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Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk reacts after a vote of confidence for his center-left coalition government, in Warsaw, Poland, June 11, 2025.
Hard Numbers: Polish PM’s gamble pays off, UK sanctions Israeli government ministers, Taiwan indicts Chinese “spies”, and more
33: Poland’s Prime Minister Donald Tusk survived a no-confidence measure on Wednesday by a margin of 33 votes in the 460 seat legislature. Tusk had called the vote himself in a bid to reinforce his mandate after an ally of his lost the presidential election to a rightwing challenger late last month.
4: Taiwanese prosecutors indicted four former members of the ruling Democratic Progressive Party over allegations of spying for China. One of the alleged suspects worked as an assistant to former Foreign Minister Joseph Wu, who is now the secretary-general of Taiwan’s National Security Council.
0.1%: The US’ annual inflation index rose by 0.1 points from 2.3% last month—an early indication that Trump’s tariffs are having only a modest impact on consumer prices so far.
5: Five western countries – Australia, Canada, New Zealand, Norway, and the UK – imposed sanctions on two of Israel’s far-right ministers on Tuesday, accusing Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich of “inciting extremist violence” in the West Bank and denying essential aid to Palestinians in Gaza. Israel’s foreign minister Gideon Saar pledged a response to the “outrageous” move.
40%: US National Institutes of Health Director Dr. Jay Bhattacharyadefended his agency during a Senate hearing on Tuesday after the Trump administration proposed a 40% budget cut to it. Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME) slammed the proposed cuts, which would lower the NIH’s total budget to $27.5 billion for the next fiscal year.
1,200: Russia and Ukraine began a major prisoner swap earlier this week, with each side expected to hand over at least 1,200 prisoners. However, prospects for a ceasefire remain distant: Kyiv and Moscow have exchanged ferocious aerial assaults in recent days.
Can Taiwan defend itself from Chinese invasion?
Can Taiwan defend itself from a Chinese invasion? On GZERO World, Ian Bremmer sits down with Bonny Lin, director of the China Power Project at CSIS, to break down Beijing’s increasingly aggressive military maneuvers around the island and what it means for Taipei’s future. Since Taiwan’s pro-independence president William Lai took office in 2024, China has stepped up both the frequency and scale of its military operations, with daily air and naval incursions into Taiwan’s air defense zone.
It’s an alarming escalation, making the possibility of armed conflict feel closer than ever. China has made clear it’s deadly serious about using military force if it needs to: the People’s Liberation Army recently unveiled two mobile bridges that could be used for an amphibious invasion and is reportedly building a massive underground military facility near Beijing 10x the size of the Pentagon. But despite this pressure, Taiwan’s geographic separation gives it a strategic edge.
“Regardless of how capable you assess the Chinese military,” Lin says, “A Chinese amphibious invasion of Taiwan would be the most complex military operation we’ve seen in history, more complex than the Normandy invasion.”
GZERO World with Ian Bremmer, the award-winning weekly global affairs series, airs nationwide on US public television stations (check local listings).
New digital episodes of GZERO World are released every Monday on YouTube. Don't miss an episode: subscribe to GZERO's YouTube channel and turn on notifications (🔔).GZERO World with Ian Bremmer airs on US public television weekly - check local listings.
Taiwan's strategy for countering a Chinese invasion, with Bonny Lin of CSIS
On this week’s GZERO World Podcast, Ian Bremmer sits down with Bonny Lin, director of the China Power Project at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, for a look at one of the most dangerous flashpoints in the world: the Taiwan Strait. China has been conducting drills around Taiwan for years, but since the current pro-independence president, William Lai, took office in 2024, Beijing has been staging near-daily military exercises near the island–larger, louder, and more aggressive than ever before.
