We have updated our Privacy Policy and Terms of Use for Eurasia Group and its affiliates, including GZERO Media, to clarify the types of data we collect, how we collect it, how we use data and with whom we share data. By using our website you consent to our Terms and Conditions and Privacy Policy, including the transfer of your personal data to the United States from your country of residence, and our use of cookies described in our Cookie Policy.
{{ subpage.title }}
Hard Numbers: Kim Jong Un takes aim, Pakistan launches deadly airstrikes, Sunak’s asylum-seeking plan proves costly, Oceans take the heat
186: Stop us if you’ve heard this one before: On Monday, North Korea responded to a visit to South Korea by US Secretary of State Antony Blinken by firing short-range ballistic missiles from Pyongyang an estimated 186 miles into the Sea of Japan. North Korea’s military has recently staged military maneuvers in response to annual US-South Korean joint drills.
8: Pakistan launched airstrikes on Monday on suspected hideouts of members of the Pakistani Taliban inside neighboring Afghanistan. Tensions are rising between Pakistan’s military and the Afghan Taliban, which claimed the attacks killed at least eight people.
292,000: A new report from the Institute for Public Policy Research argues that Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s plan to move asylum-seekers from the UK to Rwanda while their claims are evaluated could cost the British taxpayer $292,000 per person. Compare that with about 70,000 per person if migrants were allowed to remain in the UK during that period.
365: A research collaboration between the US National Atmospheric and Oceanic Administration and Climate Reanalyzer found that the world’s oceans have set global sea surface temperature records for 365 days in a row. That’s thought to be caused by climate change and this year’s El Nino weather pattern.Hard Numbers: SpaceX has a rocky reentry, Norway to hit NATO target early, British MPs are OOO, Somalia debt is canceled, Berlin techno is protected
2: Norway announced that the country intends to meet its NATO defense spending target of 2% this year — two years ahead of schedule — citing a “serious” security situation. Sweden, the alliance’s newest member, says it will do the same. The two Nordic states can now rest assured that at least Donald Trump would protect them from a Russian invasion.
49: A new analysis found the workday for members of UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s parliament is 49 minutes shorter than the 1997-2023 average, clocking in at only seven hours and nine minutes long. With all that extra time on their hands, Kate Middleton should be found in no time.
99: This week, 99% of Somalia’s debt was canceled by the Paris Club — a group of officials from major creditor countries including the United States, Japan, and Russia. Somalia’s information minister, Daud Aweis, called the move a “big milestone in the country’s journey to financial recovery.”
150: The number of UNESCO heritage sites in Germany rose to 150, with six entities being added this week. Notably, an Intangible Cultural Heritage designation was given to Berlin’s techno scene for its contribution to German culture. Oonts Oonts.Assange vs. America, again
The legal saga of WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange neared its end Monday as Britain's High Court considered his final appeal of a U.S. extradition request.
Facing 17 espionage charges and one for computer misuse over the 2010 publication of classified war documents, the Australian native asserts he acted as a journalist and is protected by the First Amendment. His supporters, including members of the Australian Parliament, have called for his release on legal and humanitarian grounds.
Why has this case dragged on so long? In 2012, Assange sought sanctuary in Ecuador's London embassy to avoid extradition to Sweden on rape charges. In 2019, Ecuador revoked asylum, and UK authorities detained Assange in Belmarsh Prison for bail evasion. While Sweden retracted its sex crimes accusations, the US filed espionage charges in 2019 and sought Assange’s extradition — a move he has resisted, citing suicide risks and declining health.
If convicted, the 52-year-old Assange faces a possible 175-year sentence, though American officials claim the figure would be much lower. Assange’s spouse Stella argues the case is a political witch hunt, asserting, “If he’s extradited, he will die.”
What’s next? The UK court will hear the case for two days. If it greenlights extradition, Assange’s legal team may try to get an emergency injunction from the European Court of Human Rights.Hard Numbers: Missiles hit Russian border city, ex-FBI informant in Biden bribe case faces charges, Gaza needs new ‘Marshall Plan,’ UK slips into recession, Bangkok’s air becomes unbreathable
7: At least seven people, including a one-year-old girl, were reportedly killed on Thursday by an apparent Ukrainian missile strike in Belgorod, the closest major Russian city to Ukraine. This is not the first time Belgorod has been targeted amid the Russia-Ukraine war – dozens were killed in a strike there last December, as Ukraine seeks to show that it can still strike Russia, even as Moscow’s forces slowly push forward the front lines in the Donbas. Meanwhile, the US warned that the eastern Ukrainian town of Avdiivka, which has seen some of the worst fighting recently, is at risk of falling into Russian control.
25: Alexander Smirnov, a former FBI informant, has been charged with lying about President Joe Biden and his son Hunter Biden accepting payments from Ukrainian energy firm Burisma Holdings. The US Justice Department said Smirnov gave the false statements because he disliked Biden. If convicted, Smirnov faces up to 25 years in jail.
