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Houthis cause havoc in the Red Sea
Houthi rebels in Yemen took aim at a US-owned commercial ship, on Monday, launching a cruise missile at the Gibraltar Eagle in the Red Sea’s Gulf of Aden. The vessel, property of Eagle Bulk Shipping of Connecticut and flagged in the Marshall Islands, was carrying steel products. It suffered limited damage but no injuries and has now left the area.
This was just the latest salvo from the Yemen-based rebels, who on Sunday lobbed an anti-ship missile at the American destroyer USS Laboon. The strikes come in response to the US and UK bombing of over a dozen Houthi sites in Yemen last Thursday with warship- and submarine-launched Tomahawk missiles and fighter jets.
That operation put British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak in the hot seat for failing to consult Parliament beforehand. Sunak said it had been “necessary to strike at speed ... to protect the security of these operations.” The Houthis had targeted the Royal Navy’s destroyer HMS Diamond, and while Sunak emphasized the strikes were a one-off, he did not rule out future engagement if British interests were again threatened. While supportive of Sunak’s decision, opposition politicians demanded transparency for any further military interventions.
In contrast to Israel’s campaign in Gaza, where it is on the ground alone, US efforts in the Red Sea have attracted the support of over 20 nations. Why the difference in the response? First, unlike in the densely populated territory of Gaza, strikes in the Red Sea and Yemen present little to no risk to civilian populations. But perhaps more importantly, while the Houthis may claim their actions are aimed at stopping Israel’s war with Hamas, most observers agree the rebels are advancing their own aims by disrupting global trade. They have carried out 27 attacks since Nov. 19.
“Operation Prosperity Guardian” seeks to safeguard the 12% of the world's shipping that passes through the Red Sea each year and is estimated to be worth one trillion dollars.
US and UK hit Houthi targets in Yemen
The US and UK launched strikes against military facilities in Houthi-controlled Yemen on Thursday in response to the rebel group’s attacks on commercial vessels in the Red Sea. The Houthis, who have carried out at least 27 attacks since November, since November, claim to be acting on behalf of Palestinians in response to Israel’s war against Hamas.
The Biden administration had warned of severe consequences if the Houthis did not halt the attacks. Thursday’s strikes, the first by the US against the Houthis in Yemen since 2016, hit more than a dozen sites used by the Iran-backed militants in the capital Sanaa, the port of Hodeidah, Dhamar, as well as Saada in the northwest. The Houthis said 73 strikes killed five people.
“Today, at my direction, US military forces – together with the United Kingdom and with support from Australia, Bahrain, Canada, and the Netherlands – successfully conducted strikes against a number of targets in Yemen used by Houthi rebels to endanger freedom of navigation in one of the world’s most vital waterways,” President Joe Biden said in a statement.
The move represents “a substantial increase in the severity of Western response,” says Clayton Allen, Eurasia Group’s US director, “but will not likely have eliminated all, or even most, of the Houthis’ capabilities.”
Some analysts have pointed to Washington’s track record in the region, noting that strikes against the Houthis in 2016 for their attacks on US military vessels forced the militants to stand down. But some fear that Thursday’s strikes, which come amid US efforts to prevent a wider regional war in the Middle East, could also have the opposite effect.
“The strikes could serve to increase the risk of escalation, and it is unlikely that this was the final round of deterrent actions by the US and allies,” Allen adds.
The war in Gaza has turned the Middle East into a powder keg
The risks of a regional war in the Middle East are rising, as a number of different actors with competing interests and historic rivalries become increasingly entangled amid the war in Gaza.
In the past week alone, President Joe Biden ordered strikes against an Iran-backed militia after several US troops were wounded in an attack in Iraq, the US shot down drones and missiles in the Red Sea launched by the Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen, Iran accused Israel of killing a top general in Syria and vowed revenge, and Israel and Hezbollah continued trading fire – prompting Israeli officials to raise the possibility of invading Lebanon.
“We are now at a fork in the road: Either Hezbollah backs off from the Israeli border, in line with UN Resolution 1701, or we will push it away ourselves,” Eylon Levy, an Israeli government spokesperson, said Wednesday.
All of this is part of an escalating tit-for-tat between Iranian proxies, the US, and Israel that is intrinsically linked to the war in Gaza. Iran-backed militias have targeted US troops dozens of times since Oct. 7, while the Houthis have carried out a string of attacks on commercial vessels in the Red Sea. Iran’s proxies have been clear that their recent attacks on US forces, Israel, and other entities in the region are a direct response to the war in Gaza.
