Trending Now
We have updated our Privacy Policy and Terms of Use for Eurasia Group and its affiliates, including GZERO Media, to clarify the types of data we collect, how we collect it, how we use data and with whom we share data. By using our website you consent to our Terms and Conditions and Privacy Policy, including the transfer of your personal data to the United States from your country of residence, and our use of cookies described in our Cookie Policy.
{{ subpage.title }}
Why Mark Carney’s victory won’t heal the US-Canada rift
Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week on World In :60.
Mark Carney leads the Liberals to victory in Canada. So, what's next for the US-Canada relationship?
I think sometimes you have relationship with somebody, and they do something that shocks you, you can't unsee it, I think US-Canada is like that now. I think the damage is permanent. Of course, the interdependence is immense. The dependence on the Canadian side is higher. They're a much smaller country. Their population is right next to the United States. Just a thin strip there. So, it's not like you can suddenly decouple, but there's going to be a lot of de-risking. So, strong efforts, very tough negotiations coming on trade and on security, but also an effort to build infrastructure and ship Canadian resources away from the United States, towards other countries around the world. Medium-term, that's going to be a pretty significant change in how we think about Canada.
The conclave will pick the next pope. How is it relevant for the wider geopolitical landscape?
It's relevant because, increasingly, political leaders do not inspire. So, here you have a population as large as any country, about 1.4 billion Catholics all over the world, just like India, just like China. That's the size of the global population. If the next pope that is picked is someone who is inspirational, is someone that is seen as a 21st century leader that can reflect sensibilities and ideology, values that are not seen from political leaders around the world, in your own countries, then the ability to have an impact on what gets young people out, and motivated, and inspired and engaged in public service or on the streets, and mobilized, and demonstrating becomes significant. So, I do think there's a real opportunity here, but we'll see what it means when we finally see white smoke coming out of the Vatican.
Pope Francis is seen here during Holy Week in April 2022.
Pope Francis is in critical condition
“I have been particularly struck by the letters and drawings from children,” the Argentine pontiff posted on social media.
Ever since he was admitted to hospital on Feb. 14 with a complex respiratory tract infection, the 88-year-old religious leader's condition appears to have deteriorated. Roman Catholics from around the world prayed for his health on Sunday, with Archbishop of New York Timothy Dolanadmitting that the pope is “probably close to death.” Swiss Guards have reportedly started rehearsing funeral arrangements.
Building a legacy: Since taking charge in 2013, Francis has pushed the Catholic Church in a more progressive direction on some issues. He has, for example, encouraged his 1.3 billion disciples to be more inclusive of the LGBTQ community, changed the church's stance on capital punishment to “inadmissible” in all instances, and urged countries to receive more migrants.
When the time comes, a papal conclave will choose Francis’ successor. There are currently 138 cardinals in the conclave who can vote, the vast majority of whom were selected by Francis himself, underscoring the legacy he will have on the future of the church.
Elon Musk waves to the crowd before former President Donald Trump speaks at a campaign rally in Butler, Pa., on Oct. 5, 2024.
Hard Numbers: Musk becomes GOP mega-donor, Biden announces new military aid for Ukraine, Mysterious white blobs turn up on Canadian beaches, Archdiocese of LA to pay millions in childhood sexual abuse settlement
75 million: Elon Musk, the world’s richest person, gave $75 million to America PAC — a pro-Trump super PAC that he established back in May — across July and September, a campaign finance filing showed on Tuesday. This makes Musk, who endorsed former President Donald Trump in July and has since appeared on the campaign trail with him, a Republican mega-donor.
425 million: President Joe Biden announced a new $425 million military aid package for Ukraine on Wednesday and spoke with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. The package includes “additional air defense capability, air-to-ground munitions, armored vehicles, and critical munitions to meet Ukraine’s urgent needs,” the White House said, adding that Zelensky spoke with the president about his victory plan and “tasked their teams to engage in further consultations on next steps.”
40,000: In news that is both gross and captivating, mysterious white blobs are washing up on beaches in Newfoundland. So far, marine scientists seem stumped, and authorities are investigating the blobs’ origins and whether they’re safe to touch. A Facebook group of roughly 40,000 people, Beachcombers of Newfoundland and Labrador, helped bring attention to these blobs of unknown origin.
