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FILE PHOTO: Hungary's Prime Minister Viktor Orban and Italy's Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni attend a European Union leaders' summit in Brussels, Belgium, June 27, 2024.
Austrian, Hungarian, and Czech far-right form new EU coalition
What is this, a Hapsburg revival? Right-wingers from the political core of the former Austro-Hungarian Empire announced Sunday they would form a new Russia-leaning alliance in the EU parliament. Austria’s Freedom Party, Hungary’s Fidesz, and the Czech Republic’s Action of Dissatisfied Citizens, aka ANO, have committed, but the “Patriots of Europe” alliance needs at least one MP from four other EU member states to become an official faction, which they seem confident of obtaining.
The move draws a clear cleavage in the far-right camp between pro- and anti-Ukraine parties on Europe’s far right. Italian Prime Minister GiorgiaMeloni has forged a pragmatic path to electability by leaning heavily into support for Ukraine and the EU while insisting on hardline immigration policies. It’s paid off for her, but her approaches – and meteoric rise – haven’t sat well with some of the Euroskeptic, Russia-friendly old guard. This new alliance is their play for greater relevance in Brussels, to avoid being overshadowed by Meloni’s new kids on the populist bloc.
What we’re watching: Does Alternative for Germany, recently expelled from Marine Le Pen’s Identity and Democracy faction, join them? AfD won 16% of the vote in Germany during this month’s EU Parliament elections, and their allegiance would elevate Patriots for Europe. That said, the far right is already divided between Le Pen’s Identity and Democracy and Meloni’s European Conservatives and Reformists. Slicing off another piece only helps centrists like European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen sleep a little easier.
Hunter Biden's convictions won't derail his father's re-election bid
Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week on World In :60, live from the Toronto US-Canada Summit.
What are the implications of Hunter Biden's convictions for his father's presidential campaign?
You know, it's a little bit of tit for tat. You're going to see a lot of Republicans saying, “See the Biden crime family! Look at this guy. I mean, he's a convict.” It's ugly. It's embarrassing for the Biden family, of course. But at the same time, it's not very significant charges and it certainly doesn't link directly to President Biden. Five months away, are people going to be talking about this or Trump's 34 convictions, the weakest of the cases that he's actually facing? I suspect neither of them are going to matter very much, even though, on balance, Trump's is the one that should matter more.
Will recent EU elections bring a dramatic shift to Europe or more of the same?
Well, overall, the European Parliament looks a lot like the old European Parliament. A few more seats for the right wing, but the far-right is not very aligned, doesn't work cohesively. I still think Ursula von der Leyen is going to be, yet again, European Commission president. And in many countries the populist, the anti-establishment did a lot worse. In Sweden, for example, in Portugal and others. On balance, there's not much change here. Two things that matter one a little bit is that Schulz and his Social Democrats really underperformed. The German economy not doing well, he's not seen as much of a leader. A three-party coalition, Germany, largely centrist and pretty stable no matter what. Much bigger: France. Macron's party, historically, got pasted. That's why he's called for parliamentary elections in just a few weeks. And when they happen, if Le Pen's party, the National Rally, wins and they're able to put forward a prime minister, there's is a major, major problem for governance in France and for the need of anything that the EU has to have parliamentary approval in France to get done, and that includes the Ukraine problem going forward.
How Canadians viewing the impending Biden Trump rematch?
You know, in some ways a little more comfortably than they did the last time around because the US-Mexico-Canada agreement's already in place and Trump got it done with this Canadian government. So, I think that they feel a little like, “Hey, we dealt with them once, we can deal with them again.” There's much more strategy and strategic alignment in the importance of the US-Canada relationship today than there was five, 10 years ago, in part because on China they're much more aligned, on things like, major wars outside of this part of the world, they're much more aligned, on Haiti, they're much more aligned. But also keep in mind that Canada's also facing an election in a year. And right now, it looks like the Tories, the conservatives in Canada, would win big, ahead by over 20 points. In which case you'd have a Canadian government and a US government, if Trump were to win, that would be very aligned. Just on a very different part of the political spectrum. Either way, very friendly and very stable relationship, which is more than we can say for most of them around the world.
Macron's call for a snap election in France is a huge gamble
What happened in the European Parliament elections? Why is President Macron calling for a snap election in France? Carl Bildt, former prime minister of Sweden and co-chair of the European Council on Foreign Relations, shares his perspective on European politics from Berlin, Germany.
What happened in the European Parliament elections?
