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Why Mark Carney’s victory won’t heal the US-Canada rift
Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week on World In :60.
Mark Carney leads the Liberals to victory in Canada. So, what's next for the US-Canada relationship?
I think sometimes you have relationship with somebody, and they do something that shocks you, you can't unsee it, I think US-Canada is like that now. I think the damage is permanent. Of course, the interdependence is immense. The dependence on the Canadian side is higher. They're a much smaller country. Their population is right next to the United States. Just a thin strip there. So, it's not like you can suddenly decouple, but there's going to be a lot of de-risking. So, strong efforts, very tough negotiations coming on trade and on security, but also an effort to build infrastructure and ship Canadian resources away from the United States, towards other countries around the world. Medium-term, that's going to be a pretty significant change in how we think about Canada.
The conclave will pick the next pope. How is it relevant for the wider geopolitical landscape?
It's relevant because, increasingly, political leaders do not inspire. So, here you have a population as large as any country, about 1.4 billion Catholics all over the world, just like India, just like China. That's the size of the global population. If the next pope that is picked is someone who is inspirational, is someone that is seen as a 21st century leader that can reflect sensibilities and ideology, values that are not seen from political leaders around the world, in your own countries, then the ability to have an impact on what gets young people out, and motivated, and inspired and engaged in public service or on the streets, and mobilized, and demonstrating becomes significant. So, I do think there's a real opportunity here, but we'll see what it means when we finally see white smoke coming out of the Vatican.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and US President Donald Trump meet while they attend the funeral of Pope Francis at the Vatican on April 26, 2025.
Funeral diplomacy: World leaders push for peace in Rome
Has the pope’s funeral set the stage for peace in Ukraine? At the Vatican on Saturday, US President Donald Trump sat down with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky for a meeting the White House described as “very productive,” and which Zelensky said had the “potential to become historic, if we achieve joint results.” Zelensky also met separately with Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer, and French President Emmanuel Macron, who later claimed that Ukraine was ready for an “unconditional ceasefire”and that it’s “now up to Russia to prove that it truly wants to end this war.”
Trump also threw the ball into Russia’s court – but it landed more like a grenade. After meeting Zelensky, the US President posted to Truth Social that he feared Russian President Vladimir Putin might have been “tapping” – aka, deceiving – him about his willingness to end the war. The evidence? Russia’s continued bombardment of Ukraine, including an attack Thursday that killed 12 people and injured 90. Trump suggested that now Putin must be “dealt with differently,” possibly through banking or secondary sanctions. At the same time, the US president claimed late Sunday that Ukraine was ready to yield Crimea – Zelensky said last week this was a nonstarter.
The response? Hours later, Russia launched a large-scale drone and airstrike assault across Ukraine, killing at least four people and injuring several others. Each country also targeted the other overnight with long-range attacks, though there were no immediate reports of casualties. Mediators are now urging the two sides to the table in what US Secretary of State Marco Rubio described as a “critical week” for resolving the conflict.
Oh and by the way. Though it had been known for some time,North Korea formally acknowledged on Sunday that it has been lending troops to the Russian cause. Separately, the Trump administration is reportedly looking to reopen talks with the North Korean regime, after Trump held a pair of talks with Kim Jong Un during his first term in office.The body of Pope Francis in the coffin exposed in St. Peter's Basilica in Vatican City on April 24, 2025. The funeral will be celebrated on Saturday in St. Peter's Square.
World leaders to bid farewell to Pope Francis – and hold talks on the side
While the Catholic world prepares for the funeral of Pope Francis on Saturday – the service begins at 10 a.m. local time, 4 a.m. ET – certain high-profile attendees may also have other things on their mind. Several world leaders will be on hand to pay their respects to the pontiff, but they could also find themselves involved in bilateral talks.
Who’s on the list? Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni will effectively be the host at the Vatican, which lies just next to Rome. Many of her fellow Western leaders will attend, including French President Emmanuel Macron, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, Ukrainian President Volodomyr Zelensky, UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer, and US President Donald Trump. Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr., who leads the most Catholic country in Asia, will also attend.
South American representation. Argentine President Javier Milei – a former adversary of Francis, his fellow countryman – and Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva plan to cross the Atlantic for the funeral, too.
Glaring omission. Russian President Vladimir Putin won’t attend the funeral, the Kremlin confirmed.
Side hustle. Trump appears to be the principal object of interest for other world leaders. Zelensky has already said that he’d like to speak to the US president at the Vatican, while European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen could meet the American president for the first time since he returned to office, if Meloni gets her way. They won’t have much time, though: Trump plans to spend less than 24 hours in Rome.
