Trending Now
We have updated our Privacy Policy and Terms of Use for Eurasia Group and its affiliates, including GZERO Media, to clarify the types of data we collect, how we collect it, how we use data and with whom we share data. By using our website you consent to our Terms and Conditions and Privacy Policy, including the transfer of your personal data to the United States from your country of residence, and our use of cookies described in our Cookie Policy.
{{ subpage.title }}
Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva participates in the Inauguration Ceremony of the GWM Factory in Iracemapolis, state of Sao Paulo, on August 15, 2025.
What We’re Watching: Brazil’s left-wing leader makes a comeback, Israel considers Gaza options, India and China explore border drawings
Brazil’s Lula finds a recipe for left-wing LatAm success
Brazil is now subject to 50% tariffs from the United States, but President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva appears to be reveling in it: his approval rating jumped another three percentage points in August, per Genial/Quaest polling, reaching 46%, up from 43% in July and 40% in May. It appears Lula’s positioning as a foil to US President Donald Trump – just see his recent interviews with international outlets – is paying dividends. At a time when much of South America appears to be tilting right, the Brazilian leader may have found a recipe for keeping the left in power.
Escalation or ceasefire: what next for Gaza?
Israel reiterated Tuesday that it won’t accept a ceasefire until Hamas releases all 50 remaining hostages – 20 of whom are believed alive. This comes after Hamas officials said it had accepted a Gaza ceasefire deal, one that would return 28 of the hostages, including 10 of those who are living. Even if the truce does come to fruition, it won’t necessarily spell the end for war in the enclave: Israeli forces are ramping up activity as it prepares to invade Gaza City, calling up an extra 60,000 reservists which doubles the total number currently active.
India and China look to settle disputed border
As India-US relations worsen under Trump’s tariffs, New Delhi’s relationship with China is looking up. India and China agreed this week to explore demarcating their disputed border, a move both sides hailed as a step toward easing decades of tensions. The decision came during Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi’s first visit to Delhi in three years, ahead of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s expected trip to China for a regional summit. While the border remains fraught, both governments say progress could build trust and spill over into other cooperation, from trade to travel. Next stop for Wang: Pakistan, India’s rival and China’s longtime ally, who would be miffed without a visit.
Why Pakistan sees China as a "force for stability"
Pakistan’s most important relationship may be its deep strategic partnership with China. The two countries have close security ties and economic alignment, especially when it comes to managing their mutual adversary India. On GZERO World, former Pakistani Foreign Minister Hina Khar gives her view on the China-Pakistan relationship, which she sees as a stabilizing force in Southeast Asia. Given so much geopolitical uncertainty right now, Khar explains, the world has just started noticing Pakistan and China’s strong ties. But the relationship goes back decades.
Khar says Pakistan doesn’t see the world in competing blocs, and believes there’s value in maintaining friendly relations with Western countries as well as its immediate neighbor, China. Beijing’s Belt and Road program has made significant investments in Pakistan, which has sped up Pakistan’s development and allowed it to strengthen economic partnerships with its neighbors. When multilateral institutions stopped financing infrastructure projects, China was able to provide goods and investment loans, helping to build trains and highways in Pakistan, as well as Iran, Afghanistan, and Uzbekistan.
“This is a country [the world sees] as very belligerent, very hegemonic. We’ve always seen in our region, an immediate neighbor to China, that it only relies on economic relationships,” Khar says, “Within Pakistan and the broader region, China has been a force of stability.”
GZERO World with Ian Bremmer, the award-winning weekly global affairs series, airs nationwide on US public television stations (check local listings).
New digital episodes of GZERO World are released every Monday on YouTube. Don't miss an episode: subscribe to GZERO's YouTube channel and turn on notifications (🔔). GZERO World with Ian Bremmer airs on US public television weekly - check local listings.
India vs. Pakistan: Rising tensions in South Asia
Could tensions between India and Pakistan boil back over into military conflict? Last May, India launched a wave of missile attacks into Pakistan and Pakistan-administered Kashmir, claiming it was targeting terrorist infrastructure. After four days of dangerous escalation, both sides accepted a ceasefire, putting an end to the most serious military crisis in decades between the two rival nuclear states. On GZERO World, former Pakistani Foreign Minister Hina Khar joins Ian Bremmer to discuss Pakistan’s perspective and where the conflict stands now.
