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Chinese President Xi Jinping and Maldivian President Mohamed Muizzu attend a welcome ceremony at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing, China January 10, 2024.
Maldives vote moves it closer to China
On Sunday, the South Asian archipelago of the Maldives held parliamentary elections, widely viewed as a referendum on the pro-China policies of President Mohamed Muizzu. Preliminary returns have Muizzu’s People’s National Congress Party leading with 66 of 93 seats up for grabs (with 86 declared), with 73% of 284,000 eligible voters casting ballots.
India out, China in. Muizzu came to power last September on an “India Out” campaign, repudiating his country’s historical ties to New Delhi in favor of closer links with Beijing. Since then, Muizzu ordered the expulsion of Indian military personnel and awarded significant infrastructure projects to Chinese companies. Earlier this year, Muizzu traveled to China to strike a deal that boosted Chinese tourism by 200%, in the wake of a 40% drop in Indian tourism caused by derogatory remarks made by Maldivian deputy ministers about Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi.
Muizzu was considered a proxy candidate for former President Abdulla Yameen, who held power between 2013 and 2018 and whose 11-year jail term on bribery charges was overturned last week. Under Yameen, the Maldives joined China’s Belt and Road Initiative in 2013. Both India and China view the Maldives as a strategic maritime hub in the Indian Ocean due to its location on major east-west international shipping routes.
Why Africa's power partnership with the World Bank should attract investors
There’s a word frequently used at global convenings like the World Bank Group’s Spring Meetings held this week in Washington, D.C.—multistakeholder. It refers to an approach to problem solving that involves input from a wide range of players—governments, civil society, private sector corporations and investors.
It will take a multistakeholder approach to bring an ambitious new project announced Wednesday to fruition, an initiative to provide electricity to 300 million people in Africa by 2030.
Of the world’s nearly 800 million people living without power, an estimated 570 million are in Sub-Saharan Africa, according to the World Bank. The organization is partnering with the African Development Bank and its own International Development Association to provide up to $30 billion in funding, but is also banking on private sector investment to help make this plan a reality.
At the meetings this week, GZERO’s Tony Maciulis spoke to Lucy Heintz, Head of Energy Infrastructure at Actis Energy Fund, a global investment company focused on sustainability. Heintz expressed optimism in the announcement and explained the reasons why it could be attractive to investors.
“This is a great ambition and it's a huge plan,” Heintz said. “If it's met on the other side by a real intent to do business by government, wherever those governments may be, in those countries where energy access is still lacking, then I think you can start to see the pieces fall into place.”
Heintz explained there are already tools in place that mitigate risk for cross-border private investors, such as the Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency (MIGA), a World Bank organization that provides insurance for noncommercial political and economic risk.
Success stories already exist globally, Heintz explained, with India being a prime example.
“India has put in place the right legislative frameworks, the right regulation,” she said. “It's also invested in the enabling environment. So, there's a very successful transmission grid investment program, which is led by the government, but then brings in private sector once those projects are de-risked.”
As for concerns about carbon emissions and environmental risk from expanding electricity generation, Heintz says there is a greater danger in not bringing more people to power.
“Reliable electricity supply is fundamental if you want to have any ability to mitigate the risks of climate change, whether it's refrigeration, cooling, the ability to earn a livelihood, it's fundamental,” she said. “I think that's the most important thing to have in mind.”
For more of our 2024 IMF/World Bank Spring Meetings coverage, visit Global Stage.
Bharatiya Janata Party supporters hold party flags while waiting for Narendra Modi's road show during an election campaign in Guwahati, Assam, India, on April 16, 2024.
Viewpoint: India gears up for biggest elections ever
The world’s most populous country will hold elections between April 19 and 1 June for its lower house of parliament, the Lok Sabha. The 543-member chamber is India’s primary legislative body, and its composition will determine which party or coalition gets to nominate a prime minister and form the next government. Over the 44-day electoral period, nearly 970 million people will be eligible to vote, the most ever. More than 1 million polling stations will be set up, and officials will be dispatched to remote corners of the country’s vast geography to collect ballots.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi, one of the world’s most popular heads of state, is expected to lead his Bharatiya Janata Party to a comfortable victory and secure a third consecutive term in office. We sat down with Eurasia Group experts Rahul Bhatia and Pramit Pal Chaudhuri to learn more about the upcoming elections.
What are the main issues for voters?
The chief concerns are inflation, particularly high food prices, and unemployment, especially among the youth. More than one-third of Indians believe they are worse off than before the pandemic-induced lockdowns, while about two-thirds say it is now harder to find a job. Though religious-political issues are also on voters' minds, they hold less weight than economic ones.
