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Trump x Khamenei nuclear duet
The US and Iran are holding nuclear talks again: What kind of song and dance is preventing a new deal? #PUPPETREGIME
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An elderly man holds an Iranian flag during an anti-U.S. and anti-Israel rally marking the anniversary of the U.S. embassy occupation outside the former U.S. embassy in downtown Tehran, Iran, on November 3, 2024, two days before the U.S. Presidential elections.
Khamenei’s “teeth-breaking” threat and UNICEF’s warning for Gaza
Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khameneivowed a “teeth-breaking” response to recent Israeli strikes on Iranian military sites after Israel admitted striking targets in the Islamic Republic.
Speaking to students on Saturday, just before Monday’s 45th anniversary of the 1979 seizure of the US embassy in Tehran, Khamenei emphasized Iran’s military and political readiness to counteract what he called the “arrogance” of both Israel and the United States. Kamal Kharrazi, a top adviser to Khamenei, alsowarned that Iran might reconsider its nuclear doctrine if faced with an “existential threat,” stating it is currently capable of producing nuclear weapons.
Meanwhile,UNICEF warned on Saturday that the population of northern Gaza, particularly children, faces an “imminent risk of dying” due to disease, famine, and bombing campaigns. Executive Director Catherine Russell reported deadly strikes over the weekend in Jabalia, where at least 50 children were killed as they sought shelter in targeted buildings.
The WHO has also reported new strikes onhospitals and health centers, which the Israel Defense Forces say are used to shelter Hamas terrorists. In response, the IDFissued a statement that it was “focused on dismantling Hamas’ military capabilities while adhering to international law and minimizing civilian harm.”
Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei speaks during a meeting with the families of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps in Tehran, Iran May 19, 2024.
Iranian president’s death complicates a “Supreme” problem
While Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi’s death may not have much immediate impact on Iran’s foreign policy – Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei runs that business himself – it could shake things up for a more fundamental question: Who’s going to run the place after the 85-year-old Khamenei dies?
Some background: The Supreme Leader is chosen by an opaque council of high-ranking clerics. While the president, elected in a heavily managed popular vote, doesn’t have direct say, the presidency is still a powerful and public platform.
Raisi, an arch-conservative ally of Khamenei’s, was installed to sideline reformist figures who, in recent years, have gained popularity as the Iranian revolution struggles to find new sources of legitimacy after 45 years in power. Raisi himself was even considered a possible successor to the Big Man.
“With Raisi gone, the hardliners lose one of their key assets,” says Eurasia Group’s top Iran analyst, Gregory Brew. “That creates more uncertainty about the regime’s ability to smoothly manage the transition amid broad public discontent, an anemic economy, and a burgeoning regional crisis.”
The first signs of how Khamenei plans to deal with this will come soon – a new presidential election must be rigg-, er, held within 50 days.
An Iranian man walks past campaign posters for the parliamentary election in Tehran, Iran, February 27, 2024.
Iranian election turnout could set new record low
Iranians will go to the polls on March 1 to vote for a new parliament, which will serve for a four-year term. They will also vote for members of the Assembly of Experts, a body of clerics that is tasked with selecting a new Supreme Leader and serves a six-year term. However, given that the Islamic regime now carefully manages election outcomes to protect its grip on power, voter participation is expected to plumb new record lows. We asked Eurasia Group analyst Greg Brew to explain the significance of this week’s polls.
What is the position of parliament in the Iranian system?
Iran’s constitution delineates legislative powers to the parliament, which also oversees the budget and cabinet appointments. However, parliament’s power is constricted by Iran’s powerful executive branch, particularly the Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, as well as the Guardian Council, a small group of clerics and senior figures who sign off on all legislation and determine who is eligible to run for office. Given these restrictions, parliament is regarded by many Iranians as a rubber-stamp committee with little real control over government policy, a feeling that has only grown more pronounced since 2020, when elections were stage-managed by the Guardian Council to ensure hardliners dominated parliament. Authorities also carefully controlled the 2021 presidential election to ensure Ebrahim Raisi, an arch conservative with close ties to Khamenei and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), was elected. (The next presidential election will be in 2025, when Raisi is expected to run for reelection.)
What steps is the regime taking to control the election outcome?
As with 2020, the Guardian Council has taken a heavy hand in vetting candidates: Out of the thousands of applications, many were disqualified from running for office, including most prominent reformists and moderates. This ensures the new parliament will remain dominated by hardliners with a strong affiliation with Khamenei, the IRGC, and the conservative clerical faction.
Is the sense of public alienation toward the regime growing?
Dissatisfaction with the regime is currently very high, owing to a variety of factors that include a weak economy, high inflation, widespread corruption, and ongoing and intensifying political repression. The fact that elections are now carefully managed by authorities has produced a broad view that they are sham affairs: as a result, participation in elections has dropped from over 70% to roughly 50%. It is expected to be even lower this year, perhaps the lowest on record. While the regime likely retains the support of some of the population, most Iranians view the Islamic Republic as an illegitimate government.
So, is there a chance of unrest around the vote?
Despite this widespread dissatisfaction, the circumstances don’t seem conducive to the kind of public protest that occurred in 2022, when thousands took to the streets following the death of Mahsa Amini at the hands of the morality police. The force of the government crackdown in response to those protests and the ongoing efforts to suppress new displays of discontent, as well as the generally bleak outlook for political reform, means most Iranians are averse to taking to the streets. Instead, citizens will express their dissatisfaction by staying at home and not participating in elections.