Khar argues India didn’t provide credible evidence to justify the attacks and that Pakistan’s response challenged the narrative of India’s conventional military superiority. She sees China as a stabilizing force in the region and says it’s important for Pakistan to maintain broader strategic relationships within southeast Asia and the West, including the United States. Though the conflict has cooled, nerves are still on edge in Delhi and Islamabad. Now, more than ever, Khar says, it’s crucial for Pakistan to continue to strengthen its military capabilities, including nuclear deterrence, to defend its sovereignty.
“The India-Pakistan region is home to one fifth of humanity, and to put them at stake because of political engineering happening in your own country is very callous,” Khar says, “The moment one nuclear state decides to attack another, you do not know how quickly you go up the escalation ladder.”
GZERO World with Ian Bremmer, the award-winning weekly global affairs series, airs nationwide on US public television stations (check local listings).
New digital episodes of GZERO World are released every Monday on YouTube.Don't miss an episode: subscribe to GZERO's YouTube channel and turn on notifications (🔔). GZERO World with Ian Bremmer airs on US public television weekly - check local listings.
Pakistan needs to stand up to India, says former Foreign Minister Hina Khar
After nearly eight decades of on-again-off-again conflict, India and Pakistan neared the brink of all-out war last spring. The intense, four-day conflict was an unsettling reminder of the dangers of military escalation between two nuclear-armed adversaries. Though the ceasefire was reached and both sides claimed victory, Delhi and Islamabad are still on edge and tensions remain high. On the GZERO World Podcast, former Pakistani Foreign Minister Hina Khar joins Ian Bremmer to discuss Pakistan’s response to India’s strikes, which she believes were unjustified, and why Pakistan needs to defend itself from further aggression.
One fifth of the world’s population lives on the Indian subcontinent, and Khar says putting them at stake because of a political conflict is dangerous because “you do not know how quickly you can go up the escalation ladder.” Bremmer and Khar also discuss the US role in mediating the conflict with India, Pakistan’s domestic and economic challenges, its strategic partnership with China, and the dangers for global security if the world abandons a rules-based international order.
“As someone who was representing this country as foreign minister, I used to wonder, why were we reduced to eating grass to become a nuclear power?” Khar says, “And now, that is the only thing providing deterrence and security against a country which feels it can attack us anytime, any day.”
Subscribe to the GZERO World Podcast on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, or your preferred podcast platform, to receive new episodes as soon as they're published
Why India and Pakistan can't get along
When–and why–did India and Pakistan become bitter rivals? The Indian subcontinent is home to some 1.5 billion people who share deep cultural, linguistic and historical ties, but for nearly eight decades, the Indian-Pakistan relationship has been marked by tension, violence, and sometimes all-out war. On Ian Explains, Ian Bremmer breaks down the complicated history of the India-Pakistan conflict to understand why tensions are once again rising after a military clash between the two countries in May 2025.
There are many complex reasons that India and Pakistan have become such bitter rivals. Bremmer unpacks four key issues: the partition after nearly two-centuries of British colonial rule, contested claims over the Kashmir region, the development of nuclear weapons, and leaders stoking nationalist and religious tensions for political gain. A terrorist attack in Kashmir last spring led to an exchange of military strikes and showed the world just how dangerous escalation between two nuclear powers can be. Watch Ian Explains to understand the roots of the conflict and why decades of tensions and war probably won’t be resolved any time soon.
GZERO World with Ian Bremmer, the award-winning weekly global affairs series, airs nationwide on US public television stations (check local listings).
New digital episodes of GZERO World are released every Monday on YouTube. Don't miss an episode: subscribe to GZERO's YouTube channel and turn on notifications (🔔). GZERO World with Ian Bremmer airs on US public television weekly - check local listings.
Russian President Vladimir Putin and then-Indian ambassador to Russia Pankaj Saran attend a ceremony to hand over credentials at the Kremlin in Moscow, Russia, on April 20, 2016.
The Kremlin’s piece in the India-China puzzle: Q+A with Pankaj Saran
When US President Donald Trump threatened 50% tariffs on India last week over its purchases of Russian oil, it put Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi in a quandary. Delhi has been growing ever closer to the West in recent years, but it also doesn’t want to lose its decades-long relationship with Russia – and it’s all because of China.
“India also wants to maintain a certain relationship with Russia – it keeps Moscow neutral when New Delhi and Beijing fight – which depends a lot on buying something from them,” said Eurasia Group’s South Asia Practice Head Pramit Pal Chaudhuri. “Purchases of Russian defence equipment are falling so oil [is] a useful substitute.”
