We have updated our Privacy Policy and Terms of Use for Eurasia Group and its affiliates, including GZERO Media, to clarify the types of data we collect, how we collect it, how we use data and with whom we share data. By using our website you consent to our Terms and Conditions and Privacy Policy, including the transfer of your personal data to the United States from your country of residence, and our use of cookies described in our Cookie Policy.
{{ subpage.title }}
A photo illustration of a smartphone displaying the NVIDIA Corporation stock price on the NASDAQ market, with an NVIDIA chip visible in the background.
A chip bottleneck
Margrethe Vestager, the European Union’s competition chief, has warned of a “huge bottleneck” involving Nvidia. The US semiconductor company plays a pivotal role in designing chips necessary for training and running artificial intelligence models and applications — good for 80% of the market. In recent months, Nvidia has become a $3.1 trillion company — now the third-most-valuable firm in the world behind only Microsoft and Apple.
It’s too much of a good thing: NVIDIA’s chips are so in demand that it can’t make enough for AI firms looking to train bigger and better models. EU regulators are starting to wonder whether that bottleneck raises concerns over fair competitive markets.
In Singapore, Vestager told Bloomberg that the EU’s watchdogs are asking preliminary questions of Nvidia but haven’t made up their mind about any further regulatory steps. Vestager said a robust secondary market could relieve competitive concerns, implying that as long as Nvidia respects smaller firms it should stay in antitrust regulators’ good graces. Meanwhile, AMD and Intel are looking to close the gap with Nvidia, something that intense regulatory scrutiny on the market leader might aid.
Apple wants its own chips
Apple is leveling up its chip ambitions. The Silicon Valley technology giant has spent years designing chips for its own hardware — for Macs, iPhones, iPads, and more. But, running AI models requires higher-grade chips like NVIDIA's graphics processors, which have become industry standard.
To keep up, and to fuel its own AI ambitions, Apple is working on its own chips, according to a report in the Wall Street Journal, designed to support AI applications from servers in large data centers. Internally, the project is code-named ACDC, short for Apple Chips in Data Center, though it has no set timeline for completion.
Apple's chips are reportedly meant for running AI applications, rather than training them, which makes sense given Apple's consumer focus. Apple has yielded the first leg of the AI race to upstarts like OpenAI and Anthropic, as well as to incumbents Microsoft and Meta, but the view from Cupertino is clearly better-late-than-never.
A student of National University of Malaysia walks past displays of the country's "Stripes of Glory" flags at its campus in Bangi outside Kuala Lumpur August 22, 2007.
Hard Numbers: Microsoft takes Malaysia, Massive (and unknown) startup, Safety first, Don’t automate my news
2.2 billion: Microsoft has its eye on Southeast Asia. The computing giant announced it’ll pour $2.2 billion into Malaysia’s cloud infrastructure over the next four years and will establish a national AI center with the government. This investment is the latest in a string of Microsoft infusions in local economies to help develop AI: In the past month, the company announced a $2.9 billion investment in Japan, $1.7 billion in Indonesia, and a new data center in Thailand, plus a $1.5 billion stake in the UAE firm G42.
19 billion: There’s a $19 billion AI startup that you’ve likely never heard of. It’s called CoreWeave, and it started as a small crypto company that stockpiled powerful graphics chips. Now, it runs data centers that are in high demand from AI companies that need to access those chips to run their models. It’s a company that has quickly “come out of nowhere,” as its cofounder said, to play a major role in the booming AI economy.
2: AI safety research comprises only 2% of total research about artificial intelligence, according to a new report from Georgetown University’s Emerging Technology Observatory. That’s dwarfed by global research into subjects such as computer vision (32%), robotics (15%), and natural language processing (11%).
42: In the run-up to the 2024 presidential election, 42% of Americans are concerned that news organizations will create stories with generative AI, according to a new poll from the Associated Press and the American Press Institute. While news organizations have been using AI to write simple stories — such as earnings-related stories and sport recaps — for years, those that have turned to generative AI in recent years to replace human-written stories have received public pushback and condemnation.
US Secretary of Commerce Gina Raimondo announces a major grant at the Samsung semiconductor plant in Taylor, Texas, on Monday, April 15, 2024.
Samsung hands Biden another chip win
The Biden administration is busy courting global semiconductor manufacturers to build stateside, recently handing billions to Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company to expand its chip fabrication plant in Phoenix, Arizona.
