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No optimism after Austrian leader’s meeting with Putin on Ukraine
After Austrian Chancellor Nehammer's meeting with Putin, will more peace talks become possible? Is Shanghai's lockdown a humanitarian crisis? With the US inflation rate rising to 8.5%, what will happen if imposing further sanctions against Russia? Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week on World In :60.
After Austrian Chancellor Nehammer's meeting with Putin, will more peace talks become possible?
Was the first time a foreign leader from Europe actually met Putin in person in the seven weeks since the war has occurred. Did not go anywhere, no optimism, lots of war crimes, and the Russians are sending more troops into the Donbas as we speak. It seems pretty clear that Putin intends to declare victory. And before that happens, it is hard to imagine any utility of further negotiations. Doesn't mean you can't try. But I think we have to wait, frankly, until the military situation on the ground plays out more fully and then perhaps we might be able to get some form of frozen conflict or ceasefire. That's kind of where we are right now.
Is Shanghai's lockdown a humanitarian crisis?
Yeah, I think it is. 27 million people that are locked down, one of the world's largest cities, the wealthiest in China, and they can't leave their apartments. If there is one case in a large compound, that's it. It's incredible that they're able to test as effectively as they are and there have been some food shortages, but certainly nobody is starving. The fact that children have been separated from families, I would consider that a humanitarian crisis. There is some good news.There are some therapeutics that look to be about as effective as Pfizer's that are China made. And that means that in relatively short order you should be able to produce those at scale. That would make a huge difference. Maybe by the end of third quarter, you could have tens of millions of doses, and that could allow the Chinese to move away from zero-COVID, but they refuse to use Western vaccines. They have the tools right now that are available. They refuse to use them. I think when a government does that and forces this kind of hardship on its citizens, I consider that to be humanitarian crisis.
With the US inflation rate rising to 8.5%, what will happen if imposing further sanctions against Russia?
Well, first of all, the Americans have pretty much cut off the Russians completely. About all the sanctions the US can put on economically are there. The Europeans can cut off oil. They probably will. Gas, that'll take longer. But in terms of US engagement with Russia it's there. So I don't see further economic sanctions from the US mattering very much. Also, keep in mind, American inflation's higher than European inflation. Most American inflation of what we're experiencing now happened before the Russian invasion not after, in large part because of the pandemic and because of the massive US spend. That trillions and trillions of dollars in the hands of businesses and average Americans meant that more, it meant that the wages have gone up. It means that more people have some savings. It means that people could get through the two years of stop, start, stop, start of the US economy. But also means highest inflation levels we've had in 40 years. And I think that's going to persist. The Russia crisis isn't making it any easier, but it's not the largest piece of why we're experiencing inflation right now.
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Representation of Bitcoin cryptocurrency and Indian flag.
Hard Numbers: Indian crypto tax, Peronistas vs IMF, Guinea-Bissau coup attempt, Austrian vax mandate
30: India plans to introduce a 30% tax on capital gains from trading cryptocurrencies and non-fungible tokens. Last November, the government threatened to ban all crypto transactions after the central bank warned they pose a risk to the country's financial stability.
44.5 billion: A top lawmaker from the ruling Peronista party has quit over Argentina's recent deal to restructure $44.5 billion of IMF debt. Máximo Kirchner and his mom, the powerful VP Cristina Fernández de Kirchner, both reject IMF demands to rein in spending in order to defer debt payments.
5: The president of Guinea-Bissau survived an attempted coup on Tuesday night. Had it been successful, it would be the fifth military takeover in West Africa in only 18 months after earlier coups in Mali, Guinea, Mali again, and Burkina Faso.
3,600: If you're an anti-vaxxer living in Austria, you're now on the hook for up to 3,600 euros ($4,502) for refusing to get a COVID jab. That's the stick, but here's a carrot from a Viennese brothel — one of our top 5 crazy vax incentives of 2021.What We're Watching: Anti-lockdown protests turn violent in Europe
Europe anti-lockdown protests get violent. Pockets of unrest spread across Europe in recent days as tens of thousands gathered in several cities across the continent to protest government measures aimed at curbing a fast-spreading wave of COVID-19. Violent clashes broke out between demonstrators and police in The Hague and Rotterdam where Dutch cops opened fire at an increasingly aggressive crowd protesting the tightening of restrictions. Meanwhile, more that 35,000 people turned out in Brussels, while large crowds rocked Vienna, protesting fresh lockdowns that initially targeted only the unvaccinated, as well as new vaccine mandates. The state of the pandemic in Europe is not good. Germany recorded more than 48,000 new cases Sunday, the highest on record, prompting new lockdowns in the lead-up to Christmas, while deaths across the continent are also rising since the summer months, though they remain well below pre-vaccine levels. What's more, far-right groups, like Austria's Freedom Party, are taking advantage of COVID fatigue and anti-vaxx sentiment to encourage people to defy government rules and sow chaos.