Despite apparent concerns about the economy, an overwhelming 75% of Indians approve of Modi’s leadership. He gets high marks for delivering targeted welfare schemes, upgrading the country’s infrastructure, and raising India’s international profile. He also gets credit for implementing elements of the BJP’s longstanding religious-political agenda, such as constructing a grand temple dedicated to the Hindu deity Ram and revoking the special autonomous status of the Muslim-majority Jammu and Kashmir region.
Modi has come under criticism for alleged anti-democratic tendencies – why is that and will this be a factor for voters?
Under Modi, press and political freedoms have suffered. Opposition parties have accused the prime minister of using government investigative agencies to harass opposition leaders and constrain their ability to contest elections. Other critics allege the government has undermined India’s secular constitution and its pluralistic values with its actions favoring the country’s Hindu majority population. While Modi's attitude toward civil liberties is not unlike that of past prime ministers who enjoyed a similar single-party majority, there are genuine concerns about democratic backsliding in India. Nevertheless, apart from a small urban elite, the average Indian voter doesn’t seem concerned.
What is the state of the opposition alliance?
Since the 2014 elections that brought Modi to power, the Indian National Congress, India’s largest opposition party, has struggled with a lack of clear leadership and an inability to craft an alternative political narrative that could capture the imagination of voters. It recently pivoted to an agenda of social and economic justice, but this strategy has not yet been tested at the ballot box.
Last July, the Congress and 25 smaller parties formed the Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance, aka INDIA, a big-tent coalition to pool their vote shares and create a stronger challenger to Modi and the BJP. However, the alliance has failed to cohere, and some regional parties have defected to the BJP’s alliance. Moreover, while seat-sharing arrangements had been agreed upon in some states, key regional parties have decided to contest their strongholds on their own, defeating the alliance’s purpose. The Congress and its partners remain far behind the BJP in the polls; they are not fighting to win the upcoming elections but rather to preserve their respective geographic power bases and limit Modi’s majority.
Modi has indicated he wants an expanded parliamentary majority – what does he aim to achieve in a potential third term?
Modi has said he aims to win 370 seats in the lower house of parliament, up from 303 at present. He is seeking a strong mandate to push through legislative changes – some of which are unpopular or challenge vested interests – that he believes are necessary to bolster economic growth. He wants to simplify the tax code and advance reforms on land, labor, agriculture, education, health, and electricity – which require the support of the states. A new Modi-led government would also continue efforts to upgrade infrastructure, including roads, railways, and airports.
Separately, Modi would seek to end India’s religion-based civil laws governing marriage and other issues and subsume them into a single uniform civil code – a process that has already begun at the state level.
Is Modi expected to serve just one more term? Is there a succession plan? What legacy does he want to leave behind?
It’s anybody’s guess whether another five-year term would be the last for Modi, who is 73 years old. He wants to leave behind a legacy of cementing India’s middle-income country status, raising its international stature, and correcting what the BJP believes are institutional biases against India’s Hindu population.
It does seem clear, however, that the BJP will face a succession problem when Modi steps down. The polls indicate that one in three people who vote for the BJP do so because they like Modi, not the BJP. As a result, the party might want Modi to contest the next elections in 2029 and then step down after that. While Amit Shah, the home minister, seems to be Modi’s preferred successor, he would probably face a leadership challenge from Yogi Adityanath, the chief minister of Uttar Pradesh, and possibly from Himanta Biswa Sarma, the chief minister of Assam.
Edited by Jonathan House, Senior Editor at Eurasia Group
A supporter of Rahul Gandhi, a senior leader of India's main opposition Congress party, waves a party flag in a public meeting during Rahul's 66-day long "Bharat Jodo Nyay Yatra," or Unite India Justice March, in Jhalod town, Gujarat state, India, in March 2024.
Can India’s oldest party make a comeback?
The names Mahatma Gandhi, Jawaharlal Nehru, and Indira Gandhi are synonymous with Indian independence and the country’s early development. But with India starting to head to the polls on April 19, we ask what happened to their once-dominant Indian National Congress Party.
A titan in Indian politics for over 50 years after independence in 1947, today’s Congress is struggling for relevancy. If it doesn’t find a way to resonate with the biggest voting bloc, those aged 18-35, in the world’s fifth-largest economy – it will stand no chance of ever facing down Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s ruling Bharatiya Janata Party.
Heyday and downfall
Founded in 1885, Congress leaders like Mahatma and Indira Gandhi, Nehru, and Manmohan Singh played pivotal roles in campaigning for independence and later shaping India’s political and economic position. While Nehru, the first prime minister, touted secularism, his successor and daughter, Gandhi, led anti-poverty campaigns during her tenure. More recently, Singh played a key role in making India the second fastest-growing economy by uplifting the country’s GDP to 9% in 2007.
