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Democratic candidate for New York City mayor, Zohran Mamdani, votes in the New York City mayoral election at a polling site at the Frank Sinatra School of the Arts High School in Astoria, Queens borough of New York City, USA, on November 4, 2025.
What We’re Watching: Some Americans head to the polls, German U-turn on Syrian asylum policy, Russia may have to find new oil buyers
It’s Election Day in the United States
It’s the first Tuesday after Nov. 1, which means it’s US election day. Key ballots to watch include the mayoral race in New York City – where democratic socialist Zohran Mamdani is poised to pull off an upset that will echo into national level politics – as well as state Supreme Court races in Pennsylvania, and ballot initiatives on gerrymandering in California. Don’t forget about the New Jersey governor election either, where GOP nominee Jack Ciattarelli is looking to eke out a victory against Democratic nominee Mikie Sherrill. New Jersey was once reliably blue but has been getting more purple in recent years: in 2020 Joe Biden won it by 17 points, but Donald Trump lost by just four last year.
Germany to end asylum for Syrians
German Chancellor Friedrich Merz says Syrians no longer have grounds for political asylum in his country now that the Syrian civil war is over. Merz called for a repatriation program to ease burdens on Germany and accelerate the rebuilding of Syria, though the United Nations warns Syria still isn’t ready to absorb a large population of returnees. It was exactly ten years ago that Chancellor Angela Merkel declared “Wir schaffen das” (we can do it), establishing a generous asylum policy that welcomed in more than a million Syrians fleeing their country’s horrific civil war. A decade later, with the war over and the far right surging on anti-immigrant backlash, Merz is now saying, “Wir schaffen das nicht.”
Is India buying less Russian oil?
Last month, Trump announced sanctions on Russia’s top two oil companies, in a bid to squeeze the Kremlin’s war effort by scaring off major crude buyers like India and China. Is it working? Preliminary data show India’s imports of Russian oil actually increased slightly in October compared to September. But wait, there’s more: India’s purchases in the second half of October plummeted compared to the first half. That may have something to do with the fact that Trump announced the sanctions on Oct. 23. They don’t take effect until later this month, so we’ll be watching to see what the November data tell us. With Chinese firms now also reportedly exploring alternative sources of oil, Russia may in fact start feeling the effects of US sanctions (for more on this, and whether it would change his approach to Ukraine, read here).
Trump bets big on Russian oil sanctions, but will it pay off?
President Trump has directly sanctioned Russia for the first time since retaking office, over President Putin's refusal to come to the negotiating table on Ukraine. It's a move aimed at weakening Putin’s war economy, says Eurasia Group's Gregory Brew, but one that could have ripple effects from Beijing to the US gas pump.
Trump is getting tough on Russian oil, but to have a real impact on Putin, he'll likely have to go further, which could undermine his big trade deals and push up gas prices. Here at home, US President Donald Trump is running out of patience with Vladimir Putin who refuses to return to the negotiating table for a ceasefire in Ukraine.
Last week, Trump took the surprising step of putting sanctions on two of Russia's largest oil companies, the first time the US has directly sanctioned Russia since he became president. Now, in theory, these sanctions should prevent Russia from selling oil to its two biggest customers, India and China, who together take more than two-thirds of Russia's crude oil exports an important source of income for Putin's war in Ukraine. But as ever, the devil is in the details.
Russia has been facing sanctions and other Western measures to disrupt its crude exports for years now, and it will probably find a way around these new sanctions if the US doesn't keep up the pressure. That means more sanctions will be necessary, not just on Russia, but on its customers. Secondary sanctions on Indian and Chinese refiners who have been buying Russian crude would help cut off the flow, but there could be blowback. Sanctions could anger the Indian and Chinese governments, undermining Trump's efforts to secure big trade deals with Beijing and New Delhi.
And even if some or all of Russia's customers decide to stop taking its oil, Trump could feel the pain back at home. The disruptive impact on Russia's crude oil exports could push up oil prices, which would, in effect, raise the price of gasoline in the United States. That means that after this big initial blow, Trump is likely to take it slow. He'll look to India to voluntarily back away from Russian oil to the EU to put on some new sanctions of its own, and finally to Putin to return to the negotiating table or risk tougher sanctions ahead. As ever, Trump will look to accomplish his goals without causing a big shock to oil prices. It's a delicate balancing act that Trump will have to manage as he tries to avoid nasty economic shocks that could undermine his position back at home.
Russian President Vladimir Putin chairs a meeting with members of the Security Council via video link at the Kremlin in Moscow, Russia, on October 24, 2025.
Will Trump’s new Russia sanctions work?
It’s been a tumultuous couple of weeks for US-Russia relations.
Two weeks ago, US President Donald Trump was considering handing Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine, which would allow Kyiv to strike deep into Russian territory. But, following a phone call with Russian President Vladimir Putin on Oct. 16, Trump decided to chop the Tomahawk plan, and announced a meeting with his Russian counterpart.
