We have updated our Privacy Policy and Terms of Use for Eurasia Group and its affiliates, including GZERO Media, to clarify the types of data we collect, how we collect it, how we use data and with whom we share data. By using our website you consent to our Terms and Conditions and Privacy Policy, including the transfer of your personal data to the United States from your country of residence, and our use of cookies described in our Cookie Policy.
{{ subpage.title }}
Israeli police search the scene of an explosion near a branch of the US embassy in Tel Aviv early Friday.
Deadly drone attack hits Tel Aviv ahead of Bibi’s visit to Washington
The Houthi militia in Yemen claimed responsibility for a drone attack in Tel Aviv early Friday that killed at least one person and wounded 10 others. The drone crashed into an apartment building not far from the US Embassy in Israel’s second-largest city.
This was the first time the Iran-backed group carried out a lethal attack in Israel – and it involved an Iran-made drone. The Israeli military is investigating how the drone evaded its defense systems. The drone was detected, but it wasn’t intercepted due to an “error,” said Israeli military spokesperson Rear Adm. Daniel Hagari.
The war in Gaza has fueled major tensions between Israel and Tehran, as well as its proxies in the region. For months, there have been concerns that Israel could go to war in Lebanon with the Iran-backed militant group Hezbollah. Friday’s drone attack occurred not long after Israel announced it killed a senior Hezbollah commander in southern Lebanon, and the fatal incident will likely raise further concerns that the war in Gaza risks spiraling into a much broader, regional conflict.
Meanwhile, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is preparing to visit the US next week to address Congress. Though the US and Israel remain close allies, Netanyahu’s prosecution of the war in Gaza has made him unpopular with some Democratic lawmakers in Washington – particularly progressives – and he has frequently butted heads with the Biden administration.
The fact that the Knesset on Thursday overwhelmingly voted in favor of a resolution rejecting the establishment of a Palestinian state – a move indicative of growing Israeli opposition to a two-state solution, a goal the US has pushed for decades – could also lead to some awkward conversations for Netanyahu in Washington.
Suspended Jewish Columbia and Barnard students participate in a press conference outside the president of Columbia University’s house on April 23, 2024, in Manhattan, New York.
Hard Numbers: Columbia punishes deans, Iran boosts missile output, UN accuses Rwanda of fighting in Congo, Colombia protects the forest
3: Columbia University on Monday removed three deans from their positions over antisemitic text messages they exchanged in a group chat during a late-May event about Jewish life on campus in the wake of protests about Oct. 7 and the war in Gaza. The three have been placed on indefinite leave. For our complete on-the-ground coverage of the upheaval at Columbia this spring, led by GZERO’s Riley Callanan, see here.
2: Iran has been ramping up its output of ballistic missiles at two key production facilities, according to satellite imagery. Tehran’s most prominent buyers of the missiles include the Houthi rebels in Yemen, Hezbollah paramilitaries in Lebanon and, of course, Vladimir Putin’s Russia, which signed a missile deal with Iran in 2022.
3,000-4,000: A new UN report alleges that 3,000-4,000 regular Rwandan Army forces are fighting alongside M23 rebels in the eastern Democratic Republic of Congo, a serious allegation that follows years of accusations that Rwanda is deliberately destabilizing its neighbor. Alarmingly, the report also implicates Uganda — which had deployed a force to fight the rebels as part of a regional military intervention to support Congo — in providing support for M23, essentially playing both sides of the conflict.
305: Deforestation in Colombia fell by more than a third last year, to just 305 square miles, the lowest figure on record. The decline comes atop a 20% fall the previous year. About half of the deforestation was in the Colombian Amazon. President Gustavo Petro has sought to rein in corporate access to the rainforest, but orders from local guerilla groups to stop cutting down trees have also helped. Experts warn that despite progress, droughts caused by the hot-weather El Niño weather pattern this year could push up deforestation.
A supporter of Iranian President-elect Masoud Pezeshkian is holding up an electoral poster while participating in a ceremony with Pezeshkian's presence at the Khomeini (Iran's Late Leader) shrine in southern Tehran, Iran, on July 6, 2024. Former reformist Member of Parliament, Masoud Pezeshkian, is being elected as the new President of Iran.
Will President-elect Pezeshkian reform Iran?
Iran’s incoming president is 69-year-old heart surgeon and former Health Minister Masoud Pezeshkian, a moderate who has called for “constructive interaction with the world.”
