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Pressure builds on Ukraine
The most hotly debated question about a possible second Donald Trump foreign policy: Would he simply abandon Ukraine and its fight to repel Russian invaders? We might now have an answer.
Hungary’s PM Viktor Orbán, a political ally of both Trump and Russia’s Vladimir Putin, announced after meeting with Trump in Florida yesterday that the former president “will not give a penny in the Ukraine-Russia war.” He told Hungary’s M1 TV channel that “if the Americans don’t give money, the Europeans alone are unable to finance this war. And then the war is over.”
Trump himself has yet to comment on this claim that he would end the conflict by forcing a Ukrainian surrender.
Putin has also added more pressure on Ukraine. On Monday, he called it “quite understandable” that Pope Francis has reportedly urged Ukraine’s leaders to find “the courage of the white flag” to negotiate with the Kremlin.
Does Ukraine have any cause for near-term optimism? Despite delays, a few trained Ukrainian pilots will likely have six US-made F16 aircraft ready to go by this summer. Their successful use against Russian forces could accelerate the pace of training and delivery. (A total of 45 F16s have been promised.)
These aircraft won’t win the war for Ukraine, but significant numbers of them will boost Ukraine’s offensive and defensive capabilities. The timing of their delivery is critical. You can read details on their possible battlefield importance here.
Why Super Tuesday still matters
Biden and Trump have swept the primaries so far, with Biden running unopposed by any major candidate and Trump beating his sole rival – Nikki Haley – in eight of the nine GOP primaries so far. Trump leads Haley by 201 delegates.
Wait, what’s a delegate? Americans don’t actually vote for presidents. Delegates do.
A ticked box for a candidate on a primary ballot is a vote for a delegate who supports that candidate and will vote for them at the party convention. In the primaries, candidates aim to gain enough delegates to clinch the nomination – 1,215 for the GOP and 1,986 for the Democrats this year.
Why does Super Tuesday matter? This year’s is worth tracking to see what is motivating voters. We’ll be watching to see if the trends in the early primaries continue like Democrats voting against Biden over US policy in Gaza, or if he continues to lose support among young Black and Hispanic voters.
SCOTUS gives Trump the green light. Trump’s legal woes were the greatest threat to his nomination until the Supreme Court ruled on Monday that the 14th Amendment does not give states the ability to bar Trump from the ballot and decided to hear his appeal on presidential immunity – delaying the DC Federal indictment until at least June.
With Trump free of any immediate threat of criminal indictment, he has the potential to be an even bigger threat to Biden, especially among moderates in swing states. Trump is currently seen as more trustworthy than Biden on economy, immigration, and crime, the biggest issues for moderate voters in swing states.
According to Eurasia Group’s US director Jon Lieber, Trump is looking like the new favorite to win the general election.
“It is hard not to look at the public opinion data, Biden‘s low approval ratings, and the fact that his biggest liability – his age – is only going to become more of an issue through the eight months of a difficult campaign, and not see that Trump is the favorite right now.”
The Supreme Court throws Trump a bone
The US Supreme Court agreed to rule on former President Donald Trump’s contention that he is immune from prosecution for his actions in office, a surprise decision that will delay Trump’s trial for allegedly seeking to overturn the 2020 election.
Trump’s lawyers say a president can only be held accountable for actions taken in office through impeachment in the House of Representatives and conviction in the Senate. Critics say that would essentially put any president above the law – as Judge Florence Pan elucidated by asking Trump’s lawyer whether under this theory a sitting president could assassinate a rival and remain immune (Trump’s lawyer said “yes,” by the way).
What happens now: The Supreme Court set a trial date of April 22, and froze all Trump’s DC court proceedings in the meantime. The months of delay may prevent a conviction in advance of the election, even if the Supreme Court rules against him. Polling shows moderate and independent voters would be less likely to back Trump if he is convicted, so delaying trial long enough could moot the question.Nikki Haley hangs tough
Despite being trounced by Donald Trump in her home state of South Carolina, former governor Nikki Haleyremains in the race to lead the GOP.
Positioning herself as a champion for traditional conservative principles, fiscal responsibility, and democracy, Haley said she would not quit “as a matter of principle”. In an impassioned press conference, she vowed to give Republican supporters "a real choice, not a Soviet-style election with only one candidate,” and cited polls that show her doing better than Trump against Biden.
What else could be keeping her in the race?
At 52, Haley’s is young enough to have her eye on a potential run in 2028, so building more name recognition can’t hurt (though earning a reputation for losing can’t help). Her campaign also has cash in reserve, including a $2 million boost after Trump attacked her husband’s military service. That said, Haley suffered a big setback Sunday when the Koch brothers -- major GOP donors -- announced they were halting funding for her campaign to focus on House and Senate races.
