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Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu speaks during ‘Christian Conference’ in Jerusalem July 27, 2025.
What We’re Watching: Pressure mounts on Bibi, Ivorian leader announces another run, China’s top property firm to delist
Netanyahu faces the squeeze
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is coming under criticism from both sides of the political spectrum amid the desperate humanitarian situation in Gaza. Far-right US Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA) declared on Monday that Israel was committing genocide in the enclave, while center-left UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer said Tuesday he’d recognize Palestinian statehood unless Israel met certain conditions by September. Given the importance of Israel’s relationship with the US, Netanyahu will be far more concerned about whether MAGA figures are distancing from Israel, as well as a Gallup poll that showed just 32% of Americans approve of Israel’s military action in Gaza (down from 50% at the start of the war).
Ivorian leader announces he’s running for fourth term
After winning a third term in 2020, Côte d'Ivoire’s President Alassane Ouattara hinted that he wouldn’t run again. Five years on, the 83-year-old has changed his mind, announcing another run and starting the race in pole position – the election is on October 25. Located on Africa’s West Coast, Côte d'Ivoire is home to over 30 million people and is the world’s top producer of cocoa. Its economy has been booming lately, but there has also been political unrest: Ouattara’s decision to run for a third term angered many, and he had to deny widespread – and false – rumors of a coup earlier this year.Embattled Chinese property developer to be delisted
The troubles continue for Evergrande, once one of China’s largest property developers. After being ordered into liquidation earlier this year, the firm will be delisted from Hong Kong’s stock exchange after failing to produce a viable plan to restructure $23 billion in offshore debt. Evergrande’s stunning collapse has become a symbol of China’s broader economic slowdown as consumer demand weakens, the workforce shrinks, and debt climbs.
India Prime Minister Narendra Modi meets UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer as they sign a free trade agreement at the Chequers Estate, United Kingdom, on July 24, 2025.
Hard Numbers: UK-India trade deal signed, Zelensky backs down on anti-corruption move, Columbia settles with Trump, Togo protests escalate, & Trump’s name reportedly makes an Epstein file cameo
£6 billion: India and the United Kingdom formally signed a trade deal worth £6 billion ($8.1 billion). Under the deal, first announced in May, India will drop its tariffs on UK cars and whisky imports, while the UK will reduce barriers to imports of Indian textiles and jewelry. The agreement also includes efforts to tackle illegal migration.
2: After two days of protests in Kyiv against a government decision to subsume independent anti-corruption bodies, President Volodymyr Zelensky appeared to retreat on the move, approving new legislation that would preserve these agencies’ independence. Zelensky’s decision came after he received advice on the matter from UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer.
5: At least five demonstrators have died in Togo in recent weeks amid protests against long-time leader Faure Gnassingbé’s successful effort to circumvent constitutional term limits and remain in power. The Togolese leader had occupied the role of president, but has now adopted a new role as the all-powerful prime minister. More protests are expected Friday.
$221 million: Columbia University will pay fines of $221 million in a settlement with the Trump administration over allegations that the school failed to prevent the harassment of Jewish students. The elite school also pledged to stop using race as a factor in admissions and hiring. In exchange, the government will restore hundreds of millions of dollars in suspended research funding.
300: President Donald Trump’s name reportedly appears somewhere in the Justice Department’s 300 gigabyte trove of Jeffery Epstein investigation documents and, according to the Wall Street Journal, Trump knows it, having heard directly from Attorney General Pam Bondi in May. Separately, DOJ officials are interviewing Epstein sidekick Ghislaine Maxwell in Florida today.Riot police officers fire tear gas canisters to disperse demonstrators during anti-government protests dubbed “Saba Saba People’s March,” in the Rift Valley town of Nakuru, Kenya, on July 7, 2025.
What We’re Watching: Kenya’s president cracks down further, UK and France open an atomic umbrella, Trump meddles in Brazil
Ruto orders police to shoot looters as Kenya protest escalate
Amid ongoing anti-government protests, Kenyan President William Ruto has ordered police to shoot looters in the legs. The order is meant to stop attacks on businesses, but could lead to more casualties after 31 people were killed on Monday alone. The youth-led protesters want Ruto to resign over high taxes, corruption allegations, and police brutality. According to Mercy Kaburu, a professor of international relations at United States International University in Nairobi, Ruto’s government “is not at risk of collapse before the next general election” which is set for 2027. But, she cautions, he “could be threatened if nothing changes.”
