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Who is Muhammad Mustafa?
Mahmoud Abbas, the 88-year-old president of the widely unpopular Palestinian Authority, on Thursday named Muhammad Mustafa as the authority’s prime minister. Given Abbas’s age, and the need for a successor as leader of the PA who can offer some credible alternative to Hamas as the political voice of Palestinians, Mustafa will now become the subject of wide international scrutiny.
So, who is he? Mustafa is a trained economist with a degree from George Washington University in Washington, DC. His current job is head of the Palestine Investment Fund, the Palestinian Territories’ sovereign development fund. He has also served as the PA’s economy minister and deputy prime minister.
More to the point, Mustafa is a longtime PA insider who owes his career and standing to Abbas. For those hoping the aging president would choose a dynamic, independent-minded leader as PM who might lead in a bold new direction, Mustafa is an unpopular choice – one that signals Abbas intends to remain the dominant voice in the PA for as long as he can.
Yuval Noah Harari on the perils of viewing Israel-Palestine through the 'victimhood' context
In a wide-ranging conversation with Ian Bremmer, filmed live at the historic 92nd Street Y in NYC, bestselling author Yuval Noah Harari discusses the profound role narratives play in conflict resolution and identity politics. It’s through this framing that Harari and Ian address the latest conflict between Israel and Gaza. Victimhood, Harari posits, often comes with an element of truth, but it carries the danger of absolving individuals or nations of responsibility. "If you think about yourself primarily as a victim, it relieves you of all responsibility," he explains.
Bremmer also presses Harari on the notion of narratives, and particularly, how to distinguish between patriotism and nationalism. Harari describes patriotism as the love for a unique group and a willingness to do more for them, akin to how we treat our families. Nationalism, however, turns perilous when it crosses into supremacism — when love for one's group becomes an excuse to despise and discriminate against others. Harari asserts, "It becomes dangerous when we start saying this group of people, they are not just unique. They are superior."
Harari defends the possibility of simultaneously supporting the rights and dignities of both Israelis and Palestinians. Holding dual narratives of both people's aspirations to live dignified lives in their homelands is not only possible but necessary, according to Harari. "Just because you are in favor of the rights of Palestinians doesn't mean you have to be also in favor of destroying Israel completely," he states.
Watch full episode: Yuval Noah Harari explains why the world isn't fair (but could be)
Catch GZERO World with Ian Bremmer every week online and on US public television. Check local listings.
Israel, Hamas and US in impasse over cease-fire deal
Ian Bremmer's Quick Take: Hi everybody. Ian Bremmer here and a Quick Take to kick off your week. And I want to talk a little bit about the Middle East because the war is very much still going on.
There's been hope, a lot of hope that we would have had a breakthrough deal for an extended cease fire, not a permanent cease fire, the cease fire of some six weeks, and that in return, significant numbers, dozens of the hostages that are still held after many months by Hamas in Gaza would have been released to their families in Israel. That has not happened. And it's not happened in large part because Hamas has refused to continue to negotiate. They basically said we want a permanent cease fire or nothing. And they are essentially daring the Israelis to go ahead with ground strikes in Rafah, where we have about 1.5 million Palestinians that are sheltering. “I have nowhere to go.” And the Americans are very unhappy with the idea that the Israelis would engage in that battle without having a plan for evacuation and protecting those civilians. Hamas is saying “go for it if that's what you want to do.” They're putting, as they have all the way through, their civilians at maximum risk. They're not trying to defend them.
Netanyahu, meanwhile, is trying to stay in power. What that means is he is more than willing to say “no” very loudly, very publicly to the United States. President Biden has said that an attack into Rafah by the Israelis would be a red line, would constitute a red line. And the Netanyahu government has said, “This is not a red line. The red line is destroying Hamas.” And so we're going to do absolutely everything in our power to do that. That includes taking on the tunnels and the military leaders that we believe continue to exist in that territory. Expectation is that is indeed going to happen. There’s going to be a lot more civilians that are killed. Biden is going to be under a lot more pressure, notwithstanding the fact that there is an effort by the Americans and others to provide more humanitarian aid on the ground to the Palestinians. But that is not close to the trucks that could be coming through that the Israelis have been unwilling to allow through.
