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An Iranian man walks past campaign posters for the parliamentary election in Tehran, Iran, February 27, 2024.

Majid Asgaripour/WANA (West Asia News Agency) via REUTERS

Iranian election turnout could set new record low

Iranians will go to the polls on March 1 to vote for a new parliament, which will serve for a four-year term. They will also vote for members of the Assembly of Experts, a body of clerics that is tasked with selecting a new Supreme Leader and serves a six-year term. However, given that the Islamic regime now carefully manages election outcomes to protect its grip on power, voter participation is expected to plumb new record lows. We asked Eurasia Group analyst Greg Brew to explain the significance of this week’s polls.

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A cleric who supports the Islamic Republic and the Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is sitting next to an Iranian flag during a rally to mark the 45th anniversary of the victory of Iran's 1979 Islamic Revolution on Azadi (Freedom) Avenue in western Tehran, Iran, on February 11, 2024.

Morteza Nikoubazl via Reuters Connect

It’s election season in Iran

Campaigning for Iran’s legislative election officially got underway on Thursday, with over 15,000 candidates vying for a seat. But will ordinary folks bother going to the polls on March 1?

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A woman walks past apartment blocks that were destroyed in a Russian missile strike, amid Russia’s attack on Ukraine, in Selydove near Avdiivka, Ukraine, February 19, 2024.

REUTERS/Thomas Peter

Hard numbers: Pro-Russia blogger commits suicide, UK nuclear missile test fails, Biden slashes student debt, China reaches US via Mexico

16,000: Andrey Morozov, a well-known pro-Russia military blogger, reportedly committed suicide after facing backlash from Russian propagandists for his Telegram post that said 16,000 Russian troops were killed in the battle for Avdiivka in eastern Ukraine. Moscow has gone to extreme lengths to obscure the scale of Russia’s losses in the war in Ukraine, and Morozov was accused of “slandering the Russian defense ministry.” Ukraine estimates that 17,000 Russian troops were killed fighting to take Avdiivka.

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Iran Supreme Leader holding off proxy groups.

Jess Frampton

Why Iran is pulling back from the brink

As Israel threatens an offensive into Rafah, its regional nemesis Iran is pulling itself away from the brink of war – and may even welcome a cease-fire in Gaza.

Since an attack by one of its Iraqi proxies killed three American servicemen in Jordan on Jan. 28, Iran has been signaling its allies in the Resistance Front to cool it and avoid actions that might prompt retaliation from Israel or the United States.

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Oil tanker Marlin Luanda has caught fire 60 nautical miles southeast of Aden in Yemen after a missile attack by Houthi fighters based in Yemen.

Friendly fire signals Houthis are shooting blind in the Red Sea

On Monday, Yemen’s Houthi rebels fired ballistic missiles at a ship bound for Iran, the militia’s main supporter. Would the Houthis really target their patrons in Tehran?

Almost certainly not. There’s no evidence to suggest a rupture between Iran and the Houthis, who have been attacking ships in the Red Sea in hopes of increasing global pressure on Israel to stop its assault on Gaza.

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US-Iran tensions complicate Biden's Middle East strategy
US-Iran tensions complicate Biden's Middle East strategy | Ian Bremmer | Quick Take

US-Iran tensions complicate Biden's Middle East strategy

Ian Bremmer's Quick Take: Hi, everybody. Ian Bremmer here and a Quick Take to kick off your week. We are still very much focused on the Middle East. That is the top priority. Tony Blinken, Secretary of State, for his fifth trip to the Gulf since October 7th, those horrible terrorist attacks, Ukraine very far down the priority list compared to the engagement the Middle East is presently getting. It certainly feels that way. But that's what we're focusing on.

And the big issue is the American military response to that nightmare scenario that came to pass when US servicemen and women, dozens injured, three killed in Iranian proxy attacks on the Jordan-Syria border. The United States had to respond militarily, did respond militarily, but they also did not want to precipitate an Iranian war with the United States. So they tried to have their way on both sides of the equation and probably end up getting nothing that they want. What do I mean by that? Well, the United States did attack direct Iranian military assets, Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps military capabilities on the ground in Syria and Iraq, but also telegraphed that very clearly, very publicly, for about five days before they started the attacks, which meant that proxy leaders and most importantly, Iranian leaders were able to get out of Dodge and potentially protect the most sensitive equipment information from those US strikes.

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President Joe Biden attends the return of the remains of the three slain US soldiers — Sgt. Breonna Alexsondria Moffett, Sgt. William Jerome Rivers, and Sgt. Kennedy Ladon Sanders — at Dover Air Force Base on Friday.

USA Today Network via Reuters

US strikes back after deadly drone attack

Nearly a week after a drone attack killed three American service members at a small US base in Jordan, the US responded late Friday by launching strikes against more than 85 targets in Syria and Iraq. The Pentagon blames the Iran-backed Islamic Resistance in Iraq for the deadly drone attack.

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U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin testifies before a Senate Appropriations Committee hearing on Capitol Hill in Washington, U.S., October 31, 2023.

REUTERS/Kevin Lamarque

The US is being coy about how it will handle Iran

Defense Sec. Lloyd Austin on Thursday signaled that the US was on the verge of retaliating against Iran-backed militias over the deaths of three service members in Jordan. But the Pentagon chief also repeatedly emphasized that Washington will aim to avoid taking actions that could raise the already feverish temperature in the region amid the Israel-Hamas war.

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