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Coronavirus Politics Daily: Iran's parliament convenes, Americas become epicenter, India lifts lockdown

Iran's parliament sits (at a distance): They arrived in masks. They had their temperature taken. And then 268 members of Iran's newly elected parliament were sworn in, convening for the first time, with the appropriate distance between members. The body, which has no influence over foreign policy but does shape economic policy and the annual budget, is this time dominated by religious conservatives who are suspicious of engagement with the West, after many moderates and reformers were disqualified ahead of the most recent election in February. The new parliament has its work cut out: Iran's economy is in freefall as a result of US sanctions, low oil prices, and a coronavirus outbreak that was one of the worst in the Middle East. According to official data, which are widely suspected of being spotty, there have been 141,000 confirmed cases and 7,500 deaths. Two of the dead were newly elected members of parliament.
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Coronavirus Politics Daily: Ventilator shortage in Africa, India's risky reopening, exodus from the Gulf

Bleaker projections for Africa: For weeks, global health experts have been warning about the possibility of a coronavirus catastrophe unfolding in Africa. Now, as cases rise across the continent, the bleakest projections yet come from a Reuters report on the African countries' dilapidated and insufficient health care infrastructure. Africa has fewer than one ventilator and one intensive care bed per 100,000 people, while the continent's three most populous countries – Nigeria, Ethiopia and Egypt – have fewer than 2,000 intensive care beds for their combined 400 million inhabitants. The World Bank, for its part, says it has secured medical equipment for 30 African nations, but the shipments are still en route. Testing capacity in Africa is also extremely limited. Countries such as Kenya and Chad say they simply don't have enough testing kits on hand and are waiting for aid to arrive. To date just 685 tests per million people have been conducted in Africa compared to 23,000 tests per million people in Europe. UN models now predict that the outbreak could surge from thousands of cases now to 10 million in the next six months, causing up to 3.3 million deaths.
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A coronavirus catastrophe for the developing world

As Europe inches past the peak of COVID-19 deaths and the US slowly approaches it, many poorer countries are now staring into an abyss. As bad as the coronavirus crisis is likely to be in the world's wealthiest nations, the public health and economic blow to less affluent ones, often referred to as "developing countries," could be drastically worse. Here's why:

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Is Prime Minister Modi weakened by ongoing social protests?

Ian Bremmer joins us from Mumbai to provide his analysis on the news of the day in global politics:

Is Prime Minister Modi weakened by ongoing social protests?

Absolutely is. They're losing states, the BJP. You know, I mean it is absolutely true that there is strong anti-Muslim sentiment here. But there are also a lot of people among Hindus and in the opposition parties that see an opportunity to rebuild as a consequence. And with the economy doing worse, both those things are hurting him.

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Will Prime Minister Modi win India's election?

Indian election results are out on Thursday. How will PM Modi's party fare?

They going to do very well. Certainly going to take over government again. Whether or not it's by themselves or in coalition. I suspect the latter. What does that mean? It means a more divided India. That also means more money on infrastructure, more economic reform. India politically is as viscerally tearing itself apart as the United States or say, Brazil right now. I wish that wasn't the case.

Can the Austrian PM survive "Ibiza-gate"?

Yes, I suspect that the centre right is going to end up with more popularity. Squeezing out the big mistake. The scandal dropped by the far right Freedom Party. Kind of like what's happening in Germany right now as the Alternatives For Deutschland is getting squeezed by the centre right. That is actually happening to a number of populist parties across Europe.

Can Huawei survive the dispute with the United States?

They can survive, but I don't think they're going to be globally dominant. I think this hit is not only going to hurt their balance sheet, but it also means a lot of American allies are going to be very careful before they decide they want to work with 5G. They were not in that direction beforehand. They were saying, "oh yeah, it's cheaper, it's going to roll out faster." Now they realized the Americans mean business. The real question is: can the trade talks survive the Huawei scandal? And right now. That is in the balance getting harder to pull it off.

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