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Russian President Vladimir Putin welcomes US envoy Steve Witkoff during a meeting in Moscow, Russia, on April 25, 2025.
What We’re Watching: Another glitch in Russia-Ukraine talks, UK Labour Party to raise taxes to record levels, Tensions spike in Syria’s third-largest city
Witkoff leak is only the latest glitch in Russia-Ukraine negotiations
A leaked recording of an October call between US special envoy Steve Witkoff and a senior Kremlin official is the latest drama to spill into the Ukraine peace talks. In the call, scooped by Bloomberg, Witkoff – already mistrusted by the Ukrainians – gives tips on how Russian President Vladimir Putin can soften up US President Donald Trump in negotiations. This follows the mini-drama in which US Secretary of State Marco Rubio was forced to affirm this week that the White House had “authored” an initial 28-point plan, after he reportedly told US senators that it hadn’t. Meanwhile Russia is still warning that it won’t accept a deal that strays from its red lines, while accusing Europe of “meddling” in the talks. With so much drama and division, we are keenly tuned in to see what plan, if any, emerges in the coming days.
Will the UK’s new budget right the ship?
The UK government will impose record tax hikes in order to balance the state’s finances while supporting more social spending, according to Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves’ new budget. The tax burden will reach 38% of GDP by 2030, the highest in UK history, with the help of a de-facto income tax rise and a new tax on homes worth above £2 million. Labour supporters will cheer the increased social spending but the higher overall tax burden, even on less affluent families, could sting at the polls. Markets swung forward and back in response to the announcement, suggesting they weren’t fully convinced by Labour’s efforts to balance its books. We’re watching to see how this bold fiscal move will affect Prime Minister Keir Starmer and his flailing government.
Syria’s sectarian tensions flare again after brutal double killing
The gruesome murder of a Sunni bedouin couple in the Syrian city of Homs has stoked sectarian tensions in one of the country’s largest cities. The husband and wife were found dead in their home, with sectarian epithets scrawled at the scene. The killings set off a brief wave of reprisals against local Alawites, the sect to which the now-ousted Assad dynasty belonged. Since overthrowing the Assad regime a year ago, President Ahmed al-Sharaa, a former jihadist who has remade himself as a statesman, has struggled to contain sectarian violence, some of it stoked by his own men. The situation in Homs, a strategically located city that is home to Sunnis, Shia, Christians, and Alawites, is an important test case.
Canada's Prime Minister Mark Carney and Minister of Finance Francois-Philippe Champagne applaud after a confidence vote on the federal budget passes in the House of Commons on Parliament Hill in Ottawa, Ontario, Canada November 17, 2025.
Canada’s government survives budget vote
Canada’s six-month old minority government survived a de facto confidence vote on its first budget yesterday, avoiding the possibility of a Christmas election. Carney now has a mandate to run the second-highest deficit in Canadian history, at CA$78.3 billion, in order to implement wide-ranging industrial policy that includes infrastructure, resource development, and defense. It’s a blow for the opposition parties, most notably the Conservatives, whose leader Pierre Poilievre is facing a leadership review vote by his party at its annual convention in January.
What will the budget mean for Canada? Over the next five years, the government will invest CA$115 billion in infrastructure spending, including electricity-grid upgrades and high-speed rail, as well as in major projects, including port infrastructure, LNG plants, and to support critical minerals development projects that could challenge China’s dominance in the sector. It will spend CA$25 billion on housing, a major election issue, as well as an extra CA$81.8 billion on defense. A “Buy Canadian” procurement regime will steer federal contracts toward domestic suppliers for all these engagements.
But the plan comes with an average CA$64.3 billion annual deficit for the next four years, double what had been projected by the previous government. According to the Fitch ratings agency, Canada’s general government-debt-to-GDP ratio will rise to 91.8% in 2026 and 98.5% in 2027, compared with 88.6% in 2024 and nearly double its AA rating median of 49.6%. To counter the fiscal pressure, the budget promises to cut 10% of public service jobs to balance the government’s operating expenditures, but capital spending will still have Ottawa in the red.