So, I mean, you're at an impasse and you're an impasse basically until the Israelis feel like the war has been fought to their satisfaction and Netanyahu who is correct about one thing. This isn't just him that's calling the shots. It is the entire Israeli war cabinet, is the Israeli population. Whether or not they like Netanyahu and most of them don't. They want a war that destroys Hamas. They want a war that gets rid of the military capabilities on the ground and under the ground that finds the leaders and kills them. Hamas is very aware of that.
And that's part of the reason why you still have large numbers of hostages that continue to be held. It's quite plausible that the Israelis know where the Hamas leaders are, that they’re surrounded with a whole bunch of innocent civilians, Israeli civilians, and that's why they're still there. If you let them all go then what happens to them? Well, that's the end of them.
So there are many reasons to believe that the war is going to persist for a long time. And I'm not just talking about a month or two. I'm talking about like still happening when US elections are in place in November. That's a real problem for Biden, did a good job with the State of the Union last week, better than most expected. The Middle East is one of the areas that he is most vulnerable right now. He kind of squished it towards the end of the speech, didn't talk about it very much, and is trying to distance himself from the Israeli prime minister. There's only so much he can do given that he's going to continue to provide military support no matter what. He's going to continue to support Iron Dome, no matter what. Israel is going to continue to be America's top ally in the Middle East, no matter what. So on the one hand, he has large numbers of Americans in his own party that are increasingly sympathetic with the Palestinian position, in particularly with the civilian position on the ground. And yet he has very little leverage over his top ally.
That's a serious, serious challenge for him going forward. As long as that persists, you're going to continue to have attacks on ships in the Red Sea. We just saw the first casualties as a consequence of that, price is going to continue to be inefficient and up on the back of that, and you're going to see concerns about broader instability, radicalization particularly from the Palestinian population, but also the broader Arab street, the Muslim population in the Middle East, in Europe, even in the United States.
That's a reality and that's a very big downside for Biden himself. The good news, very good news. He has a little bit of good news, which is that America's efforts against the Houthis, which has degraded their military capabilities by between 30 and 50% of what they are known to have, that's not what they're not known to have, has meant that we have not seen attacks by Iranian proxies against American forces or British forces on the ground. That's a big deal. That is a win and it’s not a huge win, but in the context of so many other things in the Middle East that are going badly, you'll take it.
So anyway, that's where we are right now, and I hope everyone's doing well and I'll talk to you all real soon.
Rival Palestinian factions try to make nice in Moscow
Hamas and Fatah, rival Palestinian factions with a bloody history, were in Moscow on Thursday for reconciliation talks.
Why is this significant? The jihadists of Hamas and the secular nationalists of Fatah are Palestine’s most powerful factions. They fought a war in 2007 that left Hamas in control of Gaza and Fatah running the occupied West Bank. Reconciliation would be crucial for establishing any stable Palestinian state in the future.
Not everyone is a fan. Even if Hamas and Fatah can make doves cry, it’s difficult to see Israel or the US singing along. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is dead-set on destroying Hamas which, unlike Fatah, refuses to recognize Israel’s existence.
But polls show Hamas is popular among Palestinians, partly because Fatah’s accommodationist stance is seen as a failure. Unless Netanyahu can destroy the group entirely, a tall order, any plans for post-war governance in Gaza – to say nothing of a Palestinian state some day – will require some blessing or buy-in from Hamas.
But let’s not get ahead of ourselves. That “post-war” is as far off as ever. US President Joe Biden on Thursday walked back his earlier optimism about an imminent ceasefire.Israel sets hostage deadline, Palestinians go to Moscow
Israel has issued a firm deadline for the release of its remaining hostages: March 10, the start of the Muslim holy month of Ramadan.
If the deadline for their release is not met, former defense minister and current war cabinet member Benny Gantz on Sunday said Israel would launch a ground invasion of Rafah, escalating from bombings and raids. Gantz promised that Israel would ensure civilian evacuations in coordination with the US and Egypt to minimize casualties.
