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Russia's President Vladimir Putin and India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi walk during their meeting at the Novo-Ogaryovo state residence near Moscow, Russia July 8, 2024.
Indian PM Narendra Modi: a “bleeding heart” in Moscow
India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi appeared to take a swipe at Vladimir Putin during their meeting in Moscow on Tuesday, even if only a subtle one.
Just moments after the Russian president welcomed him to the Kremlin, Modi lamented that his “heart bleeds” whenever children are killed in war.
A timeless statement, yes – but the timing itself was a statement: The day before, the two leaders embraced just hours after an apparent Russian airstrike destroyed a children’s cancer hospital in the Ukrainian capital of Kyiv.
Moscow has claimed, so far without evidence, that the hit came from a Ukrainian air defense system. The tragedy occurred as Moscow targeted cities across Ukraine with one of its biggest missile barrages in months.
The nonaligned line. Modi has, gently, criticized Putin’s invasion before, but the bigger picture remains the same: India has kept up good relations with Moscow throughout the war.
In part, that’s pragmatic. A rapidly growing Indian economy enjoys buying steeply discounted Russian oil. But it’s also ideological. Modi is keen to show that while he is glad to partner with the US over shared concerns about China, India – the most populous democracy and the fastest-growing major economy – has its own prerogatives.
How the Supreme Court immunity ruling changes presidential power
Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week on World In :60.
What does the Supreme Court's immunity decision mean for Trump and the future of presidential power?
Well, for Trump, the first thing it means is that you're not going to be hearing about on the case of his involvement in January 6th. All of that gets punted until after the election earliest, assuming Biden wins and more likely these days, Trump. The case is kind of a dead letter. More broadly for presidential power. We're talking about immunity for all official acts that are engaged in during the course of a person's presidency. Now, in dissent, Justice Sotomayor, who's pretty far left on the court, has said that this doesn't prevent a president from engaging in treasonous acts and makes the president a king. Most jurists don't accept that, but it certainly does lead to huge questions about what is and what is not an official act. And of course, presidents would be inclined to argue that very broadly to be able to avoid the potential at any cases against them. So this is a pretty significant, not necessary momentous, but certainly very significant decision by the court.
With the far-right surging in the French elections, what would a caretaker government in France mean for Europe?
Well, it is more likely that we see a caretaker government than we see a far-right majority. And the efforts by President Macron and the left to ensure that they are not running against each other in the second round, triangular three-person elections make it more likely that you have a hung parliament. Then you have the far right in a cohabitation of this very unusual situation where the prime minister is opposition to the president. But what's going to happen is that you have a very, very weak French government and that almost nothing can pass in the next 12 months until another election would occur. It certainly makes Le Pen stronger. It makes it more likely that the far right is eventually able to defeat a Macron successor from the center in 2027.
And it also makes it more likely that the French budget is out of whack with the EU. They're not able to pass anything that looks like a balanced budget, that more parliamentary approvals for things like, additional support for Ukraine or training troops on the ground, would have a hard time getting through the French parliament if it requires such a vote. So it's a real challenge for the EU. It's a challenge for France.
Does the West have any concerns with Modi's upcoming visit to Russia?
Not really. The West relationship with Prime Minister Modi is very strong. Modi is increasingly decoupling the defense relationship between India and Russia. They buy a lot from Russia. No Indian technology goes to Russia the way that it does from China, for example. So you don't have that dual use problem. And India buys an awful lot of oil from Russia, at a discount. But that is in line with American and the West's policies, because they don't want a global recession. Modi and Putin, in principle, are supposed to visit each other every year. That hasn't happened. And so this is sort of getting that relationship in that regard on track. But I think there's not a lot strategically that the West is worried about near term here.
Apulia [Italy], Jun 15 (ANI): Prime Minister Narendra Modi departs from Italy to New Delhi, on Friday.
Will Modi try to mediate the Gaza conflict?
Historically, India has supported the Palestinian cause and advocated for a two-state solution. Under Modi’s leadership, however, Indiaincreased ties with Israel, including defense cooperation, technological exchange, and economic ties. Domestically, Modi has also faced blowback for a Hindu-nationalist agenda that critics say marginalizes the Muslim community. Indiabacked a UNGA resolution last year in favor of a cease-fire in Gaza but hasn’t made efforts to push for a truce unilaterally.
Does Mustafa see an opportunity? His renewed appeal comes amida possible shift in India’s foreign policy positions. With Modi’s BJP now lacking an absolute majority, coalition partners could influence policy decisions, including the government’s stance on the Israel-Hamas war. Observers also believe Modi’s desire to position India as a global player – and peacemaker – could incite his government to play a larger role in the conflict. Stay tuned.
