We have updated our Privacy Policy and Terms of Use for Eurasia Group and its affiliates, including GZERO Media, to clarify the types of data we collect, how we collect it, how we use data and with whom we share data. By using our website you consent to our Terms and Conditions and Privacy Policy, including the transfer of your personal data to the United States from your country of residence, and our use of cookies described in our Cookie Policy.
{{ subpage.title }}
Marine Le Pen, president of the French far-right National Rally (Rassemblement National) party parliamentary group, gestures during the party's campaign for the EU elections, in Paris, France, on June 2, 2024.
Viewpoint: Far right poised for gains in EU elections
Nearly 400 million people across the 27 countries of the EU will be eligible to vote from June 6-9 for members of the European Parliament. These representatives will serve a five-year term and be charged with passing and amending EU legislation. But their first order of business will be to elect the president of the European Commission, the EU’s executive body. They will vote on a candidate proposed by the European Council, which comprises the EU heads of state or government, based on the parliamentary election results.
Amid intensifying economic concerns and longstanding fears of migration, far-right parties are expected to expand their parliamentary representation. We asked Eurasia Group experts Anna-Carina Hamker and Mujtaba Rahman why that is and what this strong showing could mean for EU policy and politics over the next five years.
What issues are shaping voter preferences?
Unsurprisingly, there is some variation across member states. According to recent Eurobarometer polling, security concerns are greater in eastern European countries that are closer to the war in Ukraine, whereas climate change and the economy top the list of concerns elsewhere. But broadly speaking, the economic situation, public health, the fight against poverty and social exclusion, and defense and security are key issues in most European countries.
Far-right parties appear poised for strong gains – why is that?
Amid sluggish economic growth and high inflation, policies to mitigate climate change and favor agricultural imports from Ukraine have prompted a public backlash to which established conservative and socialist parties have been slow to respond. The discontent spilled out into the streets earlier this year in a series of protests by farmers and truckers. Sensing an opening, far-right parties threw their support behind the protests and have seen their popularity soar.
A more structural factor of support for these parties is concern over migration, which really started to gain traction with the large flows of refugees fleeing the war in Syria in 2014. European countries have long histories of receiving migration but lack steering mechanisms such as functioning integration policies. Center-left and center-right parties have ignored the issue for decades, resulting in high levels of integration failure in European societies.
How big do you expect these gains to be, and what will be their impact on EU policy?
Far-right parties will likely expand their representation from less than 20% of seats to about 25%. Overall, that will not materially affect policymaking on key issues such as Ukraine, competitiveness, and enlargement over the next five years, which was already going to be difficult. But it will have an impact on the EU’s environmental agenda and its stance on migration. Far-right parties have already helped drive an overhaul of the bloc’s migration framework and dilute some aspects of the green agenda.
The next commission will have to tackle the next big phase of the green transition, which will involve more politically costly measures for households and firms to achieve net zero by 2050. Ad-hoc cooperation between centrist and right-wing groups on these issues will likely delay or dilute some of these measures. Nonetheless, it is unlikely to derail the EU's climate ambitions overall, as all the major party groups and the vast majority of national governments remain committed to meeting both the 2030 and 2050 goals.
What will be the consequences of these gains for domestic politics in prominent member states?
A strong result for the far right would likely have the biggest impact in France, where polling suggests that Marine Le Pen’s National Rally party will outperform President Emmanuel Macron’s Renaissance Party. That would increase the odds of a successful censure motion against the government in parliament that would trigger early parliamentary elections. If Le Pen’s formation were to win half the seats in those elections (which is unlikely), that would force Macron to appoint her or someone else from her party as prime minister.
Meanwhile, a strong showing for Alternative for Germany would further fuel the debate about migration and give the party a boost ahead of important elections in three eastern German states in September and general elections next year. Similarly, a strong showing for Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni’s Brothers party would reinforce its standing within the ruling coalition. Moreover, there is speculation that Meloni could offer her support for European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen’s bid for another term in exchange for a weighty portfolio in the next commission and policy concessions that would help Meloni’s domestic agenda.
What are the biggest policy challenges EU institutions will face in their next mandate?
Providing diplomatic, military, and financial support for Ukraine will remain a top priority for the EU, especially considering expectations of a weaker US commitment. A potential return to the White House by Donald Trump would create new difficulties for EU institutions, particularly on trade, as Trump would likely increase tariffs on European goods. Trade relations with China will also deteriorate as Brussels rolls out tariffs on electric vehicles and considers additional steps—and Beijing prepares retaliatory measures. Beyond these immediate challenges, Brussels faces the difficult task of doing more for its security by enacting more robust defense policies. Enlargement will be another important issue. Finding ways to shoulder the financial burden of welcoming new countries and tackling potential trade distortions that would affect some member states more than others will be among the priorities.
Edited by Jonathan House, senior editor at Eurasia Group.