On Monday, Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo announced that the Biden administration is giving out another award as part of its CHIPS Act budget — this time to TSMC competitor Samsung, the South Korean electronics giant. Samsung will receive $6.4 billion to put toward its new manufacturing hub in Taylor, Texas, and expand its existing plant in Austin. In return, Samsung will pour $45 billion into its US projects and commit to producing cutting-edge two-nanometer chips.
Biden has made so-called silicon nationalism a tenet of his economic and national security-focused public policy, desperate to control the slow but crucial supply of chips used for everyday technologies as well as new artificial intelligence applications.
Google's Gemini home page displayed on a smartphone in a photo illustration.
Hard Numbers: Pay for Google?, Indonesian investment, Amazon walks out on AI, Scraping YouTube
175 billion: Google said it made $175 billion in revenue from its search engine and related advertising last year, but is it ready to risk the golden goose? The company is reportedly considering charging for premium features on its search engine, including AI-assisted search (its traditional search engine would remain free). We’ve previously tested Perplexity, one of the companies trying to uproot Google’s search dominance with artificial intelligence, and you can read our review here.
200 million: The chipmaker Nvidia is teaming up with Indonesian telecom company Indosat to build a $200 million data center for artificial intelligence in the city of Surakarta, according to Indonesia’s communications minister. This news comes weeks after AI played a central role in the country’s presidential election, and it represents a major investment from one of the world’s richest tech companies in a key emerging market as Indonesia seeks to modernize its economy.
1,000: Amazon’s Just Walk Out in-store AI system for cashier-less grocery store checkout relied heavily on more than 1,000 contractors in India manually checking that the checkout transactions were accurate. Now, Amazon has announced it’s ditching the technology, which was being used in 60 Amazon-branded grocery stores and two Whole Foods stores.
1 million: One OpenAI team reportedly transcribed more than 1 million hours of YouTube videos to train its GPT-4 large language model. The company built a speech recognition tool called Whisper to handle the massive load, a move that may have violated YouTube's terms of use. YouTube parent company Google is a major rival to OpenAI in developing generative AI. Google hasn’t filed suit yet, but legal action could eventually come.Sam Altman’s wish on a $7 trillion star
Sam Altman, CEO of OpenAI, needs more chips. He needs a lot more chips. The only thing stopping his $100 billion startup — if you can still call it a startup — may be the current supply of powerful chips.
The semiconductor fabrication process is notoriously slow and expensive, and the global supply chain runs through a few big, highly specialized firms. There are only a small number of companies that actually design chips made for generative AI — AMD, Intel, and Nvidia. And they’re pricy: Nvidia, which is set to take 85% of the market next year by one estimate, sells its H100 chips for about $40,000 a pop.
Naturally, Altman wants to make his own chips, but to make that dream a reality, he’s asking for an obscene amount of money.
How much does Altman want to raise?: According to the Wall Street Journal, Altman is deep in talks with investors with the goal of raising $5-7 trillion for a new chip venture.
“The dollar amount he’s reportedly trying to raise — $7 trillion — eclipses not just the semiconductor investments made by governments, including the United States’ $39 billion investment in chip manufacturing, but also the size of the entire semiconductor industry,” says Hanna Dohmen, a research analyst at Georgetown University's Center for Security and Emerging Technology. “It cannot be overstated how massive this sum of money is.”
Eurasia Group’s Director of Geotechnology Alexis Serfaty calls the sum “preposterously high and also seemingly arbitrary,” and says while it helps that OpenAI would be a built-in customer for this new chipmaker, the semiconductor industry is a difficult one with a propensity for demand gluts and supply chokepoints at every turn. Also, it would require strong leadership. “There are only so many people in the world with the expertise and experience to run an advanced fab, let alone the 300 [facilities] that $7 trillion would buy,” he adds.
Money can buy a lot — but it might not be able to solve the problems that every chipmaker already faces.
Who’s going to give him all that money? Altman has reportedly met with Masayoshi Son, CEO of the influential Japanese investment company SoftBank, and officials from Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, one of the world’s largest chip fabrication companies, about investing in his new venture. Altman reportedly wants to “raise the money from Middle East investors and have TSMC build and run” new chip fabrication plants.
