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COP28 climate talks complicated by UAE oil deals
Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week on World In :60.
Will the UAE’s pursuit of oil deals during COP28 undermine the summit's climate goals?
Well, it certainly doesn't make it any easier. I mean, this is the time when the world comes together and tries to reduce the level of carbon in the atmosphere, and the fact that it's being hosted by one of the world's largest oil producers and by the chairman, the CEO of one of the world's largest oil companies, who also is driving his country's sustainability goals. Well, I mean, I guess you can say he's hedged. You can definitely say that but you can also say it's challenging and problematic. Look, there was a chance that COP was going to fall apart completely and you were just going to have fragmented bilateral deals. The Chinese, for example, get much more influence giving out money directly in return for things with countries than being a part of a multilateral group. Having said that, US and China recently have come together on climate in advance, specifically of COP28, and there is more movement on methane emissions from the two largest emitters in the world. There's more movement on carbon capture and storage than we've seen before. Look, I'm glad the meetings happened. It is happening. It's going to be more successful than it not showing up. But there are big challenges and you're going to hear those frustrations loudly from the developing world who are taking climate on the chin.
How will Taiwan's upcoming election affect US-China relationship?
It's coming up January 13th and it look like there was a deal being put together between the two opposition candidates. That deal is now falling apart, which means it is more likely that the vice president and his representative in Washington who is going to run on the ticket with him for the DPP, the Nationalist Party, the pro autonomy as the Chinese government in Beijing says the pro-independence party, is likely to win. That means more tensions over Taiwan, with China and Taiwan and with the Americans and China. So definitely next year that's going to be a more significant risk, something for us all to watch.
Will Elon Musk provide Starlink to Gaza?
Sure he will, as long as the Israeli government says it's okay. The interesting point here is that do you want decisions over where technology is and is not provided that will change the security balance on the ground between countries decided by one man. That is what happened with Russia and Ukraine, largely to Ukraine's favor, though not consistently and not always. That is what's happening in Israel and Gaza to Israel's favor. And that is what would happen between mainland China and Taiwan in mainland China’s favor, because that's where Elon has all of his economic bets, not in favor of Taiwan. And by the way, if you're the US government or a NATO member or Japan, what that means is that you really need to be developing your own technologies or having those technologies in companies that are national champions like Lockheed was in the days in the 20th century, first company ever referred to as “too big to fail” because of the dangers to American national security if something happened to it. This is a very important issue what I call a techno-polar moment and one that is becoming much more significant over time.
Hou Yu-ih, left, candidate for Taiwan's presidency from the main opposition Kuomintang Party, and Jaw Shaw-Kong, vice presidential candidate, wave at the Central Election Commission in Taipei on Nov. 24, 2023.
Taiwan’s unity ticket falls apart at the altar
The opposition’s shotgun wedding is off in Taiwan. Just two weeks ago, with the blessing of Beijing, the Kuomintang Party and the Taiwan People’s Party announced their intention to field a single candidate in the country’s Jan. 13 election in the hopes of defeating the ruling Democratic Progressive Party. It was a move cheered by China, which is no fan of the current frontrunner, DPP’s pro-independence candidate, William Lai Ching-te.
But on Thursday, negotiations collapsed on the political equivalent of a reality TV show as business magnate and independent candidate Terry Gou moderated a live broadcast of efforts to break the deadlock over which opposition party’s candidate should be on the ballot. After mutual accusations of bad faith, KMT leader Hou Yu-ih read a private text message from TPP rival Ko Wen-Je that said Gou needed to “find a reason” to drop out of the presidential race. In a dramatic finale, KMT negotiators walked off the set as the cameras were rolling.
Both opposition parties have now registered separate candidates in the race. The entire spectacle played into the DPP’s hands, prompting Lai to ask, “Should we dare to hand over the business of running the country to these people?”
The opposition now has little chance of defeating Lai, who further boosted his candidacy last week by naming Hsiao Bi-Kim, Taiwan’s representative to the United States, as his vice-presidential running mate. Since Beijing considers the pair a “union of pro-independence separatists,” analysts agree that a Lai-Hsaio victory would likely further degrade already hostile relations between Taiwan and China, leading to greater military escalation and economic coercion.
Eric Chu, Taiwan’s main opposition Kuomintang (KMT) chairman, Hou Yu-ih, KMT presidential candidate, Ma Ying-jeou, former Taiwan president and Ke Wen-je, presidential candidate from the Taiwan People’s Party (TPP) pose after thier meeting on November 15, 2023.
Will Taiwan’s opposition unity ticket remain united?
The two main Taiwanese opposition parties are deadlocked over how to interpret the polls that will determine which of their preferred presidential candidates squares up against incumbent party candidate William Lai in January. If they don’t reach an agreement by Wednesday — it’s looking unlikely — Lai’s probable victory will likely raise tensions across the Taiwan Strait and pose problems for the US-China relationship.
Last week, the Kuomintang Party, backing Hou Yu-ih, and the Taiwan People’s Party, backing Ko Wen-je, announced an agreement by which one of the two men would bow out based on the results of public and internal polling. Doing so would prevent splitting the opposition vote and put Lai under serious pressure. However, by Sunday, each side was squabbling about which specific polls merited inclusion and how to measure the margin of error.
