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Ghana, Accra, 2023-02-16. Young schoolchildren in uniform learning multiplication tables. Illustration image of children in a school in Ghana. A little girl is at the blackboard reciting in front of the class.
To get rich, Ghana needs to wise up
About a quarter of all the chocolate you eat comes from Ghanaian cacao, so with prices at all-time highs, Ghanaian farmers should be raking it in. Instead, they’re selling at fixed prices to a government that’s struggling to settle its debts after a crushing $30 billion default last year.
On Monday, Ghana failed to reach a debt deal to restructure $13 billion in debt, breaching the terms of its International Monetary Fund bailout and pushing the country to the brink. According to the IMF, Ghana is borrowing too much in the same high-interest rate environment that led to the original default. If the government cannot formulate a plan that meets IMF standards, it risks $360 million in upcoming relief.
Nonetheless, the IMF is optimistic that the children of today’s cacao farmers will be driving the global economy in a decade or two. “The 21st century will be the African century,” said economist Michele Fornino on Monday at the IMF/World Bank spring meetings in Washington, DC. He pointed to the increasing numbers of young Africans joining the global workforce, contrasting it with the population slowdowns in Europe, East Asia, and North America that will diminish their economic clout.
But it all depends on getting those kids to school. About one in four children in Ghana is unable to attend school, a rate well below other developing countries. Improving that number will be crucial but difficult if Ghana stays trapped in perpetual cycles of debt and default.
Fornino pointed to South Korea, once among the poorest countries in the world before the vaunted “Miracle on the Han River” transformed it into a wealthy, globally connected society. “South Korean GDP would be one-third of what it is today without the improvements in education that began in 1970,” he said, and the IMF’s long-term goal is to help Ghana and other African countries make the most of similar demographic dividends.
A farmer opens a cocoa pod at a cocoa farm in Azaguie, Ivory Coast, October 22, 2019. Picture taken October 22, 2019.
Why Easter chocolate cost so much this year
The Easter Bunny is sweating over his chocolate bill this year thanks to rising prices. A ton of cocoa runs you a cool $10,000 today, double what it cost a month ago and triple what it cost this time last year. Still, the West African farmers who grow the world’s favorite treat have yet to see a windfall.
The culprit? Three straight years of bad harvests have led one manufacturer to estimate the supply of cocoa will fall some 500,000 tons short of demand in 2024. That’s about a 10% deficit – and part of the reason cocoa is growing in value faster than bitcoin.
Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana grow more than half of the world’s cocoa, mostly on small family farms. A combination of changing weather patterns and a growing problem with diseases are yielding fewer and fewer beans from each tree.
Farmers usually don’t benefit from higher prices on commodity exchanges in New York and London, since the governments in Accra and Yamoussoukro set fixed prices ahead of each growing season. This year, that was roughly $1,600 a ton. The practice has long left farmers underpaid and leads to underinvestment in their farms, which compounds dwindling productivity.
Long term, analysts say chocolate prices for consumers could double. With no easy way to boost production, this means the Easter Bunny may face an even bigger hop into next year’s baskets.An oblong repousse gold ornament with three bands of decora is displayed in this undated handout picture obtained by Reuters.
The UK finally returns looted treasures … for a limited time only
If someone takes your stuff and only returns it with conditions attached, you might be the victim of a mafia swindling. Or British imperialism.
The looted “crown jewels” of Ghana are being returned to the country by two prominent British museums on a three-year loan agreement, with an option to extend for another three years.
What was taken: 32 gold and silver items from the former Asante Empire — located in modern-day Ghana — many of which haven’t been back there in 150 years.
When they were taken: During British incursions against the Asante Empire in the 1800s, before the kingdom was fully annexed by the British in 1901. The modern Ghanaian government has sought their return for years.
Why it matters: The agreement might be seen as a blueprint for future deals in which museums return items taken from abroad under suspect or coercive circumstances. The deal was struck between the current ceremonial Asante king and the museums directly. Its terms get around British laws that prevent UK museums from unilaterally returning artifacts — like the Parthenon Marbles to Greece or the Benin Bronzes to Nigeria (and the list goes on).
But don’t expect UK museum wings to empty out anytime soon. A spokesperson for Prime Minister Rishi Sunak assured that Britain “would expect the items to be returned at the end of that loan period.”
