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Ukraine's NATO & EU ambitions
Carl Bildt, former prime minister of Sweden, shares his perspective on European politics.
First question, is Ukraine going to be a member of NATO?
Well, eventually it will. There's no question about it. There was no even formal limitation issued in the news for fairly obvious reasons. The country is in war at the moment. But at the same time, no question, there were substantial commitments by NATO, even more substantial commitment by the different G-7 nations to build up the armed forces of Ukraine long term, integrate them into NATO. And no question that Washington Summit next year is going to be a lot of discussions on when NATO formally has go to admit Ukraine as a member.
Second question, will Ukraine be a member of the European Union?
Well, same answer. It will be at some point in time, but that's going to be somewhat more drawn out process necessarily. I would hope that by the autumn of this year, that we will have first opinion by the European Commission to say yes and a decision by the heads of government, heads of state and government of the European Union in December to start accession negotiations.
Swedish NATO bid caught in Erdoğan reelection effort
Carl Bildt, former prime minister of Sweden, shares his perspective from Stockholm, Sweden.
How is the process of accession of Finland and Sweden to NATO going?
Well, it's green light for Finland. After ratification by Hungary and Turkey, they've been playing some games, but now green light. Good, excellent. Sweden, they are still holding out. I think President Erdoğan sees this as an asset in his election campaign. There have been some issues with Sweden. I think they have been sorted out, but now it's a question of the politics of Turkey. President Erdoğan, of course, faces an extremely critical election May 14, first round his entire regime's up for grab, and he's holding Sweden hostage in a way that is not entirely good for the security of Europe.
What’s happening in the Mediterranean with refugees?
Well, that's a worrying situation. There have been three times as many refugees, migrants arriving across the Mediterranean to Italy the first few months of this year as last year. There's talk of 900,000 coming this year on planes and trains. There's a very disturbing and difficult situation in Tunisia, both in economic and political terms. Many are coming from Tunisia, but many are coming through Tunisia as well. Clearly it's an unsustainable situation. Can things be done in order to get things better on shape in Turkey? Can there be more solidarity in the European Union helping Italy? These are important question that needs answers.
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Europe’s tough decisions: Russia, China, and EU unity
Winter is coming and for Europe, a bleak winter it may be.
The escalating Russia/Ukraine war has united European support to Kyiv’s cause, but it’s also brought a plethora of economic, political, and social challenges. Inflation, a sinking Euro, and the possibility of an energy crisis brings to question just how long Europe’s support for Ukraine will last?
On GZERO World, Ian Bremmer speaks with German diplomat Christoph Heusgen, who served as his country’s ambassador to the United Nations and is now chairman of the Munich Security Conference.
His take on the war in Ukraine? Vladimir Putin grossly miscalculated Ukrainian resolve and the war is going badly for the Russians.
Even so, Putin is determined to see the war through, committing crimes against humanity along the way. On Germany’s relationship with China, Heusgen questions Olaf Scholz’s meeting with Xi Jinping, voicing concerns about the danger of entering a relationship with a country known to use economic leverage for political gain.
This interview was featured in a GZERO World episode: Europe’s tough decisions: Russia, China, and EU unity
Belarus foreign minister's "sudden" death drives speculation
Carl Bildt, former prime minister of Sweden, shares his perspective on European politics.
What's really happening in Belarus?
Well, a mysterious thing happened. I mean, the foreign minister, Mr. Makei, who's been healthy and no problem whatsoever, died very, very suddenly the other day. He's been a loyal lieutenant of Lukashenko, no question about that. Also, during the sort of, the crackdown time over the last few years, but he has been under the cover, he has sort of been maneuvering. And he's been, in private conversation with me and others, very, very explicit on Moscow's imperial designs. So, there's a lot of speculation what really happened. And according to rumors, these are rumors, Mr. Lukashenko has changed all of his kitchen staff lately.
What's going to happen during the Macron visit to the White House?
Well, a lot of pomp and circumstances as is normally the case with a state visit. But there is severe tension that is caused by the different approaches that have been taken by the Biden administration, slightly protectionist approaches when it comes to subsidies of different sorts, which is hurting European business, and which is causing a fairly fierce debate in Europe how to react. Whether there can be a rapprochement or not on this remains to be seen. On Ukraine, they will certainly see eye to eye.
What a mysterious pipeline attack says about European unity
When segments of the Nord Stream gas pipeline linking Russia to Europe mysteriously exploded last September, all eyes were on Moscow, Ian Bremmer tells GZERO World.
But proving a wide held suspicion that Russia was responsible has been a much harder task for European nations.
That's in part due to a long European history of reluctance to share intelligence among member nations.
For a continent that has coalesced around supporting Ukraine during its war, the reluctance to work together on investigating the Nord Stream explosion is raising more than a few eyebrows.
