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Syria after Assad
The Assad family no longer rules Syria. How did a brutally repressive regime rule with an iron fist for five decades only to collapse in two weeks? And after 14 years of bloody civil war, why was now the moment that a frozen conflict exploded into the global spotlight? The cost Syrians have already paid is greater than any nation could reasonably be expected to bear. Since 2011, more than 500,000 Syrians have died, including 200,000 civilians, and nearly six million refugees flooded neighboring Arab States and some European nations, most notably Germany.
But there’s no guarantee that the suffering will end just because the Assad regime has. To help make sense of these shocking past few weeks and the potential power vacuum to come is Kim Ghattas, a contributing editor at the Financial Times and author of Black Wave. “There was a decrepitude that installed itself within the regime's ranks and just a general exhaustion, life was not getting better for those who stood by the regime. And so I think there was a feeling that it was time to abandon him.”
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What's next for Syria after Assad, with Beirut-based journalist and author Kim Ghattas
Listen: How did Syria’s government rule with an iron fist for five decades, only to collapse in two weeks? And after 14 years of bloody civil war, why was now the moment that a frozen war exploded into the global spotlight? The cost Syrians have already paid is greater than any nation could reasonably be expected to bear. Since 2011, more than 500,000 Syrians have died, including 200,000 civilians, and nearly six million refugees flooded neighboring Arab States and some European nations, most notably Germany.
But what comes next? Nature abhors a vacuum, and so does geopolitics. Iran, Russia, Israel, the Gulf states, and the United States all have vested interests in Syria's future, a country that this week's GZERO World with Ian Bremmer Podcast guest calls "the crown jewel" of proxy influence in the Middle East. Here to help make sense of these shocking past few weeks and the potential power vacuum to come is Kim Ghattas, a contributing editor at the Financial Times and author of Black Wave.
Subscribe to the GZERO World Podcast on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, or your preferred podcast platform, to receive new episodes as soon as they're published.
A satellite image shows a Russian, Gorshkov-class frigate offshore in Tartus, Syria December 10, 2024.
What Russia and Iran have lost in Syria
Yesterday, we talked about why, among all the external powers involved in Syria, Turkey is probably the biggest immediate winner from the fall of Bashar Assad.
Now, we turn to the main losers. There are two, and they are big: Russia and Iran.
Both countries were huge backers of the Assad regime for decades, seeing Syria as the centerpiece of their Middle East policies. That’s why Tehran and Moscow intervened so heavily to support Assad around 2015 when his regime was on its back foot in Syria’s raging civil war.
But last week, as HTS-led militants met little resistance from Syrian government forces on the road to Damascus, both Russia and Iran decided to pull the plug. Now both are, for the time being, largely out of the picture in Syria.
Here’s what each country faces with the end of Assad.
Russia: military installations and clout
The Russian naval base at Tartus is Moscow’s only warm water port. For years, it enabled the Kremlin to project naval power into the Mediterranean and keep NATO on its toes in the region. The Russian airbase at Khmeimim, meanwhile, not only helped Moscow support military forces throughout the Middle East and Africa, but it also featured sophisticated air defenses that gave Russia a role in shaping the Israel-Syria standoff – whenever the IDF launched airstrikes against Iran-aligned targets in Syria, they had to at least be aware of Russia’s air defenses.
Now the fate of those facilities is unclear
Russia has reportedly evacuated some personnel, equipment, and weaponry, but there appears to be at least the possibility of some kind of agreement with HTS that permits Moscow to continue using the Tartus and Khmeimim facilities. As part of that, the Kremlin may seek to exploit its longstanding economic influence in Syria, as well as its potential to serve as a kind of counterbalance if the new government worries about excessive Turkish influence.
But the stakes are high. Russia will have a hard time replacing these facilities elsewhere in the region. US allies like Egypt or the Gulf states are unlikely to host Russian assets for fear of blowback from Washington. And while Russia has friends in Libya and Algeria, it would take years to construct facilities as sophisticated as what the Kremlin had in Syria.
Beyond the potential hard-power hits, Russia’s soft power has suffered too. Assad wasn’t the only embattled leader who leaned on Moscow for support in the face of severe pressure from the West. But Moscow’s inability, or unwillingness, to come to Assad’s aid in his final hours of need might raise alarm among the Maduros, Diaz Canels, Kims, and Lukashenkos of the world. The value of an alliance with Vladimir Putin just lost a few kopeks on the ruble.
Iran: a regional strategy in ruins
Whatever losses Russia has suffered, they pale next to the impact on Iran. Syria was the centerpiece of Iran’s once-powerful “Axis of Resistance” against Israel and the United States. The country was critical for Tehran’s Hezbollah proxies next door in Lebanon who got Iranian weapons and rear support via Syria while also profiting from the country’s smuggling markets and illicit narcotics industries. In addition, the Assad regime reliably bought tens of billions of dollars worth of oil that Iran couldn’t sell elsewhere because of Western sanctions.
And lastly, Syria was an extra 70,000 square miles of friendly territory between Iran and its regional arch-enemies in Israel, important for a Tehran that is perpetually worried about the prospect of Israeli strikes on its nuclear program or other military installations.