United Kingdom and France to open their nuclear umbrella
UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer and French President Emmanuel Macron signed a landmark deal aimed Thursday at restricting the flow of migrants across the English Channel. But the cross-channel agreement that may draw more attention globally is a pledge from Europe’s only two nuclear-armed nations to extend their nuclear umbrellas to allies on the continent who face an “extreme threat.” This is a big step toward “common European defense” at a time when Russia’s ongoing invasion of Ukraine and uncertainty about the US long-term commitment to NATO have prompted more urgent action in Europe.
Trump uses tariffs to meddle in Brazil
US President Donald Trump announced Wednesday that the US will slap 50% on Brazil starting on August 1. The reason? Trump blasted Brazil for its “unfair” treatment of former President Jair Bolsonaro, a rightwing firebrand and close Trump ally who is currently on trial for allegedly plotting to overturn the 2022 Brazilian election. Trump also cited an “unsustainable” US trade deficit with Brazil, though official data show the US actually runs a small trade surplus with Latin America’s largest economy. Brazil’s leftwing President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, reportedly blindsided by the announcement, has vowed to respond with reciprocal measures.
See below for Ian Bremmer’s Quick Take on what Trump’s move really means.
Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves (right) crying as Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer speaks during Prime Minister’s Questions in the House of Commons, London, United Kingdom, on July 2, 2025.
UK PM’s freefall is a warning to centrists
A week is a long time in politics, so the expression goes. A year? Well that must feel like a lifetime – especially for UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer.
It was just over one year ago that Starmer took up residence at 10 Downing Street. With a 174-seat majority in parliament, and the opposition Conservatives in shambles after their worst election ever, the new Labour PM seemed ready to hit the ground running with a center-left agenda of better healthcare, lower immigration, and economic growth that benefits everyone.
He’s stumbled out of the starting blocks.
Just last week Starmer suffered a ringing defeat on a key agenda item, failing to pass welfare reforms that would have saved a mere £5.5 billion ($7.5 billion) by 2030 – just a small fraction of the overall government deficit. Members of the prime minister’s own party had objected to the cuts to disability benefits. To make matters worse, Starmer’s Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves was seen crying in the House of Commons after the government had to gut key provisions of the legislation.
The debacle reflected larger problems for the prosecutor-turned-politician. Starmer has failed to revive the UK’s long-sputtering economy, struggled to make good on a promise to stop illegal migrant crossings by boat from mainland Europe (they are actually rising), and had little-to-no effect on long waits for National Health Service appointments and treatments. These issues have overshadowed the prime minister’s successes elsewhere, notably the trade deals with the US and India.
The result: the Labour Party is now polling at just 24%, and Starmer’s net approval rating is a crushing -40.
“I think of him more as a barrister than a politician,” Lord Gavin Barwell, who was former Prime Minister Theresa May’s chief of staff, told GZERO. “You deal with issues sequentially, like a barrister deals with one case at a time, [but then] you don’t have any kind of overall narrative about what the government is for.”
To be fair to Starmer, he inherited some of his troubles from his predecessors. The UK’s challenging fiscal situation and the turbulent international environment would be hard for any prime minister to address within a year. What’s more, while the Conservatives are in the wilderness, there is a resurgent opposition group in the form of Nigel Farage’s nativist Reform UK. It is now polling ahead of both Labour and the Tories, the two parties that have held a duopoly on power in the UK for nearly a century.
Even so, the prime minister has often been his own worst enemy. Polling data from the opinion-research firm Early Studies suggests the government’s priorities haven’t aligned with those of the voters, especially when it comes to cost of living – 15% of voters said it’s their top concern, making it the biggest singular issue of all, yet it attracts just 1% of parliamentary attention. What’s more, Starmer’s communication with Labour backbenchers has been lacking, so rebellions – like the one on the welfare bill – occur more frequently than they should.