880 million: The Archdiocese of Los Angeles — the largest Catholic dioceses in the US — is paying $880 million in a childhood sexual abuse settlement involving over 1,300 claims, including some that go back to the 1940s. “I am sorry for every one of these incidents, from the bottom of my heart,” Archbishop José H. Gomez wrote in a letter. “My hope is that this settlement will provide some measure of healing.”Claudia Sheinbaum (c), candidate for the presidency of Mexico from the MORENA party, is visiting the facilities of the Tlatelolco Cultural Center in Mexico City to sign the National Commitment for Peace, organized by the Society of Jesus in Mexico and the Mexican Episcopate Conference, on March 11, 2024.
Mexico’s presidential front-runner and the politics of violent crime
In June 2022, a man fleeing a drug gang took refuge inside a church in a remote region of northern Mexico. Armed men followed him into the church, killed him, and murdered two Jesuit priests who tried to intervene.
That event has since strained relations between the Catholic Church and President Andres Manuel López Obrador, whom church leaders blame for failing to contain the country’s still-high rates of violent crime.
López Obrador’s presidency will end – he’s term-limited – later this year following an election to choose his successor. The popular leader has endorsed former Mexico City Mayor Claudia Sheinbaum of his Morena party, and she is the heavy favorite in June’s election.
This week, all three presidential candidates signed a document entitled “Commitment for Peace,” drafted by Mexico’s Roman Catholic leadership, that calls for new efforts to lower the country’s violent crime rate. But Sheinbaum, beating back implicit criticism of López Obrador’s failure on the issue, noted that she disagreed with the church’s claim that Mexico suffers a “profound crisis of violence.”
López Obrador’s security minister reported in January that the country’s homicide rate fell 10.8% in 2023, but Mexico's 29,675 murders last year still averaged 81 per day. The challenge of violent crime, and the delicate political dance around it, will continue.Santa does his holiday shopping
Hard Numbers: Santa sees holiday sales surge, Ukraine scores a win at sea, Catholic monasteries busy brewin’ beer, Opposition candidates cry fraud in Congo
360: As the Ukraine War grinds into a stalemate on land, at sea Kyiv scored a win against Moscow’s Black Sea Fleet when it destroyed a 360 foot warship at port in Russian-occupied Crimea. The successful attack came as Ukrainian officials acknowledged that they had lost the month-long battle to maintain control of the eastern city of Marinka.
13: The Christmas season is a busy time for Catholic monasteries around the world, but especially for 13 Trappist monasteries across Europe, responsible for producing the world’s supply of Trappist beer. Trappist beer – often lauded as the best, as well as the holiest, beer – flies off the monastery’s shelves at Christmas, with the sole UK monastery selling nearly a third of the 105,000 liters it produces each year over the holiday season.
18: The 18 opposition candidates in Democratic Republic of Congo’s presidential election plan to march on the capital city, Kinshasa, on Wednesday over alleged election fraud. Although the official results won’t be released until December 31st, early results show the incumbent Felix Tshisekedi far ahead of his challengers, winning almost 79% of the 6.1 million votes counted so far.Pope Francis leads the Angelus prayer from his window, at the Vatican, December 17, 2023.
Catholic priests can now bless same-sex couples, with a big caveat
The Vatican on Monday announced that Pope Francis has granted formal approval for Catholic priests to bless same-sex couples – but it must be clear that such blessings are not part of the ritual of marriage or in connection with a civil union.
The new guidance marks yet another departure from long-standing Vatican policy under Pope Francis, who has taken a number of steps to make the Roman Catholic Church and its 1.3 billion members more tolerant toward the LGBTQ community.
As he pushes for more progressive policies, Pope Francis has often clashed with the more conservative wing of the Catholic Church – particularly in the US. In August, the Pope ripped into what he described as the “backward” attitude of conservative American Catholics.
The Catholic Church is not the only Christian institution facing divisions over issues pertaining to the LGBTQ community. A quarter of the United Methodist Church’s congregations in the US – primarily conservative-learning churches – have left the denomination amid debates surrounding its LGBTQ policies. The massive exodus from the United Methodist Church comes as many more liberal congregations ignore the denomination’s official ban on same-sex marriage and on openly LGBTQ clergy.
