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Chinese President Xi Jinping, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Russian President Vladimir Putin speak during a meeting at the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summit in Tianjin, China, on September 1, 2025.
China’s plans for the new world order
The leaders of China, India, Russia, and over twenty countries from the “Global South” gathered in Beijing yesterday, marking another milestone away from the US-led global order. Monday’s meeting of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) saw China unveil a new, US-free vision for global development.
Xi’s plans include an SCO development bank that would lend in currencies other than the US dollar. Diminishing the dollar would make it harder for the US to use sanctions against rogue states, an outcome that US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent cautioned against in August. It would also limit the power of Trump’s “America First” strategy to draw countries and companies away from Beijing to invest in or relocate production to the US.
Beijing also pledged 10 billion yuan ($1.4 billion) in loans to an SCO banking consortium and 2 billion yuan ($280 million) of free aid to member states in 2025. The sums are not insignificant, but are dwarfed by spending on Belt and Road Initiatives in the first half of 2025 alone, where China's investments and construction contracts across 150 countries totaled $125 billion.
Winning the “memory war”
But China’s ambitions are not purely economic. Xi also launched a challenge to US political influence, saying, “We must continue to take a clear stand against hegemonism and power politics, and practice true multilateralism.”
Those sentiments will be on full display Wednesday, at China’s upcoming military parade commemorating the country’s role in defeating Japan in World War Two. According to the Brookings Institution, China is seeking to win the “memory war,” countering the Western narrative of the Allies’ victory by emphasizing Beijing’s role in the fight against Axis powers. The goal? To reposition China as a defender of the rules of the post-war international order, rather than an authoritarian regime bent on geopolitical supremacy.
India is a lynchpin
As the most populous country on earth, India plays a key role in Xi’s plan. Fortunately for him, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi made the trip to Beijing this week, despite border clashes with Chinese troops in 2020 and a recent “near-war” between Pakistan and India involving Chinese-made fighter jets. After meeting Xi, Modi stated that “an atmosphere of peace and stability” had been restored between the two countries.
US President Donald Trump’s reaction? To call America’s relationship with India “a totally one sided disaster.”
Modi took advantage of the trip to also deepen ties with Russia “in all areas, including trade, fertilizers, space, security, and culture. He was clearly undeterred by Trump’s 50% tariffs on Indian goods last week, which were putatively punishment for buying Russian oil. China is also further cementing relations with Russia, announcing this morning the signing of a memorandum of understanding to build the long-delayed Power of Siberia 2 gas pipeline, which will ship 50 billion cubic meters of gas per year from West Siberia to northern China.
Mixed messages on parade?
Xi’s parade tomorrow will take place in Tiananmen Square, where authorities infamously massacred student protestors in 1989. What’s more, some of the highest profile leaders in attendance hail from the world’s most repressive regimes: North Korea’s Kim Jong Un, Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian, Myanmar’s junta chief Min Aung Hlaing, and Turkey’s Recep Tayyip Erdoğan.
The only Western leaders on the dance card? Slovakia’s Robert Fico and Serbia’s Aleksandar Vučić, both of whom have been criticized for their own authoritarian leanings.Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Chinese President Xi Jinping meet on the sidelines of the BRICS summit in Kazan, Russia, on October 23, 2024.
Hard Numbers: Modi to meet Xi, European bigwigs set to reimpose Iran sanctions, Egypt cracks down on influencers, & More
7: Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi will meet Chinese President Xi Jinping this weekend in Tianjin in what will be his first visit to China in seven years, a sign that tensions between the two massive countries are easing. Border disputes, technological rivalries, and China’s support for Pakistan have aggravated the relationship, but the US’s tariff policies appear to be pushing them closer.
30: The three most powerful European countries – France, Germany, and the United Kingdom – have got the wheels moving on restoring sanctions on Iran that they had lifted as part of the 2015 nuclear deal. The action comes amid concerns that Tehran is expanding its nuclear arsenal again. The sanctions could retake effect within 30 days.
151: Egyptian authorities have been arresting TikTok influencers with millions of followers. One human rights organization has tracked 151 such people being charged in the past five years in connection with their TikTok videos – and the full number could be even higher. The arrests are part of a broader government effort to clamp down on speech they see as antithetical to the official definition of family values.
250: Seven US deportees arrived in Rwanda yesterday as a part of a deal the East African country has struck with the Trump administration to ultimately accept up to 250 deportees. It comes after Kigali made a similar deal with the United Kingdom in 2022.
3: Thailand’s Constitutional Court permanently removed Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra, dissolving her cabinet and deepening political turmoil in the country. She is the third of her family to be ousted from office, amid continued dominance by Thailand’s royalist-military establishment – despite her party taking electoral power from them in 2023.
