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People inspect a damaged building after the Russian missile attack on the premises of the lyceum of the Interregional Academy of Personnel Management in Poltava, Ukraine.
Hard Numbers: Russian missile strike prompts fresh Kyiv calls for air defenses, Corruption makes African youth look abroad, Migrant boat capsizes in English Channel, Housing woes hit all-time highs in rich countries, US Marines assaulted in Turkey
51: A Russian ballistic missile strike on a military academy and a hospital in eastern Ukraine on Tuesday killed at least 51 people. After the attack, which occurred in the city of Poltava, about 200 miles from the front lines, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky renewed his call for Western allies to send more air defenses. Separately, the US and Ukraine are close to an agreement on the supply of long-range missiles.
60: How bad is corruption in African countries? Bad enough that 60% of the continent’s young people aged 18 to 24 want to leave because of it, according to a new study by the South Africa-based Ichikowitz Family Foundation. The top destination of choice was North America, followed by Western Europe.
12: At least 12 migrants are dead after their boat capsized in the English Channel en route from France to the UK on Tuesday. Last week, the French and British governments pledged to jointly crack down on the human trafficking networks that bring asylum-seekers across the channel in small boats.
50: The lack of affordable housing is a problem for at least 50% of people in the OECD, a group of nearly 40 wealthy democracies. That’s the highest level of dissatisfaction on record. A combination of high interest rates – which make home loans more expensive – and sluggish construction are to blame. In the US, housing costs are nearly 40% higher than when the Biden administration took office, making housing a key issue in the presidential election. See here for our special report on what Kamala Harris and Donald Trump have pledged to do about it.
2: Two US Marines were assaulted on Monday in Izmir, Turkey, by members of the Turkish Youth Union, a nationalist and anti-American youth organization. Police reportedly detained 15 people over the incident. A video of the altercation showed a group pushing and grabbing two men dressed in civilian clothes, and attempting to put a sack over one of their heads while chanting “Yankee, go home.” Police and other Marines in the area eventually intervened. The two Marines were taken to a hospital to be evaluated but were not injured and have returned to their ship, the USS Wasp.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu speaks during a news conference in Jerusalem, September 2, 2024.
UK suspends arms shipments to Israel over human rights concerns
The United Kingdom announced on Monday that it is suspending some arms shipments to Israel, citing a “clear risk” of violations of international humanitarian law in Gaza.
The decision was not based on military grounds but on the lack of food and medicine reaching the enclave, and what British Foreign Secretary David Lammy called “credible claims” of abuses of Palestinian prisoners. The suspension affects about 30 out of 350 arms export licenses, including parts for military aircraft, helicopters, drones, and ground-targeting equipment. It does not affect systems related to the F35 aircraft, crucial to Israel’s military advantage.
Lammysaid the UK still supported Israel’s right to self-defense and that Britain would continue to confront “Iranian aggression” across the Middle East. Israeli Foreign Minister Israel Katz, however, argued that the suspension sends a “problematic message” to Hamas and “its sponsors in Iran.” It could also encourage other countries to follow suit with similar suspensions.
The UK’s decision comes after a tumultuous two days of mass protests and a general strike in Israel following the discovery of six dead hostages in Gaza, including Hersh Goldberg-Polin, Eden Yerushalmi, Carmel Gat, Alexander Lobanov, Almog Sarusi, and Ori Danino. US President Joe Biden criticized Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Monday for not doing enough to secure a cease-fire that could have saved hostages’ lives. In an emotional televised address on Monday, Netanyahu begged Israelis “for your forgiveness” for not returning the hostages home alive but insisted that Israel must maintain control of the Philadelphi corridor, which he says Hamas uses to smuggle weapons into Gaza.
French President Emmanuel Macron and his wife Brigitte Macron welcome Britain's Prime Minister Keir Starmer as he arrives to attend a reception for heads of state and government at the Elysee Palace before the opening ceremony of the Paris 2024 Paralympic Games, in Paris, France August 28, 2024.
Keir Starmer “Bre-sets” UK’s relationship with Europe
The United Kingdom’s new Labour Prime Minister Keir Starmer promised to “turn a corner on Brexit” ahead of his quick European tour this week. Taking a jab at his Conservative predecessors — who campaigned for and managed the country’s divorce from the European Union — he vowed to “fix the broken relationships left behind by the previous government.”
