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Halime Adam Moussa, a Sudanese refugee who is seeking refuge in Chad for a second time, waits with other refugees to receive a food portion from an international aid agency near the border between Sudan and Chad in Koufroun, Chad, May 9, 2023.

REUTERS/Zohra Bensemra

Hard Numbers: Children starving in Sudan, Israel’s credit downgraded, Two tales of Chinese balloons, Chiefs win Super Bowl, Senate advances aid bill

2: Moody’s bond rating agency on Friday announced a first-ever downgrade of Israel's credit rating from A1 to A2, due to the negative economic impacts of the Gaza war and the potential conflict with Hezbollah. Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich dismissed it as “a political manifesto,” but if other major agencies follow suit, it would make it harder for Israel to sell bonds, impacting its war effort and post-war recovery.

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FILE PHOTO: Donald Trump dancing during the campaign rally for the Republican primary for the 2024 American presidential election. Manchester (NH), USA, January 20, 2024.

David Himbert / Hans Lucas via Reuters Connect

For China, Russia, and Israel, patience is a virtue in 2024

In January, Taiwan elected pro-independence candidate William Lai and, despite warnings, China’s response has been restrained, possibly influenced by Beijing’s belief that the leading US presidential candidate may treat Taiwan like a “discarded chess piece.”

That’s what Chinese Taiwan Affairs Office spokesperson Chen Binhua said would happen if Donald Trump won the US election in November after the former president refused to say whether he would defend Taiwan. His comments shook US ally Japan strongly enough that senior Kishida administration officials are reportedly contacting Trump’s camp to warn against cutting any kind of deal with China.

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William Lai (Lai Ching-Te), the candidate of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), has just been elected President of the Republic of Taiwan, succeeding outgoing President Tsai Ing-Wen. They celebrate the victory on stage at their party headquarters, with his running mate Hsiao Bi-Khim.

Jimmy Beunardeau / Hans Lucas via Reuters

Lai won in Taiwan, but Xi isn’t losing his cool

Taiwan may have elected pro-independence candidate William Lai as its next president, but the result wasn’t the worst news Beijing expected.While Lai secured a decisive win with a seven percentage point lead over his next nearest rival, his party did not fare as well. Dissatisfaction with rising house prices, stagnant wages, and shrinking job opportunities lost the party favor with young voters. Lai’s Democratic Progressive Party, or DPP, failed to get a majority of seats in the legislature. Final results gave the Kuomintang 52 seats, the DPP 51, the Taiwan People’s Party 8, and independents 2.

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Taiwan's Vice President Lai Ching-te, who heads the ruling Democratic Progressive Party, raises his fist after winning the presidential election in Taipei on Jan. 13, 2024.

Kyodo via Reuters

Taiwan elects pro-independence candidate, calls Beijing’s bluff

Taiwan, one of the freest democracies in Asia, went to the polls on Saturday for a highly anticipated election with implications for both cross-strait and US-China relations.

As we told you last week, Taiwan’s presidential campaign ended up being a close race between independence-leaning candidate William Lai Ching-te of the ruling Democratic Progressive Party, or DPP, and Hou You-ih of the Kuomintang, aka KMT, who favors closer relations with China.

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Supporters of Lai Ching-te, Taiwan's vice president and the ruling Democratic Progressive Party's presidential candidate attend, a campaign event in New Taipei City, Taiwan, on Jan. 6, 2024.

REUTERS/Ann Wang

Taiwan holds first big election of 2024

The world will be watching when Taiwanese voters head to the polls on Jan. 13 to choose their next president. The first in a series of elections with global ramifications in 2024, Taiwan’s vote will be a flashpoint in the tense US-China relationship. China regards Taiwan as a breakaway territory and has vowed to unify with it, by force if necessary. Taiwan has the backing of the US, which would feel pressured to come to the island’s defense in the event of a conflict with China.

The election is shaping up into a close contest between the independence-leaning candidate William Lai Ching-te of the ruling Democratic Progressive Party, or DPP, and Hou You-ih of the Kuomintang, aka KMT, who favors closer relations with China.

We asked Eurasia Group expert Ava Shen what to watch for.

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Trump's immunity claim: US democracy in crisis
TITLE PLACEHOLDER | Ian Bremmer | World In :60

Trump's immunity claim: US democracy in crisis

Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week on World In :60.

First , how will the appeals court decision on Trump's presidential immunity claim play into your Top Risk of 2024?

Well, the top risk is the US election, the US versus itself. What we see is that Trump is having more time to campaign before decisions are made, potential convictions are made while the primaries are playing out. In other words, he's likely to get the nomination before he's going to be convicted of anything. And what that means is, he'll have all the Republicans behind him. And at that point, if he gets convicted, it's kind of too late because the people that are going to vote for him are on the other side. So, yeah, this is increasingly a democracy in crisis. That's what we're looking at in the United States in 2024.

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General view of street in Taipei, Taiwan, ahead of the presidential election in Taipei City, Taiwan January 3, 2024.

Sunny Mok/EYEPRESS/REUTERS

Strange objects over Taiwan

Look, up in the sky, is it a gender reveal gone wrong? An attention-seeking stunt to bring Balloon Boy into the 2020s? Your favorite geopolitics meme of 2023 is flying high again in the new year: Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense reported four Chinese spy balloons hovering over strategic targets on the self-governing island in recent days, including an air force base.

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COP28 climate talks complicated by UAE oil deals
COP28: Oil-rich UAE and the dilemma of hosting a global climate summit | World In: 60 | GZERO Media

COP28 climate talks complicated by UAE oil deals

Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week on World In :60.

Will the UAE’s pursuit of oil deals during COP28 undermine the summit's climate goals?

Well, it certainly doesn't make it any easier. I mean, this is the time when the world comes together and tries to reduce the level of carbon in the atmosphere, and the fact that it's being hosted by one of the world's largest oil producers and by the chairman, the CEO of one of the world's largest oil companies, who also is driving his country's sustainability goals. Well, I mean, I guess you can say he's hedged. You can definitely say that but you can also say it's challenging and problematic. Look, there was a chance that COP was going to fall apart completely and you were just going to have fragmented bilateral deals. The Chinese, for example, get much more influence giving out money directly in return for things with countries than being a part of a multilateral group. Having said that, US and China recently have come together on climate in advance, specifically of COP28, and there is more movement on methane emissions from the two largest emitters in the world. There's more movement on carbon capture and storage than we've seen before. Look, I'm glad the meetings happened. It is happening. It's going to be more successful than it not showing up. But there are big challenges and you're going to hear those frustrations loudly from the developing world who are taking climate on the chin.

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