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Global economic outlook: Is a recession already here?

“We’re heading toward a substantial U.S. recession,” said Robert Kahn, Eurasia Group’s Managing Director, Global Macro. “We may even be in one now.”

That notion challenges the official economic outlook released this week by the International Monetary Fund, which was more cautious in its assessment. However, it more closely mirrors what experts are saying in the halls at the IMF-World Bank Spring Meetings currently underway in Washington, D.C.

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Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas speaks during a press briefing on the World Economic Outlook during the 2025 World Bank and IMF Spring Meetings on April 22, 2025 in Washington, DC.

Photo by Samuel Corum/Sipa USA

IMF downgrades growth outlook

“Just since January, we’ve entered into a new era,” IMF’s Chief Economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas told the press Tuesday at the Spring Meetings of the International Monetary Fund and World Bank. He explained why the IMF had just downgraded global economic growth expectations for 2025, from 3.3% to 2.8%, and global trade growth by more than half, from 3.8% last year to 1.7%.

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Senegal's Presidential Bassirou Diomaye Faye casts his ballot during the early legislative election, at a polling station in Ndiaganiao, Mbour, Senegal on Nov. 17, 2024.

Abdou Karim Ndoye/Senegal's Presidency/Handout via Reuters

Senegal goes to the polls

Over seven million of Senegal’s 17 million citizens were eligible to cast their ballots Sunday in elections for the country’s 165-seat National Assembly. President Bassirou Diomaye Faye called the snap vote eight months after taking office, seeking a majority mandate for economic reforms as the country grapples with high inflation and widespread unemployment.
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UN's Rebeca Grynspan on the world’s debt crisis: Can it be solved?

Today, around 3.3 billion people live in countries spending more on debt than on essential services like education and healthcare, and governments worldwide are struggling to pay these debts. Rebeca Grynspan, secretary-general of the UN Conference on Trade and Development, warns of looming trade wars and faltering financial systems designed to reduce global poverty and promote development. What will it take to get countries back on track? Grynspan shares insights on this, highlighting the roles of the UN General Assembly and the International Monetary Fund in a Global Stage interview with GZERO’s Tony Maciulison the sidelines of the 7th annual Paris Peace Forum.

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IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva speaks to the media during an International Monetary and Financial Committee press briefing on Friday, Oct. 25, 2024.

Graeme Sloan/Sipa USA via Reuters

IMF and World Bank close annual meetings with urgent call for fragile economies

At the plenary session concluding the International Monetary Fund and World Bank’s 2024 Annual Meetings in Washington, DC, on Friday, IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva made clear there was no time to rest. Although wealthy countries seem likely to achieve the much-vaunted “soft landing” — reducing inflation without a recession — geopolitical, climactic, and fiscal risks are putting great strain on the world’s most vulnerable economies.
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Hot topics at the IMF-World Bank meetings

Delegates at the IMF and World Bank Annual Meetings have been giving rosy outlooks to the press while the cameras are rolling, but GZERO Senior Writer Matthew Kendrick heard a different story in private settings. He told Tony Maciulis that the global outlook depends heavily on US policy continuity — which is highly unlikely under a second Trump administration — and successful efforts in China to revive its own floundering economy.

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Matthew Kendrick

Can the IMF change to help more women?

When a country hits rock bottom financially, the International Monetary Fund is meant to step in with funds to stabilize the economy without damaging its society — or the gender gap. But studies show that these programs often push women out of work at a disproportionate rate to men as the economy contracts.

Alongside this week’s World Bank-IMF Annual Meetings in Washington, DC, the IMF held a policy forum on Tuesday to discuss a new tool called Gender Impact Assessments, which are designed to help build more equitable programs — and protect some of the world’s most vulnerable women.

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Ukrainian central bank head Andriy Pryshnyy (right) at the 2024 IMF/World Bank Annual Meetings in Washington, DC. Oct. 23, 2024

Matthew Kendrick/GZERO Media

Ukraine secures fifth round of IMF funding, but less talk of reconstruction

The International Monetary Fund announced Wednesday that Ukraine had successfully completed the fifth revision of its financing program and will receive $1.1 billion to support its non-military budget. This is a major achievement for Kyiv and has required extensive reforms while at war. It’s a war that has not gone well in the last year to boot, and talk about reconstruction — and the IMF and World Bank’s roles therein — has diminished as a result.

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