Pezeshkian defeated hardline conservative Saeed Jalili in Friday’s runoff election, which saw a historically low turnout of just under 50%, though the second round attracted more voters than the first. He promised to ease Iran’s compulsory hijab laws and internet censorship, as well as revive talks over the 2015 nuclear deal to lift crippling economic sanctions.
Global Reaction. A number of world leaders, including those of China, Russia, Saudi Arabia, and India formally congratulated Pezeshkian. The US State Department remains skeptical, however, stating that Iran’s elections were “not free or fair” and that Washington has “no expectation these elections will lead to fundamental change in Iran’s direction or more respect for the human rights of its citizens.”
Could Pezeshkian bring real reform? His room to maneuver is limited by the conservative Iranian establishment, which invests all true power in the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps, the Guardian Council, and ultimately Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.
On foreign policy, Eurasia Group Middle East Analyst Gregory Brew foresees little change. “Iran’s strategic stance and its approach to the Israel-Hamas conflict is unlikely to shift as a result of this election. Pezeshkian will pursue nuclear negotiations with the US, though substantive progress is unlikely before the US election.”Iranian women queue to vote at a polling station in a snap presidential election to choose a successor to Ebrahim Raisi following his death in a helicopter crash, in Tehran, Iran June 28, 2024.
Iranian majority votes to ignore election, leading to runoff
Low voter turnout was expected, and many believed Pezeshkianwould come in first but fail to win the 50% majority needed to prevail outright. Experts like Eurasia Group analyst Gregory Brew anticipated that Pezeshkian would then meet either Jalili or Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf in a runoff.
“Events bore out this expectation,” says Brew, “but with a few interesting twists.” First, voter turnout was even lower than feared – at just 40%. Second, Jalili and Qalibaf combined only won 13 million votes, far less than the 19 million Raisi had in 2021.
Round two looms. If Jalili wins in the second round on July 5, he would simply be another ideological hardliner hostile to the West with “retrograde views on important social issues.” This, says Brew, will ensure “dissatisfaction with the regime increases among ordinary Iranians.”
Pezeshkian would be weak and be easy for the regime to undermine, Brew explains, but “the Supreme Leader has always distrusted and feared the reformists and it’s hard to see him tolerating a reformist president, especially with a succession so close.”
In fact, neither candidate is ideal for the regime’s leadership. “While Jalili is ideologically suitable,” says Brew, “he doesn't appear to have much support from inside the regime.”
Still, one of them will prevail. “I'd say that the odds favor Jalili right now, especially as turnout is going to be even lower next week than it was for Friday's election,” says Brew, noting that if voters do align with Pezeshkian, it would just be to prevent a Jalili government.
Presidential candidate Masoud Pezeshkian speaks during a campaign event in Tehran, Iran, June 19, 2024.
What are the chances of a “reformist” leading Iran?
Iranians head to the polls on Friday to vote in a surprisingly competitive election that could see a reformist and more West-friendly candidate assume the presidency. The election season began in June when the Guardian Council approved six candidates in the wake of President Ebrahim Raisi’s death, but now only four remain, with three front-runners: conservative hardliners Saeed Jalili and Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf and reformist Masoud Pezeshkian.
The regime now wants Qalibaf or Jalili to bow out so as not to split the conservative vote, which would benefit Pezeshkian, who appears to be leading. But neither man is willing to step down. The polls favor Jalili, while Qalibaf, a former military officer, has the backing of the influential IRGC, highlighting the deepening factionalism within the conservative regime.
The divided conservative vote could very well result in Friday’s election failing to produce a clear winner, which would lead to a runoff, likely between Pezeshkian and a conservative.
What could most impact the vote? High voter turnout is key to Pezeshkian prevailing, but amid rising voter apathy, turnout is expected to be about 50%. In past elections, conservative voters have gone to the polls in mass numbers to rally behind their candidate, whereas reformist and disillusioned Iranians, Pezeshkian’s voter base, usually stay home in protest.
What would a Pezeshkian-led Iran look like? Likely not very different. Eurasia Group Iran expert Gregory Brew says that even if Pezeshkian wins, “The parliament, judiciary, military, and other parts of the regime will still be dominated by hard-liners — in that sense, Friday's election or next week’s runoff won’t change much.”
The Iranian flag flutters in front of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) organisation's headquarters in Vienna, Austria, June 5, 2023.
