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India's PM is trying to avoid siding too closely with anyone these days, but Vladimir Putin, Joe Biden, and Boris Johnson won't leave him alone.
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With Marcos Jr. about to win the presidency, how will his leadership change the Philippines? Sri Lanka's prime minister resigned. Will its president be next? Is Sinn Féin's victory a sign that a united Ireland is closer? Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week on World In :60.
With Marcos Jr. about to win the presidency, how will his leadership change the Philippines?
Well, it was a big win, almost 30 points over his opponent, and the first time we've seen an absolute majority in Philippines history for the presidency. Not huge changes expected in governance. Let's keep in mind that the vice president is actually the daughter of President Duterte, who's just leaving power. The president and the vice presidents here are actually... Those elections are held separately, and so you can have different parties that actually win, and frequently do, which is sort of an unusual twist to the Philippines. Pro-foreign direct investment, generally pro-markets, a little bit more of a US and Western tilt as opposed to Duterte, whose military really was skeptical of China, but he personally was more engaged with Beijing. The big question is what's the cabinet going to look like, how independent, how technocratic, or is there going to be a lot of corruption, a lot of kleptocracy? Keeping in mind that Bongbong, the new president, is the son of Ferdinand and Imelda Marcos, who were drummed out for an extraordinary abuse of power in the Philippines before. So what everyone's going to be watching.
Sri Lanka's prime minister resigned. Will its president be next?
Well, I mean, since we're talking about kleptocracy, let's keep in mind that the president is the younger brother of the now resigned prime minister, and they've let go a bunch of... You've got the ministers of finance that have been sort of a revolving door recently. This is the worst economic crisis of Sri Lanka's history. And it's led to a lot of demonstrations, mass protests, a lot of violence, and that's why the PM is gone. But there's also a state of emergency. The military, the police are out in force, the president clearly trying his damnedest to avoid having to step down. And the real question is going to be how explosive the situation on the ground is. Could this become sort of a mass-driven coup, and might you see some splits in the military as a consequence of that?
Is Sinn Féin's victory a sign that a united Ireland is closer?
Well, yeah, of course it's closer in the sense that you now have a party, a Catholic party, that's won for the first time, more history, in Northern Ireland that is interested in a unionist position on Ireland. And Brexit of course did set this off, but a strong majority of citizens in Northern Ireland do not support even a referendum on unification, and certainly don't support unification, though Sinn Féin has said that they'd like to have such a vote within five years. More importantly is that this is going to be used, the Sinn Féin victory, by Boris Johnson and his Tory government to push for changing the rules agreed with the European Union in the breakup, on the border between Northern Ireland and Ireland, Northern Ireland and Europe. And that has the potential to really disrupt, further disrupt, UK-EU trade over the course of the next 12 months. So in the near-term, that's the problem. In the long-term, no question there's more pressure on political devolution and disillusion in the not so United Kingdom.
A man walks past Sinn Fein election posters along the nationalist Falls Road in Belfast.
On Thursday, voters across the UK head to the polls for local elections, but it’s the contest in Northern Ireland that might make history. Sinn Féin is expected to finish with the most seats in Northern Ireland’s assembly. Its victory would be more symbolic than immediately substantive, since power in the assembly must be shared between the two lead parties, and Sinn Féin has focused its campaign on today’s economic hardship, not on a century of Irish partition. But the symbolism matters. A Sinn Féin win would mark the first time in Northern Ireland’s 101-year history that the UK province is led by a party that supports reunification with the Republic of Ireland, an EU member state. It would make Sinn Féin the most popular party on both sides of the Irish border. And it would prove deeply embarrassing for UK PM Boris Johnson, who is fighting for his scandal-plagued political life at the moment and considering another battle with the European Union over Northern Ireland’s place in the EU’s single market.
To keep one’s political allies onside, it helps to have the right enemies. Especially when one is in trouble. And Prime Minister Boris Johnson is in serious trouble. The scandal resulting from his attendance at parties during COVID lockdowns and from the perception that he lied about it has taken a toll on Johnson’s popularity. His aggressive support for Ukraine against Russian invaders hasn’t done enough to boost his support.
For now, says Eurasia Group Europe expert Mujtaba Rahman, “a silent majority within Johnson’s Conservative Party refuse to support him but have not yet decided to try to oust him.” Johnson might survive if he makes it to summer without a leadership challenge. But, “a growing number of critics within his party believe the crunch moment is coming sooner than that,” warns Rahman.
Crunch time may begin next Thursday, May 5, after votes are counted from local elections across the UK. The results will be widely judged as a referendum on Johnson’s government, and poor Conservative Party performance could push him to the edge of a political cliff.
