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Hunter Biden's convictions won't derail his father's re-election bid
Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week on World In :60, live from the Toronto US-Canada Summit.
What are the implications of Hunter Biden's convictions for his father's presidential campaign?
You know, it's a little bit of tit for tat. You're going to see a lot of Republicans saying, “See the Biden crime family! Look at this guy. I mean, he's a convict.” It's ugly. It's embarrassing for the Biden family, of course. But at the same time, it's not very significant charges and it certainly doesn't link directly to President Biden. Five months away, are people going to be talking about this or Trump's 34 convictions, the weakest of the cases that he's actually facing? I suspect neither of them are going to matter very much, even though, on balance, Trump's is the one that should matter more.
Will recent EU elections bring a dramatic shift to Europe or more of the same?
Well, overall, the European Parliament looks a lot like the old European Parliament. A few more seats for the right wing, but the far-right is not very aligned, doesn't work cohesively. I still think Ursula von der Leyen is going to be, yet again, European Commission president. And in many countries the populist, the anti-establishment did a lot worse. In Sweden, for example, in Portugal and others. On balance, there's not much change here. Two things that matter one a little bit is that Schulz and his Social Democrats really underperformed. The German economy not doing well, he's not seen as much of a leader. A three-party coalition, Germany, largely centrist and pretty stable no matter what. Much bigger: France. Macron's party, historically, got pasted. That's why he's called for parliamentary elections in just a few weeks. And when they happen, if Le Pen's party, the National Rally, wins and they're able to put forward a prime minister, there's is a major, major problem for governance in France and for the need of anything that the EU has to have parliamentary approval in France to get done, and that includes the Ukraine problem going forward.
How Canadians viewing the impending Biden Trump rematch?
You know, in some ways a little more comfortably than they did the last time around because the US-Mexico-Canada agreement's already in place and Trump got it done with this Canadian government. So, I think that they feel a little like, “Hey, we dealt with them once, we can deal with them again.” There's much more strategy and strategic alignment in the importance of the US-Canada relationship today than there was five, 10 years ago, in part because on China they're much more aligned, on things like, major wars outside of this part of the world, they're much more aligned, on Haiti, they're much more aligned. But also keep in mind that Canada's also facing an election in a year. And right now, it looks like the Tories, the conservatives in Canada, would win big, ahead by over 20 points. In which case you'd have a Canadian government and a US government, if Trump were to win, that would be very aligned. Just on a very different part of the political spectrum. Either way, very friendly and very stable relationship, which is more than we can say for most of them around the world.
Hunter Biden's trial shows the US criminal justice system is working
Republican lawmakers are attacking the US criminal justice system as “rigged” and “shameful” after former president Donald Trump’s criminal convictions, calling the case a blatant example of political persecution. But in a twist of legal happenstance, Hunter Biden’s criminal trial began in Delaware just days after the Trump verdict was announced.
Bharara pointed out how unlikely it would be, if Trump won the presidency and somehow Don Jr. was indicted and put on trial, that the former president would stand idly by and not comment on it or try to get involved somehow, which Bremmer agreed was “inconceivable.” Not only that, but the timing of Hunter’s trial isn’t good for Biden, who wants the messaging right now to be squarely on Trump’s legal woes.
“You couldn’t even make this up,” Glasser argues, “That literally, while the Democrats finally get a couple days where they’re focusing the lens squarely on Donald Trump and his fitness for office, then boom, two days later, Hunter Biden is on trial. The timing is a reminder that Biden can’t seem to catch a break.”
Catch GZERO World with Ian Bremmer every week on US public television (check local listings) and online.
Hunter Biden, son of U.S. President Joe Biden, and his wife Melissa Cohen Biden and U.S. first lady Jill Biden leave the federal court after the jury finds him guilty on all three counts in his trial on criminal gun charges, in Wilmington, Delaware, U.S., June 11, 2024.
Hunter Biden convicted in gun trial
Hunter Biden was convicted on Tuesday of three felony charges related to a 2018 gun purchase, capping a high-profile trial that could impact the 2024 presidential election.
A federal jury found President Joe Biden’s son guilty of making false statements on paperwork to acquire a handgun while struggling with drug addiction and of illegal possession of a firearm. The verdict followed testimony from several of Hunter’s romantic partners and his daughter Naomi about his substance abuse issues around the time of the purchase.
With a potential appeal looming, Hunter’s sentencing hearing is likely to take place in about four months. He could face up to 25 years in jail on these charges, though legal experts think it’s unlikely he will face more than a few months, if any. He is also set for trial in September on separate tax evasion charges.
Republicans have signaled they will seize on the conviction to portray the Bidens as corrupt, though the president has pledged to let the judicial process play out and ruled out pardoning his son. But the verdict also provides Democrats a counterpoint to Republican claims of a politically motivated Justice Department: A Trump-appointed prosecutor charged Hunter.
Hunter Biden, son of U.S. President Joe Biden, arrives at the federal court during the opening day of his trial on criminal gun charges in Wilmington, Delaware, U.S., June 3, 2024.