How worried is the regime about its legitimacy?
The Islamic Republic has held power for more than forty years. It possesses a large and sophisticated security apparatus and a toolkit of repressive measures that it uses to suppress public dissatisfaction. It is a government has proven, time and again, that it is willing to kill its own people in large numbers in order to remain in power.
That said, the regime has reasons to be worried about its position. Its credibility on a number of important issues, from the economy to terrorism, water scarcity and inflation, is in serious question. It is defined by self-dealing, with more and more of the nation’s wealth flowing to a small elite, particularly senior officers in the IRGC. Millions of Iranians are trying to leave the country, particularly educated members of the middle class.
What are the prospects for political change in the mid-to-long term?
The regime is confident it can hold on to power. It’s fixated on a potential succession crisis, given that Khamenei is eighty-four and in poor health, and the reason for stage-managed elections has been to ensure there’s a smooth transition from the current leader to a Khamenei 2.0. That’s why reformists and moderates have been squeezed out, with even former president Hasan Rouhani denied the opportunity to run for a seat on the Assembly of Experts. There’s virtually no chance the regime permits any reforms or positive political changes, at least not until after succession.
But this policy comes with its own dangers. The Iranian public appears unwilling to resume protests for the moment, but that could change. By refusing to reform, the regime has further undermined its legitimacy, and the transition to a new, similarly conservative Supreme Leader will only harden public dissatisfaction. Iran may be quiet, but it’s a powder keg that could go off at any time.
Edited by Jonathan House, Senior Editor at Eurasia Group
A cleric who supports the Islamic Republic and the Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is sitting next to an Iranian flag during a rally to mark the 45th anniversary of the victory of Iran's 1979 Islamic Revolution on Azadi (Freedom) Avenue in western Tehran, Iran, on February 11, 2024.
It’s election season in Iran
Campaigning for Iran’s legislative election officially got underway on Thursday, with over 15,000 candidates vying for a seat. But will ordinary folks bother going to the polls on March 1?
The 2020 election saw Iran’s lowest-ever turnout of 42%, and higher ups in Tehran are worried about an even more embarrassing figure next month. The regime’s legitimacy has suffered so much, according to Eurasia Group Iran expert Greg Brew, that there’s talk of straight-up fudging the numbers, which has not been common practice until now.
But given that election authorities sidelined all but a handful of reformist politicians – not to mention the violent crackdown on protesters in the wake of Mahsa Amini’s death – many voters are likely to stay home to express their discontent.
The real question: Who will succeed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, the real center of power, who’s now 84 years old? There’s no clear answer, but Brew says the establishment’s goal in these elections is “to maintain hardliner control over the key aspects of government to create as much consistency as possible, so that when a succession crisis happens it can be handled with a minimum of disruption.”Podcast: Iran's role in the Gaza war: is escalation inevitable?
Listen: With all eyes on Israel’s escalating war with Hamas, what’s Iran’s next move?
Iran gets around. In Southern Lebanon, Iran-backed Hezbollah fighters have a missile arsenal that dwarfs Hamas’ rocket supply and could overwhelm Israel’s famed “Iron Dome” air defense. The Pentagon recently redirected the USS Eisenhower aircraft carrier and its strike group of destroyers to the Middle East instead of the eastern Mediterranean, ready to intercept missile and drone strikes by Iran-backed Houthi militias in Yemen aimed at Israel. Days later, American F-16 jets carried out airstrikes in Eastern Syria on facilities used by Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard and its proxies, in retaliation for a barrage of recent rocket and drone attacks against American forces in Iraq and Syria.
But there’s a big difference between skirmishes with Iran proxy forces and an all-out US-Israel-Iran war. So how close is Israel to all-out war with Iran...and how will Israel’s ongoing invasion of Gaza up the ante? What are the implications for Israel's Western allies? On the GZERO World podcast, Ian Bremmer asks Iran expert Karim Sadjadpour, Senior Fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for Peace.
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Iran nuclear deal now a toss-up, says International Crisis Group expert
So, is the Iran nuclear deal 2.0 finally happening, or not?
Ali Vaez, Iran project director at the International Crisis Group, says he stopped making predictions months ago. Still, he puts the odds now at 50/50.
Failure is not an option for the Iranians, Vaez tells Ian Bremmer in a GZERO World interview, because they've survived crippling US economic sanctions but will never thrive under them. Also, if the crisis escalated, additional UN sanctions will snap back.
The Iran nuclear deal has also become too big to fail for the Americans, he says. Why? Iran is closer to the verge of acquiring nukes than it's been in 20 years.Vaez explains that Iran's breakout time — how long it'll take the Iranians to enrich enough uranium for a single nuclear weapon — is now less than two weeks. It was more than 12 months when former US President Donald Trump took office.
Biden, he thinks, could pay a political price for restoring the agreement in the November midterm elections — but allowing Iran to become a nuclear-armed state on his watch could hurt the president even more.
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Biden & Khamenei's nuclear song and dance
The US and Iran both seem interested in reviving the 2015 nuclear deal, but there's one simple problem they just can't get past. See the whole song and dance on PUPPET REGIME.
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