For more on the highly charged identity politics of art, see our recent special on the 200-year-old fight over Parthenon Marbles here.
A map showing countries in Africa and Asia that criminalize same-sex acts, by degree of punishment.
The Graphic Truth: Criminalizing LGBTQ love
Last week, Uganda’s parliament passed legislation that criminalizes identifying as LGBTQ, which puts individuals at risk of life imprisonment, or in some cases, even death. Similarly, draconian legislation over identifying as LGBTQ is under consideration in Ghana, and VP Kamala Harris’s visit to Zambia this week – for a summit celebrating democracy – is stoking anti-LGBTQ rhetoric. As of 2023, many parts of the world are still unsafe for the LGBTQ community, as same-sex acts are deemed illegal in 65 countries, from Latin America to Oceania. The death penalty is a possibility in 11 countries worldwide. We look at the range of penalties in Africa and Asia, the two continents with the highest number of countries criminalizing same-sex acts.
U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris and Second Gentleman Doug Emhoff walk to a helicopter on their way to Cape Coast in Accra, Ghana, Tuesday March 28, 2023.
What We’re Watching: Zambia warns against anti-LGBTQ protests, AI scares tech leaders
Zambia warns against anti-LGBTQ protests ahead of Harris’s arrival
Zambia’s President Hakainde Hichilema is warning against anti-LGBTQ protests ahead of US Veep Kamala Harris’s visit Friday, part of a three-nation Africa tour aimed at shoring up US relations across Africa.
While in Lusaka, Harris will (virtually) address the Summit for Democracy, a Biden-crafted international conference designed to bolster democratic institutions and norms amid rising global authoritarianism. But dozens of Zambian opposition MPs claim the summit also aims to introduce gay rights to the country.
The opposition Patriotic Front Party reportedly plans to hold protests before the summit, but Hichilema has called for calm and for a dialogue with his opponents. Earlier this month, he vowed to maintain Zambia’s laws criminalizing consensual same-sex acts, which carry a life sentence.
This isn’t the first time gay rights have come up during Harris’s tour. In Ghana, she noted that LGBTQ rights are human rights but did not discuss the proposed Ghanaian bill to criminalize LGBTQ identification and advocacy. Harris’s visit also follows Uganda’s adoption last week of a draconian law that criminalizes identifying as LGBTQ, which could involve the death penalty in some cases.
Is AI getting too smart, too fast?
Yes, according to billionaire Elon Musk and over 1,000 other artificial intelligence luminaries, who've published an open letter calling for a six-month "pause" on further AI development. Why? So it doesn't threaten humanity by creating digital minds so powerful that they can't be controlled by humans.
But perhaps "humanity" is code for white-collar jobs. After all, Goldman Sachs just warned that AI could put up to 300 million people out of work in a decade. Most at-risk jobs are desk gigs, not blue-collar manufacturing jobs we once thought would be wiped out by automation.
Should that be more or less important than stopping AI from automating political misinformation in social media? And what if China takes advantage of the pause to beat the US in the AI race? Let us know your thoughts on taking an AI break here.
Hard Numbers: Russian oil stops flowing, Ghana wants more IMF cash, Iran nuclear deal hopes, vinegar wars
0: That's how much Russian oil is currently flowing through the southern Druzhba pipeline, which transits Ukraine and services the Czech Republic, Hungary, and Slovakia. Although those three EU member states are exempt from the bloc’s ban on Russian oil, Moscow says that EU sanctions made its payments to the Ukrainian operator bounce, so Kyiv shut off the flow on Aug. 4. We are certain there will be more to this story …
3 billion: To prop up its ailing economy, Ghana is now negotiating a $3 billion IMF loan, double the amount it asked for just a month ago. That's when mass protests over inflation rocked the West African country, one of many nations in need of a bailout to restructure piling debts.
15: After 15 months of brokering indirect talks in Qatar between Iran and the US to revive the long-moribund 2015 Iran nuclear deal, EU officials have submitted a final text for Tehran to sign. We've been down this road many times before, so don't hold your breath.
1 billion: After launching a Prosecco war against Croatia, Italy is now tussling with Slovenia over balsamic vinegar. The Slovenians want the EU to recognize any wine vinegar mixed with concentrated fruit juice as "balsamic." Ma va, say the Italians — it can only come from Modena, Emilia-Romagna, not to mention it's a market worth $1 billion.This comes to you from the Signal newsletter team of GZERO Media. Subscribe for your free daily Signal today.
