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President of the United States Joe Biden and Prime Minister of Canada Justin Trudeau during welcome ceremony of the NATO Summit in Washington DC, United States on July 10, 2024.
US escalates opposition to Canada’s digital services tax
Last April, Canada confirmed that it was going ahead with a digital services tax, retroactive to 2022, on big tech firms with annual revenues above CA$20 million. A tax had been in the works for years as a multilateral effort among OECD countries, but it’s been stalled time and time again by the US. In the face of US opposition, Canada decided to go it alone.
The Biden administration argues the 3% tax unilaterally pursued by Canada unfairly targets US companies. It has requested trade dispute consultations with Canada, calling the measure “discriminatory” and alleging it violates the country’s free trade agreement by treating Canadian firms differently than their American counterparts.
The dispute consultations could take months and, if not resolved within 75 days, could lead to a dispute settlement panel that will arbitrate the matter.
In response to the tax, Google has levied a 2.5% ad surcharge, effectively passing the tax along to Canadians firms that may pass the cost along to consumers.
The Canadian business lobby is warning that the tax could provoke a trade war with the US. But the Liberal government of Justin Trudeau is not backing down, reiterating that it will keep the tax that it promised back in 2020, setting up a showdown with the US and tech giants ahead of the 2025 Canadian general election.
Israelis push Netanyahu for cease-fire after Hamas kills hostages
Ian Bremmer's Quick Take: A Quick Take to kick off your week and the work year. I want to talk about the Middle East and big demonstrations, the largest social dissent we have seen since the October 7th terror attacks, since the war in Gaza has started in Israel. And the proximate reason for this was the Hamas execution of six Israeli hostages in Rafah, likely before those positions were overrun by Israeli Defense Forces. The broader point anger with the way that Prime Minister Netanyahu is continuing to prosecute the war.
And it's a big deal, it's a general strike of the largest labor union in Israel, just as everyone in Israel is coming back from vacation. And so large scale action and certainly has an impact on the economy. The anger in particular with demanding a cease-fire deal and demanding the release of the hostages who have been held now for almost a year.
This has not been seen to be an adequate priority of the Prime Minister by a majority of Israeli citizens. This is not because there are large numbers of Israelis that are in favor of a two-state solution. For the Palestinians, that's not the case. It's certainly not the case that there's any sympathy for Hamas or that the Israelis are angry that a lot of Palestinians have gotten killed. That is not the issue either. It is that they want an end of the fighting, they want the hostages back, and they want a deal done, and they're tired of the way this war has been prosecuted, especially because the Israeli defense minister, the head of the Shin Bet, other senior military officials have broken themselves with the Israeli Prime Minister and said that they do not support what the Israeli leadership is pushing for on the ground in Gaza.
There are other fights about an Israeli budget. There's the long-standing fight that was before October 7th on the independence of the Israeli judiciary itself, very strong in Israel. There's the question of enlistment and the exceptions for the Hasidim, for the far-right Israeli ultra-Orthodox, all of these things in a very divided, very fragmented Israeli political system are creating plenty of folks that are angry with the Prime Minister, but he is still there and there is no way in the near term to take him out.
Now, I don't think this labor union strike matters all that much. It was not on the basis of a labor dispute, it was a political action. And in that regard, the Israeli government took them to court. The courts ruled that they had to shut that action down. The Labor Union agreed and shut it down. There's a lot of Likud, Netanyahu's party, oriented political leaders among the labor union's leadership and so it is unlikely, I think that you're going to see a lot more of this over the coming weeks and months, but you could still see a lot more social instability, a lot more unrest. And now that you've had hundreds of thousands on the streets, which had not been occurring, while the war is on, you've kind of taken off this restriction on, well, as long as there's a war, we all need to be hanging together. We need to be supporting this Israeli war cabinet. The war cabinet's had resignations and society is back to its fractious and very loud and boisterous self in Israel.
Now, the Knesset is coming back in session, the Israeli Parliament in October, and as that happens, there's going to be a lot more fighting against Netanyahu's position, and you could possibly see a no-confidence vote to bring down his government. One of the reasons why we don't have a cease-fire is because Netanyahu understands that the way he stays in power is by keeping his coalition intact with the far right, and they strongly oppose and have consistently strongly opposed any agreement that would allow for long-term ending of fighting on the ground in Gaza. They also want continued control, some level of Israeli occupation over Gaza. They don't want self-governance of the Palestinians there. And again, we're not talking about Hamas, we're talking about any Palestinian organization.