Lai has pledged to boost defense spending, strengthen ties with the US, and reduce Taiwan’s economic dependence on China. But Lai faces serious political headwinds at home. His party lost its majority in parliament, and he’ll have to navigate a deeply divided government to get anything done. Meanwhile, Chinese President Xi Jinping says reunification with Taiwan is a national priority and has made it clear Beijing won’t hesitate to take the island by force if necessary. The stakes are global: A war in the Strait would reshape the world economy, drag in major powers, potentially triggering the deadliest military conflict in the Asia-Pacific since World War II. So how far can China push, and how long can Taiwan hold out, before a crisis becomes inevitable?
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How China would seize Taiwan without firing a shot
Chinese President Xi Jinping has made reunification with Taiwan a key pillar of his nationalist agenda. He’s ordered the People’s Liberation Army to be ready to seize Taiwan by 2027, and the PLA has been conducting near-daily military drills around the island–larger, louder, and more aggressive than ever before. On Ian Explains, Ian Bremmer breaks down how China could seize Taiwan without firing a single shot.
The rising tensions in the Taiwan Strait have policymakers and military analysts nervous China is preparing for an invasion. But is armed conflict with Taiwan in Beijing’s best interest? It would be deadly, costly, and likely to drag into the US and its allies. But short of an all-out invasion, China has plenty of options to force unification with Taiwan. It’s known as “gray zone” warfare—action that stays just below a threshold that would trigger an international response, which is ideal for Beijing: no missiles, no tanks, just a slow, suffocating squeeze.
GZERO World with Ian Bremmer, the award-winning weekly global affairs series, airs nationwide on US public television stations (check local listings).
New digital episodes of GZERO World are released every Monday on YouTube. Don't miss an episode: subscribe to GZERO's YouTube channel and turn on notifications (🔔).GZERO World with Ian Bremmer airs on US public television weekly - check local listings.
Leading Republican senators during their weekly briefing in the US Capitol in Washington, D.C., USA, on May 20, 2025.
What We’re Watching: “Big Beautiful” bill heads for the Senate, UK gives up Chagos Islands, Taiwan pivots to drones
House passes Trump’s tax agenda, but senators will now have their say
By a margin of just one vote, the US House early on Thursday passed a budget bill containing President Donald Trump’s tax agenda, which centers on making his 2017 tax cuts permanent. Some last-minute changes to the bill helped to get it over the line: House Republicans increased the SALT-cap to $40,000 and accelerated the introduction of work requirements for Medicaid. But can the GOP get the bill through the US Senate? Lawmakers in the upper chamber are already plotting changes to the legislation...
You can Chagos your own way: UK hands islands back to Mauritius, leases back base
More than two centuries after taking the Chagos Islands from France, the United Kingdom relinquished the Indian Ocean archipelago to Mauritius, but will continue to lease a US-UK military base there, on the island of Diego Garcia, for another 99 years. The UK says the deal, which creates a 24-mile buffer zone around the base, is meant to ensure its long-term security amid growing Chinese aggression in the area. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio welcomed the deal.
Taiwan adds new drone units as part of shifting military strategy
Ever wary of a potential Chinese invasion, Taiwan announced that it will introduce its first-ever drone units this year. The move is part of Taipei’s evolving strategy of effectively deterring Beijing rather than preparing for a direct fight. “Overall, the cross-strait military balance still tilts toward China’s favor, since China spends a lot more on defense,” says Eurasia Group regional expert Ava Shen. “So it’s more pragmatic for Taiwan to be a ‘porcupine,’ so to speak.”An aerial photo shows the Kumamoto factory of Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., Ltd. (TSMC), the largest semiconductor contract manufacturer, in Kikuyo Town, Kumamoto Prefecture, Japan, on March 14, 2025.
Trump prepares to slap tariffs on semiconductors and pharma
The topsy-turvy-tariff tale continued to swing this week, as the Trump administration advanced a plan on Monday that could result in new levies on semiconductors and pharmaceuticals. The news came days after US President Donald Trump announced that smartphones would be exempt from the 145% duty that he had slapped on China.
