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President Joe Biden speaks at a Holocaust remembrance ceremony at the US Capitol on May 7, 2024.
Biden’s “ironclad” support for Israel faces its sternest test
President Joe Biden has what appears to be a political mission impossible: finding a thread that unites the pearls of Democrat support over the war in Gaza.
The Israeli military has started pushing into Rafah, despite US warnings against ground operations. That will exacerbate political strains at home for Biden as he tries to hold together his coalition of forceful progressives, who are critical of Israel, and steadfast moderates, who support the Jewish state.
Eurasia Group US Director Clayton Allen said the decision to delay delivery of some offensive weapons, specifically systems that would be utilized in an expanded offensive in Rafah, while at the same time leaning into his public statements of support for Israel, reinforced the untenable nature of the U.S. position.
“Trying to leverage Netanyahu into moderating his military plans, while publicly embracing him, is challenging at the best of times,” he said.
These are not the best of times.
Biden’s claim that his commitment to Israel is “ironclad” has pitted the White House
against the progressive wing of the party. That commitment has sounded less and less rigid as the death toll in Gaza has risen. A Gallup poll in March suggested 75% of Democrats disapprove of the Israeli military action in Gaza. Biden has become critical of Israeli mistakes but without tangible consequences.
In fact, a CNN interview on Wednesday showed Biden acknowledging that US weapons shipments had been used to kill civilians in Gaza, and the president explained that he would stop some shipments moving forward.
Still, Allen thinks overall aid is unlikely to be meaningfully curtailed, despite this week’s decision to delay the delivery of some systems. “Biden's strategy is to hope for a deal that doesn’t force him to follow through on the threats he’s making to make it happen,” he said.
Biden had hoped the threats would be enough to force an Israeli rethink on Rafah, but that has not happened. Still, “Biden doesn't want to follow through on it: He’s getting hammered by the GOP, most US voters support Israel, and long-term US-Israeli alignment is a key part of US strategy,” Allen added.
But if the “counter-terrorism” operation in Rafah turns into a fully-fledged assault, the pressure to act could become irresistible. When three-quarters of your supporters don’t back your position on a pivotal issue, it tends to sap party unity. Biden can ill afford that kind of rift as November’s election creeps ever closer.
US President Joe Biden attends a meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu during his visit to Israel last October.
Biden’s criticism of Israel overshadowed by military aid
Trudeau called the deaths “unacceptable” and said the “world needs very clear answers as to how this happened.” Canada is calling for a full investigation into the incident, and its top diplomat, Mélanie Joly, says Israel needs to respect international law.
"This conflict has been one of the worst in recent memory in terms of how many aid workers have been killed," Biden said. "This is a major reason why distributing humanitarian aid in Gaza has been so difficult — because Israel has not done enough to protect aid workers trying to deliver desperately needed help to civilians.”
These words marked some of the harshest criticism of Israel from Biden since the Hamas attacks on Oct. 7. But even as Biden urges Israel to do more to protect civilians, his administration continues to supply the Jewish State with arms.
Even as tensions grew between the White House and Netanyahu over his plans to invade Rafah, the Biden administration authorized the transfer of thousands of bombs to Israel last month – including 1,800 MK84 2,000-pound bombs – as well as 25 F-35A fighter jets and engines. The administration is now urging Congress to approve the sale of $18 billion worth of F-15 fighter jets to Israel.
Biden’s balancing act. There’s a disconnect between Biden’s increasingly sharp criticism of Israel and his resistance to calls for changes in US policy toward the Jewish State. A number of prominent Democrats are urging the US to condition military aid to Israel, as words have not been enough to shift Netanyahu’s approach to Gaza so far. But Biden is seemingly reluctant to embrace drastic shifts in policy, even as he faces criticism from progressives, likely because he wants to avoid angering pro-Israel voters and lawmakers. He’s also been a strong supporter of Israel throughout his long career in Washington, and the US-Israel relationship is likely to remain robust long after the Gaza war end.