That is, politically, you have to say that Netanyahu has done an extraordinary job in being able, a masterful job politically, in being able to maintain his position under such an extraordinary level of pressure. And with such unpopularity among the Israeli population. More broadly, there's the fact that the United States looks feckless on this issue. Biden has now come out and said that Netanyahu is not doing enough for a cease-fire. And Netanyahu's response was extremely strong, saying, publicly, both Biden and the Secretary of State and others have consistently and repeatedly said that the Israelis have accepted extremely generous terms for Hamas, it's Hamas that's refused and now Biden's saying that they're not doing enough, what's changed? Only that six hostages have been executed, and after that you're putting more pressure on Bibi. You can imagine that that makes Biden look extremely weak. And the issue here is that Biden has not been willing to be critical of Netanyahu publicly, he's only put a little bit of pressure on the Israeli leadership privately, and that makes him look weak publicly when Netanyahu makes those claims.
All of the efforts to try to get a cease-fire by the United States are going nowhere, in part because Hamas refuses the terms, and in part because the terms that the US says Netanyahu accepts he doesn't really accept when they are having private discussions. And so the US is trying to paper over a chasm between the two fighting sides. Everybody else wants to paper that over too. I mean, if you look at who wants a deal here, you would say the majority of the Israeli population, the Gulf States, the Egyptians, the Europeans, heck, the Chinese and the United States, but not Bibi's government and not Hamas.
And that's why we continue to have this level of fighting. That's also why we continue to have the Houthis attacking oil tankers, including a Saudi-flagged tanker, clearly by mistake, in the last 24 hours in the Red Sea. You've got American military, UK military, others in operation across the Gulf, and yet incapable of preventing this ragtag group of militants from Yemen to continue to disrupt global supply chain. You continue to have militants in the So-called Iranian-led Axis of Resistance attacking US and other allied targets across the region. And so it's very hard to see this war coming to an end. It's very hard to see Netanyahu leaving power in the near term. It's certainly hard to see any option for the Palestinians that would de-radicalize them in the near future.
Kamala Harris has been doing her best to say very little on this issue because of course, she is not in a good position to try to carry water for a policy that clearly has failed for the Biden administration heretofore. And that's specifically to end the fighting, to get the hostages freed, to create at least a temporary but hopefully longer-term cease-fire and to create a two-state solution. None of the things that the Biden administration has said that they want on the ground in the region are happening, and that means that Kamala has a lot of vulnerability on that policy. That's interesting because where she would clearly like to be would be in coordination with US allies. And one of the reasons why US policy on Ukraine has been much more successful in the Middle East is because it's been in lockstep with everyone in NATO, sometimes moving too slowly, but nonetheless, all these countries are agreeing on the sanctions, on the diplomatic efforts, on the military support for the Ukrainians, the training, the intelligence all being done together.
That's not true at all. You've got the new Labour government in the UK now saying that a number of weapons systems being provided to Israel would be likely used in the commission of war crimes by the IDF, and so the UK government has said that those specific weapons systems will no longer be provided to Israel. Now, most weapons systems will still be provided by the UK, so it's not like the reality of UK policy and US policy towards Israel are all that different. This is a fig leaf by the Brits, but the point is these countries are all freelancing. They're making policies by themselves, that makes it much easier for the Israelis to focus on the United States and to also take the actions they want to. If you had a more coordinated policy by the United States and all of their allies on Israel, it would be a strong policy and it would be a policy that would protect those countries politically to a much greater degree.
That's not where the US or NATO is right now. I do think that's something that Harris would want to accomplish if she were to become president come January, but we are still many months away from that possibility.
So anyway, a lot going on right now in the Middle East, certainly not working out in America's favor and not working out in the Israelis' or the Palestinians' either. That's it for me, and I'll talk to you all real soon.
U.S. President Joe Biden speaks to members of the press after a weekend in Delaware, on the South Lawn of the White House in Washington, U.S., February 19, 2024.
Judge blocks Biden policy for undocumented spouses
A Texas judge on Monday temporarily blocked the Biden administration from granting legal status to unauthorized immigrants married to American citizens following a challenge by 16 Republican-led states.