But the real eyebrow-raising potential investor isn’t in East Asia; it’s in the Middle East. In recent weeks, Altman has reportedly met with Sheikh Tahnoun bin Zayed al Nahyan, the United Arab Emirates’ security chief, to discuss the venture. OpenAI already struck a deal in October with the Emirati technology company, G42, to bring AI solutions to the Middle Eastern market, laying the foundation for additional business support from the wealthy nation.
This is going to cause geopolitical headaches, right? Almost definitely. Washington is extremely touchy about foreign investment in US companies and even more hesitant when it comes to scarce critical infrastructure such as semiconductors.
“While the US government is eager to bring chip manufacturing to the United States, it would likely be reluctant to do so with the involvement of the UAE government given existing concerns about Emirati companies’ relations with Chinese counterparts,” says Dohmen, who notes that, under US law, companies need licenses to even export certain semiconductors to the UAE.
America’s number one concern is China. Not only has the Biden administration invested heavily in the US chip industry, but it has launched a no-holds-barred campaign to prevent China from getting its hands on chips or even cloud-based AI. Over the past few years, the Biden administration has exacted stringent export controls that seek to prevent any global semiconductor technology, if it’s made with US parts, to do business with China, who it fears will use AI to supercharge its military. Dohmen adds that lawmakers are worried that G42 is already “dealing with blacklisted Chinese firms.”
Simply put, Serfaty says, “Altman’s partnerships with foreign governments could conflict with this US national security strategy.”
Could the US take action against this new venture? Yes. The US government has taken the extraordinary step to block foreign investment in chip companies. In 2018, the Trump administration blocked the sale of the US-based Qualcomm to the then-Singapore-based Broadcom, citing national security concerns. (Broadcom has since moved its headquarters to the US). That administration also blocked the sale of Lattice Semiconductor to a US private equity firm funded by Chinese capital.
Altman could be inviting antitrust scrutiny, as well. If he controls both the country’s most important generative AI company and the chip supply chain it relies upon, he’ll raise eyebrows with any antitrust regime — even if it’s not the current tech-hungry one overseen by the FTC’s Lina Khan and the DOJ’s Jonathan Kanter. The government is already starting to look into Microsoft’s $13 billion investment in OpenAI.
In short, all eyes are on OpenAI. The ChatGPT maker and its once-embattled, now-emboldened chief have their sights set on global AI domination. Whether it’s $7 trillion or far less, they’re due to make a real attempt to solve the chip problem that appears to stand in the way of true unbridled success.
The Google AI logo is being displayed on a smartphone with Gemini in the background.
Hard Numbers: Bye-bye Bard, Arm’s up, Robots took my job, Super Bowl ad blitz
60: The British chip designer Arm Holdings is experiencing a market surge. The company’s stock saw a 60% increase after positive financial results and a rosy outlook. The company, which licenses its chip designs, attributes increased demand to the AI boom.
4,600: Artificial intelligence has already led to 4,600 layoffs in the US, according to the firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas. And that’s a conservative estimate. Unlike with robotics breakthroughs of yore, this wave of artificial intelligence seems laser-focused on displacing white-collar workers.
7 million: AI made its way into some of this year’s Super Bowl ads — 30-second commercials that sold for about $7 million. Etsy debuted its AI shopping assistant, Microsoft boasted its Copilot AI business tool, and Google highlighted how its Pixel 8 phone uses the technology to help blind people take photos.--FILE--A chip of Huawei is seen in Ji'nan city, east China's Shandong province, 20 April 2018.
China’s powered-up chips
Two Chinese firms are readying production of new 5-nanometer semiconductors, according to The Financial Times, putting China one step closer to technological parity with the US. SMIC will mass-produce the high-powered chips, designed by Huawei, in Shanghai, which can be used to power next-generation smartphones.
The report says that if the smartphone chip line runs smoothly, SMIC will turn next to making Huawei’s Ascend 920 graphics chips, which the Chinese chip designer hopes will rival high-end NVIDIA’s H100 chips.
The Biden administration has taken extensive steps to curb the influx of chips and chip-manufacturing technology into China. The US is especially concerned about China using AI to boost its military capabilities, which require the highest-powered chips, such as those built by AMD and NVIDIA.
That said, Xiaomeng Lu, Eurasia Group’s director for geo-technology, compared the 5nm chips to Huawei’s demonstration of a 5G phone last year.
“It shows signs of China making progress – and they will catch up in the long term – but in the grand scheme of things this is an incremental, not a groundbreaking step,” she said.