Still, Biden’s rhetorical rebuke of Israel may not be enough to appease voters critical of ongoing US military assistance, and recent Gallup polling shows that a majority of Americans (55%) now disapprove of Israeli military actions in the enclave.
US Ambassador to the United Nations Linda Greenfield-Thomas addresses a meeting of the Security Council as they consider a US-sponsored resolution calling for a cease-fire in Gaza, on March 22, 2024.
China and Russia veto US cease-fire resolution for Gaza
Yet another Gaza cease-fire resolution failed in the UN Security Council today – though the US was not responsible for blocking it this time. China and Russia vetoed a US-sponsored resolution urging for “an immediate and sustained cease-fire” in the Israel-Hamas war in connection with a hostage deal.
Beijing and Moscow’s ambassadors seemingly took issue with the language of the resolution, contending it didn’t go far enough to demand a cease-fire. The US resolution “sets up conditions for a ceasefire, which is no different from giving a green light to continued killings, which is unacceptable,” said Zhang Jun, China’s ambassador to the UN.
Russia's ambassador, Vassily Nebenzia, said Moscow supported a cease-fire but decried the US resolution as a “hypocritical spectacle.” Nebenzia said it was “exceedingly politicized … to help to play to the voters, to throw them a bone in the form of some kind of a mention of a cease-fire in Gaza.”
The US, Israel’s top ally, previously vetoed three cease-fire resolutions. The latest resolution signaled a shift in Washington’s stance on the war, as the Biden administration faces domestic pressure over its support for Israel and butts heads with Benjamin Netanyahu’s government over plans to invade Rafah – a city filled with displaced Palestinians.
Playing politics? The US accused Russia and China, two of its top adversaries, of tanking the resolution for political reasons. "Russia and China simply did not want to vote for a resolution that was penned by the United States,” said US Ambassador to the UN Linda Thomas-Greenfield.
What’s next? Elected members of the UNSC have penned an alternative resolution that demands an immediate cease-fire, which could be brought to a vote on Friday afternoon. The US has signaled it will block the measure.
Meanwhile, Secretary of State Antony Blinken traveled to Israel on Friday as part of ongoing efforts to secure a new truce. Netanyahu remained defiant during the visit, telling Blinken that Israel can't defeat Hamas without going into Rafah and that it will move forward with the operation without US support if necessary.
Blue and White party leader Benny Gantz speaks to supporters following the announcement of exit polls in Israel's election at the party's headquarters in Tel Aviv, Israel March 3, 2020.
The rivalry dividing Israel’s government
On Monday, Israeli senior government official Benny Gantz met in Washington with Vice President Kamala Harris, National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan, and lawmakers of both parties. Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is not happy about it.
Though Gantz now serves in Netanyahu’s coalition government, the two are longtime political rivals, and wartime policy differences have added new strains to their relationship. Gantz has publicly criticized Netanyahu’s conduct of the war, and the prime minister reportedly ordered the Israeli embassy not to participate in Gantz’s Washington meetings. Some of Netanyahu’s allies have publicly accused Gantz of undermining the war effort itself.
Gantz is a lead candidate to replace Netanyahu as PM in the coming months, and there are differences between the two men worth noting. Gantz would have a better relationship with Washington, any Israeli PM’s most important foreign ally. The Biden administration appears increasingly fed up with Netanyahu’s inability to bring the war to a swift end and his unwillingness to allow more humanitarian help for Palestinian civilians caught in the crossfire.
But their largest difference is not about the need to destroy Hamas. It’s about who has the credibility to achieve that goal and lead Israel into the future. In short, a Gantz government probably wouldn’t offer a major shift in wartime strategy.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu chairs a Cabinet meeting at the Kirya, which houses the Israeli Ministry of Defence, in Tel Aviv, Israel on December 17, 2023.
Gaza latest: Bibi unfazed, ceasefire goes nowhere, India in it
Israeli envoy Ron Dermer is in Washington this week for talks about when and how Israel might end its assault on the Gaza strip. International calls for a ceasefire continue to grow, and even the US – Israel’s staunchest ally – has gently warned Israel about the risks of an endless quagmire.