The policy allows unauthorized immigrants and their children to apply for temporary work permits and deportation protections if they are married to US citizens, have lived in the country for at least 10 years, and pass background checks.
The coalition of red states said the policy incentivizes illegal immigration, and the judge agreed the states raised legitimate questions about the authority of the executive branch to bypass Congress and set immigration policy.
One week after taking effect, the judge halted the program estimated to affect half a million immigrants living in the US without legal status, disrupting a major move taken by President Joe Biden in June on immigration, a top campaign issue in the 2024 race for president. The policy was popular among the 22 million people living in mixed-status households and was one of the most sweeping moves to give undocumented immigrants a path to citizenship since Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals was enacted in 2012 to protect immigrants who came to the United States as children.
Kamala Harris makes her case
Vice President Kamala Harris closed out a historic week at the Democratic National Convention in Chicago that rallied Democrats around themes of freedom, joy, and unity. Harris used the DNC to try to show US voters that she can unite all Americans behind a ‘new way forward,’ but did she succeed in making the case for a Harris-Walz ticket? On GZERO World, former Congresswoman Donna Edwards and presidential historian Douglas Brinkley joined Ian Bremmer to give their take on a truly unprecedented DNC that capped off one of the most extraordinary months in modern political history. Joe Biden and Democrats passed the baton to a new generation of political leaders, showcasing the talent and diversity within the Party. While the energy in the United Center was like nothing Dems have seen since Barack Obama led the ticket, Harris will be the first to point out that she is still very much the underdog in this election. And with polls showing the presidential race is essentially tied between the two parties, will any convention bump be too little too late to defeat Donald Trump?
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Kamala Harris' big moment — Rep. Donna Edwards and Douglas Brinkley weigh in on a historic week at the DNC
Listen: Vice President Kamala Harris accepted the Democratic nomination for president after a historic week at the Democratic National Convention in Chicago, which focused on messages of freedom, optimism, and unity. On this episode of the GZERO World Podcast, former Congresswoman Donna Edwards and presidential historian Douglas Brinkley join host Ian Bremmer to share their insights on a truly unprecedented DNC and history-making month in US political history. Harris pitched herself as a pragmatic leader who could unite all Americans behind a “new way forward,” but how successful was she in making her case for a Harris-Walz ticket? From powerful speeches on the convention floor to a dance party roll call, the four-day event showcased the talent, diversity, and optimism within the Party. As the dust settles, the challenge for Harris will be maintaining that enthusiasm all the way to Election Day. With the latest polls showing the presidential race is neck and neck between the two parties, the biggest question will be whether the DNC won over a crucial demographic: the undecided voter.
Subscribe to the GZERO World Podcast on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, or your preferred podcast platform, to receive new episodes as soon as they're published.Democratic presidential nominee and U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris applauds from the stage on Day 4 of the Democratic National Convention (DNC) at the United Center in Chicago, Illinois, U.S., August 22, 2024.
Harris lays out her vision for America: ‘Write the next great chapter’
Vice President Kamala Harris formally accepted the Democratic Party’s nomination for president at the Democratic National Convention in Chicago on Thursday, delivering a speech that was a calculated mixture of vibes and substance. She sought to balance bashing former President Donald Trump with laying out her vision for the future of the country.
"In many ways, Donald Trump is an unserious man. But the consequences of putting Donald Trump back in the White House are extremely serious," Harris said, in one of many comments taking aim at the former president.
Though she didn’t hold back in criticizing Trump – a trend among speakers throughout the convention – Harris also sought to assure voters that she would vie to end the divisiveness that has plagued the nation’s politics for years.
“I promise to be a president for all Americans. You can always trust me to put country above party and self,” Harris said.
Harris’ highly anticipated address came at the tailend of a week filled with appearances from party heavyweights like former President Barack Obama as well as celebrities like Oprah Winfrey. There was A LOT of starpower at the convention — and even a rumor that Beyoncé would show up on Thursday, which turned out to be false.
The convention began less than a month after President Joe Biden dropped out of the race. Though Harris has enjoyed significant momentum in the time since, she faced the tough task of proving that her campaign is the real deal and not a frantic, last-minute effort by the Dems to defeat Trump.