Meanwhile, rival Palestinian factions are gearing up for a meeting in Moscow to rework Gaza's governance. Western leaders have roundly rejected Hamas participation in any future scenario, so Russian mediation is the most promising path from the Palestinian perspective, and Russia has delicate interests to balance in the region.
Palestinian Authority prime minister Mohammad Shtayyehconfirmed Russia will host the talks February 26. “If Hamas is ready to come to the ground with us, we are ready to engage. If Hamas is not… that is a different story. But we need Palestinian unity.”
That unity would require Hamas to accept the political platform of the PLO, including recognizing Israel, a position Hamas currently rejects.
Hamas would like discussions to focus on rebuilding the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) and establishing a technocratic government until elections are held. It would also like Palestinian Authority president Mahmoud Abbas to resign.
International response to date has been skeptical. French officials oppose any involvement by Hamas in its current form, while the UK would like to dismantle Hamas's military, exile its leadership, and establish a technocratic, demilitarized authority to oversee elections, to eliminate threats to Israel.US aid for Israel & Ukraine hangs in the balance
Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week on World In :60.
Will the House pass the Senate-approved aid package for Ukraine and Israel?
Well, certainly not if the Freedom Caucus and the Speaker of the House have anything to say about it. So, I mean, as of today, what the Senate has passed with a lot of Republicans on board looks dead in the House. But of course, the ability to jam the House and force them to accept something or there's no government funding, that is a game of chicken that we've seen before and the Senate may well continue to be ready to play. So it is not dead yet, but aid is looking challenging. And let's be clear, irrespective of what happens for 2024, it's going to be very hard to get any more aid for the Ukrainians going forward. And everybody is deeply aware of that reality.
How likely will Israel proceed with a ground invasion of Rafah in Gaza?
Well, keep in mind, this is right on the border with Egypt. The Egyptians have said that this will blow up their peace agreement with Israel if they decide to go into that space full on with a ground invasion. There's already been some incursions, including one that freed two hostages held by Hamas. So clearly that has huge support from the Israeli population as a whole. The Biden administration has publicly said that they don't want to see a ground invasion, especially because there are no circumstances, at least not set up yet, that the Palestinians who continue to be forced to move and move and move will be safe in this environment. I think that we are very close to a temporary cease fire and more hostages being released. So part of this is pressure from Israel to get that done. If you made me bet right now, I'd say we actually see the deal first. But that is not going to end eventual hostilities from ticking back up between the Israelis and Hamas in Gaza.
What are the wider implications for the Indonesia presidential election?
More state influence over key industries in the economy. Probably a little bit more willingness to blow out the budget from a fiscal perspective. But the likely winner, Prabowo, his vice presidential running mate, is the son of Jokowi, the president of Indonesia. And that implies first geopolitically, very similar orientation to have balanced relations between China economically but the US strategically. I don't see that changing at all. There is still a big question about whether they're going to move the capital. This has been a massive effort with a lot of money that is at play and it's not clear that Prabowo is as convinced that that needs to be the legacy as Jokowi has been. That'll be worth watching very carefully when he becomes president, for those that care. I do, hope you do, too.
- Stalled deal on US border security leaves Ukraine in the lurch ›
- Poll: American support for Ukraine aid is falling ›
- Hard Numbers: March shows solidarity for Israel, US Army overturns convictions of Black soldiers, US inflation cools, EU falls short on artillery shells for Ukraine, House passes funding bill ›
- Zelensky's US trip likely to secure aid for Ukraine ›
- US aid for Israel: How much and since when? ›
Trump's Jan. 6 trial could now hurt his re-election bid
Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week on World In :60.
Will the US-proposed cease-fire plan for Israel and Hamas come to fruition amidst reports of hostage deaths?
