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Europe's biggest concerns about Trump's return
Carl Bildt, former prime minister of Sweden and co-chair of the European Council on Foreign Relations, shares his perspective on European politics from Delhi, India.
Is Europe prepared for a Trump presidency?
And that's of course the big issue around every capital of Europe. There are two major issues and concerns.
One of them, obviously, the Russian war against Ukraine. What will be the US policy? Trump has promised to make peace within 24 hours. That's not going to happen. Putin is determined to continue this particular war. What would be the consequences then? Is Trump going to throw Ukraine under the bus, abandon support and thus abandon de facto concerns for the security of Europe? How would Europe react to that big issue?
Second big issue, tariffs. Trump has said that tariffs is the word that he loves most of all words. And he said that he's going to impose 10, 20% tariffs on all imports and far more on imports, of course, from China. That's going to have hugely negative effects for the global economy, also for the European economy, US economy and everyone else. What's going to be the European reaction to that? Counter tariffs or trying to line up with other global trade actors to preserve as much as we can, open up a big global trading system? Huge issues. No answer until by January 20th we know what the Trump administration is going to do. One conclusion, fairly obvious; we better buckle up.
Trump's America: How MAGA came out on top
On this episode of GZERO World, Ian Bremmer unpacks the implications of Donald Trump’s decisive election win, marking his historic return to office and the GOP's comprehensive control over government (assuming they hold onto the House). Despite polls suggesting a razor-close election, Trump won with strong support across critical swing states, including Pennsylvania, where voter shifts were significant even in traditionally Democratic strongholds like Philadelphia. Bremmer discusses Nov 5 and its wide range of implications with Vanderbilt historian Nicole Hemmer and Wall Street Journal correspondent Molly Ball. How did Trump’s return signal a change election? How much of it was driven by voters' discontent with inflation and immigration, and how much was simply the appeal of a populist alternative to the status quo.
The conversation highlights Trump’s longstanding opposition to globalism and his strategy to reshape America’s place on the world stage. With the GOP controlling the presidency, Senate, and likely the House, Trump's second term could bring sweeping policy changes, including a push to consolidate executive power and reduce judicial and institutional independence. Reflecting on the stakes, Molly Ball comments, “If there are not those barriers before him, what is he willing to do? What norms and traditions, not to say laws, is he willing to violate in order to pursue his goals?” Hemmer adds, “The erosion of representative democracy…has accelerated over the past 10 years,” emphasizing the risks of unchecked power. They also examine the Democratic Party’s struggle to resonate with working-class voters across racial lines and its internal debate over progressive versus centrist policies. With both parties facing pressure, there remains an enduring tension between America's democratic ideals and the growing appetite for anti-establishment reform.
GZERO World with Ian Bremmer, the award-winning weekly global affairs series, airs nationwide on US public television stations (check local listings).
New digital episodes of GZERO World are released every Monday on YouTube. Don't miss an episode: subscribe to GZERO's YouTube channel and turn on notifications (🔔).
Why voters went back to Trump, with Molly Ball and Nicole Hemmer
Listen: On the GZERO World podcast, Ian Bremmer dives into the far-reaching consequences of Donald Trump’s return to office as he becomes the first president since Grover Cleveland to serve non-consecutive terms. With strong wins across key swing states like Pennsylvania, Trump’s decisive victory reflects widespread voter frustration over issues like inflation and immigration and signals a major shift toward populism and anti-establishment sentiment. Historian Nicole Hemmer notes, “We’re witnessing the acceleration of democratic erosion, where checks and balances may no longer hold,” pointing to the dangers of unchecked power as Trump’s administration begins to take shape.
Joined by Vanderbilt historian Hemmer and Wall Street Journal reporter Molly Ball, Bremmer explores how Trump’s policies and approach could reshape American governance, especially with the GOP in control of the Executive, Senate, and likely the House. Ball highlights the risks involved, saying, “The real test will be whether the barriers that once existed to curb executive power still stand—or if they’re eroded by design.” They also reflect on the Democratic Party’s internal challenges, including how it must find ways to reconnect with working-class voters and navigate its ideological divide between progressive and centrist visions.
