Trending Now
We have updated our Privacy Policy and Terms of Use for Eurasia Group and its affiliates, including GZERO Media, to clarify the types of data we collect, how we collect it, how we use data and with whom we share data. By using our website you consent to our Terms and Conditions and Privacy Policy, including the transfer of your personal data to the United States from your country of residence, and our use of cookies described in our Cookie Policy.
{{ subpage.title }}
A guide for the “undecided” US voter
There are less than two months before the US presidential election. Do you, dear US voter, know whom you are going to vote for? Chances are the answer is “yes.”
True undecideds are a rare species, especially this late in the cycle.
Back in the final days before the 2020 election, our satire series “Puppet Regime” went to find the last three of them in America: They were Lowly Worm, who had been living under a rock; Rip Van Winkle, who had been asleep for 20 years; and Pinocchio, whose nose grew every time he told a pollster he still wasn’t sure whom he’d vote for.
The point? In a deeply polarized country choosing between two starkly different candidates — one of whom has been a well-known quantity for almost a decade — there aren’t many people out there whose minds aren’t already made up.
The data backs this up. A recent poll in Pennsylvania, a major swing state, showed that just 3% of those registered “don’t know who they will vote for.” Meanwhile, 85% already had their choice set, and an additional 12% said they had a preference but could still potentially be swayed.
But even small numbers matter, of course. If recent elections are any guide, the margin of victory in the Keystone State will be about 1%. The same will likely be true of other swing states like Michigan, Wisconsin, Nevada, and Arizona.
So, if you are one of the true holdouts who is still perplexed about whom to vote for — or whether to vote at all — we are here to help. We put together a list of the best reasons an imaginary moderate might vote for Donald Trump or Kamala Harris.
Here goes.
If you vote for Kamala Harris, it’s because:
Protecting access to abortion is a major issue for you. Since the Trump-sculpted SCOTUS overturned Roe v. Wade in 2022, it’s been a mixed bag for abortion rights. Some states have rejected the most restrictive laws — or look set to in upcoming referendums — while others have imposed draconian ones. Conservative activists have called for national-level prohibitions, either by Congress or executive action. Trump has given no indication he would stand in the way of either. Harris, on the other hand, has promised to sign national abortion protection into law — though that would require it to pass Congress first.
You think the richest Americans should pay more taxes. To be fair,you aren’t quite sure what Harris intends to do about grocery prices or housing – you like that she’s mentioned both, but her proposals sound a little heavy-handed – but at a basic level, you think inequality is a problem, and that the rich should pay a bigger share than they do today. You also like what she’s said about expanding child tax credits and giving a boost to small businesses. You are going on vibes here, but you buy her concern about small businesses and the middle class.
You think a certain kind of character matters for the presidency. Trump is chaotic. He lies a lot. He is a convicted felon. He has disputed a fair election and at least tacitly encouraged a riot protesting the transfer of power. Even if you don’t object to some of his ideas on the economy or immigration, you think at a minimum that it would diminish the presidency, and the country, to honor a person like this (again) with the most powerful job in the world. At a maximum, you think his impulses, coupled with a recently expanded interpretation of presidential immunity, would imperil America’s democratic institutions.
You think a US-led world order is important. You are well-informed enough to understand that the US supports both democracies and dictatorships around the world, but you also think that alliances with fellow democracies like NATO matter and that Washington should push back against efforts by the world’s most powerful non-democracies to expand their power and territory.
On the other hand, if you vote for Donald Trump, it will be because:
You miss the pre-pandemic economy. Poll after poll shows that voters think Trump will be better for the economy, likely because they have fond memories of the pre-pandemic good old days. In 2019, median household income saw the biggest spike in more than four decades — hitting arecord high of $68,700. The poverty rate fell to 10.5%, the lowest since records started six decades earlier, and prices for food and gas were much lower. To bring back the party, Trump has promised to cut regulation and lower the corporate tax rate to 20%. He’d also extend his 2017 tax cuts, which would give everyonea tax break, even if the largest would go to the wealthiest Americans.
You think the US should prioritize domestic industry and energy. Trump says the welfare of US industries and workers is more important than global economic integration. He renegotiated NAFTA (now USMCA) to appeal to those who believe past deals hurt American workers, and his willingness to impose tariffs on China resonates with voters concerned about Beijing’s economic rise and unfair trade practices.