“I've heard from a few Labour MPs that they've never spoken to him,” says Jon Nash, a fellow at the London-based think tank Demos. “It does feel like there’s a bad level of organization within the party.”
Ominous signs for centrists. Starmer’s struggles highlight a broader issue that centrist parties across the world face: they tend to work too methodically and timidly within a system that a growing number of voters think is broken, all-the-while focusing on short-term issues while glossing over longer-term ones. The Tony Blair Institute for Global Change conducts focus groups in most major Western democracies, and has found that the public’s frustrations are broad-based.
“There are these deep systemic trends where basically, voters and non-voters alike, just feel that around them is this pervasive sense of decline,” Ryan Wain, an executive director at TBI, told GZERO. “It’s mainstream politics’s job – I include the center-right in that, as well as the center left – to arrest and reverse that decline.”
And if centrist parties don’t reverse that decline, others are waiting in the wings to take their place, says Jon Nash of Demos.
“That inability to get anything done is what opens up the door to others coming along and saying, ‘Look, we’re going to do things differently. Vote for me, I’m a businessman,’ or, ‘vote for me, I’ll do something radical.’”
UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer speaks on the phone to US President Donald Trump at a car factory in the West Midlands, United Kingdom, on May 8, 2025.
US-UK trade deal a victory for Starmer, with some caveats
When President Donald Trump announced a trade deal that will reduce US tariffs on UK cars and plane engines in return for greater access to the British market for American beef and chemicals, he singled out Prime Minister Keir Starmer for praise.
“The US and UK have been working for years to try and make a deal, and it never quite got there,” said Trump. “It did with this prime minister.”
The president’s comment twisted the knife into the UK Conservative Party, which tried — and failed — to achieve a trade deal with the Americans during its 14 years in power. It took Starmer, the Labour leader, to finally clinch the deal less than a year after entering office.
Starmer isn’t the only winner. Brexiteers cited the prospect of a US trade deal to further justify exiting the European Union. The deal caps a stellar week for Reform UK leader Nigel Farage, after his party made extraordinary strides in the local UK elections last Thursday.
There’s a caveat. The scope of the deal was somewhat limited, with many goods still subject to the 10% tariff — Trump said this rate was “pretty well set.” The UK tariff rate appears to have dropped, while the US one has risen, although the White House numbers can sometimes be off.
What’s Trump’s strategy? With this deal — the first the US has made since “Liberation Day” — it’s not clear whether the president’s main goal is protectionism or winning concessions from America’s allies.
The US did nab some wins from the pact, including access to UK meat markets, but they inked it with a country with which they already have a trade surplus. Trump thus achieved both of these goals, making it unclear where his priority lies.UK Secretary of State for Business and Trade Jonathan Reynolds meets Indian Minister of Commerce and Industry Piyush Goyal for trade talks, in London, United Kingdom, on April 28, 2025.
UK, India finally cinch trade deal
The United Kingdom on Tuesday sealed its largest trade deal since leaving the European Union, inking a pact with India in a big political win for Prime Minister Keir Starmer.
The highlights: drink and drive. India’s tariffs on UK whisky and gin will halve from 150% to 75%, before falling to 40% over the next decade. Levies on UK auto products will also plummet from 100% to 10%, albeit with some quotas in place. The UK, in turn, will slash tariffs on Indian clothing, foodstuffs, and jewels.
UK-India trade surpassed $50 billion last year, and the deal is projected to add $35 billion a year by 2040.
Starmer succeeds where Sunak failed. Former PM Rishi Sunak had tried desperately to clinch a deal with India during his 20-month premiership.
The migration angle. The pact exempts Indians on short-term UK visas from paying social security taxes for three years – the UK right is already mad about that.
Mujtaba Rahman, Eurasia Group’s managing director of Europe, said the deal is “welcome news” for the UK government.
“However, the real test for Keir Starmer will be how far he can dismantle the trade friction with the UK’s biggest trading partner – the EU,” Rahman added. “That will require a bolder approach than we have seen so far.”