Still, Dermer’s boss, Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu, seems unfazed, visiting IDF troops in Gaza earlier this week and pledging to continue the assault on Gaza until “victory.”
Writing in the Wall Street Journal, he said that means “destroying” Hamas and “deradicalizing the whole of Palestinian society.” How that will be achieved is, of course, an open question. So far, Israel’s response to the October 7th Hamas massacre has killed more than 20,000 people in Gaza and displaced nearly 2 million.
Crickets for Cairo: Both Israel and Hamas had little to say about a recent Egyptian ceasefire proposal that envisioned Hamas releasing hostages, Israel withdrawing from Gaza, and a new government for the Palestinian territories. Hamas says it’s not interested in “temporary” truces.
Regional tremors continue: An Israeli airstrike in Syria on Monday killed a senior Iranian military figure who reportedly oversaw weapons shipments to Hezbollah, and the US struck Iran-backed militias in Iraq in retaliation for a drone strike on US troops.
India jumps in: In a sign of the widening global impact of the Gaza war, India has sent warships to the Red Sea to protect vessels carrying cargo to and from the subcontinent.
The move came a day after a drone, allegedly from Iran, struck a tanker off the Indian coast. Iran-backed Houthi rebels, meanwhile, have been attacking ships in the Red Sea for weeks in solidarity with Hamas, prompting the US to lead an international maritime security coalition in the region.
India, in contrast to much of the “Global South”, has signaled support for Israel. New Delhi has deepened ties with the Jewish state under the leadership of PM Narendra Modi, whom rights groups have accused of discriminating against India’s Muslim minority at home.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu meets with soldiers as he visits an Israeli army base in Tze'elim, Israel November 7, 2023.
Netanyahu flirts with a lengthy stay in Gaza
Less than two weeks since Israel launched a ground invasion of Gaza, it appears that Israeli troops won’t be leaving the coastal enclave anytime soon. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Monday told ABC News that Israel will take “overall security responsibility” for Gaza for an “indefinite period” to prevent further Hamas attacks.
This raises a slew of questions and concerns about Israel’s goal of rooting out Hamas and the potential for sparking even more violence from Hamas and other Iranian proxies. Will this mean a purely military presence, or is it a slippery slope to the return of Israeli settlements in Gaza?
Bibi’s announcement “raised red flags in Arab capitals,” and especially in Cairo, says Randa Slim, senior fellow and director of conflict resolution at the Middle East Institute.
Israel’s goal: Bibi says the aim is to eradicate Hamas and rescue the roughly 240 people taken hostage by Hamas during its Oct. 7 attack. But completely destroying Hamas could prove extremely difficult, as the violence is likely to inspire the next generation of anti-Israel fighters. Meanwhile, Israeli troops will face intense urban fighting and contend with the militants’ use of an intricate system of tunnels.
How Hamas allies might respond: An indefinite Israeli presence in Gaza will “definitely catalyze” a Hamas and Islamic Jihad-led insurgency and lead “to a years-long bloody and sustained conflict,” Slim warns.
In this way, Netanyahu may be falling into a trap. He’s poised to give Hamas exactly what it wants, says Hussein Ibish, a senior resident scholar at the Arab Gulf States Institute, which is “a long-term ground presence that can serve as the target of a sustained insurgency.”
Hamas hopes to “start picking off Israeli soldiers individually and in small groups, killing and capturing them, and bleeding Israel horrendously,” he adds, noting how this will help the militant group portray itself as the rightful leader of the Palestinian national movement — as opposed to Palestinian leaders in the occupied West Bank “who sit at the table listening to crickets and waiting for negotiations that never take place.”
The bottom line: Bibi may just have opened the door for a renewed Israeli military occupation of Gaza, sinking the prospect of a two-state solution.Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu attends Arnon Milchan's video testimony
Latest twists and turns in Bibi’s trial
In one of the more damning moments of Israeli PM Bibi Netanyahu’s ongoing corruption trial, Arnon Milchan, a billionaire Hollywood mogul, took to the stand (virtually) on Monday to say his piece.
