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Federal Chancellor Olaf Scholz (SPD) attends the wreath-laying ceremony at Fronhof in memory of the victims of the knife attack at the Solingen town festival. I

What do East German elections mean for next year’s national election?

The far right prevailed in East Germany over the weekend, with the Alternative for Germany party, or AfD, winning its first-ever election in Thuringia and nearly winning in Saxony. The outcome dealt a blow to Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s center-right coalition government and boosted the far right and left ahead of the 2025 federal election.

The far-left BSW party secured third place in both states, making it a key player in upcoming government formation negotiations. Scholz’s SPD party – which barely managed to retain parliamentary representation in both states – is pushing the CDU, the only centrist party to perform strongly on Sunday, to partner with the left to box out the AfD. “In both states, the core of such alliances would be the CDU and BSW,” says Eurasia Group’s Europe Director Jan Techau, “which all by itself is a curious formation given that these two are at opposite ends of the political spectrum.”

What does this mean for the 2025 election? While the far right and left are much weaker on the national level, this election foreshadowed growing division in Germany – as well as Scholz’s rising unpopularity. It also showed that migration and Germany’s support for Ukraine will be the main campaign issues next year. “The AfD will mercilessly exploit these topics, and so will the BSW,” says Techau.

“[Scholz’s] ability to instill discipline in a very diverse coalition was never great and is now further diminished,” Techau adds. “He needs to deliver meaningful migration reform and a halfway solid budget for 2025. These are the two benchmarks. If he can’t do this … his position as the party’s candidate for 2025 will be at risk.”

Participants in a left-wing demonstration walk along a street with a banner reading "AfD ban now!". Several hundred people protest against the AfD's performance in the state elections in Saxony.

Sebastian Willnow/dpa via Reuters Connect

AfD makes historic gains in eastern Germany

German voters delivered the hard right a significant victory in Sunday’s election, as Bjoern Hoecke’s Alternative for Germany party, or AfD, captured 32.8% of the vote in the central-eastern state of Thuringia. The result marks the first time since World War II that a far-right party has won the most seats in a German state election. In neighboring Saxony, the AfD virtually tied with the center-right Christian Democratic Union, with 30.6% to 31.9%, respectively.

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Olaf Scholz popping out of a toaster, surrounded by burnt toast.

Jess Frampton

Why Olaf Scholz smells like toast

When Olaf Scholz replaced Angela Merkel as Germany’s chancellor in 2021, hopes were high, in Germany and beyond, that a shift to new leadership might reinvigorate the nation at the heart of Europe. The remarkable Merkel had led her center-right Christian Democrats, her country, and the EU through a series of crises during her 16 years in power. Scholz rose to the top three years ago by casting himself as both a steady pair of hands in the Merkel mold but also as a center-left leader with a progressive view of Germany’s future. When Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022, Scholz surprised many with the boldness of his response. The “new era” he declared in Germany’s attitude toward Russia and the countries still trapped in its shadow defied his image as a skilled bureaucrat without a strong public voice or vision.

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Migrants on board a ship which disembarked in Salerno, Italy.

Reuters

Olaf Scholz gets tough on asylum-seekers

The German government on Wednesday announced that authorities will start conducting “flexible spot checks” on border crossings from Poland and the Czech Republic to address an influx of asylum-seekers who have sought to enter the country in recent months.

This comes after Berlin recently joined Italy’s right-wing government in declaring that both countries had reached the “limits of [their] capacity” to take in migrants.

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French President Emmanuel Macron and China’s President Xi Jinping gesture during a press conference in Beijing.

Blondet Eliot/ABACA via Reuters Connect

Most of the world prefers not to choose

As the US-China rivalry deepens, many countries – including close US allies – have made it clear that they don’t want to be forced to choose between the world’s two largest economies. They are engaging in an increasingly delicate dance to try and maintain constructive relations with both.

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President Volodymyr Zelensky is greeted by British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak as he arrives Britain.

Ukraine Presidential Press Office handout via EYEPRESS via Reuters Connect

What We’re Watching: Zelensky and the jets, Pakistan targets TTP militants

Zelensky to British lawmakers: “Give us wings”

President Volodymyr Zelensky embarked on a whirlwind tour on Wednesday, leaving Ukraine for just the second time since Russia’s war began almost a year ago. Making a surprise stop in the UK, Zelensky met with PM Rishi Sunak and King Charles III and charmed British lawmakers at an address in the House of Commons. While the build-up to the trip was shrouded in secrecy, Zelensky was upfront about why he was there, imploring parliament to send Ukraine fighter jets: “We have freedom. Give us wings to protect it,” he said. Some analysts have suggested that Zelensky is moving too fast and isn’t reading the room properly: After all, it was just a few weeks ago that western countries finally agreed to send him battle tanks, and that came only after months of handwringing and negotiations. Sunak, for his part, said he is still considering the request but confirmed that the UK will help train Ukrainian pilots to use NATO-standard jets. Zelensky then headed to Paris, where he made a similar plea to President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, followed by a stop in Brussels where he addressed the European Parliament. Crucially, the US has not committed to sending fighter jets, and given that Washington and Brussels have been in lockstep on supporting Ukraine, this might determine how the Europeans respond for now. Indeed, Poland, one of Ukraine's strongest allies, said it would only move on the request "within the entire formation of NATO."

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The Crimea problem
The Crimea Problem | GZERO Media

The Crimea problem

Ian Bremmer's Quick Take: Hi everybody. Ian Bremmer here. And a Quick Take to start off your week. Just back from Davos in New York City, rainy and cold, and Russia, Ukraine is once again in the headlines. It is closing in on a year since the invasion started on February 24th, or for those of you really keeping accurate score, closing in on a decade since the Russians illegally annexed Crimea and sent their little green men in Southeast Ukraine. The Russians and Ukrainians certainly feel like they've been fighting for a decade, but the West recognized it much more recently. Since February 24th, and certainly very clear to me over the last week, we have seen almost consistent escalation from all sides involved, from, of course, the Ukrainians in trying to throw everything they can at getting the Russians out of the territory, at the Russians, from bringing more troops into the field and attacking civilians and broadening their efforts to in inflict pain upon the Ukrainians as their land war has met with significant challenge.

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Europe’s tough decisions: Russia, China, and EU unity
Europe’s Tough Decisions: Russia, China, and EU Unity | GZERO World

Europe’s tough decisions: Russia, China, and EU unity

Winter is coming and for Europe, a bleak winter it may be.

The escalating Russia/Ukraine war has united European support to Kyiv’s cause, but it’s also brought a plethora of economic, political, and social challenges. Inflation, a sinking Euro, and the possibility of an energy crisis brings to question just how long Europe’s support for Ukraine will last?

On GZERO World, Ian Bremmer speaks with German diplomat Christoph Heusgen, who served as his country’s ambassador to the United Nations and is now chairman of the Munich Security Conference.

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