There’s still a chance they can smooth it out, but they’ll need to act fast, says Eurasia Group Taiwan expert Ava Shen. The candidates need to be registered by Friday to be on the ballot come January.
Should they fail, Lai’s chances of winning remain high, much to the chagrin of officials in Beijing who would prefer the more dovish cross-strait policies of either Hou or Ko. Lai’s recent announcement that Hsiao Bi-khim, Taiwan’s former representative to the US, will be his running mate has done nothing to alleviate Beijing’s concerns. Hsiao was deeply involved in organizing former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit last year, which infuriated China and caused a major rupture in US ties.
“[Hsiao’s] nomination has further convinced Beijing that this is not a government that Beijing could work with if they come to power,” said Shen. “And, in turn, Beijing would perceive more utility in cranking up the pressure on Taiwan through military means and through economic coercion measures.”
Eric Chu, Hou Yu-ih, Ma Ying-jeou and Ko Wen-je hold hands as they pose for a group photo in Taipei, Taiwan.
Opposition unity in Taiwan lifts hopes in Beijing
On the sidelines at Wednesday’s APEC meeting in San Francisco, Presidents Joe Biden and Xi Jinping received news that might make US-Chinese relations a little less tense, as Taiwan’s upcoming presidential election campaign just got a lot more interesting.
For months, the current vice president, William Lai of the Democratic Progressive Party, has been favored to win on Jan. 13, in part because his two main challengers, Hou Yu-ih of the Kuomintang Party and Ko Wen-je of the Taiwan People’s Party, were expected to split the anti-Lai vote. But on Wednesday, the two opposition parties announced they would form a unity coalition behind a single candidate to defeat Lai and the DPP.
This news sharply increases the odds of an opposition victory, an outcome that would be welcomed as good news in Beijing. China’s government considers Lai a champion of Taiwan’s independence movement, while the opposition favors talks and closer ties with the mainland. For the same reason, an opposition win, still far from a sure thing, would also ease China-US tensions, which have run high as China applies heightened military pressure on the island. Most experts consider a war over Taiwan unlikely over the next year, but near-miss encounters involving US and Chinese naval vessels and aircraft in the Taiwan Straits have raised serious concerns in recent months.
It remains unclear for the moment whether the unity opposition candidate will be Hou or Ko. That will depend on polling over the next few days, and experts say it’ll be a close race. But for now, both candidates appear set to move forward on a joint ticket.
Meanwhile, Lai, who’s polling at 35.2%, remains confident he can still win.
A general view of damage due to volcanic activity at a golf course, in Grindavik, Iceland Nov. 11, 2023.
Hard Numbers: Iceland's eruption alert, Scott's campaign ends, Myanmar junta's challenge, Japan's evacuation drill, Aussie's Tuvalu deal, Djibouti's first satellite
12: All eyes are on Iceland as the island nation braces for a volcanic eruption on a 12-mile stretch of the Reykjanes Peninsula. The town of Grindavik, population 3,000, has been evacuated after hundreds of earthquakes rattled the country within 48 hours and amid fears that it could be completely obliterated.
7: Sen. Tim Scott on Sunday suspended his campaign for the presidency just four days after the latest presidential debate in Miami and amid reported fundraising woes. Scott's departure leaves 7 contenders vying for the Republican presidential nomination.
50,000: A Myanmar fighter jet crashed Saturday near the country’s border with Thailand during fighting between military forces and the Karenni Nationalities Defense Force, who claimed responsibility for downing the plane. The ruling junta, installed after a 2021 coup, says the jet crashed due to a technical problem. The military is battling rebels on numerous fronts, including in Shan State on the border with China, where 50,000 people have fled since an anti-junta offensive was launched last month by three ethnic minority insurgent groups.
200: Japan held a tsunami evacuation drill on Yonaguni, its westernmost island, which sits just 68 miles from Taiwan. In anticipation of that country’s presidential elections in January and amid fears of Chinese aggression, Tokyo twinned the exercise with a drill to help residents respond to any attempt by Beijing to take control of Taiwan. About 200 Yonaguni officials and members of Japan's Self-Defense Force took part in the exercise.
280: Under a new treaty called the Falepili Union, Australia will grant 280 visas per year to residents of the low-lying island nation of Tuvalu, which is at risk from rising seas thanks to the effects of climate change. It marks the first time Australia has offered residency to foreign nationals based on this threat. The treaty also commits Australia to defend Tuvalu from military aggression and obliges Tuvalu to forgo other defense pacts unless it obtains Australia’s prior approval.
1A: In collaboration with engineers at the French Centre Spatial Universitaire de Montpellier, the African Republic of Djibouti launched its first satellite this weekend from the Vandenberg Space Force Base. Djibouti 1A will collect national, real-time data from climatological and seismic stations, including temperature, rainfall, river depth, and hydrometry, to help boost agricultural production and monitor environmental changes.
A Philippine supply boat sails near a Chinese Coast Guard ship during a resupply mission for Filipino troops stationed at a grounded warship in the South China Sea, on Oct. 4, 2023.