Hunter Biden’s gun trial begins
Hunter Biden’s trial has begun in Wilmington, Delaware. The son of President Joe Biden is facing three felony charges for illegally purchasing and possessing a gun while addicted to drugs back in 2018.
The charges stem from Hunter saying he was not abusing drugs when he purchased a gun, which he says he bought because he thought spending time at a shooting range would help him stay clean.
If convicted, he could face up to 25 years in prison and a$750,000 fine. However, when these kinds of charges are brought, the accused is usuallyonly indicted if they are also found guilty of a more serious crime. The trial is expected to last three to four days.
This is the first time a child of a sitting president has gone on trial, and it could impact Biden’s reelection campaign. It also comes a week after Biden’s opponent, Donald Trump, set another felonious first: Becoming the first US president to be convicted of a felony – 34 felony charges, to be exact.
Both sides look like hypocrites. In response to Trump’s trials, Republicans claim that Biden has rigged the justice system in his favor, an argument that is undermined by the Justice Department pursuing a member of his own family. But on the other side, Democrats are arguing that the prosecution is politically motivated – an echo of how Republicans see the Trump trials.
What the Trump trial circus is missing
On the first day of the first criminal trial of a former US president, I couldn’t resist. The courthouse is 15 minutes from my desk here in New York, so I jumped on the 6 Train and headed out to the scrum of protesters, counterprotesters, journalists, police, and other gawkers in Lafayette Park outside the courthouse.
There was lots – lots – of yelling. Just as I arrived, a guy in a “Gays for Trump, You got a problem with that, Bitch!” T-shirt was at the center of a smartphone scrum screaming at a woman holding a “Trump is the Definition of Depravity” sign that she was a “pedophile.”
Before long, content creators from both sides of the national divide were on the scene, livestreaming and shouting at each other about Hunter Biden, about inflation, about child labor, about immigration. Even Triumph the Comic Insult Dog barked into the mix, asking one of several Proud Boys stalking the scene in wraparound shades: “If Trump is convicted, do you think he’ll be sentenced to four years … in the White House?”
The only people not screaming, as I recall, were four elderly Chinese-American ladies in huge sunglasses, sitting on a bench under a leafless sweetgum tree, holding hand-painted signs that read: “Kangaroo Court, Banana Republic.”
It was, in all, the usual performative mayhem about the usual subjects. But the one thing that almost no one was actually yelling about was the thing that was going on inside the building 100 feet away: the trial itself.
All that circus, and hardly a word about the elephant in the ring.
But isn’t that how a lot of us talk about Trump’s trials and titillations these days? We argue about the politics rather than look at the merits. And that’s a bad thing.
For Trump, the political cage matches keep the focus right where he wants it: on the narrative that he, as a popular threat to a corrupt establishment, is the victim of a political witch hunt. That the ruling party is using the justice system to silence a political rival. That those ladies with the big sunglasses under the sweetgum tree are right.
On the other side, people talk about the long-coming legal downfall of a demagogue seen as a threat to the Republic itself. The Capone of politics nabbed on his own kind 0f tax rap.
“People know what verdict they want in this case,” says Richard Klein, a professor of law at Touro Law School and a longtime trial criminal defense lawyer. “But few people are focusing on DA Bragg’s case against Trump. They're focusing on all the noise around it.”
To review, briefly. Manhattan DA Alvin Bragg alleges that Trump falsified business records to conceal a payment that was made, in the fall of 2016, to a porn star who says she and Trump had a fling.
“Hush money” is bad, but that’s not actually what the trial is about. Paying someone to keep quiet isn’t necessarily a crime, and fiddling with business records in New York isn’t a felony.
Bragg’s case elevates the charges by arguing that this book-cooking was done with the intention of committing other felonious infractions – including, it seems, a conspiracy to influence the outcome of the 2016 election and commit tax fraud.
To prove this intent, Bragg will bring various witnesses, including Trump’s former lawyer and fixer-in-chief Michael Cohen, who made the payments, as well their recipient, the actress known as “Stormy Daniels.”
Legal scholars like Klein say Bragg’s approach is something of a high-wire act. He is linking dozens of lower-level crimes – some of which Trump appears to have admitted publicly – to harder-to-prove felonious ones, and then asking a jury to decide that Trump did all of this to sway an upcoming election rather than, say, simply to save his marriage or protect his kids from scandal.
The key witnesses, moreover, aren’t exactly folks with an unblemished reputation for truthtelling. Cohen has already admitted to lying under oath previously.
How much does this matter? If Bragg fails to convince the jury, Trump will be vindicated – look, he’ll say, these kangaroo court prosecutors came at me and 12 very good people of New York saw through it. This will color the politics of the other three cases he faces.
If Trump is convicted, of course, it may not move the needle for the 35% of “you got a problem with that bitch!”Americans who are unwaveringly fanatically loyal to him.
But about half of Americans say if Trump is convicted he should not be president again. That includes 14% of Republicans and, perhaps more importantly, a third of independents who say a guilty verdict would sway their vote. In a tight election – and this one will be tight – that could certainly be the difference.
As I went to file this, news broke that the jury has been set for the trial. And so we’re off. I may not be able to resist heading down to Lafayette square for some good mayhem again in the coming weeks – but as a society it’s a mistake to let that political circus distract us from the real drama in the courtroom itself.