Well, there was a shift, no question, but not the fundamental shift to the far-right that quite a number of pundits have been speculating about. If you look at what's been the sort o, the governing coalition, if you might use that phrase, of the center-right DPP, the Social Democrats, and the liberals Renew, they used to have roughly 59% of the seats in the European Parliament. They now have 56% of the seats in the European Parliament. It is a shift, no question about that, but hardly a fundamental one. And I don't think you will see much of a shift in policies resulting out of that.
Why is President Macron calling for a snap election in France?
Well, of course, even if there wasn't the major shift in European Parliament, there was a significant shift in individual countries. And, most dramatically, it was in France where President Macron suffered a very significant setback with the far-right, combined, getting roughly 40% of the electorate. Well, he decided this can't go on. So, he dissolved the National Assembly, called for new elections, got to be, sort of, in the early July, the decisive round. It’s a huge gamble. He might not have had much of a choice, but it’s a gamble anyhow. Will we end up with some sort of cohabitation between President Macron and elements of the nationalist right to France? Remains to be seen, but highly likely. Or will he succeed to mobilize those that are against this development in the country? That also remains to be seen. But that, of course, is going to have a fairly fundamental impact on what happened, not only in France but in the rest of Europe as well.
- Left in the dust: European voters swing right ›
- How the EU Parliament elections work ›
- Biden and Macron give Ukraine roadmap ›
- Macron rolls the dice on France’s future ›
- Hunter Biden's convictions won't derail his father's re-election bid - GZERO Media ›
- Kylian Mbappé attacks France’s far right before Euros kickoff - GZERO Media ›
- Macron's snap election gamble will have repercussions for France and EU - GZERO Media ›
Denmark's Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen gives her Constitution Day in Copenhagen, Denmark, on June 5, 2024.
Danish PM attacked in the street
Political violence is surging – even where you’d least expect it.
Danish PM Mette Frederiksen was attacked on a Copenhagen street on Friday, just two days before her country votes in EU Parliament elections. Her Social Democrats are the largest party in Denmark’s government, but they’ve been losing support in recent months.
Following a campaign event, a man reportedly walked up to Frederiksen and hit her in the city center late Friday. She was left in shock, and the assailant was arrested.
Fellow European politicians are taking to social media to offer support and condemn the attack, which comes just weeks after Slovakian PM Robert Fico survived a May 15 assassination attempt.
As we wrote earlier this week, scholars and police have been growing increasingly worried about the risk of political violence in both the US and Canada as both countries head into election cycles this year and next. But Europe is already in the throes of a tumultuous European election in which – amid sharp debates about immigration – the far right is expected to gain seats.
Stay tuned: We’ll be watching to see how Frederiksen bounces back from the attack, and how Danes and Europeans more broadly vote in the days ahead.
Dutch far-right leader Geert Wilders votes during an EU election in The Hague, Netherlands June 6, 2024.
Europe votes with the far-right on the rise
The Netherlands and Estonia kicked off the European Parliament elections on Thursday, with the rest of the bloc’s 27 member states set to vote on the composition of its ruling body by Sunday.
While each country will have local issues weighing heavily on voters, a few patterns of concern are crossing borders: immigration, the war in Ukraine, and climate policy, particularly where it intersects with energy costs. On balance, the far-right parties like Alternative for Germany, France’s National Rally, and Brothers of Italy look set to grow their seats, but barring a major upset, the ruling center-right coalition under Ursula von der Leyen is expected to stay in control.
That’s thanks, in part, to the far-right’s struggles to get on the same strategic page. The RN’s leader, Marine Le Pen, chose to distance herself from the AfD after a high official said not all Nazi SS members were criminals. That’s the kind of ideology-driven own goal that Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, who is concurrently serving as president of the European Conservatives and Reformists coalition in Brussels, would sooner avoid.
Italy’s first female PM has leaned hard into apragmatic approach, firmly backing Ukraine and advocating for the right wing to get behind climate policy while pressing for Brussels to do more to control immigration across the Mediterranean, much of which falls on Italy. That tack has made it easier for centrists to work with Meloni, and she stands a good chance of being von der Leyen’s first call after results come in. If Meloni plays her cards right — she’s played a weaker hand almost flawlessly so far — she can stay in the inner loop of decision-making in Europe. And, of course, if the centrists can’t keep her happy, she can join back up with the Le Pens of this world to make them regret it.
Marine Le Pen, president of the French far-right National Rally (Rassemblement National) party parliamentary group, gestures during the party's campaign for the EU elections, in Paris, France, on June 2, 2024.