Will Ukrainian airstrikes inside Russia shift the war?
Will Ukrainian airstrikes inside Russia shift the war?
Possibly. They will make it harder, a lot harder for the Russians to take or advance on Kharkiv further, which is the second largest city in Ukraine, millions of people near the front lines. And if the Russians were to take it or destroy it, level it, you'd have millions of refugees that would be streaming out and into neighboring countries. Not something anyone in NATO wants to see. That is what is less likely to happen, because the Ukrainians can now hit Russian targeting outside of Ukraine.
How might India's trajectory evolve if Modi secures a third term in office?
Looks certainly very likely he's going to get a third term. That's what we've been thinking all the way through. And another five years means strong economic policymaking. Consistency from a Modi who has wanted to make India more investable, a Modi that has wanted to make India more attractive to partners, multinational corporations, financial institutions all over the world. Having said all of that, he has been much more pro-business than pro-competition. And that, of course, makes ultimately India less attractive as a market participant and certainly for a lot of companies, as India grows than it might otherwise be. Still, you're talking about the fifth largest economy in the world on track to becoming the third, growing at 7-8% a year, from a very low base for the next decade. Modi's leadership in India certainly makes you want to bet more on India, not less.
What is the likelihood that Israel and Hamas will agree to Biden's proposed cease-fire deal?
On balance, I still think it's pretty low, in part because the Israelis are not prepared to accept a shift to a permanent cease-fire until Hamas is destroyed. It's not just about Hamas not being able to engage in an October 7th attack again, as Biden has suggested. And that is an arrangement that Hamas is much less willing to sign on to. So, right now, at least, it seems the overlap between the interests of the two combatants, is not yet at a place where we can see a deal.
NEW DELHI, INDIA - JUNE 4: Prime Minister Narendra Modi, BJP National President JP Nadda, Rajnath Singh and Amit Shah during celebration at BJP HQ as the party leads in the Lok Sabha elections amid the counting of votes, on June 4, 2024 in New Delhi, India.
India’s Narendra Modi – chastened?
Indian PM Narendra Modi still got more votes than any democratically elected leader in history (winning an election in a billion-strong country will do that). But his Bharatiya Janata Party suffered a humbling setback, losing nearly 60 seats and failing to secure an outright majority for the first time since coming to power in 2014. At last count, the Party of Modi had 240 seats out of 543.
Why did support slip for a popular leader credited with making India the world’s fastest-growing major economy and a leading voice of the Global South? Perhaps, after a decade in power, there was Modi fatigue. Maybe Modi’s polarizing Hindu-nationalist rhetoric didn’t play as well as he’d hoped. And give credit to the opposition alliance – led by the long-struggling Indian National Congress – which exceeded expectations (and polls) by capitalizing on widespread frustrations about inflation and unemployment.
What next? The BJP is still the legislature’s largest party, but it will need smaller and regional parties to form a government. That may mean slower progress on key but difficult reforms – to land ownership, labor laws, and tariffs – that are part of Modi’s dream of making India a global manufacturing powerhouse.
The biggest questions: Can Modi, a strongman-curious leader used to having his way, learn to be a team player? Can a once-powerful Congress party, which has been in the wilderness for a decade, turn this moment into a new lease on life?Modi 3.0: Make India a developed nation
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi is on track to narrowly win a third term in office, according to preliminary vote counts. Results show his Bharatiya Janata Party taking just 289 seats and the opposition winning 223, falling short of the expected landslide victory.
We’re likely to see Modi inaugurated within days, before jetting off to the G-7 meeting in Italy on June 13. Not a bad victory lap. For his return, he has laid out a “100-day” economic agenda that aims to put India on the path to becoming a developed country by 2047. That means building roads and railways, upgrading housing for low-income and middle-class citizens, updating labor laws, and concluding free trade agreements abroad, among many goals. With such a strong majority, the BJP will likely use a special “monsoon session” of parliament to get the ball rolling this summer.
Long-time India watchers will note the scant mentions in his campaign rhetoric of the Hindu-nationalist agenda that dominated much of Modi’s last two terms, and with good reason. Modi has largely fulfilled his promises to the ideologues, capping it off with opening the controversial Ram Temple in Ayodhya earlier this year. Now securely in power, Modi is looking to turn the volume down on cultural issues as he pursues economic development.