With all that in mind, remember Trump now owes the good people of New York nearly half a billion dollars for defrauding lenders.
Speaking of Trump’s legal troubles, even if Haley gets more shellackings on Super Tuesday, March 5, continuing to pick up a few delegates here and there could help her on the outside chance the Supreme Court deems Trump ineligible to run. Should Haley have the second largest number of delegates at the GOP convention, she would have a good argument for taking the torch.
Graphic Truth: Why are American elections so long?
Former President Donald Trump was the first major candidate to launch his campaign for the 2024 presidential election cycle – on Nov. 15, 2022, roughly two years before Election Day. The US puts no limits on the length of campaigns, which leaves the door open for massive amounts of campaign spending and has the potential to leave voters exhausted by the time they head to the polls.
Many other countries have laws restricting how long candidates can campaign. In Japan, campaigns do not officially start until 12 days before the election. The longest election campaign ever in Canada lasted 78 days in 2015. The Great White North now limits campaigns to 50 days at most.
Should the US follow their lead? Do American voters really need more than a year of campaigning to make up their minds about who will be president for the next four years?
Biden’s $130 million momentum
Were President Joe Biden to win reelection this November, he’d be 86 years old when finishing his second term. That’s part of why a startling 86% of Americans tell pollsters he’s too old to serve again.
But 86 is only one Biden number of note. Another is 130 million. That’s the total number of dollars his campaign has raised to date after raking in $42 million in the month of January alone. In fact, Biden’s $130 million haul is the most any Democrat has ever raised to this point in a campaign. (Donald Trump ended 2023 with $66 million and hasn’t yet reported January totals. He also has a few legal bills to pay.)
That’s why, whatever his popularity numbers, despite the flood of recent stories about possible Democratic Party alternatives to Biden, and whatever embarrassments next week’s Michigan primary may hold in store for a president whose firm support for Israel has angered much of that state’s sizeable Arab-American population, Biden won’t be easy to beat.
It’s also another reason we hold to our view that the only presidential polling questions that really matter are: Will you vote? Who will you vote for?
Democrats win back George Santos’ House seat
Democrats prevailed in New York’s snowy special election on Tuesday, narrowing the GOP’s razor-thin House majority and boosting Joe Biden's party ahead of the November presidential election.
Their candidate Tom Suozzi, a mainstay in Long Island politics, defeated the Republicans by firing up an angry base following the fiascos of disgraced former Republican Rep. George Santos. After voting for Biden in 2020, the district has voted red ever since. Regaining the seat gives Democrats some much-needed good news as Biden suffers from lackluster polling numbers.
For Republicans, the loss narrows their House majority to 219-213, limiting the breathing room their unruly House coalition will have to pass legislation.
Suozzi's campaign focused on immigration, Israel, inflation, and abortion. It remains to be seen how the district vote broke down, but it’s clear Suozzi’s moderate reputation, his push for stricter immigration rules, and a boatload of national and grassroots funding helped him win the day.
For China, Russia, and Israel, patience is a virtue in 2024
In January, Taiwan elected pro-independence candidate William Lai and, despite warnings, China’s response has been restrained, possibly influenced by Beijing’s belief that the leading US presidential candidate may treat Taiwan like a “discarded chess piece.”
That’s what Chinese Taiwan Affairs Office spokesperson Chen Binhua said would happen if Donald Trump won the US election in November after the former president refused to say whether he would defend Taiwan. His comments shook US ally Japan strongly enough that senior Kishida administration officials are reportedly contacting Trump’s camp to warn against cutting any kind of deal with China.
The view from China: The prospect of a friendlier – or at least more transactional – US administration might be good news for cross-strait relations in the short term. There's no point in rocking the boat in a way that might hurt either Trump’s prospects or what trust Beijing has built with the Biden administration over the last year (Joe Biden, after all, could win too).
Beijing isn’t alone in recognizing that a little patience could pay big dividends after November. In an interview with the Wall Street Journal on Sunday, Israeli far-right leader Itamar Ben-Gvir said Israel would have carte blanche under Trump 2.0.
“Instead of giving us his full backing, Biden is busy with humanitarian aid and fuel, which goes to Hamas,” he said. “If Trump [were] in power, the US conduct would be completely different.”
The view from the Kremlin is just as rosy. Former US Ambassador to Russia Michael McFaul has been arguing for months that Vladimir Putin is waiting for Trump to be re-elected to sue for peace in Ukraine because of how destabilizing another dose of Trump will be to NATO. Former US Ambassador to NATO Ivo Daaldermade a similar argument last week. And Trump did tell European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, “By the way, NATO is dead, and we will leave, we will quit NATO” in 2020.
GZERO also has its eye on North Korean leader Kim Jong Un. He and Trump left it in a bad place after their whirlwind romance in 2018 … but who knows what another love letter might spark?