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British Chancellor of the Exchequer Rishi Sunak leaves Millbank Studios after a media interview in London, Britain, May 27, 2022.

REUTERS/John Sibley

Hard Numbers: Sinking Sunak, Mellon's millions for Trump, Israelis bearish on two-state solution, Thousands displaced in Haiti, Chinese carmakers take aim at EU

516: British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak might be on the verge of making history … and not in a good way. He could be the first sitting prime minister to lose their seat in a general election, according to a new poll, which predicts Labour could win a whopping 516 seats in Parliament. Meanwhile, the poll suggests that Sunak’s Conservative Party will win just 53 seats.

50 million: Conservative billionaire Timothy Mellon reportedly sent $50 million to Donald Trump's presidential campaign the day after the former president was convicted on 34 felony counts in his hush-money trial last month. Donations disclosed to the Federal Election Commission show that the Trump campaign raked in $68 million from donors in May. Oddly, Mellon has also been the biggest donor to independent candidate Robert Kennedy Jr.’s campaign, having donated at least $20 million to his super pac in the past.

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People walk in front of BYD Auto company and Autotorino store in Milan, Italy, March 20, 2024.

REUTERS/Claudia Greco

It’s about to be “Trade War Summer” in Europe!

The EU is expected to slap tariffs on Chinese-made electric vehicles this week, citing a months-long investigation into Beijing’s subsidies for EV manufacturers.

The move comes amid wider EU-China trade tensions over green technologies like EVs, solar panels, and batteries, where China has become a major low-cost producer whose exports often undercut those of Western competitors.

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Jess Frampton

Caught between giants: Canada’s role in US-China EV dispute

Canada must be tired of getting stuck between major world powers. Yet, as the Biden administration moves to nearly quadruple tariffs – to a whopping 102.5% – on imported Chinese electric vehicles, the Trudeau government may have to choose between provoking a trade war with China or alienating its top ally.

The increased US tariffs on Chinese EVs are part of a package of trade measures the Biden administration is imposing on its rival. They will also hit steel, aluminum, solar cells, semiconductors, batteries, and more as the administration seeks to shield domestic workers from “China’s unfair trade practices concerning technology transfer, intellectual property, and innovation.”

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US-China relationship at its most stable in years as Yellen visits
US-China: Economic ties are “reasonably stable”, other tensions persist | Ian Bremmer | Quick Take

US-China relationship at its most stable in years as Yellen visits

Ian Bremmer's Quick Take: A Quick Take to kick off your week. Want to talk about the most important geopolitical relationship in the world, the US and China. Janet Yellen, the secretary of treasury, back over to China yet again, both to help ensure that the relationship is reasonably stable, also to deliver tough messages in places where she feels like that is required, the Biden administration feels it's required. And it's been a useful trip.

On the one hand, the United States, like the Europeans, delivering tough messages on Chinese dumping, on overproduction and low-cost goods going into the American and European markets, because of massive state subsidy, into key sectors. Particular concern on transition energy. On the one hand, great to see more effort to reduce carbon emissions, both in China and globally, and as the prices come down, that's a good thing. On the other hand, really hurting less competitive corporates that don't have that level of state subsidy in the United States and Europe. Tesla was really fast out of the box, hasn't got much support from the White House, but that's been the American champion to the extent that there is one. On the other hand, when you talk about other corporations, American and European, nowhere close to the Chinese. The hundreds of Chinese EV companies that are less expensive, they are higher quality, they are manufacturing at scale, and people can buy them all over the world. So, that is creating a lot of friction.

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President Joe Biden riding around in a Hummer EV during a tour of the General Motors 'Factory ZERO' electric vehicle assembly plant, in Detroit, Michigan, back in 2021.

REUTERS/Jonathan Ernst

Biden boosts EVs with new tailpipe emissions rules

As goes the American car market, so goes the world. Or at least large swathes of North America. With the Biden administration’s latest auto regulations, that may mean electric vehicles pull ahead as those with internal combustion engines.

On Wednesday, President Joe Biden introduced tailpipe pollution limits that require automakers to reduce carbon emissions from their vehicles by 56% by 2032 based on 2026 levels.

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Employees work on an assembly line at startup Rivian Automotive's electric vehicle factory in Normal, Illinois, U.S. April 11, 2022.

REUTERS/Kamil Krzaczynski

North American EV makers face headwinds

Asian electric vehicles surged at the end of 2023 in both the United States and around the world, raising questions about the feasibility of North American plans to profit from the conversion to electric transport.

In the US, Hyundai and Kia came second to Tesla in sales, but ahead of Chevrolet and Ford. Hyundai and Kia, which are both manufactured by Hyundai Motor Group, have profited by focusing efforts on low-cost sedans, unlike American manufacturers, who have emphasized SUVs and pick-ups.

Globally, Chinese automaker BYD outsold Tesla in the final quarter of 2023 by cutting prices. BYD, which makes its own batteries, is seen as a growing force in the international market, second only to Tesla.

EV sales are up in the crucial US market, although the transition is slowing. The softening market and growing strength of Asian competitors are raising questions among auto executives about the shift to EVs. Both Joe Biden and Justin Trudeau’s governments are spending huge amounts on tax incentives and manufacturing credits to create jobs at home while pushing to cut emissions through EV sales.

In Canada, the auto parts industry is expressing skepticism about the feasibility of the Trudeau government’s target of 60% of sales by 2030, which is more aggressive than Biden’s 50% target. Analysts say the only way the targets can be met is if a large number of Chinese vehicles are imported.

Speed bumps on the road to EV dominance

The political push to speed the transition from conventional to electric vehicles has hit a speed bump after both Ford and GM signaled concern about the fundamentals of their EV business. This casts a pall over the ambitious subsidies of President Joe Biden’s and PM Justin Trudeau’s governments, which are designed to hurriedly nudge industry in both countries toward a bright low-emissions future where North Americans zip around in electric vehicles.
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U.S. President Joe Biden steps out of an electric Chevrolet Silverado EV pickup truck being shown to him by General Motors Chief Executive Mary Barra during a visit to the Detroit Auto Show.

Reuters

Biden’s EV agenda runs up against his China agenda too

Joe Biden has big plans to supercharge the US electric vehicle industry. He wants half of all new cars sold in the US to be electric by 2030 as part of his bigger goal of putting the country on track to be carbon neutral by 2050.

But as admirable as it may be from a climate policy perspective, Biden’s EV agenda is also getting him in trouble with other policy priorities.

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