FILE PHOTO: India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi waves towards his supporters during a roadshow as part of an election campaign, in Kolkata, India, May 28, 2024.
Hard Numbers: India’s exit polls, China’s moonshot, America’s launch woes, African gold
3: The world’s biggest democratic event has ended with polls closing on India’s multi-week election, and all indications are that Prime Minister Narendra Modi will cruise to a third term. No surprise there, but Modi’s attempts to build inroads in opposition strongholds appear to have fallen somewhat short. Official election results are due Tuesday.
4.4: China’s Chang-e 6 probe intends to collect a 4.4-pound sample from the surface of the far side of the moon after its second successful landing attempt. China is the only country to have landed probes on the dark side of the moon, which is challenging because radio communications from Earth are blocked by the moon’s mass and need to be relayed by a special satellite.
2: Meanwhile, NASA delayed the launch of Boeing’s new Starliner rocket on Sunday for the second time after a crucial computer program failed to load just minutes before launch, pushing back the arrival of two NASA astronauts to the International Space Station. Boeing’s public relations have been in turmoil following multiple safety failures on its airliners, but a successful launch could make it just the second private company to ferry people to the ISS.
30 billion: A Swiss NGO estimates that over $30 billion worth of gold is smuggled out of Africa each year, with the lion’s share going to private refiners in the United Arab Emirates who then push the metal onto legitimate markets. The silver lining? With so much of the industry concentrated in the UAE, the NGO says targeted enforcement efforts could prove effective.
Modi set to win big in India's elections as economy booms
Ian Bremmer's Quick Take: Hi, everybody. Ian Bremmer here wrapping up my week in Mumbai, India.
And a lot is going on. But I'll give you a Quick Take given that it is the middle of the election season. So that is what everyone is talking about. Prime Minister Modi, coming out publicly saying that he thinks he's going to get over 400 seats, which would be a supermajority. That'd be incredible. It's also not going to happen, saying that to get people excited. In reality, it's going to be a lot closer. But it does look pretty clear that he is going to win. And that he is going to have roughly the number of seats he had last time around. Why? Because he is one of the most popular leaders in any major democracy in the world today, consistently 60-65% approval ratings.
Think about Europeans or Americans or Japanese or Latin Americans and how they would feel about those approval ratings. Why? Well, in part because India's growing, because the economy is at a sort of significant cliff. And they're investing in infrastructure, literacy rates are improving. Globalization is happening. It's still a very poor country. It's a poor country that is getting wealthier. And since the last time here, you can definitely see it. A lot of the new bridges and tunnels that are being built and buildings that are coming up, and also systems and services that are better. You know, I'm not seeing the same level of rolling blackouts, for example, or data outages that you saw before. And the people that are running corporations tell me that they don't need the same level of redundancy, (well, they still need redundancy), than they did 5 or 10 years ago. Quality of manufacturing is going up. More people are able to build things that really matter for global production, both in terms of componentry, also in terms of even in some cases, finished products like automotive and motorcycles. So it is an exciting story at home here in India.
It's also an exciting story internationally because India, of course, is one of the few countries that is trying to build a global model of leadership itself that isn't seen as at the expense of other countries. It's not really an India-first foreign policy. It's more India that wants to be seen as a leader of the Global South, but also a bridge with the major advanced industrial democracies assertively trying to act like a friend to the rest of the world, though there are exceptions there.
One exception is Canada, where you saw the assassination of a Canadian citizen, Sikh, who was involved in supposedly terrorism. But this caused a big flap between those two countries. Still hasn't been patched over. Not the strategically most important relationship, but not something you want to see. Also, right here in India, the immediate backdrop is kind of problematic. The China relationship is a little more stable, kind of reopening, you know, sort of getting some visas going and getting some flights moving. But still, it is a relationship with a contested border and not a lot of foreign direct investment, a fair amount of hostility still between these countries. Pakistan, also border challenging. Myanmar border, you've got a potential coup that's going on really challenging. So if you're India in your immediate environment, you know, actually feels very, very other than stable, it feels pretty hostile.
It feels like a part of the world that you need to spend a lot more money on defense. You need to build up your capabilities. It's one of the reasons why the relationship with the United States has improved. It's one of the reasons the Indians are looking to be a part of the Quad, trying to be a part of the new US-led regional architecture that is popping up in Asia.
But at the end of the day, if India is successful, they have to work with pretty much everybody. And that is something that I think motivates and excites a lot of Indians going into the polls for the last few weeks and going forward.
That's it for me and I'll talk to you all when I get back to States.