Watch the GZERO World episode: Europe’s tough decisions: Russia, China, and EU unity
Finland “investing in security and stability” with NATO push
Kai Sauer, Finland’s Undersecretary of State for Foreign Security Policy, told GZERO Media that as Finland awaits NATO membership his nation is already contributing to the alliance.
“We are a security provider. We are investing in stability and security in our region,” Sauer said. “We are bringing a lot of capabilities to the alliance. So, it's in everybody's interest, also in Turkey's interest, that Finland and Sweden will become members.”
Sauer spoke to GZERO Media on the sidelines of the 77th UN General Assembly, where conversations about the war in Ukraine and the global crises it has sparked were front and center.
On setbacks to the UN’s Sustainable Development Goals, 17 goals the organization hopes to attain by 2030 as a blueprint for greater peace and equality, Sauer said he remains cautiously optimistic.
“We are still working towards 2030, and hopefully we can gain as much progress as we can, Sauer said. “But the fact that we have been thrown into a crisis in Europe, it's not helping in achieving those goals.”
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How new UK PM Liz Truss will impact UK/EU relations
Carl Bildt, former prime minister of Sweden, shares his perspective on European politics from Riga, Latvia.
What's the European attitude to Liz Truss as the new prime minister of the United Kingdom?
Well, welcome to her. It has to be said that I think the jury's still out. There are sort of some apprehensions because she's dug herself down into some pretty unconstructive positions concerning the UK relationship with the EU. I hope she can get out of that because we do need a better relationship between the EU and the UK.
How is Europe looking forward to the winter now when Russia is unreliable when it comes to gas supplies?
But it doesn't really come as a surprise that Putin now definitely cutting all or virtually all gas deliveries to Europe. It's going to be slightly tricky, manageable, I would say. But it's going to speed up the process of making Europe completely independent, of the EU, completely independent upon the gas and oil from Russia.
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Under-the-radar European elections
Over the past year, the biggest story in European politics has been its remarkable unity in response to crises. The EU plan for COVID recovery and the response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine have been much more cooperative and effective than the sometimes-ugly debates over managing the sovereign debt crisis of 2009-2010 or the migrant crisis of 2015-2016.
But political pressure is building on the continent. Inflationary pressures, exacerbated by continuing supply-chain disruptions, higher food and fuel costs provoked by the war, and ambitious plans to redraw Europe’s energy map and spend more on defense are stoking public fear that it’s all too much at once. How these concerns play out domestically in a few key countries could impact European unity and progress moving forward.
This weekend, voters go to the polls in France and Italy, and the messages they send will only become more urgent in the coming months.
Can Macron win a majority in France’s National Assembly?
On Sunday, French voters will cast ballots in the first round of parliamentary elections, and the big question is whether President Emmanuel Macron’s Ensemble! Party can win the majority it needs to advance an ambitious reform agenda. “The Macron camp has woken up to the fact that parliamentary election polls have tightened in recent days,” warns Eurasia Group Europe expert Mujtaba Rahman. Lose their majority, and Macron’s party, and a government led by Prime Minister Élisabeth Borne, will face the tough task of forming ad-hoc parliamentary alliances to win votes on individual proposals.
In recent days, a resurgent left-wing coalition led by firebrand candidate Jean-Luc Mélenchon has climbed the polls, a reflection of voter anxiety not over Russia’s invasion or France’s place in the world but over pocketbook issues that have become more urgent. “The most pressing concern of voters is the cost of living, and some Macron supporters fear that high pump prices for petrol and diesel may be a ‘seat killer’ for Macron’s party,” says Rahman.
How popular is Italy’s far-right?
On Sunday, about 9 million Italians from some 1,000 cities and towns across the country will vote in local elections. That’s only about 15% of Italy’s population, but these votes will be an important testing ground for parties looking ahead to a historic and hotly contested national election next spring.
To this point, Prime Minister Mario Draghi’s national unity government has mainly kept its coalition together. That’s particularly true for Italy’s active support for Ukraine and condemnation of Russia, now a source of rising tensions nationwide. Brothers of Italy, the ascendant party of the far-right that has remained outside Draghi’s unity government, is steadily gaining support and now leads national polls. A victory early next year for the EU-hostile Brothers would send shock waves across European politics.
Sunday’s vote won’t knock Draghi’s governing coalition off track, and it won’t force early elections. But results will be closely watched to see how Brothers of Italy fares relative to other popular anti-establishment parties, such as the far-right Lega Party and the center-left Five-Star Movement. A good day for the Brothers will set expectations for the crucial national vote next year.
Bottom line: Both the French and Italian elections will offer important first clues about the kind of pressures European incumbents are about to face.