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Estonia's Prime Minister Kaja Kallas speaks during a joint press conference with British Prime Minister Boris Johnson and NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg (not pictured) at the Tapa Military Base, in Tallinn, Estonia March 1, 2022.
Kyiv gets a strong ally in Brussels
Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallasresigned on Monday and is set to become the EU’s top diplomat.
Kallas, 47, has been one of the Kremlin’s fiercest critics in Europe since Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine. Her appointment as the EU’s foreign policy chief helps ensure strong support for Kyiv in Brussels moving forward — and comes amid palpable anxiety in Europe over the implications the US presidential election could have over the future of Washington’s support for Ukraine.
Former President Donald Trump has expressed opposition to providing continued US aid to Ukraine, and the fact he survived an assassination attempt on Saturday is widely seen as boosting his odds of winning in November.
The US has provided more assistance to Ukraine than any other country amid the war with Russia. If that aid dried up, Kyiv would be in a precarious position. Overall, however, the EU has provided more aid to Ukraine than the US.
Kallas, who has pushed for Europe to provide unconditional support for Ukraine, could serve as somewhat of an insurance policy for Kyiv — but it would still struggle without US support. Though it’s clear Kallas will use her new position to ensure Europe is prepared to counter Moscow’s aggression and ambitions, it’s less evident how she’ll address issues such as EU relations with China, and it will take time for her broader policy approach to take shape. Kallas will remain as Estonia’s caretaker prime minister until a new government is sworn in, likely in early August.
Dutch far-right leader Geert Wilders votes during an EU election in The Hague, Netherlands June 6, 2024.
Europe votes with the far-right on the rise
The Netherlands and Estonia kicked off the European Parliament elections on Thursday, with the rest of the bloc’s 27 member states set to vote on the composition of its ruling body by Sunday.
While each country will have local issues weighing heavily on voters, a few patterns of concern are crossing borders: immigration, the war in Ukraine, and climate policy, particularly where it intersects with energy costs. On balance, the far-right parties like Alternative for Germany, France’s National Rally, and Brothers of Italy look set to grow their seats, but barring a major upset, the ruling center-right coalition under Ursula von der Leyen is expected to stay in control.
That’s thanks, in part, to the far-right’s struggles to get on the same strategic page. The RN’s leader, Marine Le Pen, chose to distance herself from the AfD after a high official said not all Nazi SS members were criminals. That’s the kind of ideology-driven own goal that Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, who is concurrently serving as president of the European Conservatives and Reformists coalition in Brussels, would sooner avoid.
Italy’s first female PM has leaned hard into apragmatic approach, firmly backing Ukraine and advocating for the right wing to get behind climate policy while pressing for Brussels to do more to control immigration across the Mediterranean, much of which falls on Italy. That tack has made it easier for centrists to work with Meloni, and she stands a good chance of being von der Leyen’s first call after results come in. If Meloni plays her cards right — she’s played a weaker hand almost flawlessly so far — she can stay in the inner loop of decision-making in Europe. And, of course, if the centrists can’t keep her happy, she can join back up with the Le Pens of this world to make them regret it.
Protect free media in democracies, urges Estonia's former president Kersti Kaljulaid
In recent years, numerous reports and studies have emerged warning that democracies around the world are backsliding and autocracy is on the rise. A free media could be the key to reversing this trend, according to former Estonian President Kersti Kaljulaid.
The former Estonian leader said supporting free media is part of defending democracy. “Democracies indeed are always voluntary. You always have to go and vote and sustain our democracies, and every nation finally has the right to ruin their country as well. We've seen countries… give up on democratic path,” Kaljulaid said during a Global Stage panel on the sidelines of the Munich Security Conference last month.
But when democracies that have begun to crumble manage to turn back, it’s often because there is “some extent of the free media remaining in the country,” Kaljulaid said.
Watch the full conversation: How to protect elections in the age of AI
Watch more Global Stage coverage on the 2024 Munich Security Conference.
- Ukraine is fighting for all of us, says Estonia's former president Kersti Kaljulaid ›
- AI, election integrity, and authoritarianism: Insights from Maria Ressa ›
- AI vs. truth: Battling deepfakes amid 2024 elections ›
- Ian Bremmer: On AI regulation, governments must step up to protect our social fabric ›
- How to protect elections in the age of AI ›
Model of natural gas pipeline and Finland flag, July 18, 2022.
Another Baltic pipeline whodunnit!
NATO on Wednesday pledged a “determined” response if recent damage to a critical pipeline linking two of its members is found to have been deliberate.