Starmer arrived in Berlin on Wednesday to meet with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz. In a press conference, the leaders announced a plan for a new German-UK cooperation agreement modeled after a similar 2010 deal with France that deepens defense ties over the next 50 years. The new agreement will also target energy, science, technology, and migration coordination, as well as an increase in intelligence sharing. Both countries aim to sign the treaty by 2025.
Starmer does not plan to try to reverse the 2016 Brexit decision and has said Britain will not rejoin the EU in his lifetime.
Still, Scholz said Wednesday that he was “delighted” with the UK’s pivot back to Europe. “We want to grasp this outstretched hand,” he said.
After Berlin, Starmer headed to Paris for the Paralympics opening ceremony on Wednesday night and to meet with French President Emmanuel Macron on Thursday.Asylum seekers wait outside the foreign office in Brussels, Belgium.
Crackdowns against asylum-seekers gain momentum in Europe and the Americas
On both sides of the Atlantic, a range of countries adopted new measures to clamp down on asylum-seekers this week, amid rising concern about the political impacts of immigration.
Panama began US-funded deportation flights as part of an agreement with Washington to stem the flow of hundreds of thousands of people who transit the country annually en route to the US border. Immigration is the number-two top issue for US voters right now.
Brazil announced it will crack down on layovers who request asylum, after finding that many of them simply use refuge in Brazil as a jumping-off point for northward journeys to the US or Canada.
Hanging over all of this: Some 40% of Venezuelans say they may leave the country if Nicolas Maduro remains in power. Their exodus would exacerbate what is already the world’s largest external refugee crisis.
Across the pond, the UK, reeling from recent anti-immigrant violence, pledged a raft of new measures to stop asylum-seekers from coming, staying, or working in the country. Immigration is now the top issue for UK voters — the first time since the European immigration crisis of 2016, which helped fuel Brexit.
And Hungarian PM Viktor Orban took a page from Texas Gov. Greg Abbott’s book, promising one-way tickets to Brussels for undocumented migrants who arrive in Hungary. The threat comes after the EU fined Budapest for a strict border policy that is out of step with common EU rules.
UK far-right riots and Elon Musk's role
Carl Bildt, former prime minister of Sweden and co-chair of the European Council on Foreign Relations, shares his perspective on European politics from the Adriatic Sea.
What are the risks inherent in the fact that Elon Musk is de facto encouraging the right-wing thuggery that we see in the UK at the moment?
Well, I think the risks are, primarily, there for the reputation of Elon Musk. A lot of people have reacted against the fact that he's seen as de facto encouraging what is far-right violence and far-right thuggery. It's a difficult situation in the UK, and I think everyone, particularly those that have responsibility via social media, should try to make whatever they can to calm things down, not the other way around.
What’s going to be the likely effect of the Ukraine incursion into the Kursk region on the Russian war effort?
I think it's far too early to judge the nature of that particular attack or incursion. It's clearly something done with fairly qualified military units. It evidently caught the Russians by surprise, and it's fairly obvious that Putin is disturbed by it. But exactly what kind of military significance it will have one or two or three weeks down the line, that remains to be seen.
From Sunak to Starmer: What’s next for AI in the UK?
The guard has changed in Britain. For the first time in 14 years, the Labour Party is back in power, led by Prime Minister Keir Starmer, who took office on July 5.
Starmer was set to introduce a long-awaited artificial intelligence bill last Wednesday as part of the King’s Speech, in which Charles III read out the new government’s agenda. But the AI bill was pulled at last minute from the address for undisclosed reasons.
We’ll take a look at Labour’s agenda for potential AI legislation — what they’re planning, when it could come, and how their focus will differ from their Tory predecessors. But first, let’s examine Rishi Sunak’s legacy and whether he accomplished his goal of being a global leader on AI.
What did Sunak accomplish?
Sunak’s crowning moment was the AI Safety Summit in Bletchley Park on Nov. 1-2, 2023. The summit, held at the famed World War II codebreaking facility, was a global gathering on artificial intelligence safety aimed at international cooperation to deter AI’s worst-case scenarios from occurring. The Bletchley Declaration, the resulting document, was signed by the UK, the United States, and the European Union, but also, notably, China, along with two dozen other signatories. (And Sunak got to pal around with tech CEOs such as OpenAI’s Sam Altman, xAI’s Elon Musk, and DeepMind cofounder Mustafa Suleyman — who has since joined Microsoft.)