Nuns and faithful attend a rosary for Pope Francis, following the death of the pontiff, in St. Peter's square, at the Vatican, April 21, 2025.
World bids farewell to Pope Francis, awaits conclave’s choice
Preparations for the funeral of Pope Francis are underway after the Holy Father died from a cerebral stroke early Monday – as are those for the secretive election to choose his successor.
The funeral date has been set for Saturday. Tens of thousands attended the funeral of Francis’ predecessor, Benedict XVI, in 2022, who had retired in 2013. When John Paul II died in 2005, some four million people paid their respects. This time, leaders from around the globe are expected to attend, including Donald Trump, who is set to become the first sitting US president to attend a papal funeral since 2005.
Francis will be dressed in red regalia, and his ring of office will be ceremonially destroyed, but much of the proceedings will break from tradition: He ordered that he be laid to rest in a simple coffin and interred in Santa Maria Maggiore, not the Vatican grottoes.
Choosing a successor. Within 20 days, Catholic cardinals under the age of 80 (135 out of 252) will gather in the Sistine Chapel to choose the next pope. The conclave – from a Latin root meaning “with keys” – is shut off from the wider world, a measure deemed necessary after medieval interregna lasted months or years due to secular political meddling.
There are no guarantees, but the electoral math points to a potentially short contest: 108 of the 135 eligible elector cardinals were appointed by Francis and may quickly assemble the necessary two-thirds consensus around a successor with similarly progressive values.Pope Francis greets crowds in Saint Peter’s Square on Easter Sunday, April 20, 2025.
Pope Francis, 88, dies hours after greeting Easter crowds
Pope Francis, the 266th pontiff of the Roman Catholic Church, was born Jorge Mario Bergoglio on Dec. 17, 1936, in Buenos Aires, Argentina. He died Monday morning at his residence in the Vatican’s Casa Santa Marta at age 88.
The sad news, which was announced just before 10 a.m. local time, comes just one day after the pontiff – who had been recovering from a severe bout of pneumonia and a prolonged hospital stay – appeared on the balcony of St. Peter’s Basilica on Easter Sunday and offered the “Urbi et Orbi” blessing to the “City [of Rome] and to the World,” with an aide reading the address. He then took to his popemobile and greeted crowds in St. Peter’s Square for the first time since his hospitalization – and now his final public appearance.
Known as the “people’s pope,” Francis’ papacy was defined by his longstanding commitment to social justice. It was the fruit of personal experience: Francis, the son of Italian immigrants, worked as a janitor, nightclub bouncer, chemical technician, and literature teacher before pursuing the priesthood. His common touch and compassion for the less fortunate were hallmarks of his religious career and represented a departure from the more conservative style of his predecessors, John Paul II and Benedict XVI.
Bergoglio entered the Society of Jesus in 1958 and was ordained as a priest in 1969. Lauded for his work with the poorest parishes in Buenos Aires, he was named the city’s archbishop in 1998 before being elevated to cardinal in 2001. In March 2013, Bergoglio made history as the first Jesuit and first Latin American to ascend to the papacy, choosing the name Francis in honor of Saint Francis of Assisi, patron saint of nature and the poor.
As pope, Francis maintained his humble approach, choosing not to wear the papacy’s traditional elaborate vestments. He transformed a Vatican plaza into a “palace for the poor” for the homeless, whom he called the “nobles of the street.” He worked to make the church more inclusive, awarding key roles to women and LGBTQ+ individuals, and even inviting transgender individuals to the Vatican. He championed sustainable development and the fight against climate change, publishing the 2015 encyclical “Laudato si',” which called on humanity to care for our “common home.”
Francis also advocated for the rights of migrants, proclaiming in 2024 that “turning away migrants is a grave sin.” In recent months, he has publicly rebuked US Vice President JD Vance’s characterization of “ordo amoris,” the Catholic Church’s “order of love,” as a justification for President Donald Trump’s deportation policies, but he notably met briefly with Vance on Sunday to share Easter greetings. Francis penned a letter to the bishops of America in which he said “The true ordo amoris that must be promoted is that which we discover by meditating constantly on the parable of the ‘Good Samaritan,’ that is, by meditating on the love that builds a fraternity open to all, without exception.”