One of the most highly anticipated local votes will unfold in Northern Ireland, where the latest polls suggest Sinn Féin will win the most seats for the first time in the assembly’s history. If so, the importance will be less practical than symbolic. The party that comes first must share power with rivals, and Sinn Féin has based its campaign more on pocketbook issues than on its long-term support for Irish reunification. But with the Scottish National Party holding its dominant position in Scotland, a Sinn Féin win would, for the first time, see the legislatures of both Scotland and Northern Ireland led by parties that are seeking an exit from the United Kingdom.
And that might be embarrassing enough for the government to persuade reluctant Tories to send Boris Johnson packing. To avoid that fate, the prime minister looks set to pick a fight with his favorite foil: Brussels. That’s why, Rahman warns, “the risk of a major UK-EU dispute over the Northern Ireland Protocol is on the rise.”
The protocol, you might remember, is the arrangement that Johnson’s government agreed to with the EU that effectively created a customs border in the Irish Sea for goods traveling between Britain, Northern Ireland, and the EU. Its purpose was to avoid the re-establishment of a hard border between the Republic of Ireland, still an EU member, and Northern Ireland, a part of the UK. Johnson says the deal was meant to be temporary, but there is still no clear way of fixing the problem it was meant to solve.
Johnson’s government is now drafting a law that would give UK officials the power to override that part of the Brexit deal, challenging the EU to either renegotiate or try to solve the border problem itself. Critics charge that such a move would violate international law. “Even the threat of legislation will be judged incendiary by the EU,” says Rahman.
Will this maneuver save Johnson’s political career? Probably not. He promised before the last election to “get Brexit done.” Another fight with the EU, particularly at a moment when many consider Western unity in response to Russia’s war in Ukraine to be critical, won’t score him enough points with fed-up former allies within his party.
More to the point, another fight with his favorite villains – European bureaucrats and anti-Brexit rivals at home – probably isn’t enough to distract voters from the economic headaches and personal scandals that have kept Johnson’s job approval below 30% for the past six months.
But that doesn’t mean he won’t give it a go.British Prime Minister Boris Johnson
Few politicians have benefited as much from the war in Ukraine as British PM Boris Johnson, who was facing potentially career-ending crises before the Russian invasion. Chief among them was “partygate,” the scandal over him and his staff attending social gatherings during COVID lockdowns. Johnson was fined for the breach — a legal first for a sitting PM — but his pro-Ukraine advocacy has helped galvanize Brits who are now more concerned by Russian aggression, as well as the rising cost of living. So is Johnson out of the woods? Not quite. Labour Party leader Keir Starmer has called for a vote in the House of Commons Thursday on whether a special committee should investigate claims that Johnson misled parliament. British ministerial code dictates that MPs caught lying are expected to resign. The person who usually enforces this rule is … the PM, but Johnson says he has no intention of stepping down, and it’s unlikely enough Tory lawmakers would back his ouster. Still, the optics are poor for the Conservative Party: MPs will have to go on the record in support of a PM who has a disapproval rating of 65%.
Doors in China’s largest city are reopening. On Wednesday, Shanghai officials further relaxed lockdown restrictions, claiming that COVID-19 was “under effective control” for the first time in some areas. Almost half of Shanghai's 25 million residents will now be able to leave their homes following a three-week lockdown, although some must stay in their neighborhoods, and large gatherings remain verboten. The lockdown has been as frustrating for residents as it has been for China's economy, which the IMF now predicts will grow by only 4.4% this year. That’s 1.1 percentage points lower than the earlier target set by the ruling Communist Party. So, was zero-COVID worth it in Shanghai? Critics of the policy question whether 17 deaths from the virus justify the harsh restrictions. But there's a counter-argument: Shenzhen locked down when per capita infection rates were much lower than in Shanghai, and it went back to normal sooner and with somewhat less economic pain.
The leader of Ukrainian fighters holed up in the strategic port city’s massive steel plant, their last redoubt, said Wednesday that he and his men were badly outnumbered, low on supplies, and interested in being spirited away to a safe, third country. Meanwhile, a planned evacuation of civilians from the besieged and wrecked city reportedly failed after Ukraine accused Russia of violating a humanitarian ceasefire meant to allow thousands to leave. The overall number of refugees fleeing Ukraine has now surpassed 5 million, according to the UN, with more than 7 million displaced inside the country. With heavy fighting erupting across the Donbas amid Russia’s renewed offensive there, those numbers are expected to rise.
Meanwhile, as Russia-NATO tensions continue to simmer, Russia successfully tested a new intercontinental ballistic missile on Wednesday, which Putin said would make Moscow’s adversaries “think twice” about messing with the Kremlin. The Sarmat missile can carry 10 warheads and is capable of evading “all” missile defenses, Putin said. The editor of Russia’s main defense publication said the weapon could “put an end to the history of any country” that threatens Russia.