But voters tend to sour on those in power during economic downturns, and a mix of high inflation and corruption scandals led to Congress’ worst electoral performance in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections. The party, headed by the inexperienced Rahul Gandhi, won just 44 of 543 seats, creating more space for the BJP.
Congress did only slightly better in the 2019 elections, winning 52 seats, leading Gandhi to quit the party presidency. His mother and one of the most influential leaders of Congress who played a crucial role in the 2004 election victory, Sonia Gandhi, once again took the reins as interim president for three years. Today, Congress is led by Mallikarjun Kharge, and it’s in power in just three of 28 states: Karnataka, Himachal Pradesh, and Telangana.
Lackluster leadership
Congress party leaders are struggling to connect with their base, and efforts to hurt the BJP with slogans like “the watchman is a thief” are not landing with voters. Initiatives like Rahul Gandhi’s ambitious Bharat Jodo Yatra and Nyay Yatra mass marches in 2022 and 2024 have failed to gain much steam.
Congress also “faces issues related to a deteriorating organizational structure and internal factionalism,” says Rahul Bhatia, Eurasia Group’s South Asia analyst.
As recently as last month, internal discord was exposed during the party’s selection of electoral candidates to represent the southern state of Telangana when complaints accused the screening committee of sending the candidate list without consulting party ministers. A similar case was also reported in Chandigarh.
“While the party has taken measures to remedy some of these [problems] in the last two years, it still hasn’t been able to articulate a clear political narrative that captures the imagination of Indian voters like Modi has,” says Bhatia.
Trying to build a worthy opposition
In a bold attempt to challenge the BJP’s dominance with a stronger opposition, Congress pushed to create theIndian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance bloc, aka INDIA, in 2023, initially comprising 41 parties. At first, it looked promising, but the departure of key players like Nitish Kumar and Mamata Banerjee in January has left INDIA in disarray, casting doubts on its efficacy ahead of the election. In the unlikely event INDIA wins, Congress has vowed to raise the 50% reservation quota for nationally recognized marginal communities (Scheduled Castes, Scheduled Tribes, and Other Backward Classes) to get them more representation in educational institutes and employment.
But INDIA is only expected to win 94 seats, with Congress getting 38, while the BJP is predicted to snag 399 constituencies. To secure a majority, a party or a coalition needs 272 seats.
Modi, 73, is widely popular with anapproval rating as high as 75%. “Under Modi, the BJP is a formidable electoral machine, and no one has been able to consolidate the Hindu vote as well as Modi has, drawing in lower middle castes, upper castes, and low-income groups,” says Bhatia.
For now, Congress “is not fighting to win the upcoming elections but rather to limit Modi’s majority,” he adds. The party is expected to retain roughly 20% of the vote and potentially win some state elections.
Should the BJP’s vote share fall, the INC could orchestrate a comeback at the national level. “The party is by no means finished,” says Bhatia.
But to get back to the power of its heyday, Congress would need to go through a complete internal overhaul, experts say. And the immediate problem, says Bhatia, is that Congress “is not ready to accept a complete restructuring, nor will it seek leadership beyond the Gandhi family.”
A volcanic eruption takes place, near Grindavik, Iceland, March 16, 2024, in this handout picture obtained by Reuters.
Hard Numbers: Icelandic volcano erupts, India sets election date, EU aids Egyptian economy, South Sudan schools close amid extreme heat
40: Just 40 minutes after authorities received indications of an eruption late Saturday, lava shot from a huge fissure on the Reykjanes Peninsula near Grindavik and the famed Blue Lagoon. The fourth — and probably biggest — eruption to have hit here since December nearly took services by surprise. The town and resort were both evacuated shortly after the eruption.
960 million: The largest-ever democratic exercise is set to begin on April 19 with a whopping 960 million voters participating in India’s parliamentary elections. Indians will head to the polls for seven electoral phases through June 1, with the count set to take place on June 4. Populist Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party is expected to secure another five years at the helm of an increasingly religiously divided India — but one that is also tipped to become the third-largest world economy by 2027. For GZERO’s guide to world elections in 2024, click here.
7.4 billion: The EU has agreed to send Cairo a funding package of €7.4 billion ($8.06 billion) between now and 2027 to help stabilize Egypt’s economy and wean it off Russian gas. The Egyptian economy has been hard hit by recent economic crises – most notably, the Israel-Hamas conflict in Gaza, which is impacting tourism and shipping in the Suez Canal.
113: Children in South Sudan are unable to attend school starting today, owing to an extreme heat wave that could raise the mercury as high as 113 degrees Fahrenheit. All schools have been ordered to shut down, and parents are being advised to keep kids indoors with the scorching temps set to last for up to two weeks.Activists from the Asom Jatiyatabadi Yuba Chatra Parishad (AJYCP) are staging a protest after the central government notified the rules for the implementation of the Citizenship (Amendment) Act, 2019, in Nagaon District, Assam, India, on March 11, 2024.