True, the new Syrian government, run for now by the supposedly reformed Sunni jihadists of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, or HTS, isn’t likely to be much friendlier to Israel. And the IDF has already destroyed much of the military hardware that Assad’s regime left behind, for fear of it falling into hostile hands. But HTS views Iran and Hezbollah as arch-enemies, making it harder for Tehran to picture an HTS-led Syria as a dependable deterrent against Israel.
Take all of that together with Israel’s decapitation and defanging of Hezbollah and Hamas – Iran’s two main proxies in the region – and Tehran’s regional clout is at its lowest ebb in years.
The Iranian government has tried to put a brave face on all of this, declaring earlier this week that it would “use all its regional and international capacities to stop the crimes of the Zionist regime against Syria.”
The trouble for Iran, like Russia, is that in one fell swoop, much of those regional and international capacities now lie in ruins.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu smiles as he prepares to testify in his trial on corruption charges at the district court in Tel Aviv on Dec. 10, 2024.
Israel strikes Syria, Netanyahu goes to court
Israel has launched over 350 airstrikes this week targeting naval bases, ships, ammunition depots, and weapon facilities across Syria, devastating the Syrian Army’s remaining capabilities, according to the UK-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights. Israel claims it has destroyed most of Syria’s strategic weapons stockpiles and says the strikes were designed to prevent weapons from falling “into the hands of extremists.”The UN has also raised alarms over the security of chemical weapons stockpiles that are currently unaccounted for.
“If this regime allows Iran to re-establish itself in Syria, or permits the transfer of Iranian weapons or any other weapons to Hezbollah, or if it attacks us … we will exact a heavy price,” Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu warned.
The IDF also confirmed that it seized a 155-square-mile buffer zone inside Syria to prevent attacks in the aftermath of Assad’s ouster. Qatar, Turkey, and Egypt have all condemned Israel’s actions while the US and UK support them, with UK Foreign Secretary David Lammy saying “there are legitimate security concerns for Israel, particularly in the context of a country that has housed ISIS, and al-Qaida.”
Back in Tel Aviv, Netanyahu took the stand on Tuesdayat his corruption trial. He’s facing charges of fraud, bribery, and breach of trust that will demand six hours a day of testimony, three days a week for several weeks, raising questions about Bibi’s ability to run the country. Netanyahu called the charges “an ocean of absurdness,” while protesters outside labeled him a “Crime Minister.” Verdicts are not expected before 2026 and could be appealed to the Supreme Court. If convicted, the 75-year-old Netanyahu could face several years in prison.
Rebel forces seized Mengh Airbase and the city of Tel Rifaat in the Aleppo countryside on December 1, 2024, following clashes with the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) and Syrian regime forces.
Syrian rebels clash with Kurds as Assad’s backers spring into action
In case anyone has forgotten just how complicated Syria’s civil war always was, the recent drama around Aleppo escalated on Monday as the Syrian National Army, a group backed by Turkey, attacked US-backed Kurdish groups near the city.
Meanwhile, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, or HTS, the formerly al-Qaida-linked Islamist group at the forefront of the recent rebel offensive in Aleppo, has reportedly ordered Kurdish militias to leave the area altogether and go eastward to Rojava, a de facto autonomous Kurdish area in northeastern Syria.
Aren’t the Kurds against the Assad regime, too? Yes, but that’s not the beef. HTS works with the Turkish proxies and relies on Ankara for political support in high-level negotiations to end the war. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is angling for an advantageous position on the war’s aftermath and said his “greatest wish” was “for the instability that has been going on for 13 years to end.”
For Turkey, that means both weakening Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and cutting the Kurds down to size, as it has long-standing problems with Kurdish separatists at home.
Don’t forget, Turkey is also a US ally — a NATO member, in fact — so urging its proxies to fight US proxies in a theatre where Russian forces also actively operate causes headaches in Washington. Russian warplanes bombed rebel-held areas of Aleppo on Monday, not far from where Turkish F-16s shot down a Russian Su-24 that strayed over the border in 2015. Quite an explosive position for a lame-duck US president.
Speaking of proxies… Iran-backed militias crossed into Syria from Iraq to help shore up Assad’s counterattack as well. Assad will be glad for that help as the Lebanon-based Iranian proxy group Hezbollah, once a major pillar of support for Assad’s regime, said Monday it would not deploy fighters to Syria right now. The group is still regrouping after getting mauled by Israel and is warily watching as last week’s ceasefire in that conflict appears to be breaking down already.
Where is the US in all this? Washington had reportedly held talks before the Aleppo offensive with the UAE about lifting sanctions on Syria in exchange for Assad distancing himself from Iran and Russia. That seems unlikely now that Assad’s back is against the wall and he needs all the help he can get. Beyond milquetoast calls for de-escalation, Washington has thus far kept its cards close to its vest.
Rebel factions successfully seized control of the city of Aleppo, Syria, on November 30, 2024, after intense clashes and fierce battles with Assad regime forces.