Pope Francis leads an ecumenical prayer vigil in Saint Peter’s square at the Vatican
The times they are a-changin’ – is the Catholic Church?
On Wednesday, Pope Francis is convening a massive meeting of Church officials and ordinary Catholic faithful — including women for the first time ever — to discuss and vote on how the Church can find common ground on a number of divisive issues, from LGBTQ+ recognition to divorce to the role of women. It’s the first phase of a two-year process, which will culminate in another summit in Rome next year.
Why this is a big deal: Catholicism is the largest Christian denomination, with over 1.3 billion adherents, and it claims direct roots to Jesus Christ through his disciple Peter, considered the first Pope. The Church’s size and global nature mean its adherents hold a vast array of political and cultural beliefs, many of which are at loggerheads in the secular world. But the Church’s mission to serve all is embedded in the name: The Greek Katholikos literally means “universal.”
Francis’ leadership on social issues stands in stark contrast to that of his predecessor, Pope Benedict XVI. Benedict was among the most conservative Church leaders in recent memory, while Francis has consistently sought ways to reconcile evolving social mores with Catholic doctrine, though the two notably maintained a close relationship.
Inclusivity in focus: Church officials canvassed congregations for two years to set the agenda items, and the thread running through them is how to welcome Catholics whose backgrounds may once have precluded them from participating in worship. The subject of offering communion to people who have divorced their spouses will play a major role, as will discussions over whether women may hold some positions in the church, such as deacons.
One agenda item includes the bishops in Germany and Belgium who have been vocal about wanting representation for LGBTQ+ members and have begun allowing priests to bless same-sex couples. Societies where Catholicism is growing fastest, mostly in Africa and Asia, tend to take a more conservative view, as do traditionalists in Western countries. Making everyone happy will be tough and may come down to devilish details. Are the people involved blessed, but not the union itself, for example?
Pope Francis offered little clarity on his position, telling bishops they should treat requests for blessings with “pastoral charity” while reaffirming that he considered same-sex marriage “objectively sinful.”
Hashing it all out, which Francis is dedicated to doing, will take time – and critics accuse him of using calls for discussion as a means of delaying tough decisions. Formally, this assembly is titled a “Synod on Synodality” (theologian speak for a meeting about how we have meetings), which hints at the aspect of this assembly that may prove the most transformative: among the most representative body of Catholics ever assembled, both laypeople and clerics, discussing and voting on the future of their shared faith.
Israeli protesters demonstrate against the right-wing government outside the Knesset in Jerusalem.
Hard Numbers: “Anarchy” in Israel, Michigan State University shooting, the plight of Black mothers and babies, alleged abuses in Portuguese Catholic Church, the new promised land for Scotch
90,000: As Israel’s Knesset began a contentious debate over Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s proposed judicial reforms on Monday, a whopping 90,000 people hit the streets of Jerusalem to protest against the measures, with another 100,000 joining demonstrations nationwide. Netanyahu accused his opponents of “pushing the country to anarchy.” Here’s more from GZERO on the back story.
3: At least three people were killed, and five injured, when a gunman opened fire at Michigan State University on Monday night. The assailant then turned the gun on himself. It is the latest in a string of mass shootings on college campuses and schools across the country in recent years.
87: New data on US childbirths shows that, even when correcting for income, Black mothers and their babies fare worse than white ones. The infant mortality rate for rich Black mothers is 87 points higher than that for poor White mothers, according to a decade-long study, which was conducted in California.
4,815: A new report commissioned by the Portuguese Catholic Church alleges that its priests and other authority figures sexually abused at least 4,815 children over the past seven decades. The investigating commission says this number is merely the “tip of the iceberg.” But under Portuguese law, only 25 of those cases are recent enough to be prosecuted.
219 million: India is now the world’s leading importer of Scotch by volume, taking in 219 million bottles of the stuff last year. An increase of some 60% over 2021 helped to push India past France for the top spot. Still, billion-strong India remains a tiny part of the global scotch market — the industry hopes that a long-awaited UK-India trade deal could help to crack things open more.