Can Biden-Xi meeting ease tensions?
In the lead-up to the upcoming meeting between US President Joe Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping at the APEC Summit in San Francisco, America’s China policy chief sat down with Beijing’s top border official to discuss the increasingly volatile situation in the South China and East China Seas.
US Department of State’s China Coordinator Mark Lambert spoke with Chinese Foreign Office’s Director-General for Boundary and Ocean Affairs Hong Liang in Beijing, with both sides attempting to lower the temperature after another week of tensions in the region.
On Friday, Canadian Defence Minister Bill Blair accused Chinese warplanes of buzzing a Canadian helicopter over international waters in the South China Sea and firing flares at it, endangering the crew. On Saturday, China’s Defence Ministry hit back that the helicopter had “unknown intent” and engaged in a “malicious” and “provocative” act with “ulterior motives.”
These salvos come the same week that China accused a Philippine military vessel of sailing too close to Scarborough Shoal, territory that China seized in 2012, but which falls within the Philippine’s Exclusive Economic Zone according to international maritime law. And late last month, Manila accused a Chinese coast guard ship of ramming two Philippine ships near Second Thomas, or Ayungin, Shoal, which also lies within its EEZ.
This backdrop sets the tone not only for Biden and Xi’s meeting, but for Taiwan’s presidential elections, scheduled for January 2024. According to Rick Waters, managing director of Eurasia Group’s China practice and, until recently, the State Department’s deputy assistant secretary for China and Taiwan, “The challenge for the [US] president going into the meetings in San Francisco is going to be this: if you look carefully at what the Chinese say about Biden and about his Taiwan policy, they don’t doubt his intentions.” Biden has stated on four occasions that the US would defend Taiwan in the event of an attack by China.
Some observers believe US diplomatic efforts are geared to avoid opening a third front in addition to the conflicts in Ukraine and Israel, which would strain Washington’s military and economic resources. We will be watching to see whether Biden’s diplomacy can successfully calm the waters.Scores of foreign passport holders trapped in Gaza started leaving the war-torn Palestinian territory on Nov. 1 -- some are seen here waiting at the Rafah border crossing in the southern Gaza Strip before crossing into Egypt.
Hard Numbers: Egypt accepts Gazan evacuees, Debating a 70-hour work week, Pushing voters buttons with warplanes, Afghan refugee arrests
400: On Wednesday, Egypt allowedmore than 400 people, injured Palestinians and foreign nationals, to enter the country from Gaza. These were the first refugees allowed across the border, and Egypt will face international pressure to accept many more. Egypt’s government, fearing the long-term burden that large numbers of refugees might impose, will continue to resist.
70: Indian software billionaire NR Narayana Murthy kicked off a furious debate within his country with a recent comment that India’s young people should work 70 hours per week. (Mr. Murthy is the father-in-law of UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak.)
43: Taiwan’s Defense Ministry announced Wednesday it had detected 43 Chinese warplanes and seven naval vessels near the island in a single 24-hour period. There are many reasons why Beijing is unlikely to launch a war anytime soon, but it does hope to persuade Taiwan’s voters to elect a new president in January who has a more cooperative relationship with Beijing than the outgoing incumbent has had.
1.7 million: On Wednesday, authorities in Pakistan began nationwide arrests of Afghan refugees who lack permission to remain in the country as the deadline passed for undocumented Afghans to leave. There are some 1.7 million undocumented Afghans still in Pakistan, and Pakistan’s government hopes the arrests will spur more to leave on their own.People walk next to damaged trees in the aftermath of Hurricane Otis, in Acapulco, Mexico, on Oct. 29, 2023.
Hard Numbers: Otis death toll mounts, Taiwanese march for marriage equality, illegal Indian migrants in the US, South Africa’s rugby win, Sweden proves No. 1
43: The death toll in Acapulco following Hurricane Otis now stands at 43. Another five were killed in nearby Coyuca de Benitez, and dozens of people remain missing. Authorities say more than 220,000 homes and 80% of the hotel sector have been damaged, while more than 513,000 people have lost power.
180,000: An estimated 180,000 people marched on Saturday in a Taipei Pride march – East Asia’s largest – including the country’s leading presidential candidate. The most senior government official to ever attend, Vice President Lai Ching-te declared, "Equal marriage is not the end — it's the starting point for diversity. I will stand steadfast on this path."
42,000: Approximately 42,000 migrants from India crossed the southern US border illegally between October 2022 and September 2023, according to data compiled by the US Customs and Border Protection. That’s more than double the previous record number from the same period a year earlier. An additional 1,600 have crossed illegally from the northern border, four times the number who crossed in the last three years combined.
4: In what was described as an epic, rainy seesaw of a match, South Africa won its fourth consecutive world rugby title, beating New Zealand 12-11. No team has ever won four titles, making South Africa’s Springboks the undisputed rulers of rugby.
1: Let’s move to Sweden! In a ranking of 87 countries by cost of living, Numbeo ranked Sweden number one for affordability, safety, and overall quality of life. The cost of living in Sweden is, on average, 20.9% lower than in the United States, while renting is 57.5% lower.