This Saturday, Taiwan will try to do something that no democracy has ever done: a mass recall of lawmakers who serve in the national legislature.
Around one-third of the island’s voters will head to the polls in what local media outlets are dubbing “The Great Recall” – an effort to remove 31 of the country’s 113-seat legislature.
“It is unprecedented in Taiwan’s history,” says David Sacks, Asia Studies Fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations. “We haven't seen a similar recall effort in any democracy in the world.”
What’s more, the outcome will determine which party controls Taiwan’s legislature. The fate of 24 lawmakers – all from the country’s main opposition party, the Kuomintang (KMT) – will be decided on Saturday, with another 7 recall votes scheduled to take place later in August.
So, what are the recall elections about? Last year, William Lai won the presidency, but his Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) lost its parliamentary majority to a coalition led by the KMT, a long-time rival. Since then, frictions between the legislature and the presidency have been high, with the opposition blocking Lai’s legislative agenda – including key spending on defense and foreign affairs – while also seeking to expand the power of the legislature itself.
The DPP is betting that the recalls, initially launched by a group of civil society activists, will help break the political gridlock and allow them to retake their majority in the legislature.
“The DPP hopes that they can shift the balance of power in the legislature in their direction,” says Bonnie Glaser, director of the German Marshall Fund’s Indo-Pacific program. “If a president has control of the legislature or the parliament, then they have a much stronger ability to get their own agendas funded.”
What’s China’s role in all of this? A key question in the recall votes is where lawmakers stand toward Beijing, which views self-governing Taiwan as part of China. The KMT is open to eventual reunification with the mainland, while the DPP is fiercely opposed.
So while the DPP frames the mass recalls as a move to protect Taiwan’s national security from “pro-CCP” KMT lawmakers, the KMT says the DPP is undermining democratic institutions by trying to relitigate an election it already lost.
How likely are the recalls to succeed? The DPP needs to flip just 6 of the KMT’s 31 seats to regain its legislative majority. But it’s not a slam dunk: to successfully unseat a lawmaker, turnout in their district must exceed 50%, with a majority voting in favor of a recall.
And even if Saturday’s recall elections do succeed, the affected districts will then head to by-elections, where DPP candidates must face off against new KMT challengers.
“Many of these people who are being recalled come from districts that are very heavily pro-[KMT],” says Glaser. “So it is more likely, in most of these districts where the KMT is recalled, that simply another KMT legislator will be voted in a by-election in the fall.”
What effect will the recalls have on Taiwan’s domestic politics? If they succeed, it will make it easier for Lai to push ahead with his agenda, although at the cost of potentially inflaming already deep partisan divides.
“Taiwan has very fractious political dynamics,” Sacks warns. “We've seen brawls in the legislature. We've seen pig and cow parts thrown at legislators.” (Yes, you can watch that here.)
If the recalls fail, however, it could at least in the short term force the DPP to change tactics.
“If this gambit doesn’t work, [the DPP] may come to terms with the fact that it’s just going to have to face a divided legislature in order to get things done,” says Glaser. “[And] they’re going to have to engage more with the opposition.”
But other experts warn that the recalls could open a pandora’s box.
“This episode shows that recalls are now part of Taiwanese political culture,” says Ava Shen, Eurasia Group’s regional expert, “and they will emerge again when the conditions align.”