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From left to right, Prime Minister of Bavaria Markus Soeder, Chairman of the CDU Friedrich Merz, Heads of the SPD Lars Klingbeil, and Saskia Esken arrive at a press conference after successful coalition negotiations in Berlin, Germany, on April 9, 2025.

Emmanuele Contini/NurPhoto via Reuters

Germany’s Friedrich Merz strikes grand coalition deal

Germany’s leading establishment parties reached a grand coalition deal on Wednesday, bringing Europe’s largest economy a step closer to having a formal government amid severe domestic and global challenges.

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African National Congress (ANC) members of parliament react after South African lawmakers passed the budget's fiscal framework in Cape Town, South Africa, April 2, 2025.

REUTERS/Esa Alexander

Budget clash puts South African government on brink of collapse

The second largest party in South Africa’s coalition, the business-friendly Democratic Alliance, launched a legal challenge on Thursday to block a 0.5% VAT increase in the country’s new budget, raising concerns that the fragile government could collapse.

The background: Absent the support of their coalition partner, the ruling African National Congress on Wednesday relied instead on support from smaller parties to narrowly pass a budget framework.

The ANC and the center-right DA, historical rivals, agreed to work together after last year’s elections, when the ANC failed to win a majority for the first time since it entered government in 1994, after the fall of apartheid.

Your call, DA. The lawsuit is unlikely to derail the budget, so the party must decide if it wants to stay in government despite its misgivings. Without the DA, the ANC would hold exactly half of the legislature’s 400 seats. Investors view the DA as a key source of market-friendly policy discipline.

It’s a dilemma. Experts say that if the DA bolts, it will lose the chance to shape key legislation, such as the controversial Expropriation Act, a land reform bill, but staying would mean facing political humiliation after they voted against the budget.

Following the end of the "traffic light" coalition, Federal Chancellor Olaf Scholz has submitted a request to the president of the Bundestag for a vote of confidence in the Bundestag.

Michael Kappeler/dpa via Reuters Connect

Viewpoint: Germany seeks new political leadership to address economic crisis

Faced with a political impasse preventing action on acute economic and geopolitical challenges, the German parliament will hold a vote of confidence in Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s government on Dec. 16. Based on an agreement among the main parties in the Bundestag, lawmakers will deliver a vote of “no confidence,” paving the way for snap elections on Feb. 23.

We asked Eurasia Group expert Jan Techau to explain what set off this chain of events and where it is likely to lead.

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German Finance Minister Christian Lindner, Economic Affairs and Climate Action Minister Robert Habeck, and Chancellor Olaf Scholz attend the 2024 budget debate session of the German lower house of parliament, the Bundestag, in Berlin, Germany, earlier this year.

REUTERS/Fabrizio Bensch/File Photo

Will Germany’s ruling coalition survive the winter?

Germany’s coalition government is seemingly on the rocks as Berlin contends with a stagnant economy and the three ruling parties — the Social Democrats, the Free Democrats, and the Greens — offer competing visions for a way forward.
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Johannesburg, South Africa - People are pictured voting at a polling station in Soweto in Johannesburg, South Africa, on May 29, 2024.

Handout / Latin America News Agency

South Africa’s ruling party faces coalition conundrum

South Africa’s ruling African National Congress, led by President Cyril Ramaphosa, scored its worst election result in 30 years last week, forcing the party into tricky coalition talks. The ANC took just 40% of the vote, down from 58% in 2019 and below the party’s worst-case projections, as support waned due to high corruption, unemployment, and crime. Nelson Mandela’s former party now faces a choice between potential partners for building a coalition, all with a heavy price.

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15th January 2024 Geert Wilders arrives at palace on the Dam for the Dutch Kings annual New Years Reception.

IMAGO/Richard Wareham via Reuters Connect

Wilders in the wilderness: Far-right Dutchman drops PM bid

Dutch far-right politician Geert Wilders will not become prime minister of his country, despite getting the most votes in last year’s election.

Although Wilders’ PVV party swept to victory on a scorching anti-Islam and anti-migrant “Dutch First” message, he still needed coalition partners to form a government. Months of talks with a handful of center-right parties ended this week without support for Wilders as PM.

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