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Graphic Truth: 2024 Euro Cup of Approval
The Euro Cup kicked off on June 14 and is now down to the final eight, with the beautiful game having seen its fair share of victories and upsets in recent weeks. At the same time, battles have been waged on the political stage, with the far right surging first in European Parliament elections and then in the first round in France this past weekend.
All this talk of soccer and politics made us wonder … how well would these countries compete if the matches were decided based on national leader approval ratings?
Soccer powerhouses England and France are favored to dominate the Euros. But their leaders, Prime Minister Rishi Sunak and President Emmanuel Macron, both of whom suffer from low approval ratings (and are watching their electorates head to the polls this weekend), wouldn’t generate the same optimism on the pitch.
What happens when we swap national sides for leaders – is your favorite team still in with a chance?
Here’s why I can’t watch soccer like a normal person
Politics and history have a way of intruding on – even ruining – everything for me, and these days, it’s soccer’s turn.
Right now, most of the Western Hemisphere is engrossed in two major soccer tournaments. In Europe, it’s the Euros, where the Old Countries are battling it out. In the Americas, it’s the Copa América, where the New Ones are.
All told, the countries participating in the two tournaments are home to more than a billion people. So, it’s a big deal – basically two half-filled World Cups at once.
The on-field dramas are rich enough. Will this be the last time an aging Lionel Messi, perhaps the greatest player ever, puts on his country’s uniform? Is this unexpectedly strong Venezuela team for real? Across the ocean, how stacked is host country Germany still? Can England manage to not disappoint?
That’s all good, but when I watch the matches, look at the flags, and read the names on the jerseys, I can’t help but see or think about different things entirely – political things.
So when, for example, French striker Kylian Mbappé, whose parents are from Cameroon and Algeria, puts one in the back of the net, I don’t just wonder whether he really is the best player in the world now (is he?). I also immediately think of the backlash against immigration in France, which – as elsewhere in the EU – has boosted the far right. On Sunday in France, in fact, the overtly anti-immigrant party of Marine Le Pen topped the polls in the first round of the country's snap elections. This despite Mbappé's own direct appeals to young French votersnot to let Le Pen's party win.
On that score, when Austria plays Turkey in a few days, help me NOT flip back to the 1683 Siege of Vienna , when the Habsburgs stopped the Ottomans’ last, best attempt to push into the heart of Europe. Far-right politicians in Europe today, of course, have embraced the symbolism of that exact battle as part of their calls to limit immigration from the Islamic world. Keep an eye on ultra-nationalist Euro Twitter on Tuesday when the match is on.
Back on this side of the Atlantic, the Mexico vs. Ecuador game on Sunday was the most exciting faceoff between the two countries since April, when Ecuadorian police raided the Mexican Embassy in Quito, in order to arrest a former Ecuadorian vice president who had taken asylum there while fleeing a corruption conviction.
But I couldn't help thinking of the bigger Ecuador story: the country is in a state of emergency as murders skyrocket amid a war between Mexican (and Colombian) cartels trying to claim turf in the small Andean country. That violence has driven Ecuadoran asylum seekers as far away as New York City, where a growing migrant crisis is defining the city's politics. (See our special on that here.)
Speaking of migrant crises: Venezuela, -- where political repression, economic mismanagement, and the effects of US sanctions have caused more than 7 million people to flee over the past several years -- is somehow fielding one of the strongest teams at the Copa. Could success at the tournament give a boost to strongman Nicolas Maduro? He could use the help. He is so unpopular that he might actually lose a July 28th election that he has spent years carefully designing in his favor.
You get the point.
I understand this is a little nuts. A sports match is just a sports match. But for any politically minded person, it’s never just a sports matchup when it’s national teams.
Like it or not, the politics of how nation-states define themselves — that is, who gets to be in them, who gets what from them, where their borders really are — is at the heart of so many of the most electric political questions in the world today.
The immigration debates in Europe or the US are about who gets to come in. The socioeconomic, political, and racial fault lines and conflicts within countries of Latin America are, in many cases, what is driving people out.
In just about every country represented at the Copa and the Euros, these questions are shaping -- or reshaping -- politics. I can't help if if I'm seeing that in every match. All I'm doing is watching some soccer, right?
Macron's call for a snap election in France is a huge gamble
What happened in the European Parliament elections? Why is President Macron calling for a snap election in France? Carl Bildt, former prime minister of Sweden and co-chair of the European Council on Foreign Relations, shares his perspective on European politics from Berlin, Germany.
What happened in the European Parliament elections?
Well, there was a shift, no question, but not the fundamental shift to the far-right that quite a number of pundits have been speculating about. If you look at what's been the sort o, the governing coalition, if you might use that phrase, of the center-right DPP, the Social Democrats, and the liberals Renew, they used to have roughly 59% of the seats in the European Parliament. They now have 56% of the seats in the European Parliament. It is a shift, no question about that, but hardly a fundamental one. And I don't think you will see much of a shift in policies resulting out of that.
Why is President Macron calling for a snap election in France?
Well, of course, even if there wasn't the major shift in European Parliament, there was a significant shift in individual countries. And, most dramatically, it was in France where President Macron suffered a very significant setback with the far-right, combined, getting roughly 40% of the electorate. Well, he decided this can't go on. So, he dissolved the National Assembly, called for new elections, got to be, sort of, in the early July, the decisive round. It’s a huge gamble. He might not have had much of a choice, but it’s a gamble anyhow. Will we end up with some sort of cohabitation between President Macron and elements of the nationalist right to France? Remains to be seen, but highly likely. Or will he succeed to mobilize those that are against this development in the country? That also remains to be seen. But that, of course, is going to have a fairly fundamental impact on what happened, not only in France but in the rest of Europe as well.