Disgraced AfD leader Maximilian Krah.
Euro Parliament group expels AfD
Even the far right has its limits. The European Parliament’s “Identity and Democracy” group of populist right-wing parties – including the Alternative for Germany, France’s National Rally, and Italy’s League, among others – expelled all nine AfD members on Thursday.
The move comes just weeks ahead of European Parliament elections on June 9 in which the far right is expected to make serious gains. It also comes a day after Maximilian Krah, head of AfD, said he’d step down over two scandals – one involving a senior staffer being charged with spying for China, and another stemming from Krah telling an Italian newspaper that not all members of the Nazi SS were war criminals. But sacrificing Krah wasn’t enough – and National Rally leader Marine Le Pensaid her party needed a “clean break” from AfD.
The expulsion was a bold move, given the AfD’s popularity. As recently as January, it was Germany’s second most popular party, polling at 22%, though it has since dropped six percentage points to tie for second place with the Social Democrat Party.
Polls have predicted the Identity and Democracy group’s number of seats in the European Parliament could rise from 59 to about 84 (some predicted a high of 93 before AfD’s recent scandals). National Rally, meanwhile, is surging in the polls.
What does this mean? Apart from hurting its reputation, expulsion means AfD loses access to the group’s shared resources, collective voice in parliament, and possibly some funding. But it doesn’t mean AfD members can’t run. In fact, party leaders said Thursday that they remained optimistic about the election. “We are confident we will continue to have reliable partners at our side in the new legislative period,” they said.
Property investor Heinrich XIII Prinz Reuss and his lawyers arrive for his trial for a suspected "Reichsbuerger" plot to overthrow Germany's democracy in a courtroom in Frankfurt, Germany, May 21, 2024.
German prince goes on trial over alleged coup plot
In news that might make you wonder what year it is, a trial for a German prince accused of spearheading a failed, far-right coup plot began on Tuesday.
Heinrich XIII Prince Reuss, 72, is being tried alongside eight others — including ex-lawmaker Birgit Malsack-Winkemann and several ex-army officers — for alleged involvement in the scheme.
The suspects are accused of plotting to violently overthrow the German government by storming the Reichstag parliament in Berlin and taking lawmakers hostage. The prince, who holds a fancy title but is simply a descendant of an aristocratic (not royal) family, was allegedly set to become head of state after the coup.
“Slightly crazy.” Prosecutors say the accused are conspiracy theorists who believe Germany is being run by a “deep state.” The alleged plotters are connected to the Reichsbürger, an extremist movement that aimed to undermine the modern German democratic system. “They’re not terrorists. They’re slightly crazy," defense lawyer Roman von Alvensleben said of the plotters.
Though it’s unlikely such a plot could succeed, the trial is taking place against a backdrop of growing concern over the surge in support for far-right and extremist ideologies ahead of the European Parliament elections in June. Earlier this year, scores of Germans took to the streets to protest against far-right extremism and the German government has made tackling the issue a bigger priority.Alice Weidel and Tino Chrupalla, chairs of the AfD parliamentary group, comment in the German Bundestag on the ruling of the North Rhine-Westphalian Higher Administrative Court on the classification of the AfD as a suspected right-wing extremist organization.
Court ruling: “Germany can spy on the AfD”
Germany’s interior minister lauded the ruling by asserting the BfV had tools to protect the state from extremism and that “it is precisely these tools which will now be deployed.” Eurasia Group’s Jan Techau notes that, though we shouldn’t expect a sudden flurry of (surveillance) activity to emerge, “this ruling will not be lost on agencies in other federal states who now might feel emboldened to increase their activities.”
The verdict, from the Higher Administrative Court of North Rhine-Westphalia, one of Germany’s largest states, also applies to the party’s youth organization and a group inside the party known as the “Wing.” It cannot be appealed.
This major legal defeat is the latest in a series of setbacks for AfD, which has at times polled as one of Germany’s most popular political parties. Multiple scandals, including charges that one senior party official had spied for China while others had ties to white nationalists, have weighed heavily on the AfD’s approval numbers in recent weeks.
A demonstrator holds a sign reading "Hate makes you small" at a rally organized by the German Trade Union Confederation on "For Democracy and Solidarity" on Jan. 27, 2024.
A black eye for Germany’s far right
That’s one way to understand why the Alternative for Germany party, or AfD, was narrowly defeated last weekend in a local election in a place it has scored wins in the past. A recent scandal involving contact between AfD leaders and officials considered neo-Nazis – conversations that reportedly centered on plans to deport immigrants, including some who have German citizenship – set off a firestorm.
Last weekend, anti-AfD protests filled the streets of some 30 German cities, and that sentiment appears to have pushed higher-than-expect turnout among anti-AfD voters for the election in the German state of Thuringia.