To better understand why India’s relationship with the Kremlin is so crucial to Modi, as well as India’s views on the Russia-Ukraine war, GZERO spoke to former Indian Ambassador to Russia Pankaj Saran, who served in the role from 2016 to 2018. A diplomat for roughly four decades, Saran was also India’s deputy national security adviser from 2018 to 2021. This interview is edited for length and clarity.
Why is Russia so important to India?
For India, the primary strategic challenge is China, and it is not Russia.
India cannot afford to antagonize Russia, given the fact that in the last few years, Moscow has actually moved closer to China. So we have to keep Russia in play as a nation... The second reason is economic. We need all the natural resources and all the minerals and other resources to fuel our own growth and to meet our own demands. And thirdly, because of the fact that we’ve actually, historically speaking, had no real problems with Russia. We’ve had difficulties with the United States, with China, with Pakistan. But with Russia, the record is actually pretty clean, except for a brief period early on. And fourth, from a cultural and historical perspective, India and the Indian elite, regardless of the political parties in power, feel that you have to go and establish relationships beyond the Western world.
Is there a world in which India stops buying Russian oil?
Yes, sure. If the energy sources were to go back to normal, price-wise, India would also revert back to its normal, traditional sources, like the Gulf. Remember that, until 2022, India was virtually not importing any oil from Russia. This is quite a record, considering we have historically been an importer, and we have not imported oil from Russia, despite the best of relations since forever.
Note: There has been a discount on Russian oil ever since the European Union and the US placed sanctions on Moscow in 2022, right after Russia began its full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Read more here.
Is there a world in which Modi discourages Indian oil firms from buying Russian oil in response to pressure from the United States?
I can’t rule it out. What is also important is the Indian relationship with the United States. In today’s day and age, the India-US relationship has become very important, much more substantive than it ever was in the last 20-25 years… There is a lot at stake in the India-US relationship. He did stop buying Iranian oil during the first Trump administration. But the relationship with Russia is different from India-Iran.
Are the US tariff threats pushing Delhi toward Moscow?
To some extent, but it will not be a sharp swing to Russia, because the connectivities between India and the US have grown so much that it would be a very high-risk game to have any sharp swing towards Russia. But both Moscow and Beijing will definitely be quite pleased to see this sudden emergence of tensions between India and the US.
Turning to the Russia-Ukraine war: former US Ambassador to Russia John Sullivan said he believes Russian President Vladimir Putin doesn’t want a ceasefire and he wants victory. Do you agree with that assessment?
No, I don’t agree at all. I think this is the best chance we have to get Putin to enter into a ceasefire. And I think he also knows it. I think Alaska holds great promise. I think Putin is looking for a way out. He would be ready to get into a ceasefire, otherwise he wouldn’t go to Alaska... The question, of course, will be, what is the price he’s willing to pay if he’s offered a way out.
Is there anything you think Modi could do to encourage Putin to end the war in Ukraine?
This is a good time for Modi to talk with Putin. I’m quite sure that they’ve spoken, and I suspect also, there’s been some back and forth between Europe and Russia through the Indians… It is in India’s interest that this thing ends. I don’t see any way in which India would benefit from a continuation or an aggravation of tensions, which is not the same you can say maybe for the Chinese. Modi has tried to be part of the solution. He’s certainly not a spoiler in the mold of some of the Europeans.
Activists of All India National Congress burn an effigy of US President Donald Trump and Prime Minister of India Narendra Modi during a protest in Kolkata, India, after the Trump administration announced a 25% tariff on Indian goods, on August 1, 2025.
Why is India rebuffing Trump over Russian oil?
The days of “Howdy, Modi” are over.
Six years on from a gigantic rally in Houston, Texas, where US President Donald Trump and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi held hands, the two are fighting a war of words and tariffs.
The spat began last week when Trump, desperately seeking ways to pressure Russian President Vladimir Putin to end the war in Ukraine (Putin has ignored Trump’s demands to do so for months), slapped tariffs and threatened fines on India, the second-largest purchaser of Russian crude. The idea was to force Delhi to stop buying Russian oil, starving the Kremlin of revenue for its war machine. On Wednesday, Trump upped the ante further, announcing he would double India’s tariff rate to 50% later this month.
But Modi has so far refused to back down – his Foreign Ministry reiterated on Wednesday that Trump’s proposed tariffs are “unjustified and unreasonable.” Adding fuel to the fire, the leader of the world’s largest economy and the head of the world’s most populous nation are still feuding over whether the US helped broker a ceasefire between India and Pakistan in May.
So why is Modi now clashing head on with the man he once called a “true friend”?
Firstly, there’s a monetary component.
