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Is the global economy finally on the right track?
How’s the global economy doing… really? When it comes to the world’s post-COVID recovery, it’s a tale of two economies: the United States and everyone else. On GZERO World, Ian Bremmer sits down with economist and author Dambisa Moyo for a hard look at the health of the world’s finances and the impact of geopolitical crises in Europe and the Middle East on trade flows and inflation.
Right now, US indicators are strong, but Germany and the UK are slipping into mild recessions, and China’s collapsing real estate sector, local government debt, and exodus of foreign investment is dragging the world’s second-largest economy into stagnation. Not to mention, Global South countries are holding record amounts of debt. So what does it all mean moving forward? Is the global economy still shaking off its post-Covid hangover or are some of these problems more entrenched?
“We need to be growing at 3% per year in order to double per capita incomes in a generation which is 25 years,” Moyo says, “Most of the global south is growing below that number, materially.”
Ian Bremmer and Dambisa Moyo unpack the confusing state of the global economy, China’s economic woes, and where they see the biggest potential for growth in developing economies during the next decade.
Catch GZERO World with Ian Bremmer every week at gzeromedia.com/gzeroworld or on US public television. Check local listings.
- China’s economy in trouble ›
- Ian Explains: Why China’s era of high growth is over ›
- Struggling for economic progress as global recession looms in 2023 ›
- Dambisa Moyo: Europe's energy transition needs more than a "band-aid solution" ›
- The unintended effect of US-China economic breakup ›
- What saved the global economy from another Great Depression? ›
- Global economy headed to a recession ›
- What geopolitics stories could still blow up the global economy? ›
The global economy: good news and bad news from economist Dambisa Moyo
Listen: In the latest episode of the GZERO World Podcast, Ian Bremmer sits down with economist, author, and member of the UK parliament’s House of Lords Dambisa Moyo for a hard look at the health of the world’s finances, the impact of geopolitical crises in Europe and the Middle East on trade flows and inflation, and how China’s economic woes are impacting everyone else.
Right now, US indicators are strong, but Germany and the UK are slipping into mild recessions, and China’s collapsing real estate sector, local government debt, and exodus of foreign investment is dragging the world’s second-largest economy into stagnation. Not to mention, Global South countries hold record amounts of debt. So what does it all mean moving forward? Is the global economy still shaking off its post-Covid hangover or are some of these problems more entrenched?
Subscribe to the GZERO World Podcast on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, or your preferred podcast platform, to receive new episodes as soon as they're published.
Hard Numbers: Earth sets gloomy climate record, China’s economy deflates, US Marines found dead, Nigeria faces off with Ivory Coast
15: While much of the world is suffering under the weight of inflation, China is battling deflation. Prices in the country have fallen to their lowest level in 15 years. China’s consumer price index fell 0.8% year-over-year in January, as Beijing struggles to rebound from a tanking stock market, collapsing foreign investment, declining exports, and its property sector in freefall.
5: Five US Marines were confirmed dead in California on Thursday, after the helicopter they were in crashed not far from San Diego early Wednesday during a routine training flight. President Joe Biden said he and first lady Jill Biden are “heartbroken” and extended their “deepest condolences to their families, their squadron, and the US Marine Corps.”
7,000,000: Nigeria will face off against host nation Ivory Coast in the Africa Cup of Nations final on Sunday. Apart from being crowned the champions of Africa’s most prestigious soccer tournament, the winning team takes home $7 million.
Davos 2024: China, AI & key topics dominating at the World Economic Forum
Ian Bremmer's Quick Take: Hi, everybody. Ian Bremmer here in Davos, Switzerland, for the kickoff of the World Economic Forum, 54th annual, though I haven’t been coming for quite that long. Lots going on here, of course, lots of concerns given ongoing wars as backdrop.
The big story so far, I would say, is that the Chinese are in force, 140 members of the delegation, ten ministers showing up, all with economic portfolios, and they want to engage. This is about a near state visit with the Swiss government, a trade agreement, and basically talking to a bunch of foreign direct investors, many of whom are saying, “Hey, we don't think you guys are so investible; we're going more into India and Vietnam and Mexico.” And the Chinese recognizing that they need to put up and make life easier for them. That has been interesting.