Subscribe to the GZERO World Podcast on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, or your preferred podcast platform, to receive new episodes as soon as they're published.
Donald Trump will take office with unprecedented power
Donald Trump’s 2024 election win gives him a powerful mandate from voters frustrated with government gridlock and bloated bureaucracy. That, along with the Supreme Court’s recent ruling on presidential power, means Trump will take office in January with unprecedented impunity to enact his agenda, radically remake the Federal government, and rewrite institutional norms. So what happens next? On GZERO World with Ian Bremmer, Molly Ball, senior political reporter at The Wall Street Journal, and Nicole Hemmer, a political historian specializing in conservative media, discuss the implications of a second Trump presidency and how he plans to fulfill promises to voters frustrated with the status quo. Trump will be reined in by the Constitution, but beyond that, will face little accountability, giving him near-total power to enact sweeping changes to democratic institutions.
“I think a lot of people are frustrated with the feeling that our institutions are so calcified and bottle-necked that they don’t allow anything to get done,” Balls says, “So I think there is a mandate for Trump to actually execute on his agenda.”
“I think the idea that the president has free rein does have more popular support than I think many liberals and proponents of rule of law would hope,” Hemmer adds, “The idea that there are levers that can be pulled that will suddenly snap into place an accountability regime, those levers don't exist.”
GZERO World with Ian Bremmer, the award-winning weekly global affairs series, airs nationwide on US public television stations (check local listings).
New digital episodes of GZERO World are released every Monday on YouTube. Don't miss an episode: subscribe to GZERO's YouTube channel and turn on notifications (🔔).
Republicans reclaim Senate control, with a unified government in reach
As projected, Republicans have won back control of the Senate, largely thanks to Democrats vacating seats in the red states of Ohio, Montana, and West Virginia. The victory gives them the power over nominations of judges and heads of the federal bureaucracy, as well as the ability to control legislation – positioning them to be a boon to Donald Trump’s policy goals.
Their victory comes as the GOP’s longtime leader in the Senate, Mitch McConnell, 82, steps down. Republicans are expected to hold elections for new leadership next week.
If current trends hold, Republicans look set to flip Senate seats in West Virginia, Ohio, Montana, and Pennsylvania, with Nevada still too close to call, giving them a firm 53- to 54-seat majority in Congress. Democrats never had much hope of holding on to West Virginia or Montana, meaning they knew they would likely lose the chamber. But depending on the final counts in the swing states of Nevada and Pennsylvania, President-elect Donald Trump’s party could have a comfortable margin.
With four Senate races still to call, the size of the GOP’s majority will matter greatly, especially since Republicans like Sens. Susan Collins of Maine and Lisa Murkowski of Alaska regularly break party lines.
Interestingly, as of the time of writing, Democratic Senate candidates are leading in Arizona, Nevada (slightly), and Wisconsin, and won in Michigan, all states that Trump won on the presidential level. If they all squeak out wins, and independent Sen. Angus King holds on to his seat in Maine, Democrats will have 47 seats — enough to filibuster comfortably and stymie some GOP legislation.
That becomes especially important if the GOP also wins the House, where they currently have the lead with 206 seats against the Democrats’ 191, with 38 races yet to be called.
US Election 2024: Map the Vote, post-election
The results are in, with a big win for Donald Trump and the Republican party. We've filled in the US map with the states and electoral votes won as of November 6th at 11 AM, according to AP News.
Yesterday, we offered you all a downloadable map to track the 2024 presidential election race and count the number of electoral votes earned by each candidate. You can still download the blank map below to fill it in as the final state races are officially called.
Print it or just download it to your mobile device to keep your own tally of the US electoral count per state as the results are called. Each state's number of electoral votes is shown below. Maine and Nebraska have a split system of electoral votes, so we've listed the two split votes for each to the right of the main map. The swing states are indicated with a patterned background. A presidential candidate needs at least 270 electoral votes to win the election.