In her speech, Harris touched on issues ranging from border security and abortion to health care and the war in Gaza — a topic that led to protests in Chicago throughout the week, including on Thursday night. Though the city had been bracing for massive demonstrations with the potential to disrupt the convention, the protests never reached a scale that had a palpable impact on the week’s proceedings. Still, Harris addressed the issue head-on in her speech — and sought to touch on at least some of the concerns of the protesters out on the street.
“President Biden and I are working to end this war such that Israel is secure, the hostages are released, the suffering in Gaza ends, and the Palestinian people can realize their right to dignity, security, freedom and self-determination,” Harris said, which led to a massive round of applause in Chicago’s United Center.
She concluded her speech with a unifying call for Americans to “write the next great chapter in the most extraordinary story ever told,” saying that it’s “our turn to do what generations before us have done.”
“Guided by optimism and faith, to fight for this country we love, to fight for the ideals we cherish and to uphold the awesome responsibility that comes with the greatest privilege on Earth — the privilege and pride of being an American.”
“So, let’s get out there and let’s fight for it. Let’s get out there and let’s vote for it,” Harris added.
The convention was probably “pretty successful” for Democrats overall and they were able to target three key groups throughout it, including union members, Black voters, and Republican-leaning independents who don’t like Trump, says Jon Lieber, Eurasia Group’s managing director for the US. It played out well in the convention hall, Lieber added, but how “it plays out on TV and social media” is what really matters.
We’ll be watching to see if her messaging resonated with voters, particularly undecideds and those in crucial swing states.
Plus: Be sure to watch Jon Lieber recap the main takeaways from the DNC here.
- The Framing of Kamala Harris ›
- Oddsmakers make Kamala Harris the favorite ›
- Kamala Harris on foreign policy ›
- What Kamala Harris means for AI ›
- Obamas endorse Kamala Harris for president ›
- Will Kamala Harris’ momentum last in the race against Trump? ›
- Will the DNC momentum take Democrats all the way? - GZERO Media ›
- Kamala Harris makes her case - GZERO Media ›
U.S. President Joe Biden reacts as he attends the Democratic National Convention (DNC) in Chicago, Illinois, U.S. August 19, 2024.
Night one of the DNC: Goodbye Biden, hello Harris
On the first night of the Democratic National Convention in Chicago, the party ushered in a new candidate – and a new era. The convention was electrified by the Democratic Party’s newfound hope for electoral success with Kamala Harris as their nominee and reverence for President Joe Biden’s decision to step down.
In his keynote speech, Biden took to the stage teary-eyed as the crowd chanted, “Thank you, Joe!” While effectively saying farewell to his career in politics, Biden highlighted the triumphs of his presidency and offered a full-throated endorsement ofHarrisas his replacement.
He touted his success in rallying NATO to take on Russian President Vladimir Putin amid the war in Ukraine, lowering prescription prices, and canceling student loan debt. He also focused on legislative achievements, like the bipartisan infrastructure and CHIPS bills, which are key to many down-ballot Democrats’ campaigns. Biden was never more fired up than when speaking about Donald Trump, portraying the former president as an existential threat to the country.
Biden explained that his devotion to his nation fueled his decision to pass the baton to Harris. “I love this job,” he told the crowd, “but I love my country more.”
Introduction time. Harris has been on the national stage for years, but Democrats are still using the convention to boost her profile for voters who haven’t followed her career closely. Childhood friends described how her protective instincts drove her to become a prosecutor, a profession they argued made her the perfect opponent to take on Trump, who is facing multiple criminal indictments. Harris made two surprise appearances on stage as well last night, ensuring her presence was felt even if the crowd was gathered to hear Biden say goodbye.
The Democrats also had to prove they were unified behind Harris and sent out a long list of party heavyweights – moderates and progressives alike – to sing her praises. Many were women spanning generations and races, an unmistakable nod to Harris’ potential to be the first woman and woman of color to serve as president. Hillary Clinton called on Democrats to help Harris break the glass ceiling she couldn’t against Trump in 2016. “On the other side of that glass ceiling,” Clinton said, “is Kamala Harris raising her hand and taking the oath of office as our 47th president of the United States.”
Democratic platform unveiled. The event revealed the cornerstones of Harris’ campaign. Reproductive rights were center stage, an issue that has motivated Democrats to go to the polls since Roe v. Wade was overturned and is on the ballot in more than a half-dozen states.
Three women shared emotional stories about being denied care in states with abortion restrictions, and Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear, who won his race in a red state in part by defending abortion rights, warned that a second Trump term would further imperil abortion access.