Modi (not Xi) leads G-20 summit
Ian Bremmer's Quick Take: Hi, everybody. Ian Bremmer here and I. Happy post Labor Day to all of you. I'm in London for a very, very brief trip, but I wanted to talk a little bit about the G-20 summit coming up this weekend.
Big news to start, Xi Jinping is not coming. Why not? Lots of speculation, lots of news, lots of ink being spilled except for the fact that people should have known about this a while back. One, the Indian government had been informed at least a month ago that Xi Jinping wasn't planning on attending. And secondly, the Americans have been working on a meeting with Xi Jinping and Biden for months now at APEC in San Francisco in November, and that was widely expected to be the next time the two men would be in the same place at the same time.
Biden is going to the G-20, in other words, Xi Jinping was not. Now, that certainly means it's not a sudden health issue, not a sudden domestic economic crisis or political crisis that stopping him from going. It's a question of how much of this is Chinese irritation at their relationship with India. India's export controls, investment review and screens against China now are frankly stronger than those from the United States against China, not to mention border disputes. And the Chinese trying to limit some of India's influence and roles in multilateral organizations. It's been fairly chippy. I wouldn't say it's overtly hostile, but it's certainly not friendly. And, you know, Xi Jinping might see that he has little interest in turning up at a G-20 that is going to be in India. And is know sort of Modi's great party. Risks antagonizing Modi more, of course, by doing that.
But again, not a decision that was taken recently. Secondly, the fact that Russia is not attending and really can't attend, given Putin and the ICC ruling against him, the fact that the G-20, the one place that you have not been able to get any coordination at this meeting in any of the ministerial is around Ukraine statement. The Chinese have been aligned this time around more with the Russians on this and really don't want to be front and center with Xi Jinping being the holdout facing pressure from the G-20, from all the other countries to get an agreement done. And Modi would certainly be on the other side of that. So would the Americans, frankly, so would all the other attendees. China doesn't want to be seen in that regard as the only country supporting the Russian position. So then you have the issue of China having the BRICS, and that is a group that they've just had some success with a significant expansion to Middle East and North African states. That will happen at the beginning of 2024. It's a meeting that China has a lot more sway over. It is China as by far the largest economy and then the Global South as opposed to the G-20, which is everybody that matters and China certainly not feeling in charge of anything. So in that regard, Xi Jinping has a structural reason to make the G20 less important and make the BRICS summit more important going forward.
I'm particularly interested in how they play that with Russia chairing the BRICS next year and how many of the other BRICS invitees show up at the head of state level. It's going to be, I mean, quite something when you've got, say, the Saudis and the Emiratis and the Brazilians all showing up in Russia for a BRICS summit. I think a lot of them are going to be looking for cover and maybe hoping that one or two say no so that they can say no to. But that's kind of where we are. The G-20 itself should be quite successful. I don't think that it's going to be meaningfully different in terms of Modi's ability to show that he's doing well on the back of Xi not showing up, in part because, of course China's having so many economic challenges at home. While this is really India's year, Modi with very strong popularity inside India, strongest economic growth of any major economy in the world, and moving, driving a more assertive climate policy, a more assertive technology reform policy, and, you know, looking pretty strong in the run up to 2024 India elections.
So at this point, especially with Modi having talked with over 100 leaders in preparation to the G-20 summit and seeing a lot of irritation with the United States on the back of unilateralism, America firstism and questions of where the US is going post 2024. A lot of Belt and Road countries feeling like they're not getting the kind of support they have historically from the Chinese. This is a big opportunity and India with some role to fill and they've historically not wanting to be a big geopolitical player, especially outside of the region, that is changing a lot under Modi.
So we're watching that all weekend and I hope everyone's doing well. Talk to you soon. Bye.
Biden speaks to Scholz during an EU leaders summit in Brussels.
What We're Watching: US-EU gas deal, Putin's ruble ruse, China-India meeting
EU signs US gas deal amid Biden's European trip
US President Joe Biden kicked off his meetings in Europe on Thursday with a few big salvos. Ship more weapons and humanitarian aid to the Ukrainians? Check. Welcome 100,000 Ukrainian refugees to the US? Check. Zoom with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky? Of course. Biden also said Russia should be booted from the G20, a grouping of the world's largest economies, ahead of a summit later this year in Indonesia.
The G-7 countries and the EU leveled new sanctions on Thursday against more than 400 Russians, including members of the Russian legislature. But the allies still aren't giving Zelensky what he really wants: a NATO-enforced no-fly zone to let civilians escape Russian attacks.