Those factors made the budget unpalatable to both the right-wing Conservatives and the left-wing New Democrats while two other smaller parties, the Bloc Quebecois and the Greens, refused to support it due to its failure to increase Old Age security payments and its removal of the federal emissions cap on Canada’s oil and gas industry.
So then how did the budget pass? Carney’s government was three seats shy of a majority when the bill was introduced on Nov. 4. That same day, however, a Conservative MP, Chris d’Entremont, crossed the floor to the Liberals, and a day later, another Conservative, Matt Jeneroux, announced he would resign his seat in the spring, ostensibly for family reasons, amid rumours that he was also considering joining the government.
That left Carney still in need of two crucial votes, or a combination of votes and abstentions. He got the support of Elisabeth May, leader of the Green Party, in exchange for a promise to meet Canada’s climate targets in the Paris Agreement to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 40-45% below 2005 levels by 2030, though it is not clear how that will be achieved with the new energy investments in the budget. Four opposition MPs then abstained, two each from the Conservatives (Jeneroux, and another with serious health issues) and the New Democrats (one whose local mayors and Indigenous leaders did not want an election, and another who saw benefits in the budget for her riding). This allowed the budget to pass by a vote of 170 to 168.
Where does this leave the opposition? The drama has weakened Conservative leader Poilievre. Many MPs were already unhappy with the party’s election defeat in April, blaming Poilievre for failing to pivot to the issue of opposing US President Donald Trump. The Conservative leader also lost his own seat and had to win a seat in a by-election in order to return to Parliament in September.
But the biggest problem in the Conservative Party is governance. In the wake of the budget floor crossing, Poilievre and his advisors reportedly threatened MPs to prevent further defections, leading one to liken their style to that of “the Sopranos”. This could spell trouble for Poilievre at an upcoming Conservative leadership review in January, required when the party loses an election: a score under 80% could severely undermine his ability to remain leader.
At the other end of the political spectrum, the NDP are fighting for relevance after the 2025 election reduced them to seven seats and saw their leader resign. The party is voting to choose a new leader in March 2026, making the prospect of an election now without a permanent leader an unappealing prospect. However, the decision by two members to abstain revives bitter memories of the party’s deal to prop up the previous Liberal government, which angered many members and became a factor in the New Democrats’ defeat.
How stable is the government?
With the budget passed, the Liberals don’t need to worry about another confidence vote until the fall of 2026. But nothing prevents the government from going to the polls at any time, if it thinks it could be to its advantage. The longest a government can stay in power in Canada is five years, but the average lifespan of a government without a locked-in majority of Parliament is about two years. The timing of the next election could hinge on many factors, including striking a trade deal with Trump, the state of the Canadian economy, and the strength – or weakness - of opposition leaders.
Participation = trust: Malawi’s citizens’ juries deliver democracy
Public trust isn’t a “nice to have," it’s the foundation of democracy.
Ambassador Agnes Mary Chimbiri-Molande explains how citizens’ juries in Malawi bring people into local budgeting and development decisions, building transparency and trust by design.
Excerpt from a Global Stage livestream at UN HQ on the International Day of Democracy at the 80th UN General Assembly.
Watch more of GZERO Media’s Global Stage series, sponsored by Microsoft, from the 80th Session of the United Nations General Assembly here: gzeromedia.com/globalstage
UN SG Guterres on a world in chaos and a UN in crisis
Wars are raging, tensions are rising, and trust in global institutions is collapsing. From Gaza to Ukraine to Sudan, the world is on fire—and the one institution meant to keep the peace is facing a historic financial crisis.
On the GZERO World Podcast, Ian Bremmer speaks with United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres about the UN’s role in an era of war, division, and dwindling support. With the US cutting funding and other major powers following suit, the UN is preparing to slash its budget by 15%—even as demand for peacekeeping and aid hits record highs.
“What’s happening today in Gaza is morally, politically, and legally intolerable” Guterres tells Bremmer. With funding for life-saving aid programs evaporating, the Western-led global order that has kept the world on solid ground since WWII risks failing just when it is needed most.
Subscribe to the GZERO World Podcast on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, or your preferred podcast platform, to receive new episodes as soon as they're publishedSupporters of the recall movement gather in Taipei, Taiwan July 19, 2025.