Trump has proposed a 10% global tariff and a 60% tariff on Chinese imports, which could raise up to $3.8 trillion over a decade, even if raising the price of goods would also constitute a de facto tax on households. He also wants to unleash more American energy production and thinks that overemphasis on the green energy transition hurts US industries and hampers growth.
You think the US should keep its nose out of other countries’ wars. Trumpis overtly skeptical of foreign intervention, which aligns with voters who, after two decades of fighting in Afghanistan, Syria, and Iraq, are fed up with wars that seem to go on indefinitely.
He believes the West has exaggerated the threat posed by Vladimir Putin and opposes sending more US military aid to Ukraine. China, he believes, is more dangerous than Russia because Beijing threatens to outpace the United States as the world’s dominant economic power.
You think the border is a big problem. As he did in 2016, Trump has put illegal immigration at the center of his campaign. The former president says he would militarize the border and conduct mass deportations of the undocumented. While his rhetoric sometimes veers into xenophobia or conspiracy, his emphasis on the gravity of the issue is in line with the broader feeling in the country. Gallup p0lls show that the majority of Americans view the situation at the US border to be a crisis and favor stricter asylum policies and more border control agents. Many of these voters blame Harris for the current situation at the border, since immigration was part of her portfolio as vice president.
You think he might not be a good person, but he tells it like it is. Democrats can make a mountain of moralistic condemnations of Trump — that he’s been indicted on criminal charges and incited an insurrection – but many voters don’t care about the political drama. They just want a president who speaks to their lived reality. Trump’s message of “America in decline” resonates with many voters living in communities where industries and opportunities have fled, where crime and costs-of-living crises have taken their place, and where politically correct pieties seem to take precedence over solutions to their problems.
_____
And the case for not worrying too much regardless of who wins? You probably think that whatever the excesses of Trump or Harris might be, a narrowly divided Congress and strong US institutions will restrain their worst impulses and ideas. There will be, you are confident, no “fascism” or “socialism” in America under either Harris or Trump. This raises a new question: Will you, unconcerned, fair-minded voter, bother casting a vote at all?
Well, who’s it going to be? Tell us what you think is the best case for and against each candidate here. If you include your name and where you’re writing from, we may include your response in an upcoming edition of the GZERO Daily, our flagship newsletter.
Trump says “no” to third presidential debate
There will be no rematch. Donald Trump on Thursday said he would not debate Kamala Harris again after tangling with her for nearly two hours earlier this week.
As he told it in a post on Truth Social, he won the debate, and “Comrade Kamala Harris,” who immediately after the debate called for another encounter, was merely acting like a “prizefighter [who] loses a fight.”
The polls so far say something different. According to several studies cited by the analysis website FiveThirtyEight, nearly 60% of people who watched the faceoff thought Harris came out on top.
It’s unclear how much that will help Harris in either national or battleground races — the post-debate endorsement of Taylor Swift, which caused a tsunami of voter registrations, may prove to have a more lasting impact.
But whatever the effects of the debate were for either candidate, Trump has made it clear: There will not be a round 3.
Graphic Truth: Who has the highest youth voter turnout?
Ah, the elusive youth vote, a demographic that has been historically unreliable in terms of turnout — but will be key in the extremely close US election. In the 2020 election, about half of voters under 30 voted, up from 39% in 2016. Meanwhile, in Canada, youth participation tends to be higher and more stable, with projections indicating about 60% turnout for young voters in the next federal election.
Following the debate on Tuesday, Taylor Swift endorsed Kamala Harris, leading337,000 people to visit vote.gov, a website that helps first-time voters register to vote.
The pop icon’s endorsement, while unlikely to change the minds of many Donald Trump supporters, could have an outsized impact on turning out Democratic-leaning young voters to write Harris’ name in the “Blank Space”on their ballots.
For context, we looked at youth turnout in recent elections in the UK and France, which helped illuminate that when it comes to young voters nothing is guaranteed. In France, the rise of the far right in the first round of parliamentary elections led to a surge in youth turnout, at 57% of voters. This was up from 31% in 2022. Meanwhile, the UK saw youth turnout plummet to a mere 35% in the 2024 general election. This record low highlights deepening disengagement and frustration among British youth with the political establishment.
GZERO presidential debate scorecard: Rate the debate!
GZERO will try to declare a winner of Tuesday night's debate. Check out our scoring rubric. If you use it when you watch, let us know who you awarded the most points. Not feeling like keeping score? We also have bingo cards for your debate watch party here.