Syrian rebels reignite war, make advances in Aleppo
Anti-government forces opposed to Syrian President Bashar Assad launched a shock attack on the largest city, Aleppo, on Saturday. Amid the ongoing fighting, rebels have seized the city’s airport and military academy and struck the entrance of Aleppo University Hospital,killing 12 civilians and injuring 23 others. Led by the Salafi jihadi group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham — a terrorist organization with past ties to al-Qaida, now often but not always backed by Turkey – insurgents claim to control territory across Hama, Idlib, and Aleppo provinces. They are demanding that US-aligned Kurdish forces retreat from neighborhoods they hold in Aleppo.
Assad has ordered his forces to counterattack and met with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi in Damascus on Sunday. Russia also expressed support for its ally and claimed its forces in Syria had engaged with the rebels.
Why now? Israel’s destruction of Hezbollah in Lebanon seems to have helped tip the balance, according to Eurasia Group expert Emre Peker.
“HTS has been observing the shifting regional dynamics and agitating to take advantage of Assad’s relative weakness for months. With Russia preoccupied with Ukraine and Iran and its proxies effectively targeted by Israel, HTS felt the time was ripe to strike,” he said.
Peker elaborated that Ankara will back the rebels as long as their offensive also serves Turkish interests, whileRussia has lent what military support it can to Assad. “Erdogan will not want to oust Assad, rather to weaken him to both normalize Turkey-Syria relations and pave the way for a settlement to the 13-year-old Syrian civil war,” he said.
What about the US? The conflict creates a dilemma for Washington which under President Barack Obama supported rebel groups fighting Assad’s brutal dictatorship, but HTS’s fundamentalist roots are cause for concern. Asli Aydintasbas, a visiting fellow at the Brookings Institution, noted the quandary: “Should [the US] be cheering the opposition taking over Syria’s second-largest city Aleppo, or should they actually worry about the city falling under Islamist rule?”
So far,the Biden administration has distanced itself from the offensive, calling for de-escalation and a political solution – but we’re watching how long Washington can stay on the sidelines if the conflict escalates.
Skykline of Dubai, United Arab Emirates, on November 21, 2022 .
Will rabbi’s murder in the UAE amplify Iran-Israel tensions?
Israeli authorities condemned the murder of Rabbi Zvi Kogan, an Israeli-Moldovan 28-year-old whose body was discovered Sunday in the United Arab Emirates, as an“antisemitic terrorist attack.” They are investigating potential Iranian involvement, including Uzbek nationals with suspected links to Iran. In response, the Iranian embassy in the UAE said it “categorically rejects the allegations of Iran’s involvement in the murder of this individual.”
The UAE has arrested three suspects but has provided no further details. Should a link to Iran be established, it would likely renew calls for retaliation by Israel, and possibly set off a new cycle of escalation.
Meanwhile, Israeli military operations continue in both Gaza and Lebanon. The Israeli army ordered the evacuation of a suburb of Gaza City on Sunday after Hamas militants fired rockets at Israel,prompting a new wave of displacements in the enclave. Hamasclaimed late Sunday that a female Israeli hostage had been killed in Israeli operations in northern Gaza, but Israel said it was unable to verify the information.
In Lebanon, an Israeli airstrike targeted an army center, resulting in the death of one soldier and injuries to 18 others. Hezbollah retaliated on Sunday by launching 340 drones and rockets into Israel andclaimed to have also destroyed a total of 11 Israeli tanks in a series of ground battles. Talks over a potential cease-fire with Hezbollah have thus far been fruitless, but the Israeli ambassador to the US said a deal could be reached “within days” on Monday.
Donald Trump gestures after taking the oath of office during his first inauguration in Washington, DC, in January 2017.
Was Iran trying to assassinate Donald Trump?
The Justice Department on Friday charged three men with plotting to assassinate Donald Trump on the orders of the Iranian government.
“The charges announced today expose Iran’s continued brazen attempts to target US citizens, including President-elect Donald Trump, other government leaders and dissidents who criticize the regime in Tehran,” FBI Director Christopher Wray said Friday.
The alleged murder-for-hire scheme was unveiled as investigators interviewed an apparent Afghani Iranian government asset who told them that a contact in Iran’s Revolutionary Guard instructed him to create a plan to surveil and ultimately kill Trump. The plot was unsealed days after Trump prevailed in this week’s presidential election and is purportedly among other ongoing Iranian efforts to take out US government officials on American soil. Another alleged plot targeted Brooklyn-based human rights activist Masih Alinejad. (See Ian Bremmer’s interview with Alinejad in the wake of Mahsa Amini’s in-custody death in Iran from 2022 here).
Two of the three men have been arrested, but one, Farhad Shakeri, remains at large and is believed to be in Iran.
Why would Iran want to kill Trump? During the first Trump presidency, the US and Iran found themselves on the brink of war after Trump ordered a strike that killed Qassem Soleimani, one of Iran’s top generals. Trump also withdrew the US from the Iranian nuclear deal and reimposed economic sanctions on the Islamic Republic.
Iran likely dreads another Trump presidency, not only because the president-elect may pursue another “maximum pressure” strategy, but because he is likely to empower Israel to intensify its fight against Iranian proxies.