That quickly fell apart, though – reportedly because negotiations over a ceasefire deal had stalled – and by Oct. 23, an agitated Trump announced that he was sanctioning Russia’s two largest oil companies, Rosneft and Lukoil, which together produce half of Russia’s oil. This was a step that even the Biden administration refused to take, largely over fears that oil prices would spike, driving up inflation.
Now, combined with Biden-era sanctions on Gazpromneft and Surgutneftegaz, the US has blacklisted Moscow’s four largest crude producers.
There’s just one problem, per Eurasia Group’s Russia expert Alex Brideau.
“The new US sanctions are most likely insufficient to change Putin’s strategy in the war against Ukraine,” said Brideau. “The full effect will depend, in part, on whether the largest importers of Russian oil, India and China, halt these purchases.”
Will China and India halt purchases? Here’s the thing: they just might. This would be devastating for the Kremlin: the two countries combined currently purchase more than 80% of Russia’s crude exports, per the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air. What’s more, the oil & gas sector is vital to Russia’s government purse – it’s responsible for 30-50% of total budget revenues.
Even absent any pressure from the government to comply or ignore the sanctions, Chinese refiners are already looking elsewhere, per Eurasia Group’s Practice Head for China David Meale.
“I think there is no chance that China will push its firms to comply with the sanctions for the purposes of improving bilateral relations,” said Meale. “However, their major oil companies have already curtailed purchases due to how the threat of sanctions affects their other international interactions.”
India, meanwhile, has until now resisted Trump’s direct pressure to stop buying Russian oil, in part because it wants Moscow to stay neutral if China-India tensions flare up again. With the new US sanctions in place, though, it could be a different story.
“The sanctions on the two largest Russian oil firms have certainly changed the situation,” said Ashok Malik, partner and chair of The Asia Group’s India practice. “I would expect Russian oil purchases to decline significantly — at least in the medium run — should these measures be carried through.”
It seems the process has already begun: Reuters reported last week that Indian oil refiners are poised to halt purchases of Russian oil.
“A near-total halt in Russian crude imports by late November appears inevitable – not out of political alignment, but because continuing would endanger India’s economy itself,” Ajay Srivastava, founder of the Delhi-based Global Trade Research Initiative, told GZERO.
In a sign that the sanctions are already hurting Russian crude firms, Lukoil unveiled a plan yesterday to sell off its foreign assets.
So it looks like Moscow is in trouble? There are signs that the attritional war is starting to take a toll on the Russian economy, which had been remarkably resilient over the first three years of the war. The International Monetary Fund forecast that the Russian economy will expand by less than 1% this year – it grew over 4% in each of the last two years. Inflation has remained stubbornly high at around 8%. And Russians are becoming less optimistic about whether economic conditions are improving in their area, per a Gallup poll.
“Over a longer period of time,” said Brideau, “these trade-offs may become too difficult for the state to manage.”
A stubborn (Moscow) mule. If there is one last reason that Russia will continue this war, it’s Putin. The Russian leader has displayed an extraordinarily high threshold for pain on the battlefield: his army has suffered huge losses and is advancing in Ukraine at a snail’s pace, yet he has shown no willingness to compromise on his main war objectives. He believes that Ukraine belongs to Russia, and that NATO shouldn’t be continuing to expand along Russia’s border.
If this high pain threshold applies to economic suffering, too, then these sanctions won’t stop the war any time soon.
“Politically, Putin remains strongly committed to his objectives in Ukraine,” said Brideau. “He is willing to risk the long-term health of the Russian economy to pursue these goals.”
U.S. President Donald Trump listens as Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi speaks during a joint press conference at the White House in Washington, D.C., U.S., February 13, 2025.
What We’re Watching: Trump changes tune again on Russia, China helps Myanmar’s junta gain ground, Brazil’s Lula announces reelection bid
Trump sanctions Russia’s biggest oil firms
Missing a date has consequences: days after canceling a second meeting this year with Russian President Vladimir Putin, US President Donald Trump imposed sanctions on Russia’s two largest oil companies, Rosneft and Lukoil, a sign of Washington’s growing frustration with the Kremlin. Europe piled on, imposing its 19th set of sanctions on Moscow. Oil prices jumped in response. In a sign that India, the second-biggest purchaser of Russian oil, could abide by these sanctions, Delhi’s top refiner is looking at halting purchases from Moscow. Further, The Wall Street Journal reported that the White House has authorized Ukraine to strike deep inside Russia. Trump denied the report, but a Russian munitions factory some 1,000 miles from the Ukrainian border was hit last night, killing at least 10.
Myanmar’s junta gains ground with China’s help
Myanmar’s military junta has regained key territory in Shan State, reversing major losses from last year’s insurgent offensives in the country’s brutal four-year civil war. Since the 2021 coup that ousted the previous pro-democracy leader, ethnic armies and local militias have battled to topple military rule. The army has now retaken strategically important towns in the Shan State using new Chinese-supplied drones, airpower, and 60,000 conscripts. China’s growing support has tilted the balance decisively toward the junta, even as large parts of Myanmar remain contested and devastated by civil war.