Republican presidential nominee and former U.S. President Donald Trump speaks during a Fox News town hall hosted by Sean Hannity in Harrisburg, Pennsylvania, U.S. September 4, 2024.
Trump wants a voter ID law – or a government shutdown
Two months out from the presidential election in the United States, Donald Trump is spoiling for a voter identification law, but he’ll settle for a government shutdown.
Trump is leaning on Republicans in Congress to push the SAVE Act, a bill that would require voters to present proof of citizenship to vote. Critics say the bill is redundant since non-citizen voting is already illegal. They argue voter ID laws are ineffective and suppress turnout, especially among minority communities.
As the Sept. 30 deadline to fund the government approaches, Trump wants Congressional Republicans to tie funding to passing the voter ID bill – a move the party is considering, and one that would throw an already rambunctious election season into total chaos.
Since 1980, the federal government has shut down 14 times, most recently in 2018-2019 during the Trump administration. A partial shutdown, it lasted 34 days and carried a hefty price tag of around $11 billion.
Congressional Democrats oppose both the SAVE Act and the idea of tying government funding to its passing. Trump’s gambit is a test of his influence among Republicans in Congress and comes as reports circulate that a growing number of party members are “privately” at peace with, or even rooting for, a Trump loss in November.
SAN FRANCISCO, CA - SEPTEMBER 29: Mayor London Breed (2nd L) and Zhang Jianmin (3rd L), China's Consul-General in San Francisco, raise a Chinese national flag to celebrate the 74th anniversary of the founding of the People's Republic of China at the City Hall on September 29, 2023 in San Francisco, California.
Who’s afraid of a Chinese influence campaign?
Linda Sun, a former aide to New York Govs. Kathy Hochul and Andrew Cuomo, has been charged with acting as an agent of the Chinese government, Justice Department officials announced Tuesday. She allegedly used her position to forward improper invitations to Chinese officials allowing them to travel within the US and meet government counterparts. In exchange, she and her husband allegedly received millions of dollars and other fringe benefits, including some Nanjing salted ducks (delicious).
It’s a packed week on the Chinese covert influence beat: The Washington Post on Tuesday released an in-depth investigation powered by advanced facial recognition software on a network of Chinese diplomats and Beijing-friendly civil society groups that allegedly cooperate to repress and intimidate critics of China in the US. Not just improper letters and tasty ducks: They have reportedly carried out face-to-face confrontations with dissidents that have sometimes resulted in beatings.
Not all influence campaigns in the US are built equal. Also on Tuesday, intelligence firm Graphika released a report on a network of spam and disinformation accounts linked to a Chinese influence operation aiming to inject anti-Western themes into online discourse ahead of November’s US election. The so-called “Spamouflage” campaign consisted of 15 accounts on X, one on TikTok, and a fake news outlet that posted across multiple platforms.
The good news is they were bad at their job. Many of the accounts obviously used AI-generated pictures and messages in awkward English, despite claiming to be native-born US activists. Very few of their posts seem to have gained traction among real social media users.
Eurasia Group’s regional expert Jeremy Chan says running interference isn’t a high priority for Beijing in this election cycle. “It’s important to stress that most parts of the Chinese system likely are keeping their distance from these efforts;” he says. “In fact, Beijing’s stance toward the two candidates in the US remains somewhat of a mystery, and Chinese officials and academics say that Beijing only has bad options in this election.”
Democratic presidential nominee and U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris reacts as she attends a Labor Day campaign event, at IBEW Local Union #5 in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, U.S., September 2, 2024.
Can Harris hold onto her lead?
With just one week before the first debate between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump, polling averages show Harris slightly ahead but statistically tied due to the nature of the electoral college. That means Harris needs voters where they count most — in her case, the vaunted Blue Wall of Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin.
Harris hammered home her pro-worker message on campaign stops in Pittsburgh and Detroit for Labor Day on Monday, arguably the cities most identified with industrialization and the organized labor movement. She cast her rivals as anti-union scabs (those who cross picket lines) and promised not to return to the “failed policies” of tax breaks for the 1% or to repeal of social services like Obamacare.
Trump and his vice presidential nominee, Sen. JD Vance, didn’t clap back — the campaign scheduled no events for either candidate on the Monday holiday. However, Trump had an … eventful rally in Johnstown, PA, on Friday, where he labeled the media “the enemy of the people” and praised a supporter who allegedly tried to attack the press. He also praised his supporters for “allowing” their wives to attend his rallies without their husbands — notably at a time when Harris is leading among women by 13 percentage points — and called Florida Rep. Bryon Donalds, arguably his most prominent Black supporter, one of the “smart ones” without clarifying what he meant.Supporters hold placards as Democratic presidential nominee and US Vice President Kamala Harris visits North Western High School in Detroit, Mich., on Sept. 2, 2024.