There was also a focus on the issues facing the middle and working classes, like affordable childcare, high housing costs, and debt. Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, one of the party’s most prominent progressives, was met with a thunder of applause when she embraced Harris as a champion for these issues, describing her as a “woman who fights every single day to lift working people out from under the boots of greed trampling on our way of life.” Shawn Fain, the president of the powerful United Automobile Workers union, also gave a speech endorsing Harris.
The attacks on Trump were frequent. Rep. Jamie Raskin of Maryland recounted the Jan. 6 attack on the Capitol, and Rep. Robert Garcia of California said that during the COVID pandemic, Trump had “peddled conspiracy theories across the country.”
Trump, meanwhile, posted on Truth Social, accusing the Democrats of “a vicious coup,” pointing to the fact the party’s platform wasn’t updated after Biden stepped back from the race. That said, Democrats did not break any rules in making the switch.
But swapping Harris for Biden has reinvigorated Democrats. So far,the convention has served as a pep rally for the party's future. The energy in Chicago is reminiscent of the Republican National Convention, which took place just five weeks ago when the GOP was flying high off of Trump surviving an assassination attempt, his strong debate performance, and his lead over Biden in the polls.
The tables have turned quickly for Democrats, but Harris must still prove she can sustain her momentum — and a lot can change between now and November.
President Joe Biden looks on as Evan Gershkovich, who was released from detention in Russia, is greeted by his mother Ella Milman, upon his arrival at Joint Base Andrews in Maryland, on Aug. 1, 2024.
Did Moscow just open the diplomatic door?
They’re free! Wall Street Journal reporter Evan Gershkovich, former US Marine Paul Whelan, journalist Alsu Kurmasheva, and Kremlin critic Vladimir Kara-Murza were released in a major prisoner swap between Russia and the West on Thursday.
President Joe Biden proudly addressed the nation about securing the release of 16 prisoners, including 12 foreigners, noting that it was a “feat of diplomacy.” The plane carrying Gershkovich, Kurmasheva, and Whelan landed at Joint Base Andrews in Maryland late last night, where they were greeted by a heartwarming scene with their families, Biden, and Vice President Kamala Harris.
The less good news: Vadim Krasikov, a Russian imprisoned in Germany for murdering a former Chechen militant, also walked. But he’ll likely be stuck in Russia for the foreseeable future — so we won’t dwell on it.
Why now? Many assumed Vladimir Putin would avoid handing a clear win like this to Biden, or that the Kremlin would exact a bigger price in doing so. But instead, they’ve given up their highest-profile prisoners in exchange for 16 of their own in a politically advantageous win for the Biden-Harris administration. The swap was the result of months of complex negotiations and high-stakes diplomacy.
Still, we don’t know all the details. “We don’t know whether there were any quid pro quos that are not part of the public statements on all of this,” as Sam Greene, director for democratic resilience at the Center for European Policy Analysis, points out. And as for Biden, he says, “Maybe giving him a win isn’t so important [to the Kremlin] anymore.”
But it still surprises Greene “that [the Russians] would take essentially their entire deck of trading cards and cash it in for at least what on the face of it is not a whole heck of a lot.”
Could this signal that Russia is willing to engage in broader diplomacy? Unlikely, says Tinatin Japaridze, a regional expert and analyst at Eurasia Group. “Even though some will interpret the latest move as a signal of potential Russian openness to hold constructive negotiations on Ukraine,” she says, “it is too soon to jump to those conclusions.”
Greene agrees that the swap is unlikely to have a big impact on the war, but he does see room for hope. It upends the Western narrative that there isn’t really a negotiating partner for diplomatic outreach in Moscow. While the prisoner swap didn’t involve anything else Moscow is otherwise fighting for — at least as far as we know — there is one bonus for Russia: “It does kind of send a message or can be seen to send the message that there is a negotiating partner in the Kremlin,” he says.
And Moscow may see this as a now-or-never moment, Greene says. Western F-16s are now landing in Ukraine, which improves Ukrainian capabilities, and the US election looks a little bit less likely to go the way Putin wants (read: for Donald Trump), while the Russians are making progress on the front lines but at a huge cost.
“So maybe they do want to send that signal,” says Greene.
We’ll be watching for any signs of Moscow’s willingness to negotiate.