Brazil’s president to seek a fourth term
Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, known as Lula, announced on Thursday that he will run for reelection in 2026, seeking a fourth non-consecutive term at 79 years old. Lula’s popularity has been on the rise in reaction to Trump’s tariffs and pressure to drop the case against former President Jair Bolsonaro – who was convicted of inciting a coup. Lula is sharpening his rich-versus-poor rhetoric as he begins his campaign around the country, calling for higher taxes on the wealthy, fintechs, and gambling companies. It is unclear who will oppose him, but Bolsonaro is likely to serve as a kingmaker in choosing the next leader of his right-wing movement.
Hard Numbers: Google to build AI data hub in India, Mexican rains kill dozens, Venezuela shuts Norwegian embassy, China puts sanctions on Korean shipbuilder
64: Torrid rains in Mexico last week – the result of an unusual clash of hot and cold fronts – have left 64 dead and another 65 missing. The rain damaged some 100,000 homes, and has left five states without power. The worst-affected areas were in the central parts of the country, as well as along the Gulf Coast.
3: Just three days after the Norwegian Nobel Committee awarded its Peace Prize to Venezuela’s opposition leader Maria Corina Machado, Caracas shut its embassy in Oslo on Monday. The Venezuelan didn’t mention Machado in its statement about the closure. Norway also suffered a diplomatic blow for similar reasons in 2010, when China suspended trade relations after the Nobel Committee awarded its prize to Chinese dissident Liu Xiaobo.
5: China sanctioned five US-linked subsidiaries of South Korea’s Hanwha Ocean, accusing them of aiding US investigations. The move coincided with new US-China port fees and sent Hanwha shares down nearly 6%. Seoul said it’s assessing the impact as tensions over shipbuilding escalate.
India’s race to leverage AI by 2047
"India must leverage this technology to become a developed country by 2047. If not, we risk growing old without ever having grown rich," says Secretary S. Krishnan, Ministry of Electronics and Information Technology for the Government of India.
With 1.4 billion people, India has a narrow window to reach developed-country status by 2047. Leaders stress that AI, frugal innovation, and low-cost solutions could unlock that opportunity—and offer lessons for the wider Global South.
Watch more Global Stage coverage from the 80th Session of the United Nations General Assembly here: gzeromedia.com/globalstage
US President Donald Trump displays a signed executive order on gold card visa in the Oval Office at the White House in Washington, D.C., USA, on September 19, 2025.
Hard Numbers: Trump admin introduces visa fee, Ransomware flies through European airports, Drone strike in Sudan kills 78, US bombs third boat from Venezuela
$100,000: The Trump administration introduced a $100,000 one-time fee for those who wish to obtain a H-1B visa. The initial announcement sparked upheaval among major US firms, as it appeared to suggest that there would be an annual $100,000 fee for the visa. The White House clarified that it would be a one-off payment, and wouldn’t apply to existing visaholders. The majority of H-1B visaholders are Indian nationals.
140: A ransomware attack that struck several major European airports on Friday continues to sow chaos, with Brussels Airport asking airlines to cancel 140 of the 276 scheduled outbound flights on Monday. The source of the attack remains unclear.
78: A drone strike on a mosque in El Fasher, in North Darfur, on Friday killed 78 people, per a local medic. The rebel Rapid Support Forces have been blamed for the attack, though they deny responsibility. Drones have expanded the scope of Sudan’s civil war, putting more and more civilians at risk – read more here.
3: A pattern is beginning to emerge, as the US military – for the third time in recent weeks – bombed a boat that was reportedly carrying drugs from Venezuela. The attack killed three people on board. US President Donald Trump has argued that the move is legal, since drug cartels in his view are foreign terrorist organizations.
Will Trump's energy policies set back climate progress?
President Trump has made no secret of his distaste for wind and solar and preference for fossil fuels. His administration has canceled subsidies for renewable projects, lifted drilling restrictions on federal land, and is pressuring allies to buy more American oil and gas. On Ian Explains, Ian Bremmer breaks down the reality of the energy transition and whether US policies will slow down global progress in moving toward a renewable future.
No matter what the White House says, the incentives for renewables are hard to ignore. From Texas to Saudi Arabia, India to China, governments all over the world are embracing solar and wind not just for the planet, but for economic and security reasons. Clean energy is now the cheapest power source almost everywhere. And, amid rising instability, energy independence has become a safety and security issue. You can’t embargo the sun. No one controls the wind. Fossil fuels still matter, but the question is no longer if the world will transition. It's how fast.
GZERO World with Ian Bremmer, the award-winning weekly global affairs series, airs nationwide on US public television stations (check local listings).
New digital episodes of GZERO World are released every Monday on YouTube. Don't miss an episode: subscribe to GZERO's YouTube channel and turn on notifications (🔔). GZERO World with Ian Bremmer airs on US public television weekly - check local listings.