Meanwhile, there’s currently little hope for a halt in the fighting in Gaza, even a temporary one, despite global calls for a cease-fire as the death toll rises and the humanitarian crisis in the territory worsens. Egypt in recent days put forward an ambitious peace proposal, but neither Hamas nor Israel appear eager to embrace a lasting truce. Hamas is unwilling to give up control of Gaza and Israel is determined to destroy the militant group. Beyond Gaza, settler violence is increasing in the occupied West Bank.
Experts on the region warn that the worsening situation is a recipe for disaster.
It’s still “hard to predict when these tensions will get out of control and the region is plunged into an abyss,” Randa Slim, senior fellow and director of conflict resolution at the Middle East Institute, tweeted on Tuesday.
“At some point, one of the many parties that are involved in this conflict will miscalculate,” says Slim.
American sailors arrest Houthi militants
Lost in the good news over a two-day extension of the humanitarian cease-fire in Gaza and the promised release of more captured civilians, is an event that could signal the rising risk of a broader Middle East war. On Sunday, a US warship captured five armed Houthi militants attempting to flee an Israeli-linked tanker they had briefly seized off the coast of Yemen. This is just the latest belligerent exchange between US forces and militants aligned with Iran. As in other cases, two missiles fired at the US ship from Houthi-controlled territory in Yemen looked more like a fist-shake than a serious attempt to hurt anyone.
But these incidents are likely to escalate as the Qatari-brokered cease-fire between Israel and Hamas ends in the coming days and the fighting intensifies sharply in southern Gaza. There is no evidence that Houthis and other Iranian proxies are following direct orders from Tehran, even if they share Iran’s view of the war. But if militants begin acting more aggressively on their own initiative, the risk of a deadly encounter that escalates the violence beyond Gaza will grow.
Iran thrives on Arab "misery," says expert Karim Sadjadpour
Whether it's Hamas in Gaza or Hezbollah in Lebanon or the Houthis in Yemen, how much control does Iran have over its proxy forces? According to Iran expert at the Carnegie Endowment for Peace, Karim Sadjadpour, Iran tends not to micromanage these groups. Iran may not typically give direct, day-to-day instructions but instead defer to these leaders to make their own decisions. However, Sadjadpour adds, on a broader level, Iran wields significant influence as they are often the primary source of funding and military support for these groups.
More importantly, when it comes to the people under the control of these proxy forces, whether they be Palestinian, Iraqi, Syrian, Yemeni or Lebanese, Iran doesn't care about their wellbeing. Sadjadpour emphasizes that we must distinguish between Iran being anti-Israel and genuinely pro-Palestinian, for instance. He recalls a conversation with an Iranian official who suggested that Iran benefits from the instability and conflict in the region, as it furthers their interests.
"Iran really benefits from the misery of these populations and these failing states, and they don't want to see these populations become prosperous" Sadjadpour tells Ian Bremmer in the latest episode of GZERO World. " And so in some ways, the more these populations experience conflict, whether it's, you know, conflict amongst themselves or direct conflict with Israel, Iran has tended to benefit from the despair of these Arab populations."
Watch the full interview: What’s Iran’s next move?
Catch GZERO World with Ian Bremmer every week at gzeromedia.com/gzeroworld or on US public television. Check local listings.
- What we know (and don't know) about Iran's role in the Israel-Hamas war ›
- US braces for Iran-backed blowback ›
- Fight between US and Iran’s proxies reaches boiling point ›
- Podcast: Iran's role in the Gaza war: is escalation inevitable? ›
- What’s Iran’s next move? ›
- US-Iran tensions complicate Biden's Middle East strategy - GZERO Media ›
Israel's war in Gaza has emboldened Iran, says Karim Sadjadpour
Since the 1979 Islamic Revolution, Iran's stance towards Israel and its Western allies has been nothing if not consistent, says Iran expert Karim Sadjadpour. In an extensive interview with Ian Bremmer for GZERO World, Sadjadpour emphasizes that Iran has consistently invested substantial resources in supporting militant groups like Hamas, Islamic Jihad, and Hezbollah in an effort to undermine Israel. It's a continuation of Iran's long-term strategy to challenge the existence of Israel.
"Iran wants to defeat the US-led world order, evict the United States from the Middle East, and replace Israel with Palestine. There's perhaps been no government with a more consistent and enduring grand strategy than the Islamic Republic of Iran."