What We’re Watching: Belarusian spooks plot killings abroad, Army enters Ghana’s parliament
Did Belarus have plans to kill dissidents abroad? On Monday, the EU Observer, an online newspaper, published a recording of unclear origin that is allegedly an April 2012 conversation between a former Belarusian spy chief and two unidentified men, in which the three discuss a plan to assassinate Belarusian dissidents living under asylum abroad, including in Germany. The men discuss the names of assassination targets, the use of poison and explosives, and refer to a "special account" to fund the plans. Adding to the intrigue, is the resemblance between the methods discussed in the recording and those used to carry out the car bomb assassination in Ukraine of a Belarusian journalist in 2016. None of the targets named in the recording itself has been killed, and the dissident who leaked the recording claims that Western intelligence foiled the plans. German authorities aren't saying much about this story, but the news will again focus Europe's attention on abuses of power by the government of strongman President Alexander Lukashenko.
Ghanian parliament ruckus: The US Capitol building in Washington wasn't the only site of a violent political struggle this week. In Ghana, the army had to enter the chamber right before President Nana Akufo-Addo was to be inaugurated for his second term, after an opposition lawmaker noticed a colleague from the ruling party was snatching ballots for a vote to choose the next Speaker. That sparked a shouting and shoving match between rival MPs that was swiftly resolved by the soldiers, who took minutes to secure the legislature for Akufo-Addo's swearing in. Ghana is one of Africa's most stable democracies, but the last election was marred by violence, and resulted in a hung parliament, equally divided between lawmakers from the two main parties and with a lone independent. To make matters worse, the outcome of the vote was questioned by the opposition party, which lost the presidential race but now controls half of parliament. We're watching to see if after Wednesday's chaotic scene, both sides will learn to compromise so Ghana can move forward on key issues such as pandemic relief and recovery, as well reducing the nation's crippling debt burden.
What We’re Watching: Brexit endgame, Ghana’s election, China-India water war
The final act of Brexit: British Prime Minister Boris Johnson and European Commission President Ursula Von der Leyen agreed on Monday to meet in person in Brussels "in the coming days" in a last-ditch attempt to reach agreement on the post-Brexit relationship between the UK and the EU. One of the major outstanding issues is labor and environmental standards. Johnson's key supporters want as much autonomy as possible, while Brussels worries that if the UK adopts laxer protections (which cost less to obey), London could flood the EU with cheaper goods. Another (fish)bone of contention is the level of access that EU fishermen would have to British waters. If the two sides cannot get to yes this week, then we'd we well on our way to the feared "no deal" scenario in which the UK and EU, lacking a trade agreement, impose much higher tariffs on each other, potentially dealing a huge blow to economies on both sides of the English Channel.
Ghana's "battle of two giants": Ghanaians went to the polls Monday to elect a new parliament and president in a race dubbed the "battle of two giants," because it is the fourth electoral clash between President Nana Akufo-Addo and his opponent John Mahama, a former president himself. But while Akufo-Addo was elected four years ago promising to root out corruption, many say he has failed to tackle the problem, which is still endemic in Ghana's politics. Still, it's a stretch for Mahama to attack the current president over corruption, considering that Mahama himself left office amid accusations that he had accepted corporate kickbacks. Whoever prevails has his job cut out for him. Ghana has long been a beacon of democracy and peace in West Africa, but the nation is struggling to deal with its first economic contraction in four years, rising unemployment, and shortfalls in healthcare infrastructure and education.
India-China water war: Beijing and New Delhi have long been at loggerheads over a disputed border area in the Himalayan mountains, which led to massive skirmishes earlier this year. Now, the two Asian powers are battling it out over water. China says that it is building a hydroelectric project in one of the largest rivers in the world that it calls Yarlung Zangbo, but that the Indians call the Brahmaputra river. After Beijing announced the project, which could be Beijing's biggest hydropower project in history if it comes to pass, New Delhi said that Beijing's aggressive plans could have major implications for India's food and water security, and that it would give China too much power to use the crucial waterway as a "weapon." Indian officials also said they were considering a rival water project in the same waters, spanning from Arunachal Pradesh state to neighboring Bangladesh. Analysts say that things could quickly spiral out of control because the two powers have not honored a water-sharing agreement, which usually governs plans and discussions surrounding new water projects.