The Americans, especially the American government, very skeptical about all of this, of course, but in the near-term at least, don't have a major crisis, especially on the back of recent Taiwan elections. A lot of people are expecting a crisis there. Both sides trying to manage it. On the more negative camp, Ukrainian President Zelensky coming shortly. 83 states participated in an effort at some kind of peace negotiations just yesterday. Perfectly friendly meeting, absolutely no movement towards any diplomacy. The Russians aren't there, the Chinese aren't there, and the Ukrainians aren't going to accept anything that's remotely acceptable to the Russians as a party. What that means, of course, is that the Ukrainians are feeling increasingly desperate, that they need to make sure they get the support to defend themselves at a time that the Europeans are worried about spending the money and the Americans are divided about spending the money.
A little good news there, Senator Chris Murphy was supposed to be part of the big congressional delegation that comes to Davos every year from the US, didn't show up at the last minute. The reason is because they are working and making progress to get that additional budget deal done in Washington that would provide for some border security money, also provide for money, $60 billion for Ukraine, help them defend themselves in 2024. It's not what Trump wants to see, but he's not the Republican nominee yet, so the consequence is there is still movement.
Other final thing here that's getting a lot of a lot of attention is artificial intelligence. Of course, because it's the World Economic Forum, you mostly have people that are selling their new companies, but there's a lot of money behind them, a lot of enthusiasm. And unlike most flavor of the month type technologies, this is affecting pretty much every company in every sector here. So you can't go to a corporation or a bank and not have an AI related conversation as part of your bilateral. That's pretty interesting. 15 years of coming here, I've never seen anything like it. I'm kind of optimistic. Even though the technology is moving a lot faster than the governments.
Anyway, that's it kicking off this week at the World Economic Forum. I hope everyone is doing well, and I'll talk to you all real soon.
- China flirts with deflation. Why is that a bad thing? ›
- We need to talk about China’s economy ›
- China’s economy in trouble ›
- Ian Explains: Why China’s era of high growth is over ›
- Why is Xi Jinping willing to slow down China’s economy? ›
- Davos 2024: AI is having a moment at the World Economic Forum - GZERO Media ›
- Ukraine pushes to stay top of mind at Davos 2024 - GZERO Media ›
- How is the world tackling AI, Davos' hottest topic? - GZERO Media ›
A world of conflict: The top risks of 2024
2024 is shaping up to be a turbulent year. The war in Ukraine is heading into a stalemate that puts the country on the road to partition. Israel's invasion of Gaza risks expanding to a region-wide war. And in the United States, the presidential election is pitting a divided country against itself with unprecedented risks for its democracy. Throw in AI growing faster than governments can keep up, China's rumbly grumbly economy, and El Nino weather, and you're starting to get the picture.
All those trends and more made it onto Eurasia Group's annual Top Risk project for 2024. As a political risk consultancy, Eurasia Group strives to keep clients informed of the global affairs that will impact their interests and bottom lines. The Top Risks project takes the view from 30,000 feet every year, summarizing the biggest and most dangerous unknowns that will affect everyone, political junkie or not.
GZERO Publisher Evan Solomon sat down with Eurasia Group Founder and President Ian Bremmer and Chairman Cliff Kupchan to work through their list of Top Risks for 2024 alongside Susan Glasser, staff writer at The New Yorker and co-author of "The Divider: Trump in the White House, 2017-2021"; Zeid Ra'ad Al Hussein, CEO & President of the International Peace Institute and former United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights; and Marietje Schaake, International Policy Fellow, Stanford Human-Centered Artificial Intelligence. The big throughline this year? Events spiral out of control even against the wishes of major players. Whether it's possible escalation between Israel and Iranian proxies, Chinese retaliation to the result of the Taiwanese election, or central banks finding themselves squeezed into a corner by persistent inflation, the sheer number of moving parts presents a risk in and of itself.
Take a deep dive with the panel in our full discussion, livestreamed on Jan. 8.