Might Iran go soft on the West?
Iran’s Guardian Council approved six candidates – five hardliner conservatives and one seemingly safe reformist – earlier this month to run in a June 28 snap election to replace President Ebrahim Raisi, who was killed in a plane crash last month. The council’s inclusion of reformist Masoud Pezeshkian surprised many, but even more shockingly, he has proven an unlikely but fierce competitor against prominent right-wing opponents. Pezeshkian is drawing support from younger voters and disillusioned Iranians who, in years past, boycotted elections. Meanwhile, the conservative vote is being split among the five other candidates.
On the campaign trail, Pezeshkian has shared his intention of improving relations with the US – namely by reviving the 2015 nuclear deal – and softening Iran’s hijab law, both of which would constitute dramatic shifts in policy. Although his growing popularity worries leaders in Iran’s far-right government, even a reformist president is unlikely to bring about much change within the country’s hard-right government – especially a budding friendship with the US.
“If the challenge of winning the election seems large,” says Eurasia Group’s Iran expert, Gregory Brew, “the even greater challenge would be governing effectively as a reformist president – a challenge previous Iranian presidents, such as Mohammed Khatami and Hasan Rouhani, have largely failed to overcome.”
So could the US have a new friend in Iran? Short answer: probably not.
Pezeshkian faces a tough battle to beat hardline conservatives (and also Iran’s most dedicated voters), and the greatest opposition does not come from the people, but the Iranian government.
Thailand's newly appointed Foreign Minister Maris Sangiampongsa reacts during a family photo session with new cabinet ministers at the Government House in Bangkok, Thailand, May 7, 2024.
US ally Thailand moves forward with BRICS membership
On Sunday, Thailand said Foreign Minister Maris Sangiampongsa had delivered an official letter to his Russian counterpart, Sergei Lavrov, outlining Bangkok’s intention to join the BRICS alliance, which has gained a reputation as an anti-Western forum in recent years. Thailand holds non-NATO major ally status with the United States, but Maris said it hopes joining the Chinese- and Russian-led group will help it “play a more active role in South-South cooperation.” Things may not come together by the next BRICS summit in October, but Bangkok’s bid is likely to work out.
Is Washington worried? Hardly. For all its ambitions of pushing the dollar out of its dominant trade position and aligning the Global South to mutual political goals, BRICS can’t match actions to rhetoric. The organization doesn’t even have a permanent secretariat to coordinate its activities, and its members often don’t see eye to eye.
Thailand isn’t the first US ally to join (Brazil was), and in January, BRICS expanded to include another major non-NATO ally, Egypt, as well as close US partners Ethiopia, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE.
So what’s the point? The impotence of BRICS makes joining a low-stakes gambit with some potential upside. It might help Thailand curry favor with China, its largest trade partner and most worrying military threat. But, if not, what has Bangkok really lost?Mehrdad Bazrpash, an Iranian politician and the Minister of Roads and Urban Development, is speaking to the media at a media center in the Iranian Interior Ministry building after registering as a Presidential elections candidate during the last day of candidates' registration for Iran's early Presidential elections, in Tehran, Iran, on June 3, 2024.
Hard Numbers: Iran’s candidates, Stronach’s sex crime charges, Bulgarians vote again, US border crossings drop
6: Iran’s Guardian Council — an unelected body of religious clerics — has approved six candidates to run in elections scheduled for June 28, after President Ebrahim Raisi was killed in a helicopter crash last month. Five of the candidates come from the hardline conservative camp, one is a reformer, and former President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad was barred from running again.
5: Austrian-Canadian billionaire and politician Frank Stronach has been charged with five sexual assault crimes dating between the 1980s and 2023. The 91-year-old’s lawyers denied any impropriety, and police are withholding details about the charges, which include rape, indecent assault on a female, sexual assault, and forcible confinement.
6: Bulgarians went to the polls for the sixth time in just three years on Sunday as the European Union’s poorest member struggles to form a stable government in the wake of anti-corruption protests. No single party is expected to gain a majority, which will continue to inhibit Bulgaria’s development and block access to funds from Brussels.
3,100: US Customs and Border Patrol apprehended roughly 3,100 migrants crossing the border with Mexico on Friday, reflecting a drop of about 20% from just days before. It may be an early indication that Biden’s new border crackdown, which went into effect last week, is working.