Migrants walk towards the Bruzgi-Kuznica Bialostocka border crossing in an attempt to cross the Belarusian-Polish border in the Grodno Region, Belarus November 15, 2021.
What We’re Watching: EU vs everyone, Austria vs the unvaccinated, India vs smog, Barbados vs real world
The EU targets "everyone!" The EU on Monday unanimously agreed to impose fresh sanctions on "everyone involved" in bringing migrants to the Belarus-Poland border, where a diplomatic and humanitarian crisis continues as thousands of asylum-seekers shiver in makeshift camps. Brussels says Belarusian dictator Alexander Lukashenko has deliberately created this crisis to strike back against existing EU sanctions that were imposed in response to his sham re-election last year and his hijacking of a RyanAir flight this summer. Reports show that Belarus loosened visa restrictions for migrants — largely from Iraq — to serve as a transit point for migrants hoping to cross the EU border to apply for asylum. Details of the new sanctions aren't yet decided, but they are likely to target political officials, travel agencies, and airlines. Lukashenko has vowed to fight back, but he won't cut off the Russian gas flows that traverse his country on the way to Europe — Vladimir Putin quickly slapped down that possibility after Lukashenko raised it over the weekend. The question remains: will EU sanctions change Belarus' behavior?
Austria's lockdown of the unvaccinated. Beginning Monday, unvaccinated Austrians will be required to stay in their homes for all but essential outings or face a fine of 500 euros ($572). The move comes as Austria suffers one of the highest rates of new COVID infections in Europe. The country currently has a vaccination rate of 65 percent, which lags behind most of Western Europe but exceeds levels in Eastern Europe, which is experiencing an even harsher wave of the virus. The Austrian measures will last for 10 days and be enforced by police spot checks. The unvaccinated were already prohibited from entering restaurants, but the government says the additional restrictions are necessary to boost vaccination rates and head off a crunch at ICUs. Critics — including the right-wing Freedom Party — say the policy is discriminatory and violates Austria's constitution.
A different sort of lockdown in India. India's Supreme Court called on Monday for an immediate lockdown of Delhi, the country's capital. But this time, the threat to public health comes not from COVID but from the toxic smog that regularly pollutes the city's air. The Delhi government has pronounced itself "ready to take steps like complete lockdown," while calling on the governments of neighboring regions to do the same. There will be no in-person classes in schools this week, government officials will work from home, and private businesses are urged to do the same. The city's many construction sites will also remain shut down for three days. Delhi suffers from the exhaust produced by millions of vehicles, crop-stubble burning by farmers, coal-fired plants on the outskirts of town, and the open burning of garbage. By some measures, India is home to 13 of the world's 14 most polluted cities, and in 2019 air pollution was blamed for more than a million deaths.
Metaverse diplomacy. What happens if you run into trouble when visiting a foreign country? You call your embassy or consulate, of course. But what if you're in the Metaverse, a catch-all phrase for the virtual and augmented reality world Mark Zuckerberg wants you to spend a lot of time in? Well, you're in luck if you're a citizen of Barbados, the first country to open an actual embassy in this virtual world. The tiny Caribbean island nation plans to build and purchase digital "land," offer e-visas to visit virtual Barbados, and develop virtual transport to move avatars to and fro. What this all means in the real world is unclear, but crypto bros are very excited about it, and we don't want to burst their bubble.
Europe copes with terrorism; Poland's massive abortion rights protest
Carl Bildt, former Prime Minister and Foreign Minister of Sweden, with the view from Europe:
What is going on with the recent terrorist attacks in Europe?
Well, there have been both the attacks in - one in Paris, the awful beheading, the subsequent attack in Nice, and the attack in Vienna. They've all been evidently acts by individuals without any planning, without any coordination, without any sort of major other thing behind it. That's the good news. The bad news is, of course, that these things happen. And it's very difficult for the security authorities to deal with. I mean, the Vienna case, it's obvious that there had been warnings about this particular individual, and I'm quite certain that will be quite a number of questions to be answered about that later on.
Why are there massive demonstrations in Warsaw, Poland?
Well, that's really massive in Warsaw, if you've seen the pictures. Polish women are revolting against the government that now severely, severely, severely nearly takes away abortion rights. And that is, of course, seen as an affront by the vast majority of women in Poland. You will hear more about this, I believe.