Total Recall: Taiwan attempts a do-over of last year’s elections
This Saturday, Taiwan will try to do something that no democracy has ever done: a mass recall of lawmakers who serve in the national legislature.
Around one-third of the island’s voters will head to the polls in what local media outlets are dubbing “The Great Recall” – an effort to remove 31 of the country’s 113-seat legislature.
“It is unprecedented in Taiwan’s history,” says David Sacks, Asia Studies Fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations. “We haven't seen a similar recall effort in any democracy in the world.”
What’s more, the outcome will determine which party controls Taiwan’s legislature. The fate of 24 lawmakers – all from the country’s main opposition party, the Kuomintang (KMT) – will be decided on Saturday, with another 7 recall votes scheduled to take place later in August.
So, what are the recall elections about? Last year, William Lai won the presidency, but his Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) lost its parliamentary majority to a coalition led by the KMT, a long-time rival. Since then, frictions between the legislature and the presidency have been high, with the opposition blocking Lai’s legislative agenda – including key spending on defense and foreign affairs – while also seeking to expand the power of the legislature itself.
The DPP is betting that the recalls, initially launched by a group of civil society activists, will help break the political gridlock and allow them to retake their majority in the legislature.
“The DPP hopes that they can shift the balance of power in the legislature in their direction,” says Bonnie Glaser, director of the German Marshall Fund’s Indo-Pacific program. “If a president has control of the legislature or the parliament, then they have a much stronger ability to get their own agendas funded.”
What’s China’s role in all of this? A key question in the recall votes is where lawmakers stand toward Beijing, which views self-governing Taiwan as part of China. The KMT is open to eventual reunification with the mainland, while the DPP is fiercely opposed.
So while the DPP frames the mass recalls as a move to protect Taiwan’s national security from “pro-CCP” KMT lawmakers, the KMT says the DPP is undermining democratic institutions by trying to relitigate an election it already lost.
How likely are the recalls to succeed? The DPP needs to flip just 6 of the KMT’s seats to regain its legislative majority. But it’s not a slam dunk: to successfully unseat a lawmaker, turnout in their district must exceed 50%, with a majority voting in favor of a recall.
And even if Saturday’s recall elections do succeed, the affected districts will then head to by-elections, where DPP candidates must face off against new KMT challengers.
“Many of these people who are being recalled come from districts that are very heavily pro-[KMT],” says Glaser. “So it is more likely, in most of these districts where the KMT is recalled, that simply another KMT legislator will be voted in a by-election in the fall.”
What effect will the recalls have on Taiwan’s domestic politics? If they succeed, it will make it easier for Lai to push ahead with his agenda, although at the cost of potentially inflaming already deep partisan divides.
“Taiwan has very fractious political dynamics,” Sacks warns. “We've seen brawls in the legislature. We've seen pig and cow parts thrown at legislators.” (Yes, you can watch that here.)
If the recalls fail, however, it could at least in the short term force the DPP to change tactics.
“If this gambit doesn’t work, [the DPP] may come to terms with the fact that it’s just going to have to face a divided legislature in order to get things done,” says Glaser. “[And] they’re going to have to engage more with the opposition.”
But other experts warn that the recalls could open a pandora’s box.
“This episode shows that recalls are now part of Taiwanese political culture,” says Ava Shen, Eurasia Group’s regional expert, “and they will emerge again when the conditions align.”
French Prime Minister Francois Bayrou speaks during a news conference to present a major public finance recovery plan in Paris, France, July 15, 2025.
Hard Numbers: French prime minister on the ropes, Hong Kong dissidents appeal convictions, Lesotho MP accuses his king, & More
€40 billion: French Prime Minister François Bayrou is set to present a 2026 budget Tuesday that aims to cut the size of the country’s 2026 annual deficit by €40 billion ($46.7 billion). However, all opposition parties are expected to reject the proposal – and that could spell the end for Bayrou’s minority government.
12: Hong Kong’s pro-democracy dissidents aren’t going to go gentle into that good night. Twelve of them have appealed their recent subversion convictions in a move that shines a fresh light on Beijing’s anti-democracy crackdown in the city. The case, which challenges China’s draconian 2021 national security law, is drawing international attention: foreign diplomats from over six countries were present at the trial. The appeals are expected to take 10 days.
