. “All gears are firing in Ottawa to manage the challenge that poses to competitiveness so that the US doesn't just suck up all of the investments that we'd otherwise be after.”
That task is front of mind for Canadian Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland, who will present her third budget four days after Biden leaves. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s government likely sees the two events as a one-two punch, an opportunity to wrest control of the headlines for a few days.
Biden’s visit gives Trudeau an opportunity for positive messaging. For Gerald Butts, vice chairman of Eurasia Group and former principal secretary to Trudeau, the government likely hopes to change the channel from the China election interference story, which has dominated the news in Canada for weeks.
“They've clearly got a bunch of stuff lined up where they want to make some announcements there and then run into the budget,” he says. “I think what they're hoping to do, obviously, is get control back of the communications agenda from this crazy China stuff.”
So it’s clear what Biden can do to help Canada. But what can Canada do for him?
Freeland has previously promoted US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen’s notion of “friendshoring,” building supply chains in allied economies. Her exact plans remain unknown, but Canada can offer the Americans access to critical minerals vital to green energy — like lithium and copper — and take steps to streamline approval for mining projects, although Indigenous land rights may make it impossible to go as quickly as industry would like.
Biden is also seeking more help in Ukraine and Haiti. The US wants Ottawa to play a lead role in planning for Ukraine’s reconstruction, which is reasonable. But nobody thinks Canada will do what Biden wants and put peacekeepers on the ground in Haiti, where gangs have turned the national capital into a hellscape. On the other hand, a lack of action will likely lead to even more desperate migrants heading north – a political problem for both governments, which brings us full circle to migration.
Trudeau wants the US to renegotiate the terms of the Safe Third Country Agreement, which requires that asylum-seekers who cross select parts of the US-Canada 5,525-mile border be sent back to the country where they first entered. Trouble is, this encourages migrants to enter at irregular crossings, such as Roxham Road, and once they’re in Canada, they can legally make asylum claims. The Americans have been noncommittal, and they point to uncontrolled irregular crossings in the other direction: Mexicans who can fly into Canada without a visa and then make a short river crossing to the United States.
From the US perspective, Canada is not doing its part, says Christopher Sands, director of the Wilson Center’s Canada Institute.
“We have problems on both our borders,” he says. “You think your border's better, but we both have illegal crossers and we are just as mad about all of them. You're not any better than the Mexicans. We should get better co-operation from you. It's been one of those debates.”
Biden isn’t likely to renegotiate the STCA unless Canada agrees to do more to control the traffic going the other way, and maybe agrees to take more migrants from Central America.
“I think it's gonna be very tough for the president to do much when he's in Canada,” Sands says.
On the other hand, Trudeau and Biden are progressive political allies, and both are struggling with lackluster approval ratings, so they may want to make some deals and show progress on issues that matter on the ground to voters in both countries.
Fun fact: Biden is the first president to spend a night in Ottawa since George W. Bush came north to thank Canada for its help after 9/11. He’s likely not spending so much time — a precious commodity for the world’s most powerful man — without intending to do something that matters.
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In a world of increasing chaos, the US-Canada relationship is more crucial than ever, from trade and migration to defense, culture, and technology. To meet the moment, we’re launching GZERO North, a new weekly newsletter offering you an insider’s guide to the very latest political, economic, and cultural news shaping both countries. Subscribe today!
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