Israel's war with Gaza has only emboldened Iran, Sadjadpour argues. But it's not yet clear whether Iran will be so emboldened as to engage in an overt conflict with Israel or the United States.
Watch the full interview: What’s Iran’s next move?
Catch GZERO World with Ian Bremmer every week at gzeromedia.com/gzeroworld or on US public television. Check local listings.
What’s Iran’s next move?
Remember that famous line from Bill Clinton’s campaign staffer James Carville back in 1992?: “It’s the economy, stupid!” As Israel’s war with Hamas escalates, it brings to mind—in a nasally Louisiana accent—the phrase “It’s Iran, stupid.”
Because, whether it’s the dizzying arsenal of Hezbollah rockets in southern Lebanon pointed at Israel, or the Houthi drones targeting Israel from Yemen, or the Iranian Revolutionary Guard facilities in Eastern Syria-, one thing is clear: all roads lead back to the Ayatollah. And yet, there’s a big difference between skirmishes with proxy forces and an all-out US/Israel war with Iran.
"Iran feels particularly emboldened at the moment," says Iran expert Karim Sadjadpour, Senior Fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for Peace, who joins Ian Bremmer on GZERO World. "Whether it's going after Israel via proxies or going after the US via their proxies. And they may be difficult to deter because they may either correctly read the situation that the US is not interested in a conflict, or they may misread it. And that could lead us to more direct conflict with Iran."
So how close is Iran to waging war on Israel, and its Western allies? Iran is, after all, a rogue nation well on its way to developing a nuclear weapon. And that’s an escalation that no one, including Iranian leadership, wants to see happen.
Catch GZERO World with Ian Bremmer every week at gzeromedia.com/gzeroworld or on US public television. Check local listings.
- Israel at war: How will regional actors respond? ›
- Ian Explains: How Israel & Iran went from friends to enemies ›
- US braces for Iran-backed blowback ›
- What we know (and don't know) about Iran's role in the Israel-Hamas war ›
- The proxy war (still) raging in Yemen ›
- Israel's war in Gaza has emboldened Iran, says Karim Sadjadpour - GZERO Media ›
- Iran thrives on Arab "misery", says expert Karim Sadjadpour - GZERO Media ›
- Ian Explains: How Hezbollah became so powerful in Lebanon - GZERO Media ›
Podcast: Iran's role in the Gaza war: is escalation inevitable?
Listen: With all eyes on Israel’s escalating war with Hamas, what’s Iran’s next move?
Iran gets around. In Southern Lebanon, Iran-backed Hezbollah fighters have a missile arsenal that dwarfs Hamas’ rocket supply and could overwhelm Israel’s famed “Iron Dome” air defense. The Pentagon recently redirected the USS Eisenhower aircraft carrier and its strike group of destroyers to the Middle East instead of the eastern Mediterranean, ready to intercept missile and drone strikes by Iran-backed Houthi militias in Yemen aimed at Israel. Days later, American F-16 jets carried out airstrikes in Eastern Syria on facilities used by Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard and its proxies, in retaliation for a barrage of recent rocket and drone attacks against American forces in Iraq and Syria.
But there’s a big difference between skirmishes with Iran proxy forces and an all-out US-Israel-Iran war. So how close is Israel to all-out war with Iran...and how will Israel’s ongoing invasion of Gaza up the ante? What are the implications for Israel's Western allies? On the GZERO World podcast, Ian Bremmer asks Iran expert Karim Sadjadpour, Senior Fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for Peace.
Subscribe to the GZERO World Podcast on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, or your preferred podcast platform, to receive new episodes as soon as they're published.- US braces for Iran-backed blowback ›
- Ian Explains: How Israel & Iran went from friends to enemies ›
- Skirmishes with Hezbollah threaten escalation ›
- Ian Bremmer: Understanding the Israel-Hamas war ›
- Israel's war in Gaza has emboldened Iran, says Karim Sadjadpour - GZERO Media ›
- Iran thrives on Arab "misery", says expert Karim Sadjadpour - GZERO Media ›
- Podcast: The path to a two-state solution for Israel & Palestine: Former PM Ehud Barak's perspective - GZERO Media ›
- US-Iran tensions escalate after deadly drone attack - GZERO Media ›
- US-Iran tensions complicate Biden's Middle East strategy - GZERO Media ›