It's not done until it's done. There are a lot of ways that it can blow up. And, you know, Netanyahu probably wants to take it to the Knesset and get, you know, support for it. And nonetheless, Hamas can always say no. But I would bet on it. I think we are going to see more hostages released. There's a lot of pressure on Israel to give away more to get that done in terms of a cease-fire. And there's a lot of pressure on Hamas to accept a longer cease-fire and see if they can keep it going. So I think we'll get at least four weeks in return for a significant number of hostages that are released. That doesn't mean that we get a peace plan. It doesn't mean we see a two-state solution. It certainly doesn't mean that the cease-fire is going to hold for longer than that period of time or even the entire period of time submitted to. There are plenty of actors that still want to see war continue on the ground.
How will upcoming elections in Pakistan affect its broader geopolitical standing in the world?
I'd say badly, but in reality not very much. I mean, the big deal is that the most popular person to run in Pakistan is not allowed to run. That's Imran Khan, the very charismatic cricketer whose party has basically been dismantled and who is himself said to be a criminal for charges that at the very least look politicized and at the worst look pretty much made up. That's not great for a democracy, even one where the military still holds an enormous amount of power. And ultimately, you're going to see a lot of instability in Pakistan, probably a lot of violence in the midst of an economy that's doing very, very badly.
Finally, the US appeals court ruled that Trump can face trial for election interference. Does this lower the odds on his possible return to the White House?
Well, I mean, it does. If you thought that the appeals court was going to rule any other way. I mean, certainly the fact that these cases are going on and that Trump might be indicted before the election, most likely in the Washington DC case, that would reduce Trump's support base among independents and make it less likely for them to turn out for him, maybe less likely some of them will vote at all than otherwise. And so of all of the wild cards out there that could really hurt Trump, a conviction is a big one, especially a conviction for a felony crime. And the fact that impunity doesn't hold in the way it's been argued by the Trump lawyers does make a difference. Still, if you were having the election right now, Trump wins. And there's a lot of time out there, but it's still a challenging road, perhaps a more challenging road for Biden today than it is for Trump. And that is something that everyone should keep a very close eye on.
Israel-Hamas war: West Bank raid won't derail cease-fire
Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week from Davos on World In :60.
Does the Israeli undercover hospital raid in West Bank destroy any chance of a ceasefire with Hamas?I mean what? The fact that you have undercover IDF forces going after people they believe are terrorists in a hospital? I don't see that as more significant in any way than the war that's been going on in Gaza. The issue is that in the West Bank, but there's been a lot of fighting in the West Bank, knocking a lot of news. No, no, no. The big point here is that the Israelis are under more pressure and are willing to accept a more challenging ceasefire deal than they were a couple of weeks ago, both in terms of of how long that cease fire would go on and also what they're negotiating for the number of hostages and what they have to give up in return. It looks like they are getting pretty close, but once again, would have to be approved by the Knesset and Hamas has to say yes. And that has been more challenging than getting the Israelis to the table, at least in the last couple of weeks.Why is it more concerning when TikTok shares US data than when US tech companies do?
Well, I mean, one is the presumption and I think it's a reasonable presumption that if TikTok has your data, the Chinese government will have access to that data. And a lot of Americans are understandably uncomfortable with a foreign government that engages in espionage against the US, having access to citizens’ data as opposed to, say, the US government, which of course, occasionally does so as well. But you are a citizen. You do have those rights, and in principle you're more aligned with it. But you know, also the fact that the Chinese government does not allow Western social media firms, the Meta and the Google surveillance capitalism to operate fully in China. And that means that the Chinese are not having access to American major companies. Some of the biggest drivers of wealth that the United States has. So why would the Americans allow the Chinese to do that in the US? At the very least, you'd want a level playing field, and that means for both sides.
What are the wider consequences of West Africa's “Brexit” moment?
Well, what we're talking about here is that the West African “EU”, which is nothing like the EU, ECOWAS, and it's kind of like an economic and political bloc, but it's not super functional and it's really, really divided. But nonetheless, the three countries in Africa that have recently had military coups and therefore have zero legitimacy of their governments. Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger have all decided to leave ECOWAS. And you know who's on the ground in those countries? Who has any influence other than the military? It's Russia. And, you know, given that Russia's other friends are North Korea and Iran, that is, generally speaking, not a great thing for West Africa and more broadly.