Before the full-scale invasion of Ukraine began in 2022, India only sourced 0.2% of its oil from Russia. Now, Moscow is responsible for roughly one third of all Indian oil imports, with Delhi profiting from a discounted price that resulted from sanctions.
“Indian refineries save about $1 billion a month by buying Russian crude,” said Eurasia Group’s South Asia Practice Head Pramit Pal Chaudhuri, a lower amount than previously – the Russian oil discount has diminished in recent weeks – but still significant.
While India requires this fuel for its own energy needs, it also uses the discounted oil to generate major revenues from exporting refined petroleum products in which crude in an input, like diesel and jet fuels. In this trade, Europe is one of India’s largest markets.
“Purchasing crude oil from Russia and refining it for the market (which includes European countries) has allowed India to not only profit from the purchases but maintain its political and economic relationship with Russia,” Manjari Chatterjee Miller, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, told GZERO.
Secondly, India sees this as part of broader trade talks with the US.
The savings that India has made from buying Russian oil have been “useful,” per Chaudhuri, “but losing this would hardly break the bank.” More vital for India are the broader trade talks with Trump, with the next round of negotiations set for Aug. 25.
“There is a belief in New Delhi that Trump’s tariff threats are being used as leverage to extract concessions in order to secure a favourable trade deal with India, reflecting Trump’s proclivity to connect trade and non-trade issues,” said Dr. Chietigj Bajpaee, a South Asia expert at Chatham House.
The US leader has used the Russian oil purchases to justify the pressure on India, but he has another trade interest at hand: he wants Delhi to lower its notoriously high tariffs and grant the US access to its vast agricultural and dairy markets, per Chaudhuri.
Viewing Trump’s moves as a negotiating ploy, Modi sees little interest in backing down.
Thirdly, the Indian public doesn’t want to see Modi surrender to foreign pressure.
Trump’s words have piqued some in India, especially when he suggested that it had a “dead economy.”
“They’ve been seen as a little insulting, to be honest, and it has certainly worsened public opinion [toward Trump],” The Asia Group’s India Practice Chair Ashok Malik, who was a policy adviser in India’s foreign ministry, told GZERO. Modi, he added, now “has to press back.”
This isn’t so much about Trump but rather about rejecting foreign interference, according to Miller. India sees itself as fiercely independent, with a long history of “non-alignment” to any one global pole.
“For India to back down in the face of US tariff threats and essentially downgrade its relationship with Russia will also absolutely not play well among the Indian public,” said Miller. “Modi cannot be seen kowtowing to any US administration.”
Finally, India doesn’t want to lose Russia.
India values its decades-long relationship with Russia, principally because Moscow is a hedge against its chief Asian rival, China. Delhi has long had tensions with Beijing – over border disputes, technological rivalries, and China’s support for Pakistan. While relations with China have thawed a little this year – Modi is visiting China for the first time in seven years at the end of the month – India doesn’t want to anger Russia by bending the knee to Washington, as such a move would risk pushing the Kremlin even closer to Beijing.
“India has a larger interest in keeping links with Russia,” said Chaudhuri. “It believes [in] a combination of ‘respect and money’ that keeps Russia neutral when India and China clash (so far true) and provides other geopolitical benefits.”
The repudiation of US pressure, though, may still have consequences for India’s foreign policy.
“Unless Modi and Trump can reach an agreement,” says Miller “this is an incredibly destabilizing moment for the US-India relationship, and recovery will be difficult.”
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi gestures during a joint press conference with U.S. President Donald Trump at the White House in Washington, D.C., U.S., February 13, 2025.
What We're Watching: Modi defies Trump on Russian oil, Bolsonaro put under house arrest, Israel proposes full occupation of Gaza
India digs in heels amid Trump’s tariff threat
US President Donald Trump has doubled down on his tariff threat against India, warning he will “substantially” raise the duty on Indian imports in order to stop Delhi from buying Russian oil. India is unmoved, though, calling the threat “unjustified.” This spat might not just be about oil, though – amid ongoing trade talks, Washington is pressing India to open up its massive agricultural markets, a bitter pill for Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi to swallow.
Brazil’s top court puts Bolsonaro under house arrest
Brazil has placed former President Jair Bolsonaro under house arrest, after he violated the terms of a previous court order by posting on social media. The right-wing leader and Trump ally is on trial for allegedly planning a coup after his 2022 election loss. The latest move is certain to heighten US-Brazil tensions – last month Trump imposed 50% tariffs on Brazil, blasting current leftwing president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva for a “witch hunt” against Bolsonaro.