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US-Ukraine policy under Trump would be similar to Biden's
Harvard Kennedy School’s Stephen Walt suggests that there’s not as much daylight between Biden and Trump as people might think when it comes to US policy towards Ukraine.
As with Trump, Walt argues, “Biden would also be trying to end this war sooner rather than later.” But where Biden would be looking to support Ukraine in securing the best possible deal in a peace arrangement, Trump might abandon Ukraine, forcing them to rely more on European support for security.
"Trump is fundamentally a nationalist and unilateralist” Walt tells Bremmer in a wide-ranging interview, “…whereas Biden is very much a globalist or internationalist."
Watch full episode here: How the US election will change the world
Catch GZERO World with Ian Bremmer every week at gzeromedia.com/gzeroworld or on US public television. Check local listings.
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Biden and Trump's Middle East policies are "almost identical" - Harvard's Stephen Walt
In a candid discussion with Ian Bremmer, Harvard Kennedy School professor Stephen Walt highlights the striking similarities between the Biden and Trump administrations' Middle East policies. "It's hard to see a big change between the Trump administration's approach to the Middle East and what the Biden administration was doing up until October 7." Walt notes that Biden's actions have mirrored Trump's, from failing to fulfill promises like reopening the US Consulate in Jerusalem to continuing Trump's approach with the Abraham Accords.
Despite occasional frustrations and ongoing conflicts in the region, both administrations have maintained strong support for Israel, with little indication of significant policy shifts. Walt also emphasizes the cautious approach of both presidents regarding Iran, suggesting that neither side desires a full-scale conflict, given the complexities and potential repercussions in the volatile Middle East. “For the United States to get involved in yet another large Middle East war seems to me is contrary to our interests, but it's also contrary to most of Donald Trump's instincts.”
Watch full episode here: How the US election will change the world
Catch GZERO World with Ian Bremmer every week at gzeromedia.com/gzeroworld or on US public television. Check local listings.
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How the US election will change the world
What role will foreign policy play in the upcoming US presidential election? “More than it usually does,” says Harvard Kennedy School’s Stephen Walt in an interview on GZERO World with Ian Bremmer. “Partly because the economy doesn't seem to be helping Biden as much as it should be, partly because it's hard to look at Biden's foreign policy and tout a lot of big success stories."
In a wide-ranging interview comparing US foreign policy under a second Biden or Trump term, Walt suggests that they may not be as different as people expect. “On a bunch of big issues, the daylight between him and Biden just isn't that great.” It may come as little surprise that Bremmer disagrees.
But Walt says this is especially true in areas like China policy, where Biden's approach has been refined and continued. "The Biden people refined the Trump approach in a number of ways—focused it very much on high-tech—but have if anything, doubled down on the policies that Trump adopted starting in 2017."
And while Walt certainly acknowledges an array of crucial differences between Trump and Biden, he argues that both second administrations may have similar outcomes in areas like the Middle East and Ukraine. That said, he makes clear that while Trump's second term may not drastically change US foreign policy, it could lead to a less supportive stance towards Europe and NATO. "Trump is fundamentally a nationalist, fundamentally a unilateralist, whereas Biden is very much a globalist or internationalist, and that's a key difference.”
Catch GZERO World with Ian Bremmer every week at gzeromedia.com/gzeroworld or on US public television. Check local listings.
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Biden vs Trump foreign policy: Political scientist Stephen Walt weighs in
Listen: On this episode of GZERO World Podcast, Ian Bremmer and Harvard Kennedy School Professor Stephen Walt discuss foreign policy differences between a second term for Biden or Trump on issues like China, Ukraine, and the Middle East. Walt argues that American foreign policy under a second Trump term wouldn’t be so different from the last four years under Biden. “The daylight may not be as great as people think,” Walt tells Ian. For instance, Walt says, “It's hard to see a big change between the Trump administration's approach to the Middle East and what the Biden administration was doing up until October 7." On China, Ukraine and the Mideast, Walt doesn’t see a big difference between the last two US presidents.
That hasn’t been Ian Bremmer’s view, to say the least. Well, that sounds like the makings of a good discussion. So let’s have it.
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Ian Explains: Will foreign policy decide the 2024 US election?
How much does foreign policy matter in a US presidential election? This year, more than usual.
When pollsters started asking Americans in 1948 what they viewed as the “most important problem” facing the country, foreign policy and international security dominated.
Looking ahead to the 2024 presidential election, Biden has managed to turn a Covid-ravaged economy around, with growth pegged at about three percent per quarter. Wages are going up, unemployment is at an all-time low and the stock market is coming on strongly. By every economic indicator, Biden should be surging. And yet, by every political indicator, he’s floundering.