- Left in the dust: European voters swing right ›
- How the EU Parliament elections work ›
- Biden and Macron give Ukraine roadmap ›
- Macron rolls the dice on France’s future ›
- Hunter Biden's convictions won't derail his father's re-election bid - GZERO Media ›
- Kylian Mbappé attacks France’s far right before Euros kickoff - GZERO Media ›
- Macron's snap election gamble will have repercussions for France and EU - GZERO Media ›
European Elections: What to expect
Carl Bildt, former prime minister of Sweden and co-chair of the European Council on Foreign Relations, shares his perspective on European politics from Stockholm, Sweden.
What are the prospects for the European elections later this week?
Yep, it's going to be a big week for big elections. First, on Tuesday coming out the result from the world’s , by far, biggest democratic election, the Indian one. And then from Thursday onwards until Sunday, we have elections in the 27 countries of the European Union, 370 million people have the possibility to vote for the members of the European Parliament, 720 of those. Result remains to be seen. It's unlikely to be any revolutionary change, but we will see the Greens losing in some countries, the extreme right doing gains in Italy and France. But I think the major parties, the center-right European People's Party, the Social Democrats and the Liberals could probably retain the overall majority. But that remains to be seen. In addition, national elections in Belgium and Bulgaria. It's a big week for big elections ahead.
Ukraine's NATO & EU ambitions
Carl Bildt, former prime minister of Sweden, shares his perspective on European politics.
First question, is Ukraine going to be a member of NATO?
Well, eventually it will. There's no question about it. There was no even formal limitation issued in the news for fairly obvious reasons. The country is in war at the moment. But at the same time, no question, there were substantial commitments by NATO, even more substantial commitment by the different G-7 nations to build up the armed forces of Ukraine long term, integrate them into NATO. And no question that Washington Summit next year is going to be a lot of discussions on when NATO formally has go to admit Ukraine as a member.
Second question, will Ukraine be a member of the European Union?
Well, same answer. It will be at some point in time, but that's going to be somewhat more drawn out process necessarily. I would hope that by the autumn of this year, that we will have first opinion by the European Commission to say yes and a decision by the heads of government, heads of state and government of the European Union in December to start accession negotiations.
Swedish NATO bid caught in Erdoğan reelection effort
Carl Bildt, former prime minister of Sweden, shares his perspective from Stockholm, Sweden.
How is the process of accession of Finland and Sweden to NATO going?
Well, it's green light for Finland. After ratification by Hungary and Turkey, they've been playing some games, but now green light. Good, excellent. Sweden, they are still holding out. I think President Erdoğan sees this as an asset in his election campaign. There have been some issues with Sweden. I think they have been sorted out, but now it's a question of the politics of Turkey. President Erdoğan, of course, faces an extremely critical election May 14, first round his entire regime's up for grab, and he's holding Sweden hostage in a way that is not entirely good for the security of Europe.
What’s happening in the Mediterranean with refugees?
Well, that's a worrying situation. There have been three times as many refugees, migrants arriving across the Mediterranean to Italy the first few months of this year as last year. There's talk of 900,000 coming this year on planes and trains. There's a very disturbing and difficult situation in Tunisia, both in economic and political terms. Many are coming from Tunisia, but many are coming through Tunisia as well. Clearly it's an unsustainable situation. Can things be done in order to get things better on shape in Turkey? Can there be more solidarity in the European Union helping Italy? These are important question that needs answers.
- Finland’s next step ›
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- Europe plays the blame game over asylum-seekers ›
- What obligations do rich nations have when it comes to refugees? ›
Europe’s tough decisions: Russia, China, and EU unity
Winter is coming and for Europe, a bleak winter it may be.
The escalating Russia/Ukraine war has united European support to Kyiv’s cause, but it’s also brought a plethora of economic, political, and social challenges. Inflation, a sinking Euro, and the possibility of an energy crisis brings to question just how long Europe’s support for Ukraine will last?
On GZERO World, Ian Bremmer speaks with German diplomat Christoph Heusgen, who served as his country’s ambassador to the United Nations and is now chairman of the Munich Security Conference.
His take on the war in Ukraine? Vladimir Putin grossly miscalculated Ukrainian resolve and the war is going badly for the Russians.
Even so, Putin is determined to see the war through, committing crimes against humanity along the way. On Germany’s relationship with China, Heusgen questions Olaf Scholz’s meeting with Xi Jinping, voicing concerns about the danger of entering a relationship with a country known to use economic leverage for political gain.
This interview was featured in a GZERO World episode: Europe’s tough decisions: Russia, China, and EU unity
Belarus foreign minister's "sudden" death drives speculation
Carl Bildt, former prime minister of Sweden, shares his perspective on European politics.
What's really happening in Belarus?
Well, a mysterious thing happened. I mean, the foreign minister, Mr. Makei, who's been healthy and no problem whatsoever, died very, very suddenly the other day. He's been a loyal lieutenant of Lukashenko, no question about that. Also, during the sort of, the crackdown time over the last few years, but he has been under the cover, he has sort of been maneuvering. And he's been, in private conversation with me and others, very, very explicit on Moscow's imperial designs. So, there's a lot of speculation what really happened. And according to rumors, these are rumors, Mr. Lukashenko has changed all of his kitchen staff lately.
What's going to happen during the Macron visit to the White House?
Well, a lot of pomp and circumstances as is normally the case with a state visit. But there is severe tension that is caused by the different approaches that have been taken by the Biden administration, slightly protectionist approaches when it comes to subsidies of different sorts, which is hurting European business, and which is causing a fairly fierce debate in Europe how to react. Whether there can be a rapprochement or not on this remains to be seen. On Ukraine, they will certainly see eye to eye.