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South Korean President Lee Jae Myung and his wife, Kim Hye Kyung, are pictured at Tokyo's Haneda airport on Aug. 24, 2025, before flying to Washington, D.C., USA.
What We’re Watching: South Korea’s Lee to meet Trump, Israel offers withdrawal for Hezbollah disarmament, Maryland man now headed to Uganda
Lee-Trump meeting to center on China
South Korean President Lee Jae-Myung visits Washington, D.C., with plenty on his agenda as he meets US President Donald Trump. Top of the list will be China. Unlike his predecessors, Lee wants to boost ties with Beijing – he even said Seoul should stay out of any China-Taiwan conflict. Meanwhile Trump wants South Korea to bolster its forces so that the American troops stationed there can focus on containing China rather than helping defend the locals from North Korea – this, unsurprisingly, worries Seoul. Trump’s post this morning about there being a “Purge or Revolution” in South Korea won’t help, either. Lee’s charm offensive has already begun, with the use of Trump’s (likely) favorite attire: a red hat.
Israel offers the carrot and the stick in bid for Hezbollah disarmament
Israel said it would cut back its forces in southern Lebanon if Beirut took steps to force the militant group Hezbollah to disarm. The announcement comes after the Lebanese cabinet approved plans earlier this month aimed at disarming the weakened, Iran-backed militant group. The flipside of Israel’s pledge appears to be some sort of continued military presence in southern Lebanon: IDF troops and Hezbollah were both supposed to exit the area two months after signing a ceasefire deal in November, but the Israelis stayed after the militant fighters remained active in the area. Whatever the approach, disarming Hezbollah will be easier said than done.
Kilmar Ábrego García to be deported to Uganda
The United States is set to deport Kilmar Ábrego García – a Salvadoran man who resides in Maryland – to Uganda. It comes after Uganda joined the growing ranks of African countries, including South Sudan and Eswatini, that have agreed to receive US deportees from other countries. The small nation of Eswatini faces a court challenge after accepting five deported men, sparking outrage over human rights violations and overcrowded prisons. As such arrangements expand, Africa risks becoming a receiving zone for migrants — and the unresolved legal issues that come along with such transfers.FFM Mogami at the Yokosuka Naval Base on April 8, 2025.
Hard Numbers: Japan wins huge Oz carrier contract, Migrant boat sinks off Yemen, US to require bonds from visa-seekers, Taiwan arrests chip snoops
$6.5 billion: Japan won a $6.5 billion defense contract to build 11 new warships for Australia’s navy on Tuesday. The deal comes as Australia undertakes a major defense overhaul in order to counter China’s expanding presence in the Indo-Pacific.
68: At least 68 African migrants have died after a boat capsized off the coast of Yemen on Sunday. Yemen is a major transit route for migrants from the Horn of Africa – which includes Ethiopia, Somalia, Djibouti, and Eritrea – who go to the Gulf monarchies in search of work. The overall death toll is feared to be greater than 140.
15,000: The US is planning to require some visa applicants to pay bonds of up to $15,000, as President Donald Trump continues his crackdown on immigration. The State Department said the measure will target countries whose citizens overstay their visas most often: looking at you, Colombia, Mexico, Canada, Haiti, Venezuela, and Spain.
6: Taiwanese authorities have arrested six people suspected of stealing trade secrets from TSMC, the world’s most advanced semiconductor manufacturer. While their nationalities haven’t been made public yet, China’s Huawei and Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp (SMIC) and the US’s Intel trail far behind TSMC, which supplies chips to Nvidia and Apple.A demonstrator burns mock dollar bills with the face of US President Donald Trump during a protest against the US tariffs imposed on Brazilian products, in front of the United States Embassy in Brasilia, Brazil, on August 1, 2025.
What We’re Watching: Another US tariff announcement, El Salvador leader can now rule indefinitely, Indonesian president pardons opponents
US hits the world with fresh wave of tariffs
US President Donald Trump slapped new tariffs on 92 countries, including key allies. Canada, the US’s number two trade partner, was hit with a 35% rate. Taiwan, a critical semiconductor supplier, also faces fresh levies that could ripple through global tech supply chains, and India now faces a 25% rate. For some countries, Trump’s latest threats are actually a reprieve, as he lowered previously threatened rates: tiny Lesotho, which Trump once said “nobody has ever heard of,” will now face a 15% duty, down from 50%. The new levies take effect on Aug. 9, but Mexico, the US’s largest trade partner, won a 90-day extension. Trump reached a deal with the EU earlier this week, and is still negotiating with China.