Biden’s fate in November may hinge on whether he can convince a skeptical electorate that the economy is doing as well as it is...actually doing. But Americans’ views on the Ukraine war have shifted, with a plurality now saying the US is doing too much to help Ukraine. And half of US adults polled in February said that Israel has gone too far on its war with Gaza. Could Biden’s handling of these key foreign policy issues cost him the election in November?
It’s already clear that foreign policy will play an outsize role in this year’s election. So will immigration, which topped Gallup’s “most important problem” list in February and which is both a foreign policy issue and an economic one.
Catch GZERO World with Ian Bremmer every week at gzeromedia.com/gzeroworld or on US public television. Check local listings.
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Munich Security Conference 2024: What to expect
Ian Bremmer's Quick Take: Hi, everybody. Ian Bremmer here. It is the Munich Security Conference. It's that time of year, yet again, the 60th Munich Security Conference this year. And you would think that that would be like a big anniversary. It's like platinum or diamonds or something very valuable and exciting. And yet the value of the conference is becoming undermined. And it's becoming undermined not because it doesn't matter, but rather because leaders are less committed to it.
And that is a very deep concern. There's no annual theme to this year's conference, but every year they do put out an annual report. Came out a couple of days ago, and the theme this year was “lose-lose” dynamics. In other words, less focus on multilateralism, less focus on collective security, less focus on global cooperation and instead a prioritization of individual gain of countries and even of leaders. And that's not a great backdrop against a incredibly contentious US election, a war between Russia-Ukraine that isn't going very well, certainly not from the perspective of those that are attending the security conference and also a Middle East war that is expanding and threatens to get the Europeans and the Americans more and more involved. A couple of things that are worth paying attention to that may not be getting as much attention outside Germany.
One is that Christoph Heusgen, the chair of the conference and a good friend of mine for many years now, has come out saying that Trump has a point in terms of his strong criticism of NATO nations not meeting their 2% defense goal. And that, of course, especially means Germany, which is the largest economy in Europe. And they've made lots of commitments, but they've got an economic crisis right now, and there are lots of competing demands inside that country that don't focus on security and defense after all. Germany, not a frontline country dealing with Ukraine or Russia a little bit farther back. And you can really see defense spending fall off the farther you get from Russia, unless, of course, you're talking about the United States.
Another thing that's worth paying attention to and it's going to make it a little harder. Germany last year perceived Russia as their number one security threat.This year, Russia's fallen to number seven. Top issues for the Germans, mass migration and radical Islamic terrorism. That is the Munich Security index that they, you know, sort of take surveys of attendees and of participants. And it's very interesting to see that. That's similar to the view that I got at Davos a few weeks ago. And just talking to people around the world outside of these conferences, Ukraine is nowhere close to the level of prioritization these days, even for countries that are pretty close to it, that it was getting 6 months ago, 12 months ago, 24 months ago, and that, of course, is also a very big problem for the Ukrainians, a very big problem for the frontline states like the Estonians and the Poles and the Nordics, who consider this their top priority but having a harder time telling others that that's what really matters. So those are some of the issues we're looking forward to discussing and you'll be hearing from us again real soon.
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How Trump shook up American democracy — & nearly severed ties with Europe
Ian Bremmer discusses US politics and the upcoming midterm elections with DC power couple Susan Glasser and Peter Baker. Glasser is a Washington columnist for the New Yorker, and Baker is the chief White House correspondent for the New York Times. They recently co-authored a new book about the Trump presidency.
The conversation, which for the first time in the show's history was recorded in front of a live studio audience, looks at the key issues in the midterm election and the Trump factor. Baker and Glasser had planned to become foreign correspondents in 2020, but because of Trump's win decided to stay in DC. Even out of office, they say Trump still looms large over the GOP, and continues to influence US politics like an "active crime scene."
The journalists also discuss Vladimir Putin, who was the subject of one of their previous books, and the Trump-Putin bromance; the two men share more in common than might immediately meet the eye.
This interview was featured in a GZERO World episode: US votes as democracy is under attack
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Susan Glasser: Trump damaged US credibility
The Trump presidency might be over (for now), but The New Yorker staff writer Susan Glasser views it as an "active crime scene" because Trump remains influential in current — and perhaps future — US politics.
What's more, some of his most controversial moves are still having ripple effects today. Like threatening to pull out of NATO.
On GZERO World with Ian Bremmer, recorded for the first time in front of a live studio audience, Glasser explains how Trump's disdain for the alliance caused great uncertainty among its other members, even as NATO has become more united than ever before to respond to Russia's war in Ukraine.
She wonders whether they trust America's word anymore. The damage Trump did to US credibility "when it comes to making deals is very, very serious."
Watch the GZERO World episode: US votes as democracy is under attack
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