We have updated our Privacy Policy and Terms of Use for Eurasia Group and its affiliates, including GZERO Media, to clarify the types of data we collect, how we collect it, how we use data and with whom we share data. By using our website you consent to our Terms and Conditions and Privacy Policy, including the transfer of your personal data to the United States from your country of residence, and our use of cookies described in our Cookie Policy.
{{ subpage.title }}
French far-right Rassemblement National (RN) party leader Marine Le Pen and party President Jordan Bardella address militants listens after French President announced he is calling for new general elections on June 30, during an evening gathering on the final day of the European Parliament election, at the Pavillon Chesnaie du Roy in Paris, on June 9, 2024.
Left in the dust: European voters swing right
Europe took a hard right turn in European Parliament elections this weekend, dealing a substantial blow to key EU leaders German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and French President Emmanuel Macron, prompting the latter to call early elections.
In France, Marine Le Pen’s far-right National Rally party surged to 31.5% support – more than twice as much as Macron’s Renaissance coalition, with 14.5%. Close behind are the Socialists and their lead candidate Raphaël Glucksmann with 14%.
A sober-looking Macron took to French television to dissolve parliament and called for elections on June 30, with a second round on July 7. The outcome of the EU elections, he said, was “not a good result for parties who defend Europe.” This is a gamble for Macron: A similar far-right wave in the French parliamentary election could see his party lose its majority.
In Germany, projections show the far-right Alternative for Germany set to secure second place with 16.5% of the vote, a record high. Support for Scholz’s Social Democratic Party and coalition partner Free Democratic Party declined, securing 14% and 5% of the vote, respectively. And Germany’s Greens took the biggest hit, dropping a whopping 8.5 percentage points to 12%, as cash-strapped voters spurned costly environmental policies.
Coalition time: Post-election, European political parties realign in blocs in the EU Parliament. The largest, the center-right European People’s Party, has recently shifted right on issues of security, climate, and migration, and could swing further to the right if joined by Giorgia Meloni’s far-right Brothers of Italy. Another scenario would see Meloni’s group and other far-right parties such as Viktor Orban’s Fidesz party stay with the more hard-line European Conservatives and Reformists group, or become part of a new hard-right group that could form the wake of the elections. We’ll be watching the horse trading as coalitions take shape.FILE PHOTO: A placard reads, "deport AFD now", during nationwide protests against racism and plans of Germany's far-right Alternative for Germany (AFD) party to deport foreigners, in Bonn, Germany, January 21, 2024.
Can Germany defund its own far-right?
Germany’s Federal Constitutional Court ruled Tuesday that the small far-right Die Heimat party may not receive funding from the federal government because of its anti-democratic and ethno-nationalist goals. Die Heimat isn’t a big player in German politics, but the Alternative für Deutschland is. And as AfD is drawing the support of about 23% of Germans, according to recent polls, centrist parties are eyeing the same pathway to box them out financially.
The AfD has long taken anti-immigration stances, but some senior members may have put the party at risk by meeting with neo-Nazis last year to discuss plans for an extreme program to deport immigrants by the millions, including naturalized citizens. Hundreds of thousands of Germans took to the streets to protest, but calls to ban the party outright are likely to fail due to the high standards German courts impose on such a drastic move. Instead, the recent finding against Die Heimat is fueling calls for a similar motion against AfD, which stands to lose over $10 million in annual public funding.
It’s not all about morality, though. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s government faces a bruising negotiation over the 2025 budget, with a sluggish economy necessitating major cuts. The AfD could use the cuts as a populist cudgel to hammer the incumbent coalition in elections in the states of Saxony, Thuringia, and Brandenburg scheduled for September. Scholz’s government is struggling in the three eastern states — but if AfD finds itself light on funds, he might avoid the worst outcomes.Federal Chancellor Olaf Scholz on stage at the Digital Summit 2023 in November.
Wie sagt man: Not cheap as chips?
It committed $10 billion for Intel, which is building factories in Magdeburg; $5 billion in subsidies for a new fabrication plant built by Taiwanese giant TSMC along with Dutch company NXP, and German firms Bosch and Infineon. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz even noted in July how impressive it was that “so many German and international companies are choosing Germany for the expansion of their semiconductor production.”
But last month, a German court ruled that Scholz’s government violated its constitutional powers when he moved $65 billion in unused funds earmarked for the COVID-19 pandemic to the “climate and transformation” fund. The bad news for chipmakers? That was the money earmarked for their subsidies.
Germany wants to position itself as particularly friendly to industry, not only courting multinational tech corporations willing to build manufacturing plants, but also — in a recent shock move — by throwing a wrench in EU plans to heavily regulate large language models like OpenAI’s GPT-4.
Trouble is, to run the high-powered AI models, developers need high-powered chips – whatever the cost.