Viewpoint: Far right poised for gains in EU elections
Nearly 400 million people across the 27 countries of the EU will be eligible to vote from June 6-9 for members of the European Parliament. These representatives will serve a five-year term and be charged with passing and amending EU legislation. But their first order of business will be to elect the president of the European Commission, the EU’s executive body. They will vote on a candidate proposed by the European Council, which comprises the EU heads of state or government, based on the parliamentary election results.
Amid intensifying economic concerns and longstanding fears of migration, far-right parties are expected to expand their parliamentary representation. We asked Eurasia Group experts Anna-Carina Hamker and Mujtaba Rahman why that is and what this strong showing could mean for EU policy and politics over the next five years.
What issues are shaping voter preferences?
Unsurprisingly, there is some variation across member states. According to recent Eurobarometer polling, security concerns are greater in eastern European countries that are closer to the war in Ukraine, whereas climate change and the economy top the list of concerns elsewhere. But broadly speaking, the economic situation, public health, the fight against poverty and social exclusion, and defense and security are key issues in most European countries.
Far-right parties appear poised for strong gains – why is that?
Amid sluggish economic growth and high inflation, policies to mitigate climate change and favor agricultural imports from Ukraine have prompted a public backlash to which established conservative and socialist parties have been slow to respond. The discontent spilled out into the streets earlier this year in a series of protests by farmers and truckers. Sensing an opening, far-right parties threw their support behind the protests and have seen their popularity soar.
A more structural factor of support for these parties is concern over migration, which really started to gain traction with the large flows of refugees fleeing the war in Syria in 2014. European countries have long histories of receiving migration but lack steering mechanisms such as functioning integration policies. Center-left and center-right parties have ignored the issue for decades, resulting in high levels of integration failure in European societies.
How big do you expect these gains to be, and what will be their impact on EU policy?
Far-right parties will likely expand their representation from less than 20% of seats to about 25%. Overall, that will not materially affect policymaking on key issues such as Ukraine, competitiveness, and enlargement over the next five years, which was already going to be difficult. But it will have an impact on the EU’s environmental agenda and its stance on migration. Far-right parties have already helped drive an overhaul of the bloc’s migration framework and dilute some aspects of the green agenda.
The next commission will have to tackle the next big phase of the green transition, which will involve more politically costly measures for households and firms to achieve net zero by 2050. Ad-hoc cooperation between centrist and right-wing groups on these issues will likely delay or dilute some of these measures. Nonetheless, it is unlikely to derail the EU's climate ambitions overall, as all the major party groups and the vast majority of national governments remain committed to meeting both the 2030 and 2050 goals.
What will be the consequences of these gains for domestic politics in prominent member states?
A strong result for the far right would likely have the biggest impact in France, where polling suggests that Marine Le Pen’s National Rally party will outperform President Emmanuel Macron’s Renaissance Party. That would increase the odds of a successful censure motion against the government in parliament that would trigger early parliamentary elections. If Le Pen’s formation were to win half the seats in those elections (which is unlikely), that would force Macron to appoint her or someone else from her party as prime minister.
Meanwhile, a strong showing for Alternative for Germany would further fuel the debate about migration and give the party a boost ahead of important elections in three eastern German states in September and general elections next year. Similarly, a strong showing for Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni’s Brothers party would reinforce its standing within the ruling coalition. Moreover, there is speculation that Meloni could offer her support for European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen’s bid for another term in exchange for a weighty portfolio in the next commission and policy concessions that would help Meloni’s domestic agenda.
What are the biggest policy challenges EU institutions will face in their next mandate?
Providing diplomatic, military, and financial support for Ukraine will remain a top priority for the EU, especially considering expectations of a weaker US commitment. A potential return to the White House by Donald Trump would create new difficulties for EU institutions, particularly on trade, as Trump would likely increase tariffs on European goods. Trade relations with China will also deteriorate as Brussels rolls out tariffs on electric vehicles and considers additional steps—and Beijing prepares retaliatory measures. Beyond these immediate challenges, Brussels faces the difficult task of doing more for its security by enacting more robust defense policies. Enlargement will be another important issue. Finding ways to shoulder the financial burden of welcoming new countries and tackling potential trade distortions that would affect some member states more than others will be among the priorities.
Edited by Jonathan House, senior editor at Eurasia Group.
Exclusive: How to govern the unknown – a Q&A with MEP Eva Maydell
The European Parliament passed the Artificial Intelligence Act on March 13, becoming the world’s first major government to pass comprehensive regulations for the emerging technology. This capped a five-year effort to manage AI and its potential to disrupt every industry and cause geopolitical tensions.