A longtime friend of the PM, Milchan testified for the prosecution and said that during Bibi’s previous tenure (2007-2016) he sometimes gave gifts to the PM and his wife – most commonly cigars and champagne – in exchange for business and tax favors.
By saying that the Netahyahus had at times requested kickbacks, the powerful media tycoon undercut the PM’s claim that this case comes down to nothing more than one friend giving some gifts to another.
Quick recap: Bibi, who has ruled over the right-wing Likud Party for decades, is currently facing three separate criminal cases for bribery, corruption, and breach of trust. Milchan, who has produced scores of blockbusters including “Pretty Woman” and “Bohemian Rhapsody,” is a key witness in just one of them.
Milchan’s testimony, which he’s giving via video link in the UK, where he lives, will go on for several more days. Still, this isn’t the most serious case facing the PM – that one is known as Case 4,000 and linked to allegations that Bibi greenlit regulatory decisions to benefit a telecoms giant in exchange for favorable media coverage.
Crucially, Bibi got some good news related to that case in recent days, with reports that judges overseeing Case 4,000 have in recent days called on the prosecution to seek a plea deal owing to insufficient evidence.
Given the sluggish nature of Israel's judicial system (and the PM’s stonewalling tactics) even if negotiations over a deal fall through, some legal experts say that proceedings, including appeals, could drag on until as late as 2029.
Explosions light up the sky after the Israeli military struck Islamic Jihad targets in Gaza.
Israel prepares for Gaza escalation
Israel is bracing for fierce retaliatory strikes after taking out senior members of Palestinian Islamic Jihad in the Gaza Strip on Tuesday.
Israeli authorities have told families living in southern border communities to leave their homes, while bomb shelters in central Israel have also been opened.
What’s the trigger this time? Israel conducted air strikes on the Gaza Strip early Tuesday that resulted in the death of three PIJ heavyweights: Khalil Bahtini, the group’s commander for the northern Gaza Strip; Tareq Izzeldeen, the intermediary between PIJ’s Gaza and West Bank factions; and Jehad Ghanam, who headed the military council. Two of the commanders’ wives and children were also killed in the bombing along with other civilians, bringing the death toll to 13. Around 20 others were injured.
Israel’s security apparatus says the militants were responsible for a series of rocket attacks on Israel in recent weeks, as well as attacks against Jews inside Israel.
PIJ, which is backed by Iran, says that it will inflict a heavy price on Israel, which continued to bomb several targets in the Strip on Tuesday, including targeting an anti-tank guided missile crew in southern Gaza.
There are several things to watch in the days ahead.
First, will Hamas join PIJ in striking Israel? The former, which has fought several wars against Israel since forcefully taking control of the Gaza Strip in 2007, has been at loggerheads with the rogue PIJ for starting fights with Israel before at times when Hamas’ leadership has not sought an escalation. (In 2019 and 2022, for instance, Hamas stayed out of fighting after Israel targeted senior PIJ members.)
Indeed, a coordinated PIJ-Hamas operation would up the ante … significantly. One Israeli minister warned that the Israeli army will assassinate Hamas stalwart Yahya Sinwar, who heads the group’s activities in the Strip, if the militant group joins the action. That would spark a tinderbox.
And will Hezbollah and other militant groups in Lebanon join the fray, causing Israel to fend off attacks on multiple fronts? Hezbollah responded to the strikes by pledging “complete solidarity with our brothers in the PIJ,” while Iran is reportedly urging Hamas to join the fighting.
What about the political implications at home for Israel? In a recent GZERO World interview with Ian Bremmer, former Israeli PM Ehud Barak called the ongoing Palestinian issue “the elephant in the room” amidst ongoing domestic turmoil.
Prime Minister Benjamin “Bibi” Netanyahu’s far-right coalition partner, Itamar Ben-Gvir, recently boycotted the Knesset, Israel’s parliament, accusing the government of a weak response to recent rocket and terror attacks inside Israel. Ben-Gvir said that Tuesday’s strikes on Gaza were “a good start,” but could Bibi be ratcheting it up now to placate the far-right and prevent the crumbling of his fractious coalition?