Hunter Biden, son of U.S. President Joe Biden, departs federal court n Wilmington, Delaware.
House set to vote on Biden impeachment inquiry
So far, it looks like the House GOP has the votes, with many of the Republicans who were skeptical six months ago – most from Biden-won districts – coming on board. While they are still concerned about potential backlash in their districts, the desire to force subpoenas and White House cooperation is changing their minds.
The pro-inquiry ranks got a boost on Friday when Hunter Biden was charged by a federal court for allegedly failing to pay millions in income taxes. The House has subpoenaed Biden to testify in a closed-door hearing on Wednesday. Biden agreed on the condition that the hearing be public, citing concerns that his statements would be taken out of context. The House refused, setting up the potential for a legal showdown if Biden fails to appear.
While there has not yet been any hard evidence of wrongdoing by the president himself, Republicans frequently point to a 2018 video, where President Biden speaks about withholding a loan until guarantee until a prominent Ukrainian official – with links to a Ukrainian gas company that Hunter is on the board of – was fired. Republicans need to build a bridge between Hunter Biden’s vices and their accusations that his father committed high crimes and misdemeanors. The GOP points to potential links between If they fail to do so, Republicans risk the inquiry appearing to be a form of revenge for the impeachments of Donald Trump, which could jeopardize Republicans in swing districts.
U.S. President Joe Biden's son, Hunter Biden, walks outside on the day of his appearance in a federal court on gun charges in Wilmington, Delaware, U.S., October 3, 2023.
Hard Numbers: Hunter Biden in court, deadly Niger ambush, post-terror raids in Turkey, India questions journalists, cyber attacks target Kenya
3: President Joe Biden’s son Hunter President Joe Biden's son pleaded not guilty to three firearms charges in a Delaware federal court on Tuesday. The younger Biden was indicted last month on three counts related to possession of a firearm while using illegal drugs.
29: In one of the deadliest raids in Niger since soldiers staged a coup in July, a group of soldiers conducting operations against militants were ambushed by more than 100 insurgents. At least 29 soldiers were killed.
13,400: Following a terrorist attack in Ankara last week, Turkish authorities have dispatched some 13,400 security officers to carry out raids in 64 Turkish provinces to find suspects with ties to Kurdish militant groups and those who possess illegal weapons. Hundreds of people have been arrested.
30: Indian authorities are carrying out raids too. On Tuesday, police in Delhi raided the homes of several well-known journalists and authors at 30 separate locations as part of an investigation of news website NewsClick. Opposition critics say NewsClick is guilty only of criticizing Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s BJP government. Authorities say they suspect the website is funded by China.
860 million: Kenya’s communications regulator says the country has experienced a record 860 million cyber attacks in the past year, and that “the frequency, sophistication and scale of cyber-threats” targeted at Kenya’s critical information infrastructure is surging. Makes you wonder how many daily attacks are directed at, say, the United States, China, Russia, or Ukraine.
Hunter Biden's legal issues are an opportunity for GOP
Jon Lieber, head of Eurasia Group's coverage of political and policy developments in Washington, DC shares his perspective on US politics.
Is President Biden's son Hunter a political liability for him?
This week, an extraordinary scene played out in a courtroom in Delaware as a judge rejected a plea deal that was negotiated by lawyers for President Biden's son Hunter over illegal possession of a firearm and tax evasion. Republicans have been criticizing the plea deal for weeks, saying it was far too lenient on the president's son, and reflected what they've called a two-tier justice system being pursued by federal law enforcement. One tier is attempting to prosecute former President Trump for mishandling classified documents and his role in trying to overturn the election results in 2020, and another that is giving the current president's son a slap on the wrist that would've provided him immunity from far more serious charges that he acted as an unregistered foreign agent.
The younger Biden has struggled with drug addiction and has been involved in what seems to be some very shady business deals, including serving in lucrative board positions for foreign companies, despite seemingly offering very little value other than his last name, and making significant sums of money selling his art to democratic donors and others trying to curry favor with the Biden administration. Despite this, President Biden has defended him and kept him close, even inviting him to the state dinner last month with Indian Prime Minister Modi. And though Biden sees no threat to his reelection campaign, Republicans see this as a massive opportunity to take one of Biden's biggest campaign assets, the appearance of his integrity, and turn it against him by painting Biden with a whiff of corruption, including unfounded allegations that he took bribes as vice president to interfere with an ongoing investigation in Ukraine.
Republicans are hoping to neutralize the charges being leveled against former President Trump in state and federal courtrooms and paint the FBI and federal law enforcement as deeply politicized. Republicans don't have to prove a thing for this tactic to be successful. With the amount of confusing information about what President Biden did and didn't do that will come out in congressional hearings and a likely impeachment inquiry later this year, it will be enough for even normal independent voters to start asking questions about the politicization of federal law enforcement, what Biden did and didn't do, and ultimately discredit the Department of Justice with a large segment of the most partisan Republican voters. These issues are not top of mind for voters this year. The economy is. But they do show how brutal and ugly the 2024 campaign season is going to be.
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