Bletchley was an important international agreement, but it also signaled that the UK’s leadership — under Sunak, at least — would be light-touch. He didn’t call for AI legislation, preferring to deploy Bletchley as a voluntary global corporate and government agreement.
Nick Reiners, a senior geotechnology analyst at Eurasia Group, said the hyperfocus on “existential risk” of AI is somewhat of a niche Silicon Valley obsession, a crowd that Sunak was interested in appeasing. “He saw AI as a way to build a legacy in a short time and this issue was something that animated him personally.”
What’s on deck for Labour?
Scott Bade, also a senior geotechnology analyst at Eurasia Group, doubts Starmer will follow Sunak’s lead on AI, but said he won’t throw away the standing that Sunak won for the country either. “Starmer does not have a signature global issue yet, and is unlikely to see AI as that issue,” Bade said. “But I'd be surprised if the UK didn’t keep showing up at the table to build on what Sunak did since this is the niche Britain now has in AI global governance. It will just be dialed down a peg or two.”
Compared with Sunak’s existentialist concerns, Starmer should be more focused on the short-term harms of artificial intelligence, Reiners said, citing workers’ rights and bias as examples. And with that comes the promise of actual legislation.
The bill that Labour was set to introduce would have reined in the most powerful large language models — but actual regulation seems to have been pushed off. In his speech, King Charles read off bills about cybersecurity as well as digital information, which seem to have won out over the AI bill, at least for now. “My suspicion is that they opted not to present this [AI regulation] now as they didn’t want to upset their growth narrative,” one tech leader told the Financial Times. Reiners said that departmental limits on parliamentary bills per session could be a constraint as well, and that AI was a lower priority.
When an AI bill is introduced, expect it to still be light-touch relative to the more expansive European AI Act. “I would say the UK is still generally respected as taking a thoughtful innovation-friendly approach to regulation in general,” Reiners noted.
The UK is home to successful AI startups such as Stability AI, maker of the image model Stable Diffusion, Google’s DeepMind lab, and the digital avatar company Synthesia, which we profiled in last week’s edition. And big AI-focused US tech companies, such as Microsoft and Salesforce have recently invested in the country. With the country’s economy on the ropes, Starmer’s challenge is to introduce legislative reforms that won’t totally scare off Big Tech.
Starmer's plan to boost UK economy will take some time
Carl Bildt, former prime minister of Sweden and co-chair of the European Council on Foreign Relations, shares his perspective on European politics from the Adriatic Sea.
How is Europe’s policy on Ukraine going to change if Trump arrives in the White House?
Well first, it is not going to change its fundamentals. You should know that the very first thing done by the newly elected European Parliament was to take a very strong and very broadly supportive resolution with very strong support for Ukraine. So what's going to happen is that, yes, Europe will continue that particular line, that it might be necessary. I think it will be necessary to further increase the financial support, the support that Europeans is already substantially higher than the Americans. But if the Americans diminish, reduce, stop, whatever Trump is going to do, then Europe clearly would have to step up even more.
How does Prime Minister Starmer's “renewal plan” make it possible to sort of make Britain great again?
Well, it's early days. It's clearly going to be economic policy that is somewhat more sort of interventionist in different ways. I think the important thing is that he wants to have a new start relationship with Europe. I think that's going to take some time, but I think it's going to have some effect. But, I don't think we will see any dramatic steps in the next few months anyhow. So it's early days.
Microsoft’s Inflection deal gets a closer look
The UK’s antitrust regulator is scrutinizing Microsoft’s unique relationship with Inflection AI. The PC giant did what some have called an “acqui-hire” — not buying the company outright, but rather hiring many of its former leaders and employees instead.
Microsoft poached the once-$4 billion startup’s co-founders Mustafa Suleyman and Karén Simonyan as well as “most of its staff.” It paid $650 million to license Inflection’s technology, which is how investors will get their returns. Now, the UK’s Competition and Markets Authority is looking at whether the deal is a “de facto merger,” a decision it’s expected to make by Sept. 11.
Microsoft is already facing scrutiny for its $13 billion investment in OpenAI in the US and UK, choosing to relinquish its non-voting board seat to stave off further criticism last week. We’re watching for how Microsoft fares in court, and whether it changes its tack in competing for the top talent and tech in AI development.