Earlier this week, the Balticconnector undersea gas and data pipeline between Finland and Estonia suffered interruptions in what local authorities suggested was an intentional attack.
The 100-mile-long pipeline, which traverses the Baltic Sea, opened in 2019 to better integrate Baltic energy markets. It can send gas in either direction between Finland and Estonia depending on their needs.
Finland is NATO’s newest member, having joined the defense alliance in April. The country halted Russian gas imports after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine last year, making the Balticconnector its only source of the fuel, which accounts for about 5% of Finland’s total energy mix.
Investigators are reviewing recent ship activity in the region. Russia on Wednesday mused that it was “disturbed” by the incident. If a state actor is suspected, NATO will have to determine a response that is firm but proportionate.
The incident comes, of course, barely a year after the apparent sabotage of the Russia-Germany Nord Stream gas pipeline at a Baltic Sea location about 500 miles southwest of the Balticcoonnector. That mystery remains unsolved.
Divergent cyberattack responses: Estonia & India
During a recent GZERO livestream event presented by Visa, Priya Vora, CEO of Digital Impact Alliance, shed light on a critical aspect of digitization that often goes beyond the realm of cybersecurity: trust-building between governments and citizens. Priya recounted an intriguing comparison between Estonia and India in 2018, both of which experienced reported attacks on major government databases—the X-Road system in Estonia and the Aadhaar identity system in India.
The stark difference in the responses to these incidents was striking. While Estonia promptly informed its citizens about the situation, reassuring them that the issue was being addressed, India's reaction took a more contentious turn, with the government even threatening to arrest the reporter who had covered the supposed breach. Vora says this divergence in responses highlights the multifaceted nature of trust-building. It extends beyond cybersecurity measures and necessitates a comprehensive approach that includes understanding citizens' needs, effective communication, involving them in policymaking, providing assurances, and taking tangible actions.
As the world becomes more reliant on digital infrastructure, trust between governments and citizens is paramount. Building and maintaining this trust is not just a matter of technical cybersecurity measures but a fundamental aspect of fostering a resilient and inclusive digital future. Trust, as she emphasizes, is a multifaceted endeavor that requires proactive engagement and communication between all stakeholders.
To hear more about the challenges and opportunities that nation-states face when it comes to digitization, and how it could shape a more inclusive and resilient future, watch the full livestream here:
What Ukraine's digital revolution teaches the world
Estonia's digital revolution: a global model of efficiency
In a recent GZERO livestream event presented by Visa, Carmen Raal, a digital transformation advisor and expert from e-Estonia, shared some remarkable insights into the nation's digital transformation. Estonia, often hailed as a digital pioneer, has undergone a profound digitalization process that sets it apart on the global stage. Carmen explained that 99.99% of Estonia’s public services are accessible online, which includes a strong collaboration between the nations’ public and private sectors. Raal points out how this unique partnership has created solutions that are versatile and user-friendly. One example is Estonia's electronic identity and signature system which isn't limited to government use; it extends to online banking across all banks in Estonia.
The emphasis on simplicity has been key to encouraging widespread adoption of digital solutions. This also includes the process of setting up a company in Estonia. Raal highlights that it takes less than three hours to establish a company online, and the world record is a just a hair over 15 minutes. According to Raal, this efficiency, especially for small and medium-sized enterprises, has positioned Estonia as an administrative haven, attracting entrepreneurs from around the world under the concept of e-residency, which allows individuals worldwide to obtain a digital identity card, granting them the ability to run an Estonian company without physical presence in the country. This offers access to the European single market, showcasing Estonia's commitment to fostering a global digital community. Raal highlights how Estonia's digital journey underscores the transformative potential of embracing technology, not only for enhancing efficiency but also for fueling economic growth and innovation.
To hear more about the challenges and opportunities that nation-states face when it comes to digitization, and how it could shape a more inclusive and resilient future, watch the full livestream conversation:
What Ukraine's digital revolution teaches the world
What Ukraine's digital revolution teaches the world
The threat of the Russian bear has been putting its neighbors on edge for years, and while plenty has been spent on beefing up their militaries, there’s now a whole other line of defense: digitization. Kyiv has harnessed its digital technology to provide government services to a whopping 19 million Ukrainians, despite daily bombings and devastation.
How has digitization helped Ukraine navigate first a pandemic and now a war? What lessons can be learned by other countries? GZERO asked geotech experts in a livestream event, presented by Visa, about the challenges and opportunities that nation-states face when it comes to digitization, and how it could shape a more inclusive and resilient future. The event was moderated by Goodpods' JJ Ramberg. Watch the full discussion above.