There will be larger elections in this region in September, and AfD may well perform much better. But last weekend’s protests and local election results, from a place considered an AfD stronghold, remind us that Europe’s anti-populist political forces are strong too.
Protesters march while carrying placards and chanting slogans in the "Feminists March Against Femicide" in Kenya.
Hard Numbers: Kenyans march against femicide, Corruption costs Ukrainian defense, Germans protest far right, Evergrande tries to avoid liquidation (again), Say more than ‘Oui’ to Paris!
14: So far this year, 14 women have been murdered as a result of gender-based violence in Kenya, and thousands took to the streets in Kenya’s capital, Nairobi, on Saturday in response. Nearly a third of Kenyan women face physical violence at some point in their lives, while 13% are victims of sexual violence, according to a 2023 government report.
40 million: The country’s security service, SBU, says five employees from a Ukrainian arms company have been charged with conspiring with officials to embezzle nearly $40 million from defense coffers. The money, meant for buying mortar shells to aid the fight against Russia, has been seized and returned to the defense budget. But the incident signals how Ukraine’s battle against corruption continues.
100,000: Protests were held in 30 German cities on Saturday, with up to 100,000 people demonstrating against far-right extremism in Deutschland. The protests – coincidently held on International Holocaust Remembrance Day – were a rebuke of the anti-immigrant rhetoric peddled by the increasingly popular Alternative for Germany party, or AfD, just months ahead of three major regional elections in eastern Germany where the AfD tends to do well.
$300 billion: A court in Hong Kong ordered Chinese property development giant Evergrande to liquidate as it struggles to restructure debts to service over $300 billion in liabilities. It is unclear whether China will allow foreign investors to seize Evergrande assets, and there are fears of major ramifications for the Chinese economy as a whole.
A2-B1: If you dream of moving to Paris, you’ll need to dust off your Petit Larousse and embrace the subjunctive. While French competence was previously only required for those seeking French citizenship, a new law passed on Saturday requires anyone applying for multi-year residency to prove they understand French at the A2 level (advanced beginner). And a 10-year residency card now requires a B1 (intermediate) level of proficiency.FILE PHOTO: A placard reads, "deport AFD now", during nationwide protests against racism and plans of Germany's far-right Alternative for Germany (AFD) party to deport foreigners, in Bonn, Germany, January 21, 2024.
Can Germany defund its own far-right?
Germany’s Federal Constitutional Court ruled Tuesday that the small far-right Die Heimat party may not receive funding from the federal government because of its anti-democratic and ethno-nationalist goals. Die Heimat isn’t a big player in German politics, but the Alternative für Deutschland is. And as AfD is drawing the support of about 23% of Germans, according to recent polls, centrist parties are eyeing the same pathway to box them out financially.
The AfD has long taken anti-immigration stances, but some senior members may have put the party at risk by meeting with neo-Nazis last year to discuss plans for an extreme program to deport immigrants by the millions, including naturalized citizens. Hundreds of thousands of Germans took to the streets to protest, but calls to ban the party outright are likely to fail due to the high standards German courts impose on such a drastic move. Instead, the recent finding against Die Heimat is fueling calls for a similar motion against AfD, which stands to lose over $10 million in annual public funding.
It’s not all about morality, though. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s government faces a bruising negotiation over the 2025 budget, with a sluggish economy necessitating major cuts. The AfD could use the cuts as a populist cudgel to hammer the incumbent coalition in elections in the states of Saxony, Thuringia, and Brandenburg scheduled for September. Scholz’s government is struggling in the three eastern states — but if AfD finds itself light on funds, he might avoid the worst outcomes.Jörg Prophet, AfD candidate for mayor in Nordhausen, stands in the city center.
Hard Numbers: German far right comes up short, Ukraine dreams of drones, a space rock arrives on earth, world trade slows
54.9%: In an upset, Jörg Prophet, of the far-right Alternative for Germany party, lost a promising bid for mayor of Nordhausen the office on Sunday, as incumbent Kai Buchmann kept his job, winning 54.9% of the vote. The AfD has been polling at 21.5% nationwide, but has even more support in Thuringia, which is where Nordhausen is located.
$1 billion: Ukraine wants a drone army, and it’s looking to spend more than $1 billion to get one. Drones, Ukrainian leaders say, are great for reconnaissance, dropping bombs, and self-exploding on impact – all useful things in Kyiv’s war of defense against Russia. But what are drones not so good at? Holding territory.
6.21 billion: That’s how many kilometers (3.86 billion miles) a NASA capsule traveled to deliver the largest-ever asteroid sample to American soil. The capsule landed in a Utah desert on Sunday. Scientists hope the sample will help us better understand how the solar system formed and why life occurred on Earth.
3.2%: World trade volumes dropped 3.2% in July compared to the same month last year — the steepest decline in almost three years. High inflation is crushing demand for exports, while the resulting interest rate hikes are choking off credit, fueling fears of a global economic slowdown.