Download the 2024 Election Map the Vote PDF
For more background, check our our explanation about the 15 key counties that could determine the outcome, and everything you need to know about the 7 swing states that could decide the election.
Make sure to check GZERO's ongoing election coverage to find out the latest, and join us on Wednesday at 11 am ET for our X Space day-after debrief to discuss the results.
US Election 2024: Map the Vote!
Europe's reaction to US election win: Gloom and despair
Carl Bildt, former prime minister of Sweden and co-chair of the European Council on Foreign Relations, shares his perspective on European politics from Stockholm, Sweden.
This is Carl Bildt in Stockholm. I’m going to do one question this morning.
What’s the mood on this side of the Atlantic after the US election?
Well, I think it can be summed up fairly shortly: gloom and despair in Brussels and Kyiv, jubilation in expectations in Budapest, and a determination to press on in Moscow and Tel Aviv. That’s roughly, it.
- Foreign policy tests lurk within the US election ›
- Ian Bremmer on the US election & crisis of democracy ›
- How the US election will change the world ›
- US election: GOP could win a Trump-led sweep ›
- The 2024 Paris Peace Forum faces a dysfunctional global order - GZERO Media ›
- UN's Rebeca Grynspan on the world’s debt crisis: Can it be solved? - GZERO Media ›
- Europe's biggest concerns about Trump's return - GZERO Media ›
Abortion and citizenship dominate ballot initiative successes
The Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Roe v. Wade in 2022 made abortion one of the marquee issues of this campaign season, and in 10 states, the issue showed up as ballot initiatives. In Arizona, Colorado, Maryland, Missouri, Montana, Nevada, and New York, voters chose to guarantee reproductive freedom, while in Florida, the measure – which needed 60% to pass – failed with 57% of the vote. South Dakotan, meanwhile, rejected a right to abortion, while Nebraska passed a prohibition on abortions after the first trimester.
The results do confirm abortion as the animating issue many Democrats thought it would be — but also indicate many voters trusted President-elect Donald Trump when he promised to leave it to the states. Arizona, Missouri, Montana, and Nevada all went for Trump while enshrining state rights to abortion, and Floridians voted overwhelmingly to do the same, even if the measure didn’t pass. Democratic promises of a national abortion guarantee didn’t cut the mustard.
Citizenship: The other big winners were a series of somewhat farcical measures that sought to make US citizenship a requirement to vote. Eagle-eyed readers will know that citizenship is already a requirement to vote, and in Kentucky, Missouri, North Carolina, Oklahoma, South Carolina, and Wisconsin, the approved changes are all but totally symbolic. Given pervasive concerns about immigration, however, the tactic may have helped drive voters to the polls in the crucial swing states of North Carolina and Wisconsin, clinching Trump’s victory.
In Iowa, the passed citizenship measure also allows 17-year-olds to vote in primary elections if they will be 18 before the general election. Nevada also passed a measure that will increase voter ID requirements overwhelmingly.
Marijuana: The cannabis legalization movement’s efforts went up in smoke, with all three states voting on recreational weed failing to pass the measures. Not terribly surprising in the deep red Dakotas, but take Florida’s results with a grain of salt. An overwhelming 56% majority of Floridians wanna “Pass the Dutchie ‘pon the left-hand side,” but state law requires 60% supermajorities for ballot measures.
Voting: The District of Columbia made uncharacteristic news by overwhelmingly passing a measure that allows independents to vote in primaries and established a ranked-choice system — common in Europe, but new to the US scene. Idaho and South Dakota, meanwhile, rejected a similar open primary and ranked-choice system, and Colorado looks likely to do the same. Open primaries weren’t on the ballot in Oregon, but voters rejected ranked-choice. In Alaska, a measure to repeal ranked-choice voting is neck-and-neck, too close to call at the time of writing.