India enacts fraught new citizenship law ahead of election
The Indian government implemented a new citizenship law on Monday after over four years of delay that critics say may be used to discriminate against the country’s large Muslim minority.
What’s the new law? The amendment extends Indian citizenship to Hindus, Parsis, Sikhs, Buddhists, Jains, and Christians who moved to India from Pakistan, Afghanistan, or Bangladesh before Dec. 31, 2014.
Supporters say the law is meant to help members of those faiths escape persecution in their countries of origin, but critics worry it is one step of a two-part plan. In combination with a proposed national register of citizens, they say this law could be used to render Muslims stateless. When the law was first passed in 2019, it triggered months of protests and riots that left dozens dead and hundreds injured, which is why the government waited years to implement it.
Why now? Prime Minister Narendra Modi has never looked stronger, and he’s aiming to fire up Hindu nationalist sentiment ahead of elections this spring. Modi is expected to win comfortably, but he’s aiming to run up his party’s vote count as high as possible and solidify its long-term prospects.
To that end, earlier this year he opened a controversial Hindu temple on the grounds of a former mosque in a massive symbolic victory, which had been the site of violent confrontation for over a century. And to woo less spiritually motivated voters, Modi announced he was spending $15 billion on infrastructure in the south and east, where he hopes to make inroads into opposition strongholds.New Delhi, Mar 10 (ANI): Prime Minister Narendra Modi addresses the launch of Mahtari Vandan Yojana in Chhattisgarh via video conferencing, on Sunday.
Hard Numbers: India & EFTA sign trade deal, Oppenheimer's Oscars, Biden's big haul, Portuguese polls, Irish vote down constitutional change, New hope for Libya
100 billion: India has signed a trade agreement with the four members of the European Free Trade Association — Iceland, Liechtenstein, Norway, and Switzerland — aimed at integrating supply chains and opening new opportunities for trade and investment. The deal includes a commitment to invest a whopping $100 billion in India over the next 15 years to create 1 million jobs.
7: The big winner at the Oscars on Sunday was "Oppenheimer," director Christopher Nolan's historic drama about the invention of nuclear weapons, which took home seven prizes, including Best Film. The documentary "20 Days in Mariupol" also won Ukraine its first Oscar.
10 million: The Biden campaign says it raised over $10 million in the 24 hours following the State of the Union, which served as a de facto campaign event. It’s the campaign’s largest one-day haul yet. With a long eight-month campaign ahead, the Biden team has been stockpiling a war chest as Trump fought contested primaries (not to mention legal battles).
79: The Portuguese center-right Democratic Alliance took 79 seats in Sunday's elections, ousting the incumbent socialist party but falling well short of the 115 seats it would need for a majority government. The party's leader, however, swore he would not work with the far-right Chega party, which surged in the polls, to establish a majority.
73.93: On Friday, Irish voters rejected proposed constitutional changes concerning the concept of family and care in a nationwide referendum. The first proposal would have recognized “family” as a couple without regard to their sex, while the second aimed to strip reference to the role of women in the home. Well over half, some 67.7% of Irish voters, opposed the first, while 73.93% said no to the second.
3: Progress in Libya’s long conflict may soon be at hand: On Sunday, three leaders agreed on the need to form a new unified government to supervise the country’s long-delayed elections. Elections were due in December 2021, but fell apart owing to disputes over who was eligible to run.Rajeev Chandrasekhar addressing a press conference at BJP HQ, on February 7, 2024 in New Delhi, India.
A warning from India
Rajeev Chandrasekhar, India’s minister of state for electronics and information technology accused Google’s Gemini chatbot of breaking numerous media-related laws. Chandrasekhar, a member of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party, replied to an X user who showed chat logs with the bot where it pointed out that some experts think Modi’s policies are “fascist.” That determination, it said, was based on the BJP’s “Hindu nationalist ideology, its crackdown on dissent and its use of violence against religious minorities.”
“These are direct violations of Rule 3(1)(b) of Intermediary Rules (IT rules) of the IT act and violations of several provisions of the Criminal code,” the minister posted in response to the screen shot.
India has been keen to invest in AI and court major technology companies, but it’s also considered hardline stances when the technology poses a problem for its leaders. For example, it recently weighed forcing WhatsApp to break encryption and identify the creator of deepfake videos of Modi.
Meanwhile, Chandrasekhar’s outburst over a mere synopsis of expert opinion is an important reminder that governments will try to control speech – not just of news and social media companies, but also generative AI. We’re watching for whether AI companies will try to appease local leaders and achieve global scale by self-censoring their products on political issues.