In 2020, Ukraine launched Diia, a mobile application that connects Ukrainians to more than 120 government services – from digital driver’s licenses to business filings to tax payments, says Mohamed Abdel-Kader, who helms the Innovation, Technology, and Research Hub at USAID. He and his teams help countries adopt new technological innovations in effective ways. Since the war, the app – also forged in partnership with UK Aid, Eurasia Foundation, and private sector partners – has also helped address wartime needs. For example, it has helped Ukrainians claim benefits for war-related property damage, and, at times, has been used to broadcast news and video when other networks are down. It has also helped with Ukraine’s mobilization and enabled the reporting of Russian troop sightings.
Unsurprisingly, it was another former Soviet republic, Estonia, that emerged as a pioneer in digitization back in the 2000s. Being so close to that Russian bear – it’s just a three-hour drive from St. Petersburg to the Estonian border town of Narva – helped focus the digital mind. The country was already a digital leader, but in 2007, Estonia withstood a month-long cyberattack that crippled its government systems and digital infrastructure. There was speculation of Russian involvement, but it was a “blessing in disguise,” says Carmen Raal, a digital transformation adviser at e-Estonia, the country’s electronic government services. This is because it forced the country to focus on cybersecurity before it was of critical importance to private and public sectors. The resulting innovations, she adds, have made Estonia a world leader in cyber security.
Today, Estonia offers 99.99% of its services online, Raal says, including universal online banking solutions and super-quick business setups. It takes “less than three hours to establish a company and, of course, it can be done fully online,” she adds.
What’s more, Estonia offers something called e-Residency, enabling individuals from anywhere in the world to apply online for a digital identity with which they can establish businesses in Estonia. “We have over 100,000 e-residents, and they have established over 27,000 Estonian companies,” Raal texted me after the event.
When it comes to digitization, both Ukraine and Estonia offer models of early investment, evolution, responses to security crises, and government-citizen relations, while the Estonian services reflect how governments can help residents (near and far) embrace economic opportunity. But globally, there remains plenty of work to ensure access, equality, and trust.
Digitization, after all, is great for those in the game, but as the rich get richer, governments need to ensure everyone has access. Last year, 60% of global GDP was generated by digitally enabled businesses, and in the last five years, the world has added two billion new internet users.
As the trend of digitalizing continues, with technology transforming businesses and work, says Eurasia Group's Geotechnology Director Alexis Serfaty, “it’s absolutely going to create new opportunities and new wealth, especially, I think, in emerging markets with younger populations and with more robust digital public infrastructure." In other words, there has been record growth in access, but there are still 2.5 billion people worldwide who are not online, and better systems and expanded access could translate into exponential growth – if done well.
Expanding trust in digital systems is also essential – only 62% of those GZERO surveyed before the livestream said they had faith in tech companies protecting their data.
Challenges of building secure public infrastructure that expands participation in inclusive ways, says Priya Vora, CEO of Digital Impact Alliance, are universal, and there’s a lot more work to be done. “I don’t think any country has figured it out yet,” she says.
Digital accessibility and digitization of services, along with digital skills, government oversight, and user trust need to grow in tandem to foster greater economic growth.
Hitting the right balance of government oversight will be key to getting this all right, says Rajiv Garodia, Visa’s global head of government solutions, who works with governments around the globe on digitization. He calls for a sound economic model and infrastructures designed with operational resilience, along with clear roles and responsibilities laid out for both the public and private sectors.
Global crises, like the ongoing war in Ukraine, also present opportunities for innovation and growth. Despite its current plight, Kyiv is making strides in a key sector that’s only becoming more important.
Watch the video above to hear the experts discuss the power of digitization – both amid war and for public and private sector growth.
NATO unity & how to end war in Ukraine
What a difference a year makes. As the world marks the first anniversary of the war in Ukraine, Zelensky's military has performed far better against Russia than even some of its staunchest supporters expected when the war began. And Putin's illegal invasion of a sovereign neighbor has rallied the West to Kyiv's cause.
Ian Bremmer is on the ground in Germany for the annual Munich Security Conference to ask world leaders how much further the West is willing to go in its support for Ukraine.
Estonia’s Prime Minister Kaja Kallas has been called Europe’s new Iron Lady, and says no Russian war crime should go unpunished. And NATO’s Deputy Secretary General Mircea Geoană offers a candid assessment of a war that has no clear end in sight. Ian speaks to them both.
Watch "GZERO World with Ian Bremmer" on public television stations across the US. Check local listings.