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Britain's Chancellor of the Exchequer Jeremy Hunt poses with the budget box at Downing Street in London, Britain March 15, 2023.

REUTERS/Hannah McKay

A new attitude and a new budget: Can the Tories make a comeback?

Weeks after the International Monetary Fund forecast that the UK will be the worst-performing advanced economy this year, British Chancellor Jeremy Hunt on Wednesday handed down a fresh national budget. (Though the independent Office for Budget Responsibility now says that the economy will only contract by 0.2% this year, an improvement on previous forecasts of 1.4%.)

Budgets can have a massive impact on politics. You’ll likely remember that ephemeral PM Liz Truss’ “mini” budget last fall caused the markets to nosedive, leading to her swift resignation.

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Electoral campaign posters are seen ahead of Nigeria's Presidential elections, in Yola, Nigeria, February 23, 2023.

REUTERS/Esa Alexander

What We're Watching: Nigerians vote, Biden's World Bank pick

Nigeria's presidential election head-scratcher

Nigerians go to the polls Saturday to vote in what is being billed as the most open presidential election in Africa's most populous country since democracy was restored in 1999. That's mostly thanks to buzz about Peter Obi, a third-party candidate who's leading most polls ahead of both Bola Ahmed Tinubu, the ruling party's pick, and opposition candidate Atiku Abubakar. With almost half the electorate undecided, Obi faces tough odds. First, to win outright, he must get the most votes nationwide and at least 25% in at least two-thirds of Nigeria's 36 states – but he doesn’t have strong party machinery to turn out voters. Second, if no candidate meets both conditions, the election goes to a runoff between the most-voted for candidate and — here's where it gets complicated — the one who placed second in the highest number of states. Also, keep an eye out for the rollout of machines to verify biometric voter ID to curb fraud. If the devices malfunction or are not widely deployed, expect many Nigerians to consider the election anything but free and fair.

Interested in the Nigerian election? Listen to Amaka Anku, head of Eurasia Group’s Africa practice, on this GZERO podcast in collaboration with The Center for Global Development podcast.

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NATO flag

Ari Winkleman

What We’re Watching: NATO members’ defense budgets, Social Security as a political weapon, China’s support for Sri Lanka

NATO chief wants more defense spending

As Russian aggression in Ukraine enters year two, NATO members need to boost their defense spending. That was the message from NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg Wednesday after a summit with member states’ defense ministers. Back in 2014, around the time of Russia’s invasion of Crimea, NATO states committed to raising their respective defense spending to 2% of gross domestic product. (NATO’s direct budget is separate from national defense budgets.) Still, while many have increased their spending on military equipment and training, most NATO states – including Germany, France, Italy, and Canada – still fall short of the 2% threshold. The US, for its part, leads the pack, spending 3.47% of GDP on defense. (You’ll likely remember that former President Donald Trump made a habit of slamming NATO members, particularly Germany, for not paying their fair share. As war ravages Europe again and tensions with China soar, Stoltenberg says that the 2% target, which expires next year, should be the floor – not the ceiling. Finland and Sweden, both vying to join the bloc, respectively spend 2% and 1.3% of GDP on defense.

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The Risk of A Global Recession Has Gone Up, Says IMF Chief | GZERO World

The risk of a global recession has gone up, says IMF Chief

Kristina Georgieva, Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund, says the risk of a global recession has gone up due to three major reasons: the big global economies are slowing down, inflation is speeding up, and the world’s global order is fragmenting. She shares her perspective on the economic challenges facing the world in a conversation with Ian Bremmer on GZERO World.

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Ian Explains: The State of the Global Economy Is … Not Good | GZERO World

The state of the global economy is … not good

This year, the annual fall meetings of the World Bank and the IMF were all about global economic doom and gloom.

The IMF has cut its global growth prediction for this year by half compared to 2021. And next year will be the worst since COVID and the 2008 financial crisis.

Meanwhile, inflation is still very high — and efforts by rich countries to tame rising prices are going to hurt poor nations.

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Europe's 2023 Energy Scarcity Will Drive Green Transition | GZERO World

Europe's 2023 energy scarcity will drive green transition, says IMF chief

With soaring energy prices, Europe is headed toward a dark winter. But next year could be even worse.

If Vladimir Putin continues to weaponize natural gas supplies, IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva believes 2023 will be an even tougher winter for the Europeans, she tells Ian Bremmer on GZERO World.

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3 Reasons Risk of Global Recession in 2023 Has Increased | IMF's Kristalina Georgieva | GZERO World

3 reasons risk of global recession in 2023 has increased

A global recession is looming in 2023. But why?

Speaking to Ian Bremmer on GZERO World, IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva offers three reasons.

First, all the big economies — the US, China, and the Eurozone — are slowing down at the same time.

Second, inflation shows no signs of abating.

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Can the World Avoid a Global Recession? | GZERO World with Ian Bremmer

Can the world avoid a global recession?

This year, the annual fall meetings of the World Bank and the IMF are all about global economic doom and gloom.

How bad will it get? Are we headed toward a worldwide recession? And who will bear the brunt of the pain?

To get some answers, GZERO World with Ian Bremmer has two very special guests: World Bank President David Malpass and IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva.

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