59: Lesotho won independence from the United Kingdom 59 years ago, but one member of the tiny southern African nation’s parliament has accused its king of signing parts of the country away again – to its neighbor South Africa. The accusation stems from a decades-old border dispute, but the MP who leveled the charge now faces criminal charges for doing so. Lesotho gained notoriety in March when US President Donald Trump said “nobody has ever heard of” the country.
6: Six members of United Torah Judaism – an ultra-Orthodox political party – have quit Israel’s ruling coalition again over Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s failure to guarantee military exemptions for yeshiva students. While Netanyahu has survived this once before, their departure leaves him with yet another slim majority in parliament.Israel Prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Itamar Ben Gvir shake hands as the Israeli government approve Netanyahu's proposal to reappoint Itamar Ben-Gvir as minister of National Security, in the Knesset, Israeli parliament in Jerusaelm, March 19, 2025
Israel gets “budget of war” amid new plans for Gaza and West Bank
It also included a series of tax hikes that were heavily criticized by opposition parties. Outside the Knesset, demonstrators protested the government’s failure to secure the release of the remaining 59 Israeli hostages as well as recent moves by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to dismiss the head of Israel’s intelligence agency and its attorney general.
For all the protests, the budget’s passage represents “a significant political win for Netanyahu,” according to Eurasia Group managing director Firas Maksad.
“With greater room to maneuver politically from here on, the big question is if the prime minister will be more flexible on moving towards phase two of the ceasefire agreement in Gaza, thereby beginning to bring the conflict with Hamas to close,” Maksad added.
A fund for war? Israel is reportedly preparing a major ground offensive in Gaza after the end of the recent two-month ceasefire, including seizing additional territories and potentially occupying the enclave. “If there are not renewed hostage negotiations, then the only alternative left is to resume the fighting,” warned Eyal Hulata, former head of Israel’s National Security Council. “And there are serious plans.”
Other plans include creating new settlements on the West Bank. Last week, Israel’s security cabinet greenlit a decision to split off 13 “neighborhoods” of existing West Bank settlements, established decades ago without authorization, from their “mother settlement,” creating independent settlements. The Palestinian Authority condemned the move as well as increased Israeli military operations in the northern West Bank as “an unprecedented escalation in the confiscation of Palestinian lands.”
Tensions in the West Bank have been escalating for months. On Monday, the Oscar-winning Palestinian director of “No Other Land,” Hamdan Ballal, was detained by Israeli forces on accusations of “rock throwing,” which he denied, after being attacked by settlers in the village of Susya. Ballal was released Tuesday and said he was beaten and blindfolded for 24 hours while in custody, and the Israeli military has not responded to the allegation.
FILE PHOTO: Canada's Foreign Minister Chrystia Freeland speaks during a news conference at the Canadian Embassy in Washington D.C., U.S. June 13, 2019.
Freeland to miss her target, thanks to Trudeau
Canadian Finance Minister Chyrstia Freeland is expected to reveal Monday that she has missed the $40.1 billion deficit target that she set for herself last year, the latest in a long string of fiscal targets Justin Trudeau’s government has missed over the years.
Freeland said Tuesday she expects the fall economic statement, which she will present on Dec. 16, will show a declining debt-to-GDP ratio, but she did not mention the deficit target. “I chose my words with care because it is important to be clear with Canadians. It is important to be clear with capital markets.”
The missed target will make Freeland a target of criticism by the business community and Conservatives.
According to a report in The Globe and Mail, Freeland and Trudeau are at odds over spending. Her office and nonpartisan Finance Department officials are unhappy about the government’s $6.28-billion plan for a holiday sales-tax break and $250 checks for people earning up to $150,000.
The gimmicky measures – which have not moved the polls for the Liberals – seem to have made it impossible for Freeland to hit her target.
The tension between Freeland and Trudeau revives questions about her future in the government. Trudeau brought Public Safety Minister Dominic LeBlanc, not her, to Mar-A-Lago last month, and the Globe reported Thursday that Trudeau is again trying to recruit Mark Carney, presumably to take her job.Correction: This post originally referred to Dominic LeBlanc as the transport minister.