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Reservists receive training during the annual Han Kuang military exercises in Taoyuan, Taiwan July 9, 2025.

REUTERS

Hard Numbers: Beijing calls Taiwan’s “bluff”, Copper prices soar, Russia breaks drone attack record (again), wildfire threatens France’s second city

22,000: Taiwan has mobilised 22,000 reservists to carry out its largest-ever military drills this week, with surface-to-air missiles and US-supplied High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems as part of the maneuvers. When asked about the drills on Tuesday, the foreign ministry in Beijing – which considers self-governing Taiwan a part of China – called the exercises “nothing but a bluff.”

50%: US copper prices surged after President Donald Trump threatened on Tuesday to impose 50% tariffs on the metal. Copper is essential for home construction, car manufacturing, energy infrastructure, and data centers.

728: Russia launched a record 728 drones at Ukraine overnight, marking the third time in the last two weeks that Moscow has outdone itself. Last night’s attack came after Trump resumed shipments of critical air-defense weapons to Ukraine and declared he was tired of Putin’s “bullsh*t” on Tuesday.

400: A massive wildfire has reached the outskirts of Marseille, France’s second-largest city, prompting the evacuation of at least 400 people and injuring nine firefighters. At its peak, the fire spread at 1.2 kilometers per minute, driven by strong winds, dense vegetation, and steep terrain. Over 1,000 firefighters have been deployed to battle the blaze, which continues to threaten the area.

Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk reacts after a vote of confidence for his center-left coalition government, in Warsaw, Poland, June 11, 2025.

REUTERS/Kacper Pempel

Hard Numbers: Polish PM’s gamble pays off, UK sanctions Israeli government ministers, Taiwan indicts Chinese “spies”, and more

33: Poland’s Prime Minister Donald Tusk survived a no-confidence measure on Wednesday by a margin of 33 votes in the 460 seat legislature. Tusk had called the vote himself in a bid to reinforce his mandate after an ally of his lost the presidential election to a rightwing challenger late last month.  

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- YouTube

Can Taiwan defend itself from Chinese invasion?

Can Taiwan defend itself from a Chinese invasion? On GZERO World, Ian Bremmer sits down with Bonny Lin, director of the China Power Project at CSIS, to break down Beijing’s increasingly aggressive military maneuvers around the island and what it means for Taipei’s future. Since Taiwan’s pro-independence president William Lai took office in 2024, China has stepped up both the frequency and scale of its military operations, with daily air and naval incursions into Taiwan’s air defense zone.

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Taiwan's strategy for countering a Chinese invasion, with Bonny Lin of CSIS



On this week’s GZERO World Podcast, Ian Bremmer sits down with Bonny Lin, director of the China Power Project at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, for a look at one of the most dangerous flashpoints in the world: the Taiwan Strait. China has been conducting drills around Taiwan for years, but since the current pro-independence president, William Lai, took office in 2024, Beijing has been staging near-daily military exercises near the island–larger, louder, and more aggressive than ever before.

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- YouTube

How China would seize Taiwan without firing a shot

Chinese President Xi Jinping has made reunification with Taiwan a key pillar of his nationalist agenda. He’s ordered the People’s Liberation Army to be ready to seize Taiwan by 2027, and the PLA has been conducting near-daily military drills around the island–larger, louder, and more aggressive than ever before. On Ian Explains, Ian Bremmer breaks down how China could seize Taiwan without firing a single shot.

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Leading Republican senators during their weekly briefing in the US Capitol in Washington, D.C., USA, on May 20, 2025.

Douglas Christian/ZUMA Press Wire

What We’re Watching: “Big Beautiful” bill heads for the Senate, UK gives up Chagos Islands, Taiwan pivots to drones

House passes Trump’s tax agenda, but senators will now have their say

By a margin of just one vote, the US House early on Thursday passed a budget bill containing President Donald Trump’s tax agenda, which centers on making his 2017 tax cuts permanent. Some last-minute changes to the bill helped to get it over the line: House Republicans increased the SALT-cap to $40,000 and accelerated the introduction of work requirements for Medicaid. But can the GOP get the bill through the US Senate? Lawmakers in the upper chamber are already plotting changes to the legislation...

You can Chagos your own way: UK hands islands back to Mauritius, leases back base

More than two centuries after taking the Chagos Islands from France, the United Kingdom relinquished the Indian Ocean archipelago to Mauritius, but will continue to lease a US-UK military base there, on the island of Diego Garcia, for another 99 years. The UK says the deal, which creates a 24-mile buffer zone around the base, is meant to ensure its long-term security amid growing Chinese aggression in the area. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio welcomed the deal.

Taiwan adds new drone units as part of shifting military strategy

Ever wary of a potential Chinese invasion, Taiwan announced that it will introduce its first-ever drone units this year. The move is part of Taipei’s evolving strategy of effectively deterring Beijing rather than preparing for a direct fight. “Overall, the cross-strait military balance still tilts toward China’s favor, since China spends a lot more on defense,” says Eurasia Group regional expert Ava Shen. “So it’s more pragmatic for Taiwan to be a ‘porcupine,’ so to speak.”

An aerial photo shows the Kumamoto factory of Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., Ltd. (TSMC), the largest semiconductor contract manufacturer, in Kikuyo Town, Kumamoto Prefecture, Japan, on March 14, 2025.

The Yomiuri Shimbun

Trump prepares to slap tariffs on semiconductors and pharma

The topsy-turvy-tariff tale continued to swing this week, as the Trump administration advanced a plan on Monday that could result in new levies on semiconductors and pharmaceuticals. The news came days after US President Donald Trump announced that smartphones would be exempt from the 145% duty that he had slapped on China.

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A giant screen in Beijing shows news footage about the People's Liberation Army (PLA) joint army, navy, air and rocket forces drills around Taiwan on April 1, 2025.

REUTERS/Florence Lo

China conducts massive military drills around Taiwan.

China on Tuesday conducted one of the largest military drills to date in the waters and skies around Taiwan.

Beijing said the operation — in which dozens of aircraft and warships breached Taiwan’s de facto boundaries — was a dry run for “seizing comprehensive control” of the self-governing island.

The backstory: The island has ruled itself for decades, but Beijing views it as part of China, and President Xi Jinping has promised to reintegrate it — by force if need be. The US nominally recognizes China’s claims but, in practice, provides substantial security support to the island.

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