On Friday, the US and EU announced a major new gas deal that will see the US provide the EU with at least 15 billion additional cubic meters of liquified natural gas — last year it provided 22 billion cubic meters — by the end of 2022. The move is the latest bid to help reduce Europe's reliance on Russian gas. European leaders have shown little appetite for following the American example of banning Russian oil and gas outright, which German Chancellor Olaf Scholz warned would trigger a recession on a continent heavily dependent on Russian fossil fuels. Vladimir Putin, who knows this, recently hatched a cunning plan to cash in on his immense energy leverage over the EU ...
Putin's ruble ruse
With the ruble at historic lows and energy prices soaring over Western sanctions against Russia, Putin has found his own way to weaponize the financial system: he wants countries that backed anti-Russia sanctions to pay for Russian commodities in rubles. Why? First, he’s throwing the sanctions weapon right back at the West and artificially increasing demand for Russia's currency to prop up the ruble. Second, the Russian central bank desperately needs to exchange more rubles for hard currency to avoid defaulting on its sovereign debt. Third, a stronger ruble will help mitigate the impact of sanctions on ordinary Russians, whose cost of living has jumped 14% in recent weeks. Putin hopes Europeans are hungry enough for Russian oil and natural gas that they will ultimately cough up rubles. But to do so, Moscow's European customers would have to open accounts in the few Russian banks that haven't been sanctioned. And that's risky business ... because those banks could next.
Will China and India make up?
China’s foreign minister is visiting India on Friday for the highest-level bilateral talks between the two Asian powers since dozens of their soldiers were killed in clashes in contested territory in the western Himalayas two years ago. Wang Yi, Beijing’s top diplomat, is meeting his Indian counterpart to discuss the war in Ukraine and related energy and food shortages. Beijing and Delhi — both chummy with Moscow, but for different reasons — have so far refused to condemn Russia’s offensive in Ukraine. The topic of Nepal will also likely be on the agenda. India and China have long vied for influence in the landlocked Himalayan country and are likely unhappy that Kathmandu is trying to reduce its reliance on them in favor of a tilt toward Washington. China has been trying to improve relations with longtime rival India for some time. Less clear, however, is how India — part of the Quad alliance aimed at limiting Beijing’s influence in the Indo-Pacific — feels about getting cozier with Beijing. Things got off to a shaky start with India rebuking China over its remarks about the contested Kashmir region.What We're Watching: Few Iraqis vote, Czech Republic in crisis, China-India talks crash again
Iraq's dud of an election: Just 41 percent of eligible Iraqi voters showed up at the polls this weekend, the lowest turnout in the post-Saddam Hussein era. Lack of enthusiasm for the vote – the first since mass protests in 2019 over political corruption and economic stagnation prompted a fierce crackdown – shows the depths of popular dissatisfaction with the political elite. The election came as Iraq grapples with crumbling infrastructure, a moribund economy, and ongoing sectarian strife among Shia, Sunni, and Kurdish players, with Iran meddling on behalf of the Shia groups. Preliminary results show that no candidate is on a path to win a clear majority, meaning that negotiations to choose a PM tasked with forming a government could take weeks or even months. Gulf countries and the US are hoping for a moderate who can ensure the stability of Iraq and challenge Iran's clout in the region. Iraq's current prime minister, Mustafa al-Kadhimi, in some ways fits the bill, having played a key role in mediating negotiations between longtime rivals Saudi Arabia and Iran.
Is the Czech Republic headed for a constitutional crisis? The country's billionaire populist prime minister Andrej Babiš suffered a shock defeat in elections over the weekend, edged out by a center-right "Together" coalition that agrees on little beyond the need to defeat him. But the plot thickens! The Together bloc has announced it will seek to form a government with a center-left opposition group led by the Czech Pirate party, but they can't do so officially unless they are asked to by Czech President Miloš Zeman, a staunch Babiš ally who was taken to a hospital over the weekend and remains in intensive care. Zeman said before the vote that he'd ask the party that won the most votes to form a government. That's Babiš' party, which was beaten only by a coalition of parties. It's not clear what happens next. If Zeman is out of the picture, the post-election responsibilities would fall to the speaker of parliament, but he's a member of Babiš' party too. With the current legislature's mandate set to expire in just ten days, the Czech Republic's relatively young democracy is now at risk of a serious constitutional crisis.
China-India high-altitude talks crash again: For more than a year now, China and India have been locked in a tense border standoff high in the Himalayas. The two sides even came to blows last summer; hand-to-hand combat between border guards left 20 Indians and four Chinese dead. Now each side maintains thousands of heavily armed troops, backed by artillery and air power, along the boundary. Over the weekend, commanders from each side met – for the 13th time – to hash out an agreement on who controls what. But each side accused the other of being intransigent and, for the second winter in a row, Asia's two giants will keep their forces in areas where the temperature regularly drops to -30 degrees Celsius. A new "cold war" in Asia?