Foreign policy tests lurk within the US election
By all accounts, the 47th president of the United States will have plenty on the domestic to-do list once they assume office on Jan. 20, 2025. The US continues to navigate a post-COVID hangover with inflation hovering higher than before the pandemic and a long-expected interest rate reduction remaining just beyond reach.
In the latest indicator of economic health, theUS Bureau of Labor Statistics revised downward its estimate of jobs created for the year ending in March 2024 to the tune of 818,000. These numbers matter to US voters, who are feeling it in their pocketbooks. Measures ofeconomic confidence have fallen through 2024, even as inflation, pricing pressures, and the economy continue to be top issues for voters.
Will isolationism win?
Yet, if the last four years have taught us anything, it is that developments abroad and the demands on US foreign policy are never dormant. Given the stakes, global leadership has been tracking former President Donald Trump’s words closely over the last year. Now, with Vice President Kamala Harris’ historically late entrance into the race, the world is left wondering if isolationism will win in November, or if something else (but what is it?) may drive the US approach to the world over the next four years.
Trump has never been one to shy away from the headlines. Earlier this year, he sent ripples across Europe when he claimed he would encourage Russia to do “whatever the hell they want” to any NATO member not paying their fair share on defense. Given prior reports that Trump contemplated pulling the US from NATO during his first administration, this warning focused the minds and dominated conversations across European security circles. His VP running-mate selection of Sen. JD Vance, an opponent of US security guarantees, has more recently exacerbated those concerns.
From promises to ending the war in Ukraine upon taking office by negotiating on favorable terms with Russia to apolicy platform that includes “building a great iron dome missile defense shield over our entire country,” Trump’s America First brand of foreign policy has become synonymous with a go-it-alone, pull-up-the-drawbridge isolationism.
With unresolved conflicts remaining (Ukraine, Israel, Sudan) and potential stressors lurking (South China Sea, the wider Middle East region, the Arctic), many allies and adversaries of the US await a Trump 2.0 with apprehension. President Joe Biden’s exit and Harris’ stepping into the 2024 campaign have represented a potential reprieve for these anxieties.
Glimpses of Harris’ vision begin to seep through
Despite plenty of reporting on the alternative, relatively little is known about what a Harris foreign policy agenda would look like. In her nomination acceptance speech at last month’s Democratic National Convention, Harris spoke at length about the US’ global role and the need to be “steadfast in advancing our security and values abroad.”
She touched on the range of ongoing territorial tensions – from China and Russia-Ukraine to the Middle East – as well as borderless challenges like artificial intelligence and space. In a particularly insightful, behind-the-scenes moment, Harris described meeting with President Volodymyr Zelensky five days before Russia attacked Ukraine to warn him of the planned invasion.
While conventional wisdom suggests that Harris represents a policy continuity story for Democrats, there are early indications that as president she would chart her own course. In her DNC speech, Harris sought to associate herself with the Biden administration’s perceived successes (the global coalition for Ukraine), distance herself from its missteps (the Afghanistan withdrawal), and introduce daylight where she has apparent conviction. The clearest evidence of that daylight thus far has been on Israel, where Harris has projected a sense that she holds multiple difficult truths in parallel. In her first sit-down interview since accepting the nomination, Harris revealed little more of her plan for resolving the conflict, saying only that a deal must get done.
Perhaps the biggest indicator to follow is personal, or personnel. It has long been believed that current national security advisor Jake Sullivan would not stay on through a second Biden administration. With Harris being guided by a separate set of policy strategists, including her national security advisor Philip Gordon, the major architects of Biden’s foreign policy – Biden himself, Sullivan, Sec. of State Antony Blinken and Sec. of Defense Lloyd Austin – may all be out of the Situation Room.
Greater understanding of both Harris’ foreign and domestic policy priorities will be filled in over the coming weeks, including with the first Harris-Trump debate currently set for Sept. 10. Given Trump’s warm embrace of isolationism, there is a growing sense abroad that only a Harris presidency stands between the world as it is and a very different – and more precarious – geopolitical trajectory.
Lindsay Newman is a geopolitical risk expert and columnist for GZERO.