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Trump sexual abuse verdict won't hurt him with GOP

Trump was found liable in lawsuit by E. Jean Carroll. Does this hurt his 2024 presidential aspirations? After his Victory Day speech falsely comparing his invasion of Ukraine to the defeat of Nazi Germany, is Putin losing domestic support? How might Imran Khan's arrest affect stability in Pakistan? Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week on World In :60.

Number one, Trump was found liable in lawsuit by E. Jean Carroll. Does this hurt his 2024 presidential aspirations?

Found liable for sexual abuse and for defamation, not for rape. A civil case, $5 million he's going to have to pay. That is a horrible, horrible state of affairs for the former president of the United States. It's a stain on the country and it should matter, but it won't. It will be seen by his supporters as yet one more witch hunt, and his immediate response was, "I don't even know the woman," which is obviously untrue, but is a feature of his presidency and of his candidacy. Keep in mind, the people that are voting for him for the nomination are largely people that very strongly support him and very strongly oppose Biden. I suspect that if anything, this is going to have a negligible to slightly positive impact on the way he's likely to perform in the Republican primaries, and that is an insane thing to say.

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Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis signed HB 7, known as the “stop woke act,” in Florida, on April 22, 2022.

Daniel A. Varela/Miami Herald/TNS/ABACAPRESS.COM

Ron DeSantis and the latest battle over Black history

As Black History Month begins today in the US, the country’s latest culture war battle is about … Black history.

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House Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy.

Reuters

Rinse, repeat: Republicans fail to agree on the House speaker

Traditionally, the first day of a newly elected Congress is filled with pomp and circumstance. Children wearing little suits and frilly dresses accompany their parents to the House floor where a new class of lawmakers is sworn in.

But the first day of the 118th Congress was not very joyous for one man in particular: Kevin McCarthy. In an embarrassing series of events, the leader of the House GOP failed to secure a majority of votes – 218 – needed to become House speaker. After three rounds of voting, 20 Republican holdouts still refused to budge, backing candidates not named McCarthy for the role. What’s more, McCarthy actually shed a vote in subsequent ballots.

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GZERO Media

Exclusive Maru/GZERO poll: Tired of fighting, slim majority of Americans back divided government

Many pundits in the US have long declared the age of political bipartisanship dead. And in the age of QAnon, “lock her up,” and “defund the police,” it’s easy to see how they might have reached such a conclusion.

Still, as divided government returns to Washington – with the GOP now in control of the House of Representatives – it appears that the constant mudslinging between Democrats and Republicans is not necessarily appealing to American voters.

An exclusive new poll conducted by Maru Public Opinion and GZERO Media found that a narrow majority of Americans – both Republicans and Democrats – think divided government is better for the country. Of the randomly selected 1,517 American adults polled (estimated margin of error of +/- 2.5%), 51% said they prefer split government, meaning that both parties control one chamber of Congress each, or that control of the legislative and executive branches is split between the GOP and Dems.

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Will Trump’s 2024 Candidacy Sink Republicans? | US Politics In :60 | GZERO Media

Will Trump’s 2024 candidacy sink Republicans?

Jon Lieber, head of Eurasia Group's coverage of political and policy developments in Washington, DC shares his perspective on US politics:

Is the Republican Party still Trump's party to lead after the midterm elections?

The biggest news this week, other than Taylor Swift tickets going on presale, is the announcement by former President Donald Trump that he is going to run for president a third time. Trump's role with Republicans is a huge source of discord within the party right now. He remains one of, if not the most popular Republicans, but he is not delivering the electoral results the way he once did. Trump-aligned candidates had some of the worst nights in the midterm elections, in some cases trailing other Republicans from the same state by 20 points or more.

This is a huge dilemma for Republicans who can't win with him, but they also probably can't win without him, as there is a hard core of Trump-supporting voters within the GOP base who helped Trump candidates win their primaries in Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Arizona. If Trump does win the primary, there are a lot of people in both parties who think he is so toxic, it will give the election to the Democrats in 2024. Of course, depending on the state of the economy. But if he does not win the primary, there are serious questions as to how conciliatory he's willing to be, and if he would help the eventual Republican candidate or just take his base and go home.

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Voters cast their ballots in the midterm election, in Detroit, Michigan.

Reuters

US midterms: What we know and what we don’t

It was anything but a boring night in US politics. Votes are still being tallied in many states, but one thing is clear: There was no red wave.

Here’s what we know – and what we don’t – after a night spent watching breathless vote counting and downing too much coffee.

What we know:

A nightmare scenario for Trump. In Florida, incumbent Gov. Ron DeSantis won in a blowout, setting up one helluva showdown with Donald Trump, who is expected to announce his third bid for the White House next week.

Trump appears to be feeling increasingly threatened by DeSantis, a rising Republican star, and has sought to intimidate the Floridian in recent days. Crucially, DeSantis won Miami Dade, Florida's most populous county, by more than 11 points, reflecting the Republican Party's inroads with Hispanic voters.

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Trump-backed insurgents are ready to do battle with establishment Republicans across the United States in coming years. How will this war be waged?

Gabriella Turrisi

Republican civil war

"There's no question, none — that President Trump is practically and morally responsible for provoking" the January 6 Capitol building riot. That attack was the "foreseeable consequence of the crescendo of false statements, conspiracy theories and reckless hyperbole, which the defeated president kept shouting into the largest megaphone on the Earth."

So said Kentucky's Mitch McConnell, US Senate Republican leader since 2006, just after voting last Saturday to acquit the president of high crimes and misdemeanors following Trump's Senate impeachment trial.

On Tuesday, Trump punched back. "Mitch is a dour, sullen, and unsmiling political hack, and if Republican Senators are going to stay with him, they will not win again." On Thursday, the pro-Trump chairman of Kentucky's Republican Party called on McConnell to resign as Republican leader.

The battle is joined.

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Who's Joe Biden going to visit first?

Now that Joe Biden is officially US president, leaders from around the world would like a word with him — but where will he make his first international trip?

After a tumultuous four years, many countries are now clamoring for a face-to-face with President Biden. That includes allies who felt abandoned by Trump's "America First" presidency, as well as adversaries with thorny issues on the agenda. We check in on who's pitching him hardest on a near-term state visit.

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