The AI Act, which takes effect later this year, places basic transparency requirements on generative AI models such as OpenAI’s GPT-4, mandating that their makers share some information about how they are trained. There are more stringent rules for more powerful models or ones that will be used in sensitive sectors, such as law enforcement or critical infrastructure. Like with the EU’s data privacy law, there are steep penalties for companies that violate the new AI legislation – up to 7% of their annual global revenue.
GZERO spoke with Eva Maydell, a Bulgarian member of the European Parliament on the Committee on Industry, Research, and Energy, who negotiated the details of the AI Act. We asked her about the imprint Europe is leaving on global AI regulation.
GZERO: What drove you to spearhead work on AI in the European Parliament?
MEP Eva Maydell: It’s vital that we not only tackle the challenges and opportunities of today but those of tomorrow. That way, we can ensure that Europe is its most resilient and prepared. One of the most interesting and challenging aspects of being a politician that works on tech policy is trying to reach the right balance between enabling innovation and competitiveness with ensuring we have the right protections and safeguards in place. Artificial intelligence has the potential to change the world we live in, and having the opportunity to work on such an impactful piece of law was a privilege and a responsibility.
How do you think the AI Act balances regulation with innovation? Can Europe become a standard-setter for the AI industry while also encouraging development and progress within its borders?
Maydell: I fought very hard to ensure that innovation remained a strong feature of the AI Act. However, the proof of the pudding is in the eating. We must acknowledge that Europe has some catching up to do. AI take-up by European companies is 11%. Europeans rely on foreign countries for 80% of digital products and services. We also have to tackle inflation and stagnating growth. AI has the potential to be the engine for innovation, creativity, and prosperity, but only if we ensure that we keep working on all the other important pieces of the puzzle, such as a strong single market and greater access to capital.
The pace of AI is evolving rapidly. Does the AI Act set Europe up to be responsive to unforeseen advancements in technology?
Maydell: One of the most difficult aspects of regulating technology is trying to regulate the unknown. However, this is why it’s essential to stick to principles rather than over-prescription wherever possible - for example, a risk-based approach, and where possible aligning with international standards. This allows you the ability to adapt. It is also why the success of the AI Office and AI Forum will be so important. The guidance that we offer businesses and organizations in the coming months on how to implement the AI Act, will be key to its long-term success. Beyond the pages of the AI Act, we need to think about technological foresight. This is why I launched an initiative at the 60th annual Munich Security Conference – the “Council on the Future.” It aims to bridge the foresight and collaboration gap between the public and private sector with a view toward enabling the thoughtful stewardship of technology.
Europe is the first mover on AI regulation. How would you like to see the rest of the world follow suit and pass their own laws? How can Europe be an example to other countries?
Maydell: I hope we’re an example to others in the sense that we have tried to take a responsible approach to the development of AI. We are already seeing nations around the world take important steps towards shaping their own governance structures for AI. We have the Executive Order in the US and the UK had the AI Safety Summit. It is vital that like-minded nations are working together to ensure that there is broader coherence around the values associated with the development and use of our technologies. Deeper collaboration through the G7, the UN, and the OECD is something we must continue to pursue.
Is there anything the AI Act doesn't do that you'd like to turn your attention to next?
Maydell: The AI Act is not a silver bullet, but it is an important piece of a much bigger puzzle. We have adopted an unprecedented amount of digital legislation in the last five years. With these strong regulatory foundations in place, my hope is that we now focus on perhaps the less newsworthy but equally important issue of good implementation. This means cutting red tape, reducing existing excess bureaucracy, and removing any frictions or barriers between different EU laws in the digital space. The more clarity and certainty we can offer companies, the more likely it is that Europe will attract inward investment and be the birthplace of some of the biggest names in global tech.
AI vs. truth: Battling deepfakes amid 2024 elections
With nearly half of the globe heading to the polls this year amid lightning-speed developments in generative AI, fears are running rampant over tech-driven disinformation campaigns.
During a Global Stage panel at the Munich Security Conference, Bulgarian politician and European Parliament member Eva Maydell said she fears we will soon be unable to separate fact from deepfake fiction.
While acknowledging the important developments AI and emerging tech offer, Maydell warned that we also “need to be very sober” about how they are threatening the “very fabric of our democratic societies” and eroding trust.
While the EU is trying to push voluntary measures and legislative proposals, Maydell points out that political conversations often revolve around the sense that “we'll probably never be as good as those that are trying to deceive society.”
“But you still have to give it a try, and you need to do it in a very prepared way,” she adds.
Watch the full conversation: How to protect elections in the age of AI
Watch more Global Stage coverage on the 2024 Munich Security Conference.
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