20 billion: The damage from the war in Gaza so far is estimated to be roughly $20 billion, according to a UN trade body official. The estimate is based on satellite images, but for an exact number, there will need to be an on-the-ground investigation. The official said that the Las Vegas-sized Gaza strip will need a “Marshall Plan” of its own after the Israel-Hamas war, in reference to the US-led effort to rebuild Europe after World War II.
0.3: The UK economy fell into a recession at the end of 2023, dealing yet another blow to Prime Minister Rishi Sunak as he hopes for reelection in a vote widely expected later this year. Data released Thursday showed GDP fell 0.3% in the final three months of last year, after shrinking 0.1% in the previous quarter.
156: The air in Bangkok was so polluted on Thursday that city employees were ordered to work from home for two days, and private sector workers were strongly encouraged to do the same. How bad was it? The Thai capital’s Air Quality Index hit 156. When levels go above 100, it’s considered to be unhealthy for sensitive groups, while levels above 150 are dangerous for everyone.
King Charles undergoes cancer treatment
On Monday, King Charles III revealed he is battling cancer and will step back from public duties while undergoing treatment. The palace has not disclosed the type of cancer.
Charles became king in September 2022 following the death of his mother Queen Elizabeth II, who ruled for seven decades.
Breaking tradition: The royals are famously discreet when it comes to health matters. Charles’ grandfather George VI had his lung removed for supposed “structural abnormalities” that were actually carcinoma. George’s doctors withheld his diagnosis from the public and even the king himself.
In contrast, Charles has been open about his surgery for an enlarged prostate – which reportedly encouraged more Brits to seek checkups – and divulged his cancer treatment “to prevent speculation and in the hope it may assist public understanding for all those around the world who are affected by cancer.”
His eldest son and heir, William, has said he is resuming his public engagements – following his wife’s recent abdominal surgery – while his father is in treatment. Meanwhile, his estranged son, Harry, is returning to the UK to be with his father.
Northern Ireland names first Sinn Fein leader
After two long years, Northern Ireland once again has a functioning government – and in a historic move, it has named Michelle O’Neill as the first-ever First Minister from Sinn Fein. The party, which served as the political wing of the Irish Republican Army, won a majority of seats in the 2022 election.
The country’s unique “Good Friday Agreement” necessitates that unionists and nationalists share power, but that cooperation collapsed in 2022 over a dispute about post-Brexit trade rules with the EU. O’Neill will share power with Deputy Minister Emma Little-Pengelly, from the Democratic Unionist Party, which had dominated Northern Ireland’s politics for decades.
While the 47-year-old O’Neill favors the unity of the two Irelands, she downplayed that in the days leading to her appointment and pledged to continue “the work of reconciliation between all our people.” O’Neill’s father was imprisoned for IRA membership before transitioning to politics, but O’Neill herself is not an anti-monarchist, notably attending both Queen Elizabeth II’s funeral and the coronation of King Charles III last year.
Her government also has more pressing concerns: health care and cost-of-living issues. Nevertheless, O’Neill’s appointment gives hope to those who would like to one day see the two Irelands united.
Houthis threaten to retaliate after US, UK attacks
On Sunday, Houthi militants vowed to punish the United States and the United Kingdom for pounding Houthi targets on Saturday. A coalition of countries supported attacks on 36 targets across 13 locations in Yemen, including rebel strongholds in the capital Sanaa, as the conflict between Israel, Hamas, and its proxies continued to spread well beyond Gaza. US forces also took out an anti-ship missile that was set to be used in the Red Sea.
The governments of Iran, Iraq, and Syria issued condemnations, and Russia called for an urgent meeting of the UN Security Council in New York on Monday. Iran also warned the US not to target two cargo ships suspected of serving as forward operating bases for Iranian commandos.
What’s next? In an attempt to quell rising tensions, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken is visiting Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Qatar, Israel, and the West Bank between Sunday and Thursday. Blinken’s agenda includes the release of hostages held by Hamas, the establishment of a humanitarian pause in Gaza, and the safeguarding of maritime commerce in the Red Sea.
Graphic Truth: Trade across the pond
The UK has struggled to rebuild its trade relationships with partners across the pond post-Brexit. Since leaving the EU in 2020, new trade agreements with Canada or the US have stalled, forcing it to accept many of the same terms it had under the EU.
For Canada and the UK, the terms of their EU agreement expired at the end of 2023, leaving them in uncharted territory. Trade talks broke down over disagreements on cheese, beef, and the automotive industry. The two retreated to the EU terms after negotiators walked away from the table, but Canada still slapped a 245% tariff on British cheese, and the UK refused to budge on restricting hormones in beef, essentially barring both industries from each other's markets.
The UK has been striving and failing to secure a free trade agreement with the US. Last week, the UK’s business secretary blamed Washington’s reluctance to sign a free trade agreement for his country’s failure to hit post-Brexit trade targets. This was telling: Being free to forge its own free trade agreements was a major argument for Brexit. But the US is prioritizing specific deals in areas like semiconductors and critical minerals, and after negotiations fell apart with the UK in December, the Biden administration said it would not revisit the topic until after the 2024 elections.