Officially, the plan involves a first step of investigating the national security implications of importing pharma and semiconductors. The next step would be to invoke Section 232 of the 1962 Trade Expansion Act, which allows a president to impose tariffs in the interests of protecting national security. As such, the means for this latest slate of levies would be different from the widescale duties announced on “liberation day.”
Countries affected. The United States relies heavily on Taiwan in particular for semiconductors — one plant there crafts 92% of the world’s advanced chips. As for pharmaceuticals, the US imports many from China, Ireland, and India.
All that and a bag of CHIPS. Former President Joe Biden tried to spark the US’s own semiconductor industry with the 2022 CHIPS and Science Act, which allocated $53 billion for domestic semiconductor manufacturing. Trump said last month he wanted to “get rid of” the CHIPS Act, yet his more recent actions suggest he’s interested in leveraging the law to further his plan to reduce US reliance on foreign chips.A giant screen in Beijing shows news footage about the People's Liberation Army (PLA) joint army, navy, air and rocket forces drills around Taiwan on April 1, 2025.
China conducts massive military drills around Taiwan.
China on Tuesday conducted one of the largest military drills to date in the waters and skies around Taiwan.
Beijing said the operation — in which dozens of aircraft and warships breached Taiwan’s de facto boundaries — was a dry run for “seizing comprehensive control” of the self-governing island.
The backstory: The island has ruled itself for decades, but Beijing views it as part of China, and President Xi Jinping has promised to reintegrate it — by force if need be. The US nominally recognizes China’s claims but, in practice, provides substantial security support to the island.
Why now? Taiwan’s staunchly pro-independence president Lai Ching-te, who took office last May, has, from Beijing’s perspective, gotten too mouthy, calling China a “foreign hostile force” and bolstering the island’s defense capabilities. Beijing called him a “a parasite” and blasted his “pro-independence provocations.” (Read more about him here.)
The US angle. Trump has signaled he’ll focus on countering China in Asia, but also that he expects Taiwan to shoulder a bigger share of its own defense burden. Beijing could be testing the waters, so to speak, not only around Taiwan but around the White House as well.
“The US was the secondary audience of the military exercises,” says Ava Shen, a China analyst at Eurasia Group. “The Chinese military announcement of the exercises also had an English version, which suggests China wanted to express its opposition to US continued support for Taiwan.”
U.S. President Donald Trump meets with China's President Xi Jinping at the start of their bilateral meeting at the G20 leaders summit in Osaka, Japan, June 29, 2019.
Trump's China policy risks allies
What is President Donald Trump’s strategy on China? On the one hand, he slapped additional 10% tariffs on Chinese goods and is considering$1 million fees on Chinese-built vessels entering US ports. On the other, Washington and Beijing are reportedly discussing a cozy-sounding“birthday summit” between Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping to talk trade in June. It’s enough to give investors whiplash – and make neighboring nations nervous.
And they may have good reason. Last week, Trump issued an“advance warning” to long-time allies Japan and South Korea that he is not prepared to defend them against Chinese aggression unless they make economic concessions. He complained that the American security treaty with Japanis nonreciprocal and claimed that “South Korea’s average tariff is four times higher” than that of the US.
But Trump was referencing South Korea’s Most Favored Nations tariff of 13.4%, which does not apply to most goods traded between the two countries since they signed a free trade deal in 2012. The actual tariff rate charged by South Korea on US goods is 0.79%, leading Seoul to offer to resolve any “misunderstanding” about the real charge.
Meanwhile, China’s talking tough. The Chinese defense ministry recently stated that it will“tighten the noose” around Taiwan if its pro-independence movements escalate. This signals that China will continue to use military gray-zone coercion against Taiwan to deter moves toward – or remarks about – independence, according to Eurasia Group regional expert Ava Shen. Beijing has also vowed to fight a tariff war with the US “to the bitter end” and is busily tariffing other nations, such as Canada, which sawa 25% tariff imposed on seafood, including important lobster exports, as of March 20.