- Will China end Russia’s war? ›
- The AI power paradox: Rules for AI's power ›
- Accelerating Sustainability with AI: A Playbook ›
- Top Risks 2023: A rogue Russia and autocrats threatening the world ›
- Eurasia Group’s Top Global Risks 2024 ›
- 2024's top global risks: The trifecta of wars threatening global peace - GZERO Media ›
- What would a second Trump term mean? Think Jurassic Park - GZERO Media ›
- Trump's immunity claim: US democracy in crisis - GZERO Media ›
- Pakistan-Iran attacks: Another Middle East conflict heats up - GZERO Media ›
- AI regulation means adapting old laws for new tech: Marietje Schaake - GZERO Media ›
- 2024 is the ‘Voldemort’ of election years, says Ian Bremmer - GZERO Media ›
US CEOs too influential on China policy, says Rahm Emanuel
US CEOs are too cozy with Beijing, says US Ambassador to Japan Rahm Emanuel.
At the APEC summit last November in San Francisco, heads of state and diplomats from nations in the Asia-Pacific met to address a wide array of strategic interests and challenges. But no other meeting was as closely watched as that between US President Joe Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping. As successful as that meeting may have been on a PR level (at least according to the delegations of each leader), one man present took special note of what happened afterward. US Ambassador to Japan, Rahm Emanuel, told Ian Bremmer about that summit during an exclusive interview in the latest episode of GZERO World, filmed at the Ambassador's residence in Tokyo, Japan.
"President Xi goes to have a meeting with American CEOs who give him a standing ovation, though he hasn't yet said anything," recounted Ambassador Emanuel. "The President of the United States goes to an event, and all the heads of state are there. That tells you about alliances, that tells you about the interests of China."
Bremmer then noted that it also tells you something about the interests of American CEOs. to which Emanuel responded: "I think the American CEOs are way too influential in American foreign policy in this region, way too influential."
Catch GZERO World with Ian Bremmer every week at gzeromedia.com/gzeroworld or on US public television. Check local listings.
Hard Numbers: Gaza death toll undercount, China’s deflating economic news, Cuba’s growing exodus, Amazing eyeball news
0.2: Consumer prices in China fell 0.2% on an annual basis in October, meaning the world’s second-largest economy is now officially experiencing deflation, where sluggish demand for goods and services causes prices to fall. The news accentuates ongoing concerns about China’s mediocre post-pandemic economic recovery. Why are falling prices a bad thing? See our explainer here.
10,700: Roughly 10,700 Cubans were detained at the US southern border in September, nearly twice the figure in August, as a deepening economic crisis in the Caribbean island nation drives more people to take the risk of undocumented migration to the United States. Many of those arriving via Mexico have completed a 1,500-mile journey on foot.
2: A US man who lost most of his face and his left eye in a high-voltage power line accident has two eyes again as a result of the world’s first transplant of an entire human eyeball. It’s too soon to tell whether the new eye works properly, but the breakthrough has millions of sports fans around the world wondering if referees and umpires have heard of this treatment.From developers to defense leaders, China’s disappearing elite
Why do Chinese officials keep vanishing? On Saturday, several executives of the beleaguered property developer Evergrande Group were arrested in the southern city of Shenzhen, where the conglomerate is headquartered. It is unclear how many persons were detained, or their names or titles, though a statement by local police referenced one individual named “Du.” There is speculation that this individual is Du Liang, who in 2021 was listed as head of Evergrande’s wealth management unit.
Evergrande made headlines in Aug. 2023 when it filed for US bankruptcy protection, and is currently undergoing a restructuring plan for its $340 billion debt. On Friday, China’s national financial regulator announced it had approved the takeover of Evergrande’s life insurance business by a new state-owned entity.
These arrests come on the heels of the disappearance two weeks ago of China’s defense minister, Li Shangfu. According to US officials, Li is under investigation for corruption along with eight senior officials who worked in a military procurement unit that he led from 2017 to 2022. Beijing, however, is staying mum: On Friday, a Chinese Foreign Ministry spokeswoman said she was “not aware” of the situation.
These incidents, as well as the recent removal of Qin Gang as Chinese foreign minister and a shake-up at the top of the country’s nuclear forces, have led to speculation that President Xi Jinping is conducting a purge within China’s defense apparatus. If so, it remains to be seen whether that reflects squabbling within the Chinese elite, a more general consolidation of Xi’s power, or a house-cleaning ahead of some big move by the Chinese president. But a wave of disappearing acts at the top of the world’s second largest economy are not a good sign.