Francis’ stances also put him at odds with conservative elements inside the Church. One of his most controversial moves was reversing a decision by Benedict XVI that prioritized the Latin celebration of Mass. It highlighted a division brewing since the 1960s over whether Mass should be translated into local languages, which conservatives feared could dilute the Church’s traditional messaging. And while Francis appointed more cardinals from the Global South than any other pope, not all shared his progressive views: In 2023, a number of African bishops publicly criticized his blessings of individuals in LGBTQ+ unions.
In many ways, Francis was a pope of his time – and that time, like his life, has now ended, extinguishing a progressive light in the world. Vatican officials will now begin paying their final respects to the pope in the Santa Marta chapel, followed by the general public, before Francis is laid to rest and a conclave is held to elect his successor.
Pope Francis is seen here during Holy Week in April 2022.
Pope Francis is in critical condition
“I have been particularly struck by the letters and drawings from children,” the Argentine pontiff posted on social media.
Ever since he was admitted to hospital on Feb. 14 with a complex respiratory tract infection, the 88-year-old religious leader's condition appears to have deteriorated. Roman Catholics from around the world prayed for his health on Sunday, with Archbishop of New York Timothy Dolanadmitting that the pope is “probably close to death.” Swiss Guards have reportedly started rehearsing funeral arrangements.
Building a legacy: Since taking charge in 2013, Francis has pushed the Catholic Church in a more progressive direction on some issues. He has, for example, encouraged his 1.3 billion disciples to be more inclusive of the LGBTQ community, changed the church's stance on capital punishment to “inadmissible” in all instances, and urged countries to receive more migrants.
When the time comes, a papal conclave will choose Francis’ successor. There are currently 138 cardinals in the conclave who can vote, the vast majority of whom were selected by Francis himself, underscoring the legacy he will have on the future of the church.
Pope Francis is seen here at an audience to Managers and Employees of TV2000 and Radio InBlu in Paolo VI Hall at the Vatican.
Hard Numbers: New Catholic bishops in China, Executions in Iran, Presidential runoff in Finland, Peruvian dog goes surfing
2: Pope Francis has appointed two new bishops in China, signaling rapprochement after years of conflict with Beijing. The Chinese government attempted to exercise control over clerical appointments in the country (just wait for the firestorm when the Dalai Lama dies and Beijing tries to name his reincarnation) and agreed to a compromise to jointly appoint bishops with the Vatican in 2018 – only to violate it in 2022 and 2023. Pope Francis’ appointments signal he's ready to turn the other cheek.
67: Tehran seems determined to retain its title as one of the world’s top executioners. On Monday, Iran executed four men it accused of spying for Israel amid historic tensions between Tehran and the Jewish state. But Iran Human Rights challenged the government’s claims, saying the men were Kurdish political prisoners and “denied basic fair trial rights.” There have been 67 executions in Iran so far in 2024, the rights group says.
27.2: Finland will hold a runoff presidential election in February, given no candidate secured at least 50% of the vote in the first round on Sunday. Former Prime Minister Alexander Stubb won the first round with 27.2% of the vote, and he will face off against Pekka Haavisto, a former foreign minister, who earned 25.2% of the vote. Finnish presidents serve as commander-in-chief and play a big role in the country’s foreign policy, which is particularly important for the Nordic country as NATO’s newest member.
4: If there was a competition for the “raddest dog in the world,” a four-year-old Jack Russell terrier named Efruz would probably have a good chance of winning. If you head to San Bartolo, Peru, you might catch the yellow-vested pup wowing beachgoers while surfing with his owner. Right on, Efruz, you rule!
Pope Francis leads the Angelus prayer from his window, at the Vatican, December 17, 2023.
Catholic priests can now bless same-sex couples, with a big caveat
The Vatican on Monday announced that Pope Francis has granted formal approval for Catholic priests to bless same-sex couples – but it must be clear that such blessings are not part of the ritual of marriage or in connection with a civil union.
The new guidance marks yet another departure from long-standing Vatican policy under Pope Francis, who has taken a number of steps to make the Roman Catholic Church and its 1.3 billion members more tolerant toward the LGBTQ community.
As he pushes for more progressive policies, Pope Francis has often clashed with the more conservative wing of the Catholic Church – particularly in the US. In August, the Pope ripped into what he described as the “backward” attitude of conservative American Catholics.
The Catholic Church is not the only Christian institution facing divisions over issues pertaining to the LGBTQ community. A quarter of the United Methodist Church’s congregations in the US – primarily conservative-learning churches – have left the denomination amid debates surrounding its LGBTQ policies. The massive exodus from the United Methodist Church comes as many more liberal congregations ignore the denomination’s official ban on same-sex marriage and on openly LGBTQ clergy.