For early birds: Be sure to catch Signal writer Alex Kliment, a perpetually recovering Russia analyst, on CBS on Thursday around 7 a.m. EST. He’ll be discussing the latest in Ukraine.
With energy prices soaring, Boris Johnson and Joe Biden are turning to some dodgy friends for help.
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British PM Boris Johnson leaves 10 Downing Street for PMQs at the House of Commons on February 02, 2022 in London, England.
Getting to 54. Boris Johnson is the famous comeback kid of British politics. But he may be running out of options given his myriad scandals. A wave of high-profile resignations and defections within the Conservative Party and the departure of five senior staffers have increased the likelihood that the embattled PM will soon face a no-confidence vote. Tory MPs who’ve soured on Johnson believe they are only a dozen signed letters away from the 54 needed to trigger the process as early as this week. Meanwhile, there’s growing pressure to release an unredacted version of the Gray Report about multiple parties held at 10 Downing Street during COVID lockdowns. If the full report confirms Johnson lied to parliament about attending one of the parties, expect a lot more than 54 votes to give him a pink slip.
Tunisian judicial independence. President Kaïs Saïed has announced plans to dissolve the independent judicial watchdog in Tunisia, the only country to emerge from the Arab Spring as a democracy. Saïed claims the Supreme Judicial Council is biased and corrupt, but opponents say he is going too far this time in a bid to consolidate his power. On Sunday, the streets of Tunis saw rival protests between Saïed supporters and critics. The president — known as “Robocop” for his monotone speech — earlier called a constitutional referendum for July 25, the one-year anniversary of his takeover. Although that intervention was welcomed by many Tunisians tired of corruption and mismanagement, getting rid of independent judges gives fodder to those who resent Saïed’s authoritarian turn.
COVID-19 positive cases leading up to the Beijing Olympics, a proposed defense pact between Ukraine, Poland, and the UK, and the Joe Rogan/Spotify scandal -- Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week on World In :60.
First, how is COVID-19 affecting Beijing Olympics prep in China?
Well, we've got already well over a hundred members of Olympic athletes and staff that have tested positive twice, which means they ain't playing. They're not involved. They're going to go home. And these numbers are going to go way up. I do think that this idea of a complete closed loop system, the Chinese have more ability to implement and execute on that than pretty much any country in the world. So I doubt you're going to see spread from the Olympics into the broader population, but you're going to see a lot of people with COVID coming in because omicron is so incredibly spreadable. And that's going to be yet one more thing that dings a very weird Beijing Olympics with diplomatic boycotts and populations unhappy about where we are and not having fans and all the political challenges and censorship and surveillance of phones and data going to the government. And it's just so politicized that you hate to see that with global athletes, and global athletics, but that's where we are. I do say that I'm glad that the athletes are still competing. It's one of the few things that can bring us all together on this planet.
What's the update with the Russia-Ukraine crisis?
Well, the interesting thing that came out is this early stage announcement that there's a defense pact going to come between Poland, the UK and Ukraine. I understand Poland, because Poland of course sees themself as frontline, most vulnerable to the Russians, and if the Ukrainians go, what happens to us? But in the case of the UK, either there's not much to this and we'll see that it's not really a defense pact, or there is something to it, and it's a complete desperation move by Boris Johnson, who is in his last sort of gasp as prime minister, having screwed up just about everything over the last few months, get caught in lies and getting whacked by his own party members. Former PM Theresa May just took a chunk out of his hide yesterday and was applauded roundly. We'll see. If they actually are saying that they would come to Ukraine's defense if there were any Russian incursion, there's no way that was brought up with the Americans in advance. The US would not have approved that. And I think the UK's going to come in for great criticism. But watch very carefully what comes out here, okay.
Finally, Joe Rogan and Spotify, who's right, who's wrong?
It's a tough situation in the sense that he's a pretty controversial character and he's had some people online that spout lots of information that's not really good. But he does try to bring on people from all different political walks of life, some of whom I like, some of whom I think are kind of fringe and wacko. I do think you have more responsibility about the fringe people when you have that kind of an audience, because it does actually have a real impact. But I also take Joe Rogan on board when he says that there were a lot of things that used to be described as disinformation and you could be de platformed for it, and that's no longer the case. In the case of wearing masks, I mean, that's because we needed those masks for frontline workers. I understand why it was messaged the way it was at the time was for the best in terms of public safety. When it comes to denials and literally calling out as fake news the idea that COVID came from a lab in Wuhan, not intentionally, but escaped from it, I mean that honestly was misinformation and it was covering up from scientists and doctors that have done their field a disservice and have undermined themselves. And I do worry about that and I'm glad that Rogan mentioned it. So look, I don't think a lot of people are going to change their mind on Rogan on the base of this, but I will say that he's not going anywhere. And if you're his fan, you're probably still his fan and he's going to keep on keeping on for Spotify.