Street vendors stand on a pirogue with goods to be sold at Kituku market, on the bank of Lake Kivu, in Goma, which is controlled by M23 rebels, in North Kivu province of the Democratic Republic of Congo March 21, 2025.
Small Country, Big Story: How Rwanda’s trying to woo Washington
As Western nations adopt increasingly hardline stances on migration, Rwanda has positioned itself to capitalize on these concerns by offering to accept deportees in exchange for payment.
In 2022, then-UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson struck a $385 million deal with Rwanda to house and process thousands of asylum-seekers. The controversial plan ultimately cost British taxpayers an estimated $949 million before it was scrapped in 2024 by Prime Minister Keir Starmer, following two years of legal challenges and widespread criticism over Rwanda’s status as an unsafe destination for migrants. The UK received no refund.
Now, with the Trump administration intensifying its crackdown on migration, Rwanda is exploring a similar arrangement with the United States. The potential deal comes as the White House faces mounting scrutiny for a series of hardline measures, including the high-profile deportation of 238 immigrants to a maximum-security prison in El Salvador, proposals to reopen Alcatraz and Guantanamo Bay as detention sites, and even offering migrants $1,000 to voluntarily leave the country.
But for Rwanda, there’s more to gain than just money. These talks are unfolding as the US increasingly takes on the role of power broker in the simmering conflict between Rwanda and its neighbor, the Democratic Republic of Congo. Over the past year, Rwanda has backed the M23 rebel group, helping it seize control of vast territories in the DRC’s mineral-rich eastern provinces — home to an estimated $20 trillion in untapped natural resources.
The United Nations has labeled M23 a proxy force for Rwanda, accusing the group of being led by Rwandan officers and armed by the Rwandan military. President Paul Kagame has repeatedly denied any support for M23. Yet, according to numerous intelligence analysts, diplomats, researchers, and humanitarian workers, the presence of thousands of Rwandan troops in Goma and elsewhere in eastern Congo leaves little doubt about Rwanda’s role.
M23’s gains have included the capture of key mining hubs, giving the group control over significant reserves of gold, cobalt, and coltan – a mineral critical to the production of smartphones, medical devices, and explosives.
The US is now weighing a critical minerals agreement with the DRC, under which American companies would gain access to Congolese mines in exchange for helping secure the region against rebel forces. Washington has a strong incentive to expand its footprint in the DRC to counter China’s growing dominance: Chinese firms already hold a major share of mining contracts in the country, and the DRC produces roughly 70% of the world’s cobalt – a vital component of electric vehicle batteries. The world’s largest cobalt mine, located in DRC, is operated by a Chinese company.
As the US and other international actors broker peace talks between M23 and Rwanda, both sides are maneuvering for leverage. While the DRC courts American support by offering access to critical minerals, Rwanda may be betting that a migration deal with Washington could bolster its standing in the region.
UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer meets with US President Donald Trump alongside US Vice President JD Vance and UK Foreign Secretary David Lammy in the Oval Office at the White House on February 27, 2025, in Washington, D.C., USA.
Vance ignites hope of much-coveted US-UK trade deal
The US trade deal that London has been chasing for years is closer to reality now, after US Vice President JD Vance told UnHerd on Monday that there is a “good chance” that an agreement is possible.
UK Business and Trade Minister Sarah Jones also said the negotiations are in a “good position,” but refused to divulge any timeline.
One major reported focus of the talks is the UK cutting its “tech tax” on the revenues of major digital firms in return for lower tariffs, although the sides are reportedly negotiating terms that go beyond this.
Back to being “special.” The United Kingdom escaped Trump’s “liberation day” with only the Administration’s general 10% tariff, albeit only because the UK doesn’t have a trade surplus with the US. A free trade deal would leave few or no tariffs on its US-bound exports.
A win for a Remainer and the Brexiteers. A trade pact would mark a big victory for UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer — his predecessors have failed to land a deal ever since Britain voted to leave the European Union in 2016. The idea was to replace the UK’s continental trade partners with the US, the world’s largest consumer market. Pro-Brexit politicians like Nigel Farage had long promised that Brexit would result in just such a US trade accord.
The irony: it’s finally within sight, thanks, no less, to Starmer, a prominent Remainer.