El Salvador’s Bukele can now stay in power forever
El Salvador’s legislature has voted to scrap presidential term limits, clearing the way for President Nayib Bukele to run for a third term, and potentially to stay in power indefinitely. Bukele – who once called himself the “world’s coolest dictator” – remains wildly popular after jailing thousands in a gang crackdown, but critics warn he’s dismantling a fragile democracy. Analysts say that the move may have spurred backlash from the US under previous administrations, but that Bukele is emboldened because of his close relationship with Trump.
Indonesia’s president pardons pair of political opponents
Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto granted clemency on Thursday to two opposition figures who were recently convicted of corruption. He framed the move as a bid to increase national unity ahead of the country’s 80th anniversary later this month, but critics say it undermines the justice system. Some observers have also suggested it may signal a rift between Prabowo and his predecessor, two-term president Joko Widodo, a one-time rival who backed Prabowo in last year’s election and remains hugely influential.Taiwan President Lai Ching-te attends the coast guard annual drill in Kaohsiung, Taiwan, June 8, 2025.
What We’re Watching: Taiwan’s president latest setback, Angolan fuel protests turn violent, Trump launches Sudan peace effort
Trump blocks Taiwan’s president from traveling through New York
US President Donald Trump blocked Taiwan’s president from stopping over in New York on a trip to Central America. The move, which comes right as US and Chinese officials are discussing a trade deal again, is seen as a concession to Beijing, which famously does not recognize Taiwan’s independence and objects to Taiwanese officials visiting the US, who have traditionally used US transits to bolster unofficial ties. Does this mean Washington’s decades-long military and diplomatic support for Taiwan could be in play as Trump negotiates with China?
Angolan fuel protests turn violent
A three-day long strike by taxi drivers angry about a 33% diesel price hike has turned into a violent demonstration involving thousands in the capital Luanda. Four people have been killed and hundreds arrested amid rioting, looting, and the destruction of cars. The effect of the fuel price hike extends well beyond the gas tank, as it has pushed up prices for food and other essentials as well, exacerbating existing food insecurities in the sub-Saharan African nation.
Trump launches new Sudan peace process – with a twist
The Trump administration is launching a new effort to end Sudan’s civil war between the Sudan Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), a conflict that has killed tens of thousands and displaced 13 million over the last two-plus years. Rather than meeting with those two groups directly, Trump is flipping the script and starting with their respective regional backers, the UAE (which supports RSF) and Egypt and Saudi Arabia (which back SAF). Can Trump’s Gulf connections and transactional style work where others have failed? Read Ian Bremmer’s take on that here.
Supporters of the recall movement gather in Taipei, Taiwan July 19, 2025.
Total Recall: Taiwan attempts a do-over of last year’s elections
This Saturday, Taiwan will try to do something that no democracy has ever done: a mass recall of lawmakers who serve in the national legislature.
Around one-third of the island’s voters will head to the polls in what local media outlets are dubbing “The Great Recall” – an effort to remove 31 of the country’s 113-seat legislature.
“It is unprecedented in Taiwan’s history,” says David Sacks, Asia Studies Fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations. “We haven't seen a similar recall effort in any democracy in the world.”
What’s more, the outcome will determine which party controls Taiwan’s legislature. The fate of 24 lawmakers – all from the country’s main opposition party, the Kuomintang (KMT) – will be decided on Saturday, with another 7 recall votes scheduled to take place later in August.
So, what are the recall elections about? Last year, William Lai won the presidency, but his Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) lost its parliamentary majority to a coalition led by the KMT, a long-time rival. Since then, frictions between the legislature and the presidency have been high, with the opposition blocking Lai’s legislative agenda – including key spending on defense and foreign affairs – while also seeking to expand the power of the legislature itself.
The DPP is betting that the recalls, initially launched by a group of civil society activists, will help break the political gridlock and allow them to retake their majority in the legislature.
“The DPP hopes that they can shift the balance of power in the legislature in their direction,” says Bonnie Glaser, director of the German Marshall Fund’s Indo-Pacific program. “If a president has control of the legislature or the parliament, then they have a much stronger ability to get their own agendas funded.”
What’s China’s role in all of this? A key question in the recall votes is where lawmakers stand toward Beijing, which views self-governing Taiwan as part of China. The KMT is open to eventual reunification with the mainland, while the DPP is fiercely opposed.
So while the DPP frames the mass recalls as a move to protect Taiwan’s national security from “pro-CCP” KMT lawmakers, the KMT says the DPP is undermining democratic institutions by trying to relitigate an election it already lost.
How likely are the recalls to succeed? The DPP needs to flip just 6 of the KMT’s seats to regain its legislative majority. But it’s not a slam dunk: to successfully unseat a lawmaker, turnout in their district must exceed 50%, with a majority voting in favor of a recall.
And even if Saturday’s recall elections do succeed, the affected districts will then head to by-elections, where DPP candidates must face off against new KMT challengers.
“Many of these people who are being recalled come from districts that are very heavily pro-[KMT],” says Glaser. “So it is more likely, in most of these districts where the KMT is recalled, that simply another KMT legislator will be voted in a by-election in the fall.”
What effect will the recalls have on Taiwan’s domestic politics? If they succeed, it will make it easier for Lai to push ahead with his agenda, although at the cost of potentially inflaming already deep partisan divides.
“Taiwan has very fractious political dynamics,” Sacks warns. “We've seen brawls in the legislature. We've seen pig and cow parts thrown at legislators.” (Yes, you can watch that here.)
If the recalls fail, however, it could at least in the short term force the DPP to change tactics.
“If this gambit doesn’t work, [the DPP] may come to terms with the fact that it’s just going to have to face a divided legislature in order to get things done,” says Glaser. “[And] they’re going to have to engage more with the opposition.”
But other experts warn that the recalls could open a pandora’s box.
“This episode shows that recalls are now part of Taiwanese political culture,” says Ava Shen, Eurasia Group’s regional expert, “and they will emerge again when the conditions align.”
Graphic Truth: China ramps up military activity near Taiwan
Chinese incursions into Taiwan’s Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) have skyrocketed since Taiwanese President William Lai assumed office last year. Lai, who campaigned on a tougher stance toward China, has been an outspoken critic of Beijing: his inauguration speech referenced the word “sovereignty” seven times. Beijing considers self-governing Taiwan part of its territory, and Chinese president Xi Jinping has said “reunification” is inevitable. For more on this, click here for Ian Bremmer’s discussion with Bonny Lin, director of the China Power Project at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
Reservists receive training during the annual Han Kuang military exercises in Taoyuan, Taiwan July 9, 2025.
Hard Numbers: Beijing calls Taiwan’s “bluff”, Copper prices soar, Russia breaks drone attack record (again), wildfire threatens France’s second city
22,000: Taiwan has mobilised 22,000 reservists to carry out its largest-ever military drills this week, with surface-to-air missiles and US-supplied High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems as part of the maneuvers. When asked about the drills on Tuesday, the foreign ministry in Beijing – which considers self-governing Taiwan a part of China – called the exercises “nothing but a bluff.”
50%: US copper prices surged after President Donald Trump threatened on Tuesday to impose 50% tariffs on the metal. Copper is essential for home construction, car manufacturing, energy infrastructure, and data centers.
728: Russia launched a record 728 drones at Ukraine overnight, marking the third time in the last two weeks that Moscow has outdone itself. Last night’s attack came after Trump resumed shipments of critical air-defense weapons to Ukraine and declared he was tired of Putin’s “bullsh*t” on Tuesday.
400: A massive wildfire has reached the outskirts of Marseille, France’s second-largest city, prompting the evacuation of at least 400 people and injuring nine firefighters. At its peak, the fire spread at 1.2 kilometers per minute, driven by strong winds, dense vegetation, and steep terrain. Over 1,000 firefighters have been deployed to battle the blaze, which continues to threaten the area.
Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk reacts after a vote of confidence for his center-left coalition government, in Warsaw, Poland, June 11, 2025.
Hard Numbers: Polish PM’s gamble pays off, UK sanctions Israeli government ministers, Taiwan indicts Chinese “spies”, and more
33: Poland’s Prime Minister Donald Tusk survived a no-confidence measure on Wednesday by a margin of 33 votes in the 460 seat legislature. Tusk had called the vote himself in a bid to reinforce his mandate after an ally of his lost the presidential election to a rightwing challenger late last month.
4: Taiwanese prosecutors indicted four former members of the ruling Democratic Progressive Party over allegations of spying for China. One of the alleged suspects worked as an assistant to former Foreign Minister Joseph Wu, who is now the secretary-general of Taiwan’s National Security Council.
0.1%: The US’ annual inflation index rose by 0.1 points from 2.3% last month—an early indication that Trump’s tariffs are having only a modest impact on consumer prices so far.
5: Five western countries – Australia, Canada, New Zealand, Norway, and the UK – imposed sanctions on two of Israel’s far-right ministers on Tuesday, accusing Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich of “inciting extremist violence” in the West Bank and denying essential aid to Palestinians in Gaza. Israel’s foreign minister Gideon Saar pledged a response to the “outrageous” move.
40%: US National Institutes of Health Director Dr. Jay Bhattacharya defended his agency during a Senate hearing on Tuesday after the Trump administration proposed a 40% budget cut to it. Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME) slammed the proposed cuts, which would lower the NIH’s total budget to $27.5 billion for the next fiscal year.
1,200: Russia and Ukraine began a major prisoner swap earlier this week, with each side expected to hand over at least 1,200 prisoners. However, prospects for a ceasefire remain